Periods Of High Solar Activity Research Articles

Exploring ionospheric plasma density trends in the Indian equatorial crest region under varying solar activity conditions

Long-term trends in the evolution of ionospheric plasma at Hyderabad (17.38∘N, 78.48∘E; 8.52∘N Magnetic Latitude), a near-equatorial anomaly (EIA) crest region of the Indian ionospheric sector, have been studied using 9 years of vertical Total Electron Content (TEC) data from 2004 to 2009 and 2011 to 2013 using global positioning satellites (GPS) measurements. The study examined the mean diurnal, monthly, seasonal, and yearly variations of TEC during geomagnetic quiet days in different seasons from 2004 to 2013. The findings reveal that the daytime TEC at the anomaly crest region exhibits semi-annual variations throughout the study period, while midnight TEC shows semi-annual variation only during the high solar activity years of 2011–2013. The winter anomaly was observed in 2004 and 2006. The study also assessed the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2016 model in reproducing GPS TEC variability at the equatorial crest region. The diurnal and seasonal variation patterns in IRI-TEC show a good correlation with GPS TEC. However, the IRI 2016 model tends to overestimate TEC values during low solar activity conditions (2006–2009) but represents TEC variations reasonably well during high solar activity periods (2011–2013). Nevertheless, the IRI model fails to capture the wide plateau-like structure in the peak TEC, typically occurring between 1200–1600 IST at Hyderabad. Additionally, IRI-TEC consistently indicates very low TEC values during the early morning hours, whereas GPS-TEC measurements suggest a significant presence of plasma density. The study suggests a strong influence of the solar cycle on TEC variations at Hyderabad, evident from the positive correlation (R2=0.71) with the F10.7 cm index. This characteristic is also well represented by the IRI 2016 model.

Fast and accurate evaluation of deep-space galactic cosmic ray fluxes with HelMod-4/CUDA

The accurate knowledge of cosmic ion fluxes is essential for fundamental physics, deep space missions, and exploration activities in the solar system. In the HelMod-4 model the Parker transport equation is solved using a Monte Carlo approach to evaluate the solar modulation effect on local interstellar spectra of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). This work presents the latest updates to the HelMod-4 model parameters, focusing on the descending phase of solar cycle 24. The updates are motivated by the latest high-precision measurements from the AMS-02 detector which revealed for the first time with high accuracy the features of GCR fluxes’ evolution during a period of positive interplanetary magnetic field polarity. Furthermore, we present HelMod-4/CUDA, a GPU-accelerated approach for solving the Parker equation in the heliosphere using a stochastic differential equation method. The code is an evolution of the HelMod-4 code, porting the algorithm to GPU architecture using the CUDA programming language. This approach achieves significant speedup compared to a CPU implementation. The HelMod-4/CUDA code has been validated by comparing its results with the most precise and updated experimental GCR spectra observed during high and low solar activity periods, both in the inner and outer heliosphere, at the Earth location, and outside the ecliptic plane. The comparison shows that HelMod-4 and HelMod-4/CUDA can be equivalently used to provide solar-modulated spectra with a similar degree of accuracy in reproducing observed data.

Assimilating Space‐Based Thermospheric Neutral Density (TND) Data Into the TIE‐GCM Coupled Model During Periods With Low and High Solar Activity

AbstractThe global estimation of Thermospheric Neutral Density (TND) and electron density (Ne) on various altitudes are provided by upper atmosphere models, however, the quality of their forecasts needs to be improved. In this study, we present the impact of assimilating space‐based TNDs, measured along Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission, into the NCAR Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE‐GCM). In these experiments, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) merger of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) community software is applied. To cover various space‐based TND data and both low and high solar activity periods, we used the measurements of CHAMP (Challenging Minisatellite Payload) and Swarm‐C as assimilated observations. The TND forecasts are then validated against independent TNDs of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission) and Swarm‐B, respectively. To introduce the impact of the thermosphere on estimating ionospheric parameters, the outputs of Ne are validated against the radio occultation data. The Data Assimilation (DA) results indicate that TIE‐GCM overestimates (underestimates) TND and Ne during low (high) solar activity. Considerable improvements are found in forecasting TNDs after DA, that is, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) is reduced by 79% and 51% during low and high solar activity periods, respectively. The reduction values for Ne are found to be 52.3% and 40.4%, respectively.

