High Population Growth Rate Research Articles

Ecological transformation of capitalism

The UN Conference COP 28 (2023) showed the failure of the global strategy contained in the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. This encourages us to return to the problem of additional measures to protect natural habitats through a transition to moderate rates of economic growth, population growth and anthropogenic pressure on the environment. The article analyzes the ecological limits of growth of the world capitalist system, its economy and the global population. In order to preserve the natural habitat, capitalism inevitably faces transformation into a new post-capitalist formation capable of providing a moderate anthropogenic load on the environment accompanied by an increase in welfare and the preservation of the natural habitat for future generations. In dangerous proximity to the ecological limits of growth, it is necessary to abandon the prevailing goals of maximizing the scale of global economy and population, to reorient the population of the developing countries towards moderate fertility due to an increase in human development and quality-of-life indices, especially in the countries with low levels of above-mentioned indices accompanied by high population growth rates. A three-dimensional system of measuring economic growth is proposed. The conditions for economic growth balanced with the state of the environment are formulated.

Research on the Factors Contributing to Low Fertility in South Korea

In 2023, South Korea had a fertility rate of 0.8831, the lowest in the world. Compared to most other east Asian countries, Korea recovered from the Second World War relatively earlier and is home to some of the most influential companies in the world today. Therefore, while other east Asian countries are in the industrial stage characterized by moderate to high rates of population growth, Korea is already a post-industrial society, marked by low population growth. This paper aims to identify the contributing factors to South Koreas low fertility rate by examining previous surveys completed by Koreans, interviews done with Koreans, and statistics about the Korean economy and society. These surveys, interviews, and statistics show the current economic, social, and cultural characteristics of the country and the flaws in them that lead to low fertility rate. The first significant factor related to the low fertility rate in South Korea is the high economic uncertainty due to rising living costs. Many Koreans struggle to achieve financial independence and move out of their parents homes, which is a barrier to starting a family. The second factor is the rising number of women obtaining higher levels of education and subsequently entering the workforce. The last factor is the practice of neo-Confucianism beliefs that are patriarchal in nature. Therefore, the proposed solution is that the Korean government should focus on changing current social and cultural beliefs to minimize the conflict between family and work for Korean women.

East African Megacity Air Quality: Rationale and Framework for a Measurement and Modeling Program

Abstract Air pollution in Africa is a significant public health issue responsible for 1.1 million premature deaths annually. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of population growth and urbanization of any region in the world, with substantial potential for future emission growth and worsening air quality. Accurate and extensive observations of meteorology and atmospheric composition have underpinned successful air pollution mitigation strategies in the Global North, yet Africa in general and East Africa in particular remain among the most sparsely observed regions in the world. This paper is based on the discussion of these issues during two international workshops, one held virtually in the United States in July 2021 and one in Kigali, Rwanda, in January 2023. The workshops were designed to develop a measurement, capacity building, and collaboration strategy to improve air quality-relevant measurements, modeling, and data availability in East Africa. This paper frames the relevant scientific needs and describes the requirements for training and infrastructure development for an integrated observing and modeling strategy that includes partnerships between East African scientists and organizations and their counterparts in the developed world.

Evaluation of the RISE II integrated social and behavior change approach in Niger: A contribution analysis.

Niger faces a myriad of health challenges and development efforts are complicated by persistent poverty, high population growth rates, and climate change. Integrated social and behavior change (SBC) addresses health outcomes through collective action and approaches at the limited points of entry individuals have with the health system. We conducted a mixed-methods study to evaluate the effectiveness of an integrated SBC program in the Maradi, and Zinder regions of Niger. We applied contribution analysis, a theory-based plausibility analysis, to assess contributions of the intervention. We found the program contributed to improved behavioral determinants. Male engagement and income generating activities provided further support for women to practice health behaviors. However, increases in male partner out-migration was negatively associated with health outcomes. While the program did not generate statistically significant improvements in health outcomes in the intervention area, exposure to health messages and participation in women's groups were positively associated with health outcomes suggesting sustained implementation of the integrated SBC approach at scale may achieve improved health outcomes. Programs should continue to invest in health promotion efforts that include gender sensitive interventions. Further research is needed to understand how women's agency and autonomy evolves as household composition changes through male out-migration.

