High Probability Research Articles

A Space-Efficient One-Pass Online SVM Algorithm

In this paper we consider the problem of training a Support Vector Machine (SVM) online using a stream of data in random order. We provide a fast online training algorithm for general SVM on very large datasets. Based on the geometric interpretation of SVM known as the polytope distance, our algorithm uses a gradient descent procedure to solve the problem. With high probability our algorithm outputs an [Formula: see text]-approximation result in constant time and space, which is independent of the size of the dataset, where [Formula: see text]-approximation means that the separating margin of the classifier is almost optimal (with error [Formula: see text]), and the number of misclassified training points is very small (with error [Formula: see text]). Experimental results show that our algorithm outperforms most of existing online algorithms, especially in the space requirement aspect, while maintaining high accuracy.

Online Learning and Decision Making Under Generalized Linear Model with High-Dimensional Data

We propose a minimax concave penalized multiarmed bandit algorithm under the generalized linear model (G-MCP-Bandit) for decision-makers facing high-dimensional data in an online learning and decision-making environment. We demonstrate that in the data-rich regime, the G-MCP-Bandit algorithm attains the optimal cumulative regret in the sample size dimension and a tight bound in the covariate dimension and the significant covariate dimension. In the data-poor regime, the G-MCP-Bandit algorithm maintains a tight regret upper bound. In addition, we develop a local linear approximation method, the two-step weighted Lasso procedure, to identify the minimax concave penalty (MCP) estimator for the G-MCP-Bandit algorithm when samples are not independent and identically distributed. Under this procedure, the MCP estimator can match the oracle estimator with high probability and converge to the true parameters at the optimal convergence rate. Finally, through experiments based on both synthetic and real data sets, we show that the G-MCP-Bandit algorithm outperforms other benchmarking algorithms in terms of cumulative regret and that the benefits of the G-MCP-Bandit algorithm increase in the data’s sparsity level and the size of the decision set. This paper was accepted by J. George Shanthikumar, big data analytics. Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [Grants W2441021, 72371172, 72342023, and 71929101] and the National Science Foundation (NSF) [Grant DMS 1820702]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01557 .

Efficacy and safety of first-line immune checkpoint inhibitor combination therapies in patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a network meta-analysis

BackgroundWe performed a network meta-analysis of phase III trials to compare the efficacy and safety of first-line regimens for patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).MethodsA systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis were conducted by retrieving relevant literature from PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and the Web of Science. We included published sources of randomized clinical trials comparing immunotherapy combinations for treating advanced ESCC.ResultsWe analyzed seven studies involving eight immunotherapy combinations and 4688 patients. For patients without programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) selection, it was found that the combination of toripalimab and chemotherapy provided better overall survival than chemotherapy alone (hazard ratio = 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43-0.78). Compared with chemotherapy alone, Sintilimab or camrelizumab plus chemotherapy seemed to achieve the best progression-free survival (hazard ratio = 0.56, 95% CI 0.46-0.68). Nivolumab plus chemotherapy appeared to provide the best objective response rate, with significant differences versus chemotherapy alone (odds ratio = 0.49, 95% CI 0.38-0.64). Nivolumab plus ipilimumab resulted in a relatively lower incidence of adverse events of grade ≥3 than other regimens.ConclusionsThe combination of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) with chemotherapy provided a high probability of more effective treatment in comparison with chemotherapy alone for patients with advanced ESCC. Toripalimab and sintilimab plus chemotherapy were ranked as providing the highest OS and PFS benefit in the first-line setting, respectively.

21-Hydroxylase Deficiency Detected in Neonatal Screening: High Probability of False Negativity in Late Onset Form.

