High HIV Prevalence Countries Research Articles

Voluntary medical male circumcision in selected provinces in South Africa: Outcomes from a programmatic setting.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) remains an effective biomedical intervention for HIV prevention in high HIV prevalence countries. In South Africa, United States Agency for International Development VMMC partners provide technical assistance to the Department of Health, at national and provincial levels in support of the establishment of VMMC sites as well as in providing direct VMMC services at site level since April 2012. We describe the outcomes of the Right to Care (RTC) VMMC program implemented in South Africa from 2012 to 2017. This retrospective study was undertaken at RTC supported facilities across six provinces. Young males aged ≥10 years who presented at these facilities from 1 July 2012 to 31 September 2017 were included. Outcomes were VMMC uptake, HIV testing uptake and rate of adverse events (AEs). Using a de-identified observational database of these clients, summary statistics of the demographic characteristics and outcomes were calculated. There were a total 1,001,226 attendees of which 998,213 (99.7%) were offered VMMC and had a median age of 15 years (IQR = 12-23 years). Of those offered VMMC, 99.6% (994,293) consented, 96.7% (965,370) were circumcised and the majority (46.3%) were from Gauteng province. HIV testing uptake was 71% with a refusal rate of 15%. Of the newly diagnosed HIV positives, 64% (6,371 / 9,972) referrals were made. The rate of AEs, defined as bleeding, infection, and insufficient skin removal) declined from 3.26% in 2012 to 1.17% in 2017. There was a reduction in infection-related AEs from 2,448 of the 2,602 adverse events (94.08%) in 2012 to 129 of the 2,069 adverse events (6.23%) in 2017. There was a high VMMC uptake with a decline in AEs over time. Adolescent men contributed the most to the circumcised population, an indication that the young population accesses medical circumcision more. VMMC programs need to implement innovative demand creation strategies to encourage older males (20-34 years) at higher risk of HIV acquisition to get circumcised for immediate impact in reduction of HIV incidence. HIV prevalence in the total population increased with increasing age, notably in clients above 25 years.

Drought, HIV Testing, and HIV Transmission Risk Behaviors: A Population-Based Study in 10 High HIV Prevalence Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Droughts are associated with poor health outcomes and disruption of public health programming. Data on the association between drought and HIV testing and transmission risk behaviors are limited. We combined data from Demographic and Health Surveys from 10 high HIV prevalence sub-Saharan African countries with a high-resolution measure of drought. We estimated the association between drought and recent HIV testing, report of condomless sex, and number of sexual partners in the last year. Respondents exposed to drought were less likely to have an HIV test and more likely to have condomless sex, although effect sizes were small. We found evidence for effect modification by sex and age for the association between drought and HIV testing, such that the negative association between drought and HIV testing was strongest among men (marginal risk ratio [mRR] 0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.95) and adolescents (mRR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.93). Drought may hinder HIV testing programs in countries with high HIV prevalence.

Assessing inclusion of trans people in HIV national strategic plans: a review of 60 high HIV prevalence countries.

IntroductionTrans people are disproportionately impacted by HIV yet have not been adequately prioritized in national HIV responses or policy documents. This review aims to understand the extent of meaningful inclusion of trans people in national strategic plans (NSPs) for HIV/AIDS as an essential step in ensuring that HIV policy aligns with epidemiologic data, and trans‐specific programming is funded, implemented and sustained.MethodsHIV NSPs from 60 countries, across five global regions, were assessed for the level of inclusion of trans populations between January and March 2021. The most recently available NSP for each country, published after 2011, was obtained through publicly accessible online sources or through researcher networks. Data were manually extracted from NSPs using a framework of indicators focusing on trans inclusion in these five major sections of NSPs: (1) narratives; (2) epidemiological data; (3) monitoring and evaluation (M&E) indicators and targets; (4) activities; and (5) budgets.Results and discussionWithin all reviewed NSPs, 65.0% (39/60) mentioned trans people in at least one of the five key sections but only 8.3% (5/60) included trans people in all five key sections. Trans people were more commonly mentioned in the background/narratives of NSPs (61.7%, 37/60) but less commonly included NSP activities (38.3%, 23/60), in M&E indicators and targets (23.7%, 14/60), in epidemiological data (20.0% 12/60), and in NSP budgets (13.3%, 8/60). Countries in the Asia and Pacific region most frequently included trans people in all five key sections (38%, 5/13), while no countries in Eastern and Southern Africa included trans people in all NSP sections.ConclusionsThis analysis finds substantial gaps in the inclusion of trans populations in NSPs globally. Results highlight the pressing need for states, technical partners, and international funders to engage with trans communities to improve trans‐inclusion in all key sections of NSPs. Trans inclusion in NSPs is an essential step towards reaching the populations most at risk of HIV and ultimately achieving country‐level epidemic control.

