High Likelihood Of Occurrence Research Articles

MiRNAs contributing to the repair of tendon injury.

Tendon injury is one of the most common disorders of the musculoskeletal system, with a higher likelihood of occurrence in elderly individuals and athletes. In posthealing tendons, two undesirable consequences, tissue fibrosis and a reduction in mechanical properties, usually occur, resulting in an increased probability of rerupture or reinjury; thus, it is necessary to propose an appropriate treatment. Currently, most methods do not sufficiently modulate the tendon healing process and restore the function and structure of the injured tendon to those of a normal tendon, since there is still inadequate information about the effects of multiple cellular and other relevant signaling pathways on tendon healing and how the expression of their components is regulated. microRNAs are vital targets for promoting tendon repair and can modulate the expression of biological components in signaling pathways involved in various physiological and pathological responses. miRNAs are a type of noncoding ribonucleic acid essential for regulating processes such as cell proliferation, differentiation, migration and apoptosis; inflammatory responses; vascularization; fibrosis; and tissue repair. This article focuses on the biogenesis response of miRNAs while presenting their mechanisms in tendon healing with perspectives and suggestions.

The Roles of Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 (GLP-1) Receptor Agonists and Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 (SGLT-2) Inhibitors in Decreasing the Occurrence of Adverse Cardiorenal Events in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder characterized by increased serum glucose due to errors in insulin production or response. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus has continued to rise globally over the years, with roughly 7079 persons per 100,000 expected to be impacted by 2030. A vast number of patients with diabetes mellitus experience unfavorable side effects such as weight gain, hypoglycemia, and hepatorenal toxicity from the several diabetic medications available. These adverse effects may result in life-threatening consequences with a high likelihood of occurrence; therefore, ongoing efforts continue to develop medications with improved tolerability and better glycemic control. Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) are examples of new innovative targeted therapies to manage diabetes mellitus and potentially improve cardiorenal conditions. This review article details the specific mechanisms of action, potential side effects, and cardiorenal benefits of GLP-1RA and SGLT-2i therapies to fully understand their roles in combating type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D).

Financial and Safety Impact of Simulation-based Clinical Systems Testing on Pediatric Trauma Center Transitions.

Introduction:Simulation offers multiple tools that apply to medical settings, but little is known about the application of simulation to pediatric trauma workflow changes. Our institution recently underwent significant clinical changes in becoming an independent pediatric trauma center. We used a simulation-based clinical systems testing (SbCST) approach to manage change-associated risks. The purpose of this study was to describe our SbCST process, evaluate its impact on patient safety, and estimate financial costs and benefits.Methods:SbCST consisted of the following steps: (1) change-based needs assessment, in which stakeholders developed relevant simulation scenarios; (2) scenario implementation; and (3) postsimulation failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify latent safety threats (LSTs). LSTs were prioritized for mitigation based on the expected probability and severity of adverse event occurrences. We calculated the costs associated with the simulation process. We conservatively estimated SbCST cost savings using 3 approaches: (1) FMEA-based avoidance of adverse events; (2) avoidance of trauma readmissions; and (3) avoidance of medical liability lawsuits.Results:We implemented 2 simulation scenarios prechange. FMEA revealed 49 LSTs, of which 9 were highest priority (catastrophic severity and high likelihood of occurrence). These were prioritized and mitigated using the hospital’s quality/safety framework. Cost-benefit analysis based on FMEA event avoidance demonstrated net cost savings to the institution ranging from $52,000−227,000 over the 3-month postchange period. Readmission-based and liability-based estimates also produced favorable results.Conclusions:The SbCST approach identified multiple high-impact safety risks and financially benefited the institution in managing significant pediatric trauma clinical process changes.

