High-resolution General Circulation Model Research Articles

Simulation of United States Mesoscale Convective Systems using GFDL’s New High-Resolution General Circulation Model

Abstract Accurate representation of mesoscale scale convective systems (MCSs) in climate models is of vital importance to understanding global energy, water cycles, and extreme weather. In this study, we evaluate the simulated MCS features over the United States from the newly developed GFDL global high-resolution (∼50 km) AM4 model by comparing them with the observations during spring to early summer (April–June) and late summer (July–August). The results show that the spatial distribution and seasonality of occurrence and genesis frequency of MCSs are reasonably simulated over the central United States in both seasons. The model reliably reproduces the observed features of MCS duration, translation speed, and size over the central United States, as well as the favorable large-scale circulation pattern associated with MCS development over the central United States during spring and early summer. However, the model misrepresents the amplitude and the phase of the diurnal cycle of MCSs during both seasons. In addition, the spatial distribution of occurrence and genesis frequency of MCSs over the eastern United States is substantially overestimated, with larger biases in early spring and summer. Furthermore, while large-scale circulation patterns are reasonably simulated in spring and early summer, they are misrepresented in the model during summer. Finally, we examine MCS-related precipitation, finding that the model overestimates MCS-related precipitation during spring and early summer, but this bias is insufficient to explain the significant dry bias observed in total precipitation over the central United States. Nonetheless, the dry biases in MCS-associated precipitation during late summer likely contribute to the overall precipitation deficit in the model.

Retracing cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea

In late summer, massive blooms and surface scums of cyanobacteria emerge regularly in the Baltic Sea. The bacteria can produce toxins and add bioavailable nitrogen fixed from atmospheric nitrogen to an already over-fertilized system. This counteracts management efforts targeted at improving water quality. Despite their critical role, the controls on cyanobacteria blooms are not comprehensively understood yet. This limits the usability of models-based bloom forecasts and projections into our warming future. Here we add to the discussion by combining, for the first time, satellite estimates of cyanobacteria blooms with output of a high-resolution general ocean circulation model and in-situ nutrient observations. We retrace bloom origins and conditions by calculating the trajectories of respective water parcels backwards in time. In an attempt to identify drivers of bloom development, we find that blooms originate and manifest themselves predominantly offshore where conditions are more nutrient-depleted compared to more coastal environments.

Turbulent Parameters in the Middle Atmosphere: Theoretical Estimates Deduced from a Gravity Wave–Resolving General Circulation Model

Abstract We present a scaling analysis for the stratified turbulent and small-scale turbulent regimes of atmospheric flow with emphasis on the mesosphere. We distinguish rotating-stratified macroturbulence turbulence (SMT), stratified turbulence (ST), and small-scale isotropic Kolmogorov turbulence (KT), and we specify the length and time scales and the characteristic velocities for these regimes. It is shown that the buoyancy scale (Lb) and the Ozmidov scale (Lo) are the main parameters that describe the transition from SMT to KT. We employ the buoyancy Reynolds number and horizontal Froude number to characterize ST and KT in the mesosphere. This theory is applied to simulation results from a high-resolution general circulation model with a Smagorinsky-type turbulent diffusion scheme for the subgrid-scale parameterization. The model allows us to derive the turbulent root-mean-square (rms) velocity in the KT regime. It is found that the turbulent RMS velocity has a single maximum in summer and a double maximum in winter months. The secondary maximum in the winter MLT we associate with a secondary gravity wave–breaking phenomenon. The turbulent rms velocity results from the model agree well with full correlation analyses based on MF-radar measurements. A new scaling for the mesoscale horizontal velocity based on the idea of direct energy cascade in mesoscales is proposed. The latter findings for mesoscale and small-scale characteristic velocities support the idea proposed in this research that mesoscale and small-scale dynamics in the mesosphere are governed by SMT, ST, and KT in the statistical average. Significance Statement Mesoscale dynamics in the middle atmosphere, which consists of atmospheric turbulence and gravity waves, remains a complex problem for atmospheric physics and climate studies. Due to its high nonlinearity, the mesoscale dynamics together with the small-scale turbulence is the primary source of uncertainties and biases in high-altitude general circulation models (GCM) in the middle atmosphere. We use the stratified turbulence theory and the gravity wave–resolving GCM to characterize different scaling regimes and to define various length, time, and velocity scales, that are relevant for the mesoscale and small-scale dynamical regimes. Our results highlight the importance of stratified turbulence in the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere region.

