High-severity Patches Research Articles

When do contemporary wildfires restore forest structures in the Sierra Nevada?

BackgroundFollowing a century of fire suppression in western North America, managers use forest restoration treatments to reduce fuel loads and reintroduce key processes like fire. However, annual area burned by wildfire frequently outpaces the application of restoration treatments. As this trend continues under climate change, it is essential that we understand the effects of contemporary wildfires on forest ecosystems and the extent to which post-fire structures are meeting common forest restoration objectives. In this study, we used airborne lidar to evaluate fire effects across yellow pine and mixed conifer (YPMC) forests of California’s Sierra Nevada. We quantified the degree to which forest structures in first-entry burned areas (previously unburned since ~ 1900s) and unburned controls aligned with restoration targets derived from contemporary reference sites. We also identified environmental conditions that contributed to more restorative fire effects.ResultsRelative to unburned controls, structural patterns in first-entry burned areas aligned more closely with reference sites. Yet, across all burn severities, first-entry wildfires were only moderately successful at meeting targets for canopy cover (48% total area) and ladder fuels (54% total area), and achieving these targets while also producing tree clump and opening patterns aligning with reference sites was less common (16% total area). Moderate-severity patches had the highest proportion of restorative fire effects (55–64% total area), while low- and high-severity patches were either too dense or too open, respectively. Our models (and publicly-available mapped predictions) indicated a higher probability of restorative effects within 1 km of previous fires, within the mid-upper climate range of the YPMC zone, and under moderate fire intensities (~ 1–2 m flame lengths).ConclusionsFirst-entry wildfires can sometimes restore structural conditions by reducing canopy cover and ladder fuels and increasing structural heterogeneity, especially within moderate-severity patches. However, these initial fires represent just one step toward restoring dry forest ecosystems. Post-fire landscapes will require additional low- to moderate-intensity fires and/or strategic management interventions to fully restore structural conditions. In yet unburned forests, managers could prioritize mechanical treatments at lower elevations, early-season burning at mid to high elevations, and resource objective wildfires in landscapes with mosaics of past wildfires.

Thresholds and alternative states in a Neotropical dry forest in response to fire severity.

Neotropical xerophytic forest ecosystems evolved with fires that shaped their resilience to disturbance events. However, it is unknown whether forest resilience to fires persists under a new fire regime influenced by anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. We asked whether there was evidence for a fire severity threshold causing an abrupt transition from a forest to an alternative shrub thicket state in the presence of typical postfire management. We studied a heterogeneous wildfire event to assess medium-term effects (11 years) of varying fire severity in a xerophytic Caldén forest in central Argentina. We conducted vegetation surveys in patches that were exposed to low (LFS), medium (MFS), and high (HFS) fire severities but had similar prefire woody canopy cover. Satellite images were used to quantify fire severity using a delta Normalized Burning Ratio (dNBR) and to map prefire canopy cover. Postfire total woody canopy cover was higher in low and medium than high severity patches, but the understory woody component was highest in HFS patches. The density of woody plants was over three times higher under HFS than MFS and LFS due to the contribution of small woody plants to the total density. Unlike LFS and MFS patches, the small plants in HFS patches were persistent, multistem shrubs that resulted from the resprouting of top-killed Prosopis caldenia trees and, more importantly, from young shrubs that probably established after the wildfire. Our results suggest that the Caldén forest is resilient to fires of low to moderate severities but not to high-severity fires. Fire severities with dNBR values > ~600 triggered an abrupt transition to a shrub thicket state. Postfire grazing and controlled-fire treatments likely contributed to shrub dominance after high-severity wildfire. Forest to shrub thicket transitions enable recurring high-severity fire events. We propose that repeated fires combined with grazing can trap the system in a shrub thicket state. Further studies are needed to determine whether the relationships between fire and vegetation structure examined in this case study represent general mechanisms of irreversible state changes across the Caldenal forest region and whether analogous threshold relationships exist in other fire-prone woodland ecosystems.

