High-resolution Circulation Model Research Articles

From source to sink: part 1-characterization and Lagrangian tracking of riverine microplastics in the Mediterranean Basin.

The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most critically polluted areas due to its semi-enclosed structure and its highly anthropized shoreline. Rivers are significant vectors for pollutant transfers from the continental to the marine environment. In this context, a 3D Lagrangian simulation of the dispersion of riverine microplastics (MPs) was performed, which included the application of a recently developed model that reassessed the MP fluxes discharged by rivers. MP physical properties from river samples were further investigated to approximate vertical displacement in modeled ocean currents. The use of a high-resolution circulation model, integrating Stokes drift, turbulent diffusion, and MP sinking and rising velocities, enabled us to establish stock balances. Our simulation suggested that 65% of river inputs may be made of floating MPs drifting in the surface layer and 35% of dense MPs sinking to deeper layers. The Eastern Mediterranean tends to accumulate floating MPs, primarily originating from the Western Mediterranean Basin, where major river sources are concentrated. After 2 years of simulation, modeled stranding sequestered 90% of the MP inputs, indicating relatively short average residence times from a few days to months at most for particles at sea. Although spatial distribution patterns stabilized after this period and a steady state may have been approached, the surface concentrations we modeled generally remained below field observations. This suggested either an underestimation of sources (rivers and unaccounted sources), by a factor of 6 at most, or an overestimation of MP withdrawal through stranding, to be reduced from 90 to around 60% or less if unaccounted sinks were considered.

Climatology of gravity wave activity based on two Martian years from ACS/TGO observations

Context. Gravity waves redistribute energy and momentum between the lower and upper atmosphere, thus providing vertical coupling between layers, and they affect the state, dynamics, and variability of the upper atmosphere. The statistics of gravity wave activity on Mars is poorly explored but is required in order to characterize the atmospheric circulation and to constrain numerical models. Aims. We present the gravity wave statistics accumulated over two Martian years: from the second half of Martian year 34 to the middle of Martian year 36 (May 2018 to February 2022). The statistics includes seasonal and latitude distributions of the wave potential energy and drag, serving to represent the wave activity and impact on the atmospheric dynamics. Methods. The observations were performed by the middle- and near-infrared spectrometers of the Atmospheric Chemistry Suite on board the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter. The temperature profiles we obtained independently from both channels during simultaneous measurements show a good agreement, thus providing verification and enhancing confidence in the data. The gravity wave parameters included amplitudes of temperature fluctuations, potential energy per unit mass, and wave drag. These parameters were retrieved at altitudes up to 160 and 100 km from the middle- and near-infrared channels, respectively. Results. A comparison of the data obtained during the global dust storm of Martian year 34 with the corresponding period of Martian year 35 without a storm revealed a reduction of wave activity in mid-latitudes, which is in agreement with previous observations, and enhancement in the polar regions of the southern hemisphere, which was not predicted by simulations with a high-resolution circulation model.

Impacts of the freshwater discharge on hydrodynamical patterns in the Gulf of Arauco (central-southern Chile) using a high-resolution circulation model

Impacts of the freshwater discharge on hydrodynamical patterns in the Gulf of Arauco (central-southern Chile) using a high-resolution circulation model

Crescent-Shaped Low-Temperature Distribution along the Convex Topography in the Southeastern Edge of Taiwan Bank in Summer

