Highest Population Attributable Fraction Research Articles

Low Lung Function Is Associated with High Population Attributable Fraction for Cardiovascular Mortality.

Chronic lung diseases are associated with increased risk of mortality due to coronary heart disease (CHD). Nonetheless, the population attributable fraction (PAF) of lung function impairment relative to other established cardiovascular risk factors is unclear. To evaluate the PAF of low lung function for CHD mortality Methods: We harmonized and pooled lung function and clinical data across 8 US general population cohorts. Impaired lung function was defined as FEV1 and/or FVC ≤95% predicted on baseline spirometry. The association between CHD mortality and risk factors was assessed using cause-specific proportional hazards and Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards models, treating non-CHD mortality as a competing risk. Models were adjusted for lung function as well as age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, body mass index, smoking status, pack-years of smoking, diabetes mellitus, HDL, and high LDL (≥130 mg/dl). PAF was calculated as the relative change in the average absolute risk of ten-year CHD mortality by elimination of lung function lower than 95% predicted. Among 35143 participants, 1844 of 13174 (14.0%) deaths were due to CHD. Compared to FEV1pp >95%, the sub-distribution adjusted hazards ratio (95%CI) for low FEV1pp was 1.30 (1.18-1.44). The PAF for FEV1pp≤95% was 12%, ranking low FEV1 third in the list of PAF for CHD mortality, after hypertension and diabetes. Low FEV1pp ranked second in the subgroup of active smokers (PAF 14%), after hypertension. Low lung function, even in the range considered clinically normal, ranks high in the list of attributable risk factors for CHD mortality and should be considered in cardiovascular risk stratification.

Association of Prepregnancy Cardiometabolic Health With Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy Among Historically Underrepresented Groups in the United States.

Prepregnancy diabetes and obesity are associated with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs). However, the proportion of cases of HDP in the population explained by diabetes and obesity (population attributable fraction), especially among American Indian and Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, is not well characterized. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of data on individuals with a live singleton birth from the US National Vital Statistics System between 2016 and 2019. We used adjusted logistic regression to estimate the prevalence odds ratios of HDPs and tested interaction for race and ethnicity. We calculated the population attributable fraction for the effect of obesity and diabetes on HDPs. Among 13 201 338 birthing individuals, (mean age, 29±6 years), 7% had HDP. The prevalence of HDP was highest among American Indian and Alaska Native individuals (9.1%). Prepregnancy diabetes (prevalence odds ratio, 2.63 [95% CI, 2.59-2.67]) and obesity (prevalence odds ratio, 2.95 [95% CI, 2.93-2.97]) were associated with HDPs. Compared with non-Hispanic White individuals, the association of diabetes with HDPs was strongest among Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (prevalence odds ratio, 3.05 [95% CI, 2.48-3.77]), and the association of obesity with HDP was strongest among Asian individuals (prevalence odds ratio, 3.44 [95% CI, 3.35-3.54]; all P for interaction <0.05). Population attributable fractions for diabetes and obesity were highest among Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander individuals (diabetes, 3.7% [95% CI, 3.3%-4.0%]; and obesity, 45% [95% CI, 41.9%-47.8%]). Prepregnancy diabetes and obesity are associated with HDP across all racial and ethnic groups. Diabetes and obesity have highest population attributable fractions among Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander individuals and should be aggressively targeted during childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood to reduce risk of HDPs.

Global burden of oral cancer in 2022 attributable to smokeless tobacco and areca nut consumption: a population attributable fraction analysis

Consuming products that contain smokeless tobacco or areca nut increases the risk of oral cancer. We aimed to estimate the burden of oral cancer attributable to smokeless tobacco or areca nut consumption globally and by type of smokeless tobacco or areca nut product in four major consuming countries. We calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) using prevalence of current use of smokeless tobacco or areca nut products from national surveys and corresponding risks of oral cancer from the literature. We applied PAFs to national estimates of oral cancer incidence in 2022 from the Global Cancer Observatory's Cancer Today database to obtain cases attributable to smokeless tobacco or areca nut consumption. We modelled 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using Monte Carlo simulations. Globally, an estimated 120 200 (95% UI 115 300-124 300) cases of oral cancer diagnosed in 2022 were attributable to smokeless tobacco or areca nut consumption, accounting for 30·8% (95% UI 29·6-31·9) of all oral cancer cases (120 200 of 389 800). An estimated 77% of attributable cases were among male patients (92 600 cases, 95% UI 88 000-96 500) and 23% were among female patients (27 600 cases, 26 000-29 000). Regions with the highest PAFs were Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia (78·6%, 95% UI 74·4-80·5), southcentral Asia (57·5%, 54·8-59·5), and southeastern Asia (19·8%, 19·0-20·6). Lower-middle-income countries represented 90·2% of the world total attributable cases (108 400 cases, 95% UI 103 400-112 200). Our findings suggest that one in three cases of oral cancer globally are attributable to smokeless tobacco or areca nut consumption, and could be prevented through smokeless tobacco and areca nut control. Global cancer control efforts must incorporate further measures to reduce smokeless tobacco and areca nut consumption in populations with the largest attributable burden. French National Cancer Institute.