A species distribution model of the Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis)

The Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) is regarded a Southern Hemisphere endemic found throughout the Southern Hemisphere, generally south of 60°S in austral summer. Here they have been routinely observed in highest densities adjacent to and inside the sea ice edge, and where they feed predominantly on krill. Detecting abundance trends regarding this species by employing visual monitoring is problematic. Partly this is because the whales are frequently sighted within sea ice where navigational safety concerns prevent ships from surveying. In this respect species-habitat models are increasingly recognized as valuable tools to predict the probability of cetacean presence, relative abundance or density throughout an area of interest and to gain insight into the ecological processes affecting these patterns. The objective of this study was to provide this background information for the above research needs and in a broader context use species distribution models (SDMs) to establish a current habitat suitability description for the species and to identify the main environmental covariates related to its distribution. We used filtered 464 occurrences to generate the SDMs. We selected eight predictor variables with reduced collinearity for constructing the models: mean annuals of the surface temperature (ºC), salinity (PSS), current velocity (m/s), sea ice concentration (fraction, %), chlorophyll-a concentration (mg/m³), primary productivity (g/m3/day), cloud cover (%), and bathymetry (m). Six modelling algorithms were tested and the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model demonstrated the best performance. Based on variable importance, those that best explained the environmental requirements of the species were sea ice concentration, chlorophyll-a concentration and topography of the sea floor (bathymetry), explaining in sum around 62% of the variance. Using the BART model, habitat preferences have been interpreted from patterns in partial dependence plots. Areas where the AMW have particularly high likelihood of occurrence are East Antarctica, NE of the Weddell Sea, areas around the northern tip of the Antarctica Peninsula, areas bordering the Scotia–Weddell Confluence. Given the association of AMWs with sea ice, the pagophilic character of their biology makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change and a near-perfect biological indicator for tracking these changes.

Therapeutic Plasma Exchange in Postpartum Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome: A Case Report

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Adult, non-infective, haemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) although a rare disease in itself, has a high likelihood of occurrence in pregnancy and immediate post partum period. It is an important differential diagnosis in the evaluation of thrombotic microangiopathies. Patients with post-partum HUS display a classical triad of microangiopathic haemolytic anaemia, acute nephropathy and thrombocytopenia. I hereby present a case of post partum HUS treated with therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of six sessions of TPE were performed daily, three sessions for consecutive days and remaining three sessions were performed on alternate days. All the procedures were carried out with Haemonetics MCS+ exchanging one plasma volume using fresh frozen plasma and saline as replacement fluid. Haemodialysis was started and four sessions were carried out on alternate days. RESULT: A 37 year old, 85 kg female, G2 P1, underwent emergency LSCS because of foetal distress at 38 weeks of pregnancy. Post surgery she developed decreasing urine output, anuria ensued. Emergency therapeutic plasma exchange was carried out within 24 hours of diagnosis. It could be found that with TPE, patient had improvement in renal function, decrease in LDH levels and increase in platelet count. Patient had sustained remission and discontinuation of haemodialysis. CONCLUSION: HUS is a disorder with high mortality and long term morbidity, if prompt treatment is not instituted. The decision to intervene with plasma exchange should be based upon the severity of thrombocytopenia, microangiopathic haemolytic anaemia and neurological abnormalities, even if the diagnosis and nomenclature is uncertain. Improved survival after this disorder has been attributed to aggressive treatment with plasma exchange therapy.

Unintentional Injuries and Sociodemographic Factors among Households in Ethiopia.