Despite the high sensitivity of neonatal screening in detecting the classical form of congenital adrenal hyperplasia due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency, one of the unclear issues is identifying asymptomatic children with late onset forms. The aim of this nationwide study was to analyse the association between genotype and screened level of 17-hydroxyprogesterone in patients with the late onset form of 21-hydroxylase deficiency and to quantify false negativity. In the Czech Republic, 1,866,129 neonates were screened (2006-2022). Among this cohort, 159 patients were confirmed to suffer from 21-hydroxylase deficiency, employing the 17-hydroxyprogesterone birthweight/gestational age-adjusted cut-off limits, and followed by the genetic confirmation. The screening prevalence was 1:11,737. Another 57 patients who were false negative in neonatal screening were added to this cohort based on later diagnosis by clinical suspicion. To our knowledge, such a huge nationwide cohort of false negative patients has not been documented before. Overall, 57 patients escaped from neonatal screening in the monitored period. All false negative patients had milder forms. Only one patient had simple virilising form and 56 patients had the late onset form. The probability of false negativity in the late onset form was 76.7%. The difference in 17-hydroxyprogesterone screening values was statistically significant (p<0.001) between severe forms (median 478.8 nmol/L) and milder (36.2 nmol/L) forms. Interestingly, the higher proportion of females with milder forms was statistically significant compared with the general population. A negative neonatal screening result does not exclude milder forms of 21-hydroxylase deficiency during the differential diagnostic procedure of children with precocious pseudopuberty.

BIOM-27. VOXEL-WISE SURVIVAL ANALYSIS IN GLIOBLASTOMA: TUMOR PROBABILITY MAPS REVEAL CRITICAL REGIONS NEAR WHITE MATTER TRACTS

Abstract BACKGROUND Glioblastoma is the most aggressive primary brain tumor, characterized by rapid growth and poor prognosis. Understanding spatial determinants of survival in GBM is crucial for improving prognostic accuracy and treatment strategies. Our study employs voxel-wise survival analysis (VSA) of tumor probability maps (TPMs) derived from MRI to identify high-risk brain regions. TPMs are generated through radio-pathomic mapping and can predict non-enhancing tumor regions not captured by traditional imaging. We aim to determine if high tumor probability regions are near previously identified critical white matter (WM) tracts and assess their impact on survival outcomes. METHODS We analyzed data from 374 GBM patients from the UCSF-PDGM-v2 dataset. Using a pretrained radio-pathomic model, TPMs were predicted based on T1, T1C, ADC, and FLAIR MRI sequences. All TPMs were rigidly registered to MNI space using ANTs. A Cox proportional hazards model was applied voxel-wise to assess the association between tumor probability and overall survival (OS). A p-value map was generated, thresholded, and cluster corrected (p &amp;lt; 0.05) for further analysis. RESULTS The VSA revealed that high tumor probability regions were significantly associated with poorer OS in GBM. Gray matter (GM) regions near WM tracts with high tumor probability showed markedly reduced survival. GM regions adjacent to the left IFOF (p &amp;lt; 0.05, HR = 1.19, 845 vs. 961 days for high/low TPM), Corpus Callosum Forceps Minor (p = 0.0001, HR = 1, 740 vs. 902 days), Body of the Corpus Callosum (p = 0.005, HR = 0.97, 748 vs. 798 days for high/low TPM) and other WM tracts, such as the left thalamic radiation superior and left reticulospinal tracts had similar trends. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrates that regions with high tumor probability, particularly those in the GM near critical WM tracts, are strongly associated with worse overall survival in GBM patients.

Dispersion on the Complete Graph

ABSTRACTWe consider a synchronous process of particles moving on the vertices of a graph , introduced by Cooper et al. Initially, particles are placed on a vertex of . At the beginning of each time step, for every vertex inhabited by at least two particles, each of these particles moves independently to a neighbor chosen uniformly at random. The process ends at the first step when no vertex is inhabited by more than one particle. Cooper et al. showed that when the underlying graph is the complete graph on vertices, then there is a phase transition when the number of particles . They showed that if for some fixed , then the process finishes in a logarithmic number of steps, while if , an exponential number of steps are required with high probability. Here we provide a thorough asymptotic analysis of the dispersion time around criticality, where , and describe the transition from logarithmic to exponential time. As a consequence of our results we establish, for example, that the dispersion time is in probability and in expectation in when , and provide qualitative bounds for its tail behavior.

