High-latitude Continents Research Articles

Distinguishing Impacts on Winter Temperatures in Northern Mid–High-Latitude Continents during Multiyear and Single-Year La Niña Events: A Modeling Study

Abstract Utilizing a 2200-yr CESM1 preindustrial simulation, this study examines the influence of property distinctions between single-year (SY) and multiyear (MY) La Niñas on their respective impacts on winter surface air temperatures across mid–high-latitude continents in the model, focusing on specific teleconnection mechanisms. Distinct impacts were identified in four continent sectors: North America, Europe, Western Siberia (W-Siberia), and Eastern Siberia (E-Siberia). The typical impacts of simulated SY La Niña events are featured with anomalous warming over Europe and W&E-Siberia and anomalous cooling over North America. Simulated MY La Niña events reduce the typical anomalous cooling over North America and the typical anomalous warming over W&E-Siberia but intensify the typical anomalous warming over Europe. The distinct impacts of simulated MY La Niñas are more prominent during their first winter than during the second winter, except over W-Siberia, where the distinct impact is more pronounced during the second winter. These overall distinct impacts in the CESM1 simulation can be attributed to the varying sensitivities of these continent sectors to the differences between MY and SY La Niñas in their intensity, location, and induced sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean. These property differences were linked to the distinct climate impacts through the Pacific North America, North Atlantic Oscillation, Indian Ocean–induced wave train, and tropical North Atlantic–induced wave train mechanisms. The modeling results are then validated against observations from 1900 to 2022 to identify disparities in the CESM1 simulation.

Obliquity-forced aquifer-eustasy during the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world

The mechanisms of short-term (105–106 years) and high-magnitude (>20 m) sea-level oscillations have long been debated involving glacio- and aquifer-eustasy, largely owing to the sparse robust evidence for the presence and significance of aquifer-eustasy, and lack of knowledge about the hydrological dynamics behind it. Non-marine/continental greenhouse archives (e.g., lake level) and their temporal correlation to marine successions (e.g., sea level) could provide clues to aquifer-eustasy. The Songliao Basin (SLB) in Northeast China is one of the largest Mesozoic terrestrial inland basins and provides a terrestrial archive of nearly all Cretaceous successions. The greenhouse late Santonian–early Campanian lower Nenjiang Formation (K2n1+2), recovered from three boreholes in the SLB, provides a unique opportunity for validating and decoding aquifer-eustasy. Initially, the cyclostratigraphy of logging gamma ray (GR) and thorium (Th) series from three boreholes was implemented, which in conjunction with precise geochronological (U/Pb zircon) ages renewed the chronology framework of the SLB. Using the astronomically tuned GR and Th datasets, the lake level of the SLB, which was recovered from sedimentary noise modeling and presented as a proxy for the water table of the groundwater reservoir, showed a clear out-of-phase relationship with the coeval sea level, validating the aquifer-eustasy hypothesis. The lake level of SLB shows prominent ∼1.2 Myr cycles and a well-coupled relationship with sea level and obliquity modulation, indicating that orbital obliquity drove the lake level and modulated water exchange between ocean and continent during the Cretaceous greenhouse period. Strong precipitation events indicated by negative excursions of ostracod δ18O correlate well with high lake levels, high obliquity, and low sea level, suggesting that more moisture was precipitated into the high-latitude continents during obliquity modulation maxima, consequently recharging the aquifer and raising the lake level while drawing down the sea level and vice versa. The close correlation between the reported marine incursion layers and the lowstand of sea level casts a doubt on the marine incursion hypothesis in the SLB; thus, more work is needed to reconcile this paradox. Overall, this study provides the first robust geological evidence for aquifer-eustasy and decodes its role in Cretaceous short-term eustasy.