Finding, treating and retaining persons with HIV in a high HIV prevalence and high treatment coverage country: Results from the Botswana Combination Prevention Project.

IntroductionThe scale-up of Universal Test and Treat has resulted in reductions in HIV morbidity, mortality and incidence. However, healthcare system and personal challenges have impacted the levels of treatment coverage achieved. We implemented interventions to improve linkage to care, retention, viral load (VL) coverage and service delivery, and describe the HIV care cascade over the course of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) study.MethodsBCPP was designed to evaluate the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in 30 communities in Botswana. We followed a longitudinal cohort of newly identified and known HIV-positive persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified through community-based testing activities through BCPP and referred with appointments to local HIV clinics in 15 intervention communities. Those who did not keep the first or follow-up appointments were tracked and traced through phone and home contacts. Improvements to service delivery models in the intervention clinics were also implemented.ResultsA total of 3,657 newly identified or HIV-positive persons not on ART were identified and referred to their local HIV clinic; 90% (3,282/3,657) linked to care and of those, 93% (3,066/3,282) initiated treatment. Near the end of the study, 221 persons remained >90 days late for appointments or missing. Tracing efforts identified 54/3,066 (2%) persons who initiated treatment but died, and 106/3,066 (3%) persons were located and returned to treatment. At study end, 61/3,066 (2%) persons remained missing and were never reached. Overall, 2,951 (98%) persons living with HIV (PLHIV) who initiated treatment were still alive, retained in care and still receiving ART out of the 3,001 persons alive at the end of the study. Of those on ART, 2,854 (97%) had current VL results and 2,784 (98%) of those were virally suppressed at study end.ConclusionsThis study achieved high rates of linkage, treatment initiation, retention and VL coverage and suppression in a cohort of newly identified and known PLHIV not on ART. Tracking and tracing interventions effectively identified those persons who needed more resource intensive follow-up. The interventions implemented to improve service delivery and data quality may have also contributed to high linkage and retention rates.Clinical trial number: NCT01965470.

The educational attainment of orphans in high HIV countries in sub-Saharan Africa: An update

Twenty years ago, it was widely expected that the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa would lead to a severe deterioration in the educational outcomes among a rapidly expanding orphan population. This article reviews the extent to which this happened by analysing recent national household survey evidence from five high HIV prevalence countries, namely Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The main findings are that while some orphans continue to be educationally disadvantaged in some countries, the overall sizes of already quite small enrolment and educational attainment differentials between orphans and non-orphans have not significantly increased in any of these countries. The main reasons for this are the overall decline in the orphan population (due to the mass availability of life-prolonging anti-retro viral medication), free primary education, lower levels of absolute poverty, and targeted support of various kinds for orphans by governments and NGOs.

