High Environmental Suitability Research Articles

Climatic and soil characteristics account for the genetic structure of the invasive cactus moth Cactoblastis cactorum, in its native range in Argentina.

Knowledge of the physical and environmental conditions that may limit the migration of invasive species is crucial to assess the potential for expansion outside their native ranges. The cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum, is native to South America (Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Brazil) and has been introduced and invaded the Caribbean and southern United States, among other regions. In North America there is an ongoing process of range expansion threatening cacti biodiversity of the genus Opuntia and the commercial profits of domesticated Opuntia ficus-indica. To further understand what influences the distribution and genetic structure of this otherwise important threat to native and managed ecosystems, in the present study we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic analyses to identify potential environmental barriers in the native region of Argentina. Samples were collected on the host with the wider distribution range, O. ficus-indica. Significant genetic structure was detected using 10 nuclear microsatellites and 24 sampling sites. At least six genetic groups delimited by mountain ranges, salt flats and wetlands were mainly located to the west of the Dry Chaco ecoregion. Niche modeling supports that this region has high environmental suitability where the upper soil temperature and humidity, soil carbon content and precipitation were the main environmental factors that explain the presence of the moth. Environmental filters such as the upper soil layer may be critical for pupal survival and consequently for the establishment of populations in new habitats, whereas the presence of available hosts is a necessary conditions for insect survival, upper soil and climatic characteristics will determine the opportunities for a successful establishment.

The risk of vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi remains high in the State of Paraná.

Monitoring and analysing the infection rates of the vector of Trypanosoma cruzi, that causes Chagas disease, helps assess the risk of transmission. A study was carried out on triatomine in the State of Paraná, Brazil, between 2012 and 2021 and a comparison was made with a previous study. This was done to assess the risk of disease transmission. Ecological niche models based on climate and landscape variables were developed to predict habitat suitability for the vectors as a proxy for risk of occurrence. A total of 1,750 specimens of triatomines were recorded, of which six species were identified. The overall infection rate was 22.7%. The areas with the highest risk transmission of T. cruzi are consistent with previous predictions in municipalities. New data shows that climate models are more accurate than landscape models. This is likely because climate suitability was higher in the previous period. Regardless of uneven sampling and potential biases, risk remains high due to the wide presence of infected vectors and high environmental suitability for vector species throughout the state and, therefore, improvements in public policies aimed at wide dissemination of knowledge about the disease are recommended to ensure the State remains free of Chagas disease.

Trypauchen vagina (Bloch & Schneider, 1801) a new established species in the Southwestern Atlantic

AbstractTrypauchen vagina (Bloch & Schneider, 1801) is a goby that lives burrowed into the substrata feeding on small invertebrates. It is native to the Indo‐pacific region, ranging from Kuwait to China. Recently, this fish has been reported outside the original range of distribution, being found in the Mediterranean Sea, and more recently in the northeastern Brazilian coast. The Mediterranean reports are usually associated with Lessepsian migration, while the reports from Brazil are possibly related to ballast water transportation. In the present work, we provide eight new records from southeastern Brazilian coast, all made in São Paulo state, far from the first record. These additional records raised concern since the presence of an alien species could implicate in environmental and economic losses. Thus, we decide to model the environmental suitability for this goby in the Brazilian coast, specially focusing on major ports, usually places with high ballast water propagule pressure. In addition, an analysis of the suitability in the Red Sea was also made, to verify the hypothesis of Lessepsian migration. The results revealed that temperature and primary productivity are among the most important parameters for the presence of T. vagina, also indicating a high environmental suitability for this species in the Red Sea and Brazilian coast, especially in southeastern region, where the new records were made. Due to the number of collected individuals, it is hard to affirm that this taxon presents a self‐sustaining population in Brazilian waters, but the several registers, in different locations and different life stages point to an establishment of the species in this new region. This population status allied with a high environmental suitability is alarming and should motivate new studies concerning T. vagina in Brazilian waters.