Abstract Various physical mechanisms of ocean upwelling usually occur near or along coastal regions worldwide. Five upwelling zones of unequal intensity are found around the Taiwan Strait, and the Taiwan Bank (TB) upwelling zone has the most prominent characteristics of low temperature. In this study, satellite images, shipboard ADCPs (acoustic Doppler current profilers), and CTDs (conductivity–temperature–depth measures) were analyzed to investigate the processes of cold water upwelling around the TB shoaling zone. In addition, the MITgcm numerical model and the flexible cubic spline technique were also employed, allowing us to better understand those processes. The model results suggested that a combination of Ekman transport and the centrifugal force, driven by the geostrophic South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC), constitutes a physical mechanism to contribute the vigorous upwelling in the TB shoal zone. The upwelling is largely driven by Ekman transport. However, the centrifugal force may explain why the upwelling with a crescent-shaped distribution of low temperatures along the convex topography of the southeastern edge of the TB shoaling zone is more prominent than expected, as it tends toward the so-called gradient wind balance. Sudden relaxation of the friction force occurred because of the very sharp shelf break (20–60 m) and steep slope topography; a discontinuous velocity zone around the shelf break could also lead to vigorous cold water upwelling. Significance Statement Extensive data concerning the Taiwan Bank (TB) shoaling zone have been collected in the past decade in an attempt to improve understanding of the process of cold water upwelling in the area. Because the Kuroshio invades the South China Sea from the east, and the South China Sea Warm Current flows northeastward around the southeastern edge of the TB, water circulation in and around the sandbar is very complicated. Thus, we expanded our model range from small to large scale to avoid the open boundary settings of small-scale model (including the temperature and salinity fields, wind stress, and the model driving forces), which were not easy to set up. Thus, we used a large-scale, high-resolution circulation model to study a small-scale ocean region. Physical processes of this upwelling can finally be verified in the small-scale region. To compensate for the insufficient resolution of the large-scale numerical model, our strategy was to utilize the flexible cubic spline technique to resolve the curvature of the markedly meandering currents. In light of scale analysis, the results showed that in addition to the critical contribution of Ekman transport to the upwelling, the effects of centrifugal forces on upwelling in the TB shoal zone need to be considered.

High-resolution flow simulation in Typhoon 21, 2018: massive loss of submerged macrophytes in Lake Biwa

The global activities of typhoons and hurricanes are gradually changing, and these storms can drastically affect lake ecosystems through the recession of submerged macrophytes that regulate the water quality in lakes. Using an echosounder, we captured the short-term, massive loss of submerged macrophytes attributed to the abnormal fluctuation of the water level induced by the approach of a catastrophic super typhoon in the southern basin of Lake Biwa, Japan. This paper investigates the physical processes responsible for the loss of vegetation using a high-resolution circulation model in Lake Biwa as a pilot study area. The circulation model was coupled with dynamical models of the fluid force and erosion acting on the vegetation. Our simulation successfully reproduced the water level fluctuation and high-speed current (torrent) generated by the typhoon gale. The simulated results demonstrated that the fluid force driven by the gale-induced torrent uprooted submerged macrophytes during the typhoon approach and that this fluid force (rather than erosion) caused the outflow of vegetation. As a result, this uprooting attributed to the fluid force induced the massive loss of submerged macrophytes in a large area of the southern basin, which might have increased primary production and reduced the stock of fish such as bluegill in the lake. Our model can estimate the reduction in the macrophyte height within the range of − 1.3 to − 0.4 m, suggesting that fluid forces greater than the time-averaged value (1.24 × 10−4 N) were available. Flow speeds of approximately 0.8 m/s might be the critical value that induces the fluid force acting on the uprooting of the submerged macrophytes. Our approach is practical for evaluating changes in lake environments attributed to the massive outflow of submerged macrophytes under various climate change scenarios.

Fate of river-borne floating litter during the flooding event in the northeastern part of the Black Sea in October 2018

This study is focused on delivery and fate of floating marine litter (FML) carried by rivers to coastal sea. We examine a large flooding event which happened in the northeastern part of the Black Sea in October 2018. A high resolution circulation model coupled with a Lagrangian particle model is applied to simulate transport of riverine FML in the coastal sea. During this flood multiple river plumes in the study area coalesced into one stripe of freshened water which occupied large segment of coastal sea along the shoreline. Riverine FML was transported within this stripe far off its sources in river mouths and remained arrested near the shore. As a result, approximately half of the discharged FML was washed ashore by the Stokes drift. FML, which remained in the sea, accumulated at convergence lines associated with large salinity gradients at the fronts between the river plumes and the ambient sea.

3D hotspots of marine litter in the Mediterranean: A modeling study

The 3D dispersion of marine litter (ML) over the Mediterranean basin has been simulated using the velocity fields from a high resolution circulation model as base to run a 3D Lagrangian model. Three simulations have been performed to mimic the evolution of ML with density lower, similar, or higher than seawater. In all cases a realistic distribution of ML sources was used. Our results show that the accumulation/dispersion areas of the floating and buoyancy neutral particles are practically the same, although the latter are distributed in the water column, 80% of them found in the photic layer (average depth of 35m). Regarding to the densest particles, they rapidly sink and reach the seafloor close to their source. The regions of higher temporal variability mostly coincide with the ML accumulation regions. Weak seasonal variability occurs at a sub-basin scale as a result of the particles redistribution induced by the seasonal variability of the current field.