EPCO-58. INTEGRATIVE PROTEOGENOMIC ANALYSES REVEAL INSIGHTS INTO SUBTYPE-SPECIFIC GLIOMA RISK

Abstract Gliomas are heterogeneous brain tumors with prognostically-significant subtypes and few risk factors. IDH-wildtype glioblastoma, the most common subtype, carries a dismal prognosis. Using the largest GWAS dataset with histological (11,304 cases, 304,523 controls) and molecular (3,418 cases, 8,156 controls) subtypes, we analyzed the plasma and brain proteome to uncover proteins associated with glioma susceptibility. Using protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) for 1,776 proteins in brain tissue, we identified 21 candidate proteins, including 9 associations with high probability (&amp;gt;70%) of colocalization (shared causal genetic variants for glioma risk and protein abundance). We confirmed known risk genes such as EGFR (p=1.9×10-35) and D2HGDH (p=1.1×10-5). We also identified novel risk proteins, including ENPP6, a choline phosphodiesterase overexpressed in glioma, for IDH-wildtype glioblastoma (OR=0.62, p=7.6×10-5), and galectin-3, a lectin encoded by a tumor fitness gene in CRISPR screens of glioma proliferation and a clinical drug target, for glioma overall (OR=1.37, p=1.3×10-5). Analyses of the plasma proteome using pQTLs for 1,362 proteins from 3 cohorts (N=88,838) identified 9 colocalized associations in whole blood. Most risk signals were subtype-specific, such as CRELD1 (p=2.5×10-5) for triple-negative glioblastoma. We found three candidate risk proteins for IDH-mutant 1p19q-intact glioma: immunoglobulin glycoprotein BCAM (p=9.6×10-8), neurotrophin receptor SorCS2 (p=3.6×10-5) and immune checkpoint PD-1 (p=1.1×10-5). Interestingly, genetically-predicted PD-1 levels had a larger effect on IDH-mutant 1p19q-intact (OR=2.75, 95% CI=1.61-4.69) than IDH-wildtype (OR=0.73, 95% CI=0.51-1.05) tumors, suggesting germline differences in immune checkpoint mechanisms among subtypes. For all colocalized candidates, genetically-predicted protein abundance was correlated with cis-regulated transcriptional activity in brain tissue. For example, genetically-predicted SORCS2 gene expression in brain tissue was associated with plasma SorCS2 levels (Z=16.1, p=1.1×10-68). Our analysis identified candidate proteins involved in immune response and neuronal proliferation, which may enable prioritization of drug targets and provide insight into disease mechanisms for glioma.

TMIC-65. USING BIOINFORMATICS TO INVESTIGATE THE TUMOR MICROENVIRONMENT OF DIFFUSE MIDLINE GLIOMA

Abstract Diffuse midline gliomas, H3K27-altered (DMG) are highly malignant brain tumors with a 2-year survival rate of less than 10 percent. These tumors are primarily localized to the pons and thalamus regions of the brain. The cellular compartment of the tumor microenvironment (TME) which surrounds a tumor is composed of tumor and non-tumor cells, such as immune cells and oligodendrocytes. Communication between tumor cells and non-tumor cells in the TME can promote tumor growth and targeting communication networks could improve patient outcomes. Using a bioinformatics approach and publicly available pediatric DMG single-cell RNA-sequence (scRNA-seq) data, several methods of communication (secreted signaling, cell-cell contact, and extracellular matrix) within the DMG TME were identified. Based on the high communication probability, outgoing and incoming networks from non-tumor cells and tumor cells were inferred, such as the Complement, Galectin, and CD96 pathways. Specific ligand-receptor interactions between non-tumor and tumor cells were also found, including LGALS9-HAVCR2, PDGFB/PDGFRA, and COL4A5/ITGAV. A subsequent literature review was performed to validate these identified pathways in other tumors, including gliomas, and inform future in vitro experiments with primary DMG cell lines.

