Higher Conviction Rates Research Articles

Machine learning predictive modeling for condemnation risk assessment in antibiotic-free raised broilers

The condemnation of broiler carcasses in the poultry industry is a major challenge and leads to significant financial losses and food waste. This study addresses the critical issue of condemnation risk assessment in the discarding of antibiotic-free raised broilers using machine learning (ML) predictive modeling. In this study, ML approaches, specifically least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), classification tree (CT), and random forests (RF), were used to evaluate and compare their effectiveness in predicting high condemnation rates. The dataset of 23,959 truckloads from 2021 to 2022 contained 14 independent variables covering the rearing, catching, transportation, and slaughtering phases. Condemnation rates between 0.26% and 25.99% were used as the dependent variable for the analysis, with the threshold for a high conviction rate set at 3.0%. As high condemnation rates were in the minority (8.05%), sampling methods such as random over sampling (ROS), random under sampling (RUS), both sampling (BOTH), and random over sampling example (ROSE) were used to account for imbalanced datasets. The results showed that RF with RUS performed better than the other models for balanced datasets. In this study, mean body weight, weight per crate, mortality and culling rates, and lairage time were identified as the 4 most important variables for predicting high condemnation rates. This study provides valuable insights into ML applications for predicting condemnation rates in antibiotic-free raised broilers and provides a framework to improve decision-making processes in establishing farm management practices to minimize economic losses in the poultry industry. The proposed methods are adaptable for different broiler producers, which increases their applicability in the industry.

준거기반내용분석(CBCA)의 변별력

Criteria-Based Content Analysis (CBCA) is part of Statement Validity Analysis (SVA), a process that checks for the presence of 19 criteria that are known to be frequently found in the statements of truth-tellers. This study examined how well CBCA scores predict trial outcomes (guilty or not guilty) and which conventions are associated with higher conviction rates in order to validate the analysis of adult sexual assault victim statements. The results showed that the CBCA total score was not a reliable predictor of guilt or innocence. Next, we examined the truth discriminatory power of CBCA subcategories: logical structure and superfluous details were significantly higher in the guilty group and self-deprecation was significantly higher in the innocent group. The logical structure of the statement was found to be of significant value in assessing credibility, while the other cues were found to be of varying value depending on the characteristics and psychological state of the individual interviewee and the nature of the case, and thus need to be judged in a case-specific manner. These findings suggest that CBCA is a useful tool for analyzing adult sexual assault victim statements, but it is only valuable when used as part of an SVA and cannot be used as a stand-alone authenticity tool.

Rate Expectations: Jurors and the Self-Reinforcing Effect of Conviction Rates

We examined whether jurors who know that a prosecutor has a high conviction rate are more inclined to convict a defendant than jurors who know that the prosecutor has a low conviction rate. Using simulated criminal cases, we conducted two experimental studies with jury-eligible participants. Study 1 (N = 200) tested whether information about prior conviction rates (high or low) affected jurors’ estimations of the probability of guilt in the context of a robbery. Study 2 (N = 205) used another criminal trial context (murder) and another dependent variable (dichotomous guilty/not guilty verdicts). Study 2 also incorporated jury instructions on the reasonable doubt standard and included a control condition in which no information regarding the conviction rate was provided. In both studies, jurors in the high conviction rate treatment were significantly more likely to convict the accused than jurors in the low conviction rate treatment. When jurors are aware of a prosecutor's prior conviction rates, a self-reinforcing cycle may arise in which conviction rates determine conviction rates.

A Retrospective Analytical Study of Forensic Evidence in Rape and Murder Cases and its Implications on Judicial Outcomes in India