The 2020 to 2021 California megafires and their impacts on wildlife habitat.

Fire activity during 2020 to 2021 in California, USA, was unprecedented in the modern record. More than 19,000 km2 of forest vegetation burned (10× more than the historical average), potentially affecting the habitat of 508 vertebrate species. Of the >9,000 km2 that burned at high severity, 89% occurred in large patches that exceeded historical estimates of maximum high-severity patch size. In this 2-y period, 100 vertebrate species experienced fire across >10% of their geographic range, 16 of which were species of conservation concern. These 100 species experienced high-severity fire across 5 to 14% of their ranges, underscoring potentially important changes to habitat structure. Species in this region are not adapted to high-severity megafires. Management actions, such as prescribed fires and mechanical thinning, can curb severe fire behavior and reduce the potential negative impacts of uncharacteristic fires on wildlife.

Patterns and drivers of early conifer regeneration following stand-replacing wildfire in Pacific Northwest (USA) temperate maritime forests

Tree regeneration is a critical mechanism of forest resilience to stand-replacing wildfire (i.e., where fire results in >90 % tree mortality), and post-fire regeneration is a concern worldwide as the climate becomes warmer. Although post-fire tree regeneration has been relatively well-studied in fire-prone forests across western North America, it is less understood in fire regimes characterized by large patches of stand-replacing fire at long intervals, such as the nominally infrequent, high-severity fire regimes of the western Cascades of Washington and northern Oregon, USA (northwestern Cascadia) where some of world’s highest-biomass forests reside. Recent wildfire activity (2015–2020) in northwestern Cascadia provides a unique opportunity to build understanding of the mechanisms underpinning forest resilience to fire, with implications for forest management and the myriad socio-ecological values associated with these landscapes. Here, we asked: how is post-fire conifer regeneration across northwestern Cascadia affected by pre-fire stand age, burn-patch size, and topo-climatic conditions? We established 39 1-ha long-term monitoring plots across four recent wildfires in northwestern Cascadia to measure post-fire conifer abundance and species composition. We used generalized linear models to test how rates of conifer regeneration (seedlings ha−1 yr−1 of all heights) and establishment (seedlings ha−1 yr−1 with heights >10 cm) respond to differences in pre-fire stand age/seral stage (young, mid-seral, late-seral), distance to the nearest live seed source, and post-fire topo-climate setting. In general, initial post-fire seedling densities suggest tree regeneration is abundant following stand-replacing fire in most areas across the region. For example, at 3–5 years post-fire, established seedlings were present in 100 % of plots, and regeneration and establishment levels exceeded state forest practices minimum density thresholds (470 seedlings ha−1) in 82.1 % and 64.1 % of plots, respectively. Post-fire conifer regeneration and tree species richness were greater when pre-fire stand age was older, and was more dominated by shade tolerant species than when pre-fire stand age was younger. Regeneration decreased with farther distances to the nearest live seed source, though seedlings were still moderately abundant at distances as far as 400 m from edges of high-severity patches. Conifer establishment was greater in areas characterized by cooler and wetter macrosite (e.g., greater post-fire precipitation) and microsite (e.g., greater bryophyte ground cover) conditions. By providing information on the drivers and conditions in which land managers can expect natural regeneration to occur or not, our findings are directly relevant to pre- and post-fire forest management objectives under future climate and increased fire activity in systems structured in part by infrequent and severe wildfires.