Penyelesaian Sengketa Perjanjian Jual Beli Beras Program BPNT Mitra Bulog Dengan E-Warong di Kabupaten Banjarnegara

The economic growth of a country with low per capita income but prosperous in the future with a high population growth rate, then the country is categorized as a poor country. Poverty remains a big problem for Indonesia to this day, even the government has not been able to overcome or resolve the problem of poverty. Indonesia has issued a program to accelerate poverty reduction, requiring integrated coordination between parties in formulating and implementing policies. This coordination ultimately resulted in a program, namely the Non-cash Food Assistance Program (BPNT) as one of the government's innovations. However, there were obstacles experienced while the program was running, for example the breach of contract committed by E-warong in Banjarnegara Regency by denying the contents of the agreement that had been agreed between Bulog partners and E-Warong. The aim of this research is to examine how to resolve disputes effectively using normative research methods by analyzing applicable regulations. The finding of resolving this dispute was using the assistance of a third party, namely the Banjarnegara Police, with a non-litigation process through Restorative Justice because it had entered the realm of criminal acts of corruption. So, to get their civil rights back, the Banjarnegara Police are looking for a solution to resolve the dispute between Bulog Partners and E-Warong in Banjarnegara using a Restorative Justice approach.

Geospatial identification of possible rainwater harvesting locations within a high-altitude Gilgit River basin, Pakistan

The management of water resources is no longer an option but a necessity especially in countries with a high rate of population growth like Pakistan. Pakistan has a high-water scarcity, an extremely varying topography, and is also one of the countries encountering the problem of climate change. Therefore, prudent utilization of available water resources is a matter in the plains of Pakistan as in its high-altitude regions. Instead of wasting water which is a valuable resource, rainwater harvesting is a way of saving rainwater as an alternative source of fresh water for better use. The aim of this study was to search for potential rainwater-harvesting areas in a high-altitude Gilgit River basin. This research employed the SCS-CN technique in estimating surface runoff in the GIS environment. The geospatial study used four input parameters: slope of the land, land covers, surface runoff and drainage density. The research concluded that some lands, especially those that are deserted in dry area and agricultural lands, can serve as the sites of rainwater harvesting, with only 4% of area that was highly suitable for the purpose. Nevertheless, 37% of the investigated area was shown as totally unviable for rainwater collection installations because of steep slopes and substantial volume of snow. Simultaneously, the rainwater storage design solutions suggested were check dam, percolation tank, and agricultural ponds with the area of 3.5%, 1%, and 0.75% of the given land area, respectively, for rainwater harvesting. The locations of potential catchment and planned rainwater harvesting structures would assist the local authorities and the policy makers to provide plans and design on the construction of water storages and also the optimization of water use.

The Intervening Role of Entrepreneurial Motivation in the Link Between Innovation Education and Entrepreneurial Intentions

Unemployment poses a significant challenge in Indonesia, exacerbated by the nation's high population growth rate, which intensifies competition in the job market. One of the most effective strategies to address this issue is to encourage entrepreneurship, thereby increasing the number of entrepreneurs who can create new job opportunities. This study aims to explore both the direct and indirect effects of innovation and entrepreneurship education on entrepreneurial intentions, with a particular focus on the mediating role of entrepreneurial motivation. The research utilizes a quantitative approach to examine how innovation and entrepreneurship education influence students' intentions to pursue entrepreneurial careers, and how entrepreneurial motivation serves as a crucial link in this relationship. The study's independent variables are innovation and entrepreneurship education, while entrepreneurial intention is the dependent variable, and entrepreneurial motivation acts as the intervening variable. The research was conducted among Vocational High School students, who represent a key demographic for fostering future entrepreneurs. The findings reveal that both innovation and entrepreneurship education have significant direct and indirect impacts on entrepreneurial intentions, mediated by entrepreneurial motivation. These results highlight the importance of enhancing entrepreneurial motivation as a pivotal factor in transforming educational and innovative inputs into concrete entrepreneurial outcomes. The study underscores the need for educational strategies that not only impart knowledge but also actively engage and motivate students to pursue entrepreneurship, thereby contributing to efforts to reduce unemployment through the creation of new enterprises.