In rape and murder cases, forensic science precisely establishes the link between the accused and either the victim or the crime scene, or both, which aids police investigation and the trial process by providing scientific evidence to corroborate or contradict the accused’s guilt. This study focuses on the importance of forensic evidence in deciding rape cases in India. This study aimed to analyze the correlation between forensic evidence and judicial outcomes in determining the conviction rate. This is a retrospective analytical study of rape and murder cases of the Supreme Court of India (SCI) Judgments from 1992 to 2021 using the library and digital library resources. The data obtained were subjected to Pearson’s correlation test to assess the relationship between forensic evidence and judicial outcomes. The results were considered statistically significant at P < 0.05. In 20 (5.22%) sensational, heinous rape and murder cases, 13 (65%) cases had proper handling of the forensic samples, while 7 (35%) cases had improper handling of the forensic samples or inconsistent forensic reports were given. Based on the forensic reports and other factors, the SCI affirmed the sentence in 11 (55%) cases, commuted imprisonment in 7 (35%) cases, and acquitted 2 (15%) cases. Further, the statistical analysis shows that forensic evidence and judicial outcomes have a moderately positive correlation with each other (0.2 < r < 0.5, P < 0.05). In rape and murder cases, SCI judgments have a high conviction rate. However, the SCI commuted the sentence based on inconsistent forensic reports and acquitted based on mishandled forensic reports.

Should we throw the book at ‘em? Charge combinations and conviction rates among alcohol-influenced drivers involved in motorcycle crashes

Introduction: Motorcycle fatality rates are increasing, and impaired driving is a major contributing factor. Impaired driving laws are a main component of state efforts to reduce drunk driving, but motorcycle crash charge and conviction outcomes have yet to be studied. The purpose of this study was to evaluate driver charge and conviction outcomes following alcohol-related motorcycle crashes. Methods: Data for this study were drawn from Iowa crash, charge, and conviction data from 2011 to 2018. The study sample included 480 alcohol-influenced drivers (428 motorcyclists and 52 other vehicle drivers) involved in motorcycle crashes. Driver crash-related charges were categorized by type: Alcohol, Moving Violations, and Administrative/Miscellaneous. Factors associated with convictions were determined and estimated with multivariable logistic regression models. The main factor of interest was charge combination. Results: Over three-quarters (78.5%) of the 480 alcohol-influenced drivers in crashes received any charge type and 68.1% received an alcohol-related charge. Among drivers with any charge, 88.6% were convicted, and among drivers with alcohol charges, 87.2% were convicted on an alcohol charge. After adjusting for BAC, drivers with a combination of Alcohol, Administrative, and Moving Violation charges had more than three times the odds of conviction of any charge compared to drivers with alcohol only charges (OR = 3.21, 95% CI = 1.00–10.26). However, charge combinations had little impact on alcohol-related convictions. Conclusions: Convictions were more likely when the impaired driver was charged with multiple types of offenses than with a single offense. An increased variety of charges was not associated with greater rates of conviction on alcohol-specific charges, which had high conviction rates overall. Practical Applications: Law enforcement officers should be informed that lesser infractions impact driver conviction outcomes in alcohol-related crashes and procedures for issuing charges should be evaluated to assure equitable enforcement and to hold drivers accountable for unsafe driving behaviors.

Court decisions in criminal proceedings for dental malpractice in Taiwan

Malpractice claims place heavy economic and emotional burdens on both dentists and patients. Recently, medical malpractice lawsuits are decreasing in prevalence but increasing in severity. The percentage of dental malpractice payments is also growing among the health profession. The present study aimed to explore criminal convictions in dental malpractice litigation and to analyze the factors affecting the judgment in dental disputes in Taiwan. The keywords "dentist," "professional negligence," "medical malpractice," and "professional liability" were used to search Taiwan's Law and Regulations Retrieving System for criminal dental malpractice cases in all district courts from January 1, 2000 to June 30, 2021. The eligible judgments were summarized and analyzed. Overall, 425 cases were identified, with 28 dental disputes included in the final analysis. The dentists lost in 10 cases (35.7%). The average claim time was 36.75±16.34 months. Taipei and Taichung dealt with more lawsuit cases (n=8). Local clinics were the most common institution of the defendants (75%) and had the highest number of convictions (n=9). Implant dentistry was the most common specialty involved. Expert testimony of the Medical Review Committee (MRC) had a high K coefficient of agreement with court judgments regarding professional negligence (p<0.001). The overall criminal conviction rate was 35.7%. Implant therapy and local clinics had the highest rate of lawsuits and a considerably higher conviction rate. All guilty dentists were fined or given probation. The court judgments were highly consistent with the expert testimony of the MRC.

