Belief Hierarchies Research Articles

Strategic ambiguity in global games

In games with incomplete and ambiguous information, rational behavior depends not only on fundamental ambiguity (ambiguity about states) but also on strategic ambiguity (ambiguity about others' actions), which further induces hierarchies of ambiguous beliefs. We study the impacts of strategic ambiguity in global games and demonstrate the distinct effects of ambiguous-quality and low-quality information. Ambiguous-quality information makes more players choose an action yielding a constant payoff, whereas (unambiguous) low-quality information makes more players choose an ex-ante best response to the uniform belief over the opponents' actions. If the ex-ante best-response action yields a constant payoff, sufficiently ambiguous-quality information induces a unique equilibrium, whereas sufficiently low-quality information generates multiple equilibria. In applications to financial crises, we show that news of more ambiguous quality triggers a debt rollover crisis, whereas news of less ambiguous quality triggers a currency crisis.

Complete conditional type structures

Hierarchies of conditional beliefs (Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 1999) play a central role for the epistemic analysis of solution concepts in sequential games. They are modelled by type structures, which allow the analyst to represent the players' hierarchies without specifying an infinite sequence of conditional beliefs. Here, we study type structures that satisfy a “richness” property, called completeness. Friedenberg (2010) shows that, under specific conditions, a complete type structure with ordinary beliefs represents all hierarchies. This paper shows that Friedenberg's result can be extended to type structures with conditional beliefs. As an ancillary result of independent interest, we provide a construction of the “canonical” space of hierarchies of conditional beliefs which generalizes the one in Battigalli and Siniscalchi (1999).

Math and German motivation transitions in early adolescence

BackgroundSome students are more motivated that others in one or multiple academic domains, and more motivated in one domain than another. These inner hierarchies of motivational beliefs are important because they can influence students’ achievement and study or career choices. However, little is known about the heterogeneity in inner hierarchies of motivational beliefs during early secondary school, when motivation typically declines. AimsThe aims of this study were to (1) identify profiles of self-concept and intrinsic value in mathematics and German during the first two years of secondary school, (2) explore stability and change in these profiles, and (3) explore how profile membership relates to student competence and gender, and perceived teacher behaviour. SampleParticipants were 721 secondary school students from Germany. MethodsStudents completed measures of self-concept, intrinsic value, and competence in grades 5 and 6, and measures of perceived teacher behaviour in grade 5. Data were analysed using latent transition analysis. ResultsFive profiles characterised by inter- and intraindividual differences in self-concept and intrinsic value were identified. Membership in these profiles was relatively stable. Inner hierarchies of self-concept and value were related to competence, with students demonstrating higher competence in domains they were more motivated in. Gender and perceived teacher behaviour were related to profile membership, but not profile transitions. ConclusionsWhen supporting the motivational development of students during the first two years of secondary school, teachers may need to adopt a holistic approach that recognises the heterogeneity in students’ inner hierarchies of motivational beliefs.

On Hurwicz Preferences in Psychological Games

The literature on strategic ambiguity in classical games provides generalized notions of equilibrium in which each player best responds to ambiguous or imprecise beliefs about his opponents’ strategic choices. In a recent paper, strategic ambiguity has been extended to psychological games, by taking into account ambiguous hierarchies of beliefs and max–min preferences. Given that this kind of preference seems too restrictive as a general method to evaluate decisions, in this paper we extend the analysis by taking into account α-max–min preferences in which decisions are evaluated by a convex combination of the worst-case (with weight α) and the best-case (with weight 1−α) scenarios. We define the α-max–min psychological Nash equilibrium; an illustrative example shows that the set of equilibria is affected by the parameter α and the larger the ambiguity, the greater the effect. We also provide a result of stability of the equilibria with respect to perturbations that involve the attitudes toward ambiguity, the structure of ambiguity, and the payoff functions: converging sequences of equilibria of perturbed games converge to equilibria of the unperturbed game as the perturbation vanishes. Surprisingly, a final example shows that the existence of equilibria is not guaranteed for every value of α.