Pengaruh Kelerengan terhadap Perkembangan Lahan Terbangun di Kabupaten Serang, Provinsi Banten

The flow of urbanization is unstoppable as the population grows, which is followed by an increase in the need for built-up land such as housing, commercial centers, public services, industry. Meanwhile, each land has different characteristics to support these human activities. In land suitability studies, the slope is an important factor and is always involved. This study aims to determine the influence of slope on the development of built-up land in Serang Regency, as one of the areas with a high population growth rate and a variety of regional morphologies. Land cover/land use change analysis was used to determine the spatial distribution of additional built-up land in the period 2019-2023 and 2023-2031. 87% of the additional built-up land in 2019-2023 is located in areas with slopes of 2-15%. Then based on the Serang Regency Regional Spatial Plan 2011-2031, as much as 84% of the additional built-up land is in areas with slopes of 2-15%. This shows that the slope aspect has had a significant influence on the development of Serang Regency, where more than 80% of the additional built-up land has been located in zones that are safe from land slide.

Age-Stage, Two-Sex Life Table of Atractomorpha lata (Orthoptera: Pyrgomorphidae) at Different Temperatures.

Atractomorpha lata Motschoulsky (Orthoptera: Pyrgomorphidae) has recently emerged as an important agricultural pest in China. Understanding the impact of temperature on its developmental period is crucial for predicting its population dynamics. This study systematically observed the biological characteristics of A. lata at five temperatures (16, 20, 24, 28, and 32 °C) using the age-stage, two-sex life table method. The effects of temperature on the developmental period, survival rate, and fecundity of A. lata were studied using fresh bean leaves as host. The results demonstrated that as temperature increased from 16 °C to 32 °C, the developmental period, preadult time, adult longevity, adult preoviposition period (APOP), and total preoviposition period (TPOP) significantly decreased. The developmental threshold temperatures for various stages were calculated, ranging from 10.47 °C to 13.01 °C, using the linear optimal method. As temperature increased, both the intrinsic rate of increase (r) and the finite rate of increase (λ) also increased, while the mean generation time (T) decreased. The optimal values of the net reproductive rate (R0 = 54.26 offspring), gross reproductive rate (GRR = 185.53 ± 16.94 offspring), and fecundity (169.56 ± 9.93 eggs) were observed at 24 °C. Similarly, the population trend index (I) for A. lata peaked at 24 °C (61.64). Our findings indicate that A. lata exhibits its highest population growth rate at 24 °C, providing a scientific basis for predicting its population dynamics in the field.

Swimming Performance Assessments of Fish Species of Greatest Conservation Need to Inform Future Stream Crossing Designs in Texas