Risk-Based Screening Tools to Optimise HIV Testing Services: A Systematic Review

Background: Effective ways to diagnose the remaining people living with HIV who do not know their status with limited resources is a global priority. This study aims to evaluate the use of risk-based tools, a set of criteria to either identify high-risk individuals for HIV testing who would not otherwise be offered a test (screen in) or exclude people from a routine offer of a test (screen out). Methods: The study was two parts: (1) systematic literature review and (2) global survey of implementers. We searched four databases July 2020 and assessed the accuracy of tools diagnosing HIV (using AUC: area under a receiver operating characteristic curve). The systematic review protocol is registered PROSPERO (CRD42020187838). From August to September 2020, we invited 68 implementers to complete a survey of their experiences using these tools within programmes. Results: We identified 18,238 citations, and 71 were included the final analysis. Tools identified were most commonly from high-income (51%) and low HIV (<5%) prevalence countries (73%); and used primary care settings (24%), for men who have sex with men (MSM, 21%) and paediatric populations (20%). The majority were for screening in (70%), with the highest performance tools related to identifying MSM with acute HIV (AUC 0.85-0.89). Data from implementers revealed that tools were mainly used middle-income countries (68%), from high HIV prevalence countries (68%) and hospitals (36%). Less than half stated the tools were evaluated (43%) and were used to screen (20/80, 25%), screen out (7/80, 9%) or unknown (53/80, 66%). Conclusion: There is potential for risk-based tools to improve the efficiency of HIV testing services. Screening tools may be helpful settings where it is not feasible or recommended to offer testing routinely. Caution is needed for out tools, where there is a trade-off between reducing costs of testing with missing cases of people living with HIV. Tools must be locally evaluated for accuracy and feasibility of implementation. Country programmes should be cautious implementing such tools and ensure consistent monitoring and regular re-validation to not undermine progress toward the 95-95-95 targets. Registration Details: The systematic review protocol is registered PROSPERO (CRD42020187838). Funding Information: This research was supported by funding from the World Health Organization through the following grants: USAID GHA‐G‐00‐09‐00003, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1177903. JJO is supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Emerging Leadership Fellowship (GNT1193955). Declaration of Interests: The authors declare they do not have any competing interests.

Cost-effectiveness of dual maternal HIV and syphilis testing strategies in high and low HIV prevalence countries: a modelling study

SummaryBackgroundDual HIV and syphilis testing might help to prevent mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV and syphilis through increased case detection and treatment. We aimed to model and assess the cost-effectiveness of dual testing during antenatal care in four countries with varying HIV and syphilis prevalence.MethodsIn this modelling study, we developed Markov models of HIV and syphilis in pregnant women to estimate costs and infant health outcomes of maternal testing at the first antenatal care visit with individual HIV and syphilis tests (base case) and at the first antenatal care visit with a dual rapid diagnostic test (scenario one). We additionally evaluated retesting during late antenatal care and at delivery with either individual tests (scenario two) or a dual rapid diagnosis test (scenario three). We modelled four countries: South Africa, Kenya, Colombia, and Ukraine. Strategies with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than the country-specific cost-effectiveness threshold (US$500 in Kenya, $750 in South Africa, $3000 in Colombia, and $1000 in Ukraine) per disability-adjusted life-year averted were considered cost-effective.FindingsRoutinely offering testing at the first antenatal care visit with a dual rapid diagnosis test was cost-saving compared with the base case in all four countries (ICER: –$26 in Kenya,–$559 in South Africa, –$844 in Colombia, and –$454 in Ukraine). Retesting during late antenatal care with a dual rapid diagnostic test (scenario three) was cost-effective compared with scenario one in all four countries (ICER: $270 in Kenya, $260 in South Africa, $2207 in Colombia, and $205 in Ukraine).InterpretationIncorporating dual rapid diagnostic tests in antenatal care can be cost-saving across countries with varying HIV prevalence. Countries should consider incorporating dual HIV and syphilis rapid diagnostic tests as the first test in antenatal care to support efforts to eliminate MTCT of HIV and syphilis.FundingWHO, US Agency for International Development, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Life Expectancy and Economic Development

This study examines the effect of life expectancy on fertility, education, and labor force participation. Using birth and sibling histories from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in sub‐Saharan Africa, I construct a time series of age‐specific birth rates and mortality rates at the country‐region level. I use these data to test the implications of a general equilibrium model linking life expectancy to fertility, human capital, and labor supply. My results suggest that increases in life expectancy reduce fertility, increase education, and increase labor force participation. Overall, my empirical results suggest that in sub‐Saharan Africa, increases in life expectancy will have a positive impact on growth through fertility, education, and labor supply but that the effect will be small. My results also rule out the possibility that recent shocks to adult mortality in high HIV prevalence countries will reduce fertility, increase labor productivity, and lead to faster growth.

