HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations Research Articles

Combined assimilation of NOAA surface and MIPAS satellite observations to constrain the global budget of carbonyl sulfide

Abstract. Carbonyl sulfide (COS), a trace gas in our atmosphere that leads to the formation of aerosols in the stratosphere, is largely taken up by terrestrial ecosystems. Quantifying the biosphere uptake of COS could provide a useful quantity to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP). Some COS sources and sinks still contain large uncertainties, and several top-down estimates of the COS budget point to an underestimation of sources, especially in the tropics. We extended the inverse model TM5-4DVAR to assimilate Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) satellite data, in addition to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) surface data as used in a previous study. To resolve possible discrepancies among the two observational data sets, a bias correction scheme is necessary and implemented. A set of inversions is presented that explores the influence of the different measurement streams and the settings of the prior fluxes. To evaluate the performance of the inverse system, the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft observations and NOAA airborne profiles are used. All inversions reduce the COS biosphere uptake from a prior value of 1053 GgS a−1 to much smaller values, depending on the inversion settings. These large adjustments of the biosphere uptake often turn parts of Amazonia into a COS source. Only inversions that exclusively use MIPAS observations, or strongly reduce the prior errors on the biosphere flux, maintain the Amazon as a COS sink. Inclusion of MIPAS data in the inversion leads to a better separation of land and ocean fluxes. Over the Amazon, these inversions reduce the biosphere uptake from roughly 300 to 100 GgS a−1, indicating a strongly overestimated prior uptake in this region. Although a recent study also reported reduced COS uptake over the Amazon, we emphasise that a careful construction of prior fluxes and their associated errors remains important. For instance, an inversion that gives large freedom to adjust the anthropogenic and ocean fluxes of CS2, an important COS precursor, also closes the budget satisfactorily with much smaller adjustments to the biosphere. We achieved better characterisation of biosphere prior and uncertainty, better characterisation of combined ocean and land fluxes, and better constraint of both by combining surface and satellite observations. We recommend more COS observations to characterise biosphere and ocean fluxes, especially over the data-poor tropics.

Intercomparison of Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide (TransCom‐COS): 2. Evaluation of Optimized Fluxes Using Ground‐Based and Aircraft Observations

AbstractWe present a comparison of atmospheric transport models that simulate carbonyl sulfide (COS). This is part II of the ongoing Atmospheric Transport Model Inter‐comparison Project (TransCom–COS). Differently from part I, we focus on seven model intercomparison by transporting two recent COS inversions of NOAA surface data within TM5‐4DVAR and LMDz models. The main goals of TransCom‐COS part II are (a) to compare the COS simulations using the two sets of optimized fluxes with simulations that use a control scenario (part I) and (b) to evaluate the simulated tropospheric COS abundance with aircraft‐based observations from various sources. The output of the seven transport models are grouped in terms of their vertical mixing strength: strong and weak mixing. The results indicate that all transport models capture the meridional distribution of COS at the surface well. Model simulations generally match the aircraft campaigns HIAPER Pole‐To‐Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). Comparisons to HIPPO and ATom demonstrate a gap between observed and modeled COS over the Pacific Ocean at 0–40°N, indicating a potential missing source in the free troposphere. The effects of seasonal continental COS uptake by the biosphere, observed on HIPPO and ATom over oceans, is well reproduced by the simulations. We found that the strength of the vertical mixing within the column as represented in the various atmospheric transport models explains much of the model to model differences. We also found that weak‐mixing models transporting the optimized flux derived from the strong‐mixing TM5 model show a too strong seasonal cycle at high latitudes.