Background Unintentional injuries are a public health problem throughout the world including Africa. Most of the injury studies in Ethiopia are from the healthcare facility or workplace that does not reflect the problem at the community level. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the unintentional injuries and sociodemographic factors among households in Ethiopia. Methods This study was done from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2016. The survey collected information about unintentional injuries and injury mechanisms in the past 12 months among 16,650 households. The selection of households was from nine regions and two city administrations of Ethiopia using a stratified cluster sampling procedure. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the data and the chi-square test was applied as a test of significance and a p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Result Of the 16,650 households that participated in the study, 394 (2.4%) reported that at least one household member suffered from an unintentional injury in the past 12 months. The leading mechanisms of injury were unintentional falls (152 falls, 33.2%) and road traffic incidents (96 incidents, 21.0%). Among household members who were injured, 84.3% survived and 15.7% died because of the injury. Divorce marital status of the household head [AOR: 2.12, 95% CI (1.12–4.41)] and family size of the household ≥ 6 [AOR:1.65, 95% CI (1.21–2.26)] were associated with high likelihood of occurrence of an injury, while lowest household wealth index [AOR: 0.69, 95% CI (0.50–0.95)] was protective against injuries. Conclusion A low prevalence of unintentional injury was found from the community in this survey, which might be due to the tendency of the community to report severe injuries. Fall and road traffic accidents were the leading mechanisms of selected sociodemographic factors of the households that were associated with unintentional injuries. Injury prevention efforts should focus on falls and transportation injuries with special attention to the sociodemographic context of the communities.

Exploration of some distributional properties, parameter estimates and applications of the wrapped quasi Lindley distribution

A circular distribution called Wrapped Quasi Lindley distribution with two parameters has been recently proposed, but apart from the expressions for pdf, cdf, their circular representations, characteristic function and the maximum likelihood equations for the proposed distribution, no other properties of the distribution as well as the characteristics of the parameter estimates were explored by the authors. A slight error has also been observed in the expression for pdf of the distribution. Also, the application of the distribution in modeling real life data was not exhibited. Further, the form of the characteristic function in the paper is not compact and there is no closed form of the expression of the trigonometric moments. This paper thus aims to rectify the expression for pdf and explore a few descriptive measures and distributional properties of the Wrapped Quasi Lindley distribution and derive closed form expressions for the characteristic function and hence the trigonometric moments using an identity. it is found that the operations of wrapping and convoluting linear distributions around unit circle are commutative. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the distribution are shown to be consistent through a simulation study. The utility of the Wrapped Quasi Lindley model to a real-life data set on orientations is shown and the goodness-of-fit of the distribution is assessed and compared to that of the Wrapped Exponential and Wrapped Lindley distribution with the help of the log-likelihood, AIC and BIC measures. Further, the probabilities of the orientations to lie in a certain interval are estimated on the basis of the fitted Wrapped Quasi Lindley distribution. The distribution is found to be more appropriate in modeling the situations where the directions having lower magnitude have higher likelihood of occurrence.

Microcrystography as standard method of saliva assessment

Objective : Standardization of microcrystallization method as a basis for studying saliva parameters affected by various factors. Methods : An improvement of the oral fluid crystallography technique is proposed. 108 children aged 7–12 years were examined. The prevalence and intensity of caries, the degree of activity and growth of caries, and the simplified hygiene index were determined. Mixed saliva samples were taken according to a standardized microcrystallography technique in its own modification. Results : The proportion of high-quality samples of droplets and facies of saliva as a whole was 98 %. During orthodontic treatment, changes in the state of the oral cavity and oral fluid were revealed: a deterioration in the level of hygiene in children with removable orthodontic equipment with an increase in the frequency of occurrence of types II and III saliva microcrystallization (SMC) was almost doubled. After orthodontic treatment, there was a recovery of hygienic parameters and the recorded frequency of I type SMC was increased. Conclusions : A change in the type of SMC depends on a number of factors: oral hygiene, the degree of caries activity and the presence of its progression. A significant increase in the frequency of registration of type III SMC during orthodontic treatment demonstrates a higher likelihood of occurrence and the decompensated nature of the carious process, increases the risk of inflammatory and allergic reactions from the tissues of the oral cavity.

