High Wintertime Research Articles

Winter runoff events pose an unquantified continental-scale risk of high wintertime nutrient export

Winters in snow-covered regions have warmed, likely shifting the timing and magnitude of nutrient export, leading to unquantified changes in water quality. Intermittent, seasonal, and permanent snow covers more than half of the global land surface. Warming has reduced the cold conditions that limit winter runoff and nutrient transport, while cold season snowmelt, the amount of winter precipitation falling as rain, and rain-on-snow have increased. We used existing geospatial datasets (rain-on-snow frequency overlain on nitrogen and phosphorous inventories) to identify areas of the contiguous United States (US) where water quality could be threatened by this change. Next, to illustrate the potential export impacts of these events, we examined flow and turbidity data from a large regional rain-on-snow event in the United States’ largest river basin, the Mississippi River Basin. We show that rain-on-snow, a major flood-generating mechanism for large areas of the globe (Berghuijs et al 2019 Water Resour. Res. 55 4582–93; Berghuijs et al 2016 Geophys. Res. Lett. 43 4382–90), affects 53% of the contiguous US and puts 50% of US nitrogen and phosphorus pools (43% of the contiguous US) at risk of export to groundwater and surface water. Further, the 2019 rain-on-snow event in the Mississippi River Basin demonstrates that these events could have large, cascading impacts on winter nutrient transport. We suggest that the assumption of low wintertime discharge and nutrient transport in historically snow-covered regions no longer holds. Critically, however, we lack sufficient data to accurately measure and predict these episodic and potentially large wintertime nutrient export events at regional to continental scales.

Enhanced secondary aerosol formation driven by excess ammonia during fog episodes in Delhi, India

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) has high wintertime fine aerosol loadings that significantly modulate the widespread fog formation and sustenance. Here, we investigate the potential formation of secondary inorganic aerosol driven by excess ammonia during winter fog. Physicochemical properties of fine aerosols (PM1 and PM2.5) and trace gases (HCl, HONO, HNO3, SO2, and NH3) were simultaneously monitored at hourly resolution using Monitor for AeRosols and Gases in Ambient air (MARGA-2S) for the first time in India. Results showed that four major ions, i.e., Cl−, NO3−, SO42−, and NH4+ contributed approximately 97% of the total measured inorganic ionic mass. The atmosphere was ammonia-rich in winter and ammonium was the dominant neutralizer with aerosol neutralization ratio (ANR) close to unity. The correlation between ammonium and chloride was ≥0.8, implying the significant formation of ammonium chloride during fog in Delhi. Thermodynamical model ISORROPIA-II showed the predicted PM1 and PM2.5 pH to be 4.49 ± 0.53, and 4.58 ± 0.48 respectively which were in good agreement with measurements. The ALWC increased from non-foggy to foggy periods and a considerable fraction of fine aerosol mass existed in the supermicron size range of 1–2.5 μm. The sulfur oxidation ratio (SOR) of PM1, PM2.5 reached up to 0.60, 0.75 in dense fog and 0.74, 0.87 when ambient RH crossed a threshold of 95%, much higher than non-foggy periods (with confidence level of ≥95%) pointing to enhanced formation of secondary aerosol in fog.

Upgrading municipal lagoons in temperate and cold climates: Total nitrogen removal and phosphorus assimilation at ultra‐low temperatures

AbstractIn this study, a municipal lagoon with high wintertime effluent total ammonia nitrogen (TAN) concentrations was upgraded with a pilot‐scale nitrifying‐nitrifying‐denitrifying (NIT‐NIT‐DENIT) moving bed biofilm reactor (MBBR) treatment train to characterize its effluent over wintertime operation, investigate the feasibility of upgrading lagoons to achieve substantial biological total nitrogen removal across ultra‐low temperatures (0.6–3.0) and to investigate nitrification inhibition pathways in facultative lagoon systems at ultra‐low temperatures. Throughout the study, it was observed that the system substantially reduced total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) effluent concentrations by an average of 69.8 ± 24.5% and 74.7 ± 20.1%, respectively. Furthermore, it was observed that sulfide toxicity may play an important role in the inhibition of nitrifying organisms in lagoons. Finally, the MBBR treatment technology has emerged as a suitable and sustainable upgrade technology for existing lagoon and waste stabilization pond facilities operating in temperate, northern and cold climate countries.

