High-speed Intercity Passenger Rail Research Articles

Synthesis of North American High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecasting

This paper presents a synthesis of two decades of ridership forecasts developed for proposed high-speed intercity passenger rail (HSR) routes in various stages of development across North America. A comprehensive database of ridership forecasts consisted of 210 ridership estimates from 43 unique intercity corridors. Analysis of the database revealed that increasing the maximum operating speed of the HSR service increased ridership, and a simple multiple linear regression model yielded demand elasticities that were consistent with values reported in published rider-ship studies. Regarding the impacts of HSR on the broader transportation system, this synthesis found that the mode share of HSR as well as the percentage of airline trips diverted to HSR services increased as the maximum speed of the system increased. The percentage of induced trips and the percentage of automobile trips diverted to HSR did not vary significantly with speed. Whereas this synthesis provides a starting point for a broader discussion about the importance of ridership forecasting in the development of the U.S. HSR network, each intercity corridor being considered for HSR service is unique, and market-specific ridership studies should be undertaken to identify the various ridership and other metrics necessary for service development. Improvements to the forecasting process, including greater transparency in the forecasting metrics reported as well as post facto evaluation of the ridership forecast against actual passenger traffic, would benefit the entire HSR service development process.

Integrated Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution Framework for Evaluating High-Speed Passenger Rail Corridor Alternatives

This paper develops a multiple criteria and multimethod approach for evaluating the suitability of alternative right-of-way (ROW) corridors to accommodate high-speed intercity passenger rail (HSIPR) operations. An alignment decision for HSIPR involves consideration of multiple criteria and trade-offs. Policy makers often face uncertainty in evaluating and selecting alternative options and usually consider alternatives in a fuzzy environment in which subjectivity and vagueness are present. This paper develops an integrated evaluation model that uses the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) methods to address some of these issues. The study identifies potential sketch-planning performance metrics and demonstrates their usefulness and inclusion in the integrated fuzzy AHP–TOPSIS methodology in comparing alternative ROW corridor options. In contrast to detailed engineering evaluation, the developed sketch-planning metrics provide a cost- and time-effective way of assessing alternative suitability. A case study application with existing highway ROW in Texas demonstrates the applicability of the proposed framework. Apart from ranking alternatives, a detailed sensitivity analysis assesses the effect of performance metrics weights on the preferences between alternatives using a displacement index. The proposed framework creates a more effective and systematic decision support tool for preliminary corridor alternative evaluation.

Development of Multicriteria Decision Method for Evaluating High-Speed Rail Corridor

Projects for high-speed intercity passenger rail are complex and require many years of planning and environmental activities before construction can begin. Given the complexity of planning and environmental reviews associated with planning a high-speed intercity passenger rail corridor, a systematic approach for high-level screening of various alternative routings for proposed high-speed rail corridors is desirable. In this context, a multicriteria decision-making framework was proposed to assist planners of high-speed rail with the preliminary screening and ranking of potential high-speed rail corridors. The proposed framework was applied to the question of ranking 13 alternative routings for connecting the South Central and Gulf Coast federally designated highspeed rail corridors located in Texas. Attributes that were incorporated into the decision framework include population, travel demand, capital costs, land use and environmental impacts, and engineering suitability. Although the developed framework cannot be used to replace the environmental review process and formal alternatives analysis completely, it can be used by planners as a tool for preliminary screening or ranking of proposed high-speed rail corridors for detailed analysis.

Forecasting high-speed rail ridership using a simultaneous modeling approach

The newly launched, June 2009, US High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Program has rekindled a renewed interest in forecasting high-speed rail (HSR) ridership. The first step to the concerted effort by the federal, state, rail, and other related agencies to develop a nationwide HSR network is the development of credible approaches to forecast the ridership. This article presents a nested logit/simultaneous choice model to improve the demand forecast in the context of intercity travel. In addition to incorporating the interrelationship between trip generation and mode choice decisions, the simultaneous model also provides a platform for the same utility function flowing between both the decision-making processes. Using American Travel Survey data, supplemented by various mode parameters, the proposed model improves the forecast accuracy and confirms the significant impact of travel costs on both mode choice and trip generation. Furthermore, the cross elasticity of mode choice and trip generation related to travel costs and other modal characteristics may shed some light on transportation policies in the area of intercity travel, especially in anticipation of HSR development.

American intercity passenger rail must be truly high-speed and transit-oriented

The High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail (HSIPR) Program succeeds in proposing a truly high-speed rail route in California that will offer travelers significantly faster trips than driving on a route that is too short to conveniently fly instead. Unfortunately, the proposed routes in the Northeast, Midwest, and Northwest will continue to chug along at medium-speeds and attract few new riders from among those who currently travel those areas via highway or air. The plan does indeed succeed in calling for TOD around high-speed rail stations. The HSIPR Program must, however, encourage local planning jurisdictions to broadly liberalize land use controls to allow for compact development rather than writing new zoning codes to require the intensive land uses developers desire anyway. Trains must truly be fast, with stations surrounded by dense development, for America’s high-speed rail plan to realize its full potential.