Water pollution affects fish community structure and alters evolutionary trajectories of invasive guppies (Poecilia reticulata)

Anthropogenic habitat alterations have the potential to affect both, ecological dynamics of communities and populations, as well as evolutionary processes within populations. Invasive species may benefit from anthropogenic disturbance, such as water pollution, to which they sometimes seem more resistant than native ones. They also allow investigating evolutionary divergence among populations occurring along pollution gradients. We assessed fish communities at 55 sampling sites in the degraded and heavily overstocked Mutara Rangelands of north-eastern Rwanda (upper Nile drainage), which receive pollution from domestic wastewater and cattle dung. Diverse fish communities became apparent that included invasive guppies (Poecilia reticulata, Poeciliidae), and canonical correspondence analyses found significant differentiation of community structures along several environmental parameters (condensed into principal components), including pollution-effects. As predicted, generalized linear models found guppies to have a higher likelihood of occurrence at polluted sites. Local abundances of guppies, however, decreased at polluted sites. Since guppies are color-polymorphic, and color patterns have a heritable basis, they allow inferences regarding both pollution-induced suppression of male ornamentation (e.g., through xenestrogens) and evolutionary population divergence. We thus quantified different ornament types (numbers and percent body surface cover). ANCOVAs uncovered several weak (based on effect strengths), but statistically significant pollution-effects and interactions with other environmental parameters. The direction of several interaction effects was similar for blue/black and red/orange ornaments, while white/iridescent ornaments responded dissimilarly. As responses differed between ornament types, they likely reflect evolutionary divergence due to site-specific alterations of selective regimes rather than developmental inhibition of male secondary sexual characters. We propose that pollution affects local fitness landscapes resulting, e.g., from predation and mate competition (as a function of local abundances), altogether driving evolutionary divergence of sexually selected traits. This study highlights how human activities not only impact ecological dynamics, but—mediated by altered Eco-Evo dynamics—might change the evolutionary trajectories of populations.

Prediction of Crime Occurrence using Multinomial Logistic Regression

In order to uncover hidden patterns and correlations, data analysis examines large amounts of data. Analysis of crime isa systematic approach to the identification and analysis of crime patterns and itstrends. This plays a role in the planning of problems with crime and in formulating strategies for crime prevention. Instead of focusing on causes of crime such as criminal offender background, this work focuses primarily crime factors happened on every day. This work can predict the category of crime that has a higher likelihood of occurrence in those areas and can visualize in the form of histogram and heat map by category of crime, crime by day of week and month. The study depends on a lot of variables like class, latitude, longitude, etc. For forecast, the multinomial logistic regression method is used. For weekdays, the district and the hour of the accident are used as predictors.This algorithm is used because its target variable has more than two values and no ordering in the response variable.This provides greater efficiency for handling datasets with multi class labels. This forecast can be helpful in predicting the occurrence of crime in vulnerable areas, which in turn minimizes the crime rate by providing the patrol in those areas.

Vegetation structure and effects of human use of the dambos ecosystem in northern Mozambique

