High 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Research Articles

Thoracic versus coronary calcification for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events prediction

This study compared the prognostic value of quantified thoracic artery calcium (TAC) including aortic arch on chest CT and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score on ECG-gated cardiac CT.MethodsA total of...

Abstract 16491: The Relationship Between Cardiovascular Health and 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk in American Adults

Introduction: Life’s Essential 8 (LE8) is a metric of overall cardiovascular health (CVH) while 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is routinely used to guide primary prevention. Yet, the relationship between LE8 and 10-year ASCVD risk is unclear. Hypothesis: CVH has an inverse relationship with 10-year ASCVD risk in adults aged 40–75 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020 cycle. Methods: Adults with ASCVD and data missing to calculate 10-year ASCVD risk and LE8 scores were excluded. LE8 score was estimated from the mean of LE8 components (scored 0 to 100), with scores ≥80, 79–50, and <49 grouped into ideal, intermediate, and poor CVH, respectively. 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated using pooled cohort equation, with scores <5%, 5–19.9%, and ≥20% grouped as low, borderline/intermediate, and high risk, respectively. The survey weighted chi-square and ANOVA analysis was performed. Results: We included 1,550 adults representing nearly 45 million US adults with a mean age of 57.8 years, 35.3% women. Overall, 35.4%, 42.3%, and 22.3% had low, borderline/intermediate, and high 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. Low, borderline/intermediate, and high-risk individuals had a mean LE8 score of 68.2, 61.8, and 62.6 (p-value: <0.001) while 18.1%, 7.4%, and 5.6% (p-value: 0.002) had ideal CVH, respectively. Diet, nicotine exposure, body mass index (BMI), and blood lipids metrics were very low across the risk groups (figure). Additionally, the mean blood pressure metric was 41.3 among high-risk and 61.1 among intermediate/borderline-risk individuals. Conclusions: The prevalence of ideal CVH is very low across all 10-year ASCVD risk groups primarily due to poor diet, nicotine exposure, high BMI, and high blood lipids. Since ASCVD risk is predominantly age-dependent and given comparable LE8 scores among borderline/intermediate and high-risk individuals, LE8 may denote an age-independent long-term/lifetime risk.

Abstract 15944: Aspirin Use for Primary Prevention in High-Risk Patients: Insights From a Large Healthcare Network

Background: Recently, the value of routine use of aspirin in primary prevention for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) has come into question. We investigated patients with a high 10-year ASCVD risk profile to evaluate the magnitude of protection afforded by aspirin with and without statin in prevention of ASCVD events. Methods: Primary prevention patients were stratified based on 10-year ASCVD risk (High [20%]). Aspirin use was categorized over the 6-year follow-up period as “None”, “seldom” (<30% of follow up time), “sometimes” (>30 to =<70%), and often used (≥70% of the time). Cox regression models were used to assess HRs of MI, ischemic stroke and mortality with aspirin or statin use alone compared to a combination of aspirin and statin. Results: 69,955 patients qualified as “high” 10-year ASCVD risk. In fully adjusted models, aspirin use ≥ 30% was associated with significantly lower risk of MI [HR ASA use ≥ 70% 0.76 (0.72-0.80), p <0.001], ischemic stroke [HR ASA use ≥ 70% 0.83 (0.77-0.90), p <0.007], and mortality [HR ASA use ≥ 70% 0.78 (0.74-0.82), p <0.001] in high-risk patients compared to no aspirin use ( Table ). Compared to patients on both a statin and aspirin, patients on statin alone had increased risk of MI [HR 1.30 (1.06-1.60), p = 0.013]. Patients on aspirin alone had increased risk of MI [HR 1.74 (1.34-2.26), p <0.001] and mortality [HR 1.70 (1.27-2.28), p < 0.0004] versus those on aspirin and statin. Patients not on any aspirin or statin were at significantly increased risk for MI [HR 2.28 (2.08-2.49), p<0.001], ischemic stroke [HR 1.77 (1.56-2.00), p<0.001), and mortality [HR 2.16 (1.60-2.90), p<0.001] compared to those taking both aspirin and statin. Conclusions: Low dose aspirin may still have a role in primary prevention of ASCVD events amongst high-risk patients when added to statin therapy. Risk-benefit profile of each high-risk primary prevention patient should be assessed for initiating or discontinuing low dose aspirin therapy

Association of Fine Particulate Matter Constituents with the Predicted 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Evidence from a Large-Scale Cross-Sectional Study.