The Budget of Local Available Potential Energy of Low-Frequency Eddies in Northern Hemispheric Winter

AbstractLow-frequency (LF) transient eddies (intraseasonal eddies with time scales longer than 10 days) are increasingly found to be important in large-scale atmospheric circulation, high-impact climate events, and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts. In this study, the features and maintenance of available potential energy of LF eddies (LF EAPE), which denote LF temperature fluctuations, have been investigated. Our study shows that wintertime LF EAPE, with greater amplitude than that of the extensively studied high-frequency (HF) eddies, exhibits distinct horizontal and vertical structures. Different from HF eddies, whose action centers are over midlatitude oceans, the LF EAPE is most active in the continents in the midlatitudes, as well as the subpolar region with shallower vertical structure. By diagnosing the derived energy budget of LF EAPE, we find that, with the strong background temperature gradient in mid- and high-latitude continents (e.g., coast regions along the Greenland, Barents, and Kara Seas), baroclinic generation is the major source of LF EAPE. The generated LF EAPE in the subpolar region is transported downstream and southward to midlatitude continents via background flow. The generated LF EAPE is also dissipated by HF eddies, damped by diabatic effects, and converted to LF EKE via vertical motions. The above energy budget, together with the barotropic dynamics revealed by previous works, suggests multiple energy sources and thus complicated dynamics of LF variabilities.

Stable Isotope Evidence for Recent Global Warming Hiatus

Global mean surface air temperature (SAT) has remained relative stagnant since the late 1990s, a phenomenon known as global warming hiatus. Despite widespread concern and discussion, there is still an open question about whether this hiatus exists, partly due to the biases in observations. The stable isotopic composition of precipitation in mid- and high-latitude continents closely tracks change of the air temperature, providing an alternative to evaluate global warming hiatus. Here we use the long-term precipitation δ18O records available to investigate changes in SAT over the period 1970–2016. The results reveal slight decline in δ18O anomaly from 1998 to 2012, with a slope of −0.000 4‰ decade−1 which is significantly different from that of pre-1998 interval This downward δ18O anomaly trend suggests a slight cooling for about −0.001 oC decade−1, corroborating the recent hiatus in global warming. Our work provides new evidence for recent global warming hiatus and highlights the potential of utilizing precipitation isotope for tracking climate changes.

Seasonal and Spatial Distribution of Atmospheric Tritiated Water Vapor in Mainland China.

To reveal the distribution of atmospheric tritium water (HTO) vapor and provide a baseline for tritium pollution control, a subnational survey was conducted in mainland China. As the largest study on HTO vapor in China that has ever been formally reported, this study provides a macroimpression of the atmospheric HTO specific activity from March 2017 to March 2018. A total of 102 passive samplers were deployed at 34 sites in 30 provinces to determine the seasonal and spatial distributions of HTO vapor. In general, the HTO specific activity in the atmosphere ranged from lower than the minimum detectable activity (0.18 Bq·L-1) to 5.5 Bq·L-1. Spatially, the specific activity of HTO was positively correlated to the latitude and the distance to proximal coastline. Seasonally, significantly higher HTO specific activities were observed in spring and relatively lower in summer. Based on correlation analysis, the atmospheric HTO distributions were considered to be the consequence of combined factors of the stratospheric-tropospheric net mass flux, the distance from the tropopause to the ground, the fraction of air mass that originated from ocean re-evaporation and long-distance transport from high-latitude continents.

Suppression of Cold Weather Events over High-Latitude Continents in Warm Climates

AbstractRecent studies, using Lagrangian single-column atmospheric models, have proposed that in warmer climates more low clouds would form as maritime air masses advect into Northern Hemisphere high-latitude continental interiors during winter (DJF). This increase in low cloud amount and optical thickness could reduce surface radiative cooling and suppress Arctic air formation events, partly explaining both the warm winter high-latitude continental interior climate and frost-intolerant species found there during the Eocene and the positive lapse-rate feedback in future Arctic climate change scenarios. Here the authors examine the robustness of this low-cloud mechanism in a three-dimensional atmospheric model that includes large-scale dynamics. Different warming scenarios are simulated under prescribed CO2 and sea surface temperature, and the sensitivity of winter temperatures and clouds over high-latitude continental interior to mid- and high-latitude sea surface temperatures is examined. Model results show that winter 2-m temperatures on extreme cold days increase about 50% faster than the winter mean temperatures and the prescribed SST. Low cloud fraction and surface longwave cloud radiative forcing also increase in both the winter mean state and on extreme cold days, consistent with previous Lagrangian air-mass studies, but with cloud fraction increasing for different reasons than proposed by previous work. At high latitudes, the cloud longwave warming effect dominates the shortwave cooling effect, and the net cloud radiative forcing at the surface tends to warm high-latitude land but cool midlatitude land. This could contribute to the reduced meridional temperature gradient in warmer climates and help explain the greater warming of winter cold extremes relative to winter mean temperatures.