Foraging Behavior Response of Small Mammals to Different Burn Severities

Wildfires cause profound challenges for animals to overcome due to their reliance on vegetation. This study addresses the impact of three levels of forest burn severity (unburned, low, and high burn severity) on the foraging behavior of small mammals in the Pinaleño Mountains (AZ, USA) using the giving up density (GUD) experiment approach. Overall, burn severity affected the foraging behavior of small mammals that spent less time foraging in high burn severity patches. Vegetation characteristics influenced GUD differently based on the level of burn severity. Higher canopy cover was perceived as areas with a higher predation risk (higher GUD) in unburned and low burn severity patches, while cover provided by logs and shrubs decreased the GUD (increased foraging). This suggests a complicated interaction between horizontal (logs, grass, shrub cover) and vertical vegetation cover in relation to burn severity. Fires affected the foraging behavior of the small mammals but did not impact all species in the same way. Generalists, such as Peromyscus sp. and Tamias dorsalis, seemed to forage across all burn severities, while specialist species, such as tree squirrels, tended to avoid the high burn severity patches. Clarifying the complex impacts of fires on small mammals’ foraging behaviors contributes to our understanding of the intricate interactions, at micro-habitat levels, between vegetation structure and the behavioral responses of animals and it can help managers to plan actions to reduce the negative impacts of wildfires.

Spatial analysis of streamflow trends in burned watersheds across the western contiguous United States

AbstractDespite increasing magnitude and frequency of wildfire, understanding hydrological processes contributing to changes in streamflow is not well examined for the entire western contiguous United States (WCONUS). This study provides insight into whether considering spatially varying watershed characteristics, including burn severity patterns, can better explain streamflow trends at broad spatial and temporal scales. Standard geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi‐scalar (MS) GWR were benchmarked against ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to determine if spatially varying coefficients could better explain spatially varying patterns and processes of peak flow, low flow, center timing of flow, and flashiness trends in burned watersheds. In most cases, GWR reduced spatial autocorrelation and provided insight into regional factors explaining streamflow trends. Both OLS and GWR models did not find burn severity‐based metrics significant in explaining streamflow trends, except the peak flow trends model that included the spatial arrangement of high severity patches quantified using landscape shape index (LSI). Positive peak flow trends coincided with increasing LSI values in Northern California and negative peak flow trends with increasing LSI in the southern WCONUS. This research could guide regionally specific post‐fire response and inform the development of new spatial metrics that could better represent post‐fire hydrological processes.

Short-term drivers of post-fire forest regeneration in the Western Alps

BackgroundThe Mediterranean basin is currently facing major changes in fire regimes as a result of climate and land-use changes. These alterations could affect the ability of forests to recover after a fire, hence triggering degradation processes and modifying the provision of fundamental ecosystem services. Examining patterns and drivers of post-fire forest recovery, particularly for obligate seeders without specific fire-adaptive traits, thus becomes a priority for researchers and land managers. We studied the post-fire dynamics of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands affected by a mixed-severity fire in North-Western Italy, aiming to understand the impact of fire on soil properties and assess drivers, spatial distribution, and characteristics of short-term post-fire recovery.ResultsWe observed that fire did not significantly affect soil organic carbon (OC) content, while we detected significantly lower nitrogen (N) content in severely burnt sites. Regeneration density was particularly abundant in medium-severity areas, while it drastically decreased in high-severity patches. The most abundant tree species in the regeneration layer was Scots pine, followed by goat willow (Salix caprea L.), European aspen (Populus tremula L.), and, to a lesser extent, European larch (Larix decidua Mill.). Slope, fire severity, and distance from seed trees emerged as the most important drivers of post-fire forest regeneration patterns.ConclusionsOur results highlight the importance of preserving seed trees from salvage logging, even if they are damaged and have a low survival probability. Active post-fire management, such as tree planting, should be limited to large and severely burnt patches, where natural forest regeneration struggles to settle, increasing the risk of ecosystem degradation. These findings could be useful for informing land managers, helping them to enhance potential mitigation strategies in similar ecosystems and plan appropriate restoration approaches.