The Niassa National Reserve (NNR) is the most extensive conservation area in Mozambique and the third largest in Africa, encompassing 42,000 km2 of endemic miombo vegetation. Dambos wetlands occur within the wooded grassland and grassland vegetation of NNR and provide a wide range of Ecosystem Services (ES), including life support for animal species, regulation of water flow and prevention of soil erosion. It also generates income for the livelihoods of local communities by providing land for agriculture and harvesting of non-timber products. The dynamics of these ecosystems is poorly understood despite the contribution of the dambos to global biodiversity and ES. This research is the first preliminary assessment of the vegetation structure and composition of six dambos within NNR, selected using Google Earth, MODIS satellite images and an exploratory field visit. Field data collection was performed using a two-stage systematic sampling approach, along transect lines of 100 × 10 m (0.1 ha), perpendicular to the dambos' flow. Square plots of 0.25 m2 were established for grass survey within the transects where grass vegetation was measured, counted and identified. Data were analyzed with R software. The sociological position of each species was analyzed with regard to the vertical structure while for horizontal structure, the abundance, dominance, frequency and Importance Value Index (IVI) were determined. In order to understand the differences between dambos, evenness (H) and reciprocal of Simpson's heterogeneity index (Hill's N2) were calculated. Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA) and Cluster Analysis were also used to characterize the surveyed species communities. A total of 58 transects (5.8 ha) and 336 subplots were assessed, recording 110 woody and 73 grass species, respectively. The most common tree species were Vitex doniana, Burkea africana, Syzygium cordatum and Annona senegalensis, while for grass vegetation the most abundant species were Andropogon eucomus and Helictotrichon turgidulum. According to the IVI, the most dominant tree and shrub species were V. doniana, Pseudolachnostylis maprouneifolia, A. senegalensis and S. cordatum. Homogeneity (Hill's N2 = 18.92) and evenness (H = −4.27) were, on average, low in all dambos. Dambo 2 was the most heterogeneous (Hill's N2 = 18.21) while dambo 1 was the least heterogeneous (Hill's N2 = 5.71). Dambo 6 was most equitable (H = −1.35) whereas dambo 2 the least equitable (H = −3.72). Using species abundance and based on PCoA and cluster analysis, four main groups of dambos were identified based mainly on the water gradient, with data variation captured by the first three axes reaching almost 83%. The p-value (0.42), suggested no significant differences between species communities in the dambos, and thus, human disturbances appear not to be enough to modify dambos microenvironment. Accordingly, the results suggest that human activities, at this level, do not necessarily affect the structure and diversity of dambos in the NNR. The results also suggest that the species A. senegalensis, Combretum psidioides, Crossopteryx febrifuga, Protea nitida, P. maprouneifolia and S. cordatum can be used as indicator dambo species in NNR, with high likelihood of occurrence.

PAS3-HSID: a Dynamic Bio-Inspired Approach for Real-Time Hot Spot Identification in Data Streams

Hot spot identification is a very relevant problem in a wide variety of areas such as health care, energy or transportation. A hot spot is defined as a region of high likelihood of occurrence of a particular event. To identify hot spots, location data for those events is required, which is typically collected by telematics devices. These sensors are constantly gathering information, generating very large volumes of data. Current state-of-the-art solutions are capable of identifying hot spots from big static batches of data by means of variations of clustering or instance selection techniques that pre-process the original input data, providing the most relevant locations. However, these approaches neglect to address changes in hot spots over time. This paper presents a dynamic bio-inspired approach to detect hot spots in big data streams. This computational intelligence method is designed and applied to the transportation sector as a case study to identify incidents in the roads caused by heavy goods vehicles. We adapt an immune-based algorithm to account for the temporary aspect of hot spots inspired by the idea of pheromones, which is then subsequently implemented using Apache Spark Streaming. Experimental results on real datasets with up to 4.5 million data points—provided by a telematics company—show that the algorithm is capable of quickly processing large streaming batches of data, as well as successfully adapting over time to detect hot spots. The outcome of this method is twofold, both reducing data storage requirements and demonstrating resilience to sudden changes in the input data (concept drift).

Analysing project risks in Ghana’s real estate industry

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse project risks in Ghana’s real estate construction industry in terms of likelihood of occurrence, severity of impact and controllability.Design/methodology/approachA quantitative research approach was used in this study to address the research objective. The study population consisted project managers, architects, surveyors and contractors from 17 members of the Ghana Real Estate Developers Association (GREDA) in Ghana. Random stratified sampling technique was used to select 97 participants from these firms. A structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data, whereas descriptive statistics were used to present findings.FindingsAll risks identified have some level of likelihood of occurrence, extent of severity of impact and controllability. Market risks, technical risks and environmental risks are more likely to occur. Market risks, technical risks and environmental risks had the highest severity of impact. Financial risks, market risks, managerial risks and technical risks are the most controllable. Among all risks, environmental risks are the direst because they have high likelihood of occurrence and severity of impact but very low controllability. Real estate construction firms (developers) are therefore expected to prioritize remedy of environmental risks.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is based on self-reported perception of project parties on the likelihood, severity of impact and controllability of real estate project risk factors. Firms outside of GREDA were not included in the survey. Therefore, generalisation of these risk factors for the entire construction industry should be done with caution.Practical implicationsThe research results show that Ghanaian real estate developers are aware of the existence of the risks which impact on the performance of the industry. To effectively and efficiently manage these risk factors, project parties must understand the likelihood of occurrence, severity of impact and controllability of the risk factors, as well as individual firm’s responsibilities and capabilities to manage them. Such knowledge helps project managers to prioritise risks in managing them in the face of scarce resources. From an academic research perspective, the paper contributes to a conceptual risk assessment framework for the real estate industry.Originality/valueThe paper’s main contributions relate to the introduction of real estate construction sector-specific factors to project risk management modelling.