A Multifunctional and Selective Ionic Flexible Sensor with High Environmental Suitability for Tactile Perception

AbstractInspired by the tactile sensory mechanism of human skin, ionic hydrogels‐derived ionic flexible sensors have attracted much attention since they can produce output signals that match the recognition mode of nerves, showing a potential application in the human‐machine interaction. Unfortunately, the practical sensing properties of ionic hydrogels are restricted by the drawbacks of hydroelastic instability and non‐selective response ability, such as poor mechanical strength, irretentive solvent retaining capacity, and low‐temperature intolerance. Herein, in this study, a novel physical‐crosslink enhanced ionic hydrogel‐PVA/PEG/TA‐MXene‐Na+/Li+ (PPM‐NL) nanocomposite is prepared and shows well comprehensive properties of mechanical strength (400% elongation at break, 0.93 MPa), electrical conductivity (8.1 S m−1), tear resistance, self‐healing and anti‐freezing/drying features (93% water retention after sixty days and frost resistance −27 °C). The PPM‐NL hydrogel‐derived flexible sensor displays selective response behavior to tensile and compressive deformation with high sensitivity (G = 1.12) and rapid response time (only 60 ms). Further, this ionic flexible device is applied to monitor the joint motions of humanoid hands and integrated into manipulators to recognize the thickness and softness of objects, showing superior environmental stability. It can be believed that this ionic flexible sensor will provide inspiration for developing next‐generation biomimetic tactile perception of robots.

Space-environment relationship in the identification of potential areas of expansion of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Didelphis aurita in the Atlantic Rainforest.

Ecological Niche Modeling is widely used for animals, but rarely for understanding the parasite ecology. Trypanosoma cruzi is a heterogeneous and widely dispersed multi-host parasite. Didelphis aurita is a generalist species, both in terms of diet and environments. We modeled the D. aurita niche and T. cruzi infection in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest, using the models of two common vector species (Triatoma vitticeps and Panstrongylus megistus) as biotic variables, predicting their occurrence. Records of T. cruzi infected and non-infected D. aurita were analyzed through climate and landscape approaches by the Ecoland method. Models for each triatomine species and infected and noninfected D. aurita were produced considering climate and landscape: resolution of ~1km2 selected by Pearson's correlation [-0.7≤α≤0.7]. For modeling, seven algorithms available in ModleR package were used. True Skill Statistic was used to evaluate the models' performance (≥ 0.7). T. vitticeps indicates that there is a spatial dependence with warm areas in the southeastern region while P. megistus presented a distribution with high environmental suitability concentrated in the Southeast. High values of climatic suitability, landscape and potential presence of T. vitticeps and P. megistus were considered necessary, but not sufficient for the presence of D. aurita infected by T. cruzi. Climate models showed an ecological niche with suitability variations homogeneous, and landscape models showed a distribution of habitat conditions along the biome, with a fragmented profile and heterogeneous between locations. Ecoland demonstrated that D. aurita has different degrees of impact on its role in the enzootic cycle in different locations of the Atlantic Rainforest. Associating the models with the Ecoland method allowed the recognition of areas where D. aurita are important T. cruzi reservoirs. Areas of high suitability for the presence of marsupials are a necessary, but not sufficient for D. aurita to act as a reservoir for T. cruzi.

Design of outdoor LED ground display system in major scenes

AbstractLED ground display system, as an important outdoor display system in major scenes such as some international performance events or interactive display system, has brought spectacular and gorgeous artistic effect to the audience. According to the customized design and the effort we made, this world class super large‐scale outdoor display system has realized successfully at the beginning of the year 2022 in Beijing. This LED ground display system has many innovation in product design, control system design, and field implementation especially for the need of super high reliability, high environmental suitability, convenient installability, 4,500 m2 super large display area, very complex system integration, and long service time. This paper indicates the detail introduction of the ground display system, specially focuses on the high reliability product design, high display performance design, system reliability design, field implementation, and actual verification results of the semi‐circular display area on both sides of the stage. Meanwhile, some simulation technologies are used in this design related to optics, mechanics, and so on. Furthermore, under the special application environment, to ensure the reliability of the outdoor display system, a dynamic screen preheating method according to temperature change is proposed and proved effectively by practice.

