High Production Risks Research Articles

Production risk analysis of semi-organic rice in Sleman Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Abstract Organic farming is a combination of conventional agriculture developed with innovation and science, adopting the principles of health, ecology, justice, and protection of the environment. Semi-organic rice farming refers to the transition from conventional to organic rice farming. Semi-organic rice farming is riskier due to the soil’s unstable fertility. This research aimed to determine the production risk in semi-organic rice and analyze the factors affecting that risk. Since Sleman Regency, specifically Seyegan District, is home to a thriving organic rice, the study took place here. A total of 100 respondents were taken using proportional random sampling. The production risk of semi-organic rice was analyzed using the coefficient of variation. The factors influencing the production risk were examined using the Cobb-Douglas production function. The results revealed that semi-organic rice carried high production risk, with a coefficient of variation higher than 0.5. Land area and land status influenced the production risk of semi-organic rice. The wider the implementation of semi-organic rice farming, the greater the production risk. Semi-organic rice farming on own land possessed a smaller risk than non-owned land.

Climate change and agriculture nexus in Bangladesh: Evidence from ARDL and ECM techniques

The erratic weather puts farming households of Bangladesh at high production risk with significant consequences on food production, income, and livelihood. This study attempts to find the effect of various climate change indicators on agriculture in Bangladesh over the period 1980–2014. The study used the ARDL bounds testing approach to assess the long-run associations and the Granger causality test to determine the causal relationships between the regressors and dependent variables. The outcomes revealed that the first lag of agricultural value-added, second lag of carbon emissions, and average rainfall have a positive impact while the first lag of carbon has negative and significant impacts on agricultural production in the long run; in the short run-past realizations of carbon emission have a negative and significant impact on agricultural value-added. Additionally, the results show a unidirectional causality from carbon emission to agricultural output, agricultural output to average rainfall, and agricultural output to energy consumption. The study fills the gap in the climate change literature by applying the ARDL method to establish the nexus between climate change and agricultural output in Bangladesh.

Decomposition mechanisms of nuclear-grade cationic exchange resin by advanced oxidation processes: Statistical molecular fragmentation model and DFT calculations

The treatment and disposal of radioactive waste are presently facing great challenges. Spent ion exchange resins have become a focus of attention due to their high production and serious environmental risks. In this paper, a simplified model of cationic exchange resin is proposed, and the degradation processes of cationic resin monomer initiated by hydroxyl radicals (·OH) are clarified by combining statistical molecular fragmentation (SMF) model and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The prediction of active sites indicates that the S-O bonds and the C-S bond of the sulfonic group are more likely to react during the degradation. The meta-position of the sulfonic group on the benzene ring is the most active site, and the benzene ring without the sulfonic group has a certain reactivity. The C11-C14 and C17-C20 bonds, on the carbon skeleton, are the most easily broken. It is also found that dihydroxy addition and elimination reactions play a major role in the process of desulfonation, carbon skeleton cleavage and benzene ring separation. The decomposition mechanisms found through the combination of physical models and chemical calculations, provide theoretical guidance for the treatment of complex polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

Risk Management in Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises: An Empirical Analysis of SMEs Dried Fish in Bengkulu Province

Highlight Research Most businesses, including dried fish processing, are decided and conducted under conditions of uncertainty Each type of fish that is processed has different risks, both in terms of the source, level, and impact of the risk Fish processing SMEs in Bengkulu Province face moderate business risk on all sources of risk, except production risk Three important strategies to prevent high production risk, namely, the formation of joint business groups, the introduction of business risk insurance, and the downstream processing of processed dried fish products Abstract Every business always faces risks, including micro, small, and medium enterprises processing dried fish. Thus, it is crucial to examine the risk's sources, impacts, and response to risk. This research aimed to analyze the risk management process by identifying the risk sources, analyze the probabilities and risk effects, and design alternative strategies to prevent and control business risk that might be faced by MSMEs dried fish in Bengkulu Province. A total of 273 dried fish processing MSMEs were surveyed and interviewed. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and risk management approach. The main risk faced by dried fish producers was the production, included the raw material availability, input prices, and output prices. Each type of dried fish had different probability of risk occurrence where Kerong, Teri, and Gaguk had a high probability of risk occurrence despite their low impact on the scarcity of raw material availability. Moreover, Teri, Kepala Batu, and Bleberan had a high probability and impact risk in the input price. Considering the output price, only Kepala Batu is observed to have the probability and risk impact. Three strategies were designed to prevent and control risk, namely the establishment of joint business groups, introduction of business risk insurance, and downstream processing of dried fish products. SME fish processing does not encounter significant business risks. All risk sources are still regarded as moderate, with the exception of the production risk, which has a high-risk level.

