Higher Risk Of Stroke Research Articles

Prediction models for ischemic stroke and bleeding in dialysis patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Patients with kidney failure on maintenance dialysis have a high stroke and bleeding risk. Multivariable prediction models can be used to estimate the risk of ischemic stroke and bleeding. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to determine the performance of the existing models in patients on dialysis. Methods MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched, from inception through January 12, 2024, for studies of prediction models for stroke or bleeding, derived or validated in dialysis cohorts. Discrimination measures for models with c-statistic data from ≥ 3 cohorts were pooled by random effects meta-analysis and a 95% prediction interval (PI) was calculated. Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. The review was conducted according to the PRISMA statement and the CHARMS checklist. Results Eight studies were included in this systematic review. All the included studies validated pre-existing models that were derived in cohorts from the general population. None of the identified studies reported the development of a new dialysis specific prediction model for stroke, while dialysis specific risk scores for bleeding were proposed by two studies. In meta-analysis of c-statistics, the CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, ATRIA, HEMORR(2)HAGES and HAS-BLED scores showed very poor discriminative ability in the dialysis population. Six of the eight included studies were at low or unclear risk of bias and certainty of evidence was moderate. Conclusions The existing prediction models for stroke and bleeding have very poor performance in the dialysis population. New dialysis-specific risk scores should be developed to guide clinical decision making in these patients.

Development and Validation of a Flow-Dependent Endothelialized 3D Model of Intracranial Atherosclerotic Disease.

Intracranial atherosclerotic disease (ICAD) is a major cause of stroke globally, with mechanisms presumed to be shared with atherosclerosis in other vascular regions. Due to the scarcity of relevant animal models, testing biological hypotheses specific to ICAD is challenging. We developed a workflow to create patient-specific models of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) from neuroimaging studies, such as CT angiography. These models, which can be endothelialized with human endothelial cells and subjected to flow forces, provide a reproducible ICAD model. Using imaging from the SAMMPRIS clinical trial, we validated this novel model. Computational fluid dynamics flow velocities correlated strongly with particle-derived flow, regardless of stenosis degree. Post-stenotic flow disruption varied with stenosis severity. Single-cell RNA-seq identified flow-dependent endothelial gene expression and specific endothelial subclusters in diseased MCA segments, including upregulated genes linked to atherosclerosis. Confocal microscopy revealed flow-dependent changes in endothelial cell proliferation and morphology in vessel segments related to stenosis. This platform, rooted in the specific anatomy of cerebral circulation, enables detailed modeling of ICAD lesions and pathways. Given the high stroke risk associated with ICAD and the lack of effective treatments, these experimental models are crucial for developing new ICAD-related stroke therapies.

Association between platelet-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and future stroke risk: a national cohort study based on CHARLS

BackgroundAccording to recent research, there is a considerable correlation between the severity of coronary artery disease and the platelet-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (PHR), which suggests that PHR is a potentially valuable inflammatory biomarker. However, the body of current research offers insufficiently strong evidence to clarify the connection between PHR and the incidence of stroke. Therefore, this study aims to elucidate any potential associations between PHR and stroke risk.MethodsThis study employed data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) covering the period from 2011 to 2018. It included 5,872 participants who did not have a history of stroke in 2011. These patients were separated into four groups according to their baseline PHR quartiles. The main goal of the study was to focus on stroke outcomes. Stroke was defined as an occurrence of a cerebrovascular accident confirmed by a physician. We employed Cox proportional hazards regression models to investigate the association between PHR and the likelihood of experiencing a stroke. Furthermore, we conducted restricted cubic spline regression analysis and subgroup analysis.ResultsThe average follow-up period was 77.5 months, during which 390 participants experienced a stroke. In comparison to the lowest quartile group, participants in the highest quartile of PHR had a 49% increased risk of stroke (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.13–1.96, p = 0.004). The adjusted multivariable Cox regression analysis maintained the statistical significance of this association (aHR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06–1.90, p = 0.019). After adjustment, a positive linear relationship between stroke risk and PHR was identified through restricted cubic spline regression analysis (nonlinear p > 0.05). Additionally, the impact of stroke was consistent across a variety of subgroups, as evidenced by subgroup analysis.ConclusionOur study indicates that higher PHR levels are significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke and that these levels can be used to identify groups that are at high risk of stroke.

