Highest Relative Probability Research Articles

Coursing the mottled mosaic: Generalist predators track pulses in availability of neonatal ungulates.

The density and distribution of resources shape animal movement and behavior and have direct implications for population dynamics. Resource availability often is "pulsed" in space and time, and individuals should cue in on resource pulses when the energetic gain of doing so exceeds that of stable resources. Birth pulses of prey represent a profitable but ephemeral resource and should thereby result in shifting functional responses by predators. We evaluated movements and resource selection of coyotes (Canis latrans) across a gradient of reproductive stages ranging from late gestation to peak lactation of female mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in southwest Wyoming, USA, to test whether coyotes exhibited shifts in selection and movement behavior relative to the availability and vulnerability of neonatal mule deer. We expected coyotes to track pulses in availability of neonatal mule deer, and such behavior would be represented by shifts in resource selection and search behavior of coyotes that would be strongest during peak parturition of mule deer. Coyotes selected areas of high relative probability of use by female mule deer and did so most strongly during peak parturition. Furthermore, searching behavior of coyotes intensified during pulses of availability of deer neonates. Our findings support the notion that coyotes exploit pulses of neonatal deer, presumably as an attempt to capitalize on a vulnerable, energy-rich resource. Our work quantifies the behavioral mechanisms by which coyotes consume ungulate neonates and provides one of the first examples of a mammalian predator-prey system centered on a pulsed resource.

Toward fixed point and pulsation quantum search on graphs driven by quantum walks with in- and out-flows: a trial to the complete graph

We treat a quantum walk model with in- and out-flows at every time step from the outside. We show that this quantum walk can find the marked vertex of the complete graph with a high probability in the stationary state. In exchange of the stability, the convergence time is estimated by \(O(N\log N)\), where N is the number of vertices. However, until the time step O(N), we show that there is a pulsation with the periodicity \(O(\sqrt{N})\). We find the marked vertex with a high relative probability in this pulsation phase. This means that we have two chances to find the marked vertex with a high relative probability; the first chance visits in the pulsation phase at short time step \(O(\sqrt{N})\), while the second chance visits in the stable phase after long time step \(O(N\log N)\). The proofs are based on Kato’s perturbation theory.

Young people are medically invulnerable to COVID-19 but vulnerable in the labor market: Korean evidence

BackgroundCOVID-19 and its preventive measures affect not only the state of public health but also the economy. The economic impact of COVID-19 varies depending on age, and it is argued that young people have experienced the greatest negative impacts.MethodsThis study was an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in January 2020 on the Korean labor market. Large-scale data from the Economically Active Population Survey from January to June of 2018 to 2020 were used when analyzing the impacts of COVID-19 on unemployment and the economically inactive population by age group. Through this study’s empirical analysis, we examined for this study whether the COVID-19 outbreak has affected the labor market differently based on age. By analyzing the interaction terms of the young person’s status and the time of the COVID-19 outbreak, we determined the impacts of the outbreak on economic inactivity among young people, as well as examining the reasons for these differential effects.ResultsCompared with the middle-aged or older group, young people were more likely to become economically inactive than unemployed. Our empirical results using multinomial logistic regression revealed several reasons for the increase in economic inactivity, such as discouragement during the job search, childcare, housework, and studying at an institution, along with other determinants of economic inactivity. Young people showed a significantly higher relative probability of becoming economically inactive or discouraged job seekers following the COVID-19 outbreak when compared to other age groups. In addition, through the analysis of the possibility of employment, the young people responded negatively to the possibility of employment in the future compared to the middle-aged after COVID-19.ConclusionYoung people in South Korea possess little career experience in the labor market and tend to be seeking work rather than working. Because economic activities are likely to shrink structurally during a pandemic, it is necessary to empirically determine the damage incurred by people who are vulnerable in the labor markets, such as the younger population which was the subject of this study. Accordingly, future policy directions are suggested for the prevention of a rapid increase in the rate of economic inactivity among the younger population during the pandemic.

How do African elephants utilize the landscape during wet season? A habitat connectivity analysis for Sioma Ngwezi landscape in Zambia.