Weather regimes and patterns associated with temperature-related excess mortality in the UK: a pathway to sub-seasonal risk forecasting

Non-optimal temperatures, both warm and cold, are associated with enhanced mortality in the United Kingdom (UK). In this study we demonstrate a pathway to sub-seasonal and medium range forecasting of temperature-related mortality risk by quantifying the impact of large-scale weather regimes and synoptic scale weather patterns on temperature-associated excess deaths in 12 regions across the UK. We find a clear dominance of the NAO− regime in leading to high wintertime excess mortality across all regions. In summer, we note that cold spells lead to comparable cumulative excess mortality as moderate hot days, with cold days accounting for 11 (London) to 100% (Northern Ireland) of the summer days with the highest 5% cumulative excess mortality. However, exposure to high temperatures is typically associated with an immediate but short lived spike in mortality, while the impact of cold weather tends to be more delayed and spread out over a longer period. Weather patterns with a Scandinavian high component are most likely to be associated with summer hot extremes, while a strong zonal jet stream weather pattern which rarely occurs in summer is most likely to be associated with summer cold spells.

Comparison of chemical characteristics of PM2.5 during two winters in Xiangtan City in south central China

To assess the efficacy of the “Implementation Details of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan”, the chemical composition of PM2.5 and other pollutants was determined during the winters of 2013–2014 and 2016–2017 at two urban sites in Xiangtan City, Hunan. The concentrations of PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 decreased from 146.0 to 94.5 μg/m3, 75.9 to 33.5 μg/m3, and 80.6 to 55.8 μg/m3, respectively, from winter 2013–2014 to winter 2016–2017. The concentrations of almost all the major chemical components of PM2.5 decreased as well, particularly secondary inorganic aerosols (SIAs). These results indicate that the implementation of the air quality control plan was very effective in improving air quality. Analysis of the data also suggests that SIA formation is likely responsible for high winter PM2.5 pollution and that high relative humidity levels and low wind speed can promote the formation of SIA. A 72-h back trajectory analysis shows that both regional transport and the accumulation of local pollutants under stagnant meteorological conditions promote the occurrence of episodes of high wintertime pollution levels.

Time-Dependent Downscaling of PM2.5 Predictions from CAMS Air Quality Models to Urban Monitoring Sites in Budapest

Budapest, the capital of Hungary, has been facing serious air pollution episodes in the heating season similar to other metropolises. In the city a dense urban air quality monitoring network is available; however, air quality prediction is still challenging. For this purpose, 24-h PM2.5 forecasts obtained from seven individual models of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) were downscaled by using hourly measurements at six urban monitoring sites in Budapest for the heating season of 2018–2019. A 10-day long training period was applied to fit spatially consistent model weights in a linear combination of CAMS models for each day, and the 10-day additive bias was also corrected. Results were compared to the CAMS ensemble median, the 10-day bias-corrected CAMS ensemble median, and the 24-h persistence. Downscaling reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) by 1.4 µg/m3 for the heating season and by 4.3 µg/m3 for episodes compared to the CAMS ensemble, mainly by eliminating the general underestimation of PM2.5 peaks. As a side-effect, an overestimation was introduced in rapidly clearing conditions. Although the bias-corrected ensemble and model fusion had similar overall performance, the latter was more efficient in episodes. Downscaling of the CAMS models was found to be capable and necessary to capture high wintertime PM2.5 concentrations for the short-range air quality prediction in Budapest.

Characterizing Spatial Patterns of NO2 and SO2 in Xi’an by Passive Sampling

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are important air pollutants that affect air quality, human health, and climate. The concentrations of NO2 and SO2 were measured in Xi’an, China with passive samplers deployed at 70 sites in summer and winter. The average concentrations of NO2 and SO2 were 19.82 μg m−3 and 2.24 μg m−3, respectively, in summer and 21.09 μg m−3 and 7.99 μg m−3 in winter. Statistical analyses showed that the seasonal differences in SO2 were significant but those for NO2 were not. The concentrations of NO2 and SO2 in the Beilin district were higher than other districts, while those in Baqiao were relatively low. The concentrations of NO2 in commercial mixed areas were higher compared with other functional areas, and SO2 in the residential/educational areas during winter was high. Spatial distributions of NO2 and SO2 were obtained by ordinary kriging interpolation, and the results showed high summertime NO2 concentrations in the central urban and northwestern parts of the sampling grid and high wintertime NO2 in the central part of the grid. Summer SO2 concentrations were higher in the northern and lower in the southern parts of the grid, while SO2 was in winter high in the mid-west and low in the east.