Strawberry Cultivar Evaluation for Fall-planted High Tunnel System

Locally produced strawberries (Fragaria ×ananassa) have outstanding market potential. But strawberry production has been decreasing in the north-central United States, partly because of high production risks associated with the traditional matted-row system. The annual plasticulture system attracts attention but its low yield limits the wide adoption of the production system in the north-central United States. High tunnels are widely used to extend strawberry seasons worldwide, but the system was not fully explored in the United States. Although the benefits of growing strawberries in high tunnels were recognized, information on suitable strawberry cultivars specific for the fall-planted high tunnel production system is limited. A wide range of short-day and day-neutral strawberry cultivars, including recently released cultivars, were evaluated in the fall-planted annual plasticulture high tunnel systems for three seasons. Averaged among cultivars, the marketable yields were 1.96, 1.35, and 2.27 lb/plant for 2015–16, 2019–20, and 2020–21 seasons, respectively. The combined use of high tunnels and floating rowcovers created favorable microclimate conditions that led to high yields. Florida Radiance, San Andreas, Chandler, and Rocco were the top-yielding cultivars. Besides Chandler, the other top-yielding cultivars entered peak harvest in the second half of April. Harvests ended at the end of May or early June. All cultivars reached the US Department of Agriculture standard for total soluble solids in all three seasons, although Camino Real, FL Radiance, and Sweet Sensation consistently had relatively lower sugar content. Considering a warm-season crop could grow in high tunnels before or after strawberry, a diversified cropping system involving strawberry and other vegetables is highly valuable for high tunnel production systems in the north-central United States. This study did not compare cultivars’ resistance to diseases, but it should be a critical factor in selecting cultivars. Future studies are also warranted to evaluate the effects of incorporating soil treatments and cover cropping for suppressing diseases in the soil-based high tunnel system. Sustainable management strategies to control two-spotted spider mites (Tetranychus urticae) are also crucial in successfully using the system in the north-central United States.

Application of the “Double Maturation Raisonnée” (DMR) method for quality wine production in Badacsony, Hungary

New grape growing technologies are needed to face the global warming and climate change, especially for the production of high-quality wines from late harvested grapes, which in standalone involved in a high production risk. The DMR technology was applied to the production of late harvested wine specialities in 2012-2021 for 4 white and 2 red wine varieties. The experiments were carried out in 4 replicates per variety and per year, measuring yield, quality parameters and visual inspection of Botrytis infection and withering. The results show that, in accordance with international literature, the DMR method significantly decreased the yield of all varieties, while the must and titratable acidity significantly increased. The advantage of the method was evaluated as a reduction of infection in years of hard Botrytis infection. In conclusion, the DMR method can be used to produce wine specialities of residual sugar content with a lower risk.

Production–Living–Ecological Risk Assessment and Corresponding Strategies in China’s Provinces under Climate Change Scenario

