High Socio-demographic Index Countries Research Articles

The burden of knee osteoarthritis worldwide, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2019, along with an analysis of cross-national inequalities.

To describe the disease burden of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) globally, regionally, and in 204 countries by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019, and to explore cross-national inequalities across SDI. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database collected data on KOA worldwide from 1990 to 2019, including prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to measure temporal trends. In addition, the inequality slope index and the health concentration index were calculated to quantify the unequal distribution of the burden of KOA across 204 countries worldwide. In 2019, the global age-standardized prevalence rate increased by 7.5% compared with 1990, and the age-standardized incidence rate increased by about 6.2%; The age-standardized YLDs rate increased by about 7.8%. In addition to the Republic of Korea and the United States of America, the disease burden of KOA has increased year by year in other countries around the world. The incidence of KOA was highest at ages 50-59, while the prevalence and rates of YLDs were highest at ages 75-84. The burden of KOA was higher in women than in men. Cross-country inequality suggests that the inequality in the burden of KOA between high SDI and low SDI countries becomes greater, and that countries with high SDI bear a disproportionately high burden. The global KOA burden has risen steadily between 1990 and 2019, and cross-national inequality gaps remain large. Targeted measures must therefore be taken to address this inequality and the increasing global KOA disease burden.

Differential trends and patterns of sociodemographic disparities in burden of mental disorders, substance use disorder and self-harm across age groups: ecological study in 204 countries using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

It is well-known that socioeconomic status is associated with mental illness at both the individual and population levels, but there is a less clear understanding of whether socioeconomic development is related to poor mental health at the country level. We aimed to investigate sociodemographic disparities in burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm by age group. Estimates of age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates for mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm from 1990 to 2019 for 204 countries were obtained. The sociodemographic index (SDI) was used to assess sociodemographic development. Associations between burden of mental health and sociodemographic development in 1990 and 2019 were investigated, and sociodemographic inequalities in burden of mental health from 1990 to 2019 by age were estimated using the concentration index. Differential trends in sociodemographic disparities in diseases across age groups were observed. For mental disorders, particularly depressive disorder and substance use disorders, DALY rates in high SDI countries were higher and increased more than those in countries with other SDI levels among individuals aged 10-24 and 25-49 years. By contrast, DALY rates for those over 50 years were lower in high SDI countries than in countries with other SDI levels between 1990 and 2019. A higher DALY rate among younger individuals accompanied a higher SDI at the country level. However, increased sociodemographic development was associated with decreased disease burden for adults aged ≥70 years. Strategies for improving mental health and strengthening mental health system should consider a broader sociocultural context.

Global, Regional, and National Burdens of Stroke in Children and Adolescents From 1990 to 2019: A Population-Based Study.

Stroke is one of the leading causes of death among children, yet evidence on stroke incidence and prognosis in this population is largely neglected worldwide. The aim of this study was to estimate the latest burden of childhood stroke, as well as trends, risk factors, and inequalities from 1990 to 2019, at the global, regional, and national levels. The Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was utilized to evaluate the prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability, years of life lost (YLLs), and average annual percentage changes in stroke among populations aged 0 to 19 years from 1990 to 2019. The global age-standardized incidence of stroke increased (average annual percentage change, 0.15% [95% uncertainty interval, 0.09%-0.21%]), while YLLs decreased substantially (average annual percentage change, -3.33% [95% uncertainty interval, -3.38% to -3.28%]) among children and adolescents between 1990 and 2019. Ischemic stroke accounted for 70% of incident cases, and intracerebral hemorrhage accounted for 63% of YLLs. Children under 5 years of age had the highest incidence of ischemic stroke, while adolescents aged 15 to 19 years had the highest incidence of hemorrhagic stroke. In 2019, low-income and middle-income countries were responsible for 84% of incident cases and 93% of YLLs due to childhood stroke. High-sociodemographic index countries had a reduction in YLLs due to stroke that was more than twice as fast as that of low-income and middle-income. Globally, the burden of childhood stroke continues to increase, especially among females, children aged <5 years, and low-sociodemographic index countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa. The burden of childhood stroke is likely undergoing a significant transition from being fatal to causing disability. Global public health policies and the deployment of health resources need to respond rapidly and actively to this shift.