Alternative stories and the decision to prosecute: an applied approach against confirmation bias in criminal prosecution

ABSTRACT In many legal systems, preliminary proceedings and the prosecutor’s charging decision predict the outcome of the trial, as reflected in high conviction rates. This charging decision is mostly based on the final police report, which is primarily aimed to substantiate the given suspicion and may lead to a preponderance of incriminating evidence. We investigated if a written statement by the defense (an alternative story) can balance out this information disparity and can alter the charging decision. Building on classical debiasing methods, the Story Model and narrative persuasion, we hypothesized that an alternative story reduces the likelihood of being charged, because the police report becomes less unique. Participants of three experiments (criminal-law students, N = 684) received either only the police report, or the police report plus an alternative story (vs. a statement merely claiming innocence) and were asked to make charging decisions. The presence of prior conviction evidence (PCE) was varied. Results show that 1) an alternative story reduces (and PCE increases) the likelihood of being charged, 2) a statement merely claiming innocence is less but still effective, and 3) PCE effects were small and inconsistent. Underlying mechanisms, implications for criminal procedural law, and applicability to adversarial systems are discussed.

What Hinders Victims from Reporting Sexual Violence: A Qualitative Study with Police Officers, Prosecutors, and Judges in Hungary

While rape historically remains underreported all over the globe, and criminal justice factors contribute to this problem, we investigate unique circumstances that might influence reporting inclinations by Hungarian victims of sexual violence. Among other possible factors, victim-blaming, institutional desensitization, and a lack of trust in the criminal justice system and in the community are discussed. The in-depth interviews (n = 22) with law enforcement and criminal justice professionals conducted in 2018 in Hungary reveal roots of underreporting in the complexities of the criminal justice system: there is a failure to prioritize victims’ needs—mental care services, physical and privacy protection—and a focus instead on solely providing legal justice. The further deficits that can be found among professionals’ attitudes and behaviors in the courtroom are products of the following: a lack of standardized protocols in addressing the needs of victims; a dearth of technical and evidence-based knowledge and training; a lack of supervision and trauma-informed services to practitioners; high caseloads; a focus on the goal of high conviction rates; not providing open communication toward victims; and a shortage of standardized protocols in dealing with victims.

Policy and management actions that resulted in curbing rhinoceros poaching

Abstract Nepal almost eliminated poaching of the greater one‐horned rhinoceros Rhinoceros unicornis over the past decade, although poaching of other rhinoceros species remains a major problem in other Asian countries, as well as in Africa. It is important to understand the processes leading to declines in poaching in Nepal that may provide insight into possible anti‐poaching interventions in other parts of world. We argue that coordinated actions that led to (a) strengthened institutional mechanisms, (b) improved community participation and (c) enhanced interagency coordination all focused on dismantling illegal trade networks contributed to curbing poaching in Nepal. The Government of Nepal (GoN) created a new institutional mechanism both at central and district levels aimed at formulating policies and collaborating with enforcement agencies. Security agencies (Nepal Police and Army) were given responsibilities in and around rhinoceros habitat, and local citizens, mostly youths, were involved in surveillance and reporting of poaching activities. Targeted arrests and prosecutions were carried out that resulted in much higher conviction rates than previously. Synthesis and applications. Nepal's achievement in curbing rhinoceros poaching is a result of the collective and coordinated action of multiple stakeholders. Interagency coordination brought together the strength of each stakeholder, making it possible to fill critical gaps in anti‐poaching campaigns. There is a need for continued engagement of local communities, interagency cooperation and better training of law enforcement staff to sustain past achievements.

When jurors’ moral judgments result in jury nullification: moral outrage at the law as a mediator of euthanasia attitudes on verdicts

In a mock-trial study, jurors read evidence about a doctor who had killed a terminally ill patient at the patient’s request. We tested whether instructing jurors about jury nullification (ie jurors’ power to return a not-guilty verdict even when legal guilt is beyond doubt, often because the law would result in unjust convictions) would exacerbate the effect of pre-trial euthanasia attitudes on their verdicts – compared to standard, pattern jury instructions. We also hypothesized that anti-euthanasia pre-trial attitudes would result in moral outrage at the defendant and higher conviction rates, but pro-euthanasia attitudes would prompt feelings of moral outrage at the law and lower conviction rates. Moderated mediation analyses revealed that nullification instructions bolstered the effect of attitudes on verdicts by encouraging jurors to rely on their feelings of moral outrage toward the defendant. Jurors’ moral outrage toward the law mediated the effect of attitudes on verdicts regardless of nullification instructions.