Global seasonal distribution of CH2Br2 and CHBr3 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Abstract. Bromine released from the decomposition of short-lived brominated source gases contributes as a sink of ozone in the lower stratosphere. The two major contributors are CH2Br2 and CHBr3. In this study, we investigate the global seasonal distribution of these two substances, based on four High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) missions, the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) mission, and the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. Observations of CH2Br2 in the free and upper troposphere indicate a pronounced seasonality in both hemispheres, with slightly larger mixing ratios in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Compared to CH2Br2, CHBr3 in these regions shows larger variability and less clear seasonality, presenting larger mixing ratios in winter and autumn in NH midlatitudes to high latitudes. The lowermost stratosphere of SH and NH shows a very similar distribution of CH2Br2 in hemispheric spring with differences well below 0.1 ppt, while the differences in hemispheric autumn are much larger with substantially smaller values in the SH than in the NH. This suggests that transport processes may be different in both hemispheric autumn seasons, which implies that the influx of tropospheric air (“flushing”) into the NH lowermost stratosphere is more efficient than in the SH. The observations of CHBr3 support the suggestion, with a steeper vertical gradient in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in SH autumn than in NH autumn. However, the SH database is insufficient to quantify this difference. We further compare the observations to model estimates of TOMCAT (Toulouse Off-line Model of Chemistry And Transport) and CAM-Chem (Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry, version 4), both using the same emission inventory of Ordóñez et al. (2012). The pronounced tropospheric seasonality of CH2Br2 in the SH is not reproduced by the models, presumably due to erroneous seasonal emissions or atmospheric photochemical decomposition efficiencies. In contrast, model simulations of CHBr3 show a pronounced seasonality in both hemispheres, which is not confirmed by observations. The distributions of both species in the lowermost stratosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres are overall well captured by the models with the exception of southern hemispheric autumn, where both models present a bias that maximizes in the lowest 40 K above the tropopause, with considerably lower mixing ratios in the observations. Thus, both models reproduce equivalent flushing in both hemispheres, which is not confirmed by the limited available observations. Our study emphasizes the need for more extensive observations in the SH to fully understand the impact of CH2Br2 and CHBr3 on lowermost-stratospheric ozone loss and to help constrain emissions.

Hydrocarbon Tracers Suggest Methane Emissions from Fossil Sources Occur Predominately Before Gas Processing and That Petroleum Plays Are a Significant Source.

We use global airborne observations of propane (C3H8) and ethane (C2H6) from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) and HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO), as well as U.S.-based aircraft and tower observations by NOAA and from the NCAR FRAPPE campaign as tracers for emissions from oil and gas operations. To simulate global mole fraction fields for these gases, we update the default emissions’ configuration of C3H8 used by the global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem v13.0.0, using a scaled C2H6 spatial proxy. With the updated emissions, simulations of both C3H8 and C2H6 using GEOS-Chem are in reasonable agreement with ATom and HIPPO observations, though the updated emission fields underestimate C3H8 accumulation in the arctic wintertime, pointing to additional sources of this gas in the high latitudes (e.g., Europe). Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we estimate global emissions of C2H6 and C3H8 from fossil fuel production in 2016–2018 to be 13.3 ± 0.7 (95% CI) and 14.7 ± 0.8 (95% CI) Tg/year, respectively. We calculate bottom-up hydrocarbon emission ratios using basin composition measurements weighted by gas production and find their magnitude is higher than expected and is similar to ratios informed by our revised alkane emissions. This suggests that emissions are dominated by pre-processing activities in oil-producing basins.

Nitrous Oxide Profile Retrievals from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and Validation

This paper presents an algorithm for the retrieval of nitrous oxide profiles from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) on the Earth Observing System (EOS)/Aqua using a nonlinear optimal estimation method. First, an improved Optimal Sensitivity Profile (OSP) algorithm for channel selection is proposed based on the weighting functions and the transmissions of the target gas and interfering gases, with 13 channels selected for inversion in this algorithm. Next, the data of the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) are used to verify the retrieval results, including the atmospheric nitrous oxide profile and the column concentration. The results show that using AIRS satellite data, the atmospheric nitrous oxide profile between 300–900 hPa can be well retrieved with an accuracy of ~0.1%, which agrees with the corresponding Jacobian peak interval of selected channels. Analysis of the AIRS retrievals demonstrates that the AIRS measurements provide useful information to capture the spatial and temporal variations in nitrous oxide between 300–900 hPa.