Abstract 4120534: Long-Term Outcomes After Medication, Coronary Stenting or Surgery for Men and Women With Three-Vessel Coronary Disease

Background: Sex is a vital prognostic factor in patients with coronary heart disease, however, the data on sex-treatment interaction among real-world patients with three-vessel coronary disease (TVD) are limited. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the long-term outcomes after medication therapy (MT), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG) according to sex in patients with TVD. Methods: Consecutive 8943 patients with TVD [2421 (27.1%) MT, 3825 (42.8%) PCI, and 2697 (30.2%) CABG] were enrolled from April 2004 to February 2011 at Fu Wai Hospital. The primary endpoint was cardiac death and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or repeat revascularization. The secondary endpoints were the components of MACCE. Results: Among 8943 TVD patients, 7122 (79.6%) were men and 1821 (20.4%) were women. While the number of women undergoing PCI was comparable to men, women opted for more MT and fewer CABG (Figure 1). During a median 6.6-year follow-up, CABG showed a lower risk of MACCE compared to PCI, with a similar treatment effect for women and men (female HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.97; male HR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.55 to 0.69; p for interaction=0.222) (Figure 2 and Figure 3). CABG also showed lower risks of all-cause death, MI, and repeat revascularization, and a higher risk of stroke, which had no significant interaction with sex. PCI, compared to MT, was associated with lower risks of MACCE, all-cause death, and stroke and a higher risk of MI and repeat revascularization, without significant gender disparities. CABG versus MT was associated with lower risks of MACCE, all-cause death, MI and repeat revascularization and a higher risk of stroke, with a similar treatment effect for female and male patients (Figure 3). Conclusion: There was no significant sex differences in the risks of long-term outcomes of PCI vs. CABG, PCI vs. MT, and CABG vs. MT in real-world TVD patients.

Abstract 4136632: Impact of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation on Long-term Clinical Outcomes in Patients after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

Background: The impact of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) on long-term clinical outcomes has not been adequately evaluated yet. Methods: Among consecutive 14927 patients who underwent their first coronary revascularization in the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG Registry Cohort-3 (2011-2013), the study population consisted of 1483 patients who underwent CABG after excluding those with prior AF. POAF was defined as newly documented AF during hospitalization for CABG. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death after discharge. The median clinical follow-up was 5.7 (interquartile range, 4.4-6.6) years. Results: POAF was observed in 337 patients (23%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that age >=75 years (odds ratio [OR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-2.10; P<0.001) and cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) use (OR, 1.40; 95%CI, 1.09-1.79; P=0.01) were independent predictors of POAF. Of the 1400 patients discharged alive among the study population, the POAF group included more older patients, patients with prior stroke, and patients prescribed beta-blockers and oral anticoagulants than the non-POAF group. The cumulative 5-year incidence of all-cause death was 15.9% in the POAF group and 13.0% in the non-POAF group (Log-rank P=0.38). After adjusting for confounders, the adjusted risk for all-cause death was almost neutral (adjusted HR, 0.96; 95%CI, 0.70-1.31; P=0.81). The cumulative 5-year incidence of stroke was significantly higher in the POAF group than in the non-POAF group (8.0% versus 4.2%; Log-rank P=0.02), and the adjusted risk of stroke in the POAF group relative to the non-POAF group tended to be higher (adjusted HR: 1.58, 95%CI, 0.99-2.53; P=0.057). However, the cumulative 5-year incidence of major bleeding was significantly higher in the POAF group than in the non-POAF group (14.6% versus 10.7%; Log-rank P=0.01). Even after adjusting for confounders, the excess risk of major bleeding in the POAF group was significant (adjusted HR, 1.42; 95%CI, 1.01-2.00; P=0.041). Conclusions: Advanced age and CPB use were associated with POAF occurrence. POAF was not associated with long-term mortality after discharge. However, it tended to be associated with a higher risk for stroke and was associated with a significantly higher risk for major bleeding. Further study would be needed to clarify the appropriate management of POAF after CABG.

Abstract 4120105: Meta-Analysis of Outcomes in Patients Developing Acute Kidney Injury Following Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair for Stanford Type B Aortic Dissection

Background and Aims: Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) is warranted in patients with Stanford Type-B aortic dissection who are at an increased risk of aneurysm rupture and enlargement. While studies indicate that development of post-operative acute kidney injury (AKI) (with incidence rate varying from 1.5% to 34%) may potentially worsen outcomes and increased mortality, the specific role of AKI in the postoperative period for patients undergoing TEVAR for Stanford Type-B aortic dissection remains understudied and unclear. Our meta-analysis aims to contribute valuable insights into this aspect. Methods: A comprehensive literature search spanning major bibliographic databases was conducted to retrieve studies comparing outcomes in Stanford Type-B aortic dissection patients undergoing TEVAR who developed AKI postoperatively versus those who did not. Our outcomes of interest included the risk of in-hospital mortality, stroke, and requirement for dialysis. Relative risks (RRs) were pooled from all studies using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models in the ‘meta’ package of R software (Version: 2023.12.1+402). Statistical significance was set at p <0.05. Results: Three studies were included with 1091 patients (234 in the AKI group and 857 in the non-AKI group). The development of AKI was associated with a significantly higher risk of in-hospital mortality [RR: 5.31; 95% CI: 3.10, 9.08; p<0.0001; I 2 =0%], a higher risk of stroke [RR: 2.33; 95% CI: 1.30, 4.17; p=0.0046; I 2 =0%], and an increased risk of requiring dialysis [RR: 18.43; 95% CI: 3.35, 101.46; p=0.0008; I 2 =0%] (Figure 1). No heterogeneity was observed between the studies (Figure 1 and 2). Conclusion: The development of AKI after TEVAR in patients with Stanford Type-B aortic dissection is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, stroke, and dialysis requirement. Hence, further research into early recognition of the risk factors associated with the development of AKI after TEVAR is warranted, along with determining its effects in longer follow-up durations.

