High Explanatory Power Research Articles

Inequality of opportunity and (unequal) opportunities in the youth labour market: How is the Arab world different?

AbstractThe Middle East and North Africa (MENA) labour market is emblematic of widespread youth unemployment and high discouragement rates, experiencing disproportionately high levels of unemployment among educated young people. Using ILO School‐to‐Work Transition Surveys for Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia, the authors explore whether this is related to inequality of opportunity or to deeper structural characteristics that create a mismatch between skill demand and supply on the labour market. The low availability of high‐skilled jobs and the low value placed on skills gained through the system of vocational training are found to have high explanatory power.

Understanding the role of biochar in mitigating soil water stress in simulated urban roadside soil

Biochar has been proposed as a promising amendment that may improve soil structure. However, our understanding how it mitigates extreme soil water stress in roadside soils is limited. In this study, we investigated the effects of biochar on soil properties and plant growth under extreme water stress conditions. A greenhouse experiment was conducted on two-year-old Gingko biloba saplings planted in pots with sandy soil only (CON) and with sandy soil mixed with biochar (BC). To simulate excessive water stress conditions, we increased the soil water-filled pore space up to the saturation level throughout the experimental period. We also simulated the switching water conditions by maintaining the saturation condition for 30 days, followed by no addition of water. The BC treatment significantly influenced the aggregate distribution and enhanced the proportion of macroaggregates (>250 μm). The biochar itself also functioned as a macroaggregate and contributed to increased aeration under the excessive water condition. Under the switching water condition, the micropores within the biochar might have helped maintain the available water for plant roots and soil microbes. Plant growth was significantly higher in the BC than CON soils for both the excessive and switching water sets. In the BC soils, plant growth was higher in the excessive than in the switching water sets, indicating that the soil water status in our BC treatment for the excessive water set was not stressful enough to inhibit plant growth. The % optimal water condition, which is defined as the proportion of days when the soil water status is within the least limiting water range, had a very high explanatory power to explain the plant growth (r = 0.7172, p < 0.0001). Our results indicate that biochar can alleviate water stresses in urban roadside soils by retaining plant available water under the wet and dry conditions.

Dinitrogen (N2) pulse emissions during freeze-thaw cycles from montane grassland soil

Short-lived pulses of soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions during freeze-thaw periods can dominate annual cumulative N2O fluxes from temperate managed and natural soils. However, the effects of freeze thaw cycles (FTCs) on dinitrogen (N2) emissions, i.e., the dominant terminal product of the denitrification process, and ratios of N2/N2O emissions have remained largely unknown because methodological difficulties were so far hampering detailed studies. Here, we quantified both N2 and N2O emissions of montane grassland soils exposed to three subsequent FTCs under two different soil moisture levels (40 and 80% WFPS) and under manure addition at 80% WFPS. In addition, we also quantified abundance and expression of functional genes involved in nitrification and denitrification to better understand microbial drivers of gaseous N losses. Our study shows that each freeze thaw cycle was associated with pulse emissions of both N2O and N2, with soil N2 emissions exceeding N2O emissions by a factor of 5–30. Increasing soil moisture from 40 to 80% WFPS and addition of cow slurry increased the cumulative FTC N2 emissions by 102% and 77%, respectively. For N2O, increasing soil moisture from 40 to 80% WFPS and addition of slurry increased the cumulative emissions by 147% and 42%, respectively. Denitrification gene cnorB and nosZ clade I transcript levels showed high explanatory power for N2O and N2 emissions, thereby reflecting both N gas flux dynamics due to FTC and effects of different water availability and fertilizer addition. In agreement with several other studies for various ecosystems, we show here for mountainous grassland soils that pulse emissions of N2O were observed during freeze-thaw. More importantly, this study shows that the freeze-thaw N2 pulse emissions strongly exceeded those of N2O in magnitude, which indicates that N2 emissions during FTCs could represent an important N loss pathway within the grassland N mass balances. However, their actual significance needs to be assessed under field conditions using intact plant-soil systems.