Evaluation and Global-Scale Observation of Nitrous Oxide from IASI on Metop-A

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas difficult to estimate by satellite because of its weak spectral signature in the infra-red band and its low variability in the troposphere. Nevertheless, this study presents the evaluation of new tropospheric N2O observations from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) on Metop-A using the Toulouse N2O Retrieval Version 2.0 tool. This tool is based on the Radiative Transfer for Tiros Operational Vertical sounder (RTTOV) model version 12.3 coupled to the Levenberg-Marquardt optimal estimation method enabling the simultaneous retrieval of methane, water vapour, temperature profiles together with surface temperature and emissivity within the 1240–1350 cm−1 window. In this study, we focused on the upper troposphere (300 hPa) where the sensitivity of IASI is significant. The IASI N2O data has been evaluated using aircraft N2O observations from the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns in 2009, 2010, and 2011 and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN) in 2011. In addition, we evaluated the IASI N2O using ground-based N2O measurements from 9 stations belonging to the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We found a total random error of ∼2 ppbv (0.6%) for one single retrieval at 300 hPa. Under favorable conditions, this error is also found in the vertical level pressure range 300–500 hPa. It decreases rapidly to ∼0.4 ppbv (0.1%) when we average on a 1° × 1° box. In addition, independent observations allows the estimation of bias with the IASI TN2OR v2.0 N2O. The bias between IASI and aircraft N2O data at 300 hPa is ∼1.0 ppbv (∼0.3%). We found an estimated random error of ∼2.3 ppbv (∼0.75%). This study also shows relatively high correlations between IASI data and aircraft in situ profiles but more varying correlations over the year 2011 depending on the location between IASI and NDACC remote sensing data. Finally, we present daily, monthly, and seasonal IASI N2O horizontal distributions in the upper troposphere as well as cross sections for different seasons that exhibit maxima in the Tropical band especially over Africa and South America.

Continental-scale contributions to the global CFC-11 emission increase between 2012 and 2017

Abstract. The detection of increasing global CFC-11 emissions after 2012 alerted society to a possible violation of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (MP). This alert resulted in parties to the MP taking urgent actions. As a result, atmospheric measurements made in 2019 suggest a sharp decline in global CFC-11 emissions. Despite the success in the detection and mitigation of part of this problem, regions fully responsible for the recent global emission changes in CFC-11 have not yet been identified. Roughly two thirds (60 ± 40 %) of the emission increase between 2008–2012 and 2014–2017 and two thirds (60 ± 30 %) of the decline between 2014–2017 and 2019 were explained by regional emission changes in eastern mainland China. Here, we used atmospheric CFC-11 measurements made from two global aircraft surveys – the HIAPER (High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) in November 2009–September 2011 and the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) in August 2016–May 2018, in combination with the global CFC-11 measurements made by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during these two periods – to derive global and regional emission changes in CFC-11. Our results suggest Asia accounted for the largest fractions of global CFC-11 emissions in both periods: 43 (37–52) % during November 2009–September 2011 and 57 (49–62) % during August 2016–May 2018. Asia was also primarily responsible for the emission increase between these two periods, accounting for 86 (59–115) % of the global CFC-11 emission rise between the two periods. Besides eastern mainland China, temperate western Asia and tropical Asia also contributed significantly to global CFC-11 emissions during both periods and likely to the global CFC-11 emission increase. The atmospheric observations further provide strong constraints on CFC-11 emissions from North America and Europe, suggesting that each of them accounted for 10 %–15 % of global CFC-11 emissions during the HIPPO period and smaller fractions in the ATom period. For South America, Africa, and Australia, the derived regional emissions had larger dependence on the prior assumptions of emissions and emission changes due to a lower sensitivity of the observations considered here to emissions from these regions. However, significant increases in CFC-11 emissions from southern hemispheric lands were not likely due to the observed increase of north-to-south interhemispheric gradients in atmospheric CFC-11 mole fractions from 2012–2017.