Possible Transmission Mechanisms of Mixed Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in High HIV Prevalence Country, Botswana.

Tuberculosis caused by concurrent infection with multiple Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains (i.e., mixed infection) challenges clinical and epidemiologic paradigms. We explored possible transmission mechanisms of mixed infection in a population-based, molecular epidemiology study in Botswana during 2012–2016. We defined mixed infection as multiple repeats of alleles at >2 loci within a discrete mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit–variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) result. We compared mixed infection MIRU-VNTR results with all study MIRU-VNTR results by considering all permutations at each multiple allele locus; matched MIRU-VNTR results were considered evidence of recently acquired strains and nonmatched to any other results were considered evidence of remotely acquired strains. Among 2,051 patients, 34 (1.7%) had mixed infection, of which 23 (68%) had recently and remotely acquired strains. This finding might support the mixed infection mechanism of recent transmission and simultaneous remote reactivation. Further exploration is needed to determine proportions of transmission mechanisms in settings where mixed infections are prevalent.

Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata

AbstractThis study examines the effect of life expectancy on fertility, education, and labor force participation. Using birth and sibling histories from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in sub‐Saharan Africa, I construct a time series of age‐specific birth rates and mortality rates at the country‐region level. I use these data to test the implications of a general equilibrium model linking life expectancy to fertility, human capital, and labor supply. My results suggest that increases in life expectancy reduce fertility, increase education, and increase labor force participation. Overall, my empirical results suggest that in sub‐Saharan Africa, increases in life expectancy will have a positive impact on growth through fertility, education, and labor supply but that the effect will be small. My results also rule out the possibility that recent shocks to adult mortality in high HIV prevalence countries will reduce fertility, increase labor productivity, and lead to faster growth.

A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic

AbstractAccording to the conventional theory of the demographic transition, mortality decline has represented the major trigger of fertility decline and sustained economic development. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the HIV/AIDS epidemic has had a devastating impact on mortality, dramatically reversing the long-term positive trend in life expectancies in high HIV-prevalence countries. Moreover, SSA is experiencing a delayed and slower fertility transition compared to other world regions and there is growing empirical evidence highlighting the potential for a paralysis, or even a reversal, of the fertility transition in countries with severe HIV epidemics. This work builds on a unified growth theory-like general equilibrium model combined with HIV spread, where mortality endogenously feeds back into fertility and education decisions. The model supports the evidence of an HIV-triggered fertility reversal in SSA via the fall in education and human capital investments due to increased adult mortality, which eventually breaks the switch from quantity to quality of children. Fertility reversal is predicted to be more likely to occur in countries experiencing severe HIV epidemics, and its effects may persist even under successful scenarios of HIV control. These results suggest that the alarming possibility of a paralysis in the fertility transition, which so far has aroused little concern among international organizations, e.g., in the last round of UN population projections, should be seriously considered with a view to prioritizing policy interventions.

Perspectives about childbearing and pregnancy planning amongst people living with HIV in Gaborone, Botswana

Despite advances in clinical care, safer conception services are not utilised in many high HIV prevalence countries, including Botswana. We conducted in-depth interviews with 10 HIV healthcare providers and 10 women living with HIV to develop a deeper understanding of attitudes surrounding childbearing and pregnancy planning. Interviews were analysed using a phenomenological approach. Providers felt it was a human right and normative for women living with HIV to have children but also expressed concern about women living with HIV having children. Women themselves anticipated stigma from providers regarding childbearing, although most described supportive care and had not experienced stigmatising treatment. Although providers believed pregnancies amongst women living with HIV were unplanned, women described discussing pregnancy desires with sexual partners. Despite providers voicing a rights-based approach to childbearing amongst women living with HIV, hesitancy towards pregnancy remains. This is felt by women living with HIV and perceived as stigma, which may make them less likely to seek fertility and safer conception advice. Safer conception interventions are unlikely to be successful if women do not feel comfortable discussing childbearing with health-care providers.

Comparison of knowledge of HIV status and treatment coverage between non-citizens and citizens: Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP).