Seasonal variability of circulation and air-sea interaction in the Caspian Sea based on a high resolution circulation model

The Caspian Sea is the largest closed basin on Earth, with unique physical characteristics and complex bathymetry. Sparse measurements and coarse resolution models have not yet provided a full picture of its dynamics. In this study, a high resolution (∼3.3 km) Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was used to study its annual and seasonal circulation patterns, and distributions of salinity and temperature. Temperature and salinity nudging were implemented which forced the model to follow in situ observations. This approach effectively limited the model error in predicting the temperature and salinity. The model successfully reproduced sea surface temperature and salinity over the entire basin. The simulated sea surface salinity showed three salinity fronts over the Caspian Sea. The salinity profile was vertically uniform in deep waters of the Caspian Sea. In contrast, the vertical thermal structure formed the seasonal thermocline at a depth of 15–40 m which was intensified in summer. In general, the seasonal variability of water temperature or salinity was confined to the upper 100 m of the water column. Simulations revealed an impermanent weak northward current along the eastern coasts of the Middle Caspian Sea, a persistent strong southward current along its western coasts and a permanent deep anticyclonic gyre over the Southern Caspian Sea. Using a high resolution model, this study also reports several mesoscale and small scale structures in the Caspian Sea which have not been reported before.

Diagnosing transit times on the northwestern North Atlantic continental shelf

Abstract. The circulation in the northwestern North Atlantic Ocean is highly complex, characterized by the confluence of two major western boundary current systems and several shelf currents. Here we present the first comprehensive analysis of transport paths and timescales for the northwestern North Atlantic shelf, which is useful for estimating ventilation rates, describing circulation and mixing, characterizing the composition of water masses with respect to different source regions, and elucidating rates and patterns of biogeochemical processing, species dispersal, and genetic connectivity. Our analysis uses dye and age tracers within a high-resolution circulation model of the region, divided into nine subregions, to diagnose retention times, transport pathways, and transit times. Retention times are shortest on the Scotian Shelf (∼ 3 months), where the inshore and shelf-break branches of the coastal current system result in high along-shelf transport to the southwest, and on the Grand Banks (∼ 3 months). Larger retention times are simulated in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (∼ 12 months) and the Gulf of Maine (∼ 6 months). Source water analysis shows that Scotian Shelf water is primarily comprised of waters from the Grand Banks and Gulf of St. Lawrence, with varying composition across the shelf. Contributions from the Gulf of St. Lawrence are larger at near-shore locations, whereas locations near the shelf break have larger contributions from the Grand Banks and slope waters. Waters from the deep slope have little connectivity with the shelf, because the shelf-break current inhibits transport across the shelf break. Grand Banks and Gulf of St. Lawrence waters are therefore dominant controls on biogeochemical properties, and on setting and sustaining planktonic communities on the Scotian Shelf.

Integrated High-resolution Numerical Model for the NW Iberian Peninsula Coast and Main Estuarine Systems

Sousa, M.C.; Ribeiro, A.S.; Des, M.; Mendes, R.; Alvarez, I.; Gomez-Gesteira, M., and Dias, J.M., 2018. Integrated high-resolution numerical model for the NW Iberian Peninsula coast and main estuarine systems. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 66–70. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.The NW Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) coast includes a large diversity of estuarine systems such as Rias, river estuaries and coastal lagoons, being characterized by a high primary production, responsible for the significant fisheries and aquaculture productivity of the region. Thus, the main objective of this study is the development of a novel integrated high-resolution circulation and hydrographic coastal model designed with Delft3D-flow and applied for a large and complex area integrating the NWIP continental shelf and main estuarine systems. A domain decomposition technique was adopted to resolve the complex geomorphology in the study area. This approach allows local refinement in estuarine systems with the capability of two-way communication of water level, currents and hydrographic properties between those areas and the coastal ocean. The model was successfully validated using sea surface elevation, salinity and water temperature data from various observational sources, including remotely sensed images. Numerical calculations show good agreement with the observed water level in the entire domain. In addition, measured salinity and water temperature are well reproduced by the model. Results from two real events (summer 2005 and winter 2012–2013) were compared with remote sensing products, revealing that predictions adequately represent the hydrographic patterns observed. Results showed a complex interaction among estuarine systems as well with the adjacent coast, in addition to the accuracy of the integrated high-resolution numerical model developed in reproducing the hydrodynamic and thermohaline patterns of the NWIP coast and main estuarine systems.