Extreme events representation in CMCC-CM2 standard and high-resolution general circulation models

Abstract. The recent advancements in climate modeling partially build on the improvement of horizontal resolution in different components of the simulating system. A higher resolution is expected to provide a better representation of the climate variability, and in this work we are particularly interested in the potential improvements in representing extreme events of high temperature and precipitation. The two versions of the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC-CM2) model used here adopt the highest horizontal resolutions available within the last family of the global coupled climate models developed at CMCC to participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects, Phase 6 (CMIP6) effort. The main aim of this study is to document the ability of the CMCC-CM2 models to represent the spatial distribution of extreme events of temperature and precipitation, under the historical period, comparing model results to observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5), multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) and Climate Hazards Group infrared precipitation with station data (CHIRPS) observations. For a more detailed evaluation we use both 6-hourly and daily time series, to compute indices representative of intense and extreme conditions. In terms of mean climate, the two models are able to realistically reproduce the main patterns of temperature and precipitation. The high resolution version (1/4∘ horizontal resolution) of the atmospheric model provides better results than the standard resolution one (1°), not only in terms of means but also in terms of intense and extreme events of temperature defined at daily and 6-hourly frequencies. This is also the case of average and intense precipitation. On the other hand the extreme precipitation is not improved by the adoption of a higher horizontal resolution.

Evaluation of Asian summer precipitation in different configurations of a high-resolution general circulation model in a range of decision-relevant spatial scales

Abstract. High-resolution general circulation models (GCMs) can provide new insights into the simulated distribution of global precipitation. We evaluate how summer precipitation is represented over Asia in global simulations with a grid length of 14 km. Three simulations were performed: one with a convection parametrization, one with convection represented explicitly by the model's dynamics, and a hybrid simulation with only shallow and mid-level convection parametrized. We evaluate the mean simulated precipitation and the diurnal cycle of the amount, frequency, and intensity of the precipitation against satellite observations of precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH). We also compare the high-resolution simulations with coarser simulations that use parametrized convection. The simulated and observed precipitation is averaged over spatial scales defined by the hydrological catchment basins; these provide a natural spatial scale for performing decision-relevant analysis that is tied to the underlying regional physical geography. By selecting basins of different sizes, we evaluate the simulations as a function of the spatial scale. A new BAsin-Scale Model Assessment ToolkIt (BASMATI) is described, which facilitates this analysis. We find that there are strong wet biases (locally up to 72 mm d−1 at small spatial scales) in the mean precipitation over mountainous regions such as the Himalayas. The explicit convection simulation worsens existing wet and dry biases compared to the parametrized convection simulation. When the analysis is performed at different basin scales, the precipitation bias decreases as the spatial scales increase for all the simulations; the lowest-resolution simulation has the smallest root mean squared error compared to CMORPH. In the simulations, a positive mean precipitation bias over China is primarily found to be due to too frequent precipitation for the parametrized convection simulation and too intense precipitation for the explicit convection simulation. The simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation is strongly affected by the representation of convection: parametrized convection produces a peak in precipitation too close to midday over land, whereas explicit convection produces a peak that is closer to the late afternoon peak seen in observations. At increasing spatial scale, the representation of the diurnal cycle in the explicit and hybrid convection simulations improves when compared to CMORPH; this is not true for any of the parametrized simulations. Some of the strengths and weaknesses of simulated precipitation in a high-resolution GCM are found: the diurnal cycle is improved at all spatial scales with convection parametrization disabled, the interaction of the flow with orography exacerbates existing biases for mean precipitation in the high-resolution simulations, and parametrized simulations produce similar diurnal cycles regardless of their resolution. The need for tuning the high-resolution simulations is made clear. Our approach for evaluating simulated precipitation across a range of scales is widely applicable to other GCMs.