IntroductionNon-citizens often face barriers to HIV care and treatment. Quantifying knowledge of positive HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among non-citizens in a high HIV-prevalence country like Botswana that is close to achieving UNAIDS “90-90-90” targets may expose important gaps in achieving universal HIV testing and treatment.MethodsThe Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) is a pair-matched cluster-randomized trial evaluating the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in 30 rural or peri-urban communities. Community case finding and HIV testing were conducted in home and mobile venues in 15 intervention communities from October 2013-September 2017. In this secondary analysis, we compared HIV positivity, knowledge of positive HIV-status, and ART status among all citizens and non-citizens assessed at intake in the intervention communities.ResultsHIV status was assessed in 57,556 residents in the intervention communities; 4% (n = 2,463) were non-citizens. Five communities accounted for 81% of the total non-citizens assessed. A lower proportion of non-citizens were HIV-positive (15%; n = 369) compared to citizens (21%; n = 11,416) [p = 0.026]; however, a larger proportion of non-citizens did not know their HIV-positive status prior to BCPP testing (75%) as compared to citizens (15%) [p = 0.003]. Among residents with knowledge of their HIV-positive status before BCPP, 79% of the non-citizens (72/91) were on ART compared to 86% (8,267/9,652) of citizens (p = 0.137).ConclusionsAlthough non-citizens were less likely to know their HIV-positive status compared to citizens, there were no differences in treatment uptake among non-citizens and citizens who knew their status. Designing interventions for non-citizens that provide HIV testing and treatment services commensurate to that of citizens as well as targeting communities with the largest number of non-citizens may help close a meaningful gap in the HIV care cascade and ensure ethical treatment for all HIV-positive persons.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01965470 (Botswana Combination Prevention Project).

Impact of "test and treat" recommendations on eligibility for antiretroviral treatment: Cross sectional population survey data from three high HIV prevalence countries.

BackgroundLatest WHO guidelines recommend starting HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy treatment (ART) regardless of CD4 count. We assessed additional impact of adopting new WHO guidelines.MethodsWe used data of individuals aged 15–59 years from three HIV population surveys conducted in 2012 (Kenya) and 2013 (Malawi and South Africa). Individuals were interviewed at home followed by rapid HIV and CD4 testing if tested HIV-positive. HIV-positive individuals were classified as “eligible for ART” if (i) had ever been initiated on ART or (ii) were not yet on ART but met the criteria for starting ART based on country’s guidelines at the time of the survey (Kenya–CD4< = 350 cells/μl and WHO Stage 3 or 4 disease, Malawi as for Kenya plus lifelong ART for all pregnant and breastfeeding women, South Africa as for Kenya plus ART for pregnant and breastfeeding women until cessation of breastfeeding).FindingsOf 18,991 individuals who tested, 4,113 (21.7%) were HIV-positive. Using country’s ART eligibility guidelines at the time of the survey, the proportion of HIV-infected individuals eligible for ART was 60.0% (95% CI: 57.2–62.7) (Kenya), 73.4% (70.8–75.8) (South Africa) and 80.1% (77.3–82.6) (Malawi). Applying WHO 2013 guidelines (eligibility at CD4< = 500 and Option B+ for pregnant and breastfeeding women), the proportions eligible were 82.0% (79.8–84.1) (Kenya), 83.7% (81.5–85.6) (South Africa) and 87.6% (85.0–89.8) (Malawi). Adopting “test and treat” would mean a further 18.0% HIV-positive individuals (Kenya), 16.3% (South Africa) and 12.4% (Malawi) would become eligible. In all countries, about 20% of adolescents (aged 15–19 years), became eligible for ART moving from WHO 2013 to “test and treat” while no differences by sex were observed.ConclusionCountries that have already implemented 2013 WHO recommendations, the burden of implementing “test and treat” would be small. Youth friendly programmes to help adolescents access and adhere to treatment will be needed.

Towards elimination of HIV transmission, AIDS and HIV-related deaths in the UK.