In the context of the increasing frequency of natural disasters caused by climate change in recent years, rational territorial spatial planning must pay attention to production–living–ecological (PLE) risks under climate change scenarios. In this study, a method synthesizing the Box–Cox transformation and area weighted averaging is established for characterizing the PLE risks in China’s provinces, which are divided into three zones to cope with PLE risks. Further, targeted strategies from the perspective of the disaster-induced factors and disaster-affected objects are explored for the regions within the different zones. The results show that the regions with a high production risk are mainly distributed in Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong, with an index between 0.80 and 1.00; the regions with a high living risk are concentrated in Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong, and Hainan, with an index exceeding 0.72; and the regions with a high ecological risk are concentrated in Guangxi, Ningxia, and Yunnan, with an index exceeding 0.50. The overall PLE risk is high along the southeastern coast, intermediate in central and western China, and low on the Tibetan Plateau. From the A to C zones, the number of risk types and intensity of risks requiring attention gradually decrease. For the category A zone, recommended measures include the construction of disaster risk monitoring and early warning systems for coastal cities and major grain-producing regions, the development of urban ecological protection zones, and the adjustment of economic and energy structures, etc. Production and living risks are central to the category B zone, while ecological and production risks are central to the category C zone. This study can provide theoretical support for China’s scientific development of land planning and the realization of a beautiful China.

Potato Fluctuation and Risk Preference of Potato Farming in the Bromo Plateau, Indonesia

Potato farming in Indonesia is performed in the highlands, has a high production risk due to sloping land topography and steep slopes. In addition, low managerial ability in responding to sources of production risk results in the input allocation producing non-optimal production. This research aims to identify production fluctuation and farmers’ risk preferences, measure the level of technical efficiency, and determine the effect of risk preference on technical efficiency. The respondents in this study are 83 farmers. The Just and Pope risk function is used with a utility function approach to finding farmers’ risk preferences. The stochastic Frontier Cobb Douglas processes technical efficiency measurements. While to find out the influence of the factors that influence efficiency, Tobit regression is used. The analysis shows that the respondent’s behave risk-takers amounted to 62.65%. Respondents have not yet reached technical efficiency with an average level of technical efficiency of 0.774. Education, frequency of counseling and training, the application of terrace systems have a significant positive effect on technical efficiency, while land slope has a significant negative impact. Risk preference isn’t affected by technical efficiency and shows positive signs.

ANALISIS RISIKO PRODUKSI DAN RISIKO PENDAPATAN PADA USAHATANI PADI DI KECAMATAN BAURENO KABUPATEN BOJONEGORO

Rice is one of the leading commodities for Baureno District, Bojonegoro Regency. Along with high revenue potential, farmers working in this area also have to face various agricultural risks. This study aims to analyze the production risk and income risk of rice farming. The study was conducted in Baureno District, Bojonegoro Regency, involving 55 farmers as respondents who were selected by simple random sampling. The level of production risk and farm income is calculated by the coefficient of variation analysis. The results of this study showed that rice farming in Baureno sub-district has high production risk and income risk, as indicated by the analysis of the coefficient of variation on production risk of 0.584 and income risk of 0.626. Keywords: Production risk, income, rice

Returns to Wheat Research, Varietal Adoption and Turnover Rates and Wheat Production Risks in Kenya

A lot of public funds have been used for investment in wheat research in Kenya. The concern is whether it is worthwhile to continue investing. The problem is there is no information on what returns to investments have been achieved to guide the continued allocation of resources to wheat research. To address this problem, this paper seeks to estimate returns to wheat research investments in Kenya, and the wheat varietal adoption and turnover rates that influence it. The Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) model was applied to estimate the returns to wheat research, in terms of three indicators: Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Adoption index was used to estimate wheat varietal adoption rates (VAR). The area-weighted average variety age (WAVA) was used to estimate the varietal turnover rate (VTR). The Five-Point Likert scale model was used in assessing production risks. A field survey was used for data collection in selected wheat-producing Counties of Kenya. The results generated were a BCR of 1.47, an NPV of 23.31 million Kenya Shillings, an IRR of 41%. The VAR was 42% and VTR was 15.65 years. The main wheat production risks were output price fluctuations, seed availability, pests, and diseases in that order of ranking. In conclusion, return on investments in wheat research is positive, though relatively low compared to other countries, largely due to low varietal adoption and turnover rates and prevalence of high production risks. The recommendation is that to improve returns to wheat research in Kenya, varietal adoption and turnover rates should be improved and production risks should be minimized or eliminated.