The End of Dominance? Evaluating Measures of Socio-Economic Background in Stratification Research

AbstractWe analyse how to best combine information on both parents’ socio-economic status (SES) in intergenerational research. This can be done by utilizing separate measures for each parent, taking averages over parents, modelling interactions, or only using the highest value across parents—the latter commonly referred to as the dominance approach. Our brief literature review suggests that (i) the dominance tradition is widespread, although seldom theoretically or empirically justified and (ii) parental interactive models are not widely used. We assess how much of the sibling correlations in continuous measures of education, occupation, and earnings that are explained by parents’ SES in the same dimensions using the different operationalizations. The dominance approach performs poorer than other models of parental SES. For the total contribution of socio-economic background, we find a bias of about 4–6 per cent for children’s education and occupational outcomes compared with other approaches. We also conduct a separate evaluation of nominal EGP social class operationalizations and find that the dominance approach is the most suboptimal choice compared with the alternatives. In conclusion, parental averages are preferred over dominance, as an attractive and parsimonious one variable alternative, although the highest explanatory power is attributed to models using two parental measures and an interaction term.

Socioeconomic inequalities in type 2 diabetes in employed individuals, nonworking spouses and pensioners.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a rising global epidemic with lower socioeconomic groups being more affected. Considering specific population subgroups to examine prevalence and socioeconomic inequalities in T2D is rare. Moreover, using one indicator to depict socioeconomic inequalities in health is a common practice despite evidence on differences in what different socioeconomic indicators ought to measure. This study has two aims:1. Examine the prevalence of T2D in employed individuals, nonworking spouses and pensioners.2. Examine socioeconomic inequalities in T2D in the three population subgroups and determine the explanatory power of income, education and occupation in employed individuals and nonworking spouses.This study is based on claims data from a statutory health insurance provider in Lower Saxony, Germany. T2D prevalence in the period between 2013 and 2017 was examined in employed individuals, nonworking spouses and pensioners. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to examine socioeconomic inequalities in T2D in the three population subgroups. Explanatory power of the three socioeconomic indicators was determined by deviance analysis.Results showed that T2D prevalence was four times higher in male nonworking spouses (24.2%) and 2.6 times higher in female nonworking spouses (12.7%) compared to employed men (6.4%) and women (4.7%) respectively, while it accounted for 40% of men and 36% of women in pensioners. T2D inequalities emerged for all three socioeconomic indicators and were observed in the three subgroups. School education had the highest explanatory power in employed men and women and male nonworking spouses.Nonworking spouses are an important target group in T2D prevention interventions. The three socioeconomic indicators have independent effects and differ in their explanatory power where low school education appears to be a major risk factor. It can be discussed that health literacy and the associated health behavior play a role in mediating the association between school education and T2D.

PCN277 CATCH THE WIND EARLY: PRICE FORECASTING OF EARLY STAGE ONCOLOGY ASSETS IN US

Price and value forecasting is challenging for developmental products where only early efficacy data is available, with products often reaching pivotal clinical development stages without an estimate of likely price potential and, effectively, returns. This may result in missing the opportunity to optimise the asset’s evidence generation plan, price and launch sequence. To define the value and forecast the price potential of assets in development, we have selected a variety of different value attributes that drive decision-making within oncology to arrive at a value framework. A Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework was developed using 21 weighted criteria validated by previously published research on MCDA and value framework methodologies from ICER (Institute for Clinical and Economic Review) and ASCO for the evaluation of medicines. The MCDA was based on a scoring system on a scale of 0 to 5 depending on each criterion. The MCDA framework included two groups: the first (core) group includes attributes that measure clinical benefit, economic value and disease characteristics; the second (extended) group covers additional broader considerations such as public health interests and non-health benefits. A linear regression analysis was performed using monthly cost of treatment as the dependent variable and aggregate MCDA score as the independent variable for immune-oncology products launched in US. For 6 immuno-oncology products, a strong correlation between the MCDA scores and the average monthly cost of treatment was observed [R of 0.89 for core group and 0.93 for the extended group]. The correlation that statistically measures how close the data are to the fitted regression line (R2) was over 0.8 for both groups suggesting a high explanatory power of the developed value framework. The study provides a robust framework for estimating the value and price of assets within immuno-oncology indications to inform Pricing and Market Access strategy.

