High Daily Maximum Temperatures Research Articles

Impact of wildfire smoke on ozone concentrations using a Generalized Additive model in Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, 2006–2022

ABSTRACT We investigated the impact of wildfires on maximum daily 8-hr average ozone concentrations (MDA8 O3) at four sites in Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah for May to September for 2006–2022. Smoke days, which were identified by a combination of overhead satellite smoke detection and surface PM2.5 data and accounted for approximately 9% of the total number of days, exhibited O3 levels 6.8 to 8.9 ppb higher than no-smoke days and were predominantly characterized by high daily maximum temperatures and low relative humidity. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was developed to quantify the impact of wildfire contributions to O3. The GAM, which provides smooth functions that make the interpretation of relationships more intuitive, employed 17 predictors and demonstrated reliable performance in various evaluation metrics. The mean of the residuals for all sites was approximately zero for the training and cross-validation data and 5.1 ppb for smoke days. We developed three approaches to estimate the contribution of smoke to O3 from the model residuals. These generate a minimum and maximum contribution for each smoke day. The average of the minimum and maximum wildfire contributions to O3 for the SLC sites was 5.1 and 8.5 ppb, respectively. Between 2006 and 2022, an increasing trend in the wildfire contributions to O3 was observed in SLC. Moreover, trends of the fourth-highest MDA8 O3 before and after removing the wildfire contributions to O3 at the SLC Hawthorne site in 2006–2022 were quite different. Whereas the unadjusted data do not meet the current O3 standard, after removing the contributions from wildfires the SLC region is close to achieving levels that are consistent with meeting the O3 standard. We also found that the wildfire contribution during smoke days was particularly high under conditions of high temperature, high PM2.5 concentration, and low cloud fraction. Implications: In this study, we quantified the impact of wildfires on maximum daily 8-hr average ozone concentrations (MDA8 O3) in Salt Lake City, Utah, using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The GAM results demonstrate the importance of wildfires as contributors to O3 air pollution. Our results suggest that states could use the GAM approach to assist in quantifying the wildfire contribution to MDA8 O3 under the U.S. EPA exceptional events rule. These findings also highlight the need for strategies to manage wildfires and their subsequent impacts on air quality in an era of climate warming.

Does drought stress eliminate the benefit of elevated CO2 on soybean yield? Using an improved model to link crop and soil water relations

Crop simulation models are indispensable tools that facilitate studies to assess climate impacts and adaptation responses, but have not been adequately tested in terms of accurately predicting crop growth and water stress responses to high carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2]. The soybean model, GLYCIM, previously modified with a coupled leaf-level gas exchange – energy balance model, was integrated with a two-dimensional convective-diffusive root growth module which linked soil and leaf water potentials with the regulation of stomatal conductance. We evaluated the accuracy of this modified GLYCIM using experimental data from a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site, SoyFACE, and used the calibrated model to quantify current and projected elevated CO2 effects on soybean yields in the United States (US) Midwest. The model accurately matched SoyFACE observed data including canopy temperature (RMSE, 2.26 -2.42 °C; IA, 0.89-0.90), photosynthesis rate (RMSE, 6.33 -12.88 µmol m−2 s−1; IA, 0.82-0.92), seasonal LAI (RMSE, 0.96 -1.08 cm2 cm−2; IA, 0.91-0.93), biomass (RMSE, 2.06 -2.34 Mg ha−1; IA, 0.87-0.90), soil water contents (RMSE, 5.42 -7.82 %; IA, 0.80-0.85) and root length (RMSE, 2.12 -5.64 m plant−1; IA, 0.70-0.86). GLYCIM also reproduced the observed declining response of yield to CO2 fertilization with increasing drought. Using an ensemble of five climate model projections, GLYCIM showed that the CO2 fertilization effect on yield was highest in northern counties and declined in southern and the western counties by late 21st century in response to increased drought characterized by higher daily maximum temperature and decreased rainfall. This study highlights the need to continue to test and improve crop models and use geospatially referenced adaptive strategies to capitalize the benefits from elevated [CO2] to better counteract increasing drought.