Determinants of crop choice decisions under risk: A case study on the revival of cocoa farming in the Forest-Savannah transition zone of Ghana

The revival of cocoa farming in the Forest-Savannah Transition Zone (FSTZ) of Ghana despite high production risk raises questions on the factors underlying it, and whether the renewed interest in cocoa can be sustained. This paper examines the reasons that underlie households’ decision to farm cocoa or otherwise in the FSTZ, and how risk perceptions, demographic factors and livelihood assets predict such crop choice decisions. Methods of data collection include household surveys and key informant interviews. Four hundred and eight household heads and 32 key informants were interviewed in 12 farming communities. Findings indicate divergent crop choice decisions on cocoa among farming households. While market security generally created a strong incentive for cocoa farming, some households exhibited risk aversion by avoiding or abandoning cocoa farming. The decision to farm cocoa was negatively predicted by perceptions of drought and lack of money as the most severe risk factors of cocoa farming, the sex of the household head (being a female) and lack of land ownership and social network with cocoa farmers. Currently, it appears the renewed interest in cocoa farming can be sustained, especially considering market uncertainties for alternative crops (cashew and food crops). This may, however, not be the case in the long term. More households are likely to avoid or abandon cocoa farming if climate and food security risks should worsen as projected, and more so if the cashew market is stabilised by government. Cocoa investment programmes in the FSTZ aiming at long-term sustainability ought to target households that are more likely to farm cocoa under high production risk. Such programmes may also attract new farmers and sustain their interest in cocoa farming by enhancing their access to land, capital, and irrigation facilities (for managing drought). At the moment, crop diversification (towards cashew and food crops) rather than crop switching is needed to manage the climate, market and food security risks confronting farmers. Overall, the paper contributes to a better understanding of the determinants of farmers’ crop choice decisions on cocoa in the context of multiple risks.

Groundwater use and sustainability in Punjab Agriculture: Insights from a field survey

Paddy is a water-intensive crop, and its cultivation is the prime cause of the depletion of groundwater resources in Punjab. We survey paddy farmers’ crop choices, water use, and opinions on the causes of the depletion of groundwater resources. To make long-term groundwater use sustainable, farmers can adopt water saving technologies and practices and diversify crops. But adoption is abysmal, and diversification into alternative crops entails high production and marketing risks. To improve adoption, the government must promote water saving technologies and practices. And assured marketing at remunerative prices is a prerequisite for crop diversification.

Sustainable intensification of wheat production under smallholder farming systems in Burera, Musanze and Nyamagabe districts of Rwanda

Abstract The productivity of wheat is low on smallholder farms in Rwanda. Although mineral fertiliser use is being promoted as a sustainable intensification (SI) pathway, little is known about the nutrient use efficiency and profitability of various fertiliser inputs in Burera, Musanze and Nyamagabe districts of Rwanda. The objective of this study was to assess the use of combinations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), zinc (Zn) and boron (B) in wheat production in terms of nutrients management specifically, crop yield, production risk, input use efficiency and economic returns on smallholder farms. The study was conducted in three wheat-growing regions of Rwanda (i.e., Nyamagabe, Musanze and Burera districts) with contrasting soil conditions. The treatments included combinations of different levels of N (0, 30, 60, 90 and 120 kg ha−1) with P (0, 7.5, 15 and 22.5 kg ha−1) and K (10, 20 and 30 kg ha−1) and the control with no applied nutrients. A diagnostic treatment composed of 90 kg N, 15 kg P, 20 kg K, 10 kg Mg, 2.5 kg Zn and 0.5 kg B ha−1 was also included. Mean grain yield and its variability, rainfall use efficiency (RUE), agronomic use efficiency (AE) of N and P and the value cost ratios (VCRs) were calculated to assess the sustainability of the nutrient rates. Across all sites, wheat grain yield and RUE increased with increase in N rates up to 90 kg N ha−1, beyond which no further increase was observed. The highest wheat yield (5.5 t ha−1) and RUE (6.6 kg ha−1 mm−1) with the lowest production risk (coefficient of variation [CV] = 20%) were recorded in the diagnostic treatment. Although the highest AEN and AEP were recorded at lower N and P levels, the CVs of VCR were high (>64%), indicating higher production risk to wheat farmers. In all cases, an optimum VCR (5.6), with the lowest CV (44.4%), was recorded in the diagnostic treatment. We conclude that application of 90 kg N, 15 kg P, 20 kg K, 10 kg Mg, 2.5 kg Zn and 0.1 kg B can guarantee a more SI of wheat production in Burera, Musanze and Nyamagabe districts of Rwanda.