Prospective Validation and Usability Evaluation of a Mobile Diagnostic App for Obstructive Sleep Apnea

Background/Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) classification relies on polysomnography (PSG) results. Current guidelines recommend the development of clinical prediction algorithms in screening prior to PSG. A recent intuitive and user-friendly tool (OSABayes), based on a Bayesian network model using six clinical variables, has been proposed to quantify the probability of OSA. Our aims are (1) to validate OSABayes prospectively, (2) to build a smartphone app based on the proposed model, and (3) to evaluate app usability. Methods: We prospectively included adult patients suspected of OSA, without suspicion of other sleep disorders, who underwent level I or III diagnostic PSG. Apnea–hypopnea index (AHI) and OSABayes probabilities were obtained and compared using the area under the ROC curve (AUC [95%CI]) for OSA diagnosis (AHI ≥ 5/h) and higher severity levels (AHI ≥ 15/h) prediction. We built the OSABayes app on ‘App Inventor 2’, and the usability was assessed with a cognitive walkthrough method and a general evaluation. Results: 216 subjects were included in the validation cohort, performing PSG levels I (34%) and III (66%). OSABayes presented an AUC of 83.6% [77.3–90.0%] for OSA diagnosis and 76.3% [69.9–82.7%] for moderate/severe OSA prediction, showing good response for both types of PSG. The OSABayes smartphone application allows one to calculate the probability of having OSA and consult information about OSA and the tool. In the usability evaluation, 96% of the proposed tasks were carried out. Conclusions: These results show the good discrimination power of OSABayes and validate its applicability in identifying patients with a high pre-test probability of OSA. The tool is available as an online form and as a smartphone app, allowing a quick and accessible calculation of OSA probability.

Faulting by the 2023 great earthquakes of Türkiye and associated stress field and its effects on built environment

Abstract Background Faulting induced by earthquakes and its analysis are of great importance for areas with high probability of earthquakes. However, there has been no particularly effective methods to evaluate the damage and applicable solutions for recovery. In this paper, the damage from Türkiye earthquakes is investigated by authors, which has important theoretical significance and practical value. On 6 February, 2023, two successive earthquakes with magnitudes (Mw) of 7.8 (called Pazarcık earthquake) and 7.6 (Ekinözü earthquake) occurred in the south-eastern part of Türkiye. The total length of the surface ruptures was more than 500 km long and resulted in striations reflecting the sinistral faulting and extensive ground deformations. In this study, the authors present the outcomes of the investigations on the surface ruptures, their characteristics, stress field associated with both earthquakes, shear strength property of fault segments and the damaging effects on various structures and made some recommendations with the purpose of how to build structures in active fault zones and decrease the negative effects of faulting on structures. Results Besides summarizing the main characteristics of the world-shaking Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet in southeast Türkiye in 2023, this study described the main features of the surface ruptures, their relation to the inferred crustal stresses in Türkiye, and the damaging effects on the major engineering structures. The observations and inferences are of great significance for understanding the causes of earthquakes and future seismic risk assessment. Various laboratory experiments were performed on the samples of fault gouge gathered from the sites of surface ruptures and these experimental results provided very valuable quantitative information on the constitutive models of the fault zones. The observations clearly showed that it is almost impossible to prevent damage on structures due to surface ruptures, if certain engineering principles such as increasing higher ductility, lowering gravitational center and/or the implementations of raft foundations are followed. Conclusions The stress state inferences obtained from the striation of the fault surface ruptures as well as from the focal plane solutions are expected to be useful to evaluate the regional stress state of the earthquake region. Assessments indicated that the stress states in Arabian plate and Anadolu platelet are different from each other. However, in-situ direct stress measurement techniques would be quite useful to validate the stress state inferred in this study. The laboratory experiments on samples gathered from the fault outcrops of the earthquakes using direct shear tests, stick-slip tests as well as conventional tensile, compressive and triaxial tests provided the quantitative values for the parameters of constitutive laws for fault zones, which can be utilized in the numerical simulation of earthquakes. If a fault break happens to be just passing underneath the structures, it is almost impossible for mankind to prevent the damage to structures. However, the authors made some recommendations to reduce the negative effects of fault ruptures on structures. These recommendations are such that the structures should be built as ductile and redundant structures with lower center of gravity and raft foundations. Dam construction should be on active faults should be avoided. If they are to be built for whatever reason, they should be of rock-fill type. As tubular structures and tunnels would be generally subjected forced displacement field, it is recommended to utilize flexible joints, segmented and enlargement to deal such displacement fields.