The problem of treating acne and rosacea in women of reproductive age

Often enough, women of reproductive age make medical appointments for problems such as acne and rosacea. Treatment of these diseases in this group of patients has unique features. For example, isotretinoin can only be administered for some indications and in combination with most effective contraceptive methods due to its teratogenicity. Also worth noting is that acne prevalence rates among pregnant women are quite high – up to 43% according to various studies. In fact, symptoms of the disease develop during the second and third trimesters. The choice of therapy for these patients is limited and mainly includes topical drugs. The acne management strategies in women planning pregnancy are similar to that in pregnant women. Foreign studies show the relationship between rosacea and hormonal and reproductive factors. Thus, the disease often develops in premenopause; the risk of developing rosacea is also increased in nulliparous women and women delivering their first and last child at an older age. In our practice, we often prescribe a 1% clindamycin solution as a topical antibiotic. The drug is easy to apply and is not visible on the skin after its use. Absence of drug-induced photosensitivity is a significant advantage of the solution over drugs from other groups, which allows using the drug during periods of high solar activity (in particular, in spring and summer). This is also important for patients with rosacea, as exposure to ultraviolet light is one of the factors known to aggravate the disease. A number of management strategies and treatment algorithm for patients of reproductive age suffering from acne and rosacea that are provided in this work will help physicians to select the optimal and safe treatment with due account for reproductive life plans.

GRACE-FO radiation pressure modelling for accurate density and crosswind retrieval

Uncertainties in radiation pressure modelling play a significant role in the thermospheric density and crosswind observations derived from the GRACE-FO accelerometer, especially during low solar activity. Under such conditions, the radiation pressure acceleration matches the magnitude of the aerodynamic acceleration along the track and exceeds it in the cross-track direction. The GRACE-FO mission has been operating for several years at such high altitudes during both low and rising solar activity, providing a perfect opportunity to study the effects of radiation pressure. This research uses ray tracing based on a high-fidelity satellite geometry model to calculate the radiation pressure acceleration. We numerically fine-tuned the coefficients describing the thermo-optical surface properties to obtain more accurate radiation pressure accelerations than those specified in the GRACE-FO mission manual. We also used in situ temperature measurements from thermistors on the solar arrays to model the satellite’s thermal emission. These temperature measurements allowed a realistic setup of the thermal model, extended by the parameter describing the efficiency of the solar cells, and reproduced the acceleration of the thermal emission with an accuracy of RMS 0.148 nms−2. The combination of the updated thermal model and the fine-tuning of the surface coefficients improved the accuracy of the crosswind acceleration to an RMS of 0.55 nms−2, compared to an RMS of 4.22 nms−2 when using panel models and instantaneous thermal radiation. We compared the observed crosswind with two models: HWM14 and TIE-GCM. While both models capture most of the salient features of the observed crosswind, HWM14 shows particularly good agreement at high latitudes. Compared to the previously employed radiation pressure model, the crosswind observations have been improved in low and mid-latitudes, especially during periods of higher solar activity. Since the effect of radiation pressure is most significant in the crosswind direction, the effect on density was small compared to previously published datasets.

The temporal and latitudinal dependences of turbulence driven by pickup ions in the outer heliosphere

The distribution of turbulence in the heliosphere remains a mystery, due to the complexity in not only modeling the turbulence transport equations but also identifying the drivers of turbulence that vary with time and spatial location. Beyond the ionization cavity (a few astronomical units (AU) from the Sun), the turbulence is driven predominantly by freshly created pickup ions (PUIs), in contrast to the driving by stream shear and compression. Understanding the source characteristics is necessary to refine turbulence transport models and interpret measurements of turbulence and solar wind temperature in the outer heliosphere. Using a recent latitude-dependent solar wind speed model and the ionization rate of neutral interstellar hydrogen (H), we investigate the temporal and spatial variation in the strength of low-frequency turbulence driven by PUIs from 1998 to 2020. We find that the driving rate is stronger during periods of high solar activity and at lower latitudes in the outer heliosphere. The driving rates for parallel and anti-parallel propagating (relative to the background magnetic field) slab turbulence have different spatial and latitude dependences. The calculated generation rate of turbulence by PUIs is an essential ingredient to investigate the latitude dependence of turbulence in the outer heliosphere, which is important to understand the heating of the distant solar wind and the modulation of cosmic rays.