Interaction between the Tidal and Seasonal Variability of the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf Region

AbstractAs part of a broader study of ocean downscaling, the seasonal and tidal variability of the Gulf of Maine and Scotian shelf, and their dynamical interaction, are investigated using a high-resolution (1/36°) circulation model. The model’s seasonal hydrography and circulation, and its tidal elevations and currents, are compared with an observed seasonal climatology, local observations, and results from previous studies. Numerical experiments with and without density stratification demonstrate the influence of stratification on the tides. The model is then used to interpret the physical mechanisms responsible for the largest seasonal variations in the M2 surface current that occur over, and to the north of, Georges Bank. The model generates a striation pattern of alternating highs and lows, aligned with Georges Bank, in the M2 surface summer maximum speed in the Gulf of Maine. The striations are consistent with observations by a high-frequency coastal radar system and can be explained in terms of a linear superposition of the barotropic tide and the first-mode baroclinic tide, generated on the north side of Georges Bank, as it propagates into the Gulf of Maine. The seasonal changes in tidal currents in the well-mixed area on Georges Bank are due to a combination of increased sea level gradients, and lower vertical viscosity, in summer.

Consistency of Geoid Models, Radar Altimetry, and Hydrodynamic Modelling in the North Sea

ABSTRACTRadar altimetry, when corrected for tides, atmospheric forcing of the sea surface, and the effects of density variations and mean and time-variable currents, provides an along-track realization of the marine geoid. In this study we investigate whether and how such an ‘altimetric-hydrodynamic’ geoid over the North Sea can serve for validating satellite-gravimetric geoids. Our results indicate that, using ERS-2 and ENVISAT along-track altimetry and water levels from the high-resolution operational circulation model BSHcmod, we do find distinct differences in RMS fits for various state-of-the art satellite-only models (beyond degree 145 for GRACE-only, and beyond degree 185 for GOCE models) and for combined geoid models, very similar as seen in GPS-levelling validations over land areas. We find that, at spectral resolution of up to about 200, an RMS fit as low as about 7 cm can be obtained for the most recent GOCE-derived models such as GOCO05S. This is slightly above what we expect from budgeting individual errors. Key to the validation is a proper treatment of the spectral mismatch between satellite-gravimetric and altimetric-hydrodynamic geoids. Comparison of data fits and error budget suggests that geoid truncation errors residual to EGM2008 (i.e. EGM2008 commission and omission error) may amount up to few cm.

Difference between the Lagrangian trajectories and Eulerian residual velocity fields in the southwestern Yellow Sea

The responses to tidal and/or wind forces of Lagrangian trajectories and Eulerian residual velocity in the southwestern Yellow Sea are investigated using a high-resolution circulation model. The simulated tidal harmonic constants agree well with observations and existing studies. The numerical experiment reproduces the long-range southeastward Eulerian residual current over the sloping bottom around the Yangtze Bank also shown in previous studies. However, the modeled drifters deployed at the northeastern flank of the Yangtze Bank in the simulation move northeastward, crossing over this strong southeastward Eulerian residual current rather than following it. Additional sensitivity experiments reveal that the influence of the Eulerian tidal residual currents on Lagrangian trajectories is relatively weaker than that of the wind driven currents. This result is consistent with the northeastward movement of ARGOS surface drifters actually released in the southwestern Yellow Sea. Further experiments suggest that the quadratic nature of the bottom friction is the crucial factor, in the southwestern Yellow Sea, for the weaker influence of the Eulerian tidal residual currents on the Lagrangian trajectories. This study demonstrates that the Lagrangian trajectories do not follow the Eulerian residual velocity fields in the shallow coastal regions of the southwestern Yellow Sea.