Correlates of forest-cover change in European Russia, 1989–2012

European Russia rapidly transitioned after the collapse of the Soviet Union from state socialism to a market economy. How did this political and economic transformation interact with ecological conditions to determine forest loss and gain? We explore this question with a study of European Russia in the two decades following the collapse of the Soviet Union. We identify three sets of potential determinants of forest-cover change—supply-side (environmental), demand-side (economic), and political/administrative factors. Using new satellite data for three distinct types of forest-cover change—logging, forest fires, and forest gain—we quantify the relative importance of these variables in province-level regression models during periods of a) state collapse (1990s), and b) state growth (2000s). The three sets of covariates jointly explain considerable variation in the outcomes we examine, with size of forest bureaucracy, autonomous status of the region, and prevalence of evergreen forests emerging as robust predictors of forest-cover change. Overall, economic and administrative variables are significantly associated with rates of logging and reforestation, while environmental variables have high explanatory power for patterns of forest fire loss.

The impacts of perceived moral obligation and sustainability self‐identity on sustainability development: A theory of planned behavior purchase intention model of sustainability‐labeled coffee and the moderating effect of climate change skepticism

AbstractThis study sought to elucidate the antecedents that may influence the effect of people's purchase behavior on the Earth's sustainable development. It included people's perceived moral obligation and sustainability self‐identity in the theory of planned behavior (TPB) model to investigate attitudes among the Taiwanese public's attitude toward purchasing sustainability‐labeled coffee and their purchase intentions. The moderating effect of climate change skepticism is also considered in this study. A total of 745 nationwide and self‐reported questionnaire valid data was collected in Taiwan. Hierarchical and moderated regression analysis results indicated that the components of the TPB model had positive influences on the public's purchase intention. The public's perceived moral obligation and sustainability self‐identity, proposed for inclusion in the TPB model, had significant and positive influences on purchase intention. The extended TPB model has higher explanatory power than that of the original model. The positive relationship between sustainability self‐identity and intention to purchase sustainability‐labeled coffee was moderated by climate change skepticism. This study provides marketers and the players in the supply chain with a comprehensive framework for understanding the influence of perceived moral obligation and sustainability self‐identity on purchase intention toward sustainability‐labeled products. In addition, this study responds to a call for a more thorough investigation of the effect of people's skepticism about climate change in the context of ethical and sustainable consumption decision‐making processes.

Application of asset pricing models: evidence from Saudi exchange

The Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange (Tadawul) is one of the biggest emerging Stock Exchanges in the Middle East region. Therefore, this research aims to apply Fama and French (2015) 5-factor model on Tadawul, and compares it with the Fama and French 3-factor model and CAPM to check the applicability of the models in Tadawul and the identity of the factors that can affect stock returns. Furthermore, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regression has been implemented to examine the impact between the variables in the models. Empirically, the results show that Fama and French (2015) 5-factor model is the most consistent model in comparison to the other two models in terms of explaining the cross-section of average stock returns in Tadawul. However, it is not the best according to the intercepts results of all the regressions in 2x3, 2x2, or 2x2x2x2 sorts. Besides, Fama and French (2015) 5-factor model has the highest explanatory power in most of the portfolios based on the adjusted R2 regardless of the sort (2x3, 2x2, or 2x2x2x2). Finally, the results conclude that Fama and French (2015) 5-factor model can be an applicable model in Tadawul but only market and size can affect the stock returns, while the value, profitability, and investment cannot. Accordingly, the author recommends that, as a continuation of this research, further research can be done, which investigates a model with additional factors like momentum and illiquidity.

Sustainable development drivers of companies: An international and multilevel analysis

AbstractBy adopting a pluralistic theoretical framework from stakeholder theory, neo‐institutional theory, and the resource‐based view, this article aims to identify the determinants of the sustainable development commitment or corporate social performance (CSP) of companies in an international context through a macrolevel, mesolevel, and microlevel analysis. Using a methodology based on generalized estimation equation models and social data from the Vigeo Eiris longitudinal database (2004–2015), the study shows that the economic system, in the sense of Amable, and the industrial sector have the greatest influence on CSP and its dimensions. This finding puts into perspective work that attributes high explanatory power to macroeconomic and mesoeconomic variables and moderates the influence of microeconomic variables on CSP, as firm size, R&amp;D policy, and financial performance.