Little is known concerning the associations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and its constituents with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). A total of 31,162 participants enrolled from the Henan Rural Cohort were used to specify associations of PM2.5 and its constituents with ASCVD. Hybrid machine learning was utilized to estimate the 3-year average concentration of PM2.5 and its constituents (black carbon [BC], nitrate [NO3-], ammonium [NH4+], inorganic sulfate [SO42-], organic matter [OM], and soil particles [SOIL]). Constituent concentration, proportion, and residual models were utilized to examine the associations of PM2.5 constituents with 10-year ASCVD risk and to identify the most hazardous constituent. The isochronous substitution model (ISM) was employed to analyze the substitution effect between PM2.5 constituents. We found that each 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, BC, NH4+, NO3-, OM, SO42-, and SOIL was associated with a 3.5%, 49.3%, 19.4%, 10.5%, 21.4%, 14%, and 28.5% higher 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively (all p < 0.05). Comparable results were observed in proportion and residual models. The ISM found that replacing BC with other constituents will generate the greatest health benefits. The results indicated that long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its constituents were associated with increased risks of ASCVD, with BC being the most attributable constituent.

Ambient PM2.5 and its components associated with 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in Chinese adults

BackgroundExposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) may increase the risk of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. While PM2.5 is comprised of various components, the evidence on the correlation of its components with 10-year ASCVD risk and which component contributes most remains limited. MethodsData were derived from the baseline assessments of China Multi-Ethnic Cohort (CMEC). In total, 69,722 individuals aged 35–74 years were included into this study. The annual average concentration of PM2.5 and its components (black carbon, ammonium, nitrate, sulfate, organic matter, soil particles, and sea salt) were estimated by satellite remote sensing and chemical transport models. The ASCVD risk of individuals was calculated by the equations from the China-PAR Project (prediction for ASCVD risk in China). The relationship between single exposure to PM2.5 and its components and predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was assessed using the logistic regression model. The effect of joint exposure was estimated, and the most significant contributor was identified using the weighted quantile sum approach. ResultsTotally 69,722 participants were included, of which 95.8 % and 4.2 % had low and high 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. Per standard deviation increases in the 3-year average concentration of PM2.5 mass (odds ratio [OR] 1.23, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.12–1.35), black carbon (1.21, 1.11–1.33), ammonium (1.21, 1.10–1.32), nitrate (1.25, 1.14–1.38), organic matter (1.29, 1.18–1.42), sulfate (1.17, 1.07–1.28), and soil particles (1.15, 1.04–1.26) were related to high 10-year ASCVD risk. The overall effect (1.19, 1.11–1.28) of the PM2.5 components was positively associated with 10-year ASCVD risk, and organic matter had the most contribution to this relationship. Female participants were more significantly impacted by PM2.5, black carbon, ammonium, nitrate, organic matter, sulfate, and soil particles compared to others. ConclusionLong-term exposure to PM2.5 mass, black carbon, ammonium, nitrate, organic matter, sulfate, and soil particles were positively associated with high 10-year ASCVD risk, while sea salt exhibited a protective effect. Moreover, the organic matter might take primary responsibility for the relationship between PM2.5 and 10-year ASCVD risk. Females were more susceptible to the adverse effect.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factor control of high atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in Guangzhou, China.

Identifying individuals at high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and implementing targeted prevention strategies might be the key to reducing the heavy disease burden in China. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factor control among individuals with high 10-year ASCVD risk in Guangzhou, China. This study included 15,165 adults (aged 18 years and older) from 138 urban and rural communities in the 2018 survey of China Chronic Disease and Risk Factors Surveillance in Guangzhou. 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated using the risk assessment models recommended in the Chinese Guideline for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease 2017. The prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factor control of high ASCVD risk (defined as 10-year risk ≥10%) were examined. Among the study population, the weighted proportion of men was 51.9%, and the mean age was 41.27 ± 0.52 years. The overall standardized prevalence of high 10-year ASCVD risk was 13.8% (95% CI, 12.4%-15.3%). The awareness rates for hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia were 48.0% (95% CI, 42.8%-53.4%), 48.3% (95% CI, 43.0%-53.7%), and 17.9% (95% CI, 14.4%-22.1%) among those with corresponding risk factors. The proportions of drug use in prevention were relatively low in primary prevention, with the rates of using BP-lowering, glucose-lowering, lipid-lowering, and aspirin being 37.7% (95% CI, 32.8%-42.8%), 41.4% (95% CI, 35.8%-47.3%), 6.7% (95% CI, 4.5%-10.0%), and 1.0% (95% CI, 0.6%-1.8%), respectively. As for risk factor control, only 29.3% (95% CI, 25.7%-33.2%), 16.8% (95% CI, 15.0%-18.6%), and 36.0% (95% CI, 31.1%-41.2%) of individuals with high ASCVD risk had ideal levels of blood pressure, LDL-C, and body weight. The estimated prevalence of 10-year high ASCVD risk was high in Guangzhou, while the rates of treatment and risk factor control in primary prevention were still far from optimal, especially for lipid management. These findings suggested that substantial improvement in ASCVD prevention is needed in this population.