Value history jako instrument przedłużenia autonomicznego charakteru decyzji terapeutycznej poza moment utraty świadomości

The concept underlying the institution of pro futuro declarations is the will to extend the possibility to determine one’s own fate beyond the moment of unconsciousness. Subsequent generations of such declarations have been the result of a search for solutions to adequately reflect the individual’s aspirations while at the same time securing their effective "enforcement". Currently, particularly within Anglo-Saxon legal culture, there is a growing interest in the institution of value history as an instrument providing justification for first- and second-generation anticipatory declarations by referring to the patient's hierarchy of values, worldview and beliefs. It is recognised, however, that such declarations make it possible not only to extend the patient's ability to determine his or her own future beyond the moment of unconsciousness, but also to attribute to such a disposition the qualities of an autonomous decision, i.e. one made by a competent person, freely exercised, informed and intentional. However, the possibility of exploiting the full potential of value history declarations is conditioned by the appropriate design of the form (in terms of both content and design) and an adequate information procedure that should precede the drafting of the declaration. Remarkably, the purely theoretical reflection that has been present since the 1980s regarding the desirable features of third-generation pro futuro declaration forms is now increasinglytaking the shape of considerations supported by consultations and research involving the participation of patients. Nevertheless, the fact that the institution of a living will or a power of attorney for health care has not yet been regulated at a statutory level in the domestic legalframework is a serious obstacle to the use of the possibilities offered by value history declarations within the Polish health care system.

Religious identity, trust, reciprocity, and prosociality: Theory and evidence

We use the trust and the dictator games to explore the effects of religious identity on trust, trustworthiness, prosociality, and conditional reciprocity within a beliefs-based model. We provide a novel, rigorous, theoretical model to derive the relevant predictions, which are then tested in lab-in-the-field experiments in the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. We find strong evidence of the effects of religious identity on the belief hierarchies, and the chosen actions, of Hindu and Muslim subjects. Priming for a religious identity has little effect on Hindu subjects but it enhances religious polarization in beliefs and actions among Muslim subjects. There is taste-based discrimination but no statistical discrimination. All our underlying assumptions on beliefs, and their dependence on priming and identity are confirmed by the data, identifying a precise beliefs-based mechanism for the effects of religious identity. More religious subjects expect greater prosociality/reciprocity and often are more prosocial/reciprocal.

Hierarchy of value orientation and beliefs in climate change influencing the farmers' extractive or non-extractive behavior on the farm.

Understanding drivers of farmers' extractive and non-extractive behavior regarding natural resources has become increasingly important in the face of anthropogenic climatic change, which is a major challenge in today's world. Non-extractive behavior on the farm refers to the use of natural resources to the extent that it is possible to renew the context and not harm nature and non-renewable resources. Extractive behavior on the farm is associated with the extensive extraction of natural resources without provision for their renewal such as digging deeper wells instead of using water optimally, using chemical fertilizers with more repetition and higher dosage instead of the bio-fertilizers, and as a later result more climate change. To successfully respond human-made climate change using a cognitive hierarchy model, the influence of values on belief and behavior was assessed by a survey method among farmers of Zanjan province, Iran. A representative sample of 265 farmers was surveyed using proportional randomized multi-stage sampling. The results revealed that value orientation significantly elucidated 21% of the variability in non-extractive behavior and 26% of extractive behavior variance in a direct way and through beliefs in climate change. The recommendations have been presented to increase farmer's efforts to reduce their ecological footprint in nature.

Structure‐preserving transformations of epistemic models

AbstractThe prevailing approaches to modeling interactive uncertainty with epistemic models in economics are state‐based and type‐based. We explicitly formulate two general procedures that transform state models into type models and vice versa. Both transformation procedures preserve the belief hierarchies as well as the common prior assumption. By means of counterexamples it is shown that our procedures are not inverse to each other. However, if attention is restricted to maximally reduced epistemic models, then isomorphisms can be constructed and an inverse relationship emerges.