Editorial

Welcome to the fourth issue of the Journal of Construction Business and Management. The themes covered in this issue are related to information technologies, building materials, risk factors and practices used in the procurement of construction projects. These papers expose the readers to innovative technologies, career advancement, risk factors, alternative building materials and cost analysis that fills the key gaps in knowledge. The issue contains five articles that were written by authors based in Nigeria and South Africa. Overall, twelve authors produced these articles aimed at strengthening the debate in and improving research undertaken in the area of the management of construction project organizations and delivery processes.&#x0D; The first paper by Olugboyega and Aina examines the Levels of Details of Building Information Models being generated by two hundred and eighty-two construction professionals in Lagos State, Nigeria using respondents driven sampling techniques. The authors found that the levels of generating BIM visualization purposes were very high in the study area. Paper two by Dada investigates the progression of Quantity Surveyors towards developing a career path framework for Quantity Surveyors in private practice in Nigeria. The proposed framework demonstrates the benchmark necessary for resolving common problems about career progression towards promoting harmonious working relationship and quality service delivery in Quantity Surveying practice. Leo-Olagbaye and Odeyinka’s paper assessed the risk factors encountered in the delivery of road projects in Osun State, Nigeria. The study results revealed that the risk factors on these projects with a high likelihood of occurrence are the scope of work, defective design, error and rework and change in design, in order of magnitude. Paper four by Alade, Oyebade and Nzewi examines the availability and level of usage of Local Building Materials (LBM) in Ado-Ekiti, South Western Nigeria. Based on information provided by One Hundred and Fifty construction professionals, the research found that LBMs such as stone, timber, laterite, clay and bamboo were available in sufficient quantities in the study area for building construction. The final paper by Windapo, Moghayedi, Oliphant and Adediran explored the components of cost on construction projects in South Africa using a qualitative research approach. The study found that the primary cost constituents of construction projects were building materials and sub-contracted work, accounting for 63.69% and 74.6% of the value of renovation and new construction work respectively, and recommends that the sub-contractor and building material inputs in construction projects should be carefully managed to ensure that construction projects are completed effectively and efficiently.&#x0D; Lastly, I wish to acknowledge all authors who submitted papers for consideration, members of the JCBM Editorial Board and panel of reviewers for their support, timeous review and comments that have helped in defining and improving the quality of manuscripts submitted to the JCBM for review. In conclusion, we welcome feedback and suggestions from readers towards improving the quality of the journal and in maintaining the integrity of the findings published.&#x0D; Abimbola Windapo PhD&#x0D; Editor-in-chief&#x0D;

Assessment of the Likelihood of Risk Occurrence on Tendering and Procurement of Construction Projects

