High Risk Of Rapid Progression Research Articles

Progression of aortic stenosis in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 compared with matched controls

Abstract Background Degenerative aortic stenosis (AS) and diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM) increase with age1,2 and their prevalence is expected to rise. Patients with DM have a higher risk to develop AS3 and the pathophysiological process leading from a normal aortic valve to AS involves factors associated with DM. AS develops over years, but it can evolve more rapidly. There is insufficient knowledge about risk factors for rapid progression in AS and monitoring strategies among patients at high risk for rapid progression. The aim of this project is to evaluate the AS progression towards combined outcome (incident heart failure, death, need for intervention) in patients with type 2 DM compared with matched controls. Methods From the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR) we identified all patients with type 2 DM between 01-01-2001- 31-12-2019 and for each patient 5 controls (matched for age, sex, region) from the Swedish Total Population Register. Afterwards we identified a cohort of individuals with AS from these two groups, by linking the NDR with the National Patient Register. The outcomes were: all- cause and cardiovascular mortality, and combined outcome (mortality, hospitalization for heart failure (HF) or aortic valve replacement (AVR)). We used Kaplan Meier survival curves to detect differences in all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, time until AVR and combined outcome between cases and controls. Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for sex, age, obesity, renal failure, hyperparathyroidism, hypertension, hyperlipidemia was used to study the risk difference between the cases and controls for the combined outcome. Results We identified 16 144 individuals with type 2 DM and AS and 31 206 matched controls. The individuals with type 2 DM were predominately men (59% vs 53%), younger (mean age 70.6 vs 71.9), and had more comorbidities. In unadjusted analysis they were hospitalized for HF more often (8.2% vs 6.8%) and more often underwent AVR (surgically) (22.0% vs 19.0%) or transcatheter(6.6% vs 5.0%). Patients with AS and DM had higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and faster progression towards death, AVR or hospitalization for HF (see figure 1, A, B, C). The progression to AVR was significant, although the difference was small and not clinically relevant (plot D). In the adjusted model, the patients with AS and DM had 13% higher hazard to have the combined outcome compared with controls (see figure 2). Sex (female), hypertension and hyperlipidemia lowered the hazard for the combined event, while obesity, hyperparathyroidism and renal failure increased the hazard for the combined event. Conclusions Patients with concomitant AS and DM seem to have faster progression towards death (both all-cause and cardiovascular), and heart failure hospitalization or AVR compared with patients with AS without DM. Therefore, it might be appropriate to be more active regarding follow-up and intervention in these patients.Kaplan Meirer curvesForest plot for adjusted Cox model

High rate of progression to symptomatic multiple myeloma in patients with smoldering myeloma and isolated osteoporotic vertebral fracture

Multiple myeloma (MM) frequently causes vertebral fractures (VF). Some are lytic lesions and others have the aspect of benign osteoporotic fractures not requiring anti-myeloma treatment. We explored outcome of these patients with smoldering myeloma (SM) and osteoporotic VF.In this retrospective bi-centric study, patients were identified using a systematic keyword search on electronic medical records. Patients with SM and isolated VF of osteoporotic aspect without indications for myeloma-specific therapy were included.Overall, 13 (7 %) of the 184 identified patients had SM and VF confirmed to be osteoporotic (median number of VF was 3). During follow-up, 12 (92 %) patients evolved to symptomatic MM, 7 (54 %) of them within 18 months (early progressors). Myeloma defining events were new lytic bone lesions in 7 patients (53.8 %). The serum calcium level was significantly higher in the early progressor group (median 2.35 IQR [2.31–2.38] and 2.28 IQR [2.21–2.29] respectively, p = 0.003). Early progressors had a higher number of VF at diagnosis (3.0 [2.0–5.5] vs 1.0 [1.0–2.5], p = 0.18) and more frequently evolved to symptomatic MM because of lytic bone lesions (5 [71 %] vs 2 [33 %], p = 0.13) compared to late progressors.VF of osteoporotic appearance in the context of SM is a rare situation but at high risk of rapid progression to symptomatic MM, suggesting that they may represent bone fragility linked to MM infiltration rather than solely osteoporotic fractures. Further studies are needed to assess if earlier treatment might be beneficial in this population.

PHENOTYPIC CHARACTERIZATION OF PREDICTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF GEOGRAPHIC ATROPHY USING OPTICAL COHERENCE TOMOGRAPHY.