Study of the effectiveness factors of microsurgical treatment of cerebral arterial aneurysms

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in diagnostic methods and microsurgical techniques for treating arterial aneurysms of the cerebral vessels, there remains a high probability of mortality and persistent disability among the working population. AIM: To determine the factors influencing the effectiveness of surgical interventions in patients with cerebral arterial aneurysms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This scientific work presents the results of examination and surgical treatment of 86 patients operated on from 2017 to 2023 y. at the Neurosurgery Clinic of the National Hospital. The age of the patients ranged from 23 to 78 years (average age - 47±1.7 years), among them there were 48 (55.8%) men, 38 (44.2%) women. All patients underwent MRI or CT angiography of cerebral vessels; in 47 (54.6%) patients, cerebral aneurysm was confirmed by selective cerebral angiography. The size of the aneurysms ranged from miliary (3.0 mm to giant sizes 25.0-30.0 mm). RESULTS: The clinical picture of patients with ruptured arterial aneurysms was associated with the prevalence of subarachnoid hemorrhage, the location and volume of formed intracerebral hematomas in patients in the pre-hemorrhagic period with unruptured aneurysms - with the location and size of arterial aneurysms. One of the serious complications that arose during operations was intraoperative rupture (15.1%) of the aneurysmal sac at different stages of operations. The worst results with mortality up to 4.17% were observed in patients with ruptured arterial aneurysms, on the HH scale III, IV and 7-8, 9-10 points on the Glasgow scale. In cases where direct access to the aneurysm is difficult, it is advisable to perform subpial microresection of the altered medulla around the aneurysm. This allows you to avoid traumatic damage to the walls of the aneurysm and the development of spasm of arterial vessels. In order to avoid aneurysm rupture when isolating the aneurysm neck, it is advisable to temporarily apply special removable (temporary) clips to the proximal and distal segments of the supporting vessel of the aneurysm. After it was possible to isolate the neck of the aneurysm, a special clip was applied and, if possible, the patency and integrity of the vessel carrying the aneurysm and its branches were preserved. To determine the absence of blood flow in the aneurysm and assess the patency of arterial vessels, it is recommended to use intraoperative microvascular doplefography. CONCLUSION: The results of surgical treatment for ruptured aneurysms depended on the preoperative condition of the patients. Microsurgical clipping of arterial aneurysms effectively prevents the risk of recurrent subarachnoid hemorrhage. The absence of complications in patients during surgery and the early postoperative period does not guarantee the possibility of developing delayed complications that may require repeated operations.

The effect of the TNFα gene rs1800629 polymorphism on cytokine profile parameters in the complicated wound healing in combat trauma victims

Background. In the wound process, there is a high probability of complications in the form paratraumatic eczema (РТЕ), which determines the severity the course of wound repair. Genetic factors responsible for the regulation of cytokines a leading role in the etiopathogenesis of РТЕ. Aim — determine the relationship of TNFa gene rs1800629 with the development of РТЕ and IL-1ß, TNFα, IL-6. Materials and methods. The study included 162 patients after surgical interventions. Group I — 82 people with complications in the form PTE and II — 80 people without complications. The study rs1800629 TNFα gene was carried out by the poly- merase chain reaction method. The levels TNFα, IL-1β and IL-6 in the blood was determined by the enzyme immunoassay method. Results. A connection with PTE was established with of rs1800629 gene TNFα (p = 0.033 and p = 0.005). The genotypes GA (OR = 1.64; CI 0.83–3.24) and AA (OR = 2.94; CI 0.9–9.67), allele A (OR = 2.13; CI 1.26–3.6) rs1800629 influenced the increased chances of developing PTE. In group II the IL- 1β, TNFα, IL-6 indicators were increased (p &lt; 0.001) in carriers of the AA genotype rs1800629. Conclusion. rs1800629 TNFα gene is associated with development of PTE. An increase in the levels IL-1β, TNFα, IL-6 was associated with the presence of a pathogenetic factor — AA genotype rs1800629 TNFα gene in development of complications.

