Higher Rates Of Delinquency Research Articles

A Study on Loan Delinquency of the Self Help Group-Bank Linkage Programme in Rural Rajasthan

Abstract Research background Providing the microfinance to rural women is the prime concern of the government at central and state level in which the best microfinance programme is the Self Help Group Bank Linkage Programme. However, the Delinquency rate of the SHGBLP loan is on the higher side. As, borrowers do not make their loan repayments on time. Purpose The purpose of this research is to examine which types of self-help groups make timely repayments of an old loan. Also, to find out the different aspects of the loan delinquency rate which affect them and to find out the impact of self-help group maturity on loan repayment. Research methodology For this a total of 300 members were selected from the Udaipur and Banswara district of Rajasthan. Further, Tobit Regression has been applied to find out the factors which affect the loan delinquency percentages in the Self Help Group Bank Linkage Programme. Results The results highlighted that the maturity of the SHG group affects their repayment performance as old SHGs are functioning well in terms of repayment. The reason for the high delinquency rate is that the members had no surplus Income to repay back because of the failure of Business, natural calamities and medical issues. The members who are repaying the loan back on time are giving from their agriculture and enterprise profits. Novelty A lot of research has been carried out on the Impact of SHGBLP on many other factors but there is no research that has been done to find out why the programme has high loan delinquencies after being the best together with the impactful microfinance programme.

Recreational Cannabis Legalization and Proximity to Cannabis Retailers as Risk Factors for Adolescents' Cannabis Use.

Within-person studies are lacking regarding how recreational cannabis legalization (RCL) and the numbers of neighborhood cannabis retailers relate to adolescents' cannabis use. Study participants were 146 offspring (55% girls; 77% White non-Latinx) of men recruited in childhood from neighborhoods with high delinquency rates. Youth were assessed for past-year cannabis and alcohol use one or more times from ages 13 to 20years (age M[SD] = 16.4 [2.1] years across 422 observations), while they were living in Oregon or Washington from 2005 to 2019 (where cannabis retail stores opened to adults ages 21years and older in 2014 and 2015, respectively). We calculated distances between addresses of licensed cannabis retailers and participants' homes. Multilevel models that accounted for effects of age on cannabis use did not support that the number of retail stores within 2-, 5-, 10-, or 20-mile radii of adolescents' homes increased likelihood of past-year cannabis use at the within- or between-subjects levels. Likewise, primary models did not support a greater likelihood of cannabis use among youth whose adolescence coincided more fully with the post-RCL period. A secondary model suggested that after adjusting for adolescents' concurrent alcohol use as a marker of general substance use risk, RCL was associated with cannabis use (between-subjects B [95% CI] = .35 [.05-.66], p = .024). Further research is needed with larger prospective samples, at-risk subgroups, and as cannabis markets mature.

Risks of long-term auto loans

Long-term auto loans have become more popular in the last decade, and most auto loans originated after 2013 have terms longer than five years. We find that the choice of long-term auto loans is associated with larger origination amounts, and borrowers of long-term auto loans tend to be more credit constrained. After controlling for borrower risk factors available from credit bureau data and macroeconomic conditions, we find that auto loans with terms beyond five years have higher delinquency rates than shorter-term loans during each year in their lifetimes. We further find that the yield curves of auto loans are inverted, and the interest rates for auto loans of six or more years have increasingly become lower than those of shorter-term auto loans.

Risk in Loan Pools of GNMA-Guaranteed MBS: Evidence from Bank and Non-Bank Issuers

While the recent decade of changing mortgage origination is well documented, loan pools assembled by MBS issuers have yet to be examined. To address this void in the literature, we provide an overview of the securitization process to connect institutions issuing securities to the origination process and clarify distinctions between GNMA as compared to FNMA and FHMLC in the MBS issuance process. Then, using a proprietary database of all MBS issuers approved by GNMA as of December 2016, we focus on the role of regulatory status in the risk of securitized loan pools for GNMA-guaranteed MBS. We find non-bank GNMA-approved issuers pool riskier mortgages with higher debt-to-income ratios, higher delinquency rates, higher gross margins, and slower prepayment than traditional depository institutions issuing MBS. Although the GNMA liquidity guarantee for MBS servicers protects MBS investors, our findings have long-run implications for U.S. taxpayers.