The influence of environmental factors on the distribution and persistence of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) is pertinent to policy makers and managers to formulate balanced plans for different land‐use types.The study focuses on movement of elephants and how they utilize foraging areas in Sioma Ngwezi landscape in Zambia by answering the following questions: (1) Which environmental variables and land‐cover class predict the movement of elephants during the wet season in Sioma Ngwezi landscape? (2) What is the wet season suitable habitat for elephants in Sioma Ngwezi landscape? (3) What are the major wet season movement corridors for elephants in Sioma Ngwezi landscape?We used GPS telemetry data from the collared elephants to assess habitat connectivity. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and linkage mapper were the tools used to predict habitat suitability, movement corridors, and barriers in the landscape during the wet season.The study identified elevation, land cover, and NDVI as the most important environmental predictors that modify the dispersal of elephants in the landscape during the wet season. Additionally, a total of 36 potential wet season corridors were identified connecting 15 core areas mainly used for foraging and protection from poachers in the landscape. Of these, 24 corridors were highly utilized and are suggested as priority corridors for elephant movement in the landscape.The identified wet season habitats and functional corridors may help to combat elephant poaching by patrolling areas with high relative probability of elephant presence. The findings may also help abate human–elephant conflict such as crop‐raiding by managing identified corridors that run into agriculture zones in the game management area.

Nest Distribution of Four Priority Raptor Species in Colorado

ABSTRACT Raptors face threats such as habitat modification, climate change, and environmental pollutants in many parts of the western USA, where rapid human population growth exacerbates such pressures. However, information about distribution of raptor nests at broad spatial scales that could inform conservation efforts is lacking. To provide a contemporary estimate of nest distribution of four raptor species of special conservation concern (Bald Eagle [Haliaeetus leucocephalus], Ferruginous Hawk [Buteo regalis], Golden Eagle [Aquila chrysaetos], and Prairie Falcon [Falco mexicanus]) throughout Colorado, we used a statewide database of raptor nesting locations to inform species distribution models for monitoring and management efforts. We used generalized linear models to identify the relationship between nest locations and explanatory covariates relating to land cover, temperature, topography, and prey distribution. We investigated the effect of different methods for selecting the sample of locations available to raptors, comparing four selection frames: sampling from the observed locations of the target-group (i.e., other raptor nests), sampling from within a spatial buffer around observed locations, sampling from outside of the same buffer, or complete random sampling of the background locations without respect to observations. Out-of-sample validation techniques indicated strong predictive accuracy of our models. Each raptor species was best represented by a different one of the four approaches to sample available locations, refuting our expectation that models accounting for bias would perform better than those that did not. Our findings were consistent with generally understood habitat associations of these species. These models can be used to identify hot spots with high relative probability of use by breeding raptors and to inform future monitoring practices that use a standardized, stratified sampling design.

Integration of phlebotomine ecological niche modelling, and mapping of cutaneous leishmaniasis surveillance data, to identify areas at risk of under-estimation

IntroductionPassive surveillance systems are thought to under-estimate the true incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) by two- to five-fold. Ecological niche models based on remotely sensed data can identify environmental factors which favor phlebotomine vectors. Here we report an integrated approach to identifying areas at risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis by applying spatial analysis methods to niche model results, and local surveillance data, in two locations in Colombia with differing vector ecology. The objective was to identify townships in which later phases of the project could implement community-based surveillance to obtain direct estimates of under-reporting. Materials and methodsThe study was carried out in one municipality in each of two departments of the Andean region of Colombia: Pueblo Rico in Risaralda, and Rovira in Tolima. Niche mapping by maximum entropy, based on published and unpublished existing locations of Pintomyia (Pifanomyia) longiflocosa and Psychodopygus panamensis, and using variables on land cover, climate and elevation. Field catches were done in each municipality to test predictions of high relative probability of presence. The niche model results were included as a predictor in a conditional autoregressive spatial model, in which the outcome variable was the number of cases by township, as detected by passive surveillance. ResultsHaving rarefied 173 geolocated records, 46 of Pi. longiflocosa and 57 of Ps. panamensis were used for the niche modelling. At the national level, both species had high relative probability of presence on parts of the slopes of the three Andean cordilleras. Pi. longiflocosa also has a high relative probability of presence in the higher parts of the Magdalena valley, as does Ps. panamensis in some areas close to the Caribbean coast. At the local level, field catches confirmed that Pi. longiflocosa was the most abundant species in Rovira, and likewise Ps. panamensis in Pueblo Rico. The spatial regression showed that the incidence of ACL, according to surveillance, was positively, but not statistically significantly, associated with the relative probability of presence from the risk model. ConclusionsThese niche maps bring together published and unpublished results on phlebotomine species which are important vectors in Colombia. Maps of the fitted values of incidence were used to guide the selection of townships in which further phases of the study will attempt to quantify the extent of under-estimation of ACL incidence.