Temperature and convictions: evidence from India

AbstractHigh temperatures have been shown to affect human cognition and decision-making in a variety of settings. In this paper, we explore the extent to which higher temperatures affect judicial decision-making in India. We use data on judicial decisions from the Indian eCourt platform, merged with high-resolution gridded daily weather data. We estimate causal effects by leveraging a fixed effects framework. We find that high daily maximum temperatures raise the likelihood of convictions and these results are robust to numerous controls and specifications. Our findings contribute to a growing literature that documents that the negative impacts of rising temperatures are often more severe in low- and middle-income countries.

Impact Analysis of Super Typhoon 2114 ‘Chanthu’ on the Air Quality of Coastal Cities in Southeast China Based on Multi-Source Measurements

The northward typhoon configuration along the southeast coast of China (TCN-SEC) is one of the key circulation patterns influencing the coastal cities in southeast China (CCSE). Here, we analyzed the air quality in CCSE during the high-incidence typhoon period from 2019 to 2021. Multi-source measurements were carried out to explore the impact of super typhoon 2114 ‘Chanthu’ on the air quality in CCSE. The results showed that the TCN-SEC and its surrounding weather situation had a favorable impact on the increase in pollutant concentration in CCSE, especially on the increase in O3 concentration. From 13 September to 17 September 2021, affected by the cyclonic shear in the south of super typhoon 2114 ‘Chanthu,’ the strong wind near the ground, stable relative humidity, strong precipitation, and the significantly reduced wind speed had a substantial effect on PM10, PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 concentrations. Calm and light air near the ground, weak precipitation, high daily maximum temperatures, and minimum relative humidity may provide favorable meteorological conditions for the accumulation of O3 precursors and photochemical reactions during the day, resulting in the daily peak values of O3 exceeding 160 μg/m3. The evolution of wind, relative humidity, and boundary layer height could play an important role in the variations in PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations by influencing pollutant accumulation or diffusion. It was suggested that the atmospheric structure of horizontal stability and vertical mixing below 1500 m could play a significant role in the accumulation and vertical distribution of ozone. The results highlight the important role of typhoons in the regional environment and provide a scientific basis for further application of multi-source observation data, as well as air pollution control.

Land cover and NDVI are important predictors in habitat selection along migration for the Golden-crowned Sparrow, a temperate-zone migrating songbird

BackgroundMigrating passerines in North America have shown sharp declines. Understanding habitat selection and threats along migration paths are critical research needs, but details about migrations have been limited due to the difficulty of tracking small birds. Recent technological advances of tiny GPS-tags provide new opportunities to delineate fine-scale movements in small passerines during a life stage that has previously been inherently difficult to study.MethodsWe investigated habitat selection along migration routes for a temperate-zone migratory passerine, the Golden-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia atricapilla), given GPS tags on California wintering grounds. We used a resource selection function combined with conditional logistic regression to compare matched sets of known stopover locations and available but unused locations to determine how land cover class, vegetation greenness and climate variables influence habitat selection during migration. We also provide general migration descriptions for this understudied species including migration distance, duration, and elevation, and repeated use of stopover areas.ResultsWe acquired 22 tracks across 19 individuals, with a total of 541 valid spring and fall migration locations. Birds traveled to breeding grounds in Alaska and British Columbia along coastal routes, selecting for shrubland and higher vegetation greenness in both migration seasons as well as grasslands during fall migration. However, model interactions showed they selected sites with lower levels of greenness when in forest (both seasons) and shrubland (fall only), which may reflect their preference for more open habitats or represent a trade-off in selection between habitat type and productivity. Birds also selected for locations with higher daily maximum temperature during spring migration. Routes during spring migration were lower in elevation on average, shorter in duration, and had fewer long stopovers than in fall migration. For two birds, we found repeated use of the same stopover areas in spring and fall migration.ConclusionsUsing miniaturized GPS, this study provides new insight into habitat selection along migration routes for a common temperate-zone migrating songbird, contributing to a better understanding of full annual cycle models, and informing conservation efforts. Golden-crowned Sparrows selected for specific habitats along migration routes, and we found previously unknown behaviors such as repeated use of the same stopover areas by individuals across different migratory seasons.