58 Effect of high vs. standard dose wintertime vitamin D supplementation on adiposity in young healthy children: A secondary analysis of a pragmatic RCT

58 Effect of high vs. standard dose wintertime vitamin D supplementation on adiposity in young healthy children: A secondary analysis of a pragmatic RCT

Advanced household heat pumps for air pollution control: A pilot field study in Ulaanbaatar, the coldest capital city in the world

Ulaanbaatar - the coldest capital in the world - is home to half of Mongolia's population, much of which uses coal for household heating, contributing to high wintertime air pollution. We piloted two-stage air-to-air heat pumps in 2017, when temperatures dropped to −39 °C. These heat pumps were reliable and efficient, with an average coefficient of performance of 1.86 on the coldest days. Heat pumps’ recurrent costs were similar to those of coal stoves and lower than those of resistive heaters.

Oysters as sentinels of climate variability and climate change in coastal ecosystems

Beyond key ecological services, marine resources are crucial for human food security and socio-economical sustainability. Among them, shellfish aquaculture and fishing are of primary importance but become more vulnerable under anthropogenic pressure, as evidenced by reported mass mortality events linked to global changes such as ocean warming and acidification, chemical contamination, and diseases. Understanding climate-related risks is a vital objective for conservation strategies, ecosystems management and human health. We provide here a comprehensive study of the historical mortality of adult oysters related to observed climate variability along the French Atlantic coast from 1986 to 2015, and we built on this knowledge to develop hindcast and forecast assessments of the oyster mortality risk from 1900 to 2100. We show that mortality events usually occur several months after winters dominated by the occurrence of positive North Atlantic oscillation (NAO+) atmospheric regimes of circulation. We explain the lagged response by the multiseasonal long-lasting imprint of wintertime NAO+ on biological and environmental factors, which partly structure oyster mortality etiology. Very high wintertime seawater temperature anomalies at the interannual timescale, which were mostly attributable to internal climate variability through NAO+ and which led to pronounced mortality over the observed period, are then treated as ‘analogs’ in a large ensemble of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios and models in order to anticipate future risks. Without any adaptive process, we provide evidence that actual exceptional mortality is likely to become the norm by ∼2035, even if global warming is limited to +2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.

Wintertime enhancements of sea salt aerosol in polar regions consistent with a sea ice source from blowing snow

Abstract. Sea salt aerosols (SSA) are generated via air bubbles bursting at the ocean surface as well as by wind mobilization of saline snow and frost flowers over sea-ice-covered areas. The relative magnitude of these sources remains poorly constrained over polar regions, affecting our ability to predict their impact on halogen chemistry, cloud formation, and climate. We implement a blowing snow and a frost flower emission scheme in the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model, which we validate against multiyear (2001–2008) in situ observations of SSA mass concentrations at three sites in the Arctic, two sites in coastal Antarctica, and from the 2008 ICEALOT cruise in the Arctic. A simulation including only open ocean emissions underestimates SSA mass concentrations by factors of 2–10 during winter–spring for all ground-based and ship-based observations. When blowing snow emissions are added, the model is able to reproduce observed wintertime SSA concentrations, with the model bias decreasing from a range of −80 to −34 % for the open ocean simulation to −2 to +9 % for the simulation with blowing snow emissions. We find that the frost flower parameterization cannot fully explain the high wintertime concentrations and displays a seasonal cycle decreasing too rapidly in early spring. Furthermore, the high day-to-day variability of observed SSA is better reproduced by the blowing snow parameterization. Over the Arctic (> 60° N) (Antarctic, > 60° S), we calculate that submicron SSA emissions from blowing snow account for 1.0 Tg yr−1 (2.5 Tg yr−1), while frost flower emissions lead to 0.21 Tg yr−1 (0.25 Tg yr−1) compared to 0.78 Tg yr−1 (1.0 Tg yr−1) from the open ocean. Blowing snow emissions are largest in regions where persistent strong winds occur over sea ice (east of Greenland, over the central Arctic, Beaufort Sea, and the Ross and Weddell seas). In contrast, frost flower emissions are largest where cold air temperatures and open leads are co-located (over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, coastal regions of Siberia, and off the Ross and Ronne ice shelves). Overall, in situ observations of mass concentrations of SSA suggest that blowing snow is likely to be the dominant SSA source during winter, with frost flowers playing a much smaller role.