Reversing Tree Encroachment Increases Usable Space for Sage‐Grouse during the Breeding Season

ABSTRACTIn the Great Basin, coniferous trees are expanding their range at a rate higher than any other time during the Holocene. Approximately 90% of the expansion has occurred in ecosystems previously dominated by sagebrush (Artemisiaspp.). Transitions from open, sagebrush steppe to woodlands are considered a threat to the greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a sagebrush obligate gallinaceous bird that occupies approximately 56% of its pre‐European settlement distribution. Using a telemetry data set from 2010–2017 breeding seasons for a treatment area with conifer removal and an experimental control area, we assessed the efficacy of conifer removal for increasing usable space and determined relative probability of use of a landscape previously impacted by conifer expansion. Sage‐grouse increasingly selected areas closer to conifer removals and were 26% more likely to use removal areas each year after removal. Sage‐grouse were most likely to select areas where conifer cover had been reduced by ≤10%. The proportion of available locations having a high relative probability of use increased from 5% to 31% between 2011 and 2017 in the treatment area and locations with the lowest relative probability of use decreased from 57% to 21% over the same period. Dynamics in relative probability of use at available locations in the control area were stochastic or stable and did not demonstrate clear temporal trends relative to the treatment area. Targeted conifer removal is an effective tool for increasing usable space for sage‐grouse during the breeding season and for restoring landscapes affected by conifer expansion. © 2021 The Authors.Wildlife Society Bulletinpublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

Where and when to hunt? Decomposing predation success of an ambush carnivore.

Predator-prey games emerge when predators and prey dynamically respond to the behavior of one another, driving the outcomes of predator-prey interactions. Predation success is a function of the combined probabilities of encountering and capturing prey, which are influenced by both prey behavior and environmental features. While the relative importance of encounter and capture probabilities have been evaluated in a spatial framework, temporal variation in prey behavior and intrinsic catchability are likely to also affect the distribution of predation events. Using a single-predator-single-prey (puma-vicuña) system, we evaluated which factors predict predation events across both temporal and spatial dimensions of the components of predation by testing the prey-abundance hypothesis (predators select for high encounter probability) and the prey-catchability hypothesis (predators select for high relative capture probability) in time and space. We found that for both temporal and spatial analyses, neither the prey-abundance hypothesis nor the prey-catchability hypothesis alone predicted kill frequency or distribution; puma kill frequency was static throughout the diel cycle and pumas consistently selected a single habitat type when hunting, despite temporal and spatial variation in encounter rates and intrinsic catchability. Our integrated spatiotemporal analysis revealed that an interaction between time of day and habitat influences kill probability, suggesting that trade-offs in the temporal and spatial components of predation drive the probability of predation events. These findings reinforce the importance of examining both the temporal and spatial patterns of the components of predation, rather than unidimensional measures of predator or prey behavior, to comprehensively describe the feedbacks between predator and prey in the predator-prey game.

Nesting habitat selection and distribution of an avian top predator in the Canadian Arctic

Detecting and planning for ecosystem changes from climate and land-use alteration is limited by uncertainty about the current distribution of many species. This is exacerbated in remote areas like the Arctic, where the impacts of climate change are the strongest and where industrial exploration and development are expanding. Using remotely-sensed environmental information and known nest sites, we estimated the breeding distribution and habitat selection of the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) throughout most of Nunavut, a massive northern Canadian territory (>1.8 M km2) encompassing ∼15% of the world’s tundra biome. Our results show that peregrine falcons selected features of prior known importance such as rugged topography, but also sites with higher than average summer temperatures, more productive land classes, lower mean elevations, and lower mean summer precipitation. Our model identifies several areas of high relative probability of peregrine occurrence, some of which were unrecognized to date. Some of these areas may be targets for future industrial developments and are located in an area where some of the fastest climate changes are expected. Our model will allow managers to identify the areas that could be the most critical for monitoring in the context of future development and climate change.