The outsized role of California’s largest wildfires in changing forest burn patterns and coarsening ecosystem scale

Although recent large wildfires in California forests are well publicized in media and scientific literature, their cumulative effects on forest structure and implications for forest resilience remain poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated spatial patterns of burn severity for 18 exceptionally large fires and compared their cumulative impacts to the hundreds of smaller fires that have burned across California forests in recent decades. We used a burn severity atlas for over 1,800 fires that burned in predominantly conifer forests between 1985 and 2020 and calculated landscape metrics to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of unburned refugia, low-moderate-severity, and high-severity post-fire effects. Total annual area burned, mean annual fire size, and total annual core area burned at high severity all significantly increased across the study period. Exceptionally large fires (i.e., the top 1% by size) were responsible for 58% and 42% of the cumulative area burned at high and low-moderate severities, respectively, across the study period. With their larger patch sizes, our results suggest that exceptionally large fires coarsen the landscape pattern of California’s forests, reducing their fine-scale heterogeneity which supports much of their biodiversity as well as wildfire and climate resilience. Thus far, most modern post-fire management has focused on restoring forest cover and minimizing ecotype conversion in large, high-severity patches. These large fires, however, have also provided extensive areas of low-moderate severity burns where managers could leverage the wildfire’s initial “treatment” with follow-up fuel reduction treatments to help restore finer-scale forest heterogeneity and fire resilience.

Comparing Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 for Burn Severity Mapping in Western North America

Accurate assessment of burn severity is a critical need for an improved understanding of fire behavior and ecology and effective post-fire management. Although NASA Landsat satellites have a long history of use for remotely sensed mapping of burn severity, the recently launched (2015 and 2017) European Space Agency Sentinel-2 satellite constellation offers increased temporal and spatial resolution with global coverage, combined with free data access. Evaluations of burn severity derived from Landsat and Sentinel generally show comparable results, but these studies only assessed a small number of fires with limited field data. We used 912 ground calibration plots from 26 fires that burned between 2016 and 2019 in western North America to compare Sentinel- and Landsat-derived burn severity estimates with the field-based composite burn index. We mapped burn severity using two methods; the well-established paired scene approach, in which a single pre- and post-fire scene are selected for each fire, and also a mean image compositing approach that automatically integrates multiple scenes using the cloud-based remote sensing platform Google Earth Engine. We found that Sentinel generally performed as well or better than Landsat for four spectral indices of burn severity, particularly when using atmospherically corrected Sentinel imagery. Additionally, we tested the effects of mapping burn severity at Sentinel’s finer spatial resolution (10 m) on estimates of the spatial complexity of stand-replacing fire, resulting in a 5% average reduction per-fire in area mapped as high-severity patch interiors (24,273 ha total) compared to mapping at the resolution of Landsat (30 m). These findings suggest Sentinel may improve ecological discrimination of fine-scale fire effects, but also warrant caution when comparing estimates of burn severity spatial patterns derived at different resolutions. Overall, these results indicate that burn severity mapping will benefit substantially from the integration of Sentinel imagery through increased imagery availability, and that Sentinel’s higher spatial resolution improves opportunities for examining finer-scale fire effects across ecosystems.

Simulating burn severity maps at 30 meters in two forested regions in California

Climate change is altering wildfire and vegetation regimes in California’s forested ecosystems. Present day fires are seeing an increase in high burn severity area and high severity patch size. The ability to predict future burn severity patterns could better support policy and land management decisions. Here we demonstrate a methodology to first, statistically estimate individual burn severity classes at 30 meters and second, cluster and smooth high severity patches onto a known landscape. Our goal here was not to exactly replicate observed burn severity maps, but rather to utilize observed maps as one realization of a random process dependent on climate, topography, fire weather, and fuels, to inform creation of additional realizations through our simulation technique. We developed two sets of empirical models with two different vegetation datasets to test if coarse vegetation could accurately model for burn severity. While visual acuity can be used to assess the performance of our simulation process, we also employ the Ripley’s K function to compare spatial point processes at different scales to test if the simulation is capturing an appropriate amount of clustering. We utilize FRAGSTATS to obtain high severity patch metrics to test the contiguity of our high severity simulation. Ripley’s K function helped identify the number of clustering iterations and FRAGSTATS showed how different focal window sizes affected our ability to cluster high severity patches. Improving our ability to simulate burn severity may help advance our understanding of the potential influence of land and fuels management on ecosystem-level response variables that are important for decision-makers. Simulated burn severity maps could support managing habitat and estimating risks of habitat loss, protecting infrastructure and homes, improving future wildfire emissions projections, and better mapping and planning for fuels treatment scenarios.