Forecasting the Worldwide Impact of Stroke for individuals aged 45 and above.

We aimed to assess the global impact of stroke in people aged 45 years and older between 1990 and 2030, focusing on morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Generalized additive models (GAM) were used to project disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and stroke burden was investigated, and regional differences were assessed by Mann U test-Whitney. The overall age-standardized stroke incidence rate (ASIR) among adults aged 45 years and older is projected to increase from 2020 to 2030, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 1.29. Conversely, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) in EAPC is expected to decrease by -1.48, and the age-standardized DALY in EAPC is expected to decrease by -1.66. By 2030, men are expected to have higher ASIR (181.81) and ASDR (87.31) than women (ASIR: 151.85, ASDR: 65.20). Regional differences are large. East Asia is expected to have the highest ASIR in 2030 (265.55). Age estimates show that older age groups, particularly those aged 75 to 79, are at higher risk of stroke. In addition, there is a significant inverse relationship between SDI and stroke severity, with areas with higher SDI tending to have lower morbidity, mortality, and DALYs. From 1990 to 2030, ASIR is expected to upgrade, especially in East Asia and regions with lower SDI. Men will bear a greater burden than women.

Abstract 4129945: Risk of stroke for AMI treated with temporary mechanical circulatory support: ten-year data from National Inpatient Sample

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the risk of stroke for temporary mechanical circulatory support (tMCS) device treated acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Background: Data are limited regarding risk of stroke for temporary mechanical circulatory support (tMCS) device treated acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: The national inpatient sample database was analyzed to identify adults who were hospitalized for AMI between 2012 and 2021, hospitalizations were grouped based on the temporary mechanical circulatory support device. Study design: In the final cohort, there are 8,272,163 (96.0%) weighted hospitalizations treated without tMCS, 265,870 (3.1%) with Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump (IABP) alone, 59,240 (0.7%) with Impella alone, and 16,225 (0.2%) with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) used during the hospitalization. Results: The overall stroke rates for patients who treated without tMCS, IABP alone, Impella alone, and ECMO group were 3.41%, 3.46%, 4.51%, and 13.34% respectively. Specifically, the rates of ischemic stroke for these groups were 2.95%, 3.12%, 3.96% and 10.11% respectively. The rates for hemorrhagic stroke were 0.68%, 0.55%, 0.81%, and 4.90% for the same groups. In the stepwise forward Cox regression analysis, the adjusted OR (aOR) of ECMO use for overall stroke was 3.04 (95%CI [2.66-3.48]), followed by Impella only use with an aOR of 1.79 (95%CI [1.61-2.00]), and atrial fibrillation (aOR 1.34, 95%CI [1.31-1.38]). The subgroup analysis revealed that hospitalization with age younger than 50 years old, those without hypertension, and those presented with ST-elevation myocardial infarction are at particularly high risk of stroke for ECMO treated AMI. Conclusion: This ten years AMI hospitalizations analysis revealed that ECMO and Impella treatment associated with increased risk of both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Particularly for those younger than 50, those without hypertension, and those presented with ST-elevation myocardial infarction. However, treatment with IABP alone does not increase the risk of stroke.

Left bundle branch area pacing versus endocardial resynchronization in patients with heart failure.