Suitability Analysis of Water Cultural Heritage Structures in Beijing Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Geographic Information Systems

As significant physical carriers of hydraulic science and technology, water cultural heritage (WCH) structures might exert positive effects on the economy, society, and environment. However, it is challenging to develop a scientific conservation plan due to the lack of comprehensive cognition and value assessment criteria for the vast majority of WCH structures. In this study, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information systems (GIS) were introduced to develop a multidimensional evaluation system for WCH in Beijing based on the suitability perspective. This approach proposes a strategy covering macro, meso, and micro levels based on three aspects: heritage value, spatial distribution, and environmental resistance. The findings indicated that there are significant differences in values among the nine heritage categories, and royal gardens and rivers were suggested for greater emphasis on protection. Besides, the distribution of WCH structures is clustered, which can be categorized into four distinct agglomerative zones. Most of the heritage sites are found on built-up land with low elevation and gentle slopes, resulting in high environmental suitability. Lastly, we proposed a framework for conservation with “one centre, two wings, one area, and a multi-node” to facilitate the development of effective policies by decision-makers.

The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: A path to extinction?

Global changes increasingly worry researchers and policymakers and may have irreversible impacts on Earth's biodiversity. Similar to other phytophysiognomies, natural grasslands suffer from the effects of land use changes and rising temperatures, threatening animal and plant communities. Birds, being very sensitive to these changes, are widely studied and fundamental to understand the dynamics of ecosystems in relation to climate and land use changes. The Campo Miner Geositta poeciloptera is a grassland bird endemic to the Brazilian Cerrado and threatened with extinction that has been widely studied in recent years. We analyze the decrease in its extent of occurrence (EOO) and the effects of climate and land use change to understand the environmental suitability of the species in current and future scenarios. We used 5 common algorithms to produce ecological niche models. For future predictions, we use two general circulation models for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios with different climate policies, an optimistic (ssp245) and a pessimistic (ssp585), plus two land use models focusing on increasing farmlands and reducing native grasslands. The current EOO represents ~45% of that presented by the IUCN EOO. The models generated for the present were satisfactory (TSS=0.77 and ROC=0.90) and showed high environmental suitability in areas where the species is currently found and low suitability where it is already extinct. All future scenarios have reduced suitable areas for the species, and the models of a greater increase in temperature and increase in farmlands and a greater decrease in grasslands were the worse. Our results reinforce the need to care about biome awareness disparity and the importance of actively preserving grassy-shrub areas. Apparently, the state of Minas Gerais will be the only stronghold of the species in the coming years; however, the lack of protected areas that guarantee its survival needs attention.

Achieving anti-corrosion and anti-biofouling dual-function self-healing coating by natural carrier attapulgite loading with 2-Undecylimidazoline

In the marine environment, the protective coatings face serious corrosion and biofouling problem, limitations, and challenges that made self-healing coatings unable to perform both anti-corrosion and anti-biofouling dual-function at the same time. Here we constructed the corrosion resistance and anti-biofouling self-healing coating by integrating nano-containers into the coating matrix, the 2-Undecylimidazoline (ULM) acted as a corrosion inhibitor and anti-biofouling dual-functional agent which was loaded on the natural container attapulgite (ATP). To obtain high healing efficiency, a fluidity-driven self-healing silicone oil coating was thickened by fibrous ATP to enhance its stability, which played a key role in the self-healing and long-term corrosion resistance. The self-healing time of ULM@ATP reinforced oil coating was 4 s at least in the air and up to 30 s in the 1 M HCl solution. Meanwhile, the ULM@ATP can significantly enhance the corrosion resistance of the self-healing coating, with the best effect achieved when the content of ULM@ATP was 5 wt.%. The impedance modulus of ULM@ATP-2 still reached 1.62 × 108 Ω cm2 after 480 immersion in 3.5 wt.% NaCl solution, which is 3 orders of magnitude high than pure Oil coating (2.17 × 105 Ω cm2). The restructure of the ATP network and the release of ULM could largely inhibit the corrosion of metal. The continuous open circuit potential of the composite coating performed the potentially infinite self-healing capacity. The self-healing performances of the composite coating in strong acid and base solutions exhibited high environmental suitability. This anti-corrosion and anti-biofouling (the surface coverage of adhered chlorella decreased 96.88%) dual-function strategy of self-healing coatings could be also realized by many other porous nano-materials or function modifications. The self-healing performances of the composite coating in strong acid and base solutions exhibited high environmental suitability. This anti-corrosion and anti-biofouling dual-function strategy of self-healing coatings could be also realized by many other porous nano-materials or function modifications. The rapid response self-healing coating possessed anti-biofouling and active self-healing functions and showed wide application under more service environments.