Feasibility and Risk Production of Shallot Farming in Demak, Central Java, Indonesia

Shallot is a great prospect for farmers in Demak Regency. Shallot farmers in Demak Regency cultivated 2 different varieties which Bauji variety was claimed to be more profitable than the Bima variety. In addition it was known that there were differences in the treatment of the two varieties. The purpose of this study is to analyze feability and production risk of shallot farming. This research was conducted in Pasir Village and Kotakan Village, Demak Regency. Data collection was carried out by direct interview with 50 farmers by census and 50 farmer respondents randomly. To analyze, to use the formula of R / C, and coefficient of variation using the independent sample t-test method in the SPSS application. The results of the research showed that both farms were equally feasible to be cultivated, but the Bauji variety farming had a higher production risk than the bima variety.

Dual-Purpose Cultivation as an Agro-Economic Approach for Farmers. A Case Study of Beans

Different types of bean cultivars are cultivated by farmers worldwide, but some of these cultivars are capable of dual-purpose cultivation with the aim of simultaneously harvesting dry grains and green pods in one growing season. So, in order to assess the possibility of dual-purpose cultivation of beans, determine the yield of green pods, dry grain yield, product value and Marginal Gross Benefit, 9 lines were evaluated in a split plot experiment based on a randomized complete block design with three replications in 2016 and 2017 in the seed and plant improvement institute, Karaj, Iran. The results showed that there was a significant difference between the lines for the studied traits. In dual-purpose cultivation of beans, line KS940144 had the highest yield (6983 kg ha-1) and value (2444 US$) of green pods. Line KS920159 had the highest yield (2068 kg ha-1) and value (2440 US$) of dry grains. In view point of the value of the product (green pods and dry grains), although the Dorsa cultivar showed the highest yield and value than dual-purpose cultivation of lines, but, because of climate change and high production risk for cultivating single-purpose cultivars, the dual-purpose cultivation of some of selected lines, for example KS940144 and KS10073 lines, could be have an appropriate income and sustainability for farmers.

Improvement of mechanisms for innovative development of agriculture in Turkestan region in the context of pandemic

The article presents elements and ways to improve the mechanism of innovative development of agriculture in the Turkestan region in the context of the pandemic. Agriculture is the most important branch of agriculture, which affects the state of food security of the country and serves to develop the raw material base for the agroindustrial complex. However, the worldwide pandemic has had a significant negative impact on the development of agriculture in Kazakhstan, including the development of agriculture. This effect was observed in all sectors of the industry, therefore no doubt that the development of the agrarian economy of the Turkestan region, and accordingly obtaining effective results is impossible without innovative development in the sector and improving the mechanisms of development planning of crop production. The features of the modern development of domestic agriculture are the deterioration of its material and technical base, low investment potential of the industry, high production and financial risks, unsatisfactory condition of land, underdeveloped seed production system, as well as unbalanced intersectoral exchange. All this indicates the need for timely justification of priority areas for planning innovative development of crop production, as well as the need for a comprehensive economic assessment of their implementation. It requires in-depth study of methodological issues of implementation of technical, technological and biological innovations available on the regional, national and global agri-food markets.At the same time, during a pandemic, there is a need to change the functions of government bodies in the field of agriculture. In this regard, much attention is paid to improving the management tools of local executive bodies in the field of agriculture.