Assessment of the Climatic Variability of the Kunhar River Basin, Pakistan

Pakistan is water stressed, and its water resources are vulnerable due to uncertain climatic changes. Uncertainties are inherent when it comes to the modeling of water resources. The predicted flow variation in the Kunhar River Basin was modeled using the statistically decreased high-resolution general circulation model (GCM) as an input for the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model to assess the hydrological response of the Kunhar River Basin under prevailing climate changes. The model’s best performance during the calibration and validation stages was obtained with a regular 0.87 and 0.79 Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency in the basin, respectively. Under the high-end emission scenario, a 122% increase was expected in evapotranspiration in the rising season of months during the winter period 2059–2079, and such developments were attributed to an immense increase in liquid precipitation and temperature. The model’s output reflects a potential for basin stream flow in terms of increasing liquid precipitation up to 182% at the beginning of the monsoon season in the period 2059–2079 in the scenario of high-end emissions. Moreover, the study produced possible uncertainties in high-elevation zones, where the modeling of a catchment can lead to typical snow ablation and accumulation in future projections. This study revealed that the precipitation rate will increase annually, resulting in an increase in the summer stream flow over the basin, though snow is hardly expected to accumulate in the basin’s future climate.

Simulations of Atmospheric Rivers, Their Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using GFDL’s New High-Resolution General Circulation Model

AbstractA 50-km-resolution GFDL AM4 well captures many aspects of observed atmospheric river (AR) characteristics including the probability density functions of AR length, width, length–width ratio, geographical location, and the magnitude and direction of AR mean vertically integrated vapor transport (IVT), with the model typically producing stronger and narrower ARs than the ERA-Interim results. Despite significant regional biases, the model well reproduces the observed spatial distribution of AR frequency and AR variability in response to large-scale circulation patterns such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern and Southern Hemisphere annular modes (NAM and SAM), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. For global warming scenarios, in contrast to most previous studies that show a large increase in AR length and width and therefore the occurrence frequency of AR conditions at a given location, this study shows only a modest increase in these quantities. However, the model produces a large increase in strong ARs with the frequency of category 3–5 ARs rising by roughly 100%–300% K−1. The global mean AR intensity as well as AR intensity percentiles at most percent ranks increases by 5%–8% K−1, roughly consistent with the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of water vapor. Finally, the results point out the importance of AR IVT thresholds in quantifying modeled AR response to global warming.

Characteristics of subsurface mesoscale eddies in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean from an eddy-resolving model

Subsurface eddies (SSEs) are common features of the ocean interior. They are particularly abundant in oceanic basins and the vicinity of major intermediate water outflows. They are responsible for subsurface transport of mass, heat, and salt. Analysis of high-resolution general circulation model data has revealed the existence of subsurface anticyclonic eddies (SSAEs) and subsurface cyclonic eddies (SSCEs) in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean. SSEs are abundant east of the Philippines (0°-22°N, 120°E-140°E) and in latitude bands between 9°N-17°N east of 140°E. The composite structure of SSEs was investigated. SSEs had a core at about 400-m water depth and their maximum meridional velocity exceeded 10 cm/s. They exhibited two cores with different salinity polarities in the surface and subsurface. Additionally, spatial distributions of heat transport induced by SSEs in the northwestern tropical Pacific were presented for the first time. A net equatorward heat flux toward a temperature up-gradient was observed. The analysis of eddy-mean flow interactions revealed that the circulation is baroclinically and barotropically unstable at different depths and to differing degrees. The energy conversions suggest that both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities are responsible for SSE generation east of the Philippines, whereas baroclinic instability caused by a horizontal density gradient and vertical eddy heat flux are important between 9°N and 17°N east of 140°E. Meridional movement of the north equatorial current and the north equatorial undercurrent can contribute to SSE generation in our study region.