Our objective was to present recent trends in the UK HIV epidemic (2007-2016) and the public health response. HIV diagnoses and clinical markers were extracted from the HIV and AIDS Reporting System; HIV testing data in sexual health services (SHS) were taken from GUMCAD STI Surveillance System. HIV data were modelled to estimate the incidence in men who have sex with men (MSM) and post-migration HIV acquisition in heterosexuals. Office for National Statistics (ONS) data enabled mortality rates to be calculated. New HIV diagnoses have declined in heterosexuals as a result of decreasing numbers of migrants from high HIV prevalence countries entering the UK. Among MSM, the number of HIV diagnoses fell from 3570 in 2015 to 2810 in 2016 (and from 1554 to 1096 in London). Preceding the decline in HIV diagnoses, modelled estimates indicate that transmission began to fall in 2012, from 2800 [credible interval (CrI) 2300-3200] to 1700 (CrI 900-2700) in 2016. The crude mortality rate among people promptly diagnosed with HIV infection was comparable to that in the general population (1.22 vs. 1.39 per 1000 aged 15-59 years, respectively). The number of MSM tested for HIV at SHS increased annually; 28% of MSM who were tested in 2016 had been tested in the preceding year. In 2016, 76% of people started antiretroviral therapy within 90 days of diagnosis (33% in 2007). The dual successes of the HIV transmission decline in MSM and reduced mortality are attributable to frequent HIV testing and prompt treatment (combination prevention). Progress towards the elimination of HIV transmission, AIDS and HIV-related deaths could be achieved if combination prevention, including pre-exposure prophylaxis, is replicated for all populations.

Temporal evolution of HIV sero-discordancy patterns among stable couples in sub-Saharan Africa.

IntroductionObjective was to examine the temporal variation of HIV sero-discordancy in select representative countries (Kenya, Lesotho, Mali, Niger, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe) in sub-Saharan Africa at different HIV epidemic scales. A sero-discordant couple is defined as a stable couple (SC) in which one partner is HIV-positive while the other is HIV-negative.MethodsA deterministic compartmental mathematical model was constructed to describe HIV transmission dynamics. The model was pair-based, that is explicitly modeling formation of SCs and infection dynamics in both SCs and in single individuals. The model accommodated for different forms of infection statuses in SCs. Using population-based nationally-representative epidemiologic and demographic input data, historical (1980–2014) and future (2015–2030) trends of sero-discordancy and other demographic and epidemiologic indicators were projected throughout HIV epidemic phases.ResultsAs the epidemics emerged, about 90% of SCs affected by HIV were sero-discordant. This proportion declined to 45%-88% at epidemic peak and stabilized as the epidemics started their natural decline. The largest reductions in sero-discordancy were in high HIV-prevalence countries. As the epidemics further declined with antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up, the proportion of sero-discordant couples among HIV-affected couples was projected to increase to 70%-92% by 2030. The proportion of sero-discordant couples among all SCs increased as the epidemics emerged and evolved, then peaked at 2%-20% as the epidemics peaked, and then declined as the epidemics declined to reach 0.3%-16% by 2030.ConclusionsSero-discordancy patterns varied with the evolution of the epidemics, and were affected by both epidemic phase and scale. The largest variations were found in high HIV-prevalence countries. The fraction of stable couples that are sero-discordant, as opposed to being sero-concordant positive, was projected to increase with ART scale-up and further HIV incidence decline over the coming two decades. These findings inform strategic planning and resource allocation for interventions among sero-discordant couples.

Exploring Treatment Needs and Expectations for People Living with HIV in South Africa: A Qualitative Study.

The UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets aim to dramatically increase the number of people who initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) by 2020. Greater understanding of barriers to ART initiation in high prevalence countries like South Africa is critical. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 30 participants in Gugulethu Township, South Africa, including 10 healthcare providers and 20 people living with HIV (PLWH) who did not initiate ART. Interviews explored barriers to ART initiation and acceptability of theory-based intervention strategies to optimize ART initiation. An inductive content analytic approach was applied to the data. Consistent with the Theory of Triadic Influence, barriers to ART initiation were identified at the individual, social, and structural levels. Results suggested high acceptability for intervention strategies involving trained HIV-positive peers among South African PLWH and healthcare providers. Research is needed to evaluate their feasibility and efficacy in high HIV prevalence countries.

Identification of Key Beliefs Explaining Male Circumcision Motivation Among Adolescent Boys in Zimbabwe: Targets for Behavior Change Communication.