Factors Influencing the Attrition Rate of a 10-Week Multimodal Rehabilitation Program in Patients After Lung Transplant: A Neural Network Analysis

Background/Objectives: Despite the effectiveness of exercise and nutritional interventions to improve aerobic capacity and quality of life in lung transplant (LT) recipients, their compliance is low. Strategies to reduce the high attrition rate (participants lost over time) is a major challenge. Artificial neural networks (ANN) may assist in the early identification of patients with high risk of attrition. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of ANNs to identify prognostic factors for high attrition rate of a 10-week rehabilitation program after a LT. Methods: This prospective observational study included first-time LT recipients over 18 years of age. The main outcome for each patient was the attrition rate, which was estimated by the amount of missing data accumulated during the study. Clinical variables including malnutrition, sarcopenia, and their individual components were assessed at baseline. An ANN and regression analysis were used to identify the factors determining a high attrition rate. Results: Of the 41 participants, 17 (41.4%) had a high rate of attrition in the rehabilitation program. Only 23 baseline variables had no missing data and were included in the analysis, from which a low age-dependent body mass index (BMI) was the most important conditioning factor for a high attrition rate (p = 7.08 × 10−5), followed by end-stage respiratory disease requiring PT (p = 0.000111), low health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) (p = 0.0009078), and low handgrip strength (p = 0.023). Conclusions: The prevalence of high attrition rate in LT recipients is high. The profile of patients with a high probability of attrition includes those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, low BMI and handgrip strength, and reduced HRQoL.

Diagnostic Performance of a Newly-Launched Canadian Fast-Track Ultrasound Clinic by Rheumatologists for the Diagnosis of Giant Cell Arteritis.

Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) can present diagnostic challenges and early diagnosis is crucial due to potential ischemic complications. Recent guidelines suggest that a suspected diagnosis should be confirmed with temporal artery biopsy or imaging, including ultrasound (US). In our Canadian setting, point-of-care temporal artery US was near unavailable, and biopsy remains the standard of care. We hypothesize that launching a fast-track US clinic by rheumatologists may spare the need for a temporal artery biopsy. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the diagnostic performance of US in this newly-launched fast-track clinic. In this single-center retrospective cross-sectional analysis, 99 visits were identified from the fast-track clinic between January 2020 and July 2022. Each subject had an US according to a standard protocol for suspicion of either new-onset or relapse of GCA. Ultrasonographers were rheumatologists who acquired training on vascular US techniques before launching the clinic. For each patient presenting with suspected new-onset GCA, the pre-test probability was calculated using the Southend GCA probability score. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated using the rheumatologist clinical diagnosis as the gold standard for GCA diagnosis. A total of 22 subjects had a diagnostic of GCA and 77 had another diagnostic. Patients with and without GCA were, respectively, 81.8% vs 72.7% females, had a mean age of 76.6 ± 7.7 vs. 74.8 ± 9.8 years and a mean CRP of 73.4 ± 57.8 vs 38.3 ± 59.9 mg/L. Temporal artery US demonstrated a a sensitivity of 86.3% [95% confidence interval (CI), 65.1%-97.1%], a specificity of 90.9% (95% CI, 82.2%-96.3%), a PPV of 73.1% (95% CI, 56.8%-84.9%) and a NPV of 95.9% (95% CI, 89.0%-98.5%). 14 patients had a suspicion of relapse and were all correctly identified by the US. Among those with suspicion of new-onset 27, 34 and 24 US were performed for high, intermediate, and low pretest probability of GCA, respectively. The high-risk subgroup demonstrated higher PPV while similar sensitivity/specificity were observed between all three subgroups. Our results highlights the benefits of US as a key diagnostic tool for GCA, particularly when combined with clinical evaluations. An excellent discriminative ability for diagnosis of GCA was shown in this newly-launched clinic suggesting that the role of TAB may need to be redefined. These findings will guide on broader implementation of US programs for GCA.

