Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development In Patients Research Articles

Clinical Utility of the aMAP Score for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the aMAP score and compare it with other risk scores for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in Thai patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We retrospectively analyzed patients with CHB between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2019. Data on demographics, clinical parameters, cirrhosis status, HCC imaging, and alpha fetoprotein surveillance were collected to calculate the aMAP score (0-100) based on age, sex, albumin-bilirubin level, and platelet count. Of the 1060 patients analyzed, 789 were eligible, of whom 51 developed HCC. The cumulative HCC incidences in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups at 3, 5, and 10 years were significantly different (log-rank, p < 0.0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the aMAP scores for predicting HCC at 3, 5, and 10 years were 0.748, 0.777, and 0.784, respectively. Among the risk scores, the CU-HCC score had the highest AUROCs (0.823) for predicting 5-year HCC development. The aMAP score is a valuable tool for predicting HCC risk in Thai patients with CHB and can enhance surveillance strategies. However, its performance is inferior to that of the CU-HCC score, suggesting the need for new predictive tools for HCC surveillance.

Impact of clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential on hepatocellular carcinoma in individuals with steatotic liver disease.

Metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a global epidemic and is the most rapidly rising cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) contributes to neoplastic and cardiometabolic disorders and is considered a harbinger of tissue inflammation. CHIP was recently associated with increased risk of liver disease. The aim of this study was to examine whether CHIP is associated with HCC development in patients with SLD. We considered individuals with MASLD-HCC (n=208) and controls with (n=414) and without (n=259) advanced fibrosis who underwent whole exome sequencing. CHIP was diagnosed when ≥2 variant callers identified a known myeloid mutation with VAF ≥2%. CHIP was observed in 116 participants (13.1%), most frequently in DNMT3A, TET2, TP53 and ASXL1, and correlated with age (p<0.0001) and advanced liver fibrosis (p=0.001). Higher AST levels predicted non-DNMT3A-CHIP, in particular with variant allele frequency (VAF)≥10% (OR 1.14, 1.03-1.28 and OR 1.30, 1.12-1.49, respectively, p<0.05). After adjustment for sex, diabetes and a polygenic risk score of inherited MASLD predisposition CHIP was associated with cirrhosis (2.00, 1.30-3.15, p=0.02), and with HCC even after further adjustment for cirrhosis (OR 1.81, 1.11-2.00, 1.30-3.15, p=0.002). Despite the strong collinearity among aging and development of CHIP and HCC, non-DNTM3A-CHIP and TET2 lesions remained associated with HCC after full correction for clinical/genetics covariates and age (OR 2.45, 1.35-4.53; OR 4.8, 1.60-17.0, p=0.02). We observed an independent association between CHIP, particularly related to non-DNTM3A and TET2 genetic lesions, and MASLD-HCC.

MADRES predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with hepatitis C virus who achieved sustained virological response.

The study aims to develop a novel predictive model including the fibrosis (FIB)-3 index for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. This study included 2529 patients in whom HCV was eradicated with DAA therapy. The after DAA recommendation for surveillance (ADRES) score, which is based on sex, FIB-4 index, and α-fetoprotein, was used to predict HCC development. We developed a modified ADRES (mADRES) score, in which the FIB-4 index was replaced by the FIB-3 index, and evaluated its usefulness in predicting HCC development compared with the ADRES score. In the training set (n=1770), multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazards modeling showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-3.01), FIB-3 index (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.28-1.45), and α-fetoprotein (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.07) are independently associated with HCC development. The incidence of HCC differed significantly by ADRES or mADRES score in multiple comparisons. Univariate Cox proportional hazards models showed that compared with the mADRES score 0 group, the HR for HCC development was 2.07 (95% CI, 1.02-4.19) for the mADRES score 1 group, 11.37 (95% CI, 5.80-22.27) for the mADRES score 2 group, and 21.95 (95% CI, 10.17-47.38) for the mADRES score 3 group. Similar results were obtained for mADRES score but not for ADRES score in the validation set (n=759). The mADRES score is useful for predicting HCC development after SVR.

Triglyceride-Glucose Index is an Independent Risk Factor for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with HBV-Related Liver Cirrhosis.

This study aimed to explore the effects of the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver cirrhosis (LC). A total of 242 patients with HBV-related LC were enrolled and followed-up. Logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate risk factors for HCC. The median follow-up time was 37 months (range: 6-123 months). At the end of the follow-up, 11 (11.3%) patients with compensated cirrhosis (CC) and 45 (31.0%) with decompensated cirrhosis (DC) developed HCC. The TyG index was higher in the HCC group than in the non-HCC group (P=0.05). Univariate analysis showed that age (P<0.01), DC (P<0.01), TyG index (P=0.08), albumin (ALB) level (P=0.05), platelet (PLT) count (P<0.01), and HBV DNA positivity (P<0.01) were associated with HCC development. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, DC, TyG index, PLT count, and HBV DNA positivity were independent risk factors for HCC development (P=0.01, 0.01, <0.01, 0.05, and <0.01, respectively). For patients with DC, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age, TyG index, and HBV DNA positivity were independent risk factors for HCC development (all P<0.05). A new model encompassing age, DC, TyG, PLT, and positive HBV DNA had optimal predictive accuracy in patients with DC or CC, with a cutoff value of 0.197. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the model for predicting HCC development in patients with LC, DC, and CC were 0.778, 0.721, and 0.783, respectively. TyG index was identified as an independent risk factor for HCC development in patients with LC.

