B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA)-directed chimeric antigen receptor T (CAR-T) therapy yield remarkable responses in patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (R/RMM). Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) reportedly exhibits distinct advantages in addressing the challenges posed by tumor heterogeneity in the distribution and genetic variations in R/RMM. Herein, the ctDNA of 108 peripheral blood plasma samples from patients with R/RMM was thoroughly investigated before administration of anti-BCMA CAR-T therapy to establish its predictive potential. Flow cytometry is used primarily to detect subgroups of T cells or CAR-T cells. In this study, several tumor and T cell effector-mediated factors were considered to be related to treatment failure by an integrat analysis, including higher percentages of multiple myeloma (MM) cells in the bone marrow (P=0.013), lower percentages of CAR-T cells in the peripheral blood at peak (P=0.037), and higher percentages of CD8+ T cells (P=0.034). Furthermore, there is a substantial correlation between high ctDNA level (>143ng/mL) and shorter progression-free survival (PFS) (P=0.007). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that high levels of ctDNA (>143ng/mL), MM-driven high-risk mutations (including IGLL5 [P=0.004], IRF4 [P=0.024], and CREBBP [P=0.041]), number of multisite mutations, and resistance-related mutation (ERBB4, P=0.040) were independent risk factors for PFS. Finally, a ctDNA-based risk model was built based on the above independent risk factors, which serves as an adjunct non-invasive measure of substantial tumor burden and a prognostic genetic feature that can assist in predicting the response to anti-BCMA CAR-T therapy. Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2100046474) and National Clinical Trial (NCT04670055, NCT05430945).
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