Geostatistical modelling of the distribution, risk and burden of podoconiosis in Kenya.

Understanding and accurately predicting the environmental limits, population at risk and burden of podoconiosis are critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services, planning control and elimination programs and implementing tailored case finding and surveillance activities. This is secondary analysis of a nationwide podoconiosis mapping survey in Kenya. We combined national representative prevalence survey data of podoconiosis with climate and environmental data, overlayed with population figures in a geostatistical modelling framework, to predict the environmental suitability, population living in at-risk areas and number of cases of podoconiosis in Kenya. In 2020, the number of people living with podoconiosis in Kenya was estimated to be 9344 (95% uncertainty interval 4222 to 17962). The distribution of podoconiosis varies by geography and three regions (Eastern, Nyanza and Western) represent >90% of the absolute number of cases. High environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in four regions of Kenya (Coastal, Eastern, Nyanza and Western). In total, 2.2 million people live in at-risk areas and 4.2% of the total landmass of Kenya is environmentally predisposed for podoconiosis. The burden of podoconiosis is relatively low in Kenya and is mostly restricted to certain small geographical areas. Our results will help guide targeted prevention and treatment approaches through local planning, spatial targeting and tailored surveillance activities.

Alien parakeets as a potential threat to the common noctule Nyctalus noctula

The ring-necked parakeet Psittacula krameri (Aves: Psittaciformes) is a widely distributed species of Asian and African origin, which occurs with over 40 alien populations in the rest of the world. Most established populations of this species are showing a clear trend of territorial expansion and numerical growth. Recent reviews highlighted that one of the main impacts by alien ring-necked parakeets is the competition with threatened bat species using trunk cavities as roosts. In Italy, the only known reproductive population of Nyctalus bats (Mammalia: Chiroptera) occurs in an urban area in the central part of the country, surrounded by increasing and expanding populations of ring-necked parakeets. In this work, we updated the population status of both ring-necked and Alexandrine parakeets and breeding noctule bats in the region. Then, we ran a species distribution model using Maxent software to analyze the environmental suitability of the region for the ring-necked parakeet and a connectivity model using Circuitscape software to predict the possibility of its expansion in the area occupied by breeding noctule bats. We recorded a high number of individual parakeets and breeding colonies, together with a remarkable noctule population decline, from about 400 to about 120 individuals, in the last 20 years, possibly due to urban green management practices. Although some ring-necked parakeets have already been observed in the study area, there is no evidence of reproduction in the surroundings of the noctule colony. However, our model showed a high environmental suitability for the ring-necked parakeet in the area occupied by breeding noctules. As well, the connectivity model showed the potential for a direct flow of individuals from the main urban centers to the area used by noctule bats. The arrival of alien parakeets to the area occupied by the bat breeding colony should be tightly monitored by surveying the suitable areas for this bird, as well as the identified ecological corridors. Early detection of new invasions, together with a sustainable urban green management practice, may prevent the extinction of the southernmost breeding colony of the common noctule.

Reduction of Genetic Variation When Far From the Niche Centroid: Prediction for Mangrove Species