Inverse modelling of carbonyl sulfide: implementation, evaluation and implications for the global budget

Abstract. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has the potential to be used as a climate diagnostic due to its close coupling to the biospheric uptake of CO2 and its role in the formation of stratospheric aerosol. The current understanding of the COS budget, however, lacks COS sources, which have previously been allocated to the tropical ocean. This paper presents a first attempt at global inverse modelling of COS within the 4-dimensional variational data-assimilation system of the TM5 chemistry transport model (TM5-4DVAR) and a comparison of the results with various COS observations. We focus on the global COS budget, including COS production from its precursors carbon disulfide (CS2) and dimethyl sulfide (DMS). To this end, we implemented COS uptake by soil and vegetation from an updated biosphere model (Simple Biosphere Model – SiB4). In the calculation of these fluxes, a fixed atmospheric mole fraction of 500 pmol mol−1 was assumed. We also used new inventories for anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions. The model framework is capable of closing the COS budget by optimizing for missing emissions using NOAA observations in the period 2000–2012. The addition of 432 Gg a−1 (as S equivalents) of COS is required to obtain a good fit with NOAA observations. This missing source shows few year-to-year variations but considerable seasonal variations. We found that the missing sources are likely located in the tropical regions, and an overestimated biospheric sink in the tropics cannot be ruled out due to missing observations in the tropical continental boundary layer. Moreover, high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere require extra COS uptake or reduced emissions. HIPPO (HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations) aircraft observations, NOAA airborne profiles from an ongoing monitoring programme and several satellite data sources are used to evaluate the optimized model results. This evaluation indicates that COS mole fractions in the free troposphere remain underestimated after optimization. Assimilation of HIPPO observations slightly improves this model bias, which implies that additional observations are urgently required to constrain sources and sinks of COS. We finally find that the biosphere flux dependency on the surface COS mole fraction (which was not accounted for in this study) may substantially lower the fluxes of the SiB4 biosphere model over strong-uptake regions. Using COS mole fractions from our inversion, the prior biosphere flux reduces from 1053 to 851 Gg a−1, which is closer to 738 Gg a−1 as was found by Berry et al. (2013). In planned further studies we will implement this biosphere dependency and additionally assimilate satellite data with the aim of better separating the role of the oceans and the biosphere in the global COS budget.

Evaluation of single-footprint AIRS CH<sub>4</sub> profile retrieval uncertainties using aircraft profile measurements

Abstract. We evaluate the uncertainties of methane optimal estimation retrievals from single-footprint thermal infrared observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). These retrievals are primarily sensitive to atmospheric methane in the mid-troposphere through the lower stratosphere (∼2 to ∼17 km). We compare them to in situ observations made from aircraft during the HIAPER Pole to Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) campaigns, and from the NOAA GML aircraft network, between the surface and 5–13 km, across a range of years, latitudes between 60∘ S to 80∘ N, and over land and ocean. After a global, pressure-dependent bias correction, we find that the land and ocean have similar biases and that the reported observation error (combined measurement and interference errors) of ∼27 ppb is consistent with the SD between aircraft and individual AIRS observations. A single observation has measurement (noise related) uncertainty of ∼17 ppb, a ∼20 ppb uncertainty from radiative interferences (e.g., from water or temperature), and ∼30 ppb due to “smoothing error”, which is partially removed when making comparisons to in situ measurements or models in a way that accounts for this regularization. We estimate a 10 ppb validation uncertainty because the aircraft typically did not measure methane at altitudes where the AIRS measurements have some sensitivity, e.g., the stratosphere, and there is uncertainty in the truth that we validate against. Daily averaging only partly reduces the difference between aircraft and satellite observation, likely because of correlated errors introduced into the retrieval from temperature and water vapor. For example, averaging nine observations only reduces the aircraft–model difference to ∼17 ppb vs. the expected ∼10 ppb. Seasonal averages can reduce this ∼17 ppb uncertainty further to ∼10 ppb, as determined through comparison with NOAA aircraft, likely because uncertainties related to radiative effects of temperature and water vapor are reduced when averaged over a season.