Trends in Weather Conditions and Performance by Age Groups Over the History of the Berlin Marathon.

The effect of different environmental conditions such as temperature, wind, barometric pressure, and precipitation has been well investigated in elite marathoners, but not by age categories (i.e., age group marathoners). The aim of the study was to investigate the potential influence of environmental conditions such as temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure on marathon performance in age group marathoners competing in the ‘Berlin Marathon’ from 1974 to 2019. A total of 869,474 valid finisher records were available for analysis, of which 711,136 correspond to males and 158,338 to females. The influence of temperature, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on marathon race times was investigated in age group marathoners grouped in 5-year-intervals. Within the 46 years of Berlin marathons under investigation, there was some level of precipitation for 18 years, and 28 years without any rain. Sunshine was predominant in 25 of the events, whilst in the other 21 years, cloud cover was predominant. Marathon race times were significantly and positively correlated with age (i.e., older runners were slower than younger runners) where the correlation was higher for males than for females. Marathon race times were significantly and positively correlated with both the hours of sunshine and the daily maximum temperature. The fastest marathon runners (meaning the minimum times) achieved the fastest race times on race days with higher maximum temperatures (i.e., 15–30°C). Daily maximum temperatures showed an influence on age group marathoners from age group 35–40 years and older. Higher precipitation levels impaired performance across most age groups. In summary, higher daily maximum temperatures (i.e., >15°C) and higher precipitation levels impaired performance of master marathoners (i.e., 35–40 years and older) competing in the ‘Berlin Marathon’ in the last 45 years. Master marathoners should start in marathon races with temperatures < 15°C and no precipitation in order to achieve a fast marathon race time.

Wildfire impacts on forest microclimate vary with biophysical context

AbstractIncreasing wildfire activity in western North America has the potential to remove forest canopy cover over large areas, increasing the vulnerability of understory plants and juvenile trees to microclimatic extremes. To understand the impacts of wildfire on forest microclimatic buffering, we monitored daily temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in 33 plots over the first two growing seasons following two wildfires from 2017. The Lolo Peak and Sunrise fires occurred during a regionally extensive fire season, burning mixed‐conifer and subalpine forests across complex mountainous topography in western Montana. Sensors were deployed from June to September in 2018 and 2019 in sites stratified by aspect, elevation, and fire severity (unburned, moderate, high) to capture a range of forest types, biophysical contexts, and fire effects. Loss of canopy and understory vegetation had marked effects on microclimate: On average, sites burned at high severity had 3.7°C higher daily maximum temperatures and 0.81 kPa higher daily maximum VPD relative to paired unburned sites. Differences between burned and unburned sites were most pronounced when ambient temperatures were high, across diurnal and seasonal time scales. Differences were also more pronounced at sites with less canopy cover, more bare ground postfire, and greater long‐term water availability (i.e., low climatic water deficit). Our results reveal fire‐caused changes in microclimate extremes that are biologically meaningful for the postfire establishment of tree seedlings and understory vegetation. These effects depend strongly on biophysical context, with cool‐wet forests more vulnerable to fire‐caused changes in microclimate compared with warm‐dry settings. Our results further highlight the functional importance of standing dead trees for moderating surface temperature in postfire environments. Anticipating forest ecosystem responses to increased warming and wildfire activity, and the potential for fire to catalyze vegetation changes, thus requires considering the substantial impacts of fire on microclimate.

High temperatures drive offspring mortality in a cooperatively breeding bird.