Airborne particulate in Varanasi over middle Indo-Gangetic Plain: variation in particulate types and meteorological influences.

The variation in particulate mass and particulate types (PM2.5 and PM10) with respect to local/regional meteorology was analyzed from January to December 2014 (n=104) for an urban location over the middle Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Both coarser (mean ± SD; PM10 161.3±110.4μgm-3, n=104) and finer particulates (PM2.5 81.78 ± 66.4μgm-3) revealed enormous mass loading with distinct seasonal effects (range: PM10 12-535μgm-3; PM2.5 8-362μgm-3). Further, 56% (for PM2.5) to 81% (for PM10) of monitoring events revealed non-attainment national air quality standard especially during winter months. Particulate types (in terms of PM2.5/PM10 0.49±0.19) also exhibited temporal variations with high PM2.5 loading particularly during winter (0.62) compared to summer months (0.38). Local meteorology has clear distinguishing trends in terms of dry summer (March to June), wet winter (December to February), and monsoon (July to September). Among all the meteorological variables (average temperature, rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS)), temperature was found to be inversely related with particulate loading (rPM10 -0.79; rPM2.5 -0.87) while RH only resulted a significant association with PM2.5 during summer (rPM10 0.07; rPM2.5 0.55) and with PM10 during winter (rPM10 0.53; rPM2.5 0.24). Temperature, atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), and RH were cumulatively recognized as the dominant factors regulating particulate concentration as days with high particulate loading (PM2.5 >150μgm-3; PM10 >260μgm-3) appeared to have lower ABL (mean 660m), minimum temperature (<22.6°C), and high RH (∼79%). The diurnal variations of particulate ratio were mostly insignificant except minor increases during night having a high wintertime ratio (0.58±0.07) over monsoon (0.34±0.05) and summer (0.30±0.07). Across the region, atmospheric visibility appeared to be inversely associated with particulate (rPM2.5 -0.84; rPM10 -0.79) for all humid conditions, while at RH ≥80%, RH appeared as the most dominant factor in regulating visibility compared to particulate loading. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model was further used to identify possible regions contributing particulate loading through regional/transboundary movement.

Projecting and Forecasting Winter Precipitation Extremes and Meteorological Drought in California Using the North Pacific High Sea Level Pressure Anomaly

Abstract Large-scale climatic indices have been used as predictors of precipitation totals and extremes in many studies and are used operationally in weather forecasts to circumvent the difficulty in obtaining robust dynamical simulations of precipitation. The authors show that the sea level pressure North Pacific high (NPH) wintertime anomaly, a component of the Northern Oscillation index (NOI), provides a superior covariate of interannual precipitation variability in Northern California, including seasonal precipitation totals, drought, and extreme precipitation intensity, compared to traditional ENSO indices such as the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), Niño-3.4, and others. Furthermore, the authors show that the NPH anomaly more closely reflects the influence of Pacific basin conditions over California in general, over groups of stations used to characterize statewide precipitation in the Sierra Nevada range, and over the southern San Francisco Bay region (NASA Ames Research Center). This paper uses the term prediction to refer to the estimation of precipitation (the predictand) from a climate covariate (the predictor), such as a climate index, or atmospheric moisture. In this sense, predictor and predictand are simultaneous in time. Statistical models employed show the effectiveness of the NPH winter anomaly as a predictor of total winter precipitation and daily precipitation extremes at the Moffett Field station. NPH projected by global climate models is also used in conjunction with atmospheric humidity [atmospheric specific humidity (HUS) at the 850-hPa level] to obtain projections of mean and extreme precipitation. The authors show that future development of accurate forecasts of NPH anomalies issued several months in advance is important for forecasting total winter precipitation and is expected to directly benefit water resource management in California. Therefore, the authors suggest that investigating the lead-time predictability of NPH anomalies is an important direction for future research.