A mass-weighted isentropic coordinate for mapping chemical tracers and computing atmospheric inventories

Abstract. We introduce a transformed isentropic coordinate Mθe, defined as the dry air mass under a given equivalent potential temperature surface (θe) within a hemisphere. Like θe, the coordinate Mθe follows the synoptic distortions of the atmosphere but, unlike θe, has a nearly fixed relationship with latitude and altitude over the seasonal cycle. Calculation of Mθe is straightforward from meteorological fields. Using observations from the recent HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) airborne campaigns, we map the CO2 seasonal cycle as a function of pressure and Mθe, where Mθe is thereby effectively used as an alternative to latitude. We show that the CO2 seasonal cycles are more constant as a function of pressure using Mθe as the horizontal coordinate compared to latitude. Furthermore, short-term variability in CO2 relative to the mean seasonal cycle is also smaller when the data are organized by Mθe and pressure than when organized by latitude and pressure. We also present a method using Mθe to compute mass-weighted averages of CO2 on a hemispheric scale. Using this method with the same airborne data and applying corrections for limited coverage, we resolve the average CO2 seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere (mass-weighted tropospheric climatological average for 2009–2018), yielding an amplitude of 7.8 ± 0.14 ppm and a downward zero-crossing on Julian day 173 ± 6.1 (i.e., late June). Mθe may be similarly useful for mapping the distribution and computing inventories of any long-lived chemical tracer.

Spatio-Temporal Validation of AIRS CO2 Observations Using GAW, HIPPO and TCCON

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a significant atmospheric greenhouse gas and its concentrations can be observed by in situ surface stations, aircraft flights and satellite sensors. This paper investigated the ability of the CO2 satellite observations to monitor, analyze and predict the horizontal and vertical distribution of atmospheric CO2 concentration at global scales. CO2 observations retrieved by an Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) were inter-compared with the Global Atmosphere Watch Program (GAW) and HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPOs), with reference to the measurements obtained using high-resolution ground-based Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTS) in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) from near-surface level to the mid-to-high troposphere. After vertically integrating the AIRS-retrieved values with the column averaging kernels of TCCON measurements, the AIRS observations are spatio-temporally compared with HIPPO-integrated profiles in the mid-to-high troposphere. Five selected GAW stations are used for comparisons with TCCON sites near the surface of the Earth. The results of AIRS, TCCON (5–6 km), GAW and TCCON (1 km) CO2 measurements from 2007 to 2013 are compared, analyzed and discussed at their respective altitudes. The outcomes indicate that the difference of about 3.0 ppmv between AIRS and GAW or other highly accurate in situ surface measurements is mainly due to the different vertical altitudes, rather than the errors in the AIRS. The study reported here also explores the potential of AIRS satellite observations for analyzing the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of CO2 concentration at global scales.

Modeling the global radiative effect of brown carbon: a potentially larger heating source in the tropical free troposphere than black carbon

Abstract. Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and the scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The direct radiative effect (DRE) of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning regions and that the resulting radiative heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper physical and chemical treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory on the basis of the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4), developed a module to simulate the light absorption of BrC in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and investigated the photobleaching effect and convective transport of BrC on the basis of Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC3) measurements. The model simulations of BC were also evaluated using HIAPER (High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) measurements. We found that globally BrC is a significant absorber, the DRE of which is 0.10 W m−2, more than 25 % of BC DRE (+0.39 W m−2). Most significantly, model results indicated that BrC atmospheric heating in the tropical mid and upper troposphere is larger than that of BC. The source of tropical BrC is mainly from wildfires, which are more prevalent in the tropical regions than higher latitudes and release much more BrC relative to BC than industrial sources. While BC atmospheric heating is skewed towards the northern mid-latitude lower atmosphere, BrC heating is more centered in the tropical free troposphere. A possible mechanism for the enhanced convective transport of BrC is that hydrophobic high molecular weight BrC becomes a larger fraction of the BrC and less easily activated in a cloud as the aerosol ages. The contribution of BrC heating to the Hadley circulation and latitudinal expansion of the tropics is likely comparable to BC heating.