Classical and belief-based gift exchange models: Theory and evidence

We derive and test the predictions of three competing models of gift exchange: Classical (CGE); Augmented (AGE) based on unexpected wage surprises; and Belief-based (BGE) that uses belief hierarchies to formally model reciprocity and guilt-aversion. Following Akerlof (1982), we also introduce signals of the typical wage, θw, and effort level, θe, in similar firms. We examine the worker's optimal effort in response to exogenous variation in the wage, w, the signals θw, θe, and a signal of the firm's expectations of effort from the worker, s. All three models predict gift exchange, however, the predictions of the AGE and the CGE models with respect to θw, θe, and s, are rejected. The BGE model successfully explains the data in all these respects. Gift exchange is underpinned by guilt-aversion. We also provide novel empirical evidence of first order stochastic dominance of first and second order beliefs.

Psychological Nash equilibria under ambiguity

Psychological games aim to represent situations in which players may have belief-dependent motivations. In this setting, utility functions are directly dependent on the entire hierarchy of beliefs of each player. On the other hand, the literature on strategic ambiguity in classical games highlights that players may have ambiguous (or imprecise) beliefs about opponents’ strategy choices. In this paper, we look at the issue of ambiguity in the framework of simultaneous psychological games by taking into account ambiguous hierarchies of beliefs and study a natural generalization of the psychological Nash equilibrium concept to this framework. We give an existence result for this new concept of equilibrium and provide examples that show that even an infinitesimal amount of ambiguity may alter significantly the equilibria of the game or can work as an equilibrium selection device. Finally, we look at the problem of stability of psychological equilibria with respect to ambiguous trembles on the entire hierarchy of correct beliefs and we provide a limit result that gives conditions so that sequences of psychological equilibria under ambiguous perturbation converge to psychological equilibria of the unperturbed game.

Changing the Script: Intergenerational Communication about Sexual and Reproductive Health in Niamey, Niger

ABSTRACT Most strategies to reduce adolescent pregnancies have been designed to educate adolescents directly about family planning (FP), while adolescents often cite peers and parents as their primary sources of sexual health information. Yet parents’ lack of knowledge about sexual and reproductive health (SRH), low self-efficacy to initiate conversations, and adverse social norms act as barriers to open intergenerational communication. To better understand the normative environment influencing communication between parents and youth about FP/SRH in francophone West Africa, the USAID supported Breakthrough RESEARCH project conducted a multi-stage qualitative study in Niger. During Stage 1, the research team developed a screening tool (based on a literature review) to categorize research participants into those who practiced open intergenerational communication about FP/SRH, and those who did not. Stage 2 consisted of 40 in-depth interviews with young people (ages 15–24) and adults (≥25 years old), stratified by whether they practiced open intergenerational communication. Results showed restrictive social norms related to youth SRH and access to information and services. However, particularly among participants classified as open-communicators, there is a hierarchy of norms and normative beliefs, with abstinence as the most virtuous decision for youth, but approving communication about and access to SRH services in order to minimize harm. Participants rely on values such as the protection of youth, protection of family honor and promotion of well-being as means to act in counter-normative ways and communicate about FP/SRH. Implications for the field include demystifying and destigmatizing SRH topics, increasing adults’ communication skills, and changing the “script” to a more life-affirming view of SRH.

Common belief in rationality in games with unawareness

This paper investigates static games with unawareness, where players may be unaware of some of the choices that can be made. That is, different players may have different views on the game. We propose an epistemic model that encodes players’ belief hierarchies on choices and views, and use it to formulate the basic reasoning concept of common belief in rationality . We do so for two scenarios: one in which we only limit the possible views that may enter the players’ belief hierarchies, and one in which we fix the players’ belief hierarchies on views. For both scenarios we design a recursive elimination procedure that yields for every possible view the choices that can rationally be made under common belief in rationality.