To evaluate the impact of optical coherence tomography phenotypes preceding atrophy related to age-related macular degeneration on the progression of atrophic lesions. In this observational retrospective cohort study, a total of 70 eyes of 60 consecutive patients with intermediate age-related macular degeneration with a minimum follow-up of 24 months were included. The atrophy was quantified using fundus autofluorescence, also considering the directionality of atrophy as centrifugal and centripetal progression rates. The main outcome measures were geographic atrophy (GA) progression rate (mm 2 /year) and square root transformation of GA (mm 2 /year). The best-fit model for GA (odds ratio: 1.81, P < 0.001) and square root transformation of GA (odds ratio: 1.36, P < 0.001) areas revealed that the main baseline predictor was the presence of a retinal pigment epithelium-basal lamina-Bruch membrane splitting. Large drusen at baseline appeared protective for the GA area lesion expansion over time (odds ratio: 0.52, P < 0.001) when considered with other confounders. A thin retinal pigment epithelium-basal lamina-Bruch membrane splitting without evidence of neovascularization on optical coherence tomography angiography likely represents an optical coherence tomography signature for late basal laminar deposits. Identifying this phenotype can help identify individuals with a higher risk of rapid progression and atrophy expansion.

Risk factor analysis for a rapid progression of chronic kidney disease.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing global health concern. Identifying individuals in routine clinical care with new onset CKD at high risk of rapid progression of the disease is imperative to guide allocation of prophylactic interventions, but community-based data are limited. We aimed to examine the risk of rapid progression, kidney failure, hospitalisation and death among adults with incident CKD stage G3 and to clarify the association between predefined risk markers and rapid CKD progression. Using plasma creatinine measurements for the entire Danish population from both hospitals and primary care, we conducted a nationwide, population-based cohort study, including adults in Denmark with incident CKD stage G3 in 2017-2020. We estimated 3-year risks of rapid progression (defined by a confirmed decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate of ≥5ml/min/1.73 m2/year), kidney failure, all-cause hospitalisation and death. To examine risk markers, we constructed a heat map showing the risk of rapid progression based on predefined markers: albuminuria, sex, diabetes and hypertension/cardiovascular disease. Among 133443 individuals with incident CKD stage G3, the 3-year risk of rapid progression was 14.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 14.4-14.8). The 3-year risks of kidney failure, hospitalisation and death were 0.3% (95% CI: 0.3-0.4), 53.3% (95% CI: 53.0-53.6) and 18.1% (95% CI: 17.9-18.4), respectively. In the heat map, the 3-year risk of rapid progression ranged from 7% in females without albuminuria, hypertension/cardiovascular disease or diabetes, to 46-47% in males and females with severe albuminuria, hypertension/cardiovascular disease and diabetes. This population-based study shows that CKD stage G3 is associated with considerable morbidity in a community-based setting and underscores the need for optimised prophylactic interventions among such patients. Moreover, our data highlight the potential of using easily accessible markers in routine clinical care to identify individuals who are at high risk of rapid progression.

Evaluation of Hepatitis B Vaccination Status and Factors Affecting Response to Vaccination in HIV/AIDS Patients

Objective: Chronicity of acute HBV infection is higher in people living with HIV (PLWH) than in the general population. HIV/HBV coinfection has a higher risk of rapid progression to cirrhosis and liver-related death than in solely HBV-infected patients. Therefore, vaccination against HBV is recommended. In this study, we aimed to evaluate hepatitis B vaccination rates and the factors affecting response to the vaccine in PLWH. Methods: Outpatient follow-up files and laboratory test results at the hospital information system of 1394 patients aged &gt;18 years diagnosed with HIV/AIDS and followed between January 1, 2007, and January 1, 2022, were evaluated retrospectively. Results: Of the PLWH, 81 (5.8%) had chronic hepatitis B infection, 114 (8.2%) had isolated anti-HBc IgG positivity, and 274 (19.6%) had a previous condition. 248 (17.7%) of the PLWH had been vaccinated before HIV/AIDS diagnosis. HBsAg, anti-HBc IgG and anti-HBs were negative in 673 PLWH. A total of 352 (44.7%) PLWHs were vaccinated, consisting of 63 (55.2%) of 114 PLWHs with isolated anti-HBc IgG positivity and 289 (42.9%) of 673 PLWHs with negative HBV serology. Immunity developed in 282 (84.1%) of those vaccinated. We found that the main factor determining the immune response was the CD4+ T lymphocyte count at the time of diagnosis, and there was a significant increase in immune response since 2015 when the recommendation of antiretroviral therapy independent of the CD4+ T lymphocyte level was implemented. We observed that comorbidities, age, gender, and sexual orientation did not significantly affect the vaccine response. Conclusion: Vaccination is critical in PLWH, and we observed that the ideal time for vaccination in those with negative HBV serology is when the CD4+ T lymphocyte count is &gt;200 cells/mm³ and the viral load is suppressed. It should be considered that the vaccination rate and immune response will increase with the support of vaccination outpatient clinics, where vaccination status is closely monitored by healthcare personnel. Keywords: HIV/AIDS, hepatitis B vaccine, vaccination, vaccine respons

Gold nanoparticle probes for colorimetric detection of plasma galectin-3: a simple and rapid approach.