Coaches’ perceptions of sport education: A response to precarity through a pedagogy of affect

ABSTRACT Purpose The aim of this study was to investigate coaches’ perceptions of using sport education (SE) for the first time with socially vulnerable children in order to explore its suitability for equipping young people living in precarity with the skills they need to take positive action to challenge their socially vulnerable backgrounds. In doing so, we want to explore what experiences of learning to use SE these coaches had and what their perspectives of the children’s learning were. Settings and participants The study developed in a community-based program in three economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods with high rates of delinquency in a city in Central Spain. The programme is run by a non-governmental organization and is funded by several public institutions and private donations. The study included three youth workers who acted as coaches and 31 nine- to eleven-year-olds from different ethnic groups. Programme The SE season comprised 36 one-hour sessions which included an introduction to SE and the activity called ringo (two lessons), a pre-season (14 lessons), a season (18 lessons) and culminating event preparation and celebration (two lessons). Ringo is a net game, which was chosen to improve participation. Data collection/analysis Four focus groups were conducted with the coaches and an open analysis format was followed, using open-ended questions. The first author also kept a diary of his experience as a participant observer, including field notes and participation in focus groups. The data were transcribed verbatim and analysed through thematic analysis. Findings Three major results were found. First, although coaches perceived that sport had a great potential for children to get several benefits, the quality of the pedagogical strategies they used to implement before the study did not allow them to reach those benefits. Second, SE gave the coaches the possibility to enact an ethic of care with participant children; emotional labour played a key role in that process, allowing coaches to care both for children and for themselves. Third, coaches appreciated how SE features, especially competition, teams, festivity, and the culminating event, favoured motivation and engagement, what improved behaviour and the assumption of roles responsibilities. Conclusions Sport per se is not enough to teach ethical conduct. However, a quality programme which exposes young people to the stimuli they need, and efficient physical educators who can develop the programme properly and with a coherent attitude are necessary. Pre-service education for any future professional working with youth from socially vulnerable backgrounds (teachers, coaches, youth workers) should consider the need of teaching pedagogies of affect like SE as well as the development of an ethic of care and emotional labour.

The Prospective Impact of Family Functioning and Parenting Practices on Court-Involved Youth's Substance Use and Delinquent Behavior.

Court-involved youth exhibit high rates of psychiatric symptoms, substance use, and delinquency, yet little is known about the contributing roles of caregiver and family factors. The current study examined whether family functioning and parental monitoring mediate the relationship between caregiver and youth psychiatric symptoms (at first court contact) and youth substance use and delinquency (two years later). Participants were 400 first-time offending court-involved youth (Mage = 14.5 years; 57.3% male; 45.6% non-Latinx White, 42.0% Latinx) and an involved caregiver (Mage = 41.0 years; 87.2% female; 53.0% non-Latinx White, 33.8% Latinx). Structural equation modeling revealed that caregiver and youth psychiatric symptoms were prospectively associated with worse family functioning, which was in turn related to higher levels of youth delinquency and greater likelihood of substance use. The results support the notion of addressing the needs of justice-involved youth and families holistically rather than treating youth as "the problem" in isolation.

High delinquency rates in Brazil's Minha Casa Minha Vida housing program: Possible causes and necessary reforms

Brazil's main housing program, Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV), has contracted the construction of over 3 million housing units since 2009, providing access to homeownership for low and middle-income households through a combination of credit, subsidies and guarantees. In this paper, we analyze disaggregated delinquency information at the project level for the section of the program that serves households in the lowest income range (Faixa 1). Our analysis of program performance in six metropolitan regions shows an overall level of delinquency of 28% as of the end of 2015. We identify four hypotheses to explain this elevated level of delinquency: the peripheral location of the units, insufficient income to cover ongoing costs, moral hazard in the management of the program, and organized crime in some projects. Our analysis shows that in 4 of the 6 regions, low-income projects in peripheral locations exhibit substantially higher non-payment levels and that lower income households have higher levels of delinquency. Based on our analysis, we recommend modifications to program design, including the inclusion of location criteria in subsidy scaling. The findings provide evidence of the limits of MCMV Faixa 1's approach to solving Brazilian low-income housing needs and contribute to an emerging body of literature pointing to the importance of location in housing programs.