The Effect of Earnings Disclosures on Stock Prices in Developed Economies

This study aims to evaluate the usefulness and relevance of accounting earnings disclosures, as the key determinant for share price changes. The main objective is to examine whether earnings response coefficient (ERC) behavior could explain more fully the share price changes, as to the reason why the share price change is not equal to the amount of announced earnings. The study is done with data sets from four developed countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) group (i.e., Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), Sweden, and Switzerland) for the period 2001-2014. Two measures of abnormal returns are regressed against the size of the announced earnings. The first regression uses measures from individual events. The second regression uses a new measure; that is, from portfolios made out of all observations sorted by size of earnings into ten portfolios for each country. The portfolio method used was aimed at controlling possible idiosyncratic-errors-in-variables problem using individual event measures. The results using individual-event measures resulted in reasonable ERC sizes with high R2 explanatory power, a little higher than those reported in prior studies on other countries. Importantly, portfolio-based ERCs are close to the magnitude of the earnings in some tests, which supports the famous value relevance theory in accounting. This finding is new to this literature.

When does weather synchronize life‐history traits? Spatiotemporal patterns in juvenile body mass of two ungulates

Theory predicts that animal populations will be synchronized over large distances by weather and climatic conditions with high spatial synchrony. However, local variation in population responses to weather, and low synchrony in key weather variables or in other ecological processes may reduce the population synchrony. We investigated to what extent temperature and precipitation during different periods of the year synchronized juvenile body mass of moose and reindeer in Norway. We expected high synchronizing effect of weather variables with a high and consistent explanatory power on body mass dynamics across populations, and a weaker synchronizing effect of weather variables whose effect on body mass varied among populations. Juvenile body mass in both species was related to temperature and precipitation during several periods of the year. Temperature had the strongest explanatory power in both species, with a similar effect across all populations. There was higher spatial synchrony in temperature compared to precipitation, and accordingly temperature had the strongest synchronizing effect on juvenile body mass. Moreover, periods with strong explanatory power had stronger synchronizing effect on juvenile body mass in both species. However, weather variables with large variation in the effects on body mass among populations had weak synchronizing effect. The results confirm that weather has a large impact on the spatial structure of population properties but also that spatial heterogeneity, for instance, in environmental change or population density may affect how and to what extent populations are synchronized.

Which is worse for the red-billed curassow: habitat loss or hunting pressure?

AbstractLarge ground-dwelling Neotropical gamebirds are highly threatened by habitat loss and hunting, but conservationists rarely attempt to distinguish between these two threats in the management of populations. We used three different types of species records to determine the status (i.e. persistence level) of the Endangered red-billed curassow Crax blumenbachii in 14 forest remnants in north-east Brazil, as either persistent, precarious or extirpated. We related these persistence levels to variables measured in a 2-km buffer radius, including variables associated with habitat quality (proportion of forest cover, length of rivers, patch density, distance from rivers) and hunting pressure (proportion of cacao agroforests and farmlands, length of roads, total area occupied by settlements, distance from roads and from settlements). Curassows were more persistent in forest patches located (1) more distant from settlements, (2) in landscapes with few settlements, (3) in landscapes with a high incidence of roads, (4) in a mosaic with a high proportion of forest, shaded cacao agroforest and farmland, and (5) more distant from other forest patches. Hunting pressure potentially exerts more influence on persistence than habitat quality: (1) hunting pressure submodels had a higher explanatory power than habitat quality submodels, (2) final models comprised four hunting pressure variables but only two habitat quality variables, and (3) hunting pressure variables appeared in all models whereas habitat quality variables appeared in only one final model. If hunting pressure is driving declines in curassows, regions with low human presence and a high proportion of forest cover are recommended for establishing new reserves.