The niche-centroid hypothesis states that populations that are distributed near the centroid of the species' ecological niche will have higher fitness-related attributes, such as population abundance and genetic diversity than populations near the edges of the niche. Empirical evidence based on abundance and, more recently, genetic diversity data support this hypothesis. However, there are few studies that test this hypothesis in coastal species, such as mangroves. Here, we focused on the black mangrove Avicennia germinans. We combined ecological, heterozygosity, and allelic richness information from 1,419 individuals distributed in 40 populations with three main goals: (1) test the relationship between distance to the niche centroid and genetic diversity, (2) determine the set of environmental variables that best explain heterozygosity and allelic richness, and (3) predict the spatial variation in genetic diversity throughout most of the species' natural geographic range. We found a strong correlation between the distance to the niche centroid and both observed heterozygosity (Ho; ρ2 = 0.67 P < 0.05) and expected heterozygosity (He; ρ2 = 0.65, P < 0.05). The niche variables that best explained geographic variation in genetic diversity were soil type and precipitation seasonality. This suggests that these environmental variables influence mangrove growth and establishment, indirectly impacting standing genetic variation. We also predicted the spatial heterozygosity of A. germinans across its natural geographic range in the Americas using regression model coefficients. They showed significant power in predicting the observed data (R2 = 0.65 for Ho; R2 = 0.60 for He), even when we considered independent data sets (R2= 0.28 for Ho; R2 = 0.25 for He). Using this approach, several genetic diversity estimates can be implemented and may take advantage of population genomics to improve genetic diversity predictions. We conclude that the level of genetic diversity in A. germinans is in agreement with expectations of the niche-centroid hypothesis, namely that the highest heterozygosity and allelic richness (the basic genetic units for adaptation) are higher at locations of high environmental suitability. This shows that this approach is a potentially powerful tool in the conservation and management of this species, including for modelling changes in the face of climate change.

Fragility of nocturnal interactions: Pollination intensity increases with distance to light pollution sources but decreases with increasing environmental suitability

Light pollution represents a widespread long-established human-made disturbance and an important threat to nocturnal pollination. Distance from the niche centroid where optimal environmental conditions join may be related to species sensitivity to habitat change. We estimated the environmental suitability of the plant species Erythrostemon gilliesii and of its guild of hawkmoth pollinators. We considered the overlap of suitability maps of both partners as the environmental suitability of the interaction. We used a three-year record of ten E. gilliesii populations to calculate pollination intensity as the number of individuals that received pollen per population. In addition, for each population, we measured the distance to the high light pollution source around a buffer of 15 km radius. Finally, we predicted pollination intensity values for environmental suitability ranging from 0 to 1, and distance to high light pollution sources ranging from 0 to 56 Km. Pollination intensity decreased along an axis of increasing environmental suitability and increased with distance to sources of light pollution. The highest values of pollination intensity were observed at greatest distances to sources of light pollution and where environmental suitability of the interaction was lowest. The prediction model evidenced that, when environmental suitability was lowest, pollination intensity increased with distance to sources of high light pollution. However, when environmental suitability was intermediate or high, pollination intensity decreased away and until 28 km from the sources of high light pollution. Beyond 28 km from the sources of high light pollution, pollination intensity remained low and constant. Populations under conditions of low environmental suitability might be more likely to respond to disturbances that affect pollinators than populations under conditions of high environmental suitability.

Modeling the Pacific chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) ecological niche and future scenarios in the northern Peruvian Current System

To understand and characterize the Pacific chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) spatiotemporal distribution in the northern Peruvian Current System, this study characterized the ecological niche using the minimum volume ellipsoid (MVE) approach considering two meteorological conditions jointly: El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN). For this purpose, the species presence records collected by the Peruvian onboard observer program from 1997 to 2018 were used. All presence records were matched with the date (day/month/year) and location (longitude, latitude) of the corresponding oceanographic variables (sea surface temperature [SST], sea surface salinity [SSS], chlorophyll, and oxygen). Also, the future projected climate change effects on chub mackerel spatiotemporal distribution under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios by mid- (2040–2050) and end‐of‐the‐century (2090–2100) were investigated. Ellipsoid evaluations demonstrated that models calibrated with SST and SSS had good performance. Projections for EN conditions predicted areas with high environmental suitability close and along the Peruvian coast. Contrastingly, during LN these areas were extended to the oceanic zone. The projected future scenarios showed that for the RCP 4.5 scenario, environmental suitability maps were similar to those found in LN but with persistent distribution in south-central Peru. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, habitats tended to be coastal. Based on climate refugia –areas where the bulk of the species may aggregate under future environmental change with the potential to re-expand once the stress abates–, the RCP 4.5 scenario did not show changes in the hotspots; conversely, the RCP 8.5 scenario predicted a reduction of around 47% of hotspots from 2040–2050 to 2090–2100 at 10° S-18° S. Finally, the consideration of extreme conditions (EN and LN) in model calibration can potentially generate models with good performance allowing to better characterize species niche when the data is restricted by political boundaries. Nevertheless, further testing must be performed to assert this idea.