Risk factors and population attributable fractions for displaced abomasum in Iranian dairy cattle: a retrospective analysis of field data.

Displaced abomasum (DA) usually occurs in the early postpartum period and can negatively affect production and welfare of dairy cows. The objective of this research was to identify predictors for the occurrence of DA in Iranian Holsteins. Therefore, we analyzed data collected from six commercial dairy farms in Iran (calving between January 2011 and October 2020). We used generalized linear mixed-effects model to identify predictors based on estimates of odds ratios (ORs). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were then calculated, as these are expected to more accurately prioritize risk factors on population level by considering the association between the risk factor and the its prevalence in the population. Over the 6 herds, the average percentage of DA was 2.5% (range 1.1-3.4% across herds). The results showed that calving during winter increased the odds of DA 1.4 times. Cows with high milk fat-to-protein ratio before the occurrence of disease, abnormal calving (including dystocia, stillbirth, and twinning) and long pregnancy length (≥ 280 d) showed increased odds of DA with ORs of 1.52, 1.31 and 1.30, respectively. Milk yield was also positively associated with DA in next lactation. Among the modifiable predictors of DA, the highest PAF was for the ratio of milk fat-to-protein (11.0%); other PAFs were retained placenta (4.1%), metritis (3.1%), abnormal calving (2.7%), and ketosis (2.7%). The results of the present study can provide managers with the a helpful strategy to reduce the occurrence of DA.

Association of accelerometer-derived physical activity with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among individuals with cardiovascular diseases: A prospective cohort study.

To investigate the association of accelerometer-measured intensity-specific physical activity (PA) with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this prospective cohort study, 8,024 individuals with pre-existing CVD (mean age: 66.6 years, female: 34.1%) from the UK Biobank had their PA measured using wrist-worn accelerometers over a 7-day period in 2013-2015. All-cause, cancer, and CVD mortality was ascertained from death registries. Cox regression modelling and restricted cubic splines were used to assess the associations. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were used to estimate the proportion of preventable deaths if more PA were undertaken. During an average of 6.8 years of follow-up, 691 deaths (273 from cancer and 219 from CVD) were recorded. An inverse non-linear association was found between PA duration and all-cause mortality risk, irrespective of PA intensity. The hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality plateaued at 1800 minutes/week for light-intensity PA (LPA), 320 minutes/week for moderate-intensity PA (MPA) and 15 minutes/week for vigorous-intensity PA (VPA). The highest quartile of PA associated lower risks for all-cause mortality, with HRs of 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.51-0.79), 0.42 (0.33-0.54) and 0.47 (0.37-0.60) for LPA, MPA, and VPA, respectively. Similar associations were observed for cancer and CVD mortality. Additionally, the highest PAF were noted for VPA, followed by MPA. We found an inverse non-linear association between all intensities of PA (LPA, MPA, VPA, and MVPA) and mortality risk in CVD patients using accelerometer-derived data, but with larger magnitude of the associations than that in previous studies based on self-reported PA.