The construction industry is plagued by risks above other industries due to its unique features which include the complexity of building activities, extended period of construction, complicated processes, financial intensity and dynamic organisational structure. These risks are not adequately dealt with and result in increased cost, time and reduced quality. While many types of research have been conducted on construction risks, only a few types of research have investigated the impact of risk (at tendering and procurement stage) on construction projects before they commence. Meanwhile, risk issues are better solved at bidding and procurement phase than construction phase as the case has been. Therefore, this paper examines the likelihood, degree of impact and probability of risk occurrence on tendering and procurement of construction projects. It also investigates the significant sources of tendering and procurement risks, the level of awareness and adoption of risk management techniques in construction tendering and procurement. The questionnaire for the study was administered on building contractors and consultants. A total of 44 questionnaires were retrieved and used for the analysis of the study. The statistical tools used for analysis are frequencies, percentages, mean scores and t test. The findings of the study revealed 17 significant sources of risk among the 35 that were investigated. Risks with high likelihood of occurrence, the degree of impact and high probability of occurrence were also indicated in the study. Based on the findings, it was concluded that respondents are aware and adopt risk management techniques on construction projects, but their adoption is at response level rather than identification level. Therefore, the recommendation of the study is that awareness should be created on the need for risk identification before construction projects commence. This should be implemented at professional and organizational level. Construction stakeholders should guard against risks with a high degree of impact and probability of occurrence during tendering and procurement of construction projects. Therefore, this study contributes to the body of knowledge by investigating the significant sources of risks to tendering and procurement, likelihood of risk occurrence, impact of risks and probability of risk occurrence in tendering and procurement.&#x0D; Keywords: Construction projects, Cost overrun, Impact of risk, Probability of risk, Procurement, Sources of risk, Tendering and procurement.

Sublethal Effects of Cyantraniliprole and Imidacloprid on Feeding Behavior and Life Table Parameters of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae).

The green peach aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is an agricultural pest that seriously infests many crops worldwide. This study used electrical penetration graphs (EPGs) and life table parameters to estimate the sublethal effects of cyantraniliprole and imidacloprid on the feeding behavior and hormesis of M. persicae The sublethal concentrations (LC30) of cyantraniliprole and imidacloprid against adult M. persicae were 4.933 and 0.541 mg L(-1), respectively. The feeding data obtained from EPG analysis indicated that the count probes and number of short probes (<3 min) were significantly increased when aphids were exposed to LC30 of imidacloprid-treated plants. In addition, the phloem-feeding behavior of M persicae was significantly impaired on fed tobacco plants treated with cyantraniliprole and imidacloprid at LC30 Analysis of life table parameters indicated that the growth and reproduction of F1 generation aphids were significantly affected when initial adults were exposed to LC30 of cyantraniliprole and imidacloprid. The nymphal period, female longevity, total preoviposition period, and mean generation time were significantly prolonged when initial adults were exposed to LC30 of imidacloprid. By comparison, these parameters were prolonged but not significantly in the cyantraniliprole treatment. The fecundity and gross reproductive rate were significantly increased in the treated groups. Similarly, the net reproductive rate was greater in the treated group than the control group. Our results indicate that treatment with LC30 of imidacloprid and cyantraniliprole would lead to a hormetic response of M. persicae, with higher likelihood of occurrence when initial adults were exposed to LC30 of cyantraniliprole.

Fabrication and dielectric properties of modified calcium (Pb0.75Ba0.25)(Zr0.7Ti0.3)O3 ceramics

The aim of the present work is to report investigations concerning the influence of homovalent modificators on relaxor properties of PBZT 25/70/30 ceramics. The selection of the proper homovalent additive was very important. Literature reports as well as data taken from the periodic table indicated, that calcium ions substitute themselves for lead ions with high likelihood of occurrence. The investigations showed that the substitution significantly changed the microstructure of ceramics – with grains of calcium modified ceramics decreasing and density increasing. The XRD measurements indicate that the pure PBZT ceramics as well as calcium dopant were characterised by tetragonal structure with space group I4 /mmm. Addition of calcium leads to a slight decrease in the lattice constant and crystal structure. The calcium modification also changes the dielectric properties. The temperature characteristic of the dielectric constant achieved a broadened maximum at temperature T m , which decreases with increasing Ca content. The properties typical for ferroelectric relaxors weaken with increasing calcium dopant.

Online Tool to Improve Stratification of Adverse Events in Stroke Clinical Trials.