Galectin-3 (Gal-3) is a carbohydrate-binding protein associated with the development and progress of heart failure. Here, we report the first colorimetric and low-cost approach for detecting and quantifying Gal-3 using gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) bioconjugated with Gal-3 antibody. The interaction of Gal-3 with the resulting nanoprobes led to a linear response of the absorbance ratio A750nm/A526nm to Gal-3 concentration, accompanied by a change in color intensity. The assay showed a linear optical response even in complex samples, such as saliva and fetal bovine serum (FBS), up to a concentration of 200 μg L-1. The limit of detection (LOD) followed the trend LODPBS (10.0 μg L-1) < LODsaliva (22.6 μg L-1) < LODFBS (25.3 μg L-1). The potential applicability of this method to the analysis of human plasma samples was also demonstrated. Compared to conventional detection techniques, this colorimetric assay provides faster results (∼1 h) and is more cost-effective due to the use of simple and unexpensive equipment. This assay represents an exciting solution for the rapid screening of high risk for rapid progression of heart failure in patient samples (Gal-3 > 25.9 μg L-1).

Factors of proteolysis in blood and urine as prognostic markers of progression of Alport syndrome in children

BACKGROUND. Alport syndrome is a rare hereditary kidney disease that causes progressive renal failure. There are significant differences in the progression of the disease between patients with Alport syndrome. Identifying patients with a high risk of rapid progression in order to optimally balance benefits and risks for prescribing therapy has become particularly important at this time. In this study, we wanted to assess whether the factors of proteolysis in blood and urine are associated with the nature of the course and to assess their prognostic value for children with Alport syndrome. THE AIM: To determine the level in blood serum and urinary excretion of MMP-2, MMP-3 and MMP-9 and their inhibitors TIMP-1 and 2, PAI-I, to show the relationship of their changes with the character of the course of Alport syndrome in children as an additional criterion for progression. PATIENTS AND METHODS. The study included 32 children with Alport syndrome. The level of MMP-2, MMP-3 and MMP-9 and their inhibitors TIMP-1 and 2, PAI-I, in blood serum and urine was determined by ELISA. A decrease in eGFR of ≥ 30 % at 2 years from baseline was chosen to indicate a progressive course of Alport syndrome. RESULTS. 28.1 % of children with Alport syndrome had a progressive course of the dis ease, 71.9 % had a slowly progressive course. The frequency of a decrease in MMP-9 and an increase in TIMP-1 both in blood (88.9 versus 43.5 % and 77.8 versus 21.7 %; p = 0.044 and 0.006, respectively) and in urine (100 versus 47, 8 % and 88.9 versus 30.4 %; 0.012 and 0.005, respectively) were statistically significantly more often detected in children with Alport syndrome with a progressive course of the disease than in a slowly progressive course. CONCLUSION. Type 9 matrix metalloproteinase and type 1 tissue matrix metalloproteinase inhibitor can be considered as risk factors for the progression of Alport syndrome in children.

Cognitive trajectories preluding the imminent onset of Alzheimer’s disease dementia in individuals with normal cognition: results from the HELIAD cohort