Male circumcision (MC) significantly reduces HIV acquisition among men, leading WHO/UNAIDS to recommend high HIV and low MC prevalence countries circumcise 80% of adolescents and men age 15-49. Despite significant investment to increase MC capacity only 27% of the goal has been achieved in Zimbabwe. To increase adoption, research to create evidence-based messages is greatly needed. The Integrated Behavioral Model (IBM) was used to investigate factors affecting MC motivation among adolescents. Based on qualitative elicitation study results a survey was designed and administered to a representative sample of 802 adolescent boys aged 13-17 in two urban and two rural areas in Zimbabwe. Multiple regression analysis found all six IBM constructs (2 attitude, 2 social influence, 2 personal agency) significantly explained MC intention (R2=0.55). Stepwise regression analysis of beliefs underlying each IBM belief-based construct found 9 behavioral, 6 injunctive norm, 2 descriptive norm, 5 efficacy, and 8 control beliefs significantly explained MC intention. A final stepwise regression of all the significant IBM construct beliefs identified 12 key beliefs best explaining intention. Similar analyses were carried out with subgroups of adolescents by urban-rural and age. Different sets of behavioral, normative, efficacy, and control beliefs were significant for each sub-group. This study demonstrates the application of theory-driven research to identify evidence-based targets for the design of effective MC messages for interventions to increase adolescents' motivation. Incorporating these findings into communication campaigns is likely to improve demand for MC.

Can HIV Alter the Quantity-Quality Switch and Delay the Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa?

According to the conventional theory of the demographic transition, mortality decline has represented the major trigger for fertility decline and eventually sustained economic development. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the HIV/AIDS epidemic has had a devastating impact on mortality, by dramatically reversing, in high HIV-prevalence countries, the long-term positive trend in life expectancies. Despite the fact that SSA as a whole is suffering a delayed and slow fertility transition compared to other world’s regions, and despite evidence for halting or even reverting fertility decline in countries with severe HIV epidemics, there seems to be little concern amongst international policy makers, about the ultimate impact that HIV might have on SSA fertility. This work reports model-based evidence of the potential for a HIV-triggered reversal of fertility in high HIV-prevalent SSA countries induced by the fall in education and human capital investments following the drop in life expectancy for young adults. This eventually breaks down the virtuous circle promoting the switch quantity-to-quality of children. This result suggests that the current evidence on fertility halting and declining education in high HIV-prevalent SSA countries should be seriously taken into consideration to prioritise current international interventions.

Geographical Patterns of HIV Sero-Discordancy in High HIV Prevalence Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Introduction: Variation in the proportion of individuals living in a stable HIV sero-discordant partnership (SDP), and the potential drivers of such variability across sub Saharan Africa (SSA), are still not well-understood. This study aimed to examine the spatial clustering of HIV sero-discordancy, and the impact of local variation in HIV prevalence on patterns of sero-discordancy in high HIV prevalence countries in SSA. Methods: We described the spatial patterns of sero-discordancy among stable couples by analyzing Demographic and Health Survey data from Cameroon, Kenya, Lesotho, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We identified spatial clusters of SDPs in each country through a Kulldorff spatial scan statistics analysis. After a geographical cluster was identified, epidemiologic measures of sero-discordancy were calculated and analyzed. Results: Spatial clusters with significantly high numbers of SDPs were identified and characterized in Kenya, Malawi, and Tanzania, and they largely overlapped with the clusters with high HIV prevalence. There was a positive correlation between HIV prevalence and the proportion of SDPs among all stable couples across within and outside clusters. Conversely, there was a negative, but weak and not significant, correlation between HIV prevalence and the proportion of SDPs among all stable couples with at least one HIV-infected individual in the partnership. Discussion: There does not appear to be distinct spatial patterns for HIV sero-discordancy that are independent of HIV prevalence patterns. The variation of the sero-discordancy measures with HIV prevalence across clusters and outside clusters demonstrated similar patterns to those observed at the national level. The spatial variable does not appear to be a fundamental nor independent determinant of the observed patterns of sero-discordancy in high HIV prevalence countries in SSA.