An improved understanding of life-history responses to current environmental variability is required to predict species-specific responses to anthopogenic climate change. Previous research has suggested that cooperation in social groups may buffer individuals against some of the negative effects of unpredictable climates. We use a 15-year dataset on a cooperative breeding arid zone bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor, to test (i) whether environmental conditions and group size correlate with survival of young during three development stages (egg, nestling, fledgling) and (ii) whether group size mitigates the impacts of adverse environmental conditions on survival of young. Exposure to high mean daily maximum temperatures (mean Tmax) during early development was associated with reduced survival probabilities of young in all three development stages. No young survived when mean Tmax > 38°C, across all group sizes. Low survival of young at high temperatures has broad implications for recruitment and population persistence in avian communities given the rapid pace of advancing climate change. Impacts of high temperatures on survival of young were not moderated by group size, suggesting that the availability of more helpers in a group is unlikely to buffer against compromised offspring survival as average and maximum temperatures increase with rapid anthropogenic climate change.

Impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming on aircraft takeoff performance in China

Associated with global warming, climate extremes such as extreme temperature will significantly increase. Understanding how climate change will impact the airflights is important to the planning of future flight operations. In this study, the impacts of 1.5 and 2 degree’s global warming on the aircraft takeoff performance in China are investigated using a unique climate projection data from an international collaboration project named HAPPI. It is found that the mean summer daily maximum temperature, which is a major factor that affects the flight through changing the aircraft’s takeoff weight, will increase significantly with magnitude less than 1.5 °C over most parts of China except for the Tibetan Plateau. The half a degree additional global warming will lead to higher extreme temperature in the arid and semi-arid western China, the Tibetan Plateau and the northeastern China, while the change in eastern China is weak. Five airports including Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming, Lasa and Urumqi will see ∼1.0°–2.0 °C (1.4°–3.0 °C) higher daily maximum temperature under 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) scenario. The half-degree additional warming will lead to a shift toward higher extreme temperature in these five sites. For both 1.5° and 2.0 °C scenarios, the number of weight-restriction days will increase significantly at 3 airports including Beijing, Shanghai, and Lasa. Urumqi will witness an increase of weight-restriction days only in 2.0 °C future.

Environmental and management factors contributing to variability in flesh colour of a red kiwifruit cultivar in New Zealand

Abstract Consistency of flesh colouration is important for commercial acceptance of red-fleshed Actinidia chinensis cultivars, but colour variation between and within orchards is widely reported. Physiological and environmental factors reported to influence this variability include parent cane and shoot type, ploidy of pollen parent, and high temperatures, specifically cumulative time above 25 °C over the growing season. However, the impacts of temperature in a temperate climate (e.g. New Zealand) on colour variability have not been explored. Light, a commonly reported influence on anthocyanin expression in other plants, does not directly influence red kiwifruit colour but the indirect effects of light exposure are unknown. This study explored the colour variability found in eight New Zealand red kiwifruit orchards spread across five regions and examined correlations of environmental conditions (temperature and light exposure) with fruit colour. Two harvests were collected from each orchard in 2014, with two further harvests being conducted in one orchard in 2015. It was found that the variation between orchards and regions was larger than within orchards but no clear regional patterns existed. A significant relationship existed between softer fruit and stronger red colouration, measured by hue angle and outer pericarp colour score. A significant relationship also existed between increased flesh colour and higher number of leaf layers, lower estimated light exposure, and paler skin colour, with skin colour score having the largest effect on flesh colour. No significant correlations between temperature in March and colour expression were found, but three out of the four lower colour orchards had significantly more hours above 25 °C during March. Collectively, these data suggest that full colour development may be promoted directly by carbohydrate supply from a denser canopy and is probably negatively affected by excessive fruit temperatures that may be more common under poorly-developed canopies or in areas with high daily maximum temperatures.