The global incidence, mortality, and burden of uterine cancer in 2019 and correlation with SDI, tobacco, dietary risks, and metabolic risk factors: An ecological study.

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the sixth most common cancer among women worldwide. Since global studies are based on awareness of the incidence trend, mortality, geographical diversity, and level of social development and income of countries, this study was conducted to investigate the trend of uterine cancer (UC) in the world in 2019. Age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of UC, as well as targeted risk factors, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database 2019. Pearson correlation coefficient and SPSS 16 were used to calculate the correlation between risk factors and ASR of epidemiological indicators. Statistical significance was considered as p < 0.05. In 2019, the age-specific incidence and death rate of UC was peaking at 60-64 and 65-69 years, respectively. The highest age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 people for UC has been reported in the Northern Mariana Islands, high sociodemographic index (SDI) countries, World Bank High-Income category, Europe continent and among World Health Organization (WHO) regions were found in the European Region. The highest age-standardized death rateper 100,000 people for UC has been reported in Grenada, high SDI countries, the World Bank High-Income category, Europe continent, and among WHO regions found in the European Region. In 2019, the age-standardized DALYs rate was 53.54 per 100,000 inhabitants, of which 48.49 cases were related to years of life lost (YLLs) and 5.05 cases were related to years lived with disability. According to GBD-2019, the highest incidence, mortality, and DALY of UC are in Europe. The evidence and traces of diversity can be seen in the inequalities of UC. Race, ethnicity, economic status, level of education and awareness, co-morbidities, access, grade, and histological type of tumor are the most important causes of this inequality.

Healthy life expectancy for 202 countries up to 2030: Projections with a Bayesian model ensemble.

Healthy life expectancy (HLE) projections are required for optimising social and health service management in the future. Existing studies on the topic were usually conducted by selecting a single model for analysis. We thus aimed to use an ensembled model to project the future HLE for 202 countries/region. We obtained data on age-sex-specific HLE and the sociodemographic index (SDI) level of 202 countries from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and used a probabilistic Bayesian model comprised of 21 forecasting models to predict their HLE in 2030. In general, HLE is projected to increase in all 202 countries, with the least probability of 82.4% for women and 81.0% for men. Most of the countries with the lowest projected HLE would be located in Africa. Women in Singapore have the highest projected HLE in 2030, with a 94.5% probability of higher than 75.2 years, which is the highest HLE in 2019 across countries. Maldives, Kuwait, and China are projected to have a probability of 49.3%, 41.2% and 31.6% to be the new entries of the top ten countries with the highest HLE for females compared with 2019. Men in Singapore are projected to have the highest HLE at birth in 2030, with a 93.4% probability of higher than 75.2 years. Peru and Maldives have a probability of 48.7% and 35.3% being new top ten countries in male's HLE. The female advantage in HLE will shrink by 2030 in 117 countries, especially in most of the high SDI and European countries. HLE will likely continue to increase in most countries and regions worldwide in the future. More attention needs to be paid to combatting obesity, chronic diseases, and specific infectious diseases, especially in African and some Pacific Island countries. Although gender gaps may not be fully bridged, HLE could partially mitigate and even eliminate them through economic development and improvements in health care.

Global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to ambient PM2.5 from 1990 to 2019: An analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

Information on the spatio-temporal patterns of the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) caused by ambient ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the global level is needed to prioritize the control of ambient air pollution and prevent the burden of IHD. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 provides data on IHD attributable to ambient PM2.5. The IHD burden and mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5 were analyzed by year, age, gender, socio-demographic index (SDI) level, geographical region and country. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to estimate the temporal trends of age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) from 1990 to 2019. Globally, the ASMR and ASDR for ambient PM2.5-related IHD tended to level off generally, with EAPC of −0.03 (95% CI: −0.06, 0.12) and 0.3 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.37), respectively. In the past 30 years, there were obvious differences in the trend of burden change among different regions. A highest increased burden was estimated in low-middle SDI region (EAPC of ASMR: 3.73 [95% CI: 3.56, 3.9], EAPC of ASDR: 3.83 [95% CI: 3.64, 4.02]). In contrast, the burden in high SDI region (EAPC of ASMR: −4.48 [95% CI: −4.6, −4.35], EAPC of ASDR: −3.98 [95% CI: −4.12, −3.85]) has declined most significantly. Moreover, this burden was higher among men and older populations. EAPCs of the ASMR (R = −0.776, p < 0.001) and ASDR (R = −0.781, p < 0.001) of this burden had significant negative correlations with the countries’ SDI level. In summary, although trends in the global burden of IHD attributable to ambient PM2.5 are stabilizing, but this burden has shifted from high SDI countries to middle and low SDI countries, especially among men and elderly populations. To reduce this burden, the air pollution management prevention need to be further strengthened, especially among males, older populations, and middle and low SDI countries.

