High Latitudes Research Articles

Predictive models for photosynthetic active radiation irradiance in temperate climates

This research evaluated 10 different empirical models designed for predicting Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) at higher latitudes, addressing atmospheric conditions specific to these regions. The research introduces the Musleh-Rahman (MR) model, which substitutes Diffuse Horziontal Irradiance (DHI) with Clear Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), Ozone and Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm (AOD550) sourced for satellite reanalysis data, achieving a Mean Bias Deviation (MBD) of 0.19 % and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 12.42 W/m2. Furthermore, when applied to six untested locations, results demonstrate that the MR model outperformed the best performing empirical model with an MBD improvement of 3.68 % and an RMSE of 4.28 W/m2, whereas, when compared to machine learning models, the Light Gradient Boost Model (LGBM), had an MBD of −3.85 %. The MR model also maintained consistency across seasonal and density evaluations, attaining an R2 value as high as 0.9709, thereby highlighting the significant benefits of integrating satellite-sourced atmospheric data into PAR prediction models. Moreover, the research illustrated that substituting DHI with Clear DNI, Ozone, and AOD550 not only reduces MBD and boosts R2 values but also amplifies the model's applicability and accuracy in capturing early PAR peaks and reducing overestimations through precise adjustments in Ozone and AOD550 levels. This highlights the benefits of incorporating satellite-derived atmospheric data into PAR predictions models.

Efficient Low-Temperature Nutrient Removal from Agricultural Digestate Using Microalgae

Humanity is facing an energy crisis triggered by the depletion of fossil fuels, rapid industrialization, and the growthof the global population. These trendsput an emphasis on searching for alternative energy sources. Additionally, the rising concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is driving climate change, which poses serious threats. In this scenario, microalgae emerge as a promising solution for both sustainable energy production and CO2 sequestration. Digestate, a nutrient-rich by-product of anaerobic digestion, is considered a cost-effective nutrient source for microalgae cultivation. Utilizing digestate not only enhances the sustainability and economic feasibility of microalgal biofuels but also offers a method for wastewater treatment. Nevertheless, the application of digestate is limited by its high optical density and substantialamount of total solids.In this study, several pretreatment methods were tested to increase the feasibility of digestate application for microalgae cultivation. Our findings show that various centrifugation methods and vacuum filtration decrease the content of total solids but are not effective in reducing optical density. Although the use of microalgae in treating various wastewaters has shown promising outcomes, the effectiveness of nutrient removal at low temperatures remainslargely unexplored.To fill this gap, green microalga Chlorella sorokiniana was cultivated in pretreated diluted liquid digestate in dynamic springtime weather conditions in a covered open race-way pond integrated into a biogas plant.During the cultivation, high solar irradiance and low temperatures were recorded resulting in suboptimal conditions for C. sorokinianagrowth. Although low productivity of C. sorokiniana was detected, the nutrient removal efficiency was high. C. sorokiniana could efficiently remove 83% of nitrogen and 85% of phosphorus showing very promising results of the use of microalgae for wastewater treatment in high latitude regions.

Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts

Climate change will likely shift plant and microbial distributions, creating geographic mismatches between plant hosts and essential microbial symbionts (e.g., ectomycorrhizal fungi, EMF). The loss of historical interactions, or the gain of novel associations, can have important consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and plant migration potential, yet few analyses exist that measure where mycorrhizal symbioses could be lost or gained across landscapes. Here, we examine climate change impacts on tree-EMF codistributions at the continent scale. We built species distribution models for 400 EMF species and 50 tree species, integrating fungal sequencing data from North American forest ecosystems with tree species occurrence records and long-term forest inventory data. Our results show the following: 1) tree and EMF climate suitability to shift toward higher latitudes; 2) climate shifts increase the size of shared tree-EMF habitat overall, but 35% of tree-EMF pairs are at risk of declining habitat overlap; 3) climate mismatches between trees and EMF are projected to be greater at northern vs. southern boundaries; and 4) tree migration lag is correlated with lower richness of climatically suitable EMF partners. This work represents a concentrated effort to quantify the spatial extent and location of tree-EMF climate envelope mismatches. Our findings also support a biotic mechanism partially explaining the failure of northward tree species migrations with climate change: reduced diversity of co-occurring and climate-compatible EMF symbionts at higher latitudes. We highlight the conservation implications for identifying areas where tree and EMF responses to climate change may be highly divergent.