Risks of Long-Term Auto Loans

Long-term auto loans have become increasingly popular in the past decade. We find that consumers use these loans to obtain larger auto loans with lower monthly payments. After controlling for the observed risk factors typically available during the underwriting process, auto loans with maturities beyond five years have higher delinquency rates than shorter termed loans during each year in their lifetimes. These findings suggest that the financial constraints faced by borrowers of long-term auto loans are not fully captured by the borrower characteristics readily observable. We further find that the yield curve among auto loans is inverted, suggesting that a significant fraction of relative credit risks among auto loans are not reflected in pricing.

Typologies and Characteristics of Adolescent-Peer Delinquency using Latent Class Analysis

Objective Delinquent peers are important predictors of adolescent delinquent behavior. Few studies have classified individuals into groups based on patterns of delinquent behavior among youth and their peers. This study identified latent groups based on adolescent-peer delinquency and examined psychosocial characteristics of each latent group. Methods First, the study employed latent class analysis based on a nationally representative data of South Korean middle school students (N = 2,277). Both adolescent and peer delinquent behaviors comprised 13 items in the questionnaire that was self-reported by adolescents. Second, the study used multivariate regression models to analyze psychosocial symptoms of latent groups and conducted Wald tests to compare differences among latent groups. Results Patterns of adolescent-peer delinquency were classified into six latent groups. “Mutual total delinquent group (1.2%)” showed high rates in most delinquent experiences. “Mutual status delinquent group (5.7%)” mainly experienced status delinquency, “Mutual violence delinquent group (5.3%)” showed high rates of violent delinquency. “Peer-only total high delinquent group (3.8%)” reported friends to have engaged in all types of delinquency and “Peer-only total medium delinquent group (11.8%)” reported peer involvement in multiple status and few violent delinquency. Finally, “low risk group (72.2%)” reported low rates of delinquency for themselves and their friends. Regression analysis showed that every “mutual” delinquent group presented significantly worse psychosocial problems than the “low risk group.” Conclusion Using person centered latent class analysis, this study classified six latent classes while considering both delinquent agents and various types of delinquency and investigated specific groups with greater risk of psychosocial problems. Keywords: juvenile delinquency, delinquent peer, delinquent agent, delinquent type, latent class analysis

내부통제 취약기업 예측과 특성에 관한 연구 - 상장기업군과 비상장기업군 중심으로 -

본 연구는 취약한 내부통제시스템을 형성하고 있을 가능성이 높은 기업들을 예측하는 적합한 모형을 형성하고, 이를 기반으로 취약기업의 특성을 살펴보고자 했다. 분석에 사용된 자료는 K_금융기관과 대출거래가 이루어졌던 상장법인과 비상장법인을 대상으로 하였다. 주요 결과로, 금융기관이 내부통제가 취약한 기업을 예측하기 위해서는 로짓모형에 비해 판별모형이 적합하다는 결론에 도달했다. 판별모형이 내부통제 취약기업을 취약기업으로 예측하는 정확도가 높고, 취약기업을 정상기업으로 잘못분류 할 오류가 낮았기 때문이다. 내부통제가 취약한 기업의 주요특성은 낮은 신용도, 낮은 자산건전성, 높은 연체율, 낮은 영업활동현금흐름, 높은 부채비율, 그리고 부(-)의 매출액영업이익률을 형성하는 기업으로 나타났다. 본 내부통제 취약예측모형을 포함한 연구결과는 자료구성의 한계로 연구가 이루어지지 않았던 비상장기업군까지 확장하였기에, 금융기관이 내부통제 취약가능성이 높은 기업을 사전적으로 예측하여 자산손실을 예방하는 도구로 이용할 수 있을 것이다. The propose of study is to examine the characteristics of companies with high possibility to form an internal control weakness using forecasting model. This study use the actual listed/unlisted companies' data from K_financial institution. The first conclusion is that discriminant model is more valid than logit model to predict internal control weak companies. A discriminant model for predicting the vulnerability of internal control has high classification accuracy and has low the Type II error that is incorrectly classifying vulnerable companies to normal companies. The second conclusion is that the characteristic of weak internal control companies have a low credit rating, low asset soundness assessment, high delinquency rates, lower operating cash flow, high debt ratios, and minus operating profit to the net sales ratio. As not only a case of listed companies but unlisted companies which did not occur in previous studies are extended in this study, research results including the forecasting model can be used as a predictive tool of financial institutions predicting companies with high potential internal control weakness to prevent asset losses.