Determinants of mortality status and population attributable risk fractions of the North West Province, South African site of the international PURE study

BackgroundMortality data and comparative risk assessments from sub-Saharan Africa are limited. There is an urgent need for high quality population health surveys to be conducted, to improve the national health surveillance system. Our aim was to perform a comparative risk assesment and report on the mortality status and cause of death data of participants from a South African site of the international Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study.Methods1 921 Black participants were included, with a median observational time of 13 years resulting in 21 525 person-years. We performed a comparative risk assessment considering four health status domains: locality (rural vs. urban), socio-economic status (SES) (education and employment), lifestyle factors (physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption) and prevalent diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension). Next, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated to determine the mortality risk attributable to modifiable determinants.Results577 all-cause deaths occurred. Infectious diseases (28.1% of all deaths) were the most frequent cause of death, followed by cardiovascular disease (CVD) (22.4%), respiratory diseases (11.6%) and cancer (11.1%). The three main contributors to all-cause mortality were HIV infection, high SES and being underweight. HIV infection and underweight were the main contributors to infectious disease mortality and hypertension, the urban environment, and physical inactivity to CVD mortality. HIV had the highest PAF, followed by physical inactivity, alcohol and tobacco use and hypertension (for CVD mortality).ConclusionThis African population suffers from a quadruple burden of disease. Urban locality, high SES, prevalent disease (HIV and hypertension) and lifestyle factors (physical inactivity, tobacco and alcohol use) all contributed in varying degrees to all-cause and cause-specific mortalities. Our data confirm the public health importance of addressing HIV and hypertension, but also highlights the importance of physical inactivity, tobacco use and alcohol consumption as focal points for public health strategies to produce the most efficient mortality reduction outcomes.

Proportion of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in Peru

BackgroundLimited evidence exists on the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancer cases and deaths in Latin America. In Peru several studies have been published regarding the PAF of various risk factors and their associated diseases. The objective of this study was to estimate the fraction of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in Peru in 2018, before the COVID-19 pandemic in the population of 15 years old and older.MethodsAn ecological study was conducted using the prevalence of exposure of the Peruvian population to modifiable risk factors for cancer, the relative risk associated with each factor, and the number of cancer cases and deaths in 2018 as inputs. We used the Parkin formula with a Montecarlo statistical simulation model to calculate the PAF and confidence intervals. The number of new cancer cases and deaths attributed to each risk factor was determined by multiplying the number of cases and deaths in each gender by the PAF of each risk factor.FindingsIn Peru, 38.5% of new cases (34.5% in men and 42% in women) and 43.4% of cancer-related deaths (43.4% in men and 43.4% in women) were attributable to modifiable risk factors. The number of cancers attributable was 25,308 (10,439 in men and 14,869 in women) and the number of deaths attributable to cancer was 14,839 (6,953 in men and 7,886 in women). The predominant modifiable risk factors contributing to the highest number of cases and deaths were HPV infection (4,563 cases, 2,409 deaths), current tobacco use (3,348 cases, 2,180 deaths), and helicobacter pylori infection (2,677 cases, 1,873 deaths). Among the risk factors, oncogenic infections constituted the group with the highest PAF (16.6% for cases, 19.2% for deaths) followed by other unhealthy lifestyle factors (14.2% for cases, 16.7% for deaths), tobacco (7.2% for cases, 7.2% for deaths) and ultraviolet radiation (0.5% for cases, 0.3% for deaths).ConclusionsPrior to the COVID-19 pandemic, 38.5% of cancer cases and 43.4% of cancer-related deaths in Peru were linked to modifiable risk factors in the population of 15 years old and older. Most preventable cancer cases and deaths were related to oncogenic infections, primarily caused by HPV and helicobacter pylori, followed by tobacco and obesity.

Blood pressure classification using the Japanese Society of Hypertension Guidelines for the Management of Hypertension and cardiovascular events among young to middle-aged working adults.

The Japanese Society of Hypertension updated guidelines for hypertension management (JSH2019), changing the blood pressure (BP) classification. However, evidence is sparse regarding the association of the classification with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events among young to middle-aged workers in Japan. We examined this issue using longitudinal data from Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study with a prospective cohort design. Participants were 81,876 workers (aged 20-64 years) without taking antihypertensive medication at baseline. BP in 2011 or 2010 was used as exposure. CVD events that occurred from 2012 to 2021 were retrieved from a within-study registry. Cox regression was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of CVD events. During 0.5 million person-years of follow-up, 334 cardiovascular events, 75 cardiovascular deaths, and 322 all-cause deaths were documented. Compared with normal BP (systolic BP [SBP] < 120 mmHg and diastolic BP [DBP] < 80 mmHg), multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of cardiovascular events were 1.98 (1.49-2.65), 2.10 (1.58-2.77), 3.48 (2.33-5.19), 4.12 (2.22-7.64), and 7.81 (3.99-15.30) for high normal BP (SBP120-129 mmHg and DBP < 80 mmHg), elevated BP (SBP130-139 mmHg and/or DBP80-89 mmHg), stage 1 hypertension (SBP140-159 mmHg and DBP90-99 mmHg), stage 2 hypertension (SBP160-179 mmHg and/or DBP100-109 mmHg), and stage 3 hypertension (SBP ≥ 180 mmHg and/or DBP ≥ 110 mmHg), respectively. The highest population attributable fraction was observed in elevated BP (17.8%), followed by stage 1 hypertension (14.1%). The present data suggest that JSH2019 may help identify Japanese workers at a higher cardiovascular risk.