Hector’s dolphin distribution at Kaikōura before and after a major earthquake

Catastrophic natural events can have major impacts on marine ecosystems, but effects on mobile predators, such as cetaceans, remain poorly understood. This study investigated whether the coastal distribution patterns of Hector’s dolphins Cephalorhynchus hectori hectori off Kaikōura, New Zealand, changed after the powerful Kaikōura earthquake in November 2016. Dolphin sightings from boat-based surveys conducted before (2013-2016) and after (2016-2020) the earthquake were binned into 18 sectors of 4 km length each. The dolphins’ occurrence across sectors was then compared during pre- and post-earthquake periods using generalised linear models. Areas of high and low occurrence probability were temporally stable for Hector’s dolphins from before to 1.5 yr post-quake. Historic sighting data (from the 1990s) matched with the observed high-occurrence areas, indicating decadal stability in distribution patterns. An increase in dolphin occurrence was noted in the final 2-4 yr post-quake period across most nearshore sectors. This was particularly noticeable in the historically low-use areas along the narrow shelf at the head of the deep Kaikōura Canyon. This observation could indicate increased population connectivity between dolphins using the northern and southern sections of the Kaikōura Peninsula. The dolphins’ occurrence patterns pre-quake at the sector level were broadly explained by water depth, distance to rivers, sea surface temperature and chlorophyll when explored with generalised additive models. We discuss scenarios that may explain the species’ persistent distribution patterns during natural perturbation events as well as synergies with other conservation measures.

Developmental Validation of a DIP-InDel/DIP-STR System for the Detection of Unbalanced DNA Mixtures.

Extracting "masked" minor donor information from an unbalanced DNA mixture stain is important for the identification of the person of interest. In recent years, a series of compound markers genotyped based on allele-specific amplifications have been proposed to detect minor contributors of mixed stains. In this study, we selected out 18 DIP-InDel markers from previous literatures and established a multiplex system encompassing 18 DIP-InDel markers and 6 DIP-STR markers in two separate reactions. The allele frequencies were estimated based on 200 samples, and 23 of the 24 DIP-linked length polymorphic markers had a relatively high probability of informative markers (I value >0.267), which indicated their potential usefulness in the Chinese Han population. Moreover, the multiplex was highly sensitive (requiring >0.025ng) and specific to human DNA. This system is capable of detecting the minor contributor comprising 1% in unbalanced mixtures of two individuals. The capacity of profiling cell-free DNA was also analyzed in few cases. At least one paternal allele could be detected in maternal plasma samples with gestation periods ranging from 27 to 40 weeks. To conclude, the DIP-linked length polymorphic markers may serve as a convenient method for detecting the presence of a minor donor in unbalanced mixtures and show promise for noninvasive prenatal diagnosis.

Estimating average treatment effects with only discrete covariates

AbstractWe propose a kernel smoothing method to estimate average treatment effects (ATE) when covariates are all discrete variables. This approach is based on Ouyang et al. (2009), who developed a Econometric Theory, 2009;25: 1–42 who developed least squares cross‐validation (CV) kernel smoothing method dealing with discrete covariates. This method automatically smoothes the irrelevant variables out of the regression model with a high probability, and avoids the problem of loss of efficiency related to the traditional nonparametric frequency‐based method. We derive the asymptotic distribution of our proposed ATE estimator. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications showcase the usefulness of the proposed method.