Improving the governance of information technology: Insights from the history of Internet governance

Governance of the Internet is a matter of global importance and concern. The multi-stakeholder (MS) and multilateral (ML) forms have been presented as two competing and plausible models of Internet governance. Drawing on actor–network theory (ANT) and building on an interpretive case study of rich archival data, this paper examines how the focal actor’s (i.e. the U.S. government’s) beliefs influence the choice of Internet governance form. It further explores the strategies of the focal actor to translate the interests of the ML network’s supporters, with a view to enrolling them in the MS governance network. The analysis shows how the focal actor has established the MS governance form through the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) as an Obligatory Passage Point to keep the Internet successfully operational. The analysis also illuminates the combination of structural and collaborative strategies employed to allay the growing dissatisfaction with the MS governance form. The paper suggests that whilst the protocols and technical standards of the Internet are increasingly relegated to the background, the social and political network that Internet artefacts draw together in a meta-form has grown in prominence. It also argues that there may be a hierarchy of beliefs, which influence how actors enact their translation strategies. Finally, the paper discusses parallels between the MS/ML forms of Internet governance and IT governance in organizational contexts.

Healing Through Policy: A Guide for Public Health Agencies.

Healing Through Policy: A Guide for Public Health Agencies.

Value‐based distance between information structures

We define the distance between two information structures as the largest possible difference in value across all zero‐sum games. We provide a tractable characterization of distance and use it to discuss the relation between the value of information in games versus single‐agent problems, the value of additional information, informational substitutes, complements, or joint information. The convergence to a countable information structure under value‐based distance is equivalent to the weak convergence of belief hierarchies, implying, among other things, that for zero‐sum games, approximate knowledge is equivalent to common knowledge. At the same time, the space of information structures under the value‐based distance is large: there exists a sequence of information structures where players acquire increasingly more information, and ε > 0 such that any two elements of the sequence have distance of at least ε. This result answers by the negative the second (and last unsolved) of the three problems posed by Mertens in his paper “Repeated Games” (1986).

Motivational profiles across domains and academic choices within Eccles et al.'s situated expectancy-value theoretical framework.

This longitudinal person-centered study aimed to identify profiles of subjective task values and ability self-concepts of adolescents in the domain of mathematics, English, biology, and physics in Grades 10 and 12. We were interested in gendered changes of profile membership, and in relations between profile membership and educational and occupational outcomes in adulthood. Data were drawn from the Michigan Study of Adolescent and Adult Life Transitions. We focused on students who participated in the data collection in Grades 10 and 12 (N = 911; 56.1% female; Mage = 16.49, SD = .63; 91.2% European American, 4.6% African American, and 2.1% other ethnic groups such as Hispanic, Asian, Native American). Data on subsequent college majors were assessed 2, 6, and 10 years after finishing high school and data on occupational outcomes was assessed up to 22 years after high school. Using Latent Profile Analyses, our findings revealed five profiles in grade 10 and four profiles in grade 12, which were meaningfully related to student gender. Latent Transition Analyses showed that motivational beliefs became more hierarchical over time. Gendered changes in profile membership occurred, with boys experiencing a process of specialization into mathematics domains. We were also able to show that gender-specific intraindividual hierarchies of motivational beliefs were related to gender-specific specialization processes in adolescence and to subsequent gendered choices throughout the life course. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Rationalizability, Observability, and Common Knowledge

Abstract We study the strategic impact of players’ higher-order uncertainty over the observability of actions in general two-player games. More specifically, we consider the space of all belief hierarchies generated by the uncertainty over whether the game will be played as a static game or with perfect information. Over this space, we characterize the correspondence of a solution concept which captures the behavioural implications of Rationality and Common Belief in Rationality (RCBR), where “rationality” is understood as sequential whenever the game is dynamic. We show that such a correspondence is generically single-valued, and that its structure supports a robust refinement of rationalizability, which often has very sharp implications. For instance, (1) in a class of games which includes both zero-sum games with a pure equilibrium and coordination games with a unique efficient equilibrium, RCBR generically ensures efficient equilibrium outcomes (eductive coordination); (2) in a class of games which also includes other well-known families of coordination games, RCBR generically selects components of the Stackelberg profiles (Stackelberg selection); (3) if it is commonly known that player $2$’s action is not observable (e.g. because $1$ is commonly known to move earlier, etc.), in a class of games which includes all of the above RCBR generically selects the equilibrium of the static game most favourable to player $1$ (pervasiveness of first-mover advantage).