Turbulent flux modelling with a simple 2-layer soil model and extrapolated surface temperature applied at Nam Co Lake basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. This paper introduces a surface model with two soil-layers for use in a high-resolution circulation model that has been modified with an extrapolated surface temperature, to be used for the calculation of turbulent fluxes. A quadratic temperature profile based on the layer mean and base temperature is assumed in each layer and extended to the surface. The model is tested at two sites on the Tibetan Plateau near Nam Co Lake during four days during the 2009 Monsoon season. In comparison to a two-layer model without explicit surface temperature estimate, there is a greatly reduced delay in diurnal flux cycles and the modelled surface temperature is much closer to observations. Comparison with a SVAT model and eddy covariance measurements shows an overall reasonable model performance based on RMSD and cross correlation comparisons between the modified and original model. A potential limitation of the model is the need for careful initialisation of the initial soil temperature profile, that requires field measurements. We show that the modified model is capable of reproducing fluxes of similar magnitudes and dynamics when compared to more complex methods chosen as a reference.

Simulation of nutrient transport from different depths during an upwelling event in the Gulf of Finland

Numerical simulation experiments with a high-resolution circulation model were carried out to study nutrient transport from different depths to the surface 10-m layer during an upwelling event along the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland in July 1999. The initial nutrient distribution is based on field measurements performed in the north-western part of the Gulf. Wind forcing covering the period of the upwelling along the northern coast was turned through 180° to simulate an upwelling along the southern coast. The simulation results showed that the main phosphorus transport to the upper 10-m layer occurred from depths shallower than 30m for the upwelling events along both the northern and the southern coasts. Nitrogen transport to the upper 10-m layer was the largest from depths of 40–55m for the upwelling along the northern and 40–65m for the upwelling along the southern coast. Simulated cumulative volume transports to the upper 10-m layer from different depths showed that the contribution from deeper layers was larger in the case of the upwelling along the southern coast. The reduction of wind stress had a bigger influence on water transport from the deeper layers.

Flow, waves and water exchange in the Suur Strait, Gulf of Riga, in 2008

Wind, flow and wave measurements were performed in November–December in 2008 in the relatively narrow and shallow Suur Strait connecting the waters of the Väinameri and the Gulf of Riga. During the measurement period wind conditions were extremely variable, including a severe storm on 23 November. The flow speed along the strait varied between ±0.2m s−1, except for the 0.4m s−1 that occurred after the storm as a result of the sea level gradient. The mean and maximum significant wave heights were 0.53m and 1.6m respectively. Because of their longer fetch, southerly winds generated higher waves in the strait than winds from the north. All wave events caused by the stronger southerly winds induced sediment resuspension, whereas the current-induced shear velocity slightly exceeded the critical value for resuspension only when the current speed was 0.4m s−1. A triple-nested two-dimensional high resolution (100m in the Suur Strait) circulation model and the SWAN wave model were used to simulate water exchange in 2008 and the wave-induced shear velocity field in the Suur Strait respectively. Circulation model simulations demonstrated that water exchange was highly variable, that cumulative transport followed an evident seasonal cycle, and that there was an gross annual outflow of 23km3 from the Gulf of Riga. The horizontal distribution of wave-induced shear velocity during the strong southerly wind event indicated large shear velocities and substantial horizontal variability. The shear velocities were less than the critical value for resuspension in the deep area of the Suur Strait.

A High-Resolution Hydrodynamic Model of Puget Sound to Support Nearshore Restoration Feasibility Analysis and Design

Estuarine and coastal hydrodynamic processes are sometimes neglected in the design and planning of nearshore restoration actions. Despite best intentions, efforts to restore nearshore habitats can result in poor outcomes if water circulation and transport are not properly addressed. Land use constraints can lead to selection of suboptimal restoration alternatives that may result in undesirable consequences, such as flooding, deterioration of water quality, and erosion, that require immediate remedies and costly repairs. Quantitative models designed for application to the nearshore environment can minimize uncertainty about restoration goals, such as recovery of tidal exchange, supply of sediment and nutrients, and establishment of fish migration pathways. A high-resolution circulation and transport model of the Puget Sound, in the state of Washington, was developed based on an unstructured grid framework to define the complex shoreline using a finite volume coastal ocean model. The Puget Sound model is intended to assist with nearshore habitat restoration design and analysis, and to answer the question, “Can we achieve beneficial restoration outcomes at small scale, as well as estuary-wide?” Examples of restoration projects in the area illustrate the model’s capacity to simulate important nearshore processes such as circulation in complex multiple tidal channels, wetting and drying of tide flats, and water quality and sediment transport.