The corona of a fully convective star with a near-polar flare

In 2020, the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) observed a rapidly rotating M7 dwarf, TIC 277539431, producing a flare at $81^ circ $ latitude, the highest latitude flare located to date. This is in stark contrast to solar flares that occur much closer to the equator, typically below $30^ circ $. The mechanisms that allow flares at high latitudes to occur are poorly understood. We studied five sectors of TESS monitoring, and obtained 36 ks of XMM-Newton observations to investigate the coronal and flaring activity of TIC 277539431. From the observations, we infer the optical flare frequency distribution; flare loop sizes and magnetic field strengths; the soft X-ray flux, luminosity, and coronal temperatures; as well as the energy, loop size, and field strength of a large flare in the XMM-Newton observations. We find that the corona of TIC 277539431 does not differ significantly from other low-mass stars on the canonical saturated activity branch with respect to coronal temperatures and flaring activity, but shows lower luminosity in soft X-ray emission by about an order of magnitude, consistent with other late M dwarfs. The lack of X-ray flux, the high-latitude flare, the star's viewing geometry, and the otherwise typical stellar corona taken together can be explained by the migration of flux emergence to the poles in rapid rotators like TIC 277539431 that drain the star's equatorial regions of magnetic flux, but preserve its ability to produce powerful flares.

Effects of overwintering on the transcriptome and fitness traits in a damselfly with variable voltinism across two latitudes

Winter diapause consists of cessation of development that allows individuals to survive unfavourable conditions. Winter diapause may bear various costs and questions have been raised about the evolutionary mechanisms maintaining facultative diapause. Here, we explored to what extent a facultative winter diapause affects life-history traits and the transcriptome in the damselfly Ischnura elegans, and whether these effects were latitude-specific. We collected adult females at central and high latitudes and raised their larvae in growth chambers. Larvae were split into a non-diapausing and post-winter (diapausing) cohort, were phenotyped and collected for a gene expression analysis. At the phenotypic level, we found no difference in survival between the two cohorts, and the post-winter cohort was larger and heavier than the non-winter cohort. These effects were mostly independent of the latitude of origin. At the transcriptomic level, wintering affected gene expression with a small fraction of genes significantly overlapping across latitudes, especially those related to morphogenesis. In conclusion, we found clear effects of diapause on the phenotype but little evidence for latitudinal-specific effects of diapause. Our results showed a shared transcriptomic basis underpinning diapause demonstrated, here, at the intraspecific level and supported the idea of evolutionary convergence of the response to diapause across organisms.

Holocene biome reconstruction on the Chinese loess plateau based on pollen

Reconstruction of past vegetation changes is critical for sustainable development in the fragile and highly eroded ecosystems on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) under global change, particularly in light of future warming events. In this study, we collected fossil pollen data from 40 sites to reconstruct the Holocene (since 11 ka) vegetation pattern of the CLP using the biomization method. The results demonstrate that the CLP vegetation during the entire Holocene was dominated by grassland landscapes in most areas and periods, whereas the forest landscape only developed in some areas during certain periods. Steppe vegetation rather than forest vegetation was distributed in the central region of the CLP. Six forest biomes were primarily distributed in the southwestern and northeastern plateau high-altitude areas, showing notable expansion toward low latitudes and longitudes during the early to mid-Holocene. The steppe biome showed a rather wide distribution, primarily in the center and south, and especially in the expanded western region during the Early Holocene. Minor variations were observed for the widely distributed steppe biomes that shifted to high longitudes and latitudes during the Holocene. The desert biome was identified in the relatively restricted western and northern regions of China. Reconstructed biome spatial distributions showed a large vegetation gradient on the CLP. This suggests that variations in forest biomes on the CLP were potentially influenced by changes in precipitation. Different topographies within the same area led to different biomes. In addition, increased human activity may cause vegetation destruction.