Normal-weight visceral obesity promotes a higher 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus–a multicenter study in China

BackgroundVisceral obesity is associated with high cardiovascular events risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Whether normal-weight visceral obesity will pose a higher atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk than body mass index (BMI)-defined overweight or obese counterparts with or without visceral obesity remains unclear. We aimed to explore the relationship between general obesity and visceral obesity and 10-year ASCVD risk in patients with T2DM.MethodsPatients with T2DM (6997) who satisfied the requirements for inclusion were enrolled. Patients were considered to have normal weight when 18.5 kg/m2 ≤ BMI < 24 kg/m2; overweight when 24 kg/m2 ≤ BMI < 28 kg/m2; and obesity when BMI ≥ 28 kg/m2. Visceral obesity was defined as a visceral fat area (VFA) ≥ 100 cm2. Patients were separated into six groups based on BMI and VFA. The odd ratios (OR) for a high 10-year ASCVD risk for different combinations of BMI and VFA were analysed using stepwise logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for diagnosing the high 10-year ASCVD risk were constructed, and areas under the ROC curves were estimated. Potential non-linear relationships between VFA levels and high 10-year ASCVD risk were examined using restricted cubic splines (knot = 4). Multilinear regression was used to identify factors affecting VFA in patients with T2DM.ResultsIn patients with T2DM, subjects with normal-weight visceral obesity had the highest 10-year ASCVD risk among the six groups, which had more than a 2-fold or 3-fold higher OR than those who were overweight or obese according to BMI but did not have visceral obesity (all P < 0.05). The VFA threshold for high 10-year ASCVD risk was 90 cm2. Multilinear regression showed significant differences in the effect of age, hypertension, drinking, fasting serum insulin, fasting plasma glucose, 2 h postprandial C-peptide, triglyceride, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol on VFA in patients with T2DM (all P < 0.05).ConclusionsT2DM patients with normal-weight visceral obesity had a higher 10-year ASCVD risk than BMI-defined overweight or obese counterparts with or without visceral obesity, which should initiate standardised management for ASCVD primary prevention.

Endothelial function predicts 5-year adverse outcome in patients hospitalized in an emergency department chest pain unit.

Although endothelial function is a marker for cardiovascular risk, endothelial dysfunction assessment is not routinely used in daily clinical practice. A growing challenge has emerged in identifying patients prone to cardiovascular events. We aim to investigate whether abnormal endothelial function may be associated with adverse 5-year outcomes in patients presenting to a chest pain unit (CPU). Following endothelial function testing using EndoPAT 2000 in 300 consecutive patients without a history of coronary artery disease, patients underwent coronary computerized tomographic angiography (CCTA) or single-photon emission computed tomography according to availability. Mean 10-year Framingham risk score (FRS) was 6.6 ± 5.9%; mean 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk was 7.1 ± 7.2%; median reactive hyperemia index (RHI) as a measure of an endothelial function 2.0 and mean was 2.0 ± 0.4. During a 5-year follow-up, the 30 patients who developed major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including all-cause mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction, hospitalization for heart failure or angina pectoris, stroke, coronary artery bypass grafting, and percutaneous coronary interventions, had higher 10-year FRS (9.6 ± 7.8 vs. 6.3 ± 5.6%; P = 0.032), higher 10-year ASCVD risk (10.4 ± 9.2 vs. 6.7 ± 6.9%; P = 0.042), lower baseline RHI (1.6 ± 0.5 vs. 2.1 ± 0.4; P < 0.001) and a greater degree of coronary atherosclerotic lesions (53 vs. 3%, P < 0.001) on CCTA compared with patients without MACE. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that RHI below the median was an independent predictor of 5-year MACE (odds ratio 5.567, 95% confidence interval 1.955-15.853; P = 0.001). Our findings suggest that noninvasive endothelial function testing may contribute to clinical efficacy in triaging patients in the CPU and in predicting 5-year MACE. NCT01618123.

Magnitude, Distribution and Contextual Risk Enhancing Predictors of High 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Among Diabetic Patients in Tanzania.