A box model of circulation and melting in ice shelf caverns

A simple box model of the circulation into and inside the ocean cavern beneath an ice shelf is used to estimate the melt rates of Antarctic glaciers and ice shelves. The model uses simplified cavern geometries and includes a coarse parameterization of the overturning circulation and vertical mixing. The melting/freezing physics at the ice shelf/ocean interface are those usually implemented in high-resolution circulation models of ice shelf caverns. The model is driven by the thermohaline inflow conditions and coupling to the heat and freshwater exchanges at the sea surface in front of the cavern. We tune the model for Pine Island Glacier and then apply it to six other major caverns. The dependence of the melting rate on thermohaline conditions at the ice shelf front is investigated for this set of caverns, including sensitivity studies, alternative parameterizations, and warming scenarios. An analytical relation between the melting rate and the inflow temperature is derived for a particular model version, showing a quadratic dependence of basal melting on small values of the temperature of the inflow, which changes to a linear dependence for larger values. The model predicts melting at all ice shelf bases in agreement with observations, ranging from below a meter per year for Ronne Ice Shelf to about 25 m/year for the Pine Island Glacier. In a warming scenario with a one-degree increase of the inflow temperature, the latter glacier responds with a 1.4-fold increase of the melting rate. Other caverns respond by more than a tenfold increase, as, e.g., Ronne Ice Shelf. The model is suitable for use as a simple fast module izn coarse large-scale ocean models.

Green Crab Larval Retention in Willapa Bay, Washington: An Intensive Lagrangian Modeling Approach

The European green crab (Carcinus maenas) is invasive on the U.S. West Coast. This study uses a high-resolution circulation model to determine the likelihood that green crab larvae spawned in Willapa Bay, Washington could be retained by circulation and behavior long enough to reach maturity and resettle within the bay. A particle-tracking method (the “diffusive Lagrangian return map”) is presented that makes it possible to track the dispersion of hundreds of thousands of model larvae—each subject to three-dimensional advection, vertical turbulent diffusion, and imposed vertical migration behavior—over their full 30–50 days development time with modest computational resources. Larvae spawned in summer show significant retention (5–40%) in the southern and western portions of the bay, including the Stackpole shoals near the mouth, the area most likely to be colonized by late-stage megalopae arriving from the coastal ocean. Larvae spawned in spring show much less retention throughout the bay because of (1) increased flushing caused by increased river input relative to summer conditions and (2) longer development times caused by lower water temperatures. The role of larval swimming behavior is secondary to hydrodynamics in setting these spatial and seasonal patterns of retention.

On the dynamics of oxygen, phosphorus and cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea; A model study

Oxygen and phosphorus dynamics and cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea are discussed using results from the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO). The high-resolution circulation model is used to simulate the time period from 1902 to 1998 using reconstructed physical forcing and climatological nutrient loads of the late 20th century. The analysis of the results covers the last 30 years of the simulation period. The results emphasize the importance of internal phosphorus and oxygen dynamics, the variability of physical conditions and the natural long-term variability of phosphorus supplies from land on the phosphorus content in the Baltic Sea. These mechanisms play an important role on the variability of available surface layer phosphorus in late winter in the Baltic Sea. The content of cyanobacteria increases with the availability of phosphorus in the surface layers of the Baltic proper and the probability for large cyanobacteria blooms in the model is rapidly increased at higher concentrations of excess dissolved inorganic phosphorus in late winter. The natural increase of phosphorus supplies from land due to increased river runoff since the early 1970s may to a large degree explain the increased phosphorus content in the Baltic proper. Another significant fraction of the increase is explained by the release of phosphorus from increased anoxic areas during the period. These results refer to the long-term variability of the phosphorus cycle. In accordance to earlier publications is the short-term (i.e. interannual) variability of the phosphorus content in the Baltic proper mainly explained by oxygen dependent sediment fluxes.