Mid-Miocene climatic optimum: Clay mineral evidence from the red clay succession, Longzhong Basin, Northern China

The Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) is one of Earth's most recent prolonged warming events, recorded in both the deep ocean and mid- to high-latitude continents. Thick Cenozoic deposits in the Longzhong Basin, Northwest China, provide great potential for characterizing the MMCO, but have not been well documented. In this study, we carry out clay mineralogical and geochemical analyses of the Miocene red clay succession from the eastern Longzhong Basin, employing X-ray diffraction and geochemistry, and discuss the climatic characteristics of the MMCO. The results reveal that the MMCO occurred at 16–14Ma and is associated with relatively high kaolinite and smectite contents, high illite crystallinity values and kaolinite/(illite+chlorite) ratio, and lower chlorite and illite contents. These clay mineral assemblages confirm a warm and moist climate during the MMCO. Furthermore, the SiO2/Al2O3 ratio declined with increasing Al2O3, indicative of greater precipitation and intensified weathering during this period. When compared with local and global records, we find that our clay mineral records reflect regional climatic change superimposed upon global climatic trends during the MMCO. It is suggested that a high concentration of CO2, and associated global warming, may have been responsible for the MMCO, rather than the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal—exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface–hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

The role of diminishing Arctic sea ice in increased winter snowfall over northern high-latitude continents in a warming environment

Large parts of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls for the past few winters, which have been linked to rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. Although the role of reduction in Arctic sea ice in recent cold and snowy winters is still a matter of debate, there is considerable interest in determining whether such an emerging climate feedback will persist into the future in a warming environment. Here we show that increased winter snowfall would be a robust feature throughout the 21st century in the northeastern Europe, central and northern Asia and northern North America as projected by current-day climate model simulations under the medium mitigation scenario. We argue that the increased winter snowfall in these regions during the 21st century is due primarily to the diminishing autumn Arctic sea ice (largely externally forced). Variability of the winter Arctic Oscillation (dominant mode of natural variability in the Northern Hemisphere), in contrast, has little contribution to the increased winter snowfall. This is evident in not only the multi-model ensemble mean, but also each individual model (not model-dependent). Our findings reinforce suggestions that a strong sea ice-snowfall feedback might have emerged, and would be enhanced in coming decades, increasing the chance of heavy snowfall events in northern high-latitude continents.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Skills of Near-Surface Air Temperature in the CMIP5 Decadal Hindcast Experiments

Abstract This study explores the seasonal-to-interannual near-surface air temperature (TAS) prediction skills of state-of-the-art climate models that were involved in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) decadal hindcast/forecast experiments. The experiments are initialized in either November or January of each year and integrated for up to 10 years, providing a good opportunity for filling the gap between seasonal and decadal climate predictions. The long-lead multimodel ensemble (MME) prediction is evaluated for 1981–2007 in terms of the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean-squared skill score (MSSS), which combines ACC and conditional bias, with respect to observations and reanalysis data, paying particular attention to the seasonal dependency of the global-mean and equatorial Pacific TAS predictions. The MME shows statistically significant ACCs and MSSSs for the annual global-mean TAS for up to two years, mainly because of long-term global warming trends. When the long-term trends are removed, the prediction skill is reduced. The prediction skills are generally lower in boreal winters than in other seasons regardless of lead times. This lack of winter prediction skill is attributed to the failure of capturing the long-term trend and interannual variability of TAS over high-latitude continents in the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast to global-mean TAS, regional TAS over the equatorial Pacific is predicted well in winter. This is mainly due to a successful prediction of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In most models, the wintertime ENSO index is reasonably well predicted for at least one year in advance. The sensitivity of the prediction skill to the initialized month and method is also discussed.

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming

High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates.