On the heat budget and water mass exchange in the Andaman Sea

The characteristics of the T/S structures, water mass exchange and deep circulation in the Andaman Sea are investigated based on the simulation from a high-resolution general circulation model (MITgcm). The results show that, below 1 000 m, the water mass is saltier, warmer and more homogeneous in the Andaman Sea than that in the Bay of Bengal, attributing to the strong vertical mixing at the depth of ∼1 800 m. The water mass exchange between the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal goes through three major channels, which manifests itself as follows: the northern channel (Preparis Channel) is the main passage of water mass transport from the Bay of Bengal to the Andaman Sea, whereas the Middle Channel (the south of Andaman Islands and the north of Nicobar Islands) has an opposite transport; the southern channel (Great Channel) features with a four-layer water exchange which results in the least net transport among the three channels; all the transports through the three channels have an intra-annual variation with a period of half a year. At 1 000-m depth, the entire Andaman Sea is occupied by a cyclonic circulation in January and July while by an anticyclonic one in April and October. The semiannual cycle found in both the deep circulation and water mass exchange is likely associated with the downwelling eastward-propagating Kelvin waves induced by the semiannual westerly component in the equatorial Indian Ocean during intermonsoon seasons.

Amplified tropical Pacific rainfall variability related to background SST warming

Previous studies have found that under global warming, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related rainfall variability will become enhanced over the tropical central-eastern Pacific and weakened over the western Pacific. The climatological sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern exhibits a warming center in the equatorial eastern Pacific in projections. How this pattern contributes to projected changes in ENSO-driven rainfall variability has not been fully addressed. Here, we use “time-slice” experiments to investigate the response of interannual variability in tropical Pacific rainfall in boreal winter to a warming background SST and associated physical mechanisms. A high-resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Model is driven by the detrended observational SST (1979–2003) plus a warming pattern from the coupled model under the A1B emission scenario (2075–2099). The results show that precipitation interannual variability over the tropical central-eastern Pacific will be enhanced more than the surrounding regions under warming, which is mostly contributed by a faster increase in rainfall amount during the El Niño year relative to non-El Niño years. Based on a moisture budget analysis, both the dynamic and thermodynamic components in the vertical advection of climatological specific humidity contribute to the enhancement of El Niño-induced precipitation anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific where the dynamic effect is dominant. Moist static energy budget analysis further illustrates that vertical velocity is enhanced due to the increased transport of moist static energy from the lower troposphere into the middle-upper troposphere and the intensified warming effect of cloud longwave radiation caused by the increase of high cloud amount and altitude.

Ocean Eddy Energetics in the Spectral Space as Revealed by High-Resolution General Circulation Models

AbstractIn this study, the global eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget in horizontal wavenumber space is analyzed based on 1/10° ocean general circulation model simulations. In both the tropical and midlatitude regions, the barotropic energy conversion from background flow to eddies is positive throughout the wavenumber space and generally peaks at the scale (Le) where EKE reaches its maximum. The baroclinic energy conversion is more pronounced at midlatitudes. It exhibits a dipolar structure with positive and negative values at scales smaller and larger than Le, respectively. Surface wind power on geostrophic flow results in a significant EKE loss around Le but deposits energy at larger scales. The interior viscous dissipation and bottom drag inferred from the pressure flux convergence act as EKE sink terms. The latter is most efficient at Le while the former is more dominant at smaller scales. There is an evident mismatch between EKE generation and dissipation in the spectral space especially at the midlatitudes. This is reconciled by a dominant forward energy cascade on the equator and a dominant inverse energy cascade at the midlatitudes.