Use of geostatistical models to evaluate landscape and stream network controls on post‐fire stream nitrate concentrations

AbstractForested watersheds provide many ecosystem services, such as the filtration of sediment, pollutants, and nutrients, which are increasingly threatened by wildfire. For example, stream nutrient concentrations often increase following wildfire and can remain elevated for decades, making downstream waters susceptible to eutrophication. We investigated the drivers of persistent elevated stream nutrients, specifically nitrate (NO3−), in nine watersheds that were burned 16 years prior by the Hayman fire, Colorado, USA. We evaluated the ability of multiple linear regression and spatial stream network modeling approaches to predict observed concentrations of the biologically active solute NO3− and the conservative solute sodium (Na+) which serves as a partial control. Specifically, we quantified the degree to which landscape and stream network characteristics predict stream solute concentrations. Stream Na+ exhibited strong spatial autocorrelation that was primarily controlled by topography and hydrology. In contrast, stream NO3− had higher spatial variability and was inversely correlated to vegetation cover, measured as mean normalized differenced moisture index (NDMI). Spatially heterogeneous wildfire behaviour left intact forest patches interspersed with high burn severity patches dominated by shrubs and grasses which contributes to the spatial variability in stream NO3− concentrations. Post‐fire vegetation also interacts with watershed structure to influence stream NO3− patterns. For example, severely burned convergent hillslopes in headwaters positions were associated with the highest stream NO3− concentrations due to the high proportional influence of hillslope water in these locations. Our findings suggest that targeted reforestation in severely burned convergent hillslopes in headwater positions may enhance the recovery of stream NO3− concentrations to pre‐fire levels.

Using a trait-based approach to asses fire resistance in forest landscapes of the Inland Northwest, USA

ContextSeveral plant traits are associated with resistance to fire, thus fire-resistant species may give rise to more fire-resistant landscapes. However, up-scaling from plant traits to landscape- and regional-scale fire effects remains a challenge.ObjectivesWe test two hypotheses: (1) forests composed of fire-resistant species experience lower fire severity than forests composed of less fire-resistant species; and (2) wildfires affecting forests with greater fire resistance experience smaller patches of high-severity fire.MethodsWe used a predictive map of existing forest types (major tree species dominating forest composition) and a trait-based map of fire resistance. We examined large-scale spatial patterns of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery in 611 wildfires across the range of western larch in the Inland Northwest USA (1985–2014). We then applied structural equation modeling to study complex relationships between fire resistance and high-severity fire in each wildfire.ResultsForest types dominated by fire-resister species (e.g., ponderosa pine) experienced lower fire severity than forest types dominated by non-resister species such as lodgepole pine (fire-embracer) and subalpine fir (fire-avoider). We found a strong negative correlation between the fire resistance index and average values of the relative differenced normalized burn ratio, as well as an indirect relationship between fire resistance and high-severity patch size.ConclusionsThe large-scale differences in fire severity among forest types generally reflect the degree of fire resistance that fire-related traits confer to individual trees species, providing evidence that incorporating plant traits has the potential to assist in assessing fire resistance at large spatial scales.