A framework for national-level prevention initiatives in Indian schools: A risk reduction approach

India's mental health policies predominantly prioritize treatment and rehabilitation. While acknowledging the significance of youth well-being, the initiatives undertaken are fragmented, lacking comprehensive data on reach and utilization. Mounting evidence supports the preventability of mental illnesses, highlighting the cost-effectiveness of prevention initiatives, particularly within school-based programs. This paper aims to delineate a preventive framework centered on schools, employing the six-step OrigAMI (Origins of Adult Mental Illnesses) model. This model targets modifiable risk factors to stop the development of mental illnesses. Each step of this model is dissected and examined within the context of the school environment, elucidating the unique and influential role that educational institutions can undertake in preventive initiatives in India. In the initial step, the paper identifies modifiable risk factors in children and adolescents that can be addressed within the school environment. The second and third steps involve pinpointing the target demographic and utilizing data from comprehensive reviews of mental health initiatives. The fourth and fifth steps delineate the workforce structure, advocating for task shifting to non-specialists, engaging school stakeholders and parents, and establishing a systematic workforce framework. The final step delves into policy implications, exploring the potential to reduce the prevalence of mental illness by focusing on risk factors with a high Population Attributable Fraction. This section also contrasts the proposed approach in terms of expenditure against the current budget allocations. The paper culminates with a recommendation to integrate these preventive programs into existing healthcare policies, positioning schools as central to these prevention efforts. The integration of prevention programs into healthcare policies aims to reduce prevalence rates and alleviate the burden on the healthcare system.

Differences between men and women in the prevalence of frailty and associated factors among older adults: evidence from ELSI-Brazil

Based on a national representative sample of the population aged 50 years or older, this study aimed to estimate the prevalence of frailty among men and women, identify associated sociodemographic and health factors, and estimate the population attributable fraction. Data from the second wave (2019-2021) of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI-Brazil) were used. Frailty was classified based on the number of positive items among unintentional weight loss, exhaustion, low level of physical activity, slow gait, and weakness. The main analyses were based on multinomial logistic regression stratified by sex. The prevalence of frailty was lower in men (8.6%; 95%CI: 6.9; 10.7) than in women (11.9%; 95%CI: 9.6; 14.8), with the most frequent item being the low level of physical activity in both. Age and schooling level were the sociodemographic factors associated with pre-frailty and fragility among men and women. The population attributable fraction was different for frailty between genders. In men, the highest population attributable fraction was due to not having a partner (23.5%; 95%CI: 7.7; 39.2) and low schooling level (18.2%; 95%CI: 6.6; 29,7). In women, higher population attributable fraction values were due to memory deficit (17.1%; 95%CI: 7.6; 26.6), vision deficit (13.4%; 95%CI: 5.1; 21.7), and diabetes mellitus (11.4%; 95%CI: 4.6; 18,1). Similar population attributable fraction levels were observed for heart disease (8.9%; 95%CI: 3.8; 14.1 in women and 8.8%; 95%CI: 2.0; 15.6 in men). Strategies aimed at physical activity have the potential to prevent frailty in both men and women, and the prevention of chronic conditions is more important in women.

Sex difference in incidence and risk factors of hospitalization for heart failure, and subsequent mortality: findings from the China PEACE million persons project.