Agronomic and environmental causes of yield and nitrogen use efficiency gaps in Chinese rice farming systems

Abstract Yield (YG) and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) gap analysis is a key tool in addressing the sustainable intensification of agricultural systems. Distinguishing and quantifying the underlying agronomic and environmental causes of these gaps is as important as estimating their magnitude. We applied a field experimental framework that allowed us to partition YGs and NUE gaps due to crop management, climatic factors and/or inherent soil productivity. YG and NUE gaps were determined as the differences between yields and NUE under standard farm practices and the attainable yield and NUE using optimum management practices. In farmer’s fields in China, the rice YG and NUE gap (expressed as the partial factor productivity of applied N, namely kg rice grain per kg fertilizer N applied, PFPN) averaged 1900 kg ha−1 and 18 kg kg−1, respectively. However, both were subject to large variability within and across different rice farming systems in response to key agronomic and environmental variables, with larger gaps in moderate- and low-yielding fields and in single rice systems. Management practices such as optimizing N and water management and increasing rice transplanting density simultaneously narrowed the YG by 38% and the NUE gap by 39% on average. Climatic- (YG-C) and inherent soil productivity-based YGs (YG-S), which represented fractions of YG derived from climate and soil variability, accounted for on average 16% and 38% of the total YG across low- and moderate-yielding fields in single rice systems, and by 14% and 27% in early and 11% and 20% in late rice farming systems, respectively. Growing-degree days (GDD) for early rice and daily minimum temperature (TMIN) for late rice were the best predictors of YG-C. For single rice in the Yangtze Delta, YG-C included multiple factors such as lower daily mean temperature and GDD, and higher daily maximum temperatures and precipitation during rice growing periods. Soil nutrient supplying capacity was partially responsible for YG-S in those under-performing fields. Significant and exploitable potential exists for increasing rice productivity with higher NUE, especially in moderate- and low-yielding fields. However, national and regional agricultural policies should place more emphasis on supporting good agronomy and soil management, thus moving towards a soil-climate smart management approach in rice farming systems.

Vegetation productivity responds to sub‐annual climate conditions across semiarid biomes

AbstractIn the southwest United States, the current prolonged warm drought is similar to the predicted future climate change scenarios for the region. This study aimed to determine patterns in vegetation response to the early 21st century drought across multiple biomes. We hypothesized that different biomes (forests, shrublands, and grasslands) would have different relative sensitivities to both climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) and legacy effects (previous‐year's productivity). We tested this hypothesis at eight Ameriflux sites in various Southwest biomes using NASA Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2001 to 2013. All sites experienced prolonged dry conditions during the study period. The impact of combined precipitation and temperature on Southwest ecosystems at both annual and sub‐annual timescales was tested using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). All biomes studied had critical sub‐annual climate periods during which precipitation and temperature influenced production. In forests, annual peak greenness (EVImax) was best predicted by 9‐month SPEI calculated in July (i.e., January–July). In shrublands and grasslands, EVImax was best predicted by SPEI in July through September, with little effect of the previous year's EVImax. Daily gross ecosystem production (GEP) derived from flux tower data yielded further insights into the complex interplay between precipitation and temperature. In forests, GEP was driven by cool‐season precipitation and constrained by warm‐season maximum temperature. GEP in both shrublands and grasslands was driven by summer precipitation and constrained by high daily summer maximum temperatures. In grasslands, there was a negative relationship between temperature and GEP in July, but no relationship in August and September. Consideration of sub‐annual climate conditions and the inclusion of the effect of temperature on the water balance allowed us to generalize the functional responses of vegetation to predicted future climate conditions. We conclude that across biomes, drought conditions during critical sub‐annual climate periods could have a strong negative impact on vegetation production in the southwestern United States.