BackgroundThe cognitive trajectories of cognitively normal (CN) individuals rapidly progressing to Alzheimer’s disease dementia (AD) have not been investigated.AimTo explore the preclinical pattern of cognitive performance heralding the rapid progression from normal cognition to AD.MethodsThe HELIAD cohort underwent comprehensive neuropsychological assessments (memory, language, attention, executive and visuo-perceptual functions) at baseline and after approximately 3-year intervals. The cognitive trajectories of those with normal cognition at baseline were explored according to the follow-up diagnosis using adjusted generalised estimating equations analyses.ResultsA total of 932 predominantly female (61%), older (72.9 ± 4.9), CN participants were followed for 3.09 (± 0.83) years. Among them, 761 individuals remained CN, 29 progressed to AD and 142 developed MCI (33 single-domain amnestic, 41 multidomain amnestic, 37 single-domain non-amnestic and 31 multidomain non-amnestic). Those progressing to AD were already performing worse than the healthy reference in every single cognitive domain at baseline. Cognitive deficits ranged between ~ 0.5SD (attention, executive function and language) and ~ 1.0SD (memory and visuo-perceptual skills). Throughout the 3-year follow-up, memory constantly exhibited the most prominent impairment compared to the remaining cognitive domains while executive function diminished in the most abrupt fashion (~ 0.19SD yearly) separating from the remaining three cognitive functions before the development of full-blown AD. Heterogeneous patterns of cognitive decline clearly differentiated those progressing to MCI from those rapidly converting to AD, as well.DiscussionPoor performance in every cognitive domain may characterise cognitively normal individuals at high risk of fast progression to AD.ConclusionStrict neuropsychological cut-offs fail to detect a considerable number of individuals at high risk of rapid progression to AD.

C-reactive protein and white blood cell are associated with frailty progression: a longitudinal study

BackgroundSystemic inflammation has been linked to diseases and frailty. However, little is known about the effect of systemic inflammation on frailty progression with a longitudinal study design.ObjectivesThis study aimed to investigate the associations of two inflammation indicators, C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell (WBC), with frailty progression.MethodsThis study utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2011–2018 (wave 1-wave 4). Frailty index (FI) was calculated using 40 items from wave 1 to wave 4 (range: 0 to 1). Two systemic inflammation biomarkers, CRP and WBC, were measured at baseline (wave 1) and logs transformed as continuous variables or grouped using quartiles. Linear mixed-effect models were used to analyze the associations of these two biomarkers with the progression of frailty with adjustment for potential confounding factors.ResultsThe study enrolled 9111 middle-aged and older participants (52.7% females, mean age 58.8 ± 9.3 years). The median follow-up time was 7.0 years. In a fully adjusted model with further adjustment for baseline FI, higher CRP (β for the interaction with time = 0.239, 95% CI: 0.139 to 0.338) and WBC (β for the interaction with time = 0.425, 95% CI: 0.024 to 0.825) significantly accelerated the rate of increase in the FI during the follow-up period. The associations were more pronounced in younger people (< 60 years) than older people (≥60 years).ConclusionsHigher CRP and WBC accelerated the progression of frailty, particularly in younger groups (< 60 years). The findings suggest the importance of systemic inflammation for the early identification of people at high risk of rapid progression of frailty.

Clinical and laboratory parameters associated with rapid progression in advanced NSCLC patients treated with second or third-line single agent immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs).

e21087 Background: While laboratory parameters including PDL1 expression and NLR are associated with outcomes in patients with metastatic NSCLC treated with ICIs, these measures have not identified patients with rapid progression (RP) defined as progressive disease within 30 days. Clinical factors including patient age and weight loss have been associated with cancer outcomes in general. Identifying clinical correlates for NSCLC patients who experience RP on ICI therapy would be useful. Methods: The objective of this retrospective study was to evaluate relationships between pre-treatment cachexia and inflammation and RP in NSCLC patients who received 2nd- or 3rd- line single agent ICIs. Associations of age, race, gender, smoking status, and longitudinal changes in weight and NLR (from at least 6 weeks prior to treatment initiation) with RP were analyzed by univariate and multivariate statistical (Kaplan-Meier and related) methods. Results: 195 patients were included: 59% female, 18% Black, and 78% current or former smokers. 14% of patients had RP. Black race was associated with RP (HR = 2.32, p = 0.03). 191 patients had pretreatment weight available. 63% had weight loss prior to ICI, 25% with &gt; 5% loss. Any weight loss and weight loss &gt; 5% over the time period ≥6 weeks prior to treatment initiation were associated with RP (HR = 3.19 and 6.40, p = 0.03 and &lt; 0.01). 188 patients had pretreatment NLR values, 63% and 42% had NLRs &gt; 3.5 and &gt; 5, respectively. Pre-treatment NLR &gt; 5 and higher baseline NLR were associated with increased risk of RP (p = 0.03 and p &lt; 0.01). In multivariate analysis adjusted by age, smoking status and weight change, higher pre-treatment NLR is found to differentially increase RP risk for black patients (interaction HR = 1.27, p = 0.03). A model with these 5 variables provided 84.5% AUC of ROC curve (80% sensitivity, 75% sensitivity) for prognosticating RP. Conclusions: This retrospective study identified clinical variables including pre-treatment NLR &gt; 5, weight loss &gt; 0% &amp; &gt; 5%, black race, smoking status, and age that were associated with RP in previously treated advanced NSCLC patients receiving single agent ICIs. Though this requires validation with racially diverse data sets, these clinical parameters may be useful in identifying patients at high risk of RP on 2nd or 3rd line ICI therapy. Future directions include evaluating clinical characteristics and laboratory parameters in NSCLC patients treated with ICIs combined with chemotherapy and novel immunotherapy regimens, as well as single agent ICIs in the first line setting. If these clinical characteristics are associated with frequent RP in the setting of first line ICI treatment, it would be reasonable to consider novel immune strategies in this patient subset.