Epidemiological study of sex differences in incidence and risk factors of heart failure (HF), and subsequent mortality attributed to HF in the Chinese general population is lacking. This study aims to assess the sex differences in the incidence and risk factors of hospitalization for HF and evaluate the sex differences in population attributable fractions (PAFs) for the subsequent mortality among the general population. Data were from a sub-cohort of the Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Million Persons Project in China. Fine and Gray models were conducted to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) accounting for the competing risk of all-cause mortality. Propensity score matching analysis and subgroup analyses were used to verify the robustness of the results. Adjusted PAFs of HF for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were evaluated by sex. Of the 102,278 participants, 60.5% were women, and the mean age was 54.3 years. After a median follow-up of 3.52 years, 1588 cases of hospitalization for HF were identified. After adjusting for the covariates, women had 31% (95% CI: 0.61-0.79) lower risk for HF than men. The results were consistent in the propensity score matching cohort and across all subgroup analyses (all P sex-subgroups interaction > 0.05). Although women were associated with a lower risk of HF, they had a higher PAF (24.2%, 95% CI: 16.0-31.6) for subsequent cardiovascular mortality than men (16.5%, 95% CI: 11.3-21.5). Several significant differences in risk factors for HF were noted between sexes. In the southern Chinese population, women had a lower risk of HF but had a higher cardiovascular mortality fraction attributed to HF than men. Sex-specific preventative strategies and management for HF should be warranted.

Sex difference in incidence, risk factors of heart failure and subsequent mortality in general population: Results from the China PEACE million persons project

Abstract Background Epidemiological study of sex differences in incidence and risk factors of heart failure (HF), and subsequent mortality attributed to HF in the Chinese general population is lacking. Purpose To assess the sex differences in the incidence and risk factors of HF, and evaluate the population attributable fractions (PAFs) for the subsequent mortality among the Chinese general population. Methods Data were from a sub-cohort of the Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events (PEACE) Million Persons Project in Southern China. Between 2016 and 2020, 102,358 community residents aged 35 to 75 from 8 sites in Guangdong Province were screened, and 80 individuals with a history of HF were excluded. Participants were divided into two groups by sex and the study outcome was HF incidence. Fine and Gray models were conducted to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) accounting for the competing risk of all-cause mortality. Propensity score matching analysis and subgroup analyses were used to verify the robustness of the results. Adjusted PAFs of HF for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were evaluated by sex. Results Of the 102,278 participants, 60.5% were women, and the mean age was 54.3 years. Compared with men, women were younger and less likely to smoke and drink, and had lower socioeconomic status and lower comorbid burdens. After a median follow-up of 3.52 years (343758 person-years), 1588 cases of incident HF (4.62 (95% CI: 4.40-4.85) per 1000 person-year) were identified. Compared with men (6.37 (95% CI: 5.95-6.80) per 1000 person-year), women had a lower incidence rate of HF (3.49 (95% CI: 3.24-3.75) per 1000 person-year, P&amp;lt;0.001). After adjusting for the covariates, women had 31% (95% CI: 0.61-0.79) lower risk for HF than men. The results were consistent in the propensity score matching cohort and across all subgroup analyses (all P sex-subgroups interaction &amp;gt;0.05). Although female was associated with a lower risk of HF, women had a higher PAF (24.2, 95% CI: 16.0-31.6) for subsequent cardiovascular mortality than men (16.5, 9%% CI: 11.3-21.5). Several significant differences in modifiable risk factors for HF were also noted between sexes. Conclusion In the Chinese general population, women were associated with a lower risk of HF but they have a higher cardiovascular mortality fraction attributed to HF than men. Sex-specific prevention strategies and therapies for HF should be warranted in the future.Graphic AbstractHF incidence across subgroups by sexes

Abstract 16988: Conventional and Regionally Distinctive Risk Factors for First-Onset Myocardial Infarction in Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Risk of Acute Vascular Events (BRAVE) Study