Juror gender and confession evidence: an exploratory study of effects on empathy and trial outcomes for juvenile defendants

We explored how relations among juror gender, confession evidence, and empathy impacted verdicts for a juvenile defendant accused of a serious crime. Jury-eligible women and men (N = 132) participated in a mock trial involving a girl defendant who had either maintained her innocence, confessed voluntarily, or confessed under coercion. Participants reviewed case materials, received juror instructions, and reported their verdict and empathy for the girl defendant. A manipulation check ensured participants attended to details surrounding the confession and participants were grouped by whether they perceived the confession as voluntary or coerced. A logistic regression analysis examined main and interactive effects of juror gender and perceived-confession condition on jurors’ verdicts, and the PROCESS regression macro-examined whether effects revealed therein could be explained by empathy toward the juvenile. Juror gender did not have a significant indirect effect on verdicts in either the no-confession, B = .05, 95% CI [− .005, .85], or perceived-coerced-confession conditions, B = − .12, 95% CI [− .36, .02]. However, women’s lower levels of empathy translated into a higher conviction rate among women versus men for the juvenile who was perceived as confessing voluntarily, B = − .28, 95% CI [− .75, − .02]. Women and men differ in ways that may sometimes produce outcomes that are less favorable to juvenile defendants. Implications for jury practice and process are considered.

The brevity and severity of ‘Golden Age’ piracy trials

A sampling of piracy and piracy-related trials involving mainly English (later British) and colonial courts between 1670 and 1731 shows that from opening statements through deliberations they were rapid affairs, few extending beyond a single calendar date, and that on average they appear to have convicted about six of every 10 defendants who pleaded Not Guilty. That conviction figure is impacted by high-volume trials in 1700 and 1722 that acquitted relatively large numbers of defendants; eliminating these two trials from the mix yields a significantly higher conviction rate (about seven in 10) for those who pleaded Not Guilty. This article presents its sampling data, noting appropriate cautions, in the context of the era’s legal proceedings and practices.

Impact of substance use and other risk factor exposures on conviction rates by people with a psychotic illness and other mental disorders

To examine the impact of substance use and other risk factors on conviction rates in people with a psychotic illness (PI) and other mental disorders (OMD) compared to those with no mental illness (NMI). This research is part of a longitudinal record-linked whole-population study of 467,945 children born in Western Australia (WA) between 1980 and 2001. This cohort was identified through linkages between the WA psychiatric case register, WA corrective services data and other state-wide registers. We assessed 184,147 individuals born during 1983-1991 to explore the impact of exposure to a variety of risk factors on conviction rates. People with PI and OMD had higher conviction rates than those with NMI, with unadjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) of 3.98 (95% CI 3.67-4.32) for PI and 3.18 (95% CI 3.03-3.34) for OMD. Adjusting for substance use reduced the rates by 60% in PI and 30% in OMD: IRRs 1.59 (95% CI 1.45-1.74) and 2.24 (2.12-2.37), respectively. Minimal change was seen when adjusting for other potential risk factors (including socio-demographics, victimisation and parental offending), with adjusted IRRs 1.58 (95% CI 1.43-1.74) for PI and 1.90 (95% CI 1.80-2.02) for OMD. Our analysis shows people with a mental illness have higher rates of conviction than those with NMI. Substance use has a major impact on this rate. Results suggest the need for a greater investment in programs addressing the issue of comorbid substance use with a view to reduce the rate of convictions in this population.

Traumatic Brain Injury in Prisoners: Relation to Risky Decision-Making, Aggression and Criminal Behavior

The objective of this cross-sectional study was to investigate if Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is related to decision-making deficits as well as to heightened levels of (reactive) aggression and criminal behavior in a group of Dutch male prisoners. Characteristics of aggression were assessed using three self-report questionnaires as well as systematic staff observations, complemented with data from criminal records. A semi-structured interview was conducted to rate lifetime prevalence of TBI and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was completed to assess risky decision-making. Out of the total of 133 participants, 74 (55.6%) reported having sustained one or more incidents with potential TBI. Statistical comparisons between offenders with and without TBI indicated that the offenders with TBI reported significantly higher levels of (reactive) aggression on two out of three questionnaires than offenders without TBI (p-values ranging from 0.003 to 0.008), but no significant differences were found on staff observations of aggression and on the IGT. The higher conviction rates in offenders with TBI compared to the non-TBI group showed a trend. The confirmed relationship between TBI and higher aggressive tendencies is especially relevant for forensic populations due to the high prevalence rates of TBI in offenders. How this relates to specific cognitive processes remains unclear. The lack of a statistical difference between offenders with and without TBI on the IGT is in contrast with literature in non-offender samples, but seems to be in line with other studies in forensic populations.