The emerging postural instability phenotype in idiopathic Parkinson disease

Identification of individuals at high risk for rapid progression of motor and cognitive signs in Parkinson disease (PD) is clinically significant. Postural instability and gait dysfunction (PIGD) are associated with greater motor and cognitive deterioration. We examined the relationship between baseline clinical factors and the development of postural instability using 5-year longitudinal de-novo idiopathic data (n = 301) from the Parkinson’s Progressive Markers Initiative (PPMI). Logistic regression analysis revealed baseline features associated with future postural instability, and we designated this cohort the emerging postural instability (ePI) phenotype. We evaluated the resulting ePI phenotype rating scale validity in two held-out populations which showed a significantly higher risk of postural instability. Emerging PI phenotype was identified before onset of postural instability in 289 of 301 paired comparisons, with a median progression time of 972 days. Baseline cognitive performance was similar but declined more rapidly in ePI phenotype. We provide an ePI phenotype rating scale (ePIRS) for evaluation of individual risk at baseline for progression to postural instability.

Collapsing Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis in Viral Infections.

Collapsing glomerulopathy represents a special variant of the proteinuric kidney disease focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). Histologically, the collapsing form of FSGS (cFSGS) is characterized by segmental or global condensation and obliteration of glomerular capillaries, the appearance of hyperplastic and hypertrophic podocytes and severe tubulointerstitial damage. Clinically, cFSGS patients present with acute kidney injury, nephrotic-range proteinuria and are at a high risk of rapid progression to irreversible kidney failure. cFSGS can be attributed to numerous etiologies, namely, viral infections like HIV, cytomegalovirus, Epstein–Barr-Virus, and parvovirus B19 and also drugs and severe ischemia. Risk variants of the APOL1 gene, predominantly found in people of African descent, increase the risk of developing cFSGS. Patients infected with the new Corona-Virus SARS-CoV-2 display an increased rate of acute kidney injury (AKI) in severe cases of COVID-19. Besides hemodynamic instability, cytokine mediated injury and direct viral entry and infection of renal epithelial cells contributing to AKI, there are emerging reports of cFSGS associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients of mainly African ethnicity. The pathogenesis of cFSGS is proposed to be linked with direct viral infection of podocytes, as described for HIV-associated glomerulopathy. Nevertheless, there is growing evidence that the systemic inflammatory cascade, activated in acute viral infections like COVID-19, is a major contributor to the impairment of basic cellular functions in podocytes. This mini review will summarize the current knowledge on cFSGS associated with viral infections with a special focus on the influence of systemic immune responses and potential mechanisms propagating the development of cFSGS.

Predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome in influenza pneumonia patients using delta mean platelet volume

BackgroundPatients with influenza pneumonia are at high risk of rapid progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Mean platelet volume (MPV), which reflects platelet size, is considered to be a crucial inflammatory marker. The study aim was to investigate the role of delta mean platelet volume (delta MPV) in predicting ARDS in patients with influenza pneumonia.MethodsThis retrospective study was conducted in a tertiary care centre in southern Thailand. Adult patients diagnosed with influenza pneumonia were enrolled from January 2015 to December 2020. Demographic data, laboratory investigations including delta MPV (MPV on day 2 minus MPV on day 1), management records, and clinical outcomes were collected for analysis. The study population was divided into two groups according to the development of ARDS.ResultsDuring the study, 1240 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza were screened and 212 pneumonia patients were enrolled. Fifty-six patients (26.4%) met the diagnostic criteria for ARDS during hospitalization. Delta MPV was significantly higher in the ARDS group compared to that in the non-ARDS group (1.0 fL vs 0.2 fL, p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression revealed that delta MPV is an independent predictor of ARDS (OR 17.37; 95% CI 6.5–46.4; p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated a cut-off value of 0.7 fL for delta MPV (sensitivity 80.36%, specificity 80.77%) to predict ARDS in patients with influenza pneumonia.ConclusionsDelta MPV strongly predicts ARDS in influenza pneumonia patients. Implementation of delta MPV may be useful in identifying at-risk patients who will require intensive care and ARDS prevention.