Maintaining content innovation in an industry with unpredictable returns: a portfolio approach to movie production

ABSTRACT The movie industry is typically characterized by high production risk and unpredictable returns. Innovating in this kind of environment is very risky and calls for smart strategies of risk diversification. Hollywood is a recognized content innovation leader in the global movie industry, but the recent tendency for major production companies in the industry is to reduce risk by imitating previously successful productions rather than maintaining an innovation drive. We analyse here an alternative possible strategy based on risk diversification, and show how such strategy is viable for the Hollywood system whereas it is less viable for alternative, less market oriented movie production systems. We study cost/return data for 909 films from the US movie market 1988–99 by the five major US studios, and 118 films from the Italian market 1995–2003 by the three major Italian producers. Three different strategies of portfolio composition are tested, in a comparative perspective, in the US and Italy production and market environments. We find that portfolio diversification strategies are always successful in reducing operating risk in the US, but only partially so in Italy due to major differences in market size and players’ characteristics, and ultimately to differences in entrepreneurial culture.

Site and Management Effects on Grain Yield and Yield Variability of Rainfed Lowland Rice in the Kilombero Floodplain of Tanzania

In East Africa, smallholder farmers produce rainfed lowland rice mainly in floodplains. Low nitrogen contents of the predominant Fluvisols and highly variable hydrological conditions result in low yields and large yield variations, and hence, result in high production risks for farmers. We investigated crop management strategies aimed at increasing yield and reducing yield variability. The field trials were carried out in the Kilombero floodplain near Ifakara in Tanzania, in three hydrological zones (potentially drought-prone fringe, favorable middle and submergence-prone center positions) over three years. The study compared farmers’ management practices (no field levelling and bunding, no fertilizer input), with the effect of bunding and levelling alone, or in combination with mineral N use at 0 (bunding), 60 (recommended rate) and 120 kg + 60 kg PK ha−1 (attainable yield). Rice mean grain yields (averaged over the four treatments) were higher in the fringe (6.5 t ha−1) and the middle (5.7 t ha−1) than in the center positions (4.6 t ha−1). Farmers’ practice resulted in lowest yield (3.0 t ha−1) and highest yield variability, with an adjusted coefficient of variation (aCV) of up to 91% between fields, years and positions. Simple bunding of the plots and field levelling increased yields by 40% above farmers’ practice, particularly in the fringe and middle positions, while reducing yield variation (aCV of 36–61%). Mineral N application resulted in the highest yields (7.0 t ha−1) and further reduced yield variation (aCV of 14–27%). However, only in bunded fields of the floodplain fringe rice could benefit from N application beyond 60 kg ha−1, while mineral N use efficiency was lower in middle and center positions. Improved crop management options are most beneficial in floodplain fringe positions, where they can increase yields and reduce production risks. Due to low yield, high production risks and poor responsiveness to management interventions, the center may be taken out of rice production and could be considered for future use as protection zones.

Low residue apple production: higher production risk and lower profit

Consumers ask for a reduction of pesticide use in horticulture and an elimination of pesticide residues in fruits in order to minimize the environmental impact and the risk for human health. Fruit growers need research results and advice to establish sustainable production systems that reduce the use and the residues of pesticides. Agroscope tested and evaluated a low residue strategy which allows the production of residue-free apples by maintaining high yield and quality standards. However, the evaluation of the economical sustainability show that the new strategy is linked to higher production risk and lower profit than the integrated production and the organic production strategy. A price premium for low-residue production, which is justified by environmental advantages, could have a positive effect on the economical sustainability of the low residue strategy.

The mechanism for assessing the personnel professional competencies at a loading and transport enterprise

The article describes the mechanism for assessing the personal and communicative professional competencies of personnel, corresponding to labor functions and the development strategy of a loading and transport enterprise. According to the results of the questionnaire of 21 respondents 44 meaningful competences were chosen from 257 proposed competencies. It is established that the use of the communicative competencies of personnel due to the emergence of a synergistic effect is more productive. The effectiveness of the work of the industrial control of labor protection department was defined within the range 58 - 98%. However, high production risks of incidents give rise to concerns, since during 23.7% of working time the labor functions are performed with violations of the requirements of professional standards. The results of the professional competences ranking are presented and distribution histograms on the importance of competences for improving labor productivity and reducing the risk of incidents in a loading and transport enterprise are constructed. The algorithm for sampling reduction by means of identification of the most significant competences is developed at loss of the minimum volume of the information. The probability of significant professional competencies for an enterprise exceeds 0.9.