Interactions Between Fire Refugia and Climate-Environment Conditions Determine Mesic Subalpine Forest Recovery After Large and Severe Wildfires

Infrequent stand-replacing wildfires are characteristic of mesic and/or cool conifer forests in western North America, where forest recovery within high-severity burn patch interiors can be slow, yet successful over long temporal periods (decades to centuries). Increasing fire frequency and high-severity burn patch size, under a warming climate, however, may challenge post-fire forest recovery, promoting landscape-level shifts in forest structure, composition, and distribution of non-forest patches. Crucial to a delay and/or impediment to this shift, fire refugia (i.e., remnant seed sources) may determine forest recovery trajectories and potential forest state-transitions. To examine how fire refugia attributes (i.e. extent, composition, and structure) interact with local climate and environmental conditions to determine post-fire forest recovery responses, we developed fine-grain maps of fire refugia via remote sensing and conducted field-based assessment of post-fire conifer tree establishment largely originating (i.e., dispersed) from fire refugium in the Central Cascade Range of the Pacific Northwest United States. We found that limitations on seed availability, represented by the distance2-weighted density (D2WD) of fine-grain refugia extent, largely explained post-fire tree establishment responses within our relatively mesic and cool subalpine study sites. Interactions between seed availability, climate, and environmental conditions indicated that the structural attributes of refugia (e.g., tree height) and site abiotic/biotic environmental controls (e.g., climate water deficit, canopy cover, and coarse woody debris cover) interplayed to constrain or enhance species-specific tree establishment responses. Importantly, these interactions illustrate that when seed availability is critically low for a given area, climate-environment conditions may strongly determine whether forests recover following fire(s). Toward modelling and predicting tree establishment responses and potential forest state-transitions after large stand-replacing fires(s), our study demonstrates the importance of accurately quantifying seed availability via the fine-grain extent, configuration, and attributes of remnant seed source legacies.

Mass fire behavior created by extensive tree mortality and high tree density not predicted by operational fire behavior models in the southern Sierra Nevada

Large, severe wildfires continue to burn in frequent-fire adapted forests but the mechanisms that contribute to them and their predictability are important questions. Using a combination of ground based and remotely sensed data we analyzed the behavior and patterns of the 2020 Creek Fire where drought and bark beetles had previously created substantial levels of tree mortality in the southern Sierra Nevada. We found that dead biomass and live tree densities were the most important variables predicting fire severity; high severity fire encompassed 41% of the area and the largest high severity patch (19,592 ha) comprised 13% of total area burned. Areas with the highest amounts of dead biomass and live tree densities were also positively related to high severity fire patch size indicating that larger, more homogenous conditions of this forest characteristic resulted in adverse, landscape-scale fire effects. The first two days of the Creek Fire were abnormally hot and dry but weather during the days of the greatest fire growth was largely within the normal range of variation for that time of year with one day with lower windspeeds. From September 5 to 8th the fire burned almost 50% of its entire area and fire intensity patterns inferred from remotely sensed brightness-temperature data were typical except on September 6th when heat increased towards the interior of the fire. Not only was the greatest heat concentrated away from the fire perimeter, but a significant amount of heat was still being generated within the fire perimeter from the previous day. This is a classic pattern for a mass fire and the high amount of dead biomass created from the drought and bark beetles along with high live tree densities were critical factors in developing mass fire behavior. Operational fire behavior models were not able to predict this behavior largely because they do not include post-frontal combustion and fire-atmosphere interactions. An important question regarding this mass fire is if the tree mortality event that preceded it could have been avoided or reduced or was it within the natural range of variation for these forests? We found that the mortality episode was outside of historical analogs and was exacerbated by past management decisions. The Creek Fire shows us how vulnerable of our current frequent-fire forest conditions are to suffering high tree mortality and offering fuel conditions capable of generating mass fires from which future forest recovery is questionable because of type conversion and probable reoccurring high severity fire.