The Failure of Feminism? Rape Law Reform in the Republic of Ireland, 1980–2017

Based on Carol Smart's observation that rape law reform as lobbied for by the feminist movement during the 1970s and 1980s failed to achieve any meaningful change, this article seeks to examine the nature and implications of rape law reform in the Republic of Ireland from the 1980s to the present day. During the 1980s the conceptualization of rape changed from a proprietorial crime to a violation of individual bodily integrity due to feminist lobbying efforts and the emergence of a victim-centered approach in the criminal justice system. Though this changing conceptualisation has led to significant attitudinal change, particularly surrounding the issues of acquaintance and marital rape, procedural change has failed to secure higher conviction rates. In particular, this article demonstrates that the legal reforms achieved in the 1980s potentially resulted in a 2% decrease in rape conviction rates by 2007. When compared to England/Wales, conviction rates as distinctive from prosecution rates in Ireland remain chronically low. This indicates that any legal reforms must take account of the institutional bias ingrained the Irish criminal justice system against female rape complainants, which has continuing relevance for Irish legislation pertaining to sexual violence such as the Criminal Law (Sexual Offences) Act, 2017. Overall this article suggests that rape is an exceptional crime and needs to be reassessed as such.

Malleus Maleficarum: Scrutinizing Sorcery in Cameroon

AbstractDrawing on ethnographic research, this article reflects critically on the current involvement of the Cameroonian state in witchcraft accusations. Unlike other African states where witchcraft is connected to religion and culture and as such is far detached from economics and politics, post-colonial Cameroon associates witchcraft and other occult practices with being a major factor in its slow economic development. The state resorted to criminal law in its attempts to eradicate the practice. Its penal code subjects persons accused of witchcraft to imprisonment for up to ten years. This provision has been subject to great criticism, as its application has led to a high conviction rate of indigenous Cameroonians. The aim of this article is not to determine the appropriateness of this approach, but to raise questions and shed light on the various inconsistencies with criminalizing a practice that arguably constitutes an underlying basis of indigenous Cameroonian cultural heritage.

The Size and Costs of Bribes in Malaysia: An Analysis Based on Convicted Bribe Givers

A bribe-giving function was tested for Malaysia using data on 449 convicted bribe givers. Both the size of bribes and the probability of paying a large bribe were found to be positively and significantly associated with the size of fines and length of imprisonment avoided through bribery. Both the size of bribes and the probability of paying a large bribe increased with fines for bribery, however, but decreased with length of imprisonment. Our findings suggest that a reduction in human involvement in apprehending bribe givers, stricter enforcement, higher conviction rates, and more severe punishments could discourage bribes.

Sexual Offenses Against Elderly People: Forensic Evaluation and Judicial Outcome

Forensic evaluation reports and judicial outcomes regarding older victims of suspected sexual offenses were retrospectively reviewed. During this period, a total of 14 cases were registered, corresponding to 0.3% of nonfatal crimes against elderly and 0.6% of the total of sexual crimes reported. All the victims were female. The majority lived alone and did not have limitations in communication, orientation, ambulation, or autonomy. The offenders were all male (17 to 81 years old); most were known to the victims and had history of previous disruptive behaviors. The majority of the sexual offenses occurred in the victims’ homes, and the offenders tended to use physical violence. Forensic evaluation was crucial for the identification of physical and biological evidence, and forensic conclusions were positively correlated with the judicial outcome of each case. High prosecution and conviction rates were also observed.