Left bundle branch area pacing (LBBAP) and endocardial resynchronization (Endo-CRT) are alternatives to biventricular pacing for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). To compare the outcomes of LBBAP versus Endo-CRT using conventional pacing leads. Patients with heart failure (HF) undergoing CRT with LBBAP or Endo-CRT were included. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of HF-related hospitalization and all-cause mortality. The primary safety outcome was any procedure-related complication. Secondary outcomes included procedural characteristics, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic parameters. A total of 223 patients (LBBAP n = 197, Endo-CRT n = 26; mean age 69 ± 10.3 years, 32.3% female) were included. Patients in the LBBAP group had lower NYHA class, shorter preprocedural QRS durations (161 [142-183] vs. 180 [170-203] msec, p < .001), and a lower preprocedural spironolactone use (57.4% vs. 84.6%, p = .009) than patients in the Endo-CRT group. Fluoroscopy time was significantly shorter in patients undergoing LBBAP (11.4 [7.2-20] vs. 23 [14.2-34.5] min; p < .001). There was no significant difference in the primary efficacy outcome between both groups (Cox proportional HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.635-2.31; p = .56). During follow-up, patients undergoing LBBAP had a lower incidence of stroke than patients in the Endo-CRT group (0% vs. 11.5%, p = .001). Postprocedural LVEF (35% [25-45] vs. 40% [20-55]; p = .307) and change in LVEF (7% [0-20] vs. 11% [2-18]; p = .384) were similar between the LBBAP and the Endo-CRT groups, respectively. LBBAP and Endo-CRT using conventional leads are associated with similar mortality and HF-related hospitalization, as well as improvements in LVEF. Endo-CRT is associated with longer fluoroscopy times and a higher risk of stroke.

Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Very High Risk for Stroke and Adverse Events—Insights from the Observational ARENA Study

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cause of stroke. An individual risk estimation remains challenging, as AF patients with and without cerebrovascular event (CVE) may differ in yet unknown factors beyond those covered by the CHA2DS2-VASc score. We aimed to identify differences between AF patients with and without CVE with regard to AF characteristics and treatment, vascular risk factors and comorbidities, prognosis and outcome. Methods: We analyzed patients included in the Atrial Fibrillation Rhine-Neckar Region (ARENA) Project, an observational cohort study of patients with AF. Patients were recruited by their general practitioner or during a hospital stay and were divided into two groups for the present analysis: patients with acute CVE at baseline and/or history of CVE versus patients without CVE. Follow-up at 1 year was conducted via phone call. Results: Of 2061 included patients (60.6% male), 292 (14.2%) belonged to the CVE group. Patients in the CVE group were older (mean age 74.6 versus 71.7 years; p &lt; 0.001) and had a higher CHA2DS2-VASc score at baseline (5.3 versus 3.3 points; p &lt; 0.001) based on the preceding CVE. Moreover, patients with either acute or chronic CVE had a larger left atrium (median diameter 47/46 mm versus 44 mm; p = 0.001). Patients with acute CVE had structural heart diseases (p &lt; 0.001) less frequently than patients with previous or without CVE. Mortality at 1 year (HR 1.95; 95%-CI 1.37–2.78) was more frequent in the CVE group (p &lt; 0.001). During 1-year of follow-up, stroke occurred more frequently in survivors with CVE (2.9% versus 0%; p &lt; 0.001). Conclusions: AF patients with CVE have a significantly worse prognosis than AF patients without CVE. Atrial structural remodeling, underlying cardiovascular disease, stroke-induced heart injury and further unidentified factors may account for this finding. Characterization of AF patients including echocardiography to detect atrial structural remodeling may be helpful in risk stratification beyond classical scores.

Clinical characteristic and long-term prognosis in vertebrobasilar stroke

Vertebrobasilar stroke (VBS) is 20-25% of the ischemic stroke structure, however, the clinical features and long-term outcome of the disease studied poorly in the domestic population.The aim of the study was to analyze the clinical features of the acute period of VBS and calculate the 5-year risk of cardiovascular events and death.Material and methods. We analyzed the data of 1569 patients with ischemic stroke. There were analyses of patient complaints, neurological status, brain imaging, NIHSS and POST-NIHSS. The logistic regression model was built for an integral assessment of predictors of five-year mortality.Results. 386 (25%) patients with VBS were diagnosed and 147 (9,4%) cases of VBS were diagnosed with CT-scan. The top complaints were dizziness, unsteadiness and blurred speech. 72 (48,9%) patients were low neurological deficit, the most common neurological syndromes were ataxia, prosoparesis, hemiparesis, dysarthria and nystagmus. More than 60% of patients had an unspecified stroke subtype, despite the diagnostic search performed. The 19,4% patients were recurrent ischemic stroke and 37,2% patients died. Predictors of mortality were age and the presence of cardiovascular disease. Conclusion. Patients with VBS are characterized by a predominantly nonspecific clinical picture of the disease, in half of the cases a minor neurological deficit, insufficient information content of the initial computed tomography of the brain, a low frequency of intravenous thrombolysis, difficulties in determining the cause of stroke and a high risk of recurrent stroke and death within 5 years.