A practical approach to scale-adaptive deep convection in a GCM by controlling the cumulus base mass flux

As the horizontal resolution of general circulation model (GCM) is increased, the sub-grid scale vertical transport has to be decreased appropriately. In the present study, a resolution-dependent (so-called scale-adaptive or scale-aware) deep convection was formulated by controlling the cumulus base mass flux. Using a three-dimensional cloud resolving model simulation, we estimated the appropriate ratios of the sub-grid scale vertical transport to the total vertical transport of moist static energy for different horizontal resolutions, whose values are about 0.8 for 100 km resolution and about 0.6 for 50 km resolution. Those values were used as a guideline to decrease to the ratio of convective precipitation to the total precipitation in a high-resolution GCM. The cumulus base mass flux is reduced by multiplying a reduction coefficient, which is 0.2 for the 100 km resolution and 0.09 for the 50 km resolution in the present GCM. The GCM with the scale-adaptive deep convection produces the climatological mean precipitation similar to that of the original GCM, whereas it simulates the heavy precipitation frequency and the Madden and Julian Oscillation much better than those of the original GCM.

Possible teleconnections between East and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in projected future climate change

The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010–2039), mid-(2040–2069) and far-(2070–2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea–Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea–Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea–Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea–Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea–Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity.

The pioneering works of Professor Duzheng Ye on atmospheric dispersion, Tibetan Plateau meteorology, and air–sea interaction

This paper provides an overview of the impacts of the original works of Professor Duzheng YE on a selected set of observational and model studies with which the present author has been associated over the past several decades. The main themes of these works include atmospheric energy dispersion, air–land interactions over the Tibetan Plateau, and El Ni˜norelated air–sea coupling over East Asia. The dispersive behavior of observed atmospheric fluctuations accompanying cold surge events in East Asia is demonstrated. Cold air outbreaks over Korea and southern China are coincident with the successive downstream development of troughs and ridges, with the group velocity of such wave packets being notably faster than the phase propagation speed of individual troughs and ridges. In a more general context, dispersive features are also discernible from lagged teleconnection charts and cross-spectra of observed and model-simulated geopotential height variations on 10–30-day time scales. Using the output from a high-resolution general circulation model, the relative contributions of condensational, sensible, and radiative heating to the atmospheric energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau are documented. The rapid changes of the upper tropospheric Tibetan anticyclone and East Asian mei-yu (“plum rain”) precipitation band associated with the development of the Asian monsoon system are described. The principal anomalies in sea level pressure, surface wind, precipitation and sea surface temperature over southeastern China and the Philippine Sea region during El Ni˜no events are presented. The contributions of remote El Ni˜no-related forcing and local air–sea interaction to the occurrence of these anomalies are assessed.

Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

Predicting evolution in response to climate change: the example of sprouting probability in three dormancy-prone orchid species.

Although many ecological properties of species respond to climate change, their evolutionary responses are poorly understood. Here, we use data from long-term demographic studies to predict evolutionary responses of three herbaceous perennial orchid species, Cypripedium parviflorum, C. candidum and Ophrys sphegodes, to predicted climate changes in the habitats they occupy. We focus on the evolution of sprouting probability, because all three species exhibit long-term vegetative dormancy, i.e. individual plants may not emerge above-ground, potentially for several consecutive years. The drivers of all major vital rates for populations of the species were analysed with general linear mixed models (GLMMs). High-dimensionality function-based matrix projection models were then developed to serve as core elements of deterministic and stochastic adaptive dynamics models used to analyse the adaptive context of sprouting in all populations. We then used regional climate forecasts, derived from high-resolution general atmospheric circulation models, of increased mean annual temperatures and spring precipitation at the occupied sites, to predict evolutionary trends in sprouting. The models predicted that C. parviflorum and O. sphegodes will evolve higher and lower probabilities of sprouting, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century, whereas, after considerable variation, the probability of sprouting in C. candidum will return to its current level. These trends appear to be driven by relationships between mortality and size: in C. parviflorum and C. candidum, mortality is negatively related to size in the current year but positively related to growth since the previous year, whereas in O. sphegodes, mortality is positively related to size.