Fire ecology for the 21st century: Conserving biodiversity in the age of megafire

Fire ecology for the 21st century: Conserving biodiversity in the age of megafire

Moisture and vegetation cover limit ponderosa pine regeneration in high-severity burn patches in the southwestern US

BackgroundFire regimes are shifting in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson)-dominated forests, raising concern regarding future vegetation patterns and forest resilience, particularly within high-severity burn patches. The southwestern US has recently experienced a marked increase in large fires that produce large, high-severity patch interiors, with few surviving trees. These areas could be more susceptible for forest loss and conversions to alternative vegetation types than areas closer to the forest edge with more available seed sources. To better understand forest recovery, we surveyed ponderosa pine regeneration within edge and core areas (>200 m from edge) of high-severity patches in ten fires that burned between 1996 to 2008 across Arizona and New Mexico, USA. Specifically, we compared regeneration density, height, and canopy cover in patch edge and core areas and used generalized linear models to investigate the abiotic and biotic factors that contribute to ponderosa pine seedling establishment and density.ResultsHigh-severity burn-patch edge and core plots were not significantly different in seedling density, height, or canopy cover across fires. Seedling establishment was more likely at higher-elevation mesic sites and less likely when Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii Nutt.) was more abundant. Seedling density was negatively impacted by shrub, grass, and Gambel oak cover.ConclusionsRegeneration density varied among fires but analysis of regeneration in aggregated edge and core plots showed that abundance of seed availability was not the sole factor that limited ponderosa pine regeneration, probably because of surviving tree refugia within high-severity burn patches. Furthermore, our findings emphasize that ponderosa pine regeneration in our study area was significantly impacted by xeric topographic environments and vegetation competition. Continued warm and dry conditions and increased wildfire activity may delay the natural recovery of ponderosa pine forests, underscoring the importance of restoration efforts in large, high-severity burn patches.

High-severity wildfires in temperate Australian forests have increased in extent and aggregation in recent decades.

Wildfires have increased in size and frequency in recent decades in many biomes, but have they also become more severe? This question remains under-examined despite fire severity being a critical aspect of fire regimes that indicates fire impacts on ecosystem attributes and associated post-fire recovery. We conducted a retrospective analysis of wildfires larger than 1000 ha in south-eastern Australia to examine the extent and spatial pattern of high-severity burned areas between 1987 and 2017. High-severity maps were generated from Landsat remote sensing imagery. Total and proportional high-severity burned area increased through time. The number of high-severity patches per year remained unchanged but variability in patch size increased, and patches became more aggregated and more irregular in shape. Our results confirm that wildfires in southern Australia have become more severe. This shift in fire regime may have critical consequences for ecosystem dynamics, as fire-adapted temperate forests are more likely to be burned at high severities relative to historical ranges, a trend that seems set to continue under projections of a hotter, drier climate in south-eastern Australia.

California spotted owl habitat selection in a fire-managed landscape suggests conservation benefit of restoring historical fire regimes

Wildland fire is a disturbance that shapes frequent-fire forest ecosystems and the life-histories of wildlife species that inhabit them. The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is an iconic old-forest species that evolved under a frequent-fire regime in western North America. While recent studies have focused on owl response to large, severe fire events, relatively little is known about how owls might respond to prescribed fires and wildfires managed for resource benefit. Therefore, understanding how owls use landscapes that are managed using fire may offer insight into how owls respond to fire management. We studied the breeding season nocturnal foraging habitat selection of 22 GPS-tagged California spotted owls in three national parks (Yosemite, Sequoia, and Kings Canyon) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA where natural fires have largely been allowed to burn during the past 50 years and controlled burning has been used to target additional areas. Consistent with other studies of this species, owls selected forests dominated by medium and large trees and avoided areas with smaller trees within their home ranges based on step selection analysis. Owls neither selected nor avoided forests burned by low- and moderate-severity, or high-severity fires, yet avoided larger patches of severely-burned forest (odds of selection decreased by 20% for every 10 ha increase in severely-burned patch area). These results indicated the importance of patch characteristics, suggesting that larger patches reflected either lower quality foraging habitat or increased predation risk, even in these frequent-fire landscapes where “large” severely-burned patches were small compared to those common after megafires. Additionally, selection strength increased for areas burned recently by lower-severity fire and, to a lesser extent, by older fires (largely of lower severity) as the extent of these burned areas increased within individual home ranges. These results suggested that lower-severity fire benefitted spotted owls and that these benefits declined over time. Thus, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that California spotted owls are adapted to historical frequent-fire regimes of overall lower-severity with small high-severity patches. We hypothesize that fire management, coupled with medium- and large-tree retention, likely maintains high quality spotted owl habitat and may contribute to the observed owl population stability in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, compared to declining populations on three national forests. Finally, our results indicated that fire management, as practiced in these national parks, could benefit owl conservation elsewhere if challenges to the reintroduction of frequent-fire regimes can be overcome.