Prevalence and prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in alcohol-associated liver disease: a retrospective study of 136 571 patients with chronic liver diseases

Background and aimsTo explore the incidence of alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), evaluate possible synergisms between alcohol and well-known risk factors associated with HCC and establish a nomogram to predict alcohol-associated...

A novel formula used for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma after the achievement of sustained virologic response by direct-acting antivirals in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Although eliminating HCV can prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), some patients develop HCC even after obtaining sustained virologic response (SVR). Previously, we developed a new formula to predict advanced liver fibrosis. This study aimed to clarify the usefulness of this formula for predicting HCC after achieving SVR. Among 351 consecutive patients who had been treated with direct-acting antivirals, 299 were included in this study. New formula scores were used as a marker for predicting liver fibrosis and as a predictive model for HCC incidence. The participants were 172 men and 127 women with a median age of 68 years. The median new formula score was -1.291. The cumulative HCC incidence rates were 4.3%, 9.7%, and 12.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. The cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher in patients with a history of HCC than in those without treatment history of HCC (P = 2.52×10-26). Multivariate analysis revealed that male (HR = 6.584, 95% CI = 1.291-33.573, P = 0.023) and new formula score (HR = 1.741, 95% CI = 1.041-2.911, P = 0.035) were independent factors associated with the development of HCC in patients without a treatment history of HCC. The optimal cutoff value for predicting the development of HCC was -0.214. The cumulative incidence rates of HCC in patients with new formula scores ≥-0.214 were 5.4%, 15.3%, and 15.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, whereas the incidence rates of HCC in patients with new formula scores <-0.214 were 0.0%, 0.6%, and 4.8%, respectively (P = 2.12×10-4). In conclusion, this study demonstrated the usefulness of new formula scores as a predictor of HCC after achieving SVR, especially in patients without past treatment history of treatment for HCC.

PAGE-B incorporating moderate HBV DNA levels predicts risk of HCC among patients entering into HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B

Recent studies reported that moderate HBV DNA levels are significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive, non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to develop and validate a new risk score to predict HCC development using baseline moderate HBV DNA levels in patients entering into HBeAg-positive CHB from chronic infection. This multicenter cohort study recruited 3,585 HBeAg-positive, non-cirrhotic patients who started antiviral treatment with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate at phase change into CHB from chronic infection in 23 tertiary university-affiliated hospitals of South Korea (2012-2020). A new HCC risk score (PAGED-B) was developed (training cohort, n= 2,367) based on multivariable Cox models. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation (validation cohort, n= 1,218) were performed. Sixty (1.7%) patients developed HCC (median follow-up, 5.4 years). In the training cohort, age, gender, platelets, diabetes and moderate HBV DNA levels (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/ml) were independently associated with HCC development; the PAGED-B score (based on these five predictors) showed a time-dependent AUROC of 0.81 for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years. In the validation cohort, the AUROC of PAGED-B was 0.85, significantly higher than for other risk scores (PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CAMD, and REAL-B). When stratified by the PAGED-B score, the HCC risk was significantly higher in high-risk patients than in low-risk patients (sub-distribution hazard ratio= 8.43 in the training and 11.59 in the validation cohorts, all p <0.001). The newly established PAGED-B score may enable risk stratification for HCC at the time of transition into HBeAg-positive CHB. In this study, we developed and validated a new risk score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients entering into hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) from chronic infection. The newly established PAGED-B score, which included baseline moderate HBV DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml), improved on the predictive performance of prior risk scores. Based on a patient's age, gender, diabetic status, platelet count, and moderate DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml) at the phase change into CHB from chronic infection, the PAGED-B score represents a reliable and easily available risk score to predict HCC development during the first 5 years of antiviral treatment in HBeAg-positive patients entering into CHB. With a scoring range from 0 to 12 points, the PAGED-B score significantly differentiated the 5-year HCC risk: low <7 points and high ≥7 points.

Usefulness of Fibrosis-4 Index for the stratification of the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B on long-term follow-up: a single center experience.

Usefulness of Fibrosis-4 Index for the stratification of the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B on long-term follow-up: a single center experience.