Knowing characteristic adverse events (AEs) and their incidence among patients participating in acute stroke trials may assist interpretation of future studies. We aimed to develop an online tool to inform stroke trial safety. We identified relevant AEs from patients within the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA), using receiver operating characteristic principles. We modeled their incidence on patient age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and comorbidities using binary logistic regression. Models with an R(2) >5% were deemed powerful enough to predict expected AE incidences and were included. The calculator was developed using programs R and Visual Studios. Forty-eight of the most common AEs were identified and incorporated into the IschAEmic Stroke Calculator. The calculator, publicly available at http://www.vistacollaboration.org calculates the expected incidence of AEs or groups of AEs in a trial cohort and where possible compares them with the observed incidence. The IschAEmic Stroke Calculator is an open access resource to support safety interpretation within acute stroke trials. Prediction of AEs with higher likelihood of occurrence may direct preventive clinical measures.

Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid.

Concerns regarding the long-term viability of threatened and endangered plant species are increasingly warranted given the potential impacts of climate change and habitat fragmentation on unstable and isolated populations. Orchidaceae is the largest and most diverse family of flowering plants, but it is currently facing unprecedented risks of extinction. Despite substantial conservation emphasis on rare orchids, populations continue to decline. Spiranthes parksii (Navasota ladies' tresses) is a federally and state-listed endangered terrestrial orchid endemic to central Texas. Hence, we aimed to identify potential factors influencing the distribution of the species, quantify the relative importance of each factor and determine suitable habitat for future surveys and targeted conservation efforts. We analysed several geo-referenced variables describing climatic conditions and landscape features to identify potential factors influencing the likelihood of occurrence of S. parksii using boosted regression trees. Our model classified 97 % of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, and indicated that probability of existence was correlated with climatic conditions and landscape features. The most influential variables were mean annual precipitation, mean elevation, mean annual minimum temperature and mean annual maximum temperature. The most likely suitable range for S. parksii was the eastern portions of Leon and Madison Counties, the southern portion of Brazos County, a portion of northern Grimes County and along the borders between Burleson and Washington Counties. Our model can assist in the development of an integrated conservation strategy through: (i) focussing future survey and research efforts on areas with a high likelihood of occurrence, (ii) aiding in selection of areas for conservation and restoration and (iii) framing future research questions including those necessary for predicting responses to climate change. Our model could also incorporate new information on S. parksii as it becomes available to improve prediction accuracy, and our methodology could be adapted to develop distribution maps for other rare species of conservation concern.

Epidemiological investigation of bovine tuberculosis herd breakdowns in Spain 2009/2011.

We analyzed the most likely cause of 687 bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns detected in Spain between 2009 and 2011 (i.e., 22% of the total number of breakdowns detected during this period). Seven possible causes were considered: i) residual infection; ii) introduction of infected cattle from other herds; iii) sharing of pastures with infected herds; iv) contiguous spread from infected neighbor herds; v) presence of infected goats in the farm; vi) interaction with wildlife reservoirs and vii) contact with an infected human. For each possible cause a decision tree was developed and key questions were included in each of them. Answers to these key questions lead to different events within each decision tree. In order to assess the likelihood of occurrence of the different events a qualitative risk assessment approach was used. For this purpose, an expert opinion workshop was organized and ordinal values, ranging from 0 to 9 (i.e., null to very high likelihood of occurrence) were assigned. The analysis identified residual infection as the most frequent cause of bTB breakdowns (22.3%; 95%CI: 19.4–25.6), followed by interaction with wildlife reservoirs (13.1%; 95%CI: 10.8–15.8). The introduction of infected cattle, sharing of pastures and contiguous spread from infected neighbour herds were also identified as relevant causes. In 41.6% (95%CI: 38.0–45.4) of the breakdowns the origin of infection remained unknown.Veterinary officers conducting bTB breakdown investigations have to state their opinion about the possible cause of each breakdown. Comparison between the results of our analysis and the opinion from veterinary officers revealed a slight concordance. This slight agreement might reflect a lack of harmonized criteria to assess the most likely cause of bTB breakdowns as well as different perceptions about the importance of the possible causes. This is especially relevant in the case of the role of wildlife reservoirs.