A clinical model for predicting knee replacement in early-stage knee osteoarthritis: data from osteoarthritis initiative.

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) progresses in a heterogeneous way, as a majority of the patients gradually worsen over decades while some undergo rapid progression and require knee replacement. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model that enables quantified risk prediction of future knee replacement in patients with early-stage knee OA. Patients with early-stage knee OA, intact MRI measurements, and a follow-up time larger than 108months were retrieved from the Osteoarthritis Initiative database. Twenty-five candidate predictors including demographic data, clinical outcomes, and radiographic parameters were selected. The presence or absence of knee replacement during the first 108months of the follow-up was regarded as the primary outcome. Patients were randomly divided into derivation and validation groups in the ratio of three to one. Nomograms were developed based on multivariable logistic regressions of derivation group via R language. Those models were further tested in the validation group for external validation. A total of 839 knees were enrolled, with 98 knees received knee replacement during the first 108months. Glucocorticoid injection history, knee OA in the contralateral side, extensor muscle strength, area of cartilage deficiency, bone marrow lesion, and meniscus extrusion were selected to develop the nomogram after multivariable logistic regression analysis. The bias-corrected C-index and AUC of our nomogram in the validation group were 0.804 and 0.822, respectively. Our predicting model provided simplified identification of patients with high risk of rapid progression in knee OA, which showed adequate predictive discrimination and calibration. • Knee OA progresses in a heterogeneous way and rises to a challenge when making treatment strategies. • Our predicting model provided simplified identification of patients with high risk of rapid progression in knee OA.

A prediction model for the decline in renal function in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: study protocol

BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) is a well-established complication in people with diabetes mellitus. Roughly one quarter of prevalent patients with diabetes exhibit a CKD stage of 3 or higher and the individual course of progression is highly variable. Therefore, there is a clear need to identify patients at high risk for fast progression and the implementation of preventative strategies. Existing prediction models of renal function decline, however, aim to assess the risk by artificially grouped patients prior to model building into risk strata defined by the categorization of the least-squares slope through the longitudinally fluctuating eGFR values, resulting in a loss of predictive precision and accuracy.MethodsThis study protocol describes the development and validation of a prediction model for the longitudinal progression of renal function decline in Caucasian patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2). For development and internal-external validation, two prospective multicenter observational studies will be used (PROVALID and GCKD). The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) obtained at baseline and at all planned follow-up visits will be the longitudinal outcome. Demographics, clinical information and laboratory measurements available at a baseline visit will be used as predictors in addition to random country-specific intercepts to account for the clustered data. A multivariable mixed-effects model including the main effects of the clinical variables and their interactions with time will be fitted. In application, this model can be used to obtain personalized predictions of an eGFR trajectory conditional on baseline eGFR values. The final model will then undergo external validation using a third prospective cohort (DIACORE). The final prediction model will be made publicly available through the implementation of an R shiny web application.DiscussionOur proposed state-of-the-art methodology will be developed using multiple multicentre study cohorts of people with DM2 in various CKD stages at baseline, who have received modern therapeutic treatment strategies of diabetic kidney disease in contrast to previous models. Hence, we anticipate that the multivariable prediction model will aid as an additional informative tool to determine the patient-specific progression of renal function and provide a useful guide to early on identify individuals with DM2 at high risk for rapid progression.

Identification of Stage IIIC/IV EGFR-Mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Populations Sensitive to Targeted Therapy Based on a PET/CT Radiomics Risk Model