Sex Specific Global Burden of Osteoporosis in 204 Countries and Territories, from 1990 to 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study.

Osteoporosis is a highly prevalent disease with distinct sex pattern. We aimed to estimate the sex specific incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life (DALYs) years of osteoporosis between 1990 and 2019, with additional predictions from 2020 to 2034. We collected osteoporosis disease burden data from the Global Burden of Disease study covering the years 1990 through 2019 in 204 countries and territories. The data included information on the number of incident cases of osteoporosis, DALYs, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and age-standardized DALYs rates. Additionally, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis to forecast the burden of osteoporosis. The global number of incidence cases of osteoporosis, in 2019, reached 41.5 million cases. From 1990 to 2019, the low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region had the highest estimated annual percentage change in the world. Compared to males, female's ASIR and ASPR were all about 1.5 times higher than males for the same years in the same SDI regions. The projected global total number of incidence cases for osteoporosis between 2030 and 2034 is estimated to reach 263.2 million (154.4 million for females and 108.8 for males). Additionally, the burden in terms of DALYs is predicted to be 128.7 million (with 78.4 million for females and 50.3 million for males). The global burden of osteoporosis is still increasing, mainly observed in high SDI countries. Females bear a burden 1.5 times higher than males in terms of incidence and DALYs. Steps should be taken to reduce the osteoporosis burden, especially in high SDI countries.

Incidence, prevalence, and global burden of schizophrenia - data, with critical appraisal, from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019.

Schizophrenia substantially contributes to the burden of mental disorders. Schizophrenia's burden and epidemiological estimates in some countries have been published, but updated estimates of prevalence, incidence, and schizophrenia-related disability at the global level are lacking. Here, we present the data from and critically discuss the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study data, focusing on temporal changes in schizophrenia's prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally. From 1990 to 2019, schizophrenia raw prevalence (14.2 to 23.6 million), incidence (941,000 to 1.3 million), and DALYs (9.1 to 15.1 million) increased by over 65%, 37%, and 65% respectively, while age-standardized estimates remained stable globally. In countries with high socio-demographic index (SDI), both prevalence and DALYs increased, while in those with low SDI, the age-standardized incidence decreased and DALYs remained stable. The male/female ratio of burden of schizophrenia has remained stable in the overall population over the past 30 years (i.e., M/F = 1.1), yet decreasing from younger to older age groups (raw prevalence in females higher than males after age 65, with males having earlier age of onset, and females longer life expectancy). Results of this worksuggest that schizophrenia's raw prevalence, incidence, and burden have been increasing since 1990. Age-adjusted estimates did not reduce. Schizophrenia detection in low SDI countries is suboptimal, and its prevention/treatment in high SDI countries should be improved, considering its increasing prevalence. Schizophrenia sex ratio inverts throughout the lifespan, suggesting different age of onset and survival by sex. However, prevalence and burden estimates for schizophrenia are probably underestimated. GBD does not account for mortality from schizophrenia (and other mental disorders, apart from anorexia nervosa).

Current status and temporal trend in incidence, death, and burden of esophageal cancer from 1990-2019.