Background: South Asians may be particularly susceptible to premature myocardial infarction (MI) owing both to classic cardiovascular risk factors and distinctive practices more common in South Asian populations. Hypothesis: Identifying modifiable risk factors for MI in South Asian populations should inform prevention strategies. Goal: To study conventional risk factors and several distinctive South Asian characteristics and practices in relation to the likelihood of first-ever MI in Bangladesh. Methods: In a case-control study involving 8,133 first MI cases and 8,122 controls, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) for MI (adjusted, when appropriate, for age, sex, smoking status, history of diabetes, history of hypertension, family history of MI, and LDL-cholesterol) and assessed their potential public health impact using population attributable fractions (PAFs). Results: The mean (SD) age of first MI was 53 (11) years. Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) were 2.75 (2.53-2.99) for cigarette smoking, 2.33 (2.08-2.60) for parental history of MI, 2.26 (2.07-2.48) for history of hypertension, 1.79 (1.61-1.98) for history of diabetes, and 1.61 (1.55-1.67) per 1-SD higher LDL-cholesterol. The highest PAFs (95% CIs) were for current cigarette smoking (48.9% [46.1%-51.6%]), higher LDL-cholesterol (32.4% [30.2%-34.4%]) and history of hypertension (14.7% [13.2%-16.1%]). As for regionally distinctive practices, ORs were 4.05 (3.15-5.21) with biri smoking, 2.04 (1.48-2.81) with chewing tobacco, and 1.26 (1.05-1.51) with parental history of first cousin marriage. Conclusion: In a large case-control study, we confirmed the relevance of several conventional risk factors to risk of first-onset MI in the Bangladesh population. We also identified significant associations with MI of practices distinctive to South Asian populations, including indigenous modes of tobacco consumption and parental first-cousin marriage, apparently independent of conventional risk factors. These findings should help identify opportunities for cardiovascular disease prevention in South Asia that embrace both conventional and regionally distinctive risk factors.

Ranking age-specific modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease and mortality: evidence from a population-based longitudinal study

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a paramount contemporary health challenge. This study examined age-specific effects of 14 risk factors on CVD and mortality in different age groups. We analyzed data from 226,759 CVD-free participants aged 40 years and older in the UK Biobank during the period from baseline time (2006-2010) to September 30, 2021. The primary CVD outcome was a composite of incident coronary artery disease, heart failure, and stroke. We calculated age-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and population-attributable fractions (PAF) for CVD and mortality associated with 14 potentially modifiable risk factors. During 12.17-year follow-up, 23,838 incident CVD cases and 11,949 deaths occurred. Age-specific disparities were observed in the risk factors contributing to CVD, and the overall PAF declined with age (PAF of 56.53% in middle-age; 49.78% in quinquagenarian; 42.45% in the elderly). Metabolic factors had the highest PAF in each age group, with hypertension (14.04% of the PAF) and abdominal obesity (9.58% of the PAF) being prominent. Behavioral factors had the highest PAF in the middle-aged group (10.68% of the PAF), and smoking was the leading behavioral factor in all age groups. In socioeconomic and psychosocial risk clusters, low income contributed most among middle-aged (3.74% of the PAF) and elderly groups (3.66% of the PAF), while less education accounted more PAF for quinquagenarian group (4.46% of the PAF). Similar age-specific patterns were observed for cardiovascular subtypes and mortality. A large fraction of CVD cases and deaths were associated with modifiable risk factors in all age groups. Targeted efforts should focus on the most impactful risk factors, as well as age-specific modifiable risk factors. These findings may inform the development of more precise medical strategies to prevent and manage CVD and related mortality. The work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number: INV-016826 to Hualiang Lin) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 82373534 to Hualiang Lin).

Causes of hypercapnic respiratory failure: a population-based case-control study

ObjectiveThere are no population-based data on the relative importance of specific causes of hypercapnic respiratory failure (HRF). We sought to quantify the associations between hospitalisation with HRF and potential antecedent causes including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), obstructive sleep apnea, and congestive cardiac failure. We used data on the prevalence of these conditions to estimate the population attributable fraction for each cause.MethodsA case–control study was conducted among residents aged ≥ 40 years from the Liverpool local government area in Sydney, Australia. Cases were identified from hospital records based on PaCO2 > 45 mmHg. Controls were randomly selected from the study population using a cluster sampling design. We collected self-reported data on medication use and performed spirometry, limited-channel sleep studies, venous sampling for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels, and sniff nasal inspiratory pressure (SNIP) measurements. Logistic regression analyses were performed using directed acyclic graphs to identify covariates.ResultsWe recruited 42 cases and 105 controls. HRF was strongly associated with post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction, elevated NT-proBNP levels, reduced SNIP measurements and self-reported opioid medication use. There were no differences in the apnoea-hypopnea index or oxygen desaturation index between groups. COPD had the highest population attributable fraction (42%, 95% confidence interval 18% to 59%).ConclusionsCOPD, congestive cardiac failure, and self-reported use of opioid medications, but not obstructive sleep apnea, are important causes of HRF among adults over 40 years old. No single cause accounts for the majority of cases based on the population attributable fraction.