To what extent could water isotopic measurements help us understand model biases in the water cycle over Western Siberia

Abstract. We evaluate the isotopic composition of water vapor and precipitation simulated by the LMDZ (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom) GCM (General Circulation Model) over Siberia using several data sets: TES (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) and GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) satellite observations of tropospheric water vapor, GNIP (Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation) and SNIP (Siberian Network for Isotopes in Precipitation) precipitation networks, and daily, in situ measurements of water vapor and precipitation at the Kourovka site in Western Siberia. LMDZ captures the spatial, seasonal and daily variations reasonably well, but it underestimates humidity (q) in summer and overestimates δD in the vapor and precipitation in all seasons. The performance of LMDZ is put in the context of other isotopic models from the SWING2 (Stable Water Intercomparison Group phase 2) models. There is significant spread among models in the simulation of δD, and of the δD-q relationship. This confirms that δD brings additional information compared to q only. We specifically investigate the added value of water isotopic measurements to interpret the warm and dry bias featured by most GCMs over mid and high latitude continents in summer. The analysis of the slopes in δD-q diagrams and of processes controlling δD and q variations suggests that the cause of the dry bias could be either a problem in the large-scale advection transporting too much dry and warm air from the south, or too strong boundary-layer mixing. However, δD-q diagrams using the available data do not tell the full story. Additional measurements would be needed, or a more sophisticated theoretical framework would need to be developed.

Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming

In this the second of a two-part study, we examine the physical mechanisms responsible for the increasing contrast of the land–sea surface air temperature (SAT) in summertime over the Far East, as observed in recent decades and revealed in future climate projections obtained from a series of transient warming and sensitivity experiments conducted under the umbrella of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. On a global perspective, a strengthening of land–sea SAT contrast in the transient warming simulations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is attributed to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). However, in boreal summer, the strengthened contrast over the Far East is reproduced only by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. In response to SST increase alone, the tropospheric warming over the interior of the mid- to high-latitude continents including Eurasia are weaker than those over the surrounding oceans, leading to a weakening of the land–sea SAT contrast over the Far East. Thus, the increasing contrast and associated change in atmospheric circulation over East Asia is explained by CO2-induced continental warming. The degree of strengthening of the land–sea SAT contrast varies in different transient warming scenarios, but is reproduced through a combination of the CO2-induced positive and SST-induced negative contributions to the land–sea contrast. These results imply that changes of climate patterns over the land–ocean boundary regions are sensitive to future scenarios of CO2 concentration pathways including extreme cases.

The extremely cold 2009–2010 winter and its relationship with the Arctic oscillation

The Northern-Hemisphere high-latitude continents experienced extremely cold weathers in winter 2009–2010. In the present paper, we show that the cold winter was associated with the activity of the Arctic oscillation (AO), which demonstrated the strongest negative polarity over the past six decades and persisted from December, 2009 to March, 2010. It is found that variations of the surface AO was closely linked to stratospheric polar vortex anomalies, and that the surface AO phases followed downward propagation of stratospheric Northern-Hemisphere Annular mode (NAM) anomalies during the winter. The case of 2009–2010 winter provides us with a typical example that anomalous stratospheric signals can be used to improve skills of long-range weather forecast and intra-seasonal climate prediction in winter time. We also show that the El Nino event, which started developing from May 2009, might contribute the formation of exceptionally negative and persistent AO and stratospheric NAM, particularly over North Pacific and North America.

A secondary organic aerosol formation model considering successive oxidation aging and kinetic condensation of organic compounds: global scale implications

Abstract. The widely used two-product secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation model has been extended in this study to consider the volatility changes of secondary organic gases (SOG) arising from the aging process as well as the kinetic condensation of low volatile SOG (LV-SOG). In addition to semi-volatile SOG (SV-SOG) with saturation vapor pressure at 290 K (C*290) in the range of ~3 ppt–3 ppb and medium-volatile SOG (MV-SOG) with C*290 in the range of ~0.3–300 ppb, we add a third component representing LV-SOG with C*290 below ~3 ppt and design a scheme to transfer MV-SOG to SV-SOG and SV-SOG to LV-SOG associated with oxidation aging. This extended SOA formation model has been implemented in a global aerosol model (GEOS-Chem) and the co-condensation of H2SO4 and LV-SOG on pre-existing particles is explicitly simulated. We show that, over many parts of the continents, LV-SOG concentrations are generally a factor of ~2–20 higher than those of H2SO4 and the kinetic condensation of LV-SOG significantly enhances particle growth rates. Comparisons of the simulated and observed evolution of particle size distributions at a boreal forest site (Hyytiälä, Finland) clearly show that LV-SOG condensation is critical in order to bring the simulations closer to the observations. With the new SOA formation scheme, annual mean SOA mass increases by a factor of 2–10 in many parts of the boundary layer and reaches above 0.5 μg m−3 in most parts of the main continents, improving the agreement with aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) SOA measurements. While the new scheme generally decreases the concentration of condensation nuclei larger than 10 nm by 3–30% in the lower boundary layer as a result of enhanced surface area and reduced nucleation rates, it substantially increases the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei at a water supersaturation ratio of 0.2%, ranging from ~5–20% over a large fraction of oceans and high latitude continents to more than 50% over some parts of South America, Australia, and Indonesia. Our study highlights the importance for global aerosol models to explicitly account for the oxidation aging of SOGs and their contribution to particle growth.