Cerebrovascular reactivity and response times describe recent ischemic symptomatology in patients with moyamoya

Abstract Moyamoya is a non-atherosclerotic intracranial steno-occlusive condition that places patients at high risk for ischemic stroke. Randomized trials of surgical revascularization demonstrating efficacy in ischemic moyamoya have not been performed, and as such, biomarkers of parenchymal hemodynamic impairment are needed to assist with triage and evaluate post-surgical response. In this prospective study, we test the hypothesis that parenchymal cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) metrics in response to a fixed-inspired 5% carbon dioxide challenge correlate with recent focal ischemic symptoms. Hypercapnic reactivity blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) MRI (echo time=35ms; spatial resolution=3.5x3.5x3.5mm) and catheter angiography assessments of cortical reserve capacity and vascular patency, respectively, in moyamoya disease and syndromic participants (n=73) were performed in sequence. Cerebrovascular reactivity uncorrected for response time (CVRRAW) was quantified, and time regression analyses were applied to quantify maximum cerebrovascular reactivity (CVRMAX) and cerebrovascular reactivity response time (CVRDELAY). Symptomatology was categorized by a stroke neurologist by hemisphere: symptomatic (lateralizing ischemic symptoms &amp;lt; 6 months) or asymptomatic (no ischemic symptom history). Values are presented as median [interquartile range]; logistic regression assessed the association of cerebrovascular reactivity metrics with symptoms, controlling for age and sex. A total of 109 hemispheres, including 39 symptomatic and 70 asymptomatic hemispheres, met inclusion criteria. Symptomatic hemispheres displayed reduced CVRRAW (p&amp;lt;0.01) (symptomatic=0.45 [0.28-0.70] z-statistic/ΔEtCO2 vs. asymptomatic=0.67 [0.44-0.98] z-statistic/ΔEtCO2), lengthened CVRDELAY (p&amp;lt;0.001) (symptomatic=47.6 [37.7-57.0] seconds vs. asymptomatic=37.7 [30.4-46.4] seconds), and reduced CVRMAX (p=0.037) (symptomatic=1.31 [0.99-1.94] z-statistic/ΔEtCO2 vs. asymptomatic=1.64 [1.29-2.12] z-statistic/ΔEtCO2). CVRDELAY (p&amp;lt;0.001) was found to be significantly related to age in asymptomatic hemispheres (0.33-unit increase/year). Of assessed measures, the receiver operating characteristic curves suggest that CVRDELAY is associated most closely with recent ischemic symptoms (p&amp;lt;0.001). Findings support that cerebrovascular reactivity metrics are uniquely altered in hemispheres with recent ischemic symptoms, further motivating their utilization as biomarkers of ischemic symptomatology and potential treatment efficacy in moyamoya disease and syndrome.

Stroke Prevention and Treatment for Youth with Sickle Cell Anemia: Current Practice and Challenges and Promises for the Future.

Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is an autosomal recessive inherited hemoglobinopathy that results in a high risk of stroke. SCA primarily affects an underserved minority population of children who are frequently not receiving effective, multi-disciplinary, preventative care. This article reviews primary and secondary stroke prevention and treatment for children with SCA for the general adult and pediatric neurologist, who may play an important role in providing critical neurologic evaluation and care to these children. Primary stroke prevention is efficacious at reducing ischemic stroke risk, but it is not consistently implemented into clinical practice in the United States, resulting in these children remaining at high risk. Acute symptomatic stroke management requires neurology involvement and emergent transfusion to limit ischemia. Furthermore, while chronic transfusion therapy is a proven secondary preventative modality for those with prior symptomatic or silent cerebral infarcts, it carries significant burden. Newer therapies (e.g., stem cell therapies and voxelotor) deserve further study as they may hold promise in reducing stroke risk and treatment burden. Effective primary and secondary stroke prevention and treatment remain a challenge. Informing and engaging neurology providers to recognize and provide critical neurologic evaluation and treatment has potential to close care gaps.

Assessing the efficacy of an educational video on stroke knowledge in Lebanon: a single-arm interventional study

ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the public’s knowledge of stroke before and after viewing an educational video about stroke risk factors, preventive measures, and alarming signs.MethodsA single-arm interventional study was conducted in Lebanon using a 3-minute video-based education about stroke. A pre- and post-structured questionnaire compared the level of knowledge about stroke.ResultsThe study included 685 participants. Knowledge of stroke, risk factors, warning signs, treatment, and preventive measures significantly increased post-educational video sessions. A higher baseline knowledge score was associated with a family history of stroke (Beta = 1.76) and being a healthcare professional (Beta = 3.35). Participants between 25 and 34 years (Beta=-1.39) and those with a high risk of stroke (Beta=-1.03) were significantly associated with a lower knowledge score.ConclusionThis study demonstrated the effectiveness of a video-based educational tool to raise awareness about stroke. Short, targeted audio-visual resources using lay language can convey health education messages and influence behavioral changes. The community can benefit from a large-scale educational campaign that targets different socio-economic statuses to enhance knowledge of stroke and save lives.