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. In Diabetics, ASCVD is associated with poor prognosis and a higher case fatality rate compared with the general population. Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an epidemiological transition with ASCVD being prevalent among young adults. To date, over 20 million people have been living with DM in Africa, Tanzania being one of the five countries in the continent reported to have a higher prevalence. This study aimed to identify an individual's 10-year ASCVD absolute risk among a diabetic cohort in Tanzania and define contextual risk enhancing factors. A prospective observational study was conducted at the Aga Khan hospital, Mwanza, for a period of 8 months. The hospital is a 42-bed district-level hospital in Tanzania. Individuals 10-year risk was calculated based on the ASCVD 2013 risk calculator by ACC/AHA. Pearson's chi-square or Fischer's exact test was used to compare categorical and continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was applied to determine contextual factors for those who had a high 10-year risk of developing ASCVD. The overall cohort included 573 patients. Majority of the individuals were found to be hypertensive (n = 371, 64.7%) and obese (n = 331, 58%) having a high 10-year absolute risk (n = 343, 60%) of suffering ASCVD. The study identified duration of Diabetes Mellitus (>10 years) (OR 8.15, 95% CI 5.25-14.42), concomitant hypertension (OR 1.82 95% CI 1.06-3.06), Diabetic Dyslipidemia (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.08-1.92) and deranged serum creatinine (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.03) to be the risk enhancing factors amongst our population. The study confirms the majority of diabetic individuals in the lake region of Tanzania to have a high 10-year ASCVD risk. The high prevalence of obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia augments ASCVD risk but provides interventional targets for health-care workers to decrease these alarming projections.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Statin Use Among Adults with Metabolic Dysfunction Associated Fatty Liver Disease

BackgroundA leading cause of mortality in fatty liver disease is cardiovascular disease. Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is new terminology that classifies fatty liver due to metabolic dysfunction attributable to obesity and associated complications. We evaluated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and statin use in adults with MAFLD. MethodsThis was a retrospective study of the 2011-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Adults with MAFLD were identified using established criteria: presence of hepatic steatosis (US Fatty Liver Index>30) plus ≥1 of the following: 1) body mass index >25 kg/m2 in non-Asians or >23 kg/m2 in Asians, 2) diabetes mellitus, and 3) ≥2 metabolic risk factors. Cardiovascular disease risk was estimated using the validated 10-year ASCVD risk score. Statin use was assessed in intermediate and high 10-year ASCVD risk groups. ResultsPrevalence of MAFLD was 34.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.9%-35.8%), comprising 54.4% males, 27.9% aged 65 years and older, and 38.2% non-Hispanic white. Among adults with MAFLD, 23.3% and 23.0% had intermediate and high 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. Compared with females, males were more likely to have high 10-year ASCVD risk (28.7% vs 16.1%, adjusted odds ratio 5.24, 95% CI, 3.87-7.10, P < .01). In intermediate and high ASCVD risk groups, overall statin use was 48.3% (95% CI, 46.1-51.3). ConclusionsOver 46% of adults with MAFLD had intermediate or high 10-year ASCVD risk. Statin use was underutilized at 48.3% in those meeting statin criteria. These findings are alarming given the high cardiovascular disease risk and low statin use in this cohort.

Associationbetweenpulse wave velocityand the10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Chinese population: Acommunity-based study.

Accumulated evidence has shown that carotid-femoral and brachial-ankle PWV well predict cardiovascular events but it is still unclear if the predictability is same or not. In this cross-sectional study based on a community atherosclerosis cohort in Beijing, China, a total of 5282 participants without previous coronary heart disease and stroke were enrolled from a community atherosclerosis cohort in Beijing, China. The 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk were calculated by the China-PAR model, and<5%, 5%-10% and>10% were defined as low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. The average baPWV and cfPWV values were 16.63±3.35m/s and 8.45±1.78m/s, respectively. The mean 10-year ASCVD risk was 6.98% (interquartile range: 3.90%-12.01%). The patients with low, intermediate, and high 10-year ASCVD risk accounted for 34.84% (1840), 31.94% (1687),, and 33.23% (1755) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that for every 1m/s increase in baPWV and cfPWV, the 10-year ASCVD risk increased by 0.60% (95% confidence interval: 0.56%-0.65%, p<.001) and 1.17% (95% confidence interval: 1.09%-1.25%, p<.001), respectively. The diagnostic ability of the baPWV was comparable to the cfPWV (area under the curve: 0.870 [0.860-0.879] vs. 0.871 [0.861-0.881], p=.497). In conclusion, baPWV and cfPWV are positively associated with the 10-year risk of ASCVD in the Chinese community-based population, with a nearly identical association with a high 10-year risk of ASCVD.

Association between baseline cardiovascular risk and incidence rates of major adverse cardiovascular events and malignancies in patients with psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis receiving tofacitinib.