ObjectivesThis project aimed to construct an individualized PET/CT prognostic biomarker to accurately quantify the progression risk of patients with stage IIIC-IV epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutated Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after first-line first and second generation EGFR- tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) drug therapy and identify the first and second generation EGFR-TKI treatment-sensitive population.MethodsA total of 250 patients with stage IIIC-IV EGFR-mutated NSCLC underwent first-line first and second generation EGFR-TKI drug therapy were included from two institutions (140 patients in training cohort; 60 patients in internal validation cohort, and 50 patients in external validation cohort). 1037 3D radiomics features were extracted to quantify the phenotypic characteristics of the tumor region in PET and CT images, respectively. A four-step feature selection method was performed to enable derivation of stable and effective signature in the training cohort. According to the median value of radiomics signature score (Rad-score), patients were divided into low- and high-risk groups. The progression-free survival (PFS) behaviors of the two subgroups were compared by Kaplan–Meier survival analysis.ResultsOur results shown that higher Rad-scores were significantly associated with worse PFS in the training (p < 0.0001), internal validation (p = 0.0153), and external validation (p = 0.0006) cohorts. Rad-score can effectively identify patients with a high risk of rapid progression. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves of the three cohorts present significant differences in PFS between the stratified slow and rapid progression subgroups.ConclusionThe PET/CT-derived Rad-score can realize the precise quantitative stratification of progression risk after first-line first and second generation EGFR-TKI drug therapy for NSCLC and identify EGFR-mutated NSCLC populations sensitive to targeted therapy, which might help to provide precise treatment options for NSCLC.

Overweight and Obesity and Progression of ADPKD.

On the basis of earlier observations, we evaluated the association between overweight and obesity and rapid progression of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease in participants in the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease and Its Outcomes (TEMPO) 3:4 trial. More importantly, we also determined whether efficacy of tolvaptan was attenuated in individuals with baseline overweight or obesity. A total of 1312 study participants with relatively early-stage autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (mean eGFR 78±22 ml/min per 1.73 m2) who were at high risk of rapid progression were categorized by body mass index (BMI; calculated using nonkidney weight) as normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m2; n=670), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m2; n=429), or obese (≥30 kg/m2; n=213). Linear and multinomial logistic regression models were used to determine the association of baseline overweight and obesity with change in total kidney volume (TKV) over the 3-year study period. In fully adjusted models, higher BMI was associated with greater annual percent change in TKV (difference of 1.20 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.85 to 1.55] per five-unit higher BMI). Overweight and obesity were associated with higher odds of annual percent change in TKV of ≥7% versus <5% (overweight: odds ratio, 2.04 [95% CI, 1.45 to 2.87]; obese: odds ratio, 4.31 [95% CI, 2.83 to 6.57] versus normal weight). eGFR decline did not differ according to BMI (fully adjusted difference in decline of -0.95 [95% CI, -2.32 to 0.40] ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year per five-unit higher BMI). The three-way interaction (treatment×time×BMI group) was not statistically significant in linear mixed models with an outcome of TKV (log-transformed estimated coefficient comparing the treatment effect for overweight versus normal weight: 0.56% [95% CI, -0.70% to 1.84%] per year; P=0.38; obese versus normal weight: 0.07% [95% CI, -1.47% to 1.63%] per year; P=0.93) or eGFR (estimated coefficient comparing overweight versus normal weight: -0.07 [95% CI, -0.95 to 0.82] ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year; P=0.88; obese versus normal weight: 0.22 [95% CI, -0.93 to 1.36] ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year; P=0.71). Overweight and particularly obesity are strongly and independently associated with kidney growth, but not eGFR slope, in the TEMPO 3:4 trial, and tolvaptan efficacy is irrespective of BMI categorization. Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease and Its Outcomes (TEMPO) 3:4, NCT00428948.

MO064ASSESSMENT OF KIDNEY SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS AFFECTED BY ADPKD

Abstract Background and Aims Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common hereditary nephropathy that causes kidney failure and the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT). It has recently been established that there is a genotype-phenotype relationship for this disease, with differences in the age of access to TRS if the involvement occurs in the PKD1 or PKD2 gene and if the variant is truncating or not. Identifying patients at high risk for rapid progression has become increasingly important given the emergence of potential new treatments such as tolvaptan. Method Studies are carried out in 23 families affected in which a genetic study has previously been the variant identified. For the survival analysis, the Kaplan-Meier test was performed. Data are expressed in terms of mean ± SD, median and %. Results The data described in Table 1 show that there is huge variability of access to RRT according to the type of variant found in the family. We found families in which the age at which kidney failure occurred ranged from 48.03 (28.38-67.68) years to families in which RRT began with 78.04 (65.06-91.03). We observed that those families that present a variant with a stop or frameshift codon suffer a loss of kidney function before those that present a missense variant. In the variants with a stop or frameshift codon, we observed that they ranged from 48.03 (28.38-67.68) for the variant c.7480G&amp;gt; T (p.Glu2494 *) to 73.75 (61.52-85, 98) in variant c.9616C&amp;gt; T p.Gln3203 *. In those missense variants, the age of access to RRT ranges from 62.17 (60.43-63.91) to 77.13 (71.56-82.71) Conclusion Advances in studies of the genes involved in ADPKD are expanding the identification of new variants and the knowledge about their involvement in the progression of the disease. The correlation between genotype and kidney disease will provide a useful clinical prognosis for ADPKD and will allow us to establish current and future treatments.