Income level is associated with differences in primary and secondary stroke prevention in China

IntroductionThe aim of this study was to assess differences in the effects of income level on the primary and secondary prevention of stroke in the Chinese population.Material and methodsThis was a population-based study using data from a China Kadoorie Biobank survey that began in 2004 in 10 geographical regions. Community residents (n = 512,715) aged 30–79 years were recruited. Stroke was determined by the self-reporting of a doctor’s diagnosis, and participants with a high risk of stroke were identified using the model developed in the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China study.ResultsThe final numbers of people included in this study were 8,884 with stroke and 218,972 with a high risk of stroke. The participants’ income level was positively associated with high levels of physical activity and the consumption of a healthy diet, but negatively associated with the control of alcohol consumption (all p &lt; 0.05). In addition, positive associations were observed between the control of smoking and the use of antiplatelet and antihypertensive medication for primary prevention (all p &lt; 0.05), but there was a negative association with the control of blood pressure (p &lt; 0.001).ConclusionsLow-income individuals were less likely to control smoking and their diet and use preventive medications, while high-income individuals were less likely to control their alcohol consumption and blood pressure. Moreover, medication use was low for both primary and secondary prevention in high-income individuals.

Cost differences between oral anticoagulation therapies in atrial fibrillation patients

Abstract Background Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have largely replaced warfarin as the primary choice of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. This study uses a nationwide registry data set to compare the health and social care costs of AF patients using different OAC therapies. We studied how these costs were distributed among different care services in the year following AF onset and how the costs develop in time before and after AF diagnosis. Methods This study is a part of the Finnish AntiCoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation (FinACAF) research project, which includes data on patients with AF, combining registry data on primary and secondary care services as well as social services, drug purchases and laboratory data. We included all new-onset AF patients from 2011 to 2017 in Finland with an indication for OAC treatment. Patients were divided based on their first OAC purchase. Time in therapeutic range (TTR) values were assessed for warfarin patients, and they were divided into quartiles based on their TTR value. Standardized costs were determined for different health and social care contacts, accounting for hospital care, primary and ambulatory care, and long-term care. Drug costs were acquired from the Reimbursement for Prescription Medicines registry. Results A total of 130,745 patients (66,610 on warfarin, 32,996 on DOACs) were included. First-year total costs after onset of AF were €10,412 for rivaroxaban (n=13,320), €12,631 for apixaban (n=11,886), €10,706 for dabigatran (n=7,514) and €10,689 for edoxaban (n=366). Costs of care clustered near the diagnosis of AF (Figure 1). Costs for warfarin patients increased inversely with TTR, ranging from €10,945 in the highest TTR quartile (TTR over 82%) to €21,387 in the lowest (TTR under 57%). Average first-year costs for warfarin patients were €15,689, higher than DOAC patients by €3,058-€5,277 (Figure 2). Patients without any OAC had the highest first-year costs, €17,898. Patients with high risk of stroke had higher total costs both in patients using DOACS (€7,271 for patients with a CHA2DS2VA score of 1 vs €11,947 for patients with CHA2DS2VA 2+) and warfarin (€9,933 for CHA2DS2VA 1 vs €16,354 for CHA2DS2VA 2+). Drug costs averaged €1,541 for rivaroxaban, €1,659 for apixaban, €1,495 for dabigatran and €1,540 for edoxaban, and €986 warfarin users. Hospital care was the largest cost driver with 64% of total costs across the whole cohort, followed by primary care (19%), drug purchases (7%), social service costs (6%) and reimbursements for travel and private care (4%). Conclusions DOACs were superior to warfarin in a broad range of social and healthcare cost measures despite higher drug expenses. Patients on warfarin with low TTR and patients without any OAC had the highest cost of care.

Comparing the utility of 3D vs 2D left atrial volumes by echocardiography to predict stroke in the general population

Abstract Background Left atrial (LA) volume dilatation is associated with stroke in the general population. Two-dimensional echocardiography (2DE) is commonly used to measure LA size but is known to underestimate LA volumes compared to three-dimensional echocardiography (3DE). It is unknown whether this difference has clinical significance. Purpose We hypothesized that LA volumes by 3DE are more closely associated with stroke risk than 2DE in the general population. Methods We included 2,085 participants from a longitudinal cohort study from the general population who underwent 3DE and 2DE assessment of maximal and minimal LA volume index (LAVimax and LAVimin, respectively). After excluding participants with poor image quality, low volume rate, atrial fibrillation at baseline and non-sinus-rhythm during examination, a total of 1,956 participants were included for this analysis. The endpoint was stroke. Multivariable Cox regression models were adjusted for the CHA2DS2-VASc stroke risk score (age, sex, heart failure, hypertension, stroke, vascular disease, and diabetes). Results Mean age was 54±17 years, 43% were male, mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 1.6±1.3. During a median follow-up of 4.8 years (interquartile range 4.3-5.5 years), 36 participants (1.8%) developed stroke. After multivariable adjustment, 2D LA volumes were not associated with stroke, whereas both 3D-LAVimax (HR 1.03 (95% CI 1.00-1.06), p=0.046, per 1 mL/m2 increase) and 3D-LAVimin (HR 1.05 (95% CI 1.02-1.08), p=0.002, per 1 mL/m2 increase) remained significantly associated with stroke (Figure 1). In addition, 3D-LAVimin showed the highest discrimination for predicting stroke with a C-statistic of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.59-0.80), which was significantly higher than 2D-LAVimax (C-statistic: 0.58 (95% CI 0.48-0.69); p=0.02), 2D-LAVimin (C-statistic: 0.54 (95% CI 0.42-0.65); p&amp;lt;0.001) and 3D-LAVimax (C-statistic: 0.62 (95% CI 0.52-0.73); p=0.004). 3D-LAVimin also showed incremental prognostic information when added to the CHA2DS2-VASc risk score (continuous net reclassification index 0.28±0.17; p=0.047). Conclusion Increasing 3D-LA volumes are significantly associated with higher risk of stroke in the general population which was not the case for 2D-derived LA volumes.