Radiance-based retrieval bias mitigation for the MOPITT instrument: the version 8 product

Abstract. The MOPITT (Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere) satellite instrument has been making nearly continuous observations of atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) since 2000. Satellite observations of CO are routinely used to analyze emissions from fossil fuels and biomass burning, as well as the atmospheric transport of those emissions. Recent enhancements to the MOPITT retrieval algorithm have resulted in the release of the version 8 (V8) product. V8 products benefit from updated spectroscopic data for water vapor and nitrogen used to develop the operational radiative transfer model and exploit a new method for minimizing retrieval biases through parameterized radiance bias correction. In situ datasets used for algorithm development and validation include the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and HIPPO (HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations) datasets used for earlier MOPITT validation work in addition to measurements from the ACRIDICON-CHUVA (Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation, and Radiation Interactions and Dynamics of Convective Cloud Systems – Cloud processes of the main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribution to cloud resolving modeling and to the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)), KORUS-AQ (The Korea-United States Air Quality Study), and ATom (The Atmospheric Tomography Mission) programs. Validation results illustrate clear improvements with respect to long-term bias drift and geographically variable retrieval bias. For example, whereas bias drift for the V7 thermal-infrared (TIR)-only product exceeded 0.5 % yr−1 for levels in the upper troposphere (e.g., at 300 hPa), bias drift for the V8 TIR-only product is found to be less than 0.1 % yr−1 at all levels. Also, whereas upper-tropospheric (300 hPa) retrieval bias in the V7 TIR-only product exceeded 10 % in the tropics, corresponding V8 biases are less than 5 % (in terms of absolute value) at all latitudes and do not exhibit a clear latitudinal dependence.

Global atmospheric CO2 inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate.

We have compared a suite of recent global CO2 atmospheric inversion results to independent airborne observations and to each other, to assess their dependence on differences in northern extratropical (NET) vertical transport and to identify some of the drivers of model spread. We evaluate posterior CO2 concentration profiles against observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaigns over the mid-Pacific in 2009–2011. Although the models differ in inverse approaches, assimilated observations, prior fluxes, and transport models, their broad latitudinal separation of land fluxes has converged significantly since the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Inversion Intercomparison (TransCom 3) and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) projects, with model spread reduced by 80% since TransCom 3 and 70% since RECCAP. Most modeled CO2 fields agree reasonably well with the HIPPO observations, specifically for the annual mean vertical gradients in the Northern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere vertical mixing no longer appears to be a dominant driver of northern versus tropical (T) annual flux differences. Our newer suite of models still gives northern extratropical land uptake that is modest relative to previous estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013) and near-neutral tropical land uptake for 2009–2011. Given estimates of emissions from deforestation, this implies a continued uptake in intact tropical forests that is strong relative to historical estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013). The results from these models for other time periods (2004–2014, 2001–2004, 1992–1996) and reevaluation of the TransCom 3 Level 2 and RECCAP results confirm that tropical land carbon fluxes including deforestation have been near neutral for several decades. However, models still have large disagreements on ocean–land partitioning. The fossil fuel (FF) and the atmospheric growth rate terms have been thought to be the best-known terms in the global carbon budget, but we show that they currently limit our ability to assess regional-scale terrestrial fluxes and ocean–land partitioning from the model ensemble.

Methane profiles from GOSAT thermal infrared spectra

Abstract. This paper discusses the retrieval of atmospheric methane profiles from the thermal infrared band of the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) between 1210 and 1310 cm−1, using the RemoTeC analysis software. Approximately one degree of information on the vertical methane distribution is inferred from the measurements, with the main sensitivity at about 9 km altitude but little sensitivity to methane in the lower troposphere. For verification, we compare the GOSAT-TIR methane profile retrieval results with profiles from model fields provided by the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project, scaled to the total column measurements of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) at ground-based measurement sites. Without any radiometric corrections of GOSAT observations, differences between both data sets can be as large as 10 %. To mitigate these differences, we developed a correction scheme using a principal component analysis of spectral fit residuals and airborne observations of methane during the HIAPER pole-to-pole observations (HIPPO) campaign II and III. When the correction scheme is applied, the bias in the methane profile can be reduced to less than 2 % over the whole altitude range with respect to MACC model methane fields. Furthermore, we show that, with this correction, the retrievals result in smooth methane fields over land and ocean crossings and no differences can be discerned between daytime and nighttime measurements. Finally, a cloud filter is developed for the nighttime and ocean measurements. This filter is rooted in the GOSAT-TIR (thermal infrared) measurements and its performance, in terms of biases, is consistent with the cloud filter based on the GOSAT-SWIR (shortwave infrared) measurements. The TIR filter shows a higher acceptance rate of observations than the SWIR filter, at the cost of a higher uncertainty in the retrieved methane profiles.