Potential distribution of critically endangered hammerhead sharks and overlap with the small-scale fishing fleet in the southern Gulf of Mexico

Understanding the degree to which fishing operations overlap with the distribution of exploited populations is essential for population assessments and in the formulation of management measures. Here we used ecological niche models to estimate hammerhead sharks’ potential distribution that allowed the first assessment of their overlap with small-scale fishing operations in the southern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The models were better than random models, with bathymetry as the most important predictor variable for bonnethead shark and average Chl-a for scalloped and great hammerheads. Shallow and intermediate waters of the GOM are of high environmental suitability for bonnethead shark and great hammerhead, and intermediate and deep waters within the continental shelf are more suitable for scalloped hammerhead. The spatial distribution of the small-scale fleet that operates on the western Yucatán Peninsula, southern GOM, had a high overlap with the estimated high environmental suitability of both bonnethead and great hammerhead sharks. We highlight the bonnethead shark, since its coastal habitat preference spans all ontogenetic stages, thus making it highly vulnerable to coastal anthropogenic impacts, including several small-scale fisheries.

Flexible and robust porous thermoplastic polyurethane/reduced graphene oxide monolith with special wettability for continuous oil/water separation in harsh environment

With the increase of severe environmental problems caused by oil spill and chemical leakage, there is an urgent necessity for efficient and durable oil/water separation materials with high environmental suitability. Here we developed a hierarchical porous superelastic thermoplastic polyurethane/reduced graphene oxide (TPU/RGO) monolith with superhydrophobicity/superoleophilicity for the continuous absorption of oils or organic solvents. The morphology investigation indicated that the three-dimensional porous structure of composite monoliths was definitely perfected by adding 1.5 wt% RGO, significantly improving hydrophobicity (155°) and mechanical property (compression strength of 307 kPa). In consequence, the TPU/RGO monolith could efficiently absorb different oils/organic solvents with high saturation absorption capacity (6.5–44.5 g g−1) and fast absorption speed (attaining equilibration within 15 s). And it possessed stable superhydrophobicity and absorption capacity in various pH (1–14), high/low temperature (0–90 °C) and strongly turbulent conditions. Furthermore, the composite monolith exhibited outstanding reversible compressibility (80% strain) and fatigue resistance (1000 cycles), endowing it with superior reusability by simple manual squeezing. More importantly, the flexible and robust monolith was capable of continuously and efficiently separating at least 15,000 times its own weight of oils or organic solvents from water with a peristaltic pump, showing huge potential for the large-scale cleanup of oily wastewater.

Predicting the Areas of Suitable Distribution for Zelkova serrata in China under Climate Change

Predicting the geographic distribution of a species together with its response to climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem sustainable development. Zelkova serrata is an excellent shelterbelt tree species that is used for soil and water conservation due to the fact of its well-developed root system, strong soil fixation, and wind resistance. However, the wild germplasm resources of Z. serrata have been increasingly depleted due to the fact of its weak ability to regenerate naturally and the unprecedented damage humans have caused to the natural habitats. The present work using Maxent aimed to model the current potential distribution of this species as well as in the future, assess how various environmental factors affect species distribution, and identify the shifts in the distribution of this species in various climate change scenarios. Our findings show habitat in provinces in the southern Qinling and Huai river basins have high environmental suitability. Temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and warmest quarter precipitation were the most important factors affecting its distribution. Under a climate change scenario, the appropriate habitat range showed northeastward expansion geographically. The results in the present work can lay the foundation for the cultivation and conservation of Z. serrata.