Tofacitinib is a Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and has been investigated for psoriasis (PsO). This post hoc analysis examined baseline cardiovascular (CV) disease risk and its association with the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and malignancies in tofacitinib-treated patients with PsA and PsO. Included three phase III/long-term extension (LTE) PsA trials and seven phase II/phase III/LTE PsO trials of patients receiving ⩾ 1 dose of tofacitinib. Incidence rates (IRs: patients with events/100 patient-years) for MACE and malignancies (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) were determined in subgroups according to history of atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD), baseline 10-year risk of ASCVD (in patients without history of ASCVD), and baseline metabolic syndrome (MetS). For patients with PsA (N = 783) and PsO (N = 3663), respectively, tofacitinib exposure was 2038 and 8950 patient-years (median duration: 3.0 and 2.4 years), and 40.9% and 32.7% had MetS. Excluding missing CV risk profile data, 51/773 (6.6%) and 144/3629 (4.0%) patients had history of ASCVD, and in patients without history of ASCVD, around 20.0% had intermediate/high baseline 10-year ASCVD risk. For PsA and PsO, IRs of MACE were greatest in those with history of ASCVD or high baseline 10-year ASCVD risk. For PsA, five of six patients with MACE had baseline MetS. Malignancy IRs in patients with PsA were greatest in those with intermediate/high baseline 10-year ASCVD risk. Of these, eight of nine patients with malignancies had baseline MetS. In the PsO cohort, IR of malignancies was notably greater with high versus low/borderline/intermediate baseline 10-year ASCVD risk. In tofacitinib-treated patients with PsA/PsO, increased ASCVD risk and baseline MetS were associated with higher IRs for MACE and malignancies. Our results support assessing CV risk in patients with PsA/PsO and suggest enhanced cancer monitoring in those with increased ASCVD risk. NCT01877668/NCT01882439/NCT01976364/NCT00678210/NCT01710046/NCT01241591/NCT01186744/NCT01276639/NCT01309737/NCT01163253. People who have psoriatic arthritis or psoriasis may have more heart-related problems and cancer if they have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease: A study in people with psoriatic arthritis or psoriasis receiving tofacitinib Why was this study done? • People with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and psoriasis (PsO) are more likely than the general population to have a disease affecting the heart and blood vessels [cardiovascular (CV) disease].• People who are more likely to have CV disease may also be more likely to have certain types of cancer.• Tofacitinib is a medicine to treat people with PsA and has been tested in people with PsO.• We wanted to know if the risk of CV disease affects the number of heart-related problems (including heart attack, stroke, or death) and cancer in people with PsA and PsO. What did the researchers do? • We used results from 10 clinical trials.• In these trials, people with PsA and PsO were taking tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice a day.• After the trials had ended, we measured people's risk of CV disease using a risk calculator. This risk calculator showed if they had a low, borderline, intermediate, or high risk of CV disease over the next 10 years. We also checked if they had had CV disease before treatment.• We checked if people had a group of conditions linked to CV disease: diabetes, high blood pressure, and obesity.• We counted the cases of heart-related problems and cancer in people once they started taking tofacitinib. What did the researchers find? In people with PsA and PsO taking tofacitinib:• There were more cases of heart-related problems and cancer in people who had intermediate or high risk of CV disease.• There were more cases of heart-related problems in people who had had CV disease before.• More people with diabetes, high blood pressure, and obesity had heart-related problems and cancer than people without those conditions. What do the findings mean? • It is important to measure risk and assess history of CV disease in people with PsA and PsO, including those taking tofacitinib.• We should test for cancer in people with high risk of CV disease.

Abstract 10410: Association Between Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring With Statin Initiation, Cholesterol Reduction and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Black Patients

Introduction: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is a cost-effective and reproducible method to assess risk for cardiovascular (CV) outcomes and is particularly important for guiding prevention in asymptomatic patients. Black patients are at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that is not fully explained by traditional risk factors. In this study, we investigated the prevalence of CAC and its association with CV events in Black and white individuals. Methods: We investigated the baseline characteristics, rates of statin initiation, changes in cholesterol, and major adverse CV events (myocardial infarction, stroke, death) in 49,799 patients with self-reported race (Black or white) who underwent CAC scoring in the CLARIFY study between 2014 and 2020 (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04075162). Results: In total, there were 4,292 Black patients and 45,507 white patients. Compared with white patients, Black patients had similar age (P=0.17), were more likely to be female (60.5% vs 50%, P&lt;0.001), had higher 10-year ASCVD risk by pooled cohort equation (16.18% vs. 11.06%, P&lt;0.001), lower LDL cholesterol (115 vs 123 mg/dL, P&lt;0.001), and were more likely to have CAC of 0 (49.2% vs 39.9%, P&lt;0.001). At every 10-year ASCVD risk category by pooled cohort equation, CAC was more prevalent in white patients than Black patients (p&lt;0.001). Despite similar statin initiation post CAC score in patients not on statins at baseline, Black patients had less relative reduction in LDL cholesterol over 1 year compared with white patients (figure). Within each CAC category, Black patients had higher rates of CV events (P&lt;0.003) over 1 year. Conclusions: In this large cohort of patients undergoing CAC scoring, Black individuals had lower CAC scores despite having higher predicted ASCVD risk and worse outcomes. Black individuals had less relative reduction in cholesterol over 1 year compared with white individuals, despite having similar statin initiation rates.