Top-down constraints on global N<sub>2</sub>O emissions at optimal resolution: application of a new dimension reduction technique

Abstract. We present top-down constraints on global monthly N2O emissions for 2011 from a multi-inversion approach and an ensemble of surface observations. The inversions employ the GEOS-Chem adjoint and an array of aggregation strategies to test how well current observations can constrain the spatial distribution of global N2O emissions. The strategies include (1) a standard 4D-Var inversion at native model resolution (4° × 5°), (2) an inversion for six continental and three ocean regions, and (3) a fast 4D-Var inversion based on a novel dimension reduction technique employing randomized singular value decomposition (SVD). The optimized global flux ranges from 15.9 Tg N yr−1 (SVD-based inversion) to 17.5–17.7 Tg N yr−1 (continental-scale, standard 4D-Var inversions), with the former better capturing the extratropical N2O background measured during the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) airborne campaigns. We find that the tropics provide a greater contribution to the global N2O flux than is predicted by the prior bottom-up inventories, likely due to underestimated agricultural and oceanic emissions. We infer an overestimate of natural soil emissions in the extratropics and find that predicted emissions are seasonally biased in northern midlatitudes. Here, optimized fluxes exhibit a springtime peak consistent with the timing of spring fertilizer and manure application, soil thawing, and elevated soil moisture. Finally, the inversions reveal a major emission underestimate in the US Corn Belt in the bottom-up inventory used here. We extensively test the impact of initial conditions on the analysis and recommend formally optimizing the initial N2O distribution to avoid biasing the inferred fluxes. We find that the SVD-based approach provides a powerful framework for deriving emission information from N2O observations: by defining the optimal resolution of the solution based on the information content of the inversion, it provides spatial information that is lost when aggregating to political or geographic regions, while also providing more temporal information than a standard 4D-Var inversion.

Sensitivity of black carbon concentrations and climate impact to aging and scavenging in OsloCTM2–M7

Abstract. Accurate representation of black carbon (BC) concentrations in climate models is a key prerequisite for understanding its net climate impact. BC aging and scavenging are treated very differently in current models. Here, we examine the sensitivity of three-dimensional (3-D), temporally resolved BC concentrations to perturbations to individual model processes in the chemistry transport model OsloCTM2–M7. The main goals are to identify processes related to aerosol aging and scavenging where additional observational constraints may most effectively improve model performance, in particular for BC vertical profiles, and to give an indication of how model uncertainties in the BC life cycle propagate into uncertainties in climate impacts. Coupling OsloCTM2 with the microphysical aerosol module M7 allows us to investigate aging processes in more detail than possible with a simpler bulk parameterization. Here we include, for the first time in this model, a treatment of condensation of nitric acid on BC. Using kernels, we also estimate the range of radiative forcing and global surface temperature responses that may result from perturbations to key tunable parameters in the model. We find that BC concentrations in OsloCTM2–M7 are particularly sensitive to convective scavenging and the inclusion of condensation by nitric acid. The largest changes are found at higher altitudes around the Equator and at low altitudes over the Arctic. Convective scavenging of hydrophobic BC, and the amount of sulfate required for BC aging, are found to be key parameters, potentially reducing bias against HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) flight-based measurements by 60 to 90 %. Even for extensive tuning, however, the total impact on global-mean surface temperature is estimated to less than 0.04 K. Similar results are found when nitric acid is allowed to condense on the BC aerosols. We conclude, in line with previous studies, that a shorter atmospheric BC lifetime broadly improves the comparison with measurements over the Pacific. However, we also find that the model–measurement discrepancies can not be uniquely attributed to uncertainties in a single process or parameter. Model development therefore needs to be focused on improvements to individual processes, supported by a broad range of observational and experimental data, rather than tuning of individual, effective parameters such as the global BC lifetime.