Robotic observations of high wintertime carbon export in California coastal waters

Abstract. Biologically mediated particulate organic and inorganic carbon (POC and PIC) export from surface waters is the principal determinant of the vertical oceanic distribution of pH and dissolved inorganic carbon and thus sets the conditions for air–sea exchange of CO2; exported organic matter also provides the energy fueling communities in the mesopelagic zone. However, observations are temporally and spatially sparse. Here we report the first hourly-resolved optically quantified POC and PIC sedimentation rate time series from an autonomous Lagrangian Carbon Flux Explorer (CFE), which monitored particle flux using an imaging optical sedimentation recorder (OSR) at depths below 140 m in the Santa Cruz Basin, CA, in May 2012, and in January and March 2013. Highest POC vertical flux ( ∼ 100–240 mmol C m−2 d−1) occurred in January, when most settling material was millimeter- to centimeter-sized aggregates but when surface biomass was low; fluxes were ∼ 18 and ∼ 6 mmol C m−2 d−1, respectively, in March and May, under high surface biomass conditions. An unexpected discovery was that January 2013 fluxes measured by CFE were 20 times higher than that measured by simultaneously deployed surface-tethered OSR; multiple lines of evidence indicate strong undersampling of aggregates larger than 1 mm in the latter case. Furthermore, the January 2013 CFE fluxes were about 10 times higher than observed during multiyear sediment trap observations in the nearby Santa Barbara and San Pedro basins. The strength of carbon export in biologically dynamic California coastal waters is likely underestimated by at least a factor of 3 and at times by a factor of 20.

Overview of VOC emissions and chemistry from PTR-TOF-MS measurements during the SusKat-ABC campaign: high acetaldehyde, isoprene and isocyanic acid in wintertime air of the Kathmandu Valley

Abstract. The Kathmandu Valley in Nepal suffers from severe wintertime air pollution. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are key constituents of air pollution, though their specific role in the valley is poorly understood due to insufficient data. During the SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley–Atmospheric Brown Clouds) field campaign conducted in Nepal in the winter of 2012–2013, a comprehensive study was carried out to characterise the chemical composition of ambient Kathmandu air, including the determination of speciated VOCs, by deploying a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-TOF-MS) – the first such deployment in South Asia. In the study, 71 ion peaks (for which measured ambient concentrations exceeded the 2σ detection limit) were detected in the PTR-TOF-MS mass scan data, highlighting the chemical complexity of ambient air in the valley. Of the 71 species, 37 were found to have campaign average concentrations greater than 200 ppt and were identified based on their spectral characteristics, ambient diel profiles and correlation with specific emission tracers as a result of the high mass resolution (m ∕ Δm &gt; 4200) and temporal resolution (1 min) of the PTR-TOF-MS. The concentration ranking in the average VOC mixing ratios during our wintertime deployment was acetaldehyde (8.8 ppb) &gt; methanol (7.4 ppb) &gt; acetone + propanal (4.2 ppb) &gt; benzene (2.7 ppb) &gt; toluene (1.5 ppb) &gt; isoprene (1.1 ppb) &gt; acetonitrile (1.1 ppb) &gt; C8-aromatics ( ∼ 1 ppb) &gt; furan ( ∼ 0.5 ppb) &gt; C9-aromatics (0.4 ppb). Distinct diel profiles were observed for the nominal isobaric compounds isoprene (m ∕ z = 69.070) and furan (m ∕ z = 69.033). Comparison with wintertime measurements from several locations elsewhere in the world showed mixing ratios of acetaldehyde ( ∼ 9 ppb), acetonitrile ( ∼ 1 ppb) and isoprene ( ∼ 1 ppb) to be among the highest reported to date. Two "new" ambient compounds, namely formamide (m ∕ z = 46.029) and acetamide (m ∕ z = 60.051), which can photochemically produce isocyanic acid in the atmosphere, are reported in this study along with nitromethane (a tracer for diesel exhaust), which has only recently been detected in ambient studies. Two distinct periods were selected during the campaign for detailed analysis: the first was associated with high wintertime emissions of biogenic isoprene and the second with elevated levels of ambient acetonitrile, benzene and isocyanic acid from biomass burning activities. Emissions from biomass burning and biomass co-fired brick kilns were found to be the dominant sources for compounds such as propyne, propene, benzene and propanenitrile, which correlated strongly with acetonitrile (r2 &gt; 0.7), a chemical tracer for biomass burning. The calculated total VOC OH reactivity was dominated by acetaldehyde (24.0 %), isoprene (20.2 %) and propene (18.7 %), while oxygenated VOCs and isoprene collectively contributed to more than 68 % of the total ozone production potential. Based on known secondary organic aerosol (SOA) yields and measured ambient concentrations in the Kathmandu Valley, the relative SOA production potential of VOCs were benzene &gt; naphthalene &gt; toluene &gt; xylenes &gt; monoterpenes &gt; trimethylbenzenes &gt; styrene &gt; isoprene. The first ambient measurements from any site in South Asia of compounds with significant health effects such as isocyanic acid, formamide, acetamide, naphthalene and nitromethane have been reported in this study. Our results suggest that mitigation of intense wintertime biomass burning activities, in particular point sources such biomass co-fired brick kilns, would be important to reduce the emission and formation of toxic VOCs (such as benzene and isocyanic acid) in the Kathmandu Valley.