Heterogeneity in the Association Between the Presence of Coronary Artery Calcium and Cardiovascular Events: A Machine-Learning Approach in the MESA Study.

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been widely recognized as an important predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Given the finite resources, it is important to identify individuals who would receive the most benefit from detecting positive CAC by screening. However, the evidence is limited as to whether the burden of positive CAC on CVD differs by multidimensional individual characteristics. We sought to investigate the heterogeneity in the association between positive CAC and incident CVD. This cohort study included adults from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) ages ≥45 years and free of cardiovascular disease. After propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio, we applied a machine learning causal forest model to (1) evaluate the heterogeneity in the association between positive CAC and incident CVD, and (2) predict the increase in CVD risk at 10-years when CAC>0 (versus CAC=0) at the individual level. We then compared the estimated increase in CVD risk when CAC>0 to the absolute 10-year atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk calculated by the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations. Across 3328 adults in our propensity score-matched analysis, our causal forest model showed the heterogeneity in the association between CAC>0 and incident CVD. We found a dose-response relationship of the estimated increase in CVD risk when CAC>0 with higher 10-year ASCVD risk. Almost all individuals (2293 of 2428 [94.4%]) with borderline risk of ASCVD or higher showed ≥2.5% increase in CVD risk when CAC>0. Even among 900 adults with low ASCVD risk, 689 (69.2%) showed ≥2.5% increase in CVD risk when CAC>0; these individuals were more likely to be male, Hispanic, and have unfavorable CVD risk factors than others. The expected increases in CVD risk when CAC>0 were heterogeneous across individuals. Moreover, nearly 70% of people with low ASCVD risk showed a large increase in CVD risk when CAC>0, highlighting the need for CAC screening among such low-risk individuals. Future studies are needed to assess whether targeting individuals for CAC measurements based on not only the absolute ASCVD risk but also the expected increase in CVD risk when CAC>0 improves cardiovascular outcomes.

Ten-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk prediction for postmenopausal women: Impacts of isolated postchallenge hyperglycemia.

Isolated postchallenge hyperglycemia (IPH) is a type of diabetes mellitus defined as 2-h glucose ≥200 mg/dL but fasting glucose <126 mg/dL. The purpose of the study was to assess impacts of IPH on 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores in postmenopausal women. This study analyzed data from 428 postmenopausal women who underwent oral glucose tolerance test at a medical center. Ten-year ASCVD risk was evaluated by using Pooled Cohort Equations. Logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate odds ratios for having high 10-year ASCVD risk scores (≥5%) among these women. The subjects with IPH had higher systolic blood pressure and worse lipid profile than those without IPH. Ten-year ASCVD risk scores for postmenopausal women with IPH were calculated under 2 scenarios: the IPH women were considered non-diabetic, they were designated as patients with DM. The median ASCVD risk score of the participants with IPH increased significantly from 3.7% under scenario 1 to 7.1% under scenario 2. Approximately 20% women with IPH were re-categorized from risk category of <5% to ≥7.5% once they were identified as patients with DM (scenario 2). The results of logistic regression analyses showed that IPH was independently positively associated with 10-year ASCVD risk scores ≥5% under both scenarios. Postmenopausal women with IPH were characterized by unfavorable cardiovascular risk profile and high predicted 10-year ASCVD risk. Knowing the women's hidden DM status would significantly alter their risk categorization.

Association Between Serum Uric Acid Levels and Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Xiamen Residents of China: A Real-World Study.