Predicting the global invasion of Drosophila suzukii to improve Australian biosecurity preparedness

Abstract Predicting biological invasions remains a challenge to applied ecologists and limits pre‐emptive management of biosecurity threats. In the last decade, spotted‐wing drosophila Drosophila suzukii has emerged as an internationally significant agricultural pest as it rapidly spread across Europe and the Americas. However, the underlying drivers of its global invasion remain unstudied, while countries like Australia, presently free from D. suzukii, require robust estimates of spread and establishment potential to aid development of effective preparedness strategies. Here, we analysed the ecoclimatic and human‐mediated drivers of the global invasion of D. suzukii to understand historical spread patterns and improve forecasts of future spread potential. Using a modular approach, climate‐driven population dynamics were linked in space via dispersal processes to simulate spread at continental scales. Combined with biological parameters measured in laboratory studies, the spread model was parameterized and validated on international spread data. Model accuracy was high and was able to predict 83% of regional presence–absence through time in the United States and, without further model fitting, 78% of the variation in the Europe incursion. Omitting human‐assisted spread from the model reduced predictability by over 20%, highlighting the large anthropogenic influence in this modern biological invasion. Economic activity (GDP) rather than human population density was more strongly associated with human‐mediated spread. Simulations predicted that eastern Australian coastal regions, particularly those near major cities with high economic activity, will result in the fastest spread of D. suzukii. Synthesis and applications. Incursions of Drosophila suzukii into Australia will have significant consequences for horticultural industries with the predicted speed of spread making eradication programs extremely difficult. However, the identified areas of significant fruit production, and high environmental suitability and economic activity will form a logical means for prioritizing industry preparedness. In light of our findings, a key component of preparedness strategies will be the ability of fruit producers to rapidly transition to effective management of D. suzukii.

Spatial risk analysis for the introduction and circulation of six arboviruses in the Netherlands

BackgroundArboviruses are a growing public health concern in Europe, with both endemic and exotic arboviruses expected to spread further into novel areas in the next decades. Predicting where future outbreaks will occur is a major challenge, particularly for regions where these arboviruses are not endemic. Spatial modelling of ecological risk factors for arbovirus circulation can help identify areas of potential emergence. Moreover, combining hazard maps of different arboviruses may facilitate a cost-efficient, targeted multiplex-surveillance strategy in areas where virus transmission is most likely. Here, we developed predictive hazard maps for the introduction and/or establishment of six arboviruses that were previously prioritized for the Netherlands: West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, louping-ill virus and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus.MethodsOur spatial model included ecological risk factors that were identified as relevant for these arboviruses by an earlier systematic review, including abiotic conditions, vector abundance, and host availability. We used geographic information system (GIS)-based tools and geostatistical analyses to model spatially continuous datasets on these risk factors to identify regions in the Netherlands with suitable ecological conditions for arbovirus introduction and establishment.ResultsThe resulting hazard maps show that there is spatial clustering of areas with either a relatively low or relatively high environmental suitability for arbovirus circulation. Moreover, there was some overlap in high-hazard areas for virus introduction and/or establishment, particularly in the southern part of the country.ConclusionsThe similarities in environmental suitability for some of the arboviruses provide opportunities for targeted sampling of vectors and/or sentinel hosts in these potential hotspots of emergence, thereby increasing the efficient use of limited resources for surveillance.

Predicting the environmental suitability and population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa.

Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. The geographical distribution and burden of podoconiosis in Africa are uncertain. We applied statistical modelling to the most comprehensive database compiled to date to predict the environmental suitability of podoconiosis in the African continent. By combining climate and environmental data and overlaying population figures, we predicted the environmental suitability and human population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa. Environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in 29 African countries. In the year 2020, the total population in areas suitable for podoconiosis is estimated at 114.5 million people, (95% uncertainty interval: 109.4–123.9) with 16.9 million in areas suitable for both lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis. Of the total 5,712 implementation units (typically second administrative-level units, such as districts) defined by the World Health Organization in Africa, 1,655 (29.0%) were found to be environmentally suitable for podoconiosis. The majority of implementation units with high environmental suitability are located in Angola (80, 4.8%), Cameroon (170, 10.3%), the DRC (244, 14.7%), Ethiopia (495, 29.9%), Kenya (217, 13.1%), Uganda (116, 7.0%) and Tanzania (112, 6.8%). Of the 1,655 environmentally suitable implementation units, 960 (58.0%) require more detailed community-level mapping. Our estimates provide key evidence of the population at risk and geographical extent of podoconiosis in Africa, which will help decision-makers to better plan more integrated intervention programmes.