N2 fixation, carbon accumulation, and plant water relations in soybean (Glycine max L. Merrill) varieties sampled from farmers’ fields in South Africa, measured using 15N and 13C natural abundance

In this study, the natural isotopes of N (15N) and C (13C) were used to evaluate symbiotic N nutrition, C accumulation, and plant water-use efficiency in soybean varieties sampled from 37 farmers’ fields across the soybean-producing region of South Africa. The data revealed significant differences in all the parameters measured. Shoot dry matter ranged from 17 to 104gplant−1, δ15N from −1.11 to +5.51‰, percent N derived from fixation from 21 to 96%, and N-fixed varied from 18 to 298kgNha−1. The high δ15N and low %Ndfa in some soybean genotypes were due to inhibition of N2 fixation by soil N uptake. Across the board, soybean variety PAN373 contributed the most symbiotic N (298, 242, and 217kgNha−1 in fields 3, 2 and 4, respectively, at Parys), followed by LS6164 (with 271 and 245kgNha−1 at Endcot field 1 and Devon field 2, respectively), and LS6150 (with 290kgNha−1 in field 1 at Parys). C concentration varied from 44 to 50% in soybean shoots, resulting in high shoot C ranging from 8 to 48gCplant−1. The δ13C values of soybean shoots ranged from −27.3‰ to −21.1‰ in the 37 fields studied, with PAN1453 from Gransvlei field 1 and PAN737 from Parys field 4 exhibiting much greater δ13C values (−21.1‰ and −23.1‰, respectively), and hence increased water-use efficiency. The positive correlation found between N-fixed and dry matter yield (r=0.70***), N-fixed and C content (r=0.62***), and N-fixed and C concentration (r=0.35*) indicates a functional relationship between N2 fixation and photosynthesis. Conventional tillage, as an agronomic tool, decreased water-use efficiency (or δ13C) in soybean plants possibly through alteration in soil structure and soil water retention. Due to a 2.6°C higher daily maximum temperature in the North West Province than KwaZulu–Natal and Mpumalanga, soybean plants sampled from that province showed better growth, higher dry matter yield, and enhanced symbiotic performance. This argument was supported by a significantly positive correlation found between average daily maximum temperature and both dry matter yield (r=0.39*), and N-fixed (r=0.46**). Furthermore, the plants sampled from North West also showed much greater water-use efficiency due to a 127 and 67mm less rainfall at that province than KwaZulu–Natal and Mpumalanga, respectively.

Diurnal warming in shallow coastal seas: Observations from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef regions

A good understanding of diurnal warming in the upper ocean is important for the validation of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) against in-situ buoy data and for merging satellite SSTs taken at different times of the same day. For shallow coastal regions, better understanding of diurnal heating could also help improve monitoring and prediction of ecosystem health, such as coral reef bleaching. Compared to its open ocean counterpart which has been studied extensively and modeled with good success, coastal diurnal warming has complicating localized characteristics, including coastline geometry, bathymetry, water types, tidal and wave mixing. Our goal is to characterize coastal diurnal warming using two extensive in-situ temperature and weather datasets from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Results showed clear daily warming patterns in most stations from both datasets. For the three Caribbean stations where solar radiation is the main cause of daily warming, the mean diurnal warming amplitudes were about 0.4K at depths of 4–7m and 0.6–0.7K at shallower depths of 1–2m; the largest warming value was 2.1K. For coral top temperatures of the GBR, 20% of days had warming amplitudes >1K, with the largest >4K. The bottom warming at shallower sites has higher daily maximum temperatures and lower daily minimum temperatures than deeper sites nearby. The averaged daily warming amplitudes were shown to be closely related to daily average wind speed and maximum insolation, as found in the open ocean. Diurnal heating also depends on local features including water depth, location on different sections of the reef (reef flat vs. reef slope), the relative distance from the barrier reef chain (coast vs. lagoon stations vs. inner barrier reef sites vs. outer rim sites); and the proximity to the tidal inlets. In addition, the influence of tides on daily temperature changes and its relative importance compared to solar radiation was quantified by calculating the ratio of power spectrum densities at the principal lunar semidiurnal M2 tide versus 24-hour cycle frequency representing mainly solar radiation forcing, i.e., (PSDM2/PSD24). Despite the fact that GBR stations are generally located at regions with large tidal changes, the tidal effects were modest: 80% of stations showed value of (PSDM2/PSD24) of less than 10%.