Reactive nitrogen partitioning and its relationship to winter ozone events in Utah

Abstract. High wintertime ozone levels have been observed in the Uintah Basin, Utah, a sparsely populated rural region with intensive oil and gas operations. The reactive nitrogen budget plays an important role in tropospheric ozone formation. Measurements were taken during three field campaigns in the winters of 2012, 2013 and 2014, which experienced varying climatic conditions. Average concentrations of ozone and total reactive nitrogen were observed to be 2.5 times higher in 2013 than 2012, with 2014 an intermediate year in most respects. However, photochemically active NOx (NO + NO2) remained remarkably similar all three years. Nitric acid comprised roughly half of NOz ( ≡ NOy − NOx) in 2013, with nighttime nitric acid formation through heterogeneous uptake of N2O5 contributing approximately 6 times more than daytime formation. In 2012, N2O5 and ClNO2 were larger components of NOz relative to HNO3. The nighttime N2O5 lifetime between the high-ozone year 2013 and the low-ozone year 2012 is lower by a factor of 2.6, and much of this is due to higher aerosol surface area in the high-ozone year of 2013. A box-model simulation supports the importance of nighttime chemistry on the reactive nitrogen budget, showing a large sensitivity of NOx and ozone concentrations to nighttime processes.

Using Ozone Lidar to Investigate Sources of High Ozone Concentrations in the Western United States

We have used NOAA’s Tunable Optical Profiler for Aerosol and oZone (TOPAZ) ozone lidar to investigate the sources of high surface ozone concentrations in two different regions of the western United States (US): the Uintah Basin in northeast Utah and Clark County in southern Nevada, which includes the city of Las Vegas. The Uintah Basin is a booming oil and gas producing region that often suffers from very high wintertime ozone concentrations. Clark County experiences violations of the US ozone standard primarily in spring and early summer despite a lack of any major local pollution sources. TOPAZ lidar observations, in conjunction with surface in situ measurements and model results, provided strong evidence that the high wintertime ozone concentrations in the Uintah Basin are primarily driven by local emissions associated with oil and gas exploration, whereas the Clark County ozone exceedances are often caused by ozone-rich air that is transported from the lower stratosphere all the way down to the earth’s surface.

Understanding high wintertime ozone pollution events in an oil- and natural gas-producing region of the western US

Abstract. Recent increases in oil and natural gas (NG) production throughout the western US have come with scientific and public interest in emission rates, air quality and climate impacts related to this industry. This study uses a regional-scale air quality model (WRF-Chem) to simulate high ozone (O3) episodes during the winter of 2013 over the Uinta Basin (UB) in northeastern Utah, which is densely populated by thousands of oil and NG wells. The high-resolution meteorological simulations are able qualitatively to reproduce the wintertime cold pool conditions that occurred in 2013, allowing the model to reproduce the observed multi-day buildup of atmospheric pollutants and the accompanying rapid photochemical ozone formation in the UB. Two different emission scenarios for the oil and NG sector were employed in this study. The first emission scenario (bottom-up) was based on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Inventory (NEI) (2011, version 1) for the oil and NG sector for the UB. The second emission scenario (top-down) was based on estimates of methane (CH4) emissions derived from in situ aircraft measurements and a regression analysis for multiple species relative to CH4 concentration measurements in the UB. Evaluation of the model results shows greater underestimates of CH4 and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the simulation with the NEI-2011 inventory than in the case when the top-down emission scenario was used. Unlike VOCs, the NEI-2011 inventory significantly overestimates the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), while the top-down emission scenario results in a moderate negative bias. The model simulation using the top-down emission case captures the buildup and afternoon peaks observed during high O3 episodes. In contrast, the simulation using the bottom-up inventory is not able to reproduce any of the observed high O3 concentrations in the UB. Simple emission reduction scenarios show that O3 production is VOC sensitive and NOx insensitive within the UB. The model results show a disproportionate contribution of aromatic VOCs to O3 formation relative to all other VOC emissions. The model analysis reveals that the major factors driving high wintertime O3 in the UB are shallow boundary layers with light winds, high emissions of VOCs from oil and NG operations compared to NOx emissions, enhancement of photolysis fluxes and reduction of O3 loss from deposition due to snow cover.