Esophageal cancer (EC) is one of the world's most unknown and deadly cancers. This study aimed to provide updated epidemiological indicators and the recent trend of EC by age group, gender, and geographical region in the world. Annual case data and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of epidemiological indicators of EC were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories based on the sociodemographic index (SDI). Relative difference (%), average annual percentage change (AAPC), and the male/female ratio were calculated. Data are reported in values and 95% confidence interval (CI). EC age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) decreased by 19%, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) decreased by 25%, and disability-adjusted life-years ASR (DALYs ASR) decreased by 30% from 1990 to 2019. The higher number of EC cases was in men aged 50 to 69 years and in women aged over 70. From 1990 to 2019, Middle SDI countries experienced a decline in the ASIR and ASDR of EC. The High SDI countries had an increasing ASDR trend. In World Bank High-Income countries, the ASIR of EC has remained unchanged and decreased in other regions. The Asia continent has the highest rate of incidence, mortality, and burden of EC and the highest rate of reduction. East Asia, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa respectively have the highest ASIR of EC. Central Asia has experienced the greatest decrease in the ASIR and ASDR of EC, the countries of Central Europe had a steady ASIR and High-Income North America had an increasing trend in ASIR and ASDR. The burden of EC shows a decreasing trend worldwide. Central and East Asia regions have the highest rate and the highest increase in the burden of EC. Based on great variation in the geographical distribution of epidemiological indicators of EC, investigating the reasons for this diversity requires more studies to be conducted in the field of prevention, distribution of risk factors, and implementation of screening methods with high cost-effectiveness, and access to treatment methods. The provision of regional solutions may be more effective than global strategies.

Global, regional, and national burden of cardiovascular diseases in youths and young adults aged 15–39 years in 204 countries/territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BackgroundUnderstanding the temporal trends in the burden of overall and type-specific cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in youths and young adults and its attributable risk factors is important for effective and targeted prevention strategies and measures. We aimed to provide a standardized and comprehensive estimation of the prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and mortality rate of CVDs and its associated risk factors in youths and young adults aged 15–39 years at global, regional, and national levels.MethodsWe applied Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 analytical tools to calculate the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, DALY, and mortality rate of overall and type-specific CVDs (i.e., rheumatic heart disease, ischemic heart disease, stroke, hypertensive heart disease, non-rheumatic valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, atrial fibrillation and flutter, aortic aneurysm, and endocarditis) among youths and young adults aged 15–39 years by age, sex, region, sociodemographic index and across 204 countries/territories from 1990 to 2019, and proportional DALY of CVDs attributable to associated risk factors.ResultsThe global age-standardized DALY (per 100,000 population) for CVDs in youths and young adults significantly decreased from 1257.51 (95% confidence interval 1257.03, 1257.99) in 1990 to 990.64 (990.28, 990.99) in 2019 with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of − 0.81% (− 1.04%, − 0.58%, P < 0.001), and the age-standardized mortality rate also significantly decreased from 19.83 (19.77, 19.89) to 15.12 (15.08, 15.16) with an AAPC of − 0.93% (− 1.21%, − 0.66%, P < 0.001). However, the global age-standardized incidence rate (per 100,000 population) moderately increased from 126.80 (126.65, 126.95) in 1990 to 129.85 (129.72, 129.98) in 2019 with an AAPC of 0.08% (0.00%, 0.16%, P = 0.040), and the age-standardized prevalence rate significantly increased from 1477.54 (1477.03, 1478.06) to 1645.32 (1644.86, 1645.78) with an AAPC of 0.38% (0.35%, 0.40%, P < 0.001). In terms of type-specific CVDs, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rate in rheumatic heart disease, prevalence rate in ischemic heart disease, and incidence rate in endocarditis increased from 1990 to 2019 (all P < 0.001). When stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI), the countries/territories with low and low-middle SDI had a higher burden of CVDs than the countries/territories with high and high-middle SDI. Women had a higher prevalence rate of CVDs than men, whereas men had a higher DALY and mortality rate than women. High systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were the main attributable risk factors for DALY of CVDs for all included countries and territories. Household air pollution from solid fuels was an additional attributable risk factor for DALY of CVDs in low and low-middle SDI countries compared with middle, high-middle, and high SDI countries. Compared with women, DALY for CVDs in men was more likely to be affected by almost all risk factors, especially for smoking.ConclusionsThere is a substantial global burden of CVDs in youths and young adults in 2019. The burden of overall and type-specific CVDs varied by age, sex, SDI, region, and country. CVDs in young people are largely preventable, which deserve more attention in the targeted implementation of effective primary prevention strategies and expansion of young-people’s responsive healthcare systems.