Conventional structures associated with stream crossings such as bridges and culverts can lead to zones of high-velocity water flow that impede fish passage. Such obstacles are likely to harm native fish populations by impacting migrations critical to their life history strategies, causing habitat fragmentation and extirpation, thereby limiting population growth and distribution. Due to the high rates of human population growth and development occurring in Texas, this is an issue of particular concern for fish designated as species of greatest conservation need (SGCN). This project focused on four SGCN fishes native to the Edwards Plateau Ecoregion, namely the Guadalupe Bass, Guadalupe Roundnose Minnow, Guadalupe Darter, and Plateau Shiner, at both adult (all species) and juvenile (Guadalupe Bass only) life stages. Our primary aim was to aid in the design of future culverts associated with stream crossings (or the modification of existing culverts) so that the water velocities through these structures do not exceed the swimming capacities of our target SGCN fishes. To this end, we assessed their maximum sustained swimming speeds (Ucrit) under a typical range of Edwards Plateau stream temperatures (15, 22.5, and 30 °C) to be used in site-specific calculations of the maximum allowable culvert water velocities (Vf). A secondary objective was to collect physiological endpoints of relevance to the overall swimming performance including the maximum burst swimming speeds (Umax), metabolic rate measurements (i.e., standard metabolic rate (SMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR), and aerobic scope (AS)), cost of transport (COT), and optimal swimming speed (Uopt). Temperature-related effects were observed that can be used to inform site-specific culvert designs. In general, the highest Ucrit values for the tested species were near, or possibly between, 22.5 and 30 °C, while Umax stayed relatively consistent among treatments.

Understanding maternal Ethnomedical Folklore in Central Uganda: a cross-sectional study of herbal remedies for managing Postpartum hemorrhage, inducing uterine contractions and abortion in Najjembe sub-county, Buikwe district

Pregnant women in rural Uganda largely rely on medicinal plants for inducing labor, treating postpartum hemorrhage (PPH), and inducing abortion. 90% of the women in both rural and urban Uganda use plants to manage pregnancy symptoms like constipation, heartburn, morning sickness, body aches, nausea, and vomiting. After delivery women continue using plants to manage postpartum complications and for infant care especially herbal baths. This study documented how ethnomedical folklore has been used to aid childbirth, manage postpartum hemorrhage, and induce abortion.MethodsA cross-sectional ethnobotanical survey was conducted from May – December 2023 in Najjemebe sub-county, Buikwe district. 206 respondents from 12 villages were selected using snowball sampling. Key informants included Traditional Birth Attendants (TBAs) and herbalists. Data was collected using semi-structured questionnaires and focus group discussions. Voucher specimens of the plants were identified and authenticated at Makerere University Herbarium. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Informant Consensus factor (ICF), Use Reports (URs), paired comparisons, and GraphPad Prism® version 9.0.0 software.ResultsAll respondents (N = 206, 100%), used plants to induce labour, treat PPH, and induce abortion. One hundred four plant species were documented: most cited or preferred were: Hoslundia opposita (N = 109, 53%), Phytolacca dodecandra (N = 72, 35%), and Commelina erecta (N = 47, 23%). The plants belonged to 49 families, Lamiaceae (16.3%) and Fabaceae (14.3%) having the majority of the species. Herbs were 42 (40%) and trees 23 (22%). Oral administration 95(72%) was the commonest, then topical 19 (14.4%) and vaginal 14(10.6%).ConclusionHealth surveys revealed that about 27% of deliveries in Uganda take place outside a health facility. Due to the oxytocic effects of plant species reported in this study, they play a triple role of being uterotonics, abortifacients, and treating postpartum haemmorhage. The dilemma lies in the unknown dosages and toxicity levels that could endanger both the mother’s and the unborn child’s lives. Due to Uganda’s high rates of population growth, overall fertility, maternal mortality, and morbidity, policies, and programmes on gendered health provision need to be reevaluated. Integrating herbal medicine into health care systems appears to be a feasible solution.