Financial Assessment of A Credit Union In West Timor, Indonesia

The study is an assessment of the financial performance of a credit union in West Timor, Indonesia using the PEARLS Monitoring System established by the World Council of Credit Union. The credit union is run by the Catholic diocese that envisioned prosperity to its members coming from different religious denominations and from low income families thus the need to recommend improvements to ensure its sustainability and service to the community. The study analyzed financial performance from 2007 to 2012 and determined members’ satisfaction of services rendered. It used semi-structured survey instruments, personal interview, and focus group discussion to gather data. Findings of the study revealed that members’ savings were not sufficiently protected. However, members were very satisfied with almost all of the services offered by the credit union. The study concludes that there is a need to improve its portfolio quality and liquidity management as evidenced by a high rate of loan delinquency. To ensure more sustainable operations, it is recommended that management exert effort to increase net loans receivables but at the same time address members’ high delinquency rate for loans. Additional investment on liquid assets is suggested for loan portfolio to generate more revenue and increase the net institutional capital. It is further recommended that future studies would include governance and organizational performance particularly on credit management processes to complement the results of this study.

Financial literacy, risky mortgages, and delinquency in the US during the financial crisis

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether low financial literacy is associated with the use of risky mortgages and delinquency.Design/methodology/approachA probit analysis is used to analyze the results of a survey of US homeowners.FindingsIt was found that borrowers with low financial literacy are more likely to have a risky mortgage and be delinquent in their mortgage payments.Originality/valueThe results indicate that many risky loan borrowers may be unable to evaluate the risks inherent in the mortgage, which contributes to high delinquency rates. These results suggest the need for education and caution in the use of risky mortgages.

Hirschi’s Social Bonding Theory Nearly 45 Years Later: A comparison of a traditional, contemporary and hybrid model

Travis Hirschi (1969) developed social bonding theory. The main premise of his argument was that conformity, not deviance, is what needs explaining. The present study further investigated the following aspects of Hirschi's social bonding theory: attachment to parents, attachment to school, involvement in conventional activities, and belief in the law/legal system. The goal of the present study is to fill a gap in the literature by conducting an analysis that compares Hirschi's traditional measures to contemporary measures using a single independent national sample. The present study built three models: the Traditional Hirschi Model utilizes the measures indicated by Hirschi's 1969 book, Causes of Delinquency; the Contemporary Model utilizes contemporary scales gathered from a literature review; and the Hybrid Model is an amalgamation that combines the strongest components of the two prior models.HIRSCHI'S SOCIAL BONDING THEORYHirschi writes that attachment to conventional parents is a central component of control theory. Indirect parental control is theorized to be the primary mechanism that prevents delinquency. Attachment to school is also central to control theory. He defines attachment to school as how much a student likes school and has positive feelings about his/her teacher. Regarding the involvement bond, Hirschi emphasizes the importance of involvement in school-based activities such as studying. Moreover, Hirschi argues that the youth at highest risk of delinquency are those involved in the activities of working class adults. Hirschi makes the case that the belief bond is a belief in and respect for the rules of society. Thus, a weak or broken belief bond increases a person's likelihood of deviance.RESEARCH USING HIRSCHI'S ORIGINAL MEASURESThis section will review the literature that uses the same or slightly altered measures and questions that Hirschi used. Research on the attachment to parents bond shows that youth with weak bonds with parents have higher rates of delinquency (Hirschi, 1969). Research has confirmed that a strong family attachment is associated with lower levels of delinquency (Kim., Kwak, and Yun, 2010; Krohn, Massey, Skinner, and Lauer, 1983; Ozbay, and Ozcan, 2006), and criminal offences (Chui and Chan 2012; Ozbay, and Ozcan, 2006). Hirschi found that weak attachment to school is associated with a higher risk of deviance. Researchers have also found that there is a negative relationship between school attachment and deviance (Ozbay, and Ozcan, 2006), and violent and property crime (Chui and Chan 2012). Research on the involvement bond found that the more time students spend on homework, the less likely they are to partake in deviant acts (Hirschi 1969). Research also found that if adolescents rushed into adulthood by becoming involved in leisure activities typically favored by working class adults, they were more likely to commit delinquent acts (Hirschi 1969). Research on the belief bond found that the more people believe in society's rules, the less likely they are to partake in deviance (Chapple, McQuillan, and Berdahl 2005; Costello and Vowell, 1999; Herschi 1969; Oxbay and Ozcan 2009; Ozbay, and Ozcan, 2006).RESEARCH THAT USES CONTEMPORARY MEASURES OF HIRSCHIS'S THEORYThis section will review the studies that have stayed true to Hirschi's theory and his conceptualizations, but have measured said concepts using contemporary scales. Contemporary research finds that as family bonds get stronger, the risk of delinquency gets weaker (Chen, Thrane, and Adams, 2012; Hay, Meldrum, and Piquero, 2013; HeavyRunner-Rioux, and Hollist, 2010; Junger and Marshall, 1997; Menard, and Grotpeter, 2011; Orcutt and Schwabe, 2012). Research found that a weak attachment to school is associated with a higher risk of deviance (Haines and Case 2004; Hay et al, 2013; Li, 2004), and crime (Chen, 2009). Research on the involvement bond and extracurricular activities found that partaking in extracurricular activities reduces the chances of partaking in deviant behavior (Booth et al 2008; Huebner and Betts 2002). …