Trends in record‐breaking temperatures for the conterminous United States

In an unchanging climate, record‐breaking temperatures are expected to decrease in frequency over time, as established records become increasingly more difficult to surpass. This inherent trend in the number of record‐breaking events confounds the interpretation of actual trends in the presence of any underlying climate change. Here, a simple technique to remove the inherent trend is introduced so that any remaining trend can be examined separately for evidence of a climate change. As this technique does not use the standard definition of a broken record, our records* are differentiated by an asterisk. Results for the period 1961–2010 indicate that the number of record* low daily minimum temperatures has been significantly and steadily decreasing nearly everywhere across the United States while the number of record* high daily minimum temperatures has been predominantly increasing. Trends in record* low and record* high daily maximum temperatures are generally weaker and more spatially mixed in sign. These results are consistent with other studies examining changes expected in a warming climate.

The stochastic properties of high daily maximum temperatures applying crossing theory to modeling high-temperature event variables

The statistical properties of the excursions of maximum daily temperatures above various critical thresholds of interest are analyzed with a view to developing models of heat wave events using more than 100 years of record from meteorological stations in Lake City, DeFuniak Springs, Avon Park, and Fort Myers, Florida. These stochastic variables include; event density (number of such events per unit time), duration, timing, and peak values over the threshold. The theoretical basis for the modeling is found in Crossing Theory. The methodology has the flexibility to extrapolate to such levels while also having the advantage of being able to be applied to spatially differentiated data to determine risks associated with high-temperature events during any time period or at any location of interest.

The short-term influence of temperature on daily mortality in the temperate climate of Montreal, Canada

The purpose of this study was to determine whether short-term changes in ambient temperature were associated with daily mortality among persons who lived in Montreal, Canada, and who died in the urban area between 1984 and 2007. We made use of newly developed distributed lag non-linear Poisson models, constrained to a 30 day lag period, and we adjusted for temporal trends and nitrogen dioxide and ozone. We found a strong non-linear association with high daily maximum temperatures showing an apparent threshold at about 27 °C; this association persisted until about lag 5 days. For example, we found across all lag periods that daily non-accidental mortality increased by 28.4% (95% confidence interval: 13.8–44.9%) when temperatures increased from 22.5 to 31.8 °C (75–99th percentiles). This association was essentially invariant to different smoothers for time. Cold temperatures were not found to be associated with daily mortality over 30 days, although there was some evidence of a modest increased risk from 2 to 5 days. The adverse association with colder temperatures was sensitive to the smoother for time. For cardio-respiratory mortality we found increased risks for higher temperatures of a similar magnitude to that of non-accidental mortality but no effects at cold temperatures.

Differential Survivorship of Invasive Mosquito Species in South Florida Cemeteries: Do Site-Specific Microclimates Explain Patterns of Coexistence and Exclusion?

Within 2 yr of the arrival of the invasive container mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse), the previously dominant invasive mosquito Aedes aegypti (L.) disappeared from many Florida cemeteries. At some cemeteries, however, Ae. aegypti populations seem stable despite Ae. albopictus invasion. We sought to understand this variation in the outcome (exclusion, coexistence) of this invasion, given that previous experiments show that Ae. albopictus is the superior larval competitor. We tested experimentally the hypothesis that climate-dependent egg survivorship differs between exclusion and coexistence cemeteries and that differences in invasion outcome are associated with microclimate. Viability of eggs oviposited in the laboratory and suspended in vases at six cemeteries was significantly greater for Ae. aegypti than for Ae. albopictus, and greater in 2001 than in 2006. Cemeteries differed significantly in egg survivorship of Ae. albopictus, but not of Ae. aegypti, which is consistent with the hypothesis that Ae. albopictus suffers site-specific, climate-driven egg mortality that mitigates the competitive superiority of larval Ae. albopictus. Principal component (PC) analysis of microclimate records from vases during the experiments yielded three PCs accounting for >96% of the variance in both years of experiments. Multivariate analysis of variance of the three PCs revealed significant microclimate differences among the six cemeteries and between exclusion versus coexistence cemeteries. Stepwise logistic regression of egg survivorship versus microclimate PCs yielded significant fits for both species, and twice as much variance explained for Ae. albopictus as for Ae. aegypti in both years. Higher mortalities in 2006 were associated with high average daily maximum temperatures in vases, with lethal thresholds for both species at ≈40°C. From 1990 to 2007, vase occupancy by Ae. albopictus increased and that by Ae. aegypti decreased, with increasing seasonal precipitation at one well-sampled cemetery. Results support the hypothesis that locally variable climate-driven mortality of Ae. albopictus eggs contributes to patterns of exclusion of, or coexistence with, Ae. aegypti.