Long-term validation of AtherosSlerosis CardioVascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score and the role of aspirin for primary Cardiovascular prevention in Korean patients with over ASCVD 20% risk score

Abstract Background Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. The ASCVD risk score can be a great tool for preventing ASCVD in the future. There is a mediation recommendation depending on calculated risk called United States Prevention Services Task Force (USPSTF) aspirin (ASA) recommendation. However, the validation studies of long-term clinical outcomes in Korean population using the ASCVD risk score and of the effect of ASA in Korean patients using USPSTF recommendation are limited. Methods A total of 7,249 patients with any chest pain who underwent coronary spasm provocation tests between January 2004 and December 2021 were enrolled. Patients were divided into four groups, based on the ASCVD risk score: &amp;lt; 5% group (Low Risk, n = 2,534), 5 - 10% group (Borderline Risk, n=1,681), 10 - 20% group (Intermediate Risk, n = 1,896) and ≥ 20% group (High Risk, n = 1,138). The primary endpoint was Major Adverse Cerebral and Cardiovascular Event (MACCE1), including stroke and MACE. The secondary endpoint was MACCE 2, defined as composite of MACE and recurrent angina requiring follow-up coronary angiography (CAG). The third endpoint was the effect of aspirin in patients who have over 20% ASCVD risk. Results Long term (10-year) ASCVD risk score was well-validated from the "Low Risk" group to the "High Risk" group by 1.87%, 7.44%, 14.09%, and 30.61%, respectively (P &amp;lt; 0.001). In baseline characteristics, the calculation factors of ASCVD risk score is also well-stratified, showing the more adverse clinical profiles in the "High Risk" group than the "Low Risk" group. In 10-year clinical outcomes, although MACCE1 and MACCE2 showed an increasing trend numerically, stroke was observed to significantly increase according to ASCVD risk score. There was no effect of ASA prescribed in accordance with USPSTF recommendation. The group with the highest rate of 20% or more failed to show the aspirin prevent effect on the occurrence of CV events, but also increased the incidence (MACCE1; HR: 1.647, P-Value: 0.283, 95% CI: 0.662 - 4.100, MACCE2; HR: 1.819, P-Value: 0.025, 95% CI: 1.078 - 3.068). Conclusion Long term ASCVD risk score was associated with higher risk of stroke. However, MACCE1 and MACCE2 only showed an increasing trend numerically. Furthermore, the effect of ASA prescribed based on the USPSTF ASA use recommendation statement were not observed in Korean population. Consequently, additional research is needed to ensure the utility of ASCVD risk score and the effect of ASA in high-risk patients to prevent future CV events in Korean population.

Impact of blood pressure control on the risk of stroke and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation across different ages: a nationwide population-based study