Volume-weighted unipolar endocardial voltage: An excellent, novel parameter for predicting cardiac mortality in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and ventricular arrhythmias

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VT) are at risk for heart failure (HF) death. Global left ventricular endocardial voltage may reflect the amount of excitable viable myocardium and identify patients at risk for rapid progression to end-stage HF. Aim To determine if volume-weighted endocardial voltage, as a surrogate for the total excitable viable myocardium, predicts mortality in patients with DCM and VT. Methods Consecutive patients with DCM, who underwent high-density endocardial voltage mapping for VT or PVC ablation (2012-2018), were included. Mapping data were transferred from CARTO to ParaView after excluding valve areas. The volume-weighted UV and BV (vwUV, vwBW) were calculated by mathematically integrating the UV and BV over the whole LV (thereby correcting for mapping density heterogeneity) divided by the endocardial LV surface area and corrected for LV wall thickness determined by echocardiography. The prognostic values of vwUV and vwBV for cardiac function and cardiac death were evaluated. Results One hundred three patients (VT, n = 83 and PVC, n = 20; age, 57 ± 14yrs; LVEF, 39 ± 13%; [likely] pathogenic genetic variants 33 [32%]; amiodarone use 36 [35%]) were included. VwUV and vwBV were 9.94 ± 3.42 and 4.70 ± 1.46. During a median follow-up of 24 months, cardiac mortality was 18% (end-stage HF 16/19, the median time to death 5.7 months). Patients who died had a significantly lower vwUV and vwBV (vwUV 5.62 ± 0.93 vs. 10.91 ± 3.10, P &amp;lt; 0.001; vwBV 2.99 ± 0.70 vs. 5.04 ± 1.28, P &amp;lt; 0.001). The optimal cutoff of vwUV for predicting HF-related death was 6.64 (AUC, 0.98; Sensitivity, 94%; Specificity, 95%), superior to LVEF or vwBV (AUC, 0.77, 0.92, respectively, Figure A). In multivariable analysis, vwUV remained the only significant predictor for cardiac death (for one decrease, HR 2.66, CI 1.41-5.00, P = 0.002), independently of LVEF, NT-proBNP, vwBV, genetic variants, and amiodarone use. In a subanalysis, the correlations between vwUV and changes of LVEF over time after voltage mapping were analyzed in patients with mid-range (HFmrEF, EF40-49%, n = 27) and reduced (HFrEF, EF &amp;lt; 40%, n = 53) LVEF, respectively. In patients with HFmrEF, a significant LVEF deterioration (defined as an EF decrease &amp;gt;5% and transition to HFrEF) occurred in 22% and was strongly related with a low vwUV (6.65 ± 1.15 vs. 10.08 ± 2.92, P = 0.02, Figure B left). Furthermore, in patients with HFrEF, a significant LVEF improvement (defined as an EF increase &amp;gt;5% and transition to HFmrEF) was noted in 32% and was correlated with a high vwUV (11.68 ± 2.70 vs. 8.62 ± 2.69, P = 0.002, Figure B right). Conclusion VwUV is a newly proposed surrogate for the amount of LV viable myocardium, available from routine endocardial mapping and an excellent parameter to identify patients with DCM at high risk for rapid progression to HF-related death. Abstract Figure. vwUV and outcomes

Occupational and environmental risk factors of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a systematic review and meta-analyses

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic, progressive, fibrosing interstitial lung disease of unknown cause. It has a high risk of rapid progression and mortality. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the risk factor of IPF. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane library from the earliest record to March, 2020. Case–control studies on occupational and environmental risk factors or on jobs with a risk of IPF were searched for. From 2490 relevant records, 12 studies were included. Any occupational or environmental exposure to metal dust (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.15–2.91, I2 = 54%), wood dust (OR 1.62 5% CI 1.04–2.53, I2 = 5%) and pesticide (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.24–3.45, I2 = 0%) were associated with an increased risk of IPF. Farming or agricultural work (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.17–3.04, I2 = 67%) was also associated with an increased risk of IPF. Moreover, smoking increased IPF risk with an odds ratio of 1.39 (95% CI 1.01–1.91, I2 = 29%). In conclusion, metal dust, wood dust, pesticide, occupational history of farming or agriculture and ever smoking increased the risk of IPF.