Aureobasidium pullulans volatilome identified by a novel, quantitative approach employing SPME-GC-MS, suppressed Botrytis cinerea and Alternaria alternata in vitro

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) produced by Aureobasidium pullulans were investigated for antagonistic actions against Alternaria alternata and Botrytis cinerea. Conidia germination and colony growth of these two phytopathogens were suppressed by A. pullulans VOCs. A novel experimental setup was devised to directly extract VOCs using solid-phase microextraction-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (SPME-GC-MS) from antagonist-pathogen culture headspace. The proposed system is a robust method to quantify microbial VOCs using an internal standard. Multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares deconvolution of SPME-GC-MS spectra identified fourteen A. pullulans VOCs. 3-Methyl-1-hexanol, acetone, 2-heptanone, ethyl butyrate, 3-methylbutyl acetate and 2-methylpropyl acetate were newly identified in A. pullulans headspace. Partial least squares discriminant analysis models with variable importance in projection and selectivity ratio identified four VOCs (ethanol, 2-methyl-1-propanol, 3-methyl-1-butanol and 2-phenylethanol), with high explanatory power for discrimination between A. pullulans and pathogen. The antifungal activity and synergistic interactions of the four VOCs were evaluated using a Box-Behnken design with response surface modelling. Ethanol and 2-phenylethanol are the key inhibitory A. pullulans VOCs against both B. cinerea and A. alternata. Our findings introduce a novel, robust, quantitative approach for microbial VOCs analyses and give insights into the potential use of A. pullulans VOCs to control B. cinerea and A. alternata.

Citation concept analysis (CCA) of Robert K. Merton’s book Social Theory and Social Structure: How often are certain concepts from the book cited in subsequent publications?

Citations can be used in evaluative bibliometrics to measure the impact of papers. However, citation analysis can be extended by considering a multidimensional perspective on citation impact which is intended to receive more specific information about the kind of received impact. Bornmann, Wray, and Haunschild (2020) introduced the citation concept analysis (CCA) for capturing the importance and usefulness certain concepts (explained in publications) have in subsequent research. In this paper, we apply the method by investigating the impact various concepts introduced in Robert K. Merton’s book Social Theory and Social Structure has had. This book was to lay down a manifesto for sociological analysis in the immediate postwar period, and retains a major impact 70 years later. We found that the most cited concepts are “self-fulfilling” and “role” (about 20% of the citation contexts are related to one of these concepts). The concept “self-fulfilling” seems to be important especially in computer sciences and psychology. For “role,” this seems to be additionally the case for political sciences. These and further results of the study could demonstrate the high explanatory power of the CCA method.

Stock Price Response to Earnings Announcements in a Major Emerging Economy

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relevance and usefulness of accounting information, specifically earnings announcements, as the key determinant for stock price changes. The main objective is to investigate whether ERC behavior could explain more fully the stock price changes, as to the reason why the stock price change is not equal to the amount of announced earnings. The study reports significant findings from applying portfolio method, which shows major stock price reactions and very large earnings response coefficients to accounting earnings disclosed to the stock exchange markets of Mexico as a major emerging economy, for the period 2001-2014. The abnormal returns to disclosed events are significantly positive when earnings increase and negative when earnings decrease. Two measures of abnormal returns are regressed against the size of the announced earnings. The first regression uses measures from individual events. The second regression uses a new measure; that is, from portfolios made of all observations sorted by size of earnings into ten portfolios. The portfolio method used was aimed at controlling possible idiosyncratic-errors-in-variables problem using individual event measures. The findings using individual-event measures resulted in reasonable-size earnings response coefficient with high R2 explanatory power, a little higher than those reported in prior studies on other countries. Meanwhile, the portfolio method led to a much bigger size of earnings response coefficient that strongly support the value relevance accounting theory. This finding is new to this literature.