Global climate modeling of the Jupiter troposphere and effect of dry and moist convection on jets

The atmosphere of Jupiter is characterized by banded jets, including an equatorial super-rotating jet, by an intense moist convective activity, and by perturbations exerted by vortices, waves, and turbulence. Even after space exploration missions to Jupiter and detailed numerical modeling of Jupiter, questions remain about the mechanisms underlying the banded jets and the role played by dry and moist convection in maintaining these jets. We report three-dimensional simulations of the Jupiter weather layer using a global climate model (GCM) called Jupiter-DYNAMICO, which couples hydrodynamical integrations on an icosahedral grid with detailed radiative transfer computations. We added a thermal plume model for Jupiter that emulates the effect of mixing of heat, momentum, and tracers by dry and moist convective plumes that are left unresolved in the GCM mesh spacing with a physics-based approach. Our Jupiter-DYNAMICO global climate simulations show that the large-scale Jovian flow, in particular the jet structure, could be highly sensitive to the water abundance in the troposphere and that an abundance threshold exists at which equatorial super-rotation develops. In contrast to our dry (or weakly moist) simulations, simulations that include the observed amount of tropospheric water exhibit a clear-cut super-rotating eastward jet at the equator and a dozen eastward mid-latitude jets that do not migrate poleward. The magnitudes agree with the observations. The convective activity simulated by our thermal plume model is weaker in the equatorial regions than in mid to high latitudes, as indicated by lightning observations. Regardless of whether they are dry or moist, our simulations exhibit the observed inverse energy cascade from small (eddies) to large scales (jets) in a zonostrophic regime.

Interannual variability of summertime formaldehyde (HCHO) vertical column density and its main drivers at northern high latitudes

Abstract. The northern high latitudes (50–90° N, mostly including boreal-forest and tundra ecosystems) have been undergoing rapid climate and ecological changes over recent decades, leading to significant variations in volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions from biogenic and biomass burning sources. Formaldehyde (HCHO) is an indicator of VOC emissions, but the interannual variability of HCHO and its main drivers over the region remains unclear. In this study, we use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and satellite retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) to examine the interannual variability of HCHO vertical column density (VCD) during the summer seasons spanning from 2005 to 2019. Our results show that, in 2005–2019 summers, wildfires contributed 75 %–90 % of the interannual variability of HCHO VCD over Siberia, Alaska and northern Canada, while biogenic emissions and background methane oxidation account for ∼ 90 % of HCHO interannual variability over eastern Europe. We find that monthly solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), an efficient proxy for plant photosynthesis, shows a good linear relationship (R= 0.6–0.7) with the modeled biogenic HCHO column (dVCDBio,GC) in eastern Europe, Siberia, Alaska and northern Canada, indicating the coupling between SIF and biogenic VOC emissions over the four domains on a monthly scale. In Alaska, Siberia and northern Canada, SIF and dVCDBio,GC both show relatively lower interannual variabilities (SIF: CV = 1 %–9 %, dVCDBio,GC: CV = 1 %–2 %; note that CV stands for coefficient of variation) in comparison to wildfire-induced HCHO (CV = 8 %–13 %), suggesting that the high interannual variabilities of OMI HCHO VCD (CV = 10 %–16 %) in these domains are likely driven by wildfires instead of biogenic emissions.

A tipping point in stable isotope composition of Antarctic meteoric waters during Cenozoic glaciation.

Triple oxygen isotopes of Cenozoic intrusive rocks emplaced along the Ross Sea coastline in Antarctica, reveal that meteoric-hydrothermal waters imprinted their stable isotope composition on mineral phases, leaving a clear record of oxygen and hydrogen isotope variations during the establishment of the polar cap. Calculated O- and H-isotope compositions of meteoric waters vary from -9 ± 2‰ and -92 ± 5‰ at 40 ± 0.6 Ma, to -30 and -234 ± 5‰ at 34 ± 1.9 Ma, and intersect the modern Global Meteoric Water Line. These isotopic variations likely depict the combined variations in temperature, humidity, and moisture source regions, resulting from rearrangement of oceanic currents and atmospheric cooling during the onset of continental ice cap. Here, we report a paleo-climatic proxy based on triple oxygen geochemistry of crystalline rocks that reveals changes in the hydrological cycle. We discuss the magnitude of temperature changes at high latitudes during the Eocene-Oligocene climatic transition.

Soil properties constrain forest understory plant distributions along an elevation gradient.