Muslim and Non-Muslim voices on Qur'an in the Light of the Clinton Bennett’s Work

Qur’an being the last divine book, has undergone a constant change of response from Muslim and non-Muslim scholars in the last fourteen centuries. Everybody has tried to understand Qur’an according to his own experiences and perceptions. These scholars have adopted various attitudes to understand and interpret the Qur’an and Qur’anic knowledges in every face of history. Clinton Bennett is one of the scholars who has compiled and analyzed the various approaches relating Qur’an. Moreover his coined hierarchy seems to be comparatively proper because he has divided the relative scholars into different categories according to his own classification. Muslim attitudes include conservative (Traditionalists/Revivalists), Moderate (Liberal) and the Progressive ones, while non-Muslim attitudes consist of faith sensitive and critical ones. In addition to the elaborations of various scholastic attitudes Clinton Bennett has at times cited his own version therein. In the study underhand we will try to discuss the hierarchy of the Quranic beliefs as visualized by Muslim and non-Muslim scholars. We will discuss the class and position of the scholars given by Clinton Bennett to them in his hierarchy and would narrate the contribution of the scholars hereafter. We will also examine and study the relative scholars by our own critical analyzation. This research is descriptive and analytical in nature and presents a detailed analysis of the work, it is based upon.

Cultural Beliefs and Stakeholder Affiliation Influence Attitudes Towards Responsible Research and Innovation Among United States Stakeholders Involved in Biotechnology and Gene Editing

Biotech developers are concerned about the future of gene editing having experienced the contentious history of first-generation GM foods. They have also expressed desires to do better with public engagement in gene-editing innovation. The framework of Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) may provide a way forward to act on their desires for greater public legitimacy. However, in the United States, -there has also been reluctance to incorporate RRI into biotechnology innovation systems like gene editing in food and agriculture. In this article, we investigate individual- and group-level factors, including demographic, sociographic, and cultural factors, that influence attitudes towards RRI among biotechnology United States stakeholders. Using the Advocacy Coalition Framework’s (ACF) hierarchy of beliefs as a theoretical guide, biotechnology stakeholders (n = 110) were surveyed about their cultural (deep-core) beliefs and then about their attitudes towards principles (policy-core beliefs) and practices (secondary beliefs) of RRI applied to biotechnology innovation. Through statistical analysis of the results, we found significant relationships between stronger egalitarian cultural-beliefs and positive attitudes towards both the principles and practices of RRI. We also found that participants with higher levels of experience held more positive attitudes towards principles of RRI. In contrast, we found a significant inverse relationship between professional affiliation with industry or trade organizations and attitudes towards RRI practices. With these results, we present a model of factors that influence RRI attitudes for future testing. In closing, we interpret the results in the context of ACF to examine the potential for building cross-sector coalitions for practicing RRI within United States gene-editing innovation systems.

How to Interpret Belief Hierarchies in Bayesian Game Theory: A Dilemma for the Epistemic Program

This article proposes two interpretations of the concept of belief hierarchies in Bayesian game theory: the behaviorist interpretation and the mentalist interpretation. On the former, belief hierarchies are derived from the players’ preferences over acts. On the latter, they are causal mechanisms that are responsible for the players’ choices and preferences over acts. The claim is that the epistemic program in game theory is potentially confronted with a dilemma regarding which interpretation should be adopted. If the behaviorist interpretation of belief hierarchies is retained, then Bayesian game theory cannot account for the players’ reasoning that leads to the generation of specific belief hierarchies and thus to the implementation of a specific strategy profile in a game. If the mentalist interpretation is retained, then belief hierarchies appear to be unnecessarily and unrealistically complex objects and that as a result they fail to provide reasonable epistemic foundations for various solution concepts. In other words, neither interpretation seems to allow the epistemic program to fulfill all its aims. I suggest however that the mentalist interpretation can be arranged to escape this dilemma.