The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century

Abstract The authors investigate the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss at the end of the twenty-first century using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a land surface model. The response was obtained from two 60-yr integrations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice conditions for the late twentieth century (1980–99) and one with that of sea ice conditions for the late twenty-first century (2080–99). In both integrations, a repeating seasonal cycle of SSTs for 1980–99 was prescribed to isolate the impact of projected future sea ice loss. Note that greenhouse gas concentrations remained fixed at 1980–99 levels in both sets of experiments. The twentieth- and twenty-first-century sea ice (and SST) conditions were obtained from ensemble mean integrations of a coupled GCM under historical forcing and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario forcing, respectively. The loss of Arctic sea ice is greatest in summer and fall, yet the response of the net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean is largest in winter. Air temperature and precipitation responses also maximize in winter, both over the Arctic Ocean and over the adjacent high-latitude continents. Snow depths increase over Siberia and northern Canada because of the enhanced winter precipitation. Atmospheric warming over the high-latitude continents is mainly confined to the boundary layer (below ∼850 hPa) and to regions with a strong low-level temperature inversion. Enhanced warm air advection by submonthly transient motions is the primary mechanism for the terrestrial warming. A significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response is found during winter, with a baroclinic (equivalent barotropic) vertical structure over the Arctic in November–December (January–March). This response resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in February only. Comparison with the fully coupled model reveals that Arctic sea ice loss accounts for most of the seasonal, spatial, and vertical structure of the high-latitude warming response to greenhouse gas forcing at the end of the twenty-first century.

Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights

Abstract Global-mean surface temperature is affected by both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. This study is concerned with identifying and removing from global-mean temperatures the signatures of natural climate variability over the period January 1900–March 2009. A series of simple, physically based methodologies are developed and applied to isolate the climate impacts of three known sources of natural variability: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), variations in the advection of marine air masses over the high-latitude continents during winter, and aerosols injected into the stratosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions. After the effects of ENSO and high-latitude temperature advection are removed from the global-mean temperature record, the signatures of volcanic eruptions and changes in instrumentation become more clearly apparent. After the volcanic eruptions are subsequently filtered from the record, the residual time series reveals a nearly monotonic global warming pattern since ∼1950. The results also reveal coupling between the land and ocean areas on the interannual time scale that transcends the effects of ENSO and volcanic eruptions. Globally averaged land and ocean temperatures are most strongly correlated when ocean leads land by ∼2–3 months. These coupled fluctuations exhibit a complicated spatial signature with largest-amplitude sea surface temperature perturbations over the Atlantic Ocean.

Geoengineering: What, how, and for whom?