Global Distribution of Gravity Wave Sources and Fields in the Martian Atmosphere during Equinox and Solstice Inferred from a High-Resolution General Circulation Model

Abstract Results of simulations with a new high-resolution Martian general circulation model (MGCM) (T106 spectral resolution, or ~67-km horizontal grid size) have been analyzed to reveal global distributions of gravity waves (GWs) during the solstice and equinox periods. They show that shorter-scale harmonics progressively dominate with height, and the body force per unit mass (drag) they impose on the larger-scale flow increases. Mean magnitudes of the drag in the middle atmosphere are tens of meters per second per sol, while instantaneously they can reach thousands of meters per second per sol. Inclusion of small-scale GW harmonics results in an attenuation of the wind jets in the middle atmosphere and in the tendency of their reversal. GW energy in the troposphere due to the shortest-scale harmonics is concentrated in the low latitudes for both seasons and is in a good agreement with observations. The vertical fluxes of wave horizontal momentum are directed mainly against the larger-scale wind. Orographically generated GWs contribute significantly to the total energy of small-scale disturbances and to the drag created by the latter. These waves strongly decay with height, and thus the nonorographic GWs of tropospheric origin dominate near the mesopause. The results of this study can be used to better constrain and validate GW parameterizations in MGCMs.

Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM

The aim of this paper is to identify relative roles of different land-atmospheric conditions, apart from sea surface temperature (SST), in determining early vs. late summer monsoon intensity over India in a high resolution general circulation model (GCM). We find that in its early phase (June–July; JJ), pre-monsoon land-atmospheric processes play major role to modulate the precipitation over Indian region. These effects of pre-monsoon conditions decrease substantially during its later phase (August–September; AS) for which the interannual variation is mainly governed by the low frequency northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations. This intraseasonal variability which is related to mean vertical wind shear has a significant role during the early phase of monsoon as well. Further, using multiple linear regression, we show that interannual variation of early and late monsoon rainfall over India is best explained when all these land-atmospheric parameters are taken together. Our study delineates the relative role of different processes affecting early versus later summer monsoon rainfall over India that can be used for determining its subseasonal predictability.

Statistical characterization of high-to-medium frequency mesoscale gravity waves by lidar-measured vertical winds and temperatures in the MLT

We present the first statistical study of gravity waves with periods of 0.3–2.5h that are persistent and dominant in the vertical winds measured with the University of Colorado STAR Na Doppler lidar in Boulder, CO (40.1°N, 105.2°W). The probability density functions of the wave amplitudes in temperature and vertical wind, ratios of these two amplitudes, phase differences between them, and vertical wavelengths are derived directly from the observations. The intrinsic period and horizontal wavelength of each wave are inferred from its vertical wavelength, amplitude ratio, and a designated eddy viscosity by applying the gravity wave polarization and dispersion relations. The amplitude ratios are positively correlated with the ground-based periods with a coefficient of ~0.76. The phase differences between the vertical winds and temperatures (φW−φT) follow a Gaussian distribution with 84.2±26.7°, which has a much larger standard deviation than that predicted for non-dissipative waves (~3.3°). The deviations of the observed phase differences from their predicted values for non-dissipative waves may indicate wave dissipation. The shorter-vertical-wavelength waves tend to have larger phase difference deviations, implying that the dissipative effects are more significant for shorter waves. The majority of these waves have the vertical wavelengths ranging from 5 to 40km with a mean and standard deviation of ~18.6 and 7.2km, respectively. For waves with similar periods, multiple peaks in the vertical wavelengths are identified frequently and the ones peaking in the vertical wind are statistically longer than those peaking in the temperature. The horizontal wavelengths range mostly from 50 to 500km with a mean and median of ~180 and 125km, respectively. Therefore, these waves are mesoscale waves with high-to-medium frequencies. Since they have recently become resolvable in high-resolution general circulation models (GCMs), this statistical study provides an important and timely reference for them.