Features of the Structure of the Winter Morning High- and Mid-Latitude Ionosphere

The structure of the winter morning (0500–0900 LT) ionosphere in the Northern and Southern hemispheres is studied in detail. For this, CHAMP satellite data for quiet conditions during the period of high solar activity of 2000–2002 are used. Careful analysis is used to identify electron concentration troughs: the high-latitude ionospheric trough; subauroral, or main, ionospheric trough; and mid-latitude ring ionospheric trough. In order to identify and separate the high-latitude and main ionospheric troughs, the model of auroral diffuse precipitation of the Polar Geophysical Institute is used, which describes the boundaries of low-latitude zone I and high-latitude zone II of auroral diffuse precipitation. The longitudinal variations of the precipitation boundaries are corrected using the DMSP satellite data. The problem of separating the troughs becomes more complicated with the passage of local time, because the main ionospheric trough is more strongly displaced to the pole than the auroral oval; therefore, its area of existence begins to overlap the area of existence of the high-latitude trough. In order to identify and separate the main and ring troughs, all, even weak, geomagnetic disturbances for the observation period are analyzed in detail. The asymmetry of the Northern and Southern hemispheres is considered, and similar and different characteristics are identified. Therefore, a more complete and accurate pattern of the structure of the morning ionosphere is obtained.

Cancer and circulatory disease risks for the largest solar particle events in the space age

In this paper we use the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR version 2022) model to predict cancer and circulatory disease risks using energy spectra representing the largest SPE's observed in the space age. Because tissue dose-rates behind shielding for large SPE's lead to low dose-rates (<0.2 Gy/h) we consider the integrated risk for several historical periods of high solar activity, including July–November, 1960 events and August–October 1989 events along with the February 1956 and August 1972 events. The galactic cosmic ray (GCR) contribution to risks is considered in predictions. Results for these largest historical events show risk of exposure induced death (REID) are mitigated to < 1.2 % with a 95 % confidence interval with passive radiation shielding of 20 g/cm2 aluminum, while larger amounts would support the application of the ALARA principle. Annual GCR risks are predicted to surpass the risks from large SPEs by ∼30 g/cm2 of aluminum shielding.

Evidence of anti-correlation between sporadic (Es) layers occurrence and solar activity observed at low latitudes over the Brazilian sector

Sporadic E-layers (Es) are thin and denser layers with high ionization observed at about 100–140 km altitude in the E region. Their formation is mainly associated with the tidal components of the diurnal and semidiurnal winds with the convergence of ions driven by the wind shear mechanism. This present work shows evidence of the relationship between the occurrence of Es layers and the solar activity at two observatories located in the Brazilian sector, the near-equatorial site of Palmas (PAL, 10.17° S; 48.33° W; dip lat. −7.31°) and the low latitude station of São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.18° S; 45.89° W; dip lat. −19.35°). The analysis was performed from December/2008 to November/2009 (a period of low solar activity) and from December/2013 to November/2014 (a period of high solar activity) using data collected from two digital ionosondes. Our results show an anti-correlation of the Es layer occurrence concerning the solar activity over both stations studied here. A more clearly observed anti-correlation at the SJC station can be attributed to a greater tidal amplitude at low latitudes. Other relevant aspects of the observations associated with the formation of the Es layers are highlighted and discussed.