Global burden of non-communicable chronic diseases associated with a diet low in fruits from 1990 to 2019.

The aim of this study was to assess the global burden of disease from non-communicable chronic diseases (NCD) due to diet low in fruits from 1990 to 2019. Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, the global burden of disease due to diet low in fruits was analyzed for each country or region, disaggregated by disease type, age, sex, and year. The number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), population attributable fraction (PAF), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) were calculated, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to describe trends in ASMR and ASDR from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to diet low in fruits increased by 31.5 and 27.4%, respectively. Among the tertiary diseases, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes and kidney disease were the top three contributors to the global increase in deaths and DALYs. However, both ASMR and ASDR showed a decreasing trend. The fastest decline in ASMR and ASDR was in stroke, with AAPC of -2.13 (95% CI: -2.22, -2.05, p < 0.05) and -0.56 (95% CI: -0.62, -0.51, p < 0.05), respectively. For GBD regions, high PAF occurred mainly in South Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. Age-specific PAF for stroke and ischemic heart disease death attributable to diet low in fruits was significantly negatively associated with age. Diet low in fruits related ASMR and ASDR showed an M-shaped relationship with the socio-demographic index (SDI), but with an overall decreasing trend. The number of deaths and DALYs due to diet low in fruits continues to increase. Therefore, early nutritional interventions should be implemented by the relevant authorities to reduce the burden of diseases caused by diet low in fruits.

Contribution of Preterm Birth to Mortality Among Neonates With Birth Defects

ABSTRACT Birth defects are an important cause of death among infants who die within their first year. Among other complications associated with birth defects, mothers are at higher risk for preterm delivery, which is also associated with infant mortality. Some previous research has shown that in a population of infants with birth defects, those born at term are 3 to 4 times more likely to survive as their preterm peers. This study aimed to clarify the relationship between birth defects, infant mortality, and preterm birth using the population attributable fraction (PAF), examining the mortality risk attributable to preterm birth in infants with birth defects. Data for this study came from the Texas Birth Defects Registry, which includes live births, still births, and pregnancy terminations with a structural birth defect or chromosomal abnormality. The sample included live-born infants with 1 or more major birth defects between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2014. Exclusion criteria were infants with a chromosomal abnormality or diagnosed syndrome, infants missing data on gestational age or with a gestational age less than 24 weeks, and anencephaly. The final sample included 169,148 infants; of these, 40,872 were preterm (&lt;37 weeks), 128,276 were term, and 2715 died as neonates. Distributions of maternal and infant characteristics were significantly different between the 2 groups (P &lt; 0.01), with more mothers of preterm infants experiencing diabetes, hypertension, multiple gestation pregnancies, or cesarean delivery. In addition, more preterm infants had multiple birth defects or congenital heart defects than their term peers. Analysis of the data included estimates of PAF for infant mortality risk attributed to 31 different birth defects, with results ranging from 12.5% to 71.9%. Highest PAF estimates were observed for anotia or microtia (71.9%; CI, 41.1–86.6), hypospadias (69.4%; CI, 53.9–79.7), talipes equinovarus (69.4%; CI, 60.0–76.6), and stenosis or atresia of the large intestine, rectum, or anal canal (69.1%; CI, 56.3–78.1). On the other hand, lowest PAF estimates included hypoplastic left heart syndrome (12.5%; CI, 8.7–16.1), coarctation of the aorta (19.7%; CI, 9.8–28.4), diaphragmatic hernia (23.8%; CI, 19.2–28.2), and holoprosencephaly (26.0%; CI, 14.5–35.9). For each defect associated with a higher PAF, a large percentage of infant deaths were those born preterm. Infants with defects that had a high PAF estimate were 11.4–17.8 times more likely to die if born preterm than term, and those with a low PAF estimate were only 1.9–2.3 times more likely to die if born preterm as opposed to full term. Overall, analysis showed that 51.7% of neonatal mortality in infants with birth defects is attributable to preterm birth. Stratified analyses performed to reduce confounders showed similar results. The relationship between birth defects and other factors contributing to preterm delivery and infant mortality is complex, and thus this study is unable to fully characterize these relationships. The associations revealed in this analysis indicate that preterm birth is a significant contributor to infant mortality in infants with birth defects, and further research can more fully characterize this association by attempting interventions both to mitigate preterm birth and to reduce infant mortality after preterm birth. Further research might also focus on particular types of birth defects and how rates of preterm birth might be reduced in specific cases of either infant or maternal risks.