SCARCITY OF WATER RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA AS A FACTOR OF ECOLOGICAL MIGRATION

In the article, issues and the specificity of the deficit in the Central Asian region are considered as a factor of environmental migration. The climate on a global scale is affected by environmental disasters and crises in many countries of the world. The results of research show that the lack of fresh water in the near future represents a serious decline for people, which will lead to serious consequences: the meeting of the post and consideration of the questions will be held at the highest level and there is a need to control the migration of the population from the place, where there is no waste of water, the emergence of various social cataclysms and conflict situations. Central Asia is considered one of these treacherous regions, where the lack of water flows. The lack of water resources can not only attract millions of people, but also to combat conflicts and destabilize the political situation in the region, which has geostrategic knowledge. Therefore, the current political analysis of such problems is carried out, the identification of candidates, the search for solutions and the prognosis of the future. The author notes that in the long term in the Central Asian region, the problem of water scarcity will be aggravated due to high rates of population growth, in connection with which Interstate contradictions in the water and energy sector will deepen, and environmental migration will intensify. Water scarcity in Central Asia will be analyzed as a natural factor causing spontaneous migration, its consequences will be predicted, and proposals will be made that will contribute to the implementation of environmental, migration and water policies at the regional level.

Analisis Produktivitas Alat Berat dalam Pengelolaan Sampah di Kecamatan Sukarami Kota Palembang

In Indonesia, solid waste has become a problem for municipalities, which could result in hygienic and aesthetically unpleasant issues. The high rate of population growth will have an impact on waste generation since it will change the needs and lifestyles of city dwellers. The collection, transportation, and final disposal of urban solid waste (TPA) require suitable facilities and infrastructure, particularly hefty equipment. Heavy equipment, specifically waste trucks, and heavy digging equipment, plays a significant part in supporting waste management activities. In particular, the Palembang City region is covered in this study's discussion of the productivity of heavy machinery used in waste management, which might begin with the collecting system, transportation system, and heavy equipment employed at the landfill. The study was conducted in Palembang City's Sukarami District, and data was collected by surveying and observing the current condition of the heavy equipment that was already in place, namely in terms of cycle time variables and the volume of waste that was served. The findings of the study indicate that direct communal and direct individual patterns characterize the region's waste-collecting practices. Dump trucks, which are used to transport waste, had a productivity range of 609.98 to 1266.13 kilograms per hour, while bulldozers and excavators had a range of 759.42 to 1166.17 kilograms per hour. This heavy equipment repair recommendation is targeted at bulldozers and excavators since a field investigation reveals that there are now only 2 pieces of bulldozer heavy equipment and 1 unit of excavator heavy equipment available.

Unveiling the health consequences of air pollution in the world’s most polluted nations

Air pollution poses a persuasive threat to global health, demonstrating widespread detrimental effects on populations worldwide. Exposure to pollutants, notably particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 µm (PM2.5), has been unequivocally linked to a spectrum of adverse health outcomes. A nuanced understanding of the relationship between them is crucial for implementing effective policies. This study employs a comprehensive investigation, utilizing the extended health production function framework alongside the system generalized method of moments (SGMM) technique, to scrutinize the interplay between air pollution and health outcomes. Focusing on a panel of the top twenty polluted nations from 2000 to 2021, the findings yield substantial insights. Notably, PM2.5 concentration emerges as a significant factor, correlating with a reduction in life expectancy by 3.69 years and an increase in infant mortality rates by 0.294%. Urbanization is found to increase life expectancy by 0.083 years while concurrently decreasing infant mortality rates by 0.00022%. An increase in real per capita gross domestic product corresponds with an improvement in life expectancy by 0.21 years and a decrease in infant mortality rates by 0.00065%. Similarly, an elevated school enrollment rate is associated with a rise in life expectancy by 0.17 years and a decline in infant mortality rates by 0.00032%. However, a higher population growth rate is found to modestly decrease life expectancy by 0.019 years and slightly elevate infant mortality rates by 0.000016%. The analysis reveals that per capita greenhouse gas emissions exert a negative impact, diminishing life expectancy by 0.486 years and elevating infant mortality rates by 0.00061%, while per capita energy consumption marginally reduces life expectancy by 0.026 years and increases infant mortality rates by 0.00004%. Additionally, economic volatility shock presents a notable decrement in life expectancy by 0.041 years and an increase in infant mortality rates by 0.000045%, with inflationary shock further exacerbating adverse health outcomes by lowering life expectancy by 0.70 years and elevating infant mortality rates by 0.00025%. Moreover, the study scrutinizes the role of institutional quality, revealing a constructive impact on health outcomes. Specifically, the institutional quality index is associated with an increase in life expectancy by 0.66% and a decrease in infant mortality rates by 0.0006%. Extending the analysis to examine the nuanced dimensions of institutional quality, the findings discern that economic institutions wield a notably stronger positive influence on health outcomes compared to political and institutional governance indices. Finally, the results underscore the pivotal moderating role of institutional quality in mitigating the deleterious impact of PM2.5 concentration on health outcomes, counterbalancing the influence of external shocks, and improving the relationships between explanatory variables and health outcome indicators. These findings offer critical insights for guiding evidence-based policy implications, with a focus on fostering resilient, sustainable, and health-conscious societies.