Relationships Between Delinquency and Substance Use Among Adolescents Emancipating from Foster Care

Adolescents emancipating from foster care exhibit high rates of both delinquency and substance use, although it is less clear how these behaviors relate to one another. We aimed to examine the reciprocal relationships between these risk behaviors while accounting for relevant child welfare factors. We use data from the Multi-Site Evaluation of Foster Youth Programs to explore longitudinal associations between delinquent behaviors and substance use (tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana) among youths ages 17 and 18 (N = 429). Delinquency at age 17 was a positive predictor of substance use at age 18, after controlling for baseline use of substances. In contrast, substance use at age 17 was not predictive of increased delinquency at age 18 after baseline delinquency was controlled. Findings indicate that among youths emancipating from the foster care system, delinquent behavior might increase vulnerability for future substance use, as opposed to the latter.

The Vulnerability of Minority Homeowners in the Housing Boom and Bust

This paper examines mortgage outcomes for a large sample of individual home purchases and refinances linked to credit scores in seven major US markets. Among those with similar credit scores and loan attributes, black and Hispanic homeowners had much higher rates of delinquency and default in the downturn. These estimated differences are especially pronounced for loans originated near the peak of the housing boom. These findings suggest that black and Hispanic homeowners drawn into the market near the peak were especially vulnerable to adverse economic shocks and raise concerns about homeownership as a mechanism for reducing racial disparities in wealth. (JEL D14, J15, R23, R31, R38)

The Dynamics of Adjustable-Rate Subprime Mortgage Default: A Structural Estimation

We present a dynamic structural model of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) borrowers making payment decisions taking into account possible consequences of different degrees of delinquency from their lenders. We empirically implement the model using unique data sets that contain information on borrowers' mortgage payment history, their broad balance sheets, and lender responses. Our investigation of the factors that drive borrowers' decisions reveals that subprime ARMs are not all alike. For loans originated in 2004 and 2005, the interest rate resets associated with ARMs, as well as the housing and labor market conditions were not as important in borrowers' delinquency decisions as in their decisions to pay off their loans. For loans originated in 2006, interest rate resets, housing price declines, and worsening labor market conditions all contributed importantly to their high delinquency rates. Counterfactual policy simulations reveal that even if the Libor rate c ould be lowered to zero by aggressive traditional monetary policies, it would have a limited effect on reducing the delinquency rates. We find that automatic modification mortgage designs under which the monthly payment or the principal balance of the loans are automatically reduced when housing prices decline can be effective in reducing both delinquency and foreclosure. Importantly, we find that automatic modification mortgages with a cushion, under which the monthly payment or principal balance reductions are triggered only when housing price declines exceed a certain percentage may result in a Pareto improvement in that borrowers and lenders are both made better off than under the baseline, with a lower delinquency and foreclosure rates. Our counterfactual analysis also suggests that limited commitment power on the part of the lenders to loan modification policies may be an important reason for the relatively small rate of modifications observed during the housing crisis.

Understanding Persistence and Desistance in Crime and Risk Behaviors in Adulthood: Implications for Theory and Prevention.