Projections of spatial biodiversity dynamics under climate warming are often based on models including only climate variables, and when non-climatic factors (e.g. soil) are included, data are often at much coarser spatial resolutions than those experienced by plants. Field studies along elevation gradients permit the gathering of detailed soil data, while still covering a wide climatic gradient. Here, an intensive field survey of four spring forest herbs along an elevation gradient showed that soil properties had substantial impacts on the occurrence/abundance of all species, and that soil effects were more pronounced at higher elevations. For Trillium erectum and Claytonia caroliniana, very infrequent occurrences at high elevation were strongly associated with rare microsites with high pH or nutrients. In a seven-year transplant experiment with T. erectum, we found that individuals grew to much smaller sizes at high than low elevation, suggesting that environmental factors rather than dispersal limitation constrain the species' upper range limit, despite substantial warming in recent decades. Our study demonstrates that soil factors interact strongly with climate to determine plant range limits along climatic gradients. Unsuitable soils for plants at high elevations or latitudes may represent an important constraint on future plant migration and biodiversity change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Use of Short-Term CIDR-Based Protocols for Oestrus Synchronisation in Goats at Tropical and Subtropical Latitudes

This review aims to provide an insight into the application and efficiency of CIDR-based protocols for ES in goats raised under tropical and subtropical environments. In temperate regions, short-term CIDR treatments are replacing long-term treatments and sponges used in earlier decades. In addition, the use of co-treatments for the induction of ovulation is gradually changing from hormonal to non-hormonal methods, given the drive towards clean, green, and ethical techniques for reproductive management. Whereas the subtropical region registers ongoing research in the development of new ES protocols, there are few reports from the tropics, particularly Africa, one of the regions with the highest population of goats. Therefore, this calls for research to develop the most appropriate protocols for these regions, since the protocols currently used are largely hormonal based, as they were developed for goats at higher latitudes. Management and environmental factors determine the breeding pattern of goats at tropical latitudes rather than photoperiods, and they are the main causes of reproductive seasonality. The use of ES methods, particularly short-term CIDR-based protocols, along with artificial insemination, may have a significant impact on the productivity of goats in these regions when these factors are controlled.

''Forbidden" stars in the eROSITA all-sky survey: X-ray emission from very late-type giants

We present the results of the first X-ray all-sky survey (eRASS1) performed by the eROSITA instrument aboard the Spectrum-Roentgen-Gamma (SRG) mission on X-ray emitting red giants and supergiants. Focusing on stars positioned at high galactic latitudes above 20$^ circ $, we constructed a complete sample of such objects using the Gaia DR3 catalog and identified a sample 96 stars that appear as bona fide entries in the eRASS1 source catalog. By again restricting the sample to objects nearer than 1300 pc and eliminating all catalog entries that are due to optical contamination, we ended up with a sample of 16 genuine red giant or supergiant X-ray sources most of which represent new X-ray detections . We present a low signal-to-noise X-ray spectrum of the nearby low-activity giant Arcturus obtained from a pointed observation with the XMM-Newton satellite and give a detailed account of our data analysis. We show that Arcturus-like X-ray emission cannot be the explanation for the X-ray emissions observed by eROSITA and provide a discussion of the possible nature of the detected X-ray sources.

Column‐Compound Extremes in the Global Ocean

AbstractMarine extreme events such as marine heatwaves, ocean acidity extremes and low oxygen extremes can pose a substantial threat to marine organisms and ecosystems. Such extremes might be particularly detrimental (a) when they are compounded in more than one stressor, and (b) when the extremes extend substantially across the water column, restricting the habitable space for marine organisms. Here, we use daily output of a hindcast simulation (1961–2020) from the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model to characterize such column‐compound extreme events (CCX), employing a relative threshold approach to identify extremes and requiring them to extend vertically over at least 50 m. The diagnosed CCX are prevalent, occupying worldwide in the 1960s about 1% of the volume contained within the top 300 m. Over the duration of our simulation, CCX become more intense, last longer, and occupy more volume, driven by the trends in ocean warming and ocean acidification. For example, the triple CCX expanded 39‐fold, now last 3‐times longer, and became 6‐times more intense since the early 1960s. Removing this effect with a moving baseline permits us to better understand the key characteristics of CCX, revealing a typical duration of 10–30 days and a predominant occurrence in the Tropics and high latitudes, regions of high potential biological vulnerability. Overall, the CCX fall into 16 clusters, reflecting different patterns and drivers. Triple CCX are largely confined to the tropics and the North Pacific and tend to be associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation.