Proportion of liver cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in China.

Understanding the differences in the burden of liver cancer due to different risk factors across provinces is critical to informing and improving liver cancer prevention and control. In this study, we estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of liver cancer in all 31 provinces of China in 2016. Prevalence estimates of risk factors were derived from representative surveys. We used pooled relative risks obtained from several recent large-scale pooled analyses or high-quality meta-analyses. We calculated PAFs using multiple formulas which included exposure prevalence and relative risk data stratified by sex, age and province, and then combined and created overall PAFs by sex, risk factors and risk factor groups. Approximately 252 046 liver cancer cases {69.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 52.6, 76.5]} and 212 704 deaths [67.7% (95% CI 50.9, 74.6)] were attributable to modifiable risk factors in China in 2016. The overall PAF for liver cancer was approximately 1.5 times higher in men than in women, with the top three risk factors in men being hepatitis B virus (HBV), smoking and alcohol drinking, whereas in women, they were HBV, excess body weight and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Among the risk factor groups, infectious agents had the highest PAF, followed by behavioural factors and metabolic factors. The PAF for liver cancer caused by modifiable risk factors varies widely among provinces and socioeconomic and geographical regions in China. The use of tailored primary prevention strategies across provinces and socioeconomic and geographical regions has great potential to reduce the burden and disparities of liver cancer.

Patterns of global burden of 13 diseases attributable to lead exposure, 1990–2019

ObjectivesUnderstanding the spatio-temporal patterns of the global burden of various diseases resulting from lead exposure is critical for controlling lead pollution and disease prevention.MethodsBased on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework and methodology, the global, regional, and national burden of 13 level-three diseases attributable to lead exposure were analyzed by disease type, patient age and sex, and year of occurrence. Population attributable fraction (PAF), deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) obtained from the GBD 2019 database were used as descriptive indicators, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was estimated by a log-linear regression model to reflect the time trend.Results and conclusionsFrom 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs resulting from lead exposure increased by 70.19% and 35.26%, respectively; however, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 20.66% and 29.23%, respectively. Ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and hypertensive heart disease (HHD) showed the highest increases in deaths; IHD, stroke, and diabetes and kidney disease (DKD) had the fastest-growing DALYs. The fastest decline in ASMR and ASDR was seen in stroke, with AAPCs of -1.25 (95% CI [95% confidence interval]: -1.36, -1.14) and -1.66 (95% CI: -1.76, -1.57), respectively. High PAFs occurred mainly in South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. Age-specific PAFs of DKD resulting from lead exposure were positively correlated with age, whereas the opposite was true for mental disorders (MD), with the burden of lead-induced MD concentrated in children aged 0–6 years. The AAPCs of ASMR and ASDR showed a strong negative correlation with the socio-demographic index. Our findings showed that the global impact of lead exposure and its burden increased from 1990 to 2019 and varied significantly according to age, sex, region, and resulting disease. Effective public health measures and policies should be adopted to prevent and control lead exposure.

Population-Attributable Fractions of Personal Comorbidities for Liver, Gallbladder, and Bile Duct Cancers.

We aim to estimate population-attributable fractions (PAF) for 13 comorbidities potentially predisposing to hepatobiliary cancer of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), gallbladder cancer (GBC), cancers of the intrahepatic and extrahepatic bile ducts (ICC and ECC), and ampullary cancer. Patients were identified from the Swedish Inpatient Register from 1987 to 2018 and cancers from the Swedish Cancer Registry from 1997 through 2018. PAFs were calculated for each comorbidity-associated cancer using a cohort study design. For male HCC, the major individual comorbidities (PAF > 10) were diabetes, alcohol-related liver disease, and hepatitis C virus infection. For female HCC, diabetes and autoimmune diseases were important contributors. For female GBC, gallstone disease was an overwhelming contributor, with a PAF of 30.57%, which was also important for men. The overall PAF for male ICC was almost two times higher than the female one. For ECC and ampullary cancer, infection of bile ducts was associated with the highest PAF. The 13 comorbidities accounted for 50% or more of the potential etiological pathways of each hepatobiliary cancer except female ICC. The underlying convergent mechanism for these cancers may be chronic inflammation lasting for decades and thus offering possibilities for intervention and disease monitoring.