Abstract Background High blood pressure in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is strongly associated with adverse outcomes, including stroke and death. The impact of blood pressure (BP) control on stroke and mortality rates among different age groups in patients with AF has not been extensively studied. Purpose To examine the impact of blood pressure on stroke and death in AF patients by age group. Methods Based on data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, we enrolled 194,302 patients newly diagnosed with AF between January 2009 and December 2016, who underwent health check-ups within two years. We divided patients into four groups based on age: 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years, and 70 years and above, to analyze the primary outcome based on the level of BP control within each group. BP control was categorized into five levels. Patients with systolic BP (SBP)&amp;lt;120 mmHg and diastolic BP (DBP)&amp;lt;80 mmHg (Level 1), 120≤SBP&amp;lt;130 mmHg and DBP&amp;lt;80 mmHg (level 2), 130≤SBP&amp;lt;140 mmHg and 80≤DBP&amp;lt;90 mmHg (Level 3), 140≤SBP&amp;lt;160 mmHg and 90≤DBP&amp;lt;100 mmHg (Level 4), and patients with SBP≥160 mmHg and DBP ≥100 mmHg (Level 5). We also divided patients into five groups based according to their SBP levels. We analyzed the occurrence of stroke and death based on the level of BP control within each age group. Results Among a total of 194,302 patients, 55,142 (28%) were included in Level 1, 24,925 (13 %) in Level 2, 88,020 (46%) in Level 3, 23,179 (12%) in Level 4, and 3,036 (1%) in Level 5, categorized by blood pressure. During a median follow-up of 5.2±2.4 years, 14,409 patients had an incident stroke (incidence rate, 14.2 per 1000 person-years), and 27,230 patients died (incidence rate, 25.8 per 1000 person-years). The lowest incidence of stroke was in the group with 120≤SBP&amp;lt;130 mmHg and DBP&amp;lt;80 mmHg (Level 2) across most age groups (Figure). Stroke risk significantly increased with BP levels above 160/100 mmHg, and BP≥140/90 mmHg was associated with stroke occurrence from the age of 50 onwards. Higher SBP (160 mmHg) was consistently associated with a higher incidence of stroke across all ages (HR 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-1.43 compared to SBP&amp;lt;100 mmHg). Mortality incidence was also lowest in Level 2, and a trend of gradually increasing mortality was observed as BP levels rise above this level. (Figure). Especially when SBP exceeded 160 mmHg, the probability of death also significantly increased across all age groups below 70 years old. Conclusion Uncontrolled hypertension (especially SBP&amp;gt;160 mmHg) was associated with higher risks of stroke and mortality in patients with AF. This association is notably more significant in the middle-aged group, specifically those between 40 and 59 years old, compared to older age groups. Therefore, particularly in middle-aged groups, it is crucial to emphasize adequate blood pressure control in patients with AF.Figure_DeathFigure_Stroke

Predictors of cardiovascular disease risk: findings from the National Survey of Health and Development Cohort

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a significant cause of mortality and morbidity within the UK. CVDs and all-cause mortality can be predicted with varying levels of certainty with different models. Purpose This study aimed to explore the incremental effect of risk factors and respective biomarkers on CVD events risk estimation models. Methods The National Survey for Health and Development (NSHD) birth cohort study, including 2547 women 2815 men, was used to model relationships between conventional and emerging risk factors and cardiometabolic and vascular outcomes, including myocardial infarction and stroke between 1999 and 2009. Logistic regression or XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models were used to predict the outcomes (myocardial infarction and strokes). Model fit was assessed by comparing predicted and known incident events in a two-by-two error matrix for binary outcomes. Results In a model including both sex and smoking alcohol intake (β = -0.029g; p &amp;lt; 0.05), body mass index (BMI) (β = 0.095 kg/m2; p &amp;lt; 0.05), glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) (β = 0.033 mmol/mol; p &amp;lt; 0.01) and total cholesterol/high density lipoprotein (TC/HDL) ratio (β = 0.459 mg/dL; p &amp;lt; 0.0001) waist-to-hip ratio (β = 5.632cm; p = 0.05) and waist circumference (β = 0.031cm; p &amp;lt; 0.01) were significant predictors of myocardial infarction. A lower risk was observed among those with higher average alcohol intake, whereas higher risk being observed among those with higher BMI, HbA1c levels, total cholesterol/HDL ratio, waist-to-hip ratio and waist circumference. For stroke, exercising 5+ times (β = -1.47; p &amp;lt; 0.01), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (β = 0.040mmHg; p &amp;lt; 0.001), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (β = 0.027mmHg; p &amp;lt; 0.001), pulse pressure (β = 0.033mmHg; p &amp;lt; 0.01), triglycerides (β = 0.388; p &amp;lt; 0.05) and total cholesterol/HDL ratio (β = 0.419; p &amp;lt; 0.01) were all significant predictors of stroke. We found that higher values of SBP, DBP, pulse pressure, triglycerides and total cholesterol/HDL ratio were associated with higher risk of stroke, whereas higher levels of physical activity were associated with a lower risk. Additionally, by combining BMI, HbA1c and total cholesterol/HDL ratio to the baseline model it provided the greatest F1 score of all models (0.123) and the greatest precision (6.7%), with a recall of 72.4%. With XGBoost we observed a reduced F1 score from 0.123 to 0.079, although adding information on alcohol intake and waist to hip ratio to this model, as previous analysis indicated great improvements in prediction, the F1 score obtained using the XGBoost increased from to 0.079 to 0.103. Conclusion This research shows that clinical and laboratory measurements play a potentially powerful role in predicting health outcomes when using evidence-based risk calculators. Using large cohorts allows for real-life long-term associations to be explored and quantified with a higher level of certainty for replicability across other populations.