Cloud Properties and Boundary Layer Stability Above Southern Ocean Sea Ice and Coastal Antarctica

AbstractSignificant variability in climate predictions originates from the simulated cloud cover over the Southern Ocean. Historically, Southern Ocean cloud and aerosol properties have been less studied than their northern hemisphere counterparts, and cloud‐sea‐ice interactions over the Southern Ocean also remain largely unexamined. We used data from combined radar, lidar, radiometer, radiosonde, and ERA5 reanalysis profiles to investigate cloud property relationships to cloud temperature, sea‐ice concentration, and boundary layer stability. Our findings show correlations between both cloud macrophysical properties and radiative effects and sea‐ice concentration, and that the marine atmospheric boundary layer is more stable over higher sea‐ice concentrations. Mixed‐phase cloud frequency of occurrence was highest over the sea‐ice zone at 15%, three times higher than over cold water south of the Antarctic Polar Front. For temperatures greater than −15°C, low‐level, single‐layer clouds were more likely to precipitate ice if they were coupled to cold‐water or sea‐ice surfaces than if they were decoupled from these surfaces, with the highest percentage of clouds precipitating ice observed over sea ice. These findings suggest a surface source of ice‐nucleating particles at high southern latitudes that increases cloud glaciation probability. We discuss the implications of our results for future studies into the relationship between cloud properties, aerosols, sea ice, and boundary layer stability at high latitudes over the Southern Ocean.

The First Global Insight of Cirrus Clouds Characterized by Hollow Ice Crystals From Space‐Borne Lidar

AbstractCirrus clouds often contain numerous hollow ice crystals, which are distinct in scattering properties from solid ice crystals, and will be challenging to microphysical retrieval and radiative forcing assessment. Currently, hollow ice crystals have not been observed by remote sensing methods, and the estimation of their hollowness is a complex task. To address this issue, the Mixed Modal Hollow Columns (MMHC) model for hollow ice crystals is introduced, and its backscattering properties are computed using the physical optics approximation method. Through comparison with spaceborne lidar observations, we identify a specific type of cirrus associated with the MMHC model for the first time. The visible optical depth of this cirrus is less than or equal to 0.1, and the temperature is between −60 and −40°C. The MMHC characteristic cirrus clouds are prevalent in middle and high latitudes but less comm+on in low latitudes. They exhibit distinct patterns in terms of sea and land distribution as well as seasonal variation.

Systematic Search for and Study of Short-timescale Flare Structures in BL Lac Object Gamma-Ray Emission

We present here the first systematic search of short-timescale γ-ray flares from 29 high Galactic latitude BL Lac objects over 14 yr of Fermi Large Area Telescope data. Using a combined Bayesian Blocks and HOP algorithm, we identified seven high-quality orbital timescale flare segments from three sources and quantified 24 short-timescale flare structures. We then performed a comprehensive analysis of flare symmetry, power spectral density (PSD) of variability, and flux–photon index relation. The main results are as follows. (1) The flare symmetry parameter A shows a “U-shaped” distribution. Short-timescale flares are symmetric while long-timescale flares are asymmetric. The number of fast-rise, slow-decay and slow-rise, fast-decay type flares are equal. No correlation is found between A and peak/integral flux. No parameter evolution is seen between consecutive flares, either. The observations support a scenario where longer-timescale flares originate from the superposition of short, symmetric subhour flares. (2) PSD from yearly to hourly timescales is modeled using the CARMA process. At lower frequencies, the PSD follows the typical broken power-law form. The high-frequency region of the PSD exhibits a continuous power-law shape, indicating that γ-ray variability originates from a single physical process across all probed timescales. (3) The flux–photon index distribution shows a pattern of “harder-when-brighter” or “softer-when-brighter,” but becomes flat above a certain critical flux, with Γ ≈ 2. This behavior cannot be simply explained by a two-component or blazar sequence model, and we speculate it may be related to complex interplay between electron acceleration and cooling.

The palaeomagnetic field recorded in Eyjafjarðardalur basalts (2.6-8.0 Ma), Iceland: Are inclination-shallowing corrections necessary in Time-Average Field analysis?