Response of aurora candidates in the Chinese official histories to the space climate during 511–1876

Continuous observations at specified locations and chronicling of astronomical phenomena provide a good opportunity to study ancient space weather. There are 248 white, 125 red, and 44 blue color aurora-like descriptions, also known as aurora candidates, recorded in Chinese official historical records during the 1365-year period of 511–1876. Qualitative descriptions of the color, location, and appearance time of these candidates are quantitatively denoted. The red, white, and blue aurora candidates occurred most frequently 34% in autumn, 32% in summer, and 49% in summer, respectively. The white and red aurora as well as the overall candidates tend to appear during high solar activity periods. By contrast, the blue candidates frequently occur during low solar activity periods. Statistical results with 90% confidence intervals further show that the relationship between solar activities and overall/red (white/blue) aurora candidates is significant (insignificant). The red aurora candidates that frequently occurred in autumn during the periods of high solar activity agree well with those of low/middle latitude auroras, while the white aurora candidates might be confounded by noctilucent clouds or other atmospheric optical events, such as airglows, moon halo, etc. The study of ancient space weather/climate based on historical records shows that aurora occurrences are related to solar activities, and in particular, red auroras frequently appear in low/middle latitudes during high solar activity periods.Graphical

Scale‐Separated Dynamic Mode Decomposition and Ionospheric Forecasting

AbstractWe present a method for forecasting the foF2 and hmF2 parameters using modal decompositions from measured ionospheric electron density profiles. Our method is based on Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD), which provides a means of determining spatiotemporal modes from measurements alone. Our proposed extensions to DMD use wavelet decompositions that provide separation of a wide range of high‐intensity, transient temporal scales in the measured data. This scale separation allows for DMD models to be fit on each scale individually, and we show that together they generate a more accurate forecast of the time‐evolution of the F‐layer peak. We call this method the Scale‐Separated Dynamic Mode Decomposition (SSDMD). The approach is shown to produce stable modes that can be used as a time‐stepping model to predict the state of foF2 and hmF2 at a high time resolution. We demonstrate the SSDMD method on data sets covering periods of high and low solar activity as well as low, mid, and high latitude locations.

Solar Flux Effects on the Variations of Equatorial Electrojet (EEJ) and Counter-Electrojet (CEJ) Current across the Different Longitudinal Sectors during Low and High Solar Activity

This study examined the effect of solar flux (F10.7) and sunspots number (R) on the daily variation of equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and morning/afternoon counter electrojet (MCEJ/ACEJ) in the ionospheric E region across the eight longitudinal sectors during quiet days from January 2008 to December 2013. In particular, we focus on both minimum and maximum solar cycle of 24. For this purpose, we have collected a 6-year ground-based magnetic data from multiple stations to investigate EEJ/CEJ climatology in the Peruvian, Brazilian, West &amp; East African, Indian, Southeast Asian, Philippine, and Pacific sectors with the corresponding F10.7 and R data from satellites simultaneously. Our results reveal that the variations of monthly mean EEJ intensities were consistent with the variations of solar flux and sunspot number patterns of a cycle, further indicating that there is a significant seasonal and longitudinal dependence. During the high solar cycle period, F10.7 and R have shown a strong peak around equinoctial months, consequently, the strong daytime EEJs occurred in the Peruvian and Southeast Asian sectors followed by the Philippine regions throughout the years investigated. In those sectors, the correlation between the day Maxima EEJ and F10.7 strengths have a positive value during periods of high solar activity, and they have relatively higher values than the other sectors. A predominance of MCEJ occurrences is observed in the Brazilian (TTB), East African (AAE), and Peruvian (HUA) sectors. We have also observed the CEJ dependence on solar flux with an anti-correlation between ACEJ events and F10.7 are observed especially during a high solar cycle period.

