Purpose This study aims to get a better understanding of the impact of streamlined high-speed trains (HSTs) with geometric uncertainty on aerodynamic performance, as well as the identification of the key parameters responsible for this impact. To reveal the critical parameters, this study creates a methodology for evaluating the uncertainty and sensitivity of drag coefficient induced by design parameters of HST streamlined shapes. Design/methodology/approach Bézier curves are used to parameterize the streamlined shape of HSTs, and there are eight design parameters required to fit the streamlined shape, followed by a series of steady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations. Combining the preparation work with the nonintrusive polynomial chaos method results in a workflow for uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis. Based on this framework, this study quantifies the uncertainty of drag, pressure, surface friction coefficient and wake flow characteristics within the defined ranges of streamline shape parameters, as well as the contribution of each design parameter. Findings The results show that the change in drag reaches a maximum deviation of 15.37% from the baseline, and the impact on the tail car is more significant, with a deviation of up to 23.98%. The streamlined shape of the upper surface and the length of the pilot (The device is mounted on the front of a train’s locomotive and primarily serves to remove obstacles from the tracks, thereby preventing potential derailment.) are responsible for the dominant factors of the uncertainty in the drag for HSTs. Linear regression results show a significant quadratic polynomial relationship between the length of the pilot and the drag coefficient. The drag declines as the length of the pilot enlarges. By analyzing the case with the lowest drag, the positive pressure area in the front of pilot is greatly reduced, while the nose tip pressure of the tail is enhanced by altering the vortices in the wake. The counter-rotating vortex pair is significantly attenuated. Accordingly, exerts the impacts caused by geometric uncertainty can be found on the wake flow region, with pressure differences of up to 900 Pa. The parameters associated with the shape of the upper surface contribute significantly to the uncertainty in the core of the wake separation region. Originality/value The findings contribute to a better understanding of the impact of streamlined HSTs with geometric uncertainty on aerodynamic performance, as well as the identification of the key parameters responsible for this impact. Based on this study, future research could delve into the detailed design of critical areas in the streamlined shape of HSTs, as well as the direction of shape optimization to more precisely and efficiently reduce train aerodynamic drag under typical conditions.
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