Summary The Geocentric Axial Dipole (GAD) hypothesis is key to many palaeomagnetic applications, e.g., plate-tectonic reconstructions; however, the validity of this hypothesis at high latitudes is not fully resolved. To address this, in this paper we conducted a determine the palaeomagnetic directional data of 156 lava units in Eyjafjarðardalur, Iceland, with the aim of determining the validity of the GAD hypothesis at high-latitudes using time-averaged field (TAF) analysis. In addition to the palaeomagnetic directional data, we constructed an age model for the sequences using new 40Ar/39Ar dates, magnetostratigraphy and field data. The sequence age range is 2.6 to 8.0 Ma. We show that the mean virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) for our data, does not agree with GAD theory at 95% confidence, when only the standard tilt and tectonic corrections are made, however, when inclination-shallowing processes are accounted for, e.g., TRM anisotropy and refraction effects, the mean VGP can align with GAD at 95% confidence. These inclination-shallowing processes are shown to reduce the inclination by up to 14° for some of the basaltic units. Applying the inclination shallowing correction also reduces VGP dispersion to levels which agree with global model predictions. We propose that much of the scatter within the palaeomagnetic directional databases are due to inclination-shallowing processes effects, which become more important as the natural remanent magnetisation (NRM) intensity is high, e.g., > 2 A/m. We propose that inclination-shallowing processes can be identified and corrected for by examining the NRM intensity and dispersion.

Energetic particle precipitation influences global secondary ozone distribution

The secondary ozone layer is a global peak in ozone abundance in the upper mesosphere-lower thermosphere (UMLT) around 90-95 km. The effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) from geomagnetic processes on this UMLT ozone remains largely unexplored. In this research we investigated how the secondary ozone responds to EPP using satellite observations. In addition, the residual Mean Meridional Circulation (MMC) derived from model simulations and the atomic oxygen [O], atomic hydrogen [H], temperature measurements from satellite observations were used to characterise the residual circulation changes during EPP events. We report regions of secondary ozone enhancement or deficit across low, mid and high latitudes as a result of global circulation and transport changes induced by EPP. The results are supported by a sensitivity test using an empirical model.

Interdecadal variations in the interannual relationship between winter tropical Pacific SST and subsequent summer Arctic sea ice in early 2000s

AbstractThe present study investigates the interdecadal change in the interannual relationship between winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical central‐eastern Pacific and the subsequent summer Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and its possible mechanism using 1979–2023 monthly SST and SIC data from Hadley Center and atmospheric reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR. It is found that the relationship between the winter tropical Pacific SST and the subsequent summer SIC of Beaufort Sea experienced an obvious interdecadal change from a significant negative correlation to a weak and insignificant correlation before and after the early 2000s, respectively. Before the early 2000s, when winter SST warming (cooling) anomalies occurred in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, it could sustain into summer and enhance a Rossby wave propagating from Tropic to high latitude, forming negative (positive) pressure anomalies in the North Pacific. Influenced by such anomalies, it is conducive to maintaining negative (positive) SST anomalies in the North Pacific from winter to subsequent summer. The summer SST cooling (warming) in the North Pacific could form a favourable atmospheric circulation anomaly for less (more) SIC. In contrast, after the early 21st century, the strong SST anomalies in winter over the eastern tropical Pacific would weaken with time and subsequently diminish in spring, leading to the SST anomalies in the North Pacific persist to spring, which can hardly affect summer SIC anomaly in the Beaufort Sea. Therefore, the relationship collapses after the the early 2000s due to the weakened persistence of the eastern tropical Pacific SST anomaly.

From threat to opportunity: Hydrologic uncertainty regionalization across large domains

Study regionThe study was carried out in Northern Canada (90,000 km2) and Southern Canada (18,000 km2). These basins represent case studies with a larger application target of high latitude regions. Study focusAs model domains become large, ungauged basins are inevitably encountered, and basin heterogeneity increases. This study aims to develop the computationally frugal Model Agnostic Uncertainty Transfer (MAUT) method to regionalize an uncertainty analysis from a set of donor basins to a receiver. The goal is an evaluation of the MAUT method for regionalizing over sufficiently heterogeneous domains to be applicable to high latitude data sparse regions. New hydrological insights for the regionWe propose the Model Agnostic Uncertainty Transfer (MAUT) method, a surrogate method to perform uncertainty analysis in large-domain modelling with a focus on high-latitude regions where data scarcity is especially severe. With the MAUT method, antecedent precipitation and simulated flow are related. Deviation from this relationship is assumed to represent modelling uncertainty and is quantified by quantile regression lines. These lines act as transfer functions requiring only antecedent precipitation to generate uncertainty bounds. The MAUT method requires uncertainty donors and a target receiver model. Key results suggest the method is relatively insensitive to precipitation dataset differences. Simulation length was the most sensitive input, with 15–20 years being ideal for reasonable results. Overall, the MAUT method is viable for high latitude domains.