This paper explores the feasibility of estimating fracture toughness (KIC,pred) for nine high-strength rail steels using data from smooth tensile and instrumented ball indentation test methods via a modified critical fracture strain model. The modification focuses on determining the equivalent plastic fracture strain and equivalent plastic strain from tensile and indentation tests, respectively, as well as the characteristic distance needed for estimation of fracture initiation. It shows that stress triaxiality plays a vital role by decreasing the ductility required to initiate fracture, based on the kinetic damage evolution law for a multiaxial stress state. A void growth index model was established from average grain sizes, and then used as the characteristic distance for fracture initiation. At the end, the KIC,pred defined based on equivalent plastic strain from tensile tests showed a strong correlation with KIC determined from ASTM standard method. KIC,pred from indentation also offers the opportunity for ascertaining the possibility of estimating the fracture toughness of high strength rail steels, non-destructively by focusing on the equivalent plastic strain and pressure at the tip of the indenter.