ICTUR in Action: Trial observer

ICTUR IN ACTION ❐ TRIAL OBSERVATION, THAILAND Charges brought against Hall Following publication of the report the Natural Fruit Company claimed that it had suffered financial and reputational harm as a result of what it claimed were misleading statements contained in the report and given out in the course of a press interview Hall gave to the Al Jazeera media channel . The company brought a civil defamation action against Hall seeking compensation for the losses it claimed to have sustained as a result of the publication. The civil claim was followed by multiple criminal defamation charges and then further civil claims. Altogether six different legal actions were initiated against Hall. The researcher faces the prospect of up to seven years imprisonment and the possible imposition of fines running into millions of euros. Concerned by the use of defamation law against a labour rights researcher, and in particular by the use of criminal defamation laws, ICTUR contacted Finnwatch and made arrangements to send a trial observer. ICTUR has been concerned for some years by the use of similar legal actions in Thailand and around the region in cases where labour and human rights violations have been reported. The 95 percent conviction rate for criminal defamation in Thailand gave further cause for concern. During the trial By order of Judge Rotsawan Thapsuwan the Court recognized and granted right of attendance to ICTUR with full permission for Mark Plunkett to observe. The trial opened in a courtly fashion with a sense that proceedings would be very open, tolerant, and fair to all with no intimidation . The proceedings were well attended, with representation by the British, Finnish and Australian Embassies, NGOs, and members of the international and local press. Mr Pong-Sul Ahn, Senior Specialist in Worker Activities of the ILO, was also in attendance. However after a few days the judge ordered members of the public gallery, including Mr Plunkett, not to take notes. The trial was a criminal defamation case based on alleged defamatory material published in the context of an interview with Andy Hall carried out by the Al Jazeera news agency, which was subsequently posted to YouTube. The fact of the publication was not in issue, but there was detailed cross examination by the defence counsel about whether it was the defendant who published the words complained or the Aljazeera journalist, and whether the words were about the complainant company specifically, or more generally about Thai industry. The defence cross-examination sought to prove that the extra-territorial reach of the Thai laws Labour rights researcher facing criminal charges Thai criminal defamation laws used to inhibit free speech and media coverage have an extraordinarily high conviction rate of around 95 percent INTERNATIONAL union rights Page 16 Volume 21 Issue 3 2014 ANDY HALL (above) is a labour rights researcher facing civil and criminal charges in Thailand DANIEL BLACKBURN reports on a trial observation arranged by ICTUR The ITF contributed to Mr Plunkett’s travel costs I n September British labour rights researcher Andy Hall was on trial in Thailand facing charges of criminal defamation and the possibility of a prison sentence and large fine in relation to his work to expose human rights violations . Thai criminal defamation laws limit free speech in the country and have an extraordinarily high conviction rate of around 95 percent. The International Centre for Trade Union Rights (ICTUR) commissioned barrister Mark Plunkett, a lawyer of 32 years standing who has practised throughout Australia and the Asia-Pacific region, to observe all proceedings in the trial of Special Prosecution Office v. Andrew Jonathan Hall, held at the Phrakanong Provincial Court, Bangkok, Thailand from 2 September to 10 September 2014. This update does not contain Mr Plunkett’s analysis of the trial, his findings, or recommendations , which are reserved for publication on the day the Court gives its verdict, 29 October 2014. ■ The report will be then available at: www.ictur.org/Doc/Plunkett.doc Background Hall is a British academic and expert in migration based at Mahidol University in Thailand. He has more than ten years experience in researching labour and migration issues in and around Thailand, and was hired as a researcher to produce a report...

How do defendants choose their trial court? Evidence for a heuristic processing account

AbstractIn jurisdictions with two or more tiers of criminal courts, some defendants can choose the type of trial court to be tried in. This may involve a trade-off between the probability of acquittal/conviction and the estimated severity of sentence if convicted. For instance, in England and Wales, the lower courts have a higher conviction rate but limited sentencing powers, whereas the higher courts have a higher acquittal rate but greater sentencing powers. We examined 255 offenders’ choice of trial court type using a hypothetical scenario where innocence and guilt was manipulated. Participants’ choices were better predicted by a lexicographic than utility maximization model. A greater proportion of “guilty” participants chose the lower court compared to their “innocent” counterparts, and estimated sentence length was more important to the former than latter group. The present findings provide further support for heuristic decision-making in the criminal justice domain, and have implications for legal policy-making.