The scavenging processes controlling the seasonal cycle in Arctic sulphate and black carbon aerosol

Abstract. The seasonal cycle in Arctic aerosol is typified by high concentrations of large aged anthropogenic particles transported from lower latitudes in the late Arctic winter and early spring followed by a sharp transition to low concentrations of locally sourced smaller particles in the summer. However, multi-model assessments show that many models fail to simulate a realistic cycle. Here, we use a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP) and surface-level aerosol observations to understand how wet scavenging processes control the seasonal variation in Arctic black carbon (BC) and sulphate aerosol. We show that the transition from high wintertime concentrations to low concentrations in the summer is controlled by the transition from ice-phase cloud scavenging to the much more efficient warm cloud scavenging in the late spring troposphere. This seasonal cycle is amplified further by the appearance of warm drizzling cloud in the late spring and summer boundary layer. Implementing these processes in GLOMAP greatly improves the agreement between the model and observations at the three Arctic ground-stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin Mountain on Svalbard. The SO4 model-observation correlation coefficient (R) increases from: −0.33 to 0.71 at Alert (82.5° N), from −0.16 to 0.70 at Point Barrow (71.0° N) and from −0.42 to 0.40 at Zeppelin Mountain (78° N). The BC model-observation correlation coefficient increases from −0.68 to 0.72 at Alert and from −0.42 to 0.44 at Barrow. Observations at three marginal Arctic sites (Janiskoski, Oulanka and Karasjok) indicate a far weaker aerosol seasonal cycle, which we show is consistent with the much smaller seasonal change in the frequency of ice clouds compared to higher latitude sites. Our results suggest that the seasonal cycle in Arctic aerosol is driven by temperature-dependent scavenging processes that may be susceptible to modification in a future climate.

The Future of Fracking: New Rules Target Air Emissions for Cleaner Natural Gas Production

Natural gas is lauded as a cleaner-burning fuel than either coal or oil, but getting the fuel out of the ground can be a dirty process, especially given the widespread adoption of the technology known as hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”). Concerns about toxic air emissions from previously unregulated fracking sites led to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announcement on 18 April 2012 of new and updated air pollution regulations for these facilities and certain other elements of oil and natural gas production and transmission.1 Compliance with the new regulations is expected to result in major reductions in emissions of methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), particularly from new fracked natural gas wells. The rules were a hot topic nationally, drawing more than 156,000 comments after the proposed version was released in mid-2011. Under the final rules, companies have until January 2015 to fully phase in the control measures needed; by comparison, the initial proposal called for a 60-day phase-in for many major requirements. The EPA says about half of all new wells already use the equipment needed to capture the targeted emissions.2 A hydraulic fracturing natural gas drilling rig on the eastern Colorado plains. In 2009 there were more than 38,000 natural gas wells in the state. Many environmental groups consider the new regulations an improvement over the existing situation, but they tend to be disappointed much more wasn’t done. “This is quite a milestone,” says Jeremy Nichols, Climate and Energy Program director for the advocacy group WildEarth Guardians, one of two groups that filed suit against the EPA in 2009 to force action on the issue. “But is the work done? No, of course not. It’s a floor to build on, providing a minimal level of protection.” The oil and natural gas industry has its own concerns about the new rules but has indicated it can work with them. In a press release issued the day the rules were announced, Howard Feldman, director of regulatory and scientific affairs for the American Petroleum Institute, said, “EPA has made some improvements in the rules that allow our companies to continue reducing emissions while producing the oil and natural gas our country needs.”3