Burden of autism spectrum disorders in North Africa and Middle East from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) encompass a range of neurodevelopmental disorders that affect the patient's communication and behavior. There are some reports about the increasing prevalence of ASD in recent decades, mostly due to the improvement in diagnosis and screening status. Few studies suggested a lower prevalence of ASD in North Africa and Middle East compared to more developed regions. The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive outlook of ASD in the region. We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2019 in North Africa and Middle East, which is one of the seven super regions of the GBD categorization. In this study, we reported the epidemiologic indices, including prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for ASD in the 21 countries of the super region. We also compared these indices between the countries based on their sociodemographic index (SDI) which was calculated according to income per capita, mean education, and fertility rate. Age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of ASD in the region is 304.4 (95% uncertainty interval 251.2-366.1) per 100,000 in 2019 with less than one percentage change since 1990. Age-standardized YLDs and incidence rates were 46.4 (30.4-67.5) and 7.7 (6.3-9.3) per 100,000 in 2019. The ASPR was 2.9 times greater in males compared to females in 2019. The highest age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLD rates among the countries were seen in Iran in 2019 (370.3, 9.3, and 56.4 per 100,000, respectively). High SDI countries had higher age-standardized YLDs rates compared to the other countries of the region. In conclusion, the trends of age-standardized epidemiologic indices remained approximately steady through the years 1990-2019 in the region. Though, there was a wide discrepancy between the countries of the region. The difference of YLDs among the countries of this region is related to the SDI of the countries. Monetary and public awareness status are the SDI factors that may affect the quality of life of ASD patients in the region. This study provides valuable information for governments and health systems to implement policies for maintaining the improving trend, achieving more timely diagnosis, and bettering the supportive actions in this region.

#6798 BURDEN OF NONCOMMUNICABLE DISEASES ATTRIBUTABLE TO KIDNEY DYSFUNCTION: RESULTS FROM THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF DISEASE STUDY 2019

Abstract Background and Aims Non-communicable diseases (NCD) represent a major public health and disability burden worldwide. The UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 called for reducing premature mortality from NCD by one third through prevention and treatment by 2030. To lessen the impact of the burden of NCD, evidence-based and precise data are needed for making policy and allocating resources. However, the burden of NCD attributable to kidney dysfunction has not been systematically estimated. We aimed to estimate the global latest trend of kidney dysfunction-related NCD quantified by death and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) at global, regional, and national levels using data extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Method In GBD study 2019, kidney dysfunction is classified as level 2 risk factor for disease in metabolic risk factors hierarchy, which refers to glomerular filtration rate (GFR) &amp;lt;60 mL/min/1·73 m² or albumin-to-creatine ratio (ACR) &amp;gt;30 mg/g. The GBD study 2019 provides a systematic assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), which were estimated with Bayesian geospatial regression using data at global, regional and country level. Further analyses were performed by year, age, sex, and regions in 204 countries. To assess the change trend, we calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rate with the linear regression model. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) was used as an comprehensive indicator of national socioeconomic status. we explored the relationship between age-standardized mortality or DALY rate and SDI using Pearson's correlation analysis. Additionally, burdens in main types of NCD (including cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease) attributable to impaired kidney function were analyzed. Results From 1990 to 2019, the absolute numbers of death and DALYs increased, while the age-standardized rates of deaths and DALYs of NCD attributable to kidney dysfunction deceased worldwide. The age-standardized mortality decreased by an average of −0.35% (95% UI −0.41 to −0.29) per year, from 45.17(95% UI 37.62 to 52.33) per 100,000 population in 1990 to 40.64(95% UI 34.81 to 46.71) per 100,000 population in 2019. Over the same interval, the age-standardized DALYs rate declined from 1024.13 (95% UI 898.38 to 1154.8) per 100,000 population to 945.31 (95% UI 836.33 to 1066.77) per 100,000 population, with an EAPC of −0.25% (95% UI −0.31 to −0.19). Globally, gender imbalance existed over the past 29 years, the burden in males were higher than those in females. Besides, the burden of NCDs as a result of kidney dysfunction increased with age growth, and the elder had higher rate of death and DALYs. Geographically, the age-standardized DALYs rate attributable to kidney dysfunction increased in Central Latin America, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, Caribbean, Central Asia, Andean Latin America, Oceania, Southeast Asia. Age-standardized death and DALY rates demonstrated a higher burden in low, low-middle and middle SDI countries than those in high-middle and high SDI countries. Conclusion The result of the present work implied that the NCD as a result of kidney dysfunction has been an important contribution to the increasing burden of NCD over the past several decades, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, greater efforts are needed to carry out early screening and detection, primary care, and reasonable resource allocation to reduce mortality and the long-term burden, especially in low-to-middle Sociodemographic Index regions. Our data would provide the necessary information for priority setting and precision planning of health services to prevent and control NCD.