The Issues and Events report on the viability of geoengineering to counter global warming did not address the ethical issue. I use the following fable to illustrate the point.Once upon a time in an idyllic country, near a small town and a farming community, a rope hung out of the sky. One pull on the rope changed the weather from fine and sunny to cloudy and rainy, and the next pull changed it back. For many years the people cooperated; the farmers used the rains to help grow crops, and the townspeople enjoyed the sunny periods. But there came a time when the townspeople protested the rain and wanted more sunshine. The farmers were concerned about their crops. And so arguments broke out, with a person from the town pulling on the rope, followed quickly by a farmer pulling it again, and they pulled and pulled and … broke the rope.Given that the climate is changing because of inadvertent consequences of human activities, the question arises as to whether efforts should be made to deliberately change climate to counteract the warming. Aside from the wisdom and ability to do such a thing economically, the more basic question is the ethical one of who controls the rope. Who makes the decision on behalf of all humanity and other residents of planet Earth to change the climate deliberately? Climate change is not necessarily bad. The climate has always varied to some degree, and changes have occurred over decades and millennia. Humans and other creatures have adapted to the changes or perished; it is a part of evolution. Changes projected with increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may have some aspects that could be regarded as bad; increased heat waves and wildfires in summer, increased and more intense droughts, heavier rains and risk of flooding, stronger storms, decreases in air quality, and increases in bugs and disease are all likely threats. But in some areas, climates improve, high-latitude continents become more equable, growing seasons are longer, and so on. There are winners and losers. And it is possible to adapt to such changes—at least if the changes occur slowly enough. In other words, key issues are the rate and duration of change, perhaps more so than the nature of the new climate. In that sense, it is the disruptive part of climate change that might be argued as being bad.Given that climate change is not universally condemned, how can anyone justify deliberately acting to change the climate to benefit any particular group, perhaps even a majority? The ethical questions associated with climate manipulation loom so large that some forms of geoengineering are simply unacceptable. The forms that are acceptable include those that reduce emissions and mitigate the rates of change or reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Forms that propose to block sunlight in some fashion, perhaps to emulate a volcanic eruption, would change the hydrological cycle and weather patterns in ways that would be simply unacceptable, even if they were doable. The cost and viability of any such proposals are other major issues, but in my view, they are overwhelmed by the ethical considerations.© 2009 American Institute of Physics.

Indian Monsoon Onset and the Americas Midsummer Drought: Out-of-Equilibrium Responses to Smooth Seasonal Forcing

Abstract Two dominant high-frequency features of Northern Hemisphere summer climatology are examined in an atmosphere–land general circulation model (AGCM): the sudden onset of rains in south Asia, and the midsummer rainfall minimum in the tropical Americas. A control simulation succeeds in capturing these observed features fairly well. A slowed-calendar experiment is performed, to see whether these features are close to equilibrium with seasonally evolving forcings (orbital geometry and SST). The results indicate that some lag (disequilbrium) within the AGCM delays south Asian onset by about a month, from May in the experiment when seasonal forcing evolves extremely slowly to June in the normal, full-speed seasonal cycle. Disequilibrium also acts to delay and limit the amplitude of the Americas midsummer drought, and the associated intrusion of the Atlantic subtropical high into the Intra-Americas Seas’ region. It is hypothesized that early summer (centered on the solstice) temperature over mid- and high-latitude continents, which differs greatly between experiment and control, drives the low-latitude rainfall differences. A more mysterious pole-to-pole, annual-mean, zonal wave-1 difference is also found in the slowed-calendar experiment.

Possible Ozone-Induced Long-Term Changes in Planetary Wave Activity in Late Winter

Using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, decadal trends in planetary wave activity in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (50°–90°N) in late winter and early spring (January–February–March) were studied. Results show that wave activity in both the stratosphere and the troposphere has been largely reduced and exhibits statistically significant downward trends since the 1980s. In the stratosphere, the wave activity is decreased by about 30%, which is mainly due to less Eliassen–Palm (E–P) flux from the troposphere into the stratosphere. In the troposphere, the vertical E–P flux is reduced by about 30%, while equatorward horizontal E–P flux is increased by 130%. This suggests a significant refraction of planetary waves away from the high latitudes. The significant negative trends in wave activity in late winter are in contrast to the authors' previous finding of no significant changes in planetary wave activity in early winter. The timing of the significant decline in wave activity, which starts from the early 1980s and exists only in late winter and springtime, suggests that such a decrease of wave activity is possibly a result of stratospheric ozone depletion in the Arctic. Therefore, a mechanism is proposed whereby Arctic ozone depletion leads to an enhanced meridional temperature gradient near the subpolar stratosphere, strengthening westerly winds. The strengthened winds refract planetary waves toward low latitudes and cause the reduction in wave activity in high latitudes. Decreasing vertical E–P fluxes are found to extend to near the surface. At 850 mb, vertical E–P fluxes have been reduced by about 10% since 1979. Such a reduction in wave activity might be responsible for the observed late-winter and springtime warming over Northern Hemisphere high-latitude continents during the last two decades.