Online learning in sequential Bayesian persuasion: Handling unknown priors

We study a repeated information design problem faced by an informed sender who tries to influence the behavior of a self-interested receiver, through the provision of payoff-relevant information. We consider settings where the receiver repeatedly faces a sequential decision making (SDM) problem. At each round, the sender observes the realizations of random events in the SDM problem, which are only partially observable by the receiver. This begets the challenge of how to incrementally disclose such information to the receiver to persuade them to follow (desirable) action recommendations. We study the case in which the sender does not know random events probabilities, and, thus, they have to gradually learn them while persuading the receiver. We start by providing a non-trivial polytopal approximation of the set of the sender's persuasive information-revelation structures. This is crucial to design efficient learning algorithms. Next, we prove a negative result which also applies to the non-sequential case: no learning algorithm can be persuasive in high probability. Thus, we relax the persuasiveness requirement, studying algorithms that guarantee that the receiver's regret in following recommendations grows sub-linearly. In the full-feedback setting—where the sender observes the realizations of all the possible random events—, we provide an algorithm with O˜(T) regret for both the sender and the receiver. Instead, in the bandit-feedback setting—where the sender only observes the realizations of random events actually occurring in the SDM problem—, we design an algorithm that, given an α∈[1/2,1] as input, guarantees O˜(Tα) and O˜(Tmax⁡{α,1−α2}) regrets, for the sender and the receiver respectively. This result is complemented by a lower bound showing that such a regret trade-off is tight for α∈[1/2,2/3].

On the degree of uniformity measure for probability distributions

Abstract A key challenge in studying probability distributions is quantifying the inherent inequality within them. Certain parts of the distribution have higher probabilities than others, and our goal is to measure this inequality using the concept of mathematical diversity, a novel approach to examining inequality. We introduce a new measure $m_D(P)$, called the {\it degree of uniformity} measure on a given discrete probability space that generalizes the idea of the slope of secant of the {\it slope of diversity} curve. This measure generalizes the idea of degree of uniformity of a contiguous part $P=\{k_1,k_2\}$ in a probability space related to a random variable $X$, to an arbitrary measurable part $P$. We also demonstrate the truly scale free and self-contained nature of the concept of {\it degree of uniformity} by relating the measure of two parts $P_1$ and $P_2$ from completely unrelated distributions with random variables $X_1$ and $X_2$ that have completely different scales of variation.

The effect of cognitive emotion regulation on direct-acting antivirals adherence in patients with hepatitis C

IntroductionAdherence to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) could be a predictor of chronic viral hepatitis C (HCV) therapeutic failure. We examined the perceptions of patients receiving DAAs to determine how cognitive factors influence their decision to maintain adherence. Also, we explored the threshold of DAAs adherence for obtaining sustained virologic response (SVR) among patients with HCV, in order to better implement a strategy that improves the DAAs adherence in the future clinical practice.MethodsA single-arm prospective study was performed. Patients with HCV that started and completed DAAs treatment in the County Hospital of Craiova, Dolj, Romania, were enrolled. Patients’ medication adherence was assessed using the HCV-AD10 questionnaire, and the cognitive emotion regulation was measured with CERQ questionnaire (five positive/adaptive cognitive emotion-regulation domains and four negative/maladaptive domains). Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to explore the relationships between adherence and different factors. ROC-curves were used to evaluate the adherence threshold to achieve SVR. A linear regression model was performed to analyze the primary outcome (DAAs adherence) to be the target variable based on given independent variables (age, treatment duration, severity of HCV, the nine adaptive and maladaptive strategies).Results368 patients (mean age: 61 years) with HCV diagnosed 4.05 ± 6.38 (average) years ago were enrolled. Mean (±SD) adherence via HCV-AD10 was 91.51 ± 8.34, and the proportion of the participants achieving SVR was 96%. Patients with an adherence less than 84% (5 patients, 1.36%) was considered nonadherent and they have a high probability of not achieving response (sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 80%, respectively). We obtained significantly higher values of three adaptive strategies between adherent and nonadherent patients following DAAs treatment: in positive refocusing (p-value = 0.044), refocus on planning (p-value = 0.037), and positive reappraisal (p-value = 0.047).DiscussionThe interplay between the three adaptive strategies of the cognitive emotion regulation and the enhancement of DAAs adherence contributes to a more holistic comprehension of patient behavior in the context of HCV treatment. Increasing refocusing and planning using goal setting and assisting patients in establishing specific, achievable goals can be crucial strategies for clinicians aiming to improve adherence among their patients.