Direct comparisons of ice cloud macro- and microphysical properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with HIPPO aircraft observations

Abstract. In this study we evaluate cloud properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using in situ measurements from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign for the period of 2009 to 2011. The modeled wind and temperature are nudged towards reanalysis. Model results collocated with HIPPO flight tracks are directly compared with the observations, and model sensitivities to the representations of ice nucleation and growth are also examined. Generally, CAM5 is able to capture specific cloud systems in terms of vertical configuration and horizontal extension. In total, the model reproduces 79.8 % of observed cloud occurrences inside model grid boxes and even higher (94.3 %) for ice clouds (T ≤ −40 °C). The missing cloud occurrences in the model are primarily ascribed to the fact that the model cannot account for the high spatial variability of observed relative humidity (RH). Furthermore, model RH biases are mostly attributed to the discrepancies in water vapor, rather than temperature. At the micro-scale of ice clouds, the model captures the observed increase of ice crystal mean sizes with temperature, albeit with smaller sizes than the observations. The model underestimates the observed ice number concentration (Ni) and ice water content (IWC) for ice crystals larger than 75 µm in diameter. Modeled IWC and Ni are more sensitive to the threshold diameter for autoconversion of cloud ice to snow (Dcs), while simulated ice crystal mean size is more sensitive to ice nucleation parameterizations than to Dcs. Our results highlight the need for further improvements to the sub-grid RH variability and ice nucleation and growth in the model.

Bias corrections of GOSAT SWIR XCO<sub>2</sub> and XCH<sub>4</sub> with TCCON data and their evaluation using aircraft measurement data

Abstract. We describe a method for removing systematic biases of column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) and CH4 (XCH4) derived from short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) spectra of the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). We conduct correlation analyses between the GOSAT biases and simultaneously retrieved auxiliary parameters. We use these correlations to bias correct the GOSAT data, removing these spurious correlations. Data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) were used as reference values for this regression analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of this correction method, the uncorrected/corrected GOSAT data were compared to independent XCO2 and XCH4 data derived from aircraft measurements taken for the Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) project, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole observations (HIPPO) program, and the GOSAT validation aircraft observation campaign over Japan. These comparisons demonstrate that the empirically derived bias correction improves the agreement between GOSAT XCO2/XCH4 and the aircraft data. Finally, we present spatial distributions and temporal variations of the derived GOSAT biases.

Using airborne HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) to evaluate model and remote sensing estimates of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Abstract. In recent years, space-borne observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) have been increasingly used in global carbon-cycle studies. In order to obtain added value from space-borne measurements, they have to suffice stringent accuracy and precision requirements, with the latter being less crucial as it can be reduced by just enhanced sample size. Validation of CO2 column-averaged dry air mole fractions (XCO2) heavily relies on measurements of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Owing to the sparseness of the network and the requirements imposed on space-based measurements, independent additional validation is highly valuable. Here, we use observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) flights from 01/2009 through 09/2011 to validate CO2 measurements from satellites (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite – GOSAT, Thermal Emission Sounder – TES, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder – AIRS) and atmospheric inversion models (CarbonTracker CT2013B, Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) v13r1). We find that the atmospheric models capture the XCO2 variability observed in HIPPO flights very well, with correlation coefficients (r2) of 0.93 and 0.95 for CT2013B and MACC, respectively. Some larger discrepancies can be observed in profile comparisons at higher latitudes, in particular at 300 hPa during the peaks of either carbon uptake or release. These deviations can be up to 4 ppm and hint at misrepresentation of vertical transport. Comparisons with the GOSAT satellite are of comparable quality, with an r2 of 0.85, a mean bias μ of −0.06 ppm, and a standard deviation σ of 0.45 ppm. TES exhibits an r2 of 0.75, μ of 0.34 ppm, and σ of 1.13 ppm. For AIRS, we find an r2 of 0.37, μ of 1.11 ppm, and σ of 1.46 ppm, with latitude-dependent biases. For these comparisons at least 6, 20, and 50 atmospheric soundings have been averaged for GOSAT, TES, and AIRS, respectively. Overall, we find that GOSAT soundings over the remote Pacific Ocean mostly meet the stringent accuracy requirements of about 0.5 ppm for space-based CO2 observations.