Habitat use and movements of common eiders wintering in southern New England

ABSTRACTLittle is known about the habitat use patterns and movement ecology of American common eiders (Somateria mollissima dresseri) despite potential negative impacts on habitat and eider populations from anthropogenic sources (e.g., oil spills, hunting, offshore wind energy facilities). We used satellite telemetry to quantify migratory phenology, home range size, winter site fidelity, and resource selection of adult female eiders (n = 24) from December 2011 to July 2013 that were captured during winter in southern New England, USA. Eiders spent 39% of their annual cycle in southern New England. In spring, eiders took an average of 16 days (range = 2–47) in 2012 and 20 days (range = 1–61) in 2013 to migrate from wintering grounds to summer areas, whereas the duration of fall migration averaged 47 days (range = 7–115). Eiders exhibited high site fidelity to wintering areas, with 83% of birds with active transmitters (n = 23) returning to the study area the following winter (2012–2013). Mean individual core use home ranges on wintering grounds averaged 38.5 km2 and 95% utilization distributions were 199.3 km2. Based on habitat selection models, eiders preferred shallow, nearshore waters that had relatively fine sediments and a high probability of hard bottom. We estimated that only 3% of our 6,212‐km2 study area had a high relative probability of use by eiders. Future development (e.g., offshore wind energy developments) should avoid shallow, nearshore waters with hard bottoms preferred by eiders to minimize potential impacts. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

The influence of mitigation on sage-grouse habitat selection within an energy development field.

Growing global energy demands ensure the continued growth of energy development. Energy development in wildlife areas can significantly impact wildlife populations. Efforts to mitigate development impacts to wildlife are on-going, but the effectiveness of such efforts is seldom monitored or assessed. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are sensitive to energy development and likely serve as an effective umbrella species for other sagebrush-steppe obligate wildlife. We assessed the response of birds within an energy development area before and after the implementation of mitigation action. Additionally, we quantified changes in habitat distribution and abundance in pre- and post-mitigation landscapes. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development at large spatial scales is well documented. We limited our research to directly within an energy development field in order to assess the influence of mitigation in close proximity to energy infrastructure. We used nest-location data (n = 488) within an energy development field to develop habitat selection models using logistic regression on data from 4 years of research prior to mitigation and for 4 years following the implementation of extensive mitigation efforts (e.g., decreased activity, buried powerlines). The post-mitigation habitat selection models indicated less avoidance of wells (well density β = 0.18 ± 0.08) than the pre-mitigation models (well density β = -0.09 ± 0.11). However, birds still avoided areas of high well density and nests were not found in areas with greater than 4 wells per km2 and the majority of nests (63%) were located in areas with ≤ 1 well per km2. Several other model coefficients differed between the two time periods and indicated stronger selection for sagebrush (pre-mitigation β = 0.30 ± 0.09; post-mitigation β = 0.82 ± 0.08) and less avoidance of rugged terrain (pre-mitigation β = -0.35 ± 0.12; post-mitigation β = -0.05 ± 0.09). Mitigation efforts implemented may be responsible for the measurable improvement in sage-grouse nesting habitats within the development area. However, we cannot reject alternative hypotheses concerning the influence of population density and intraspecific competition. Additionally, we were unable to assess the actual fitness consequences of mitigation or the source-sink dynamics of the habitats. We compared the pre-mitigation and post-mitigation models predicted as maps with habitats ranked from low to high relative probability of use (equal-area bins: 1 – 5). We found more improvement in habitat rank between the two time periods around mitigated wells compared to non-mitigated wells. Informed mitigation within energy development fields could help improve habitats within the field. We recommend that any mitigation effort include well-informed plans to monitor the effectiveness of the implemented mitigation actions that assess both habitat use and relevant fitness parameters.

Resource selection modeling reveals potential conflicts involving reintroduced lions in Tembe Elephant Park, South Africa

AbstractEcotourism has motivated efforts to reintroduce lions (Panthera leo) to landscapes where they were not previously common. In 2002, four lions were reintroduced into the fenced Tembe Elephant Park, South Africa to improve ecotourism opportunities, but lions potentially compete for habitat with humans and endemic herbivores of conservation concern. We developed a population‐level resource selection function to map the relative probability of lion occurrence throughout Tembe Elephant Park to predict the spatial distribution of potential conflicts. In winter, high relative probability of lion occurrence spatially overlapped with Muzi reedbeds/hygrophilous grassland habitat, which is where humans gather natural resources. Comparatively, we found no spatial overlap with sand forest habitat used by endemic herbivores. The results were opposite in summer, with lion occurrence overlapping sand forest habitat and no predicted overlap with Muzi reedbeds/hygrophilous grassland habitat. During spring and autumn, the highest relative probability of lion occurrence spatially overlapped both Muzi reedbeds/hygrophilous grassland and sand forest habitats. These results show that lions might compete with humans in winter, spring and autumn and with endemic herbivores in all seasons but winter. Despite the success of reserve fencing in limiting human–lion conflicts, we show that communities that reintroduce carnivores continue to balance relative reward, associated with ecotourism, and risks to human safety and species of conservation concern. We discuss the importance of dynamic management practices that ensure temporal segregation between humans and lions within specific habitat types.