Population intensity, location choice, and investment portfolio selection: A case of emerging economies

Rapid population growth is often considered a barrier to economic advancement and strategic corporate investment. However, the nuances of this impact remain insufficiently explored. This study aims to explore the impact of population density and location choice on firms' investment decisions, elucidating how these elements shape enterprises' portfolio selections. To investigate this impact, data spanning ten years (2010–2019) from non-financial sector firms in China and Pakistan were scrutinized. Utilizing 2SLS and GMM models, we measured the external influence of these factors on both long-term and short-term investment strategies. The statistical analysis reveals that corporate firms originating from countries with high population growth rates, situated in densely populated areas, exhibit a predilection for long-term investments. This favorable trend can be attributed to heightened product demand and convenient access to local markets. Nevertheless, a comparative assessment between Pakistan and China delineates contrasting effects of location on short-term investments—positively impacting in the case of Pakistan and negatively affecting in the case of China. These findings carry significant implications for crafting regional development policies aimed at fostering industrial growth. Furthermore, beyond conventional determinants, this study introduces fresh perspectives on the role of demographic and geographic factors in shaping industrial investments, addressing a gap in existing literature where similar analyses are absent.

From ‘demographic bomb’ to ‘silver tsunami’: Navigating global population shifts

Just six decades ago, the world was experiencing remarkably high population growth rates, which led to the coining of the term ‘demographic bomb’ to describe concerns associated with population size. At the time, the global population was three billion. Since then, an extra billion people have been added every 12 years. However, the pre-eminent demographic challenge of the twenty-first century is population ageing, a global, irreversible and unprecedented trend. The number of people aged 65 and over has almost doubled since the turn of the century and currently accounts for 10% of the global population. An extra billion people are expected to age into the older category within the next 35 years. In Europe, half of the population is above 45 years of age, and the number of those above 65 years old is greater than the number of children under 15. Commonly referred to as the ‘silver tsunami’, it is feared that the increasing number of older people will have a destructive impact on economies and social systems. Never before have our lives been longer, our families smaller and our societies more multigenerational. The new reality of longevity requires a shift in how we approach ageing. This article explores ways to cope with the challenges of the silver era we are heading towards.

Assessment of Future Water Demand Utilizing the Weap Model in Bhavnagar City, Gujarat, India

Abstract: Water resources management and analysis is very critical in today’s ever increasing and demanding world. Different types of schemes and software for management are available to meet these requirements. WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) software is an integrated approach towards evaluating and planning of water demand and supply that can be very helpful in analysing and understanding water requirements of a particular city, area or region based on various inputs and further trying to understand and predict the future requirements. In this study, a WEAP model for future water demand of Bhavnagar city in Gujarat, is developed, that can predict the water demand requirement upto year 2041. Evaluation of WEAP is done based on census data for 2011 (as census data for 2021 for 10 year period was discontinued due to Covid-19 pandemic), considering 1.67% of growth rate. The final results include three scenarios, namely, Low population growth rate 1.5%, Moderated population growth rate 2%, High population growth rate 2.5%.