Burden of cardiovascular disease among elderly: based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

The burden of elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) has received increasing attention with population ageing worldwide. We reported on the global CVD burden in elderly individuals over 70, 1990-2019. Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, elderly CVD burden data were analysed. Temporal burden trends were analysed with the joinpoint model. The slope index and concentration index were used to evaluate health inequality. From 1990 to 2019, the global elderly CVD incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates generally decreased. However, the current burden remains high. The rapid growth in burden in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia is a cause for concern. Countries with a higher socio-demographic index (SDI) have generally seen a greater decrease in burden, while countries with a lower SDI have generally experienced increases or smaller declines in burden. Health inequality analysis confirmed that the burden was gradually concentrating towards countries with a low SDI. Among the different CVDs, ischaemic heart disease causes the greatest burden in elderly individuals. Most CVD burdens increase with age, but stroke and peripheral vascular disease show markedly different distributional characteristics. In addition, the burden of hypertensive heart disease shows an unusual shift towards high-SDI countries. High systolic blood pressure was consistently the leading risk factor for CVD among elderly individuals. The burden of CVD in older people remains severe and generally tends to shift to lower-SDI countries. Policymakers need to take targeted measures to reduce its harm.

Differences in the global exposure, mortality and disability of low bone mineral density between men and women: the underestimated burden in men

Talking about osteoporosis, we tend to focus on post-menopause women who are at increased risk due to estrogen depletion, while less attention has been paid to the disease in men. Currently, there is a lack of understanding about the difference of osteoporosis incidence and burden by sex. In this study, we used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to compare the difference in the prevalence and burden of low bone mineral density (LBMD) between men and women, by location, year, age and socio-demographic index. We found the prevalence of LBMD was higher in women than in men. However, the age standardized mortality rate was greatly higher in men than in women. Using disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to measure the burden, we also observed higher age standardized DALY rate in men. Using sociodemographic index (SDI) as the measure of social development level, we found that higher mortality and DALY rates were mainly seen in middle and high SDI countries. Falls were the leading cause for of deaths and disabilities in both men and women with LBMD, followed by transport injuries. Fall-related mortality was higher in women, while transport injuries caused more deaths and disabilities in men. Conclusively, more attention should be paid to osteoporosis in men, and related policies, clinical practices, and guidelines are in need to reduce the burden of LBMD and osteoporosis in men.

Global, regional, and national time trends in mortality for stroke, 1990–2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the global burden of disease 2019 study and implications for stroke prevention

Despite the fact that stroke is the second leading cause of death globally, a comprehensive and comparable assessment of mortality, and epidemiologic trends has not been conducted for most regions.We estimated the global and regional burden of stroke from 1990 to 2019 using data from the 2019 Global Study of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors. For the period between 1990 and 2019, we used an age-period-cohort model to calculate the annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), local drifts, and period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects). Meanwhile, to quantify the temporal trends in stroke age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were determined by sex, area. With the potential to uncover disparities and treatment gaps in stroke care, this approach enables the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in mortality trends. Global stroke deaths in 2019 were 6,552,725 (95% UI 5,995,200 to 7,015,139). Between 1990 and 2019, the ASMR declined globally by 36.43% (95% UI -41.65 to -31.2), with decreases in all SDI quintiles. The net drift in stroke mortality from 1990 to 2019 varied from -2.83% per year (95% confidence interval [CI]:-3.39 to -2.77) in countries with a high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) to -1.21% per year (95% CI: -1.26 to -1.16) in countries with a low SDI. During the past 30 years, favorable mortality reductions were generally found in high-SDI countries (net drift = -3.1% [95% CI: -3.4 to -2.8] per year) and high-middle SDI countries (-2.8% [-3.0 to -2.6]). However, 31 of 204 countries had either increasing trends (net drifts≥0.0%) or stagnated reductions (≥ - 0.5%) in mortality. The relative risk of mortality generally showed improving trends over time and in successively younger birth cohorts among high and high-middle SDI countries, with the exceptions of Kuwait, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Guam, RussianFederation, Lithuania, Turkey, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovin, and Bulgaria. Notwithstanding mortality from stroke has increased globally over the past 30 years, adverse period and cohort effects have been found in many countries, calling into question the adequacy of healthcare for stroke patients of all ages. These lapses have a significant impact on the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets on mortality from age 60+ and NCDs.