Large Molecules Reveal a Linear Length Scaling for Double Photoionization

We have measured the ratio of doubly to singly charged parent ions of benzene, naphthalene, anthracene, and pentacene using monochromatized synchrotron radiation up to 30 eV above the corresponding threshold. Our measurements show a striking similarity between the ratio of doubly charged to all parent ions and the ratio for helium. Moreover, the magnitudes of the ratios for these molecules scale linearly with their lengths with an amazing accuracy. A high ratio, i.e., a high relative double-photoionization probability, makes a molecule an important source of low-energy electrons that can promote radiation damage of biomolecules [B. Boudaïffa et al., Science 287, 1658 (2000)].

Desert Habitation History by14C Dating of Soil Layers in Rural Building Structures (Negev, Israel): Preliminary Results from Horvat Haluqim

Traditional archaeological approaches in the central Negev Desert used to employ excavation techniques in post-prehistoric periods in which stratigraphy is based on architecture, while material culture forms the basis for dating assessment and chronology. Such an approach was understandable, as it focused on the most visible remains of past human habitation. However, the detailed habitation record is in the soil rather than in the walls. Moreover, ceramics and stone tools in desert cultures often have limited time resolution in terms of absolute chronology. The rural desert site of Horvat Haluqim in the central Negev yielded 2 habitation periods with the traditional methodology: (1) Roman period, 2nd–3rd centuries CE; (2) Iron Age IIA, 10th century BCE. We have conducted at Horvat Haluqim initial excavations in small building remains that were never excavated before. Our excavation methodology focuses on detailed examination of the archaeological soil in building structures, coupled with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating for chronology, and micromorphology of undisturbed soil samples to study stratigraphy and soil contents at the microscopic scale. Here, we report preliminary results, concentrating on the14C dates. These suggest a much longer habitation history at the site during the Iron Age. The14C dates obtained so far from these building remains cover Iron Age I, II, III, and the Persian period. The oldest calibrated date (charred C4plants) in a rectangular building structure (L100) is 1129–971 BCE (60.5%, highest relative probability). The youngest calibrated date in a round building structure (L700) is 540–411 BCE (57.9%, highest relative probability). This excavation methodology provides additional “eyes” to look at past human habitation in the Negev Desert, seeing more periods and more detail than was possible with traditional schemes and ceramic dating.

Low energy ion scattering studies of polymer surfaces

Low energy ion scattering spectra have been recorded from samples of poly (methyl methacrylate), polyethylene, poly (oxymethylene), poly (ethylene teraphthalate), polycarbonate, poly (vinyl alcohol), poly (butanediol diacrylate), poly (vinyl chloride), polyimide and natural diamond. A number of examples are given of the capabilities of LEIS for determining the presence of inorganic impurities on the surface of such samples. For the oxygen-containing polymers, the O : C ratios in the LEIS spectra have been measured. These values were corrected for the relative sensitivity of LEIS for these elements determined from measurements on pure carbon and on B 2O 3 glass. The results show that the surfaces of the oxygen-containing polymers are greatly enriched in carbon with respect to what might be expected from the stoichiometry of the polymer. Measurements of the dependence of the scattered intensities from C and O as a function of primary ion energy are presented which indicate a high relative neutralization probability for He + scattered from carbon atoms.

The effect of the beech bark disease on the growth and survival of beech in northern hardwoods

AbstractA risk classification for beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.) based on tree characteristics before the onset of the beech bark disease indicated that the crown widths in relation to DBH of trees that died were narrower than the crowns of survivors. Quantitative information on beech trees in the central Adirondack Region of the New York State before and during the development of the beech bark disease was available which included repeated measurements (1954–1976) of fifteen tree variables on 417 beech trees. A risk classification was developed which separated the trees by diameter and condition with a high (0.6), medium (0.3), and low (0.05) relative probability of mortality. The classification should improve the ability to separate those trees that are apt to die within a short period of time From those trees which are apt to survive.