BackgroundSerum uric acid (SUA) levels was associated with cardiovascular diseases and cardiovascular events. However, the relationship between SUA levels and traditional cardiovascular risk factors has not been well-established among Xiamen residents. Our study aimed to estimate the relationship between SUA levels and cardiovascular risk factors among Xiamen residents using real-world data.MethodsParticipants were enrolled from eight community health service centers in Xiamen, China. Participants were divided into four groups according to quartiles of the SUA levels. The history of diseases, the use of medications and the levels of laboratory parameters were collected. The China-PAR equation was used to evaluate the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk.ResultsA total of 1,322 participants were enrolled. About 568 (43.0%) were men and 754 (57.0%) were women. The prevalences of hypertension, elderly, current smokers, and obesity were higher in the quartile 4 (Q4) group than the quartile 1 (Q1) group (all p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed the OR for hypertension was 2.671 (95% CI 1.777–4.015, p < 0.001) in the Q4 group compared with that in the Q1 group. Further logistic regression showed the OR for hypertension was 3.254 (95% CI 1.756–6.031, p < 0.001) in men and 2.314 (95% CI 1.354–3.955, p = 0.002) in women in the Q4 group compared with that in the Q1 group, respectively. In addition, the percentage of participants with low 10-year ASCVD risk calculated by China-PAR was higher in the Q1 group than that in the Q4 group (55.86 vs. 31.82%, p < 0.001). The percentage of participants with high 10-year ASCVD risk was lower in the Q1 group compared with the Q4 group (15.32 vs. 25.45%, p < 0.001). Multiple linear logistic regression showed the 10-year China-PAR ASCVD risk scores was positively correlated with SUA after adjusting for various factors (β = 0.135, p = 0.001).ConclusionSerum uric acid was associated with several cardiovascular risk factors in Xiamen residents. The percentage of high 10-year ASDVD risk was higher in participants with hyperuricemia. Participants with hyperuricemia may experience cardiovascular benefit from uric acid-lowering therapy.

MAFLD Predicts the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Better than NAFLD in Asymptomatic Subjects with Health Check-Ups.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was proposed to compensate for the conventional concept of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We investigated the superiority of MAFLD versus NAFLD in predicting the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). A total of 2,144 subjects without a history of ASCVD, who underwent a comprehensive medical health check-up, were selected for the study. The associations between fatty liver status and coronary risk surrogates, such as coronary artery calcium score (CACS), coronary artery disease, quantitative stenosis grade, and 10-year ASCVD risk, were analyzed. MAFLD and NAFLD were identified in 995 (46.4%) and 891 (41.6%) subjects, respectively. Subjects with MAFLD or NAFLD were more likely to be male and had a significantly higher prevalence of central obesity, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia (all, p < 0.05) than their counterparts. In terms of coronary risk surrogates, the MAFLD or NAFLD population had a significantly higher proportion of subjects with CACS > 100, coronary artery disease, higher grade of coronary artery stenosis, and higher 10-year ASCVD risk (all, p < 0.05) than their counterparts. Multivariable logistic regression models showed an independent association between MAFLD/NAFLD and coronary risk surrogates (all, p < 0.05). However, NAFLD only, defined as 'NAFLD, but not MAFLD,' was not associated with an increased coronary risk, compared to MAFLD. Although both MAFLD and NAFLD discriminated different ASCVD risks, MAFLD predicted the risk of ASCVD better than NAFLD in asymptomatic subjects who underwent medical health check-ups.

Carotid Atherosclerosis, Microalbuminuria, and Estimated 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa

Carotid atherosclerosis and microalbuminuria are associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) but are understudied in sub-Saharan Africa. To evaluate the association of carotid atherosclerosis and microalbuminuria with 10-year ASCVD risk in middle-aged sub-Saharan African individuals. This cross-sectional study conducted analyses of baseline data from the African-Wits-INDEPTH (International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health in Low- and Middle-Income Countries) genomic study (AWI-Gen). Women and men aged 40 to 60 years without baseline CVD and drawn from Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa were included. Hypotheses for the analyses were formulated after data collection. The main exposures were carotid atherosclerosis, assessed using carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) using B-mode ultrasonography, and microalbuminuria, measured using spot urine albumin (SUA) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (uACR). The main outcome was high ASCVD risk, defined as a 2018 Pooled Cohort Equations score of 7.5% or greater. Associations were estimated using adjusted multivariable logistic regression analyses. A total of 9010 participants with a mean (SD) age of 50 (6) years and 4533 (50.3%) women were included. High CIMT, SUA, and uACR were each associated with older age (eg, mean [SD] age of participants with high vs reference range CIMT: 55 [5] years vs 50 [6] years; P < .001) and high prevalence of both diabetes and hypertension (eg, hypertension among those with high vs reference range SUA: 213 of 1117 [19.1%] vs 356 of 2549 [14.0%]; P < .001). Smokers were likely to have higher vs reference range SUA (210 [18.8%] vs 407 [16.0%]) and uACR (138 of 707 [19.5%] vs 456 of 2797 [16.3%]). Carotid atherosclerosis was common in Burkina Faso (82 of 262 [31.3%]) and Ghana (91 [34.7%]), while microalbuminuria, measured by SUA, was common in Kenya (272 [24.4%]) and South Africa (519 [46.5%]). SUA was associated with higher odds of carotid atherosclerosis (odds ratio [OR], 1.77; 95% CI, 1.04-3.01) compared with uACR (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.95). Common CIMT, SUA, and uACR were associated with 10-year ASCVD risk, with CIMT having a stronger association with 10-year ASCVD risk in both women (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.78-2.14) and men (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.55-1.93) than SUA (women: OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12-1.43; men: OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.26-1.55) and uACR (women: OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.10-1.54; men: OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.15-1.46). The presence of microalbuminuria measured by SUA may indicate risk of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis and high 10-year ASCVD risk in middle-aged residents of sub-Saharan Africa. These data should be confirmed in longitudinal studies of cardiovascular events.