Recent theoretical advances related to the development and course, including persistence and desistance, of antisocial behaviors and conduct problems, violent behaviors, and related problem behaviors are discussed. Integrative theoretical models, including the Dynamic Developmental Systems (DDS), are discussed. Aspects of the DDS model regarding the development of and change in antisocial behavior and violence across adolescence and early adulthood are illustrated with findings from the Oregon Youth Study, an ongoing, long-term examination of the causes and consequences of antisocial behavior for a community-based sample of men (and their romantic partners) who were raised in neighborhoods with high delinquency rates. Preventive implications of the model are discussed.

An Assessment of the Guidance and Counselling Programme in Secondary Schools at Mzilikazi District in Bulawayo Metropolitan Province

This study sought to assess the Guidance and CounsellingProgrammeinMzilikazi District situatedof the Bulawayo Metropolitan Province. The purpose of the study was to determine the extent to which Guidance and Counselling services prepare secondary school students to achieve social, personal and academic development and make informed career decisions compatible with their individual needs and abilities. Schools were mandated to provide and direct adolescent learners away from participating in anti-social behaviours such as drug and alcohol abuse, prostitution and irresponsible sexual behaviours such as the spread of HIV/AIDS pandemic, homosexuality, gangsterism, violence, and truancy. A descriptive survey was chosen for this study. Survey questionnaires with closed and open-ended questions and semi-interview guides were used to solicit views, perceptions and opinions on the benefits of Guidance and CounsellingProgrammes. A population of 6000 students and 150 teachers was divided into categories through stratified random sampling. One hundred students, thirty teachers and five heads of secondary schools participated in the study. The study revealed that 80% of the secondary schools in Mzilikazi District had not yet complied with the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Educationon the implementation of the programme. Lack of qualified teachers, stationary, books and relevant facilities like counselling rooms were found to be major barriers inhibiting the implementation of Guidance and Counselling services. The findings also revealed that most of the students are ignorant of the existence of such services which could be the major cause of high rates of delinquency, truancy, alcohol and drug abuse and teenage pregnancies. Therefore, the study concluded that secondary students have not benefited from the programme. Recommendations made include that the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education should provide adequate resources before considering the implementation of Guidance and CounsellingProgramme in schools.

Delinquency, aggression, and attention‐related problem behaviors differentially predict adolescent substance use in individuals diagnosed with ADHD

To measure the degree to which childhood and adolescent ratings of aggression, attention, and delinquency are related to adolescent substance use outcomes in youth diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Childhood externalizing disorders have been shown to predict adolescent maladaptive substance use, but few studies have examined the differential predictive utility of two distinct dimensions of externalizing behavior: aggression and delinquency. Ninety-seven clinically referred children with ADHD initially took part in this research protocol when they were on average 9.05 years of age, and were seen again on average 9.30 years later. Participants' parents were administered the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) at baseline and follow-up, and youth completed the Youth Self Report (YSR) in adolescence. At follow-up, substance use severity and diagnosis were assessed using semi-structured psychiatric interviews administered separately to parents and adolescents. Linear and binary logistic regressions were used to determine the association of CBCL- and YSR-rated attention problems, aggression, and delinquency to adolescent substance use. Childhood and adolescent delinquency, but not aggression, as rated by parents and youths, predicted adolescent substance use disorders and substance use severity (all p < .05). After accounting for the associations of delinquency and aggression with adolescent substance use, ratings of attention problems in childhood and adolescence were negatively associated with substance use outcome. Children with ADHD who exhibit high rates of delinquency are at risk for later substance use and may require targeted prevention, intervention, and follow-up services.

Adolescent Delinquency and Antisocial Tendencies as Precursors to Adult Violent Offending

Studies on adult sex and violent offenders have found high rates of adolescent delinquency, while early delinquency has been shown to be significantly associated with adult offending. The examined subsample (n = 123) of a longitudinal prospective study (n = 6,315) includes all men who at the age of 19 had an entry in the criminal records. During the observation period of 34 years, 68.3% of the sample had been reconvicted as adults, 23.6% for violent or sex offenses. The odds of adult sex or violent offending were 2.8 times higher for those who had committed a violent offense in adolescence and 1.05 times higher for any offense committed before the age of 19. The characteristics of criminal history showed the highest discriminative values (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.61-0.65). The most important finding of this study was that characteristics of adolescent delinquency predicted adult violent or sex offending, whereas socioeconomic and psychiatric characteristics did not.