Endocrinology of year-round reproduction in a highly seasonal habitat: environmental variability in testosterone and glucocorticoids in baboon males.

In conditions characterized by energetic constraints, such as in periods of low food availability, some trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance may be necessary; even year-round breeders may then be forced to exhibit some reproductive seasonality. Prior research has largely focused on female reproduction and physiology, and few studies have evaluated the impact of environmental factors on males. Here we assessed the effects of season and ambient temperatures on fecal glucocorticoid (fGC) and testosterone (fT) levels in male baboons in Amboseli, Kenya. The Amboseli basin is a highly challenging, semiarid tropical habitat that is characterized by strongly seasonal patterns of rainfall and by high ambient temperatures. We previously reported that female baboons were impacted by these challenging environmental conditions. We ask here whether male baboons in the same environment and groups as females exhibit similar physiological effects. We found that after accounting for male age and individual variability, males exhibited higher fGC levels and lower fT levels during the dry season than during the wet season. Furthermore, fT but not fGC levels were lower in months of high average daily maximum temperatures, suggesting a direct impact of heat on testes. Our results demonstrate that male baboons, like females, experience ecological stress that alters their reproductive physiology. The impact of the environment on male reproduction deserves more attention both in its own right and because alteration in male physiology may contribute to the reduction in female fertility observed inchallenging environments.

Connection of fertilization conditions of sour cherry and meteorological parameters

Our analyses showed that the degree of free fertilization is mostly influenced by maximum temperature and sunshine duration.We found that free fertilization ratio increases with higher daily maximum temperatures; similar results characterise sunshine duration as well, namely we observed higher free fertilization ratio at higher sunshine duration values. Total amount of precipitation during the period between blossoming and maturity and the difference between the average daytime and night temperatures have an important role in the tendency of maturity time. Photosynthesis and respiration are essentially significant in the development of biological systems. These two processes are mostly regulated by the daytime and night temperatures. Therefore, it is not surprising that if the difference between daytime and night temperatures is large, it means intensive photosynthesis and a low degree of respiratory loss. Under these conditions intensive development and ripening can take place; however, in case of a low temperature difference intensive respiration slows down the process of development. Duration of ripening is also significantly influenced by the amount of precipitation of the period between blossoming and maturity.Abundant precipitation slows down the process of ripening, while dry weather accelerates it. Self-fertilization takes place in a space isolated from the environment. In spite of that, we found that effectiveness of self-pollination significantly depends on the meteorological conditions. Degree of self-fertilization is influenced directly by temperature and indirectly by other climatic parameters. We found a significant connection between the values of maximum and minimum temperatures during blossoming and the ratio of self-fertilization. Increase of maximum temperature reduces the effectiveness of self-pollination.A 1 °C increase of maximum temperature reduces self-fertilization ratio by 0,6%. In the case of minimum temperature we can state that the morning minimum temperature of 7,5–8,5°C is the most favourable. If minimum temperatures are under 4 °C or above 12 °C, self-fertilization ratio reduces to the quarter of the value characteristic at 8 °C. We believe that the effectiveness of self-fertilization can be improved considerably by the rational placement of isolator bags within the crown area, avoiding their placement to the external, western crown surface.