A quantitative analysis of latitudinal variation of ionospheric total electron content and comparison with IRI-2020 over China

Many studies have investigated the spatial variations of the ionosphere, but the quantitative characteristics of the ionosphere are rarely reported. In this paper, we utilize the total electron content (TEC) data to evaluate the latitudinal gradient of the ionosphere within 10°-50° N over the China sector. It is found that the magnitudes of latitudinal gradient are significantly higher within 10°-40° N and 45°-50° N, respectively. The database of TEC from 1 November 2018 to 31 October 2022 is processed to figure out the local time, seasonal, and solar activity dependency of the latitudinal gradient. The results suggest that the gradient within 10°-40° N is higher in the daytime and during high solar activity period. They are more noticeable in the spring and autumn, and least visible in the summer. Conversely, the gradient within 45°-50° N strengthens in the nighttime and under lower solar activity, and has larger values in the summer months. Furthermore, the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2020) model is assessed in terms of the reproducibility of latitudinal gradient. The IRI-2020 basically represents the latitudinal gradient within 10°-40° N, whereas it overestimates the gradient in the low solar activity period and misses the gradient features near 45°–50° N.

Augmented Non‐LTE Parameterization of NO Infrared Radiative Cooling Rates

AbstractParameterizations of NO cooling rates in thermospheric models have not changed substantially since the work of Kockarts (1980, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL007i002p0013). We investigate three areas to augment the standard parameterization. The first focuses on cooling‐rate contributions from the first NO “hot band.” Arguments concerning the difficulty or irrelevance of parameterizing hot‐band rates are addressed and either refuted or clarified. Parameterized hot‐band cooling peaks during periods of high solar activity, contributing up to 10%–15% additional cooling, in agreement with published line‐by‐line calculations. The second focuses on collisional NO‐O quenching rates. Recent theoretical calculations predict temperature‐dependent rates similar to those seen in collisional CO2‐O quenching rates. Yet available measurements of NO‐O quenching rates do not reveal clear temperature trends. Quenching rates parameterized with and without temperature dependence produce substantially different thermospheric cooling rates. Further research is needed to resolve these discrepancies. The third involves a linearization of parameterized NO cooling rates around a prescribed state, yielding thermal damping rates for use in parameterizations of subgrid‐scale dynamics. Thermal relaxation rates peak at up to 2 days−1 near 140 km, where they are competitive with corresponding rates due to viscous thermal conduction, consistent with the imputed role of NO in regulating thermospheric climate in response to extraterrestrial energy inputs.

Investigation of Ionospheric Anomalies in Relation to Earthquakes during High and Low Solar Activity Periods in Years 2002 and 2021

Investigation of Ionospheric Anomalies in Relation to Earthquakes during High and Low Solar Activity Periods in Years 2002 and 2021

Short-term Adaptive Forecast Model for TEC over equatorial low latitude region

In today's world, satellite navigation is one of the most widely used navigational aids, which is why accurate positioning is of critical importance. The ionosphere's Total Electron Content (TEC) is a significant contributor to the positional error in signal traveling between a satellite and the earth and reduces the system's positional accuracy. The ionosphere adds an excess delay to the radio wave traversing through it, resulting in position estimation error. Since the delay is a function of the ionospheric parameter TEC, estimation of TEC can help in correcting the errors. The challenge in estimating TEC in the equatorial region is that it exhibits a non-deterministic or unpredictable characteristic due to the complex electrodynamics resulting from Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA). In addition, space weather phenomena like geomagnetic storms further disturb the ionosphere causing irregular short-term disturbances. This study explores the inherent VTEC pattern during geomagnetic storm conditions, especially during the high solar activity period, and proposes a short-term adaptive segmented regression model to forecast VTEC. The study is undertaken over six years of high solar activity period in the 24th solar cycle. The forecast model uses both linear and polynomial autoregression coefficients of recent past data. The model's performance is evaluated for extreme conditions, including the high solar activity and geomagnetic storms, which are the most challenging scenario for TEC prediction. The accuracy of the predicted output is calculated in terms of RMSE and correlation coefficient. The results were also compared with IRI 2016 model. The proposed short-term prediction model thus aims to help fill the precision required by long-term forecast models by considering near real-time nonlinear dynamics in the ionosphere.