Abstract 9188: Sex Differences in Cardiovascular Risk and Guideline-Based Preventive Medication Use Among Sudden Death Victims

Introduction: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is associated with an increased risk of sudden death. Preventive medications are recommended by clinical practice guidelines for those with elevated ASCVD risk. Guidelines are often underutilized and use of preventive medications differs by sex. Methods: Out-of-hospital deaths of adults aged 18-64 were reported by emergency medical services in Wake County, North Carolina from 2013-2015 and underwent adjudication to identify sudden unexpected death cases. A cohort of 1,114 living controls was generated through random sampling from a central electronic health records repository and propensity scores matched to the sudden death victims based on sex and race. A 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated for all subjects with the requisite components and categorized as low (&lt;7.5%), intermediate (7.5%-19.9%), and high (≥20%). Use of preventive medications, specifically aspirin and statin, was assessed. Logistic regression models were fitted to evaluate the association between 10-year ASCVD risk and sudden death both overall and by sex. Odds ratios for males and females were compared in a pairwise fashion using an adjusted Wald test. Results: The average 10-year ASCVD risk was higher among sudden death victims compared to living controls for both males (36.4 ± 22.2 vs. 16.3 ± 16.0, p-value &lt;0.001) and females (20.6 ± 17.9 vs. 7.1 ± 8.4, p-value &lt;0.001). Among intermediate or high 10-year ASCVD risk sudden death victims and controls, aspirin and statin use were low (13-21%). Among those with intermediate or high ASCVD risk, male sudden death victims were less likely than living controls to be prescribed aspirin (p-value 0.007). Comparing sudden death victims to living controls, there was no difference in statin use among males or in aspirin or statin use among females. There was no significant difference in the strength of association between 10-year ASCVD risk categories and sudden death by sex. Conclusions: Although the average 10-year ASCVD risk of sudden death victims is higher than living controls both overall and by sex, the use of aspirin and statin was low and did not differ significantly between victims and controls. Improvements are needed to increase the use of guideline-based preventive medications.

Implication of thoracic aortic calcification over coronary calcium score regarding the 2018 ACC/AHA Multisociety cholesterol guideline: results from the CAC Consortium

ObjectiveTAC is associated with an increased atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, but it is unclear how to interpret thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) findings in conjunction with ASCVD risk and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score according to 2018 ACC/AHA Multisociety cholesterol guidelines. We evaluate the incremental value of thoracic aortic calcification TAC over CAC for predicting and reclassifying ASCVD mortality risk. MethodThe study included 30,630 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 55 ± 8 years, male: 64%) from the CAC Consortium. TAC was categorized as TAC 0, 1-300, and >300. Patients were categorized as low (<5%), borderline (5–7.5%), intermediate (7.5–20%), or high (≥20%) 10-year ASCVD risk according to the Pooled Cohorts Equation. In the intermediate risk group, the utility of TAC beyond CAC for statin eligibility was assessed according to the guideline. CAC was categorized as CAC=0 (no statin), CAC 1-100 (favors statin), or CAC>100 (initiate stain). ResultsDuring the median 11.2 years (IQR 9.2–12.4) follow-up, 345 (1.1%) CVD deaths occurred. TAC>300 was associated with increased CVD mortality after adjusting for ASCVD risk and CAC (HR:4.72, 95% CI: 3.39–6.57, p<0.001). In borderline and intermediate risk groups, TAC improved discrimination when added to a model included ASCVD risk and CAC (C-statistic: 0.77 vs. 0.68 in borderline group; 0.67 vs. 0.63 in intermediate group, both p < 0.05). The addition of TAC over CAC improved risk reclassification in borderline, intermediate and high-risk groups (categorical net reclassification index: 0.40, 0.29, and 0.49, respectively, all p < 0.001). Of intermediate risk participants for whom consideration of CAC was recommended based on the guideline, TAC >300 was associated with an increased CVD mortality risk across each statin eligibility group (all p < 0.001, compared to TAC 0). ConclusionTAC was independently associated with CVD death. Among individuals with borderline or intermediate ASCVD risk, a TAC threshold of 300 may provide added prognostic and reclassification value beyond the current guideline-based approach.