Projected Climate-Fire Interactions Drive Forest to Shrubland Transition on an Arizona Sky Island

Climate stressors on forests of the American Southwest are shifting species distributions across spatial scales, lengthening potential fire seasons, and increasing the incidence of drought and insect-related die-off. A legacy of fire exclusion in forests once adapted to frequent surface fires is exacerbating these changes. Reducing stand densities and surface fuel loads has been proposed as a means of moderating fire behavior while reducing competition for water, but it is not established whether thinning treatments and restoration of surface fire regimes will be enough to offset the multiple manifestations of a changing climate. We examined the potential for prescribed fuel treatments and restoration of historical fire frequencies to mitigate the effects of climate on forest species distributions, composition, total biomass, and fire severity. We used an ecosystem process model to simulate the effects of projected climate, fire, and active management interactions along an ecological gradient of shrublands, woodlands, and forests on a mountain range in Arizona, USA. We used historical climate conditions as a baseline to compare results from projected climate, for the period 2005-2055, with and without fire, and with no fuel treatments, a single-entry fuel treatment, and a second fuel treatment after twenty years. Simulated desert grassland and shrub communities remained compositionally stable and maintained or expanded their extents, while woodland and forest communities lost basal area and total biomass and receded to the coolest and wettest aspects and drainages, even without fire. Initial fuel treatments reduced the extent and relative mortality of high-severity patches for the first two decades and secondary treatments at simulation year 20 extended these effects for the remaining 30-years of simulation. Immediate and future fuel treatments showed potential to mitigate the severity of fire effects under projected conditions and slow the transition from forest to shrubland in some vegetation types; however, a reduction in basal area and spatial extent of some forest species occurred regardless of management actions. Results are being used to inform local land managers and partners of potential landscape changes resulting from climate alone, from climate-fire interactions, and to coordinate active management of fuels across ownerships.

Simulated Increases in Fire Activity Reinforce Shrub Conversion in a Southwestern US Forest

Fire exclusion in historically frequent-fire forests of the southwestern United States has altered forest structure and increased the probability of high-severity fire. Warmer and drier conditions, coupled with dispersal distance limitations, are impeding tree seedling establishment and survival following high-severity fire. High-severity patches are commonly dominated by non-forest vegetation, a state that can be reinforced by subsequent fire events. We sought to determine the influence of fire probability on post-fire vegetation development in a severely burned landscape in New Mexico, USA. We used LANDIS-II to simulate three fire probability scenarios—historical fire probability, contemporary fire probability, and the mean of the two—with contemporary climate. As fire probability increased, the mean size of the largest fires and the mean landscape fire severity increased. These changes in fire characteristics resulted in decreased total aboveground biomass and photosynthetic capacity on the landscape after 50 years. Additionally, the distribution of individual species biomass shifted, with early successional species, especially those that resprout after fire, increasing as a fraction of total biomass with increasing fire occurrence. Counter to empirical data, our simulations did not show a conifer establishment limitation, suggesting a source of uncertainty that will need to be addressed to improve projections of forest dynamics under future climate. Even without limited conifer regeneration, continued increases in fire frequency are likely to favor resprouting species and result in a loss of forest biomass and ecosystem productivity in this southwestern forest landscape.