Time Use and Household Division of Labor in India—Within‐Gender Dynamics

AbstractHousehold allocation of labor is an important area of scholarship in developing countries where women's well‐being is affected by the heavy load of unpaid work within the household. This study extends nuclear household‐centric research on labor allocation by drawing attention to bargaining between female in‐laws in multigenerational households in India. This paper empirically tests two competing theories based on the impact of a daughter‐in‐law's education on household division of labor in multigenerational households. First is Caldwell's thesis that contends that increasing education would increase the bargaining power of daughter‐in‐law, thereby tilting the distribution of household labor in her favor, and the second is patriarchal bargain theory that makes an opposite claim. Both these theories are tested using time‐use data, and the latter is found to have higher explanatory power. Further layers are added to the analysis by tracing the effects of caste, class, and religion. Findings show that these mediate and determine the division of housework and bargaining outcomes between female in‐laws. This study emphasizes the need for an intersectional understanding of gender norms that are inextricably tied to factors such as religion, caste, class, and family structure. Findings also underline the need to study within‐gender dynamics systematically.

The relationship between sport’s endorsement in social media and consumers’ attitude towards the advertising

The purpose of this study was to investigate the attitude towards advertising that promoted by sports’ endorsement in social media. The present study was correlation research. The statistical population was Iranian university students. A total of 236 questionnaires were collected using cluster-random sampling. In inferential statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient and multiple regression were used for data analysis. To assess the reliability of the questionnaire, Cronbach's Alpha was used (0.94%). The coefficient of determination (R2) shows the level of variance explanation and the changing of dependent variable by the sum of independent variables and the factors that related to sports endorsers explaining 20% of consumers’ attitude towards advertising. F = 15.02 indicates that four independent variables have high explanatory power and well-explained the extent of the variation of the dependent variable. In general, the results of this study showed that there is a significant relationship between dependent and independent variables, and among these four factors, the endorsed testimonial can be a good predictor of the consumer attitude towards the advertisements promoted by athletes.

Are social conflicts at work associated with depressive symptomatology? Results from the population-based LIFE-Adult-Study

BackgroundPsychosocial stressors in the workplace can be detrimental to mental health. Conflicts at work, e.g. aggression, hostility or threats from coworkers, supervisors or customers, can be considered a psychosocial stressor, possibly increasing risk for depressive symptoms. Existing studies, however, differ in the assessment of social conflicts, i.e. as individual- or job-level characteristics. Here, we investigated the association between conflicts at work assessed as objective job characteristics, and depressive symptomatology, using data from a large population-based sample. Additionally, we investigated gender differences and the impact of personality traits and social resources.MethodsWe used data from the population-based LIFE-Adult-Study from Leipzig, Germany. Information on conflicts at work, assessed as job characteristics, were drawn from the Occupational Information Network, depressive symptoms were assessed via the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale. Multilevel linear regression models with individuals and occupations as levels of analysis were applied to investigate the association between conflicts at work and depressive symptoms.ResultsOur sample included 2164 employed adults (age: 18–65 years, mean: 49.3, SD: 7.9) in 65 occupations. No association between conflicts s at work and depressive symptomatology was found (men: b = − 0.14; p = 0.74, women: b = 0.17, p = 0.72). Risk for depression was mostly explained by individual-level factors like e.g. neuroticism or level of social resources. The model showed slightly higher explanatory power in the female subsample.ConclusionConflicts at work, assessed as objective job characteristics, were not associated with depressive symptoms. Possible links between interpersonal conflict and impaired mental health might rather be explained by subjective perceptions of social stressors and individual coping styles.

Biocapacity—Premise of Sustainable Development in the European Space

The contemporary lifestyle, based on unsustainable consumption patterns, leads to an orientation of the society towards the development and application of sustainable development strategies and policies. The comparative analysis of the ecological footprint and biocapacity allows one to study the interaction between human activities and environment, through the biocapacity reserve or deficit. In this context, this article carries out a complex analysis of the biocapacity reserve/deficit, as a latent variable that quantifies sustainability, viewed through a selection of determinants, from which three main components have been extracted: A component of education and social exclusion, a component of economic development, innovation, and environment, and a demographic component. These were transformed—through a multiple linear regression model—into exogenous variables with high explanatory power over the variation of the biocapacity reserve/deficit and constituted the tools in identifying behavioral patterns of the European countries and a set of measures leading to the sustainability of the ecological reserve.