Equivalent Current Systems of Quiet Ionosphere during the 24th Solar Cycle Derived from the Geomagnetic Records in China

External and internal equivalent current systems of solar quiet (Sq) were obtained using the spherical harmonic analysis (SHA) method with a “mirror” technique based on geomagnetic records from 46 stations in China during 2008–2019. It is the first attempt to investigate Sq currents using so many stations in the China region for a long period. On the basis of criterion Kp ≤ 2+, geomagnetic vector data were selected to represent monthly Sq variations. After calculating the equivalent currents for each month and each Lloyd season, Sq variation was analyzed in relation to the solar cycle and season. The intensities of both external and internal Sq currents were found consistent with solar activity for the same month or season, while the positions of the current foci were evidently unaffected by solar activity. The intensities of Sq currents also exhibited primary semiannual (annual) variation in the periods of high (low) solar activity. The latitude of the internal current vortex showed evident seasonal variation in Lloyd seasons with high (low) values in the D (J) season, while the external current vortex exhibited no obvious seasonal variation. The strongest correlation between external and internal foci was found in D season, and the internal current foci usually appeared 20–40 min earlier than the external ones. Owing to the complex mechanisms behind Sq variation, some findings will need further analysis in the future.

Impact of Solar Activity on the Environment in March 2022

Data from 64 stations of the global ionosonde network were used to estimate the correlation coefficient between the critical frequency of the ionosphere and its total electron content TEC during periods of high solar activity in March 2022. This coefficient in the vast majority of cases exceeded the value of 0.9, which indicates the interchangeability of these parameters in assessing the state of the environment. This assessment using the TEC parameter revealed a global positive ionization perturbation with a deviation of 30 to 100% from the month median at the end of the month, which can affect the operation of various space technological systems.

Solar modulation of cosmic proton and helium with AMS-02

We investigate the solar modulation effect with the long-time cosmic ray (CR) proton and helium spectra measured by AMS-02 on the timescale of a Bartels rotation (27 days) between May 2011 and May 2017. The time covers the negative heliospheric magnetic field polarity cycle, the polarity reversal period, and the positive polarity cycle. The precise AMS-02 data provide an excellent opportunity to improve the understanding of the time-dependent solar modulation effect. In this work, a two-dimensional solar modulation model is used to compute the propagation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The CR propagation equation is numerically solved by the public code solarprop. We find that the drift effect is suppressed during the high solar activity period for a long time but nearly recovered in the first half of 2017. The time-dependent rigidity dependence of the mean free path is critical to reproduce the observations during the polarity reversal period. We also confirm that protons and helium have the same diffusive mean free path. The future monthly AMS-02 and PAMELA data will further confirm the vital assumption about the universal mean free path for all species. The monthly antiproton data will be crucial to break the degeneracy between the diffusion and drift effect and determine the level of drift effect during different epochs.

Relationship between sunspot number and seasonal rainfall over Kerala using wavelet analysis

In this work, we investigate the periodicities of rainfall over Kerala, India, and sunspot number (1871–2016) and their possible association. Fourier and wavelet transform were performed on the rainfall and sunspot number time series to determine dominant periods. Both the data were considered on an annual scale, as well as on a seasonal scale by grouping into winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons. Fourier analysis showed short periods between 2–12 years for all the seasonal rainfall and a prominent 10.7-year period for sunspot number. Further, the wavelet spectrum of rainfall over Kerala showed the most significant periodicities around 2–10 years but with intermittent character and 8–12 years for sunspot number. The periodicity of sunspot number and rainfall estimated by Fourier analysis was in agreement with wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis gave common spectral powers with varying significance for winter and monsoon seasons around 2–3 years. Common features in the wavelet power of the two time series were visible at 8–12 years with varying significance, suggesting a relationship between them. The cross-wavelet transform, employed to study the temporal relationship, indicated high cross-power around 8–12 years, during all the seasons. The relationship between sunspot number and rainfall over Kerala during varying levels of solar activity was examined using wavelet coherence. Results showed higher coherence during the high solar activity period than during low solar activity, mainly during winter, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons. Coherence studies were also performed to check whether the influence of solar activity on rainfall completely diminished after the onset of global warming. Results showed persistence of solar influence in different seasons during the whole period of study.