DETERMINAN PERMINTAAN PERUMAHAN DI KOTA MATARAM

A place to live or a house is a necessary necessity in living human daily life. Mataram City is the capital of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province and is one of the centers of economic growth, with a high population growth rate compared to 10 other districts/cities in NTB. This population growth causes the demand for housing/own houses or property rights to be very high, but on the other hand, land is getting narrower and more expensive, resulting in house prices becoming expensive and this has a big impact on people who are less fortunate in terms of their income. To meet the demand for housing from the community, we encourage developers to build housing with various types/models that are tailored to the income and desires of the community. The aim of the research is to analyze the influence of population, per capita income and inflation on housing demand in Mataram City. This research uses secondary data obtained from BPS Mataram City, BPS NTB Province, NTB Housing Statistics and other data sources relevant to this research. The data were analyzed using a multiple linear regression model with panel data and using the Eviews 12 calculation tool. The results of the study showed that the results of the multiple linear regression using the OLS method were found to have two variables that had a significant effect, namely the population and GRDP variables, while the inflation variable had an effect not significant.

Peningkatan Pengetahuan KB Implan pada WUS di Desa Bandar Agung Wilayah Kerja Puskesmas Sribhawono

The main problem in Indonesia is the population growth rate which is still high with a percentage of 278.8 million in 2023. This problem can be prevented by using contraceptives that are effective and have long-term effects, one example is the use of birth control implants. Bandar Agung village is a village with a population of 17,000 people and consists of WUS. Based on data, the majority of the population still does not use long-term contraceptives, on average 70% of people prefer to use injectable contraceptives. One of the reasons for mothers' interest in using contraceptive implants is the mother's lack of knowledge about implants. So the solution offered to this problem is to provide education regarding implant contraception. The methods used in this activity are lectures, discussions and questions and answers. So with this activity, it is hoped that the community, especially women, will be able to understand and realize the importance of using family planning, one of which is implantable family planning and that there will be an increase in knowledge for WUS by 75%. With this program in the Puskesmas area, it is hoped that the community, especially women, can carry out implant contraception to reduce the high population growth rate

Recolonization of secondary forests by a locally extinct Caribbean anole through the lens of range expansion theory.

Disturbance and recovery dynamics are characteristic features of many ecosystems. Disturbance dynamics are widely studied in ecology and conservation biology. Still, we know less about the ecological processes that drive ecosystem recovery. The ecological processes that mediate ecosystem recovery stand at the intersection of many theoretical frameworks. Range expansion theory is one of these complementary frameworks that can provide unique insights into the population-level processes that mediate ecosystem recovery, particularly fauna recolonization. Although the biodiversity patterns that follow the fauna recolonization of recovering forests have been well described in the literature, the ecological processes at the population level that drive these patterns remain conspicuously unknown. In this study, we tested three fundamental predictions of range expansion theory during the recolonization of recovering forests in Puerto Rico by a shade specialist anole, Anolis gundlachi. Range expansion theory predicts that individuals at the early stages of recolonization (i.e., younger forests) would have a high prevalence of dispersive traits, experience less density dependence, and suffer less parasitism. To test these predictions, we conducted a chronosequence study applying space-for-time substitution where we compared phenotypic traits (i.e., body size, body condition, and relative limb size), population density, population growth rates, and Plasmodium parasitism rates among lizard populations living in young (<30 years), mid (~40-70 years), and old-growth forests (>75 years). Lizard populations in younger forests had lower densities, higher population growth rates, and lower rates of Plasmodium parasitism compared with old-growth forests. Still, while we found that individuals had larger body sizes, and longer forelimbs in young forests in one site, this result was not consistent among sites. This suggests a potential trade-off between the traits that provide a dispersal advantage during the initial stages of recolonization and those that are advantageous to establish in novel environmental conditions. Overall, our study emphasizes the suitability of range expansion theory to describe fauna recolonization but also highlights that the ecological processes that drive recolonization are time-dependent, complex, and nuanced.