Alerting trends in epidemiology for calcific aortic valve disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

To assess the trends in calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) epidemiology, with an emphasis on CAVD mortality, leading risk factors, and their associations with age, period, and birth cohort. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-period-cohort model was employed to study the detailed trends of CAVD mortality and its leading risk factors. Globally, CAVD showed unsatisfactory results from 1990 to 2019, with the CAVD deaths of 127000 in 2019. CAVD mortality was substantially reduced in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries (-1.45%, 95% confidence interval (CI) [-1.61, -1.30]), mildly increased in high-middle SDI countries (0.22%, 95% CI [0.06, 0.37]), and unchanged in other SDI quintiles. There was a noticeable transition in CAVD deaths from younger to older populations globally. The CAVD mortality increased exponentially with age, and the male had higher mortality than the female before 80 years old. Favorable period (0.69, 95% CI [0.66, 0.72]) and birth effects (0.30, 95% CI [0.22, 0.43]) were mainly observed in high SDI countries, while unfavorable effects were mostly noticed in high-middle SDI countries. High systolic blood pressure was the leading risk factor of CAVD deaths globally and it showed favorable trends in high SDI regions. Although CAVD mortality reduction was observed globally, unfavorable period and cohort effects were found in many countries. Increase of mortality rate among the population≥85 years was the common challenge across all SDI quintiles, stressing the necessity to further improve health care for CAVD patients worldwide.

Global, Regional, and National Incidence and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for Urolithiasis in 195 Countries and Territories, 1990-2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Purpose: Urolithiasis is highly prevalent worldwide. The aim of this study was to report the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study on urolithiasis burden estimates grouped by gender, regions, countries or territories, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019 globally. Methods: We reported detailed estimates and temporal trends of the burden estimates of urolithiasis from 1990 to 2019 in 195 countries and territories and further evaluated the relationship between these estimates and SDI, a composite indicator of income per person, years of education, and fertility as a measurement of country/region socio-economic level. Urolithiasis incidence and disability-adjusted life years by gender, regions, countries or territories, and SDI were reported. The percentage change and estimated annual percentage change of these burden estimates were calculated to quantify temporal trends. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of urolithiasis decreased globally by 0.459% and 1.898% per year, respectively. Such a trend of ASIR was prominently due to the decline in the middle, high-middle, and high SDI countries, including Eastern Asia, high-income Eastern Europe, and high-income North America. During this period, these estimates increased in low and low-middle SDI countries, particularly in South Asia, Andean Latin America, and Western Europe. A decline in DALYs was observed in all SDI countries. An approximate positive linear association existed between the burden estimate's decreased APC and SDI level, except at the high SDI level. Both males and females showed the same trend. Conclusions: This study provides comprehensive knowledge of the burden estimate of urolithiasis. Although the burden estimates of urolithiasis showed a global decrease during the past 29 years, this progress has yet to be universal; the increasing trends were observed in countries with low and low-middle SDI countries. Research in these countries is needed and helps with the appropriate allocation of health resources for prevention, screening, and treatment strategies.

Global burden of metabolic diseases: data from Global Burden of Disease 2000-2019. A cosortium of metabolic disease

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background The growing prevalence of metabolic diseases is a major concern. We sought to examine the global trends and mortality of metabolic diseases using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods Global estimates of prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) from 2000-2019 were examined for metabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD]). For metabolic risk factors (hyperlipidemia and obesity), estimates were limited to mortality and DALYs. Death rates was compared across sex, World Health Organisation regions and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles. Age-standardised prevalence and death rates were presented per 100,000 population with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Findings From 2000 to 2019, prevalence rates increased for all metabolic diseases, with the most pronounced increase in high SDI countries. In 2019, the mean (95%UI) age-standardised prevalence per 100,000 population was estimated to be 15,023 (13,493-16,764) for NAFLD, 5,283 (4,864–5,720) for T2DM and 234 (171-313) for hypertension. The highest age-standardised death rates were observed in obesity (62·59 [39·92-89·13]; males, 66·55 [39·76-97·21]; females. 58·14 [38·53-81·39]), followed by hyperlipidemia (56·51 [41·83-73·62]; males, 67·33 [50·78-86·43]; females, 46·50 [32·70-62·38]), T2DM (18·49 [17·18-19·66], males, 67·33 [50·78-86·43]; females, 46·50 [32·70-62·38]), hypertension (15·16 [11·20-16·75]; males, 14·95 [10·32-16·75]; females, 15·05 [11·51-17·09]) and NAFLD (2·09 [1·61-2·60]; males, 2·38 [1·82-3·02]; females, 1·82 [1·41-2·27]). Mortality rates decreased over time in hyperlipidemia (-154%), hypertension (-52%) and NAFLD (-52%), but not in T2DM and obesity. The highest mortality for metabolic diseases was found in Eastern Mediterranean, and low to low-middle SDI countries. Conclusion The global prevalence of metabolic diseases has risen over the past two decades regardless of SDI. Attention is needed to address the unchanging mortality rates attributed to metabolic disease and the regional, socioeconomic, and sex disparities in mortality from metabolic disease.

The global syndemic of metabolic diseases in the young adult population: a consortium from the Global Burden of Disease 2000-2019

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background A large proportion of premature deaths are related to metabolic diseases in the young adult population. We examined the global trends and mortality of metabolic diseases using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 in individuals aged below 40 years. Methods From 2000-2019, global estimates of prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were described for metabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD]). Global estimates were limited to mortality and DALYs for risk factors (hyperlipidemia and obesity). Subgroup analyses were performed based on sex, geographical regions and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALYs were presented per 100,000 population with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Findings The prevalence for all metabolic diseases increased from 2000-2019, with the most pronounced increase in males and high SDI countries. In 2019, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in hypertension (133·88 [121·25-155·73]; males, 160·13 [138·91-180·79]; females, 119·66 [102·33-136·86]), followed by obesity (62·59 [39·92-89·13]; males, 66·55 [39·76-97·21]; females, 58·14 [38·53-81·39]), hyperlipidemia (56·51 [41·83-73·62]; males, 67·33 [50·78-86·43]; females, 46·50 [32·70-62·38]), T2DM (18·49 [17·18-19·66]; males, 19·94 [18·50-21·32]; females, 17·30 [15·62-18·70]) and NAFLD (2·09 [1·61-2·60]; males, 2·38 [1·82-3·02]; females, 1·82 [1·41-2·27]). Similarly, obesity (1932·54 [1276·61-2639·74]) had the highest age-standardised DALYs, followed by hypertension (2885·57 [2580·75-3201·05]), hyperlipidemia (1207·15 [975·07-1461·11]), T2DM (801·55 [670·58-954·43]) and NAFLD (53·33 [40·73-68·29]). Mortality rates decreased over time in hyperlipidemia (-60%), hypertension (-47%), NAFLD (-31%) and T2DM (-20%), but not in obesity (107% increase). The highest metabolic-related mortality was observed in the Eastern Mediterranean and low SDI countries. Conclusion The growing prevalence of metabolic diseases, increasing obesity-related mortality trends, and the sex-regional-socioeconomic disparities evident in young adulthood, present the concerning global burden of metabolic diseases now and in the years ahead.

COMPARISON OF TEMPORAL TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF TRACHEA, BRONCHIAL, AND LUNG CANCER

Trachea, bronchial, and lung (TBL) cancers are significant public health problems among the leading causes of death in Turkey and the world. In this study, it was aimed to determine and evaluate the temporal trends of incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of TBA cancers between 1990 and 2019. Mortality-Incidence Ratio (MIR) and Joinpoint Regression Analysis (JRA) methods were used in this study. Incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years were used as variables in the study. The temporal trends of TBL cancers were compared between the global, Turkey, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) groups. In this study, it was determined that the age-standardized global burden of TBL cancers tended to decrease between 1990 and 2019. While the burden of TBL cancers tended to decline in high SDI countries during this period, it tended to increase in low SDI countries. In Turkey, while the TBL cancers burden decreased until 2005, it increased after 2006. While the global cancer burden of TBL tended to decline in men, it tended to increase in women during this period. According to the data obtained from the research findings, the burden of TBL cancers tends to decrease globally. However, it tends to increase in low and low-middle SDI group countries. To reduce the TBL global cancer burden, it is recommended that health policies should be developed in both Turkey and international health systems for fair access to cancer treatment.