Fibrosis-4 index is associated with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

Identification of high-risk patients for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is essential for long term monitoring of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis progression. We sought to evaluate the association between Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and incidence of HCC risk among patients with NASH cirrhosis. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with NASH cirrhosis (n= 1,338) who were evaluated in a single medical center between 2005 and 2015. Those who developed HCC were identified through electronic medical records using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 9 and 10 codes until the end of September 2021. During a median follow-up time of 3.7 years, 157 (11.7%) patients with NASH cirrhosis developed HCC. At index visit, the study population had a median age 57 years, 43% males, 78.8% White, and mean FIB-4 index 4.2. The final multivariable Cox regression model revealed that male sex, BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2, and hypertension were independent factors associated with development of HCC in patients with NASH cirrhosis. Compared to patients with FIB-4 ¾ 1.45, patients with FIB-4 between 1.45-3.25 had a similar hazard of HCC (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.12, 95% CI: 0.67-1.86, p=0.670), whereas patients with FIB-4 >3.25 had a 1.93 (95% CI: 1.22-3.05, p=0.005) increased hazard of HCC. FIB-4 > 3.25 was an independent factor associated with increased HCC risk among NASH cirrhosis patients. FIB-4 index is a promising tool for determining high-risk patients and may be used in routine clinical practice to monitor risk of HCC in patients with NASH cirrhosis.

FIB‑4 index and serum α‑fetoprotein are useful predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis B patients with nucleos(t)ide analogs therapy.

Current antiviral therapies cannot achieve eradication of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and can reduce but not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic HBV infection. The present study aimed to identify the risk factors for HCC development by analyzing nucleoside analogue (NA)-treated patients as a retrospective cohort using fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4 index) as a non-invasive fibrosis marker. A total of 260 patients with HBV receiving NAs without a history of HCC between January 2001 and January 2021 were included in the present study. The incidence of HCC in patients with HBV during NA therapy and the factors contributing to HCC occurrence were identified using clinical characteristics and blood test results. Among the 260 patients, 40 patients (15.4%) developed HCC. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that age [hazard ratio (HR), 1.03; P=0.045], male sex (HR, 3.14; P<0.01) and FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment <1.95 (HR, 4.35; P<0.01) correlated with the incidence of HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment >1.95 was significantly higher compared with that in patients with FIB-4 index ≤1.95 (P<0.01). Multivariate analysis in patients in which serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level at 6 months after NA treatment was measured showed that FIB-4 index >1.95 (HR, 8.27; P=0.014) and serum AFP level >4 ng/ml (HR, 4.26; P=0.033) contributed to HCC occurrence. FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment and serum AFP levels at 6 months after NA treatment were predictors for the development of HCC in patients with HBV during NA treatment. Further study of hepatocarcinogenesis during NA with a longer follow-up period and larger numbers of participants is required.

Entecavir versus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate on the reduction of incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B‐related liver cirrhosis

AbstractThis study aimed to compare the effect of long‐term continuous entecavir (ETV) compared with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) on the reduction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) related liver cirrhosis. This study recruited patients who had CHB‐related liver cirrhosis and received ETV or TDF treatment for more than 6 months. Regular assessments of ultrasonography and alpha‐fetoprotein test were arranged every 3 months for HCC detection. Five‐year cumulative incidence of HCC and risk factors for HCC development were analyzed. A total of 286 consecutive cirrhotic patients were included, 198 in the ETV group and 88 in the TDF group. During a median follow‐up of 57.5 months, 25 (12.6%) patients in the ETV group and 12 (13.6%) patients in the TDF group developed HCC. The 5‐year cumulative incidence of HCC was comparable between the ETV and TDF groups (6.57% vs. 9.09%, log‐rank p = .242). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed that male, old age, diabetes, and low platelet count were independent risk factors for HCC development. This study observed that long‐term ETV or TDF provided comparable preventive effects on HCC development in patients with CHB‐related liver cirrhosis.

Factors associated with persistent positive in HBV DNA level in patients with chronic Hepatitis B receiving entecavir treatment.

The clinical significance of persistent positive in Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) DNA level in patients receiving antiviral therapy is not well known. We investigated factors associated with persistent viremia (PV) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) given 78-week entecavir. A total of 394 treatment-naïve CHB patients who had undergone liver biopsy at baseline and week 78 of treatment were analyzed in this prospective multicentre study. We identified patients with PV (above the lower limit of quantification, 20 IU/ml) after 78 weeks of entecavir therapy. Stepwise, forward, multivariate regression analyses of specified baseline parameters were apllied to identify factors associated with PV. Futhermore, we assessed the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in all patients using models of the risk of HCC development. Of the 394 patients, 90 (22.8%) still with PV after 78-week antiviral treatment. Factors associated significantly with PV (vs complete virological response, CVR) were HBV DNA level ≥8 log10 IU/mL (OR, 3.727; 95% CI, 1.851-7.505; P < 0.001), Anti-HBc level < 3 log10 IU/mL (OR, 2.384; 95% CI, 1.223-4.645; P=0.011), and HBeAg seropositivity (OR, 2.871; 95% CI, 1.563-5.272; P < 0.001). Patients with PV were less likely to have fibrosis progression and HCC development than those with the CVR. Of the 11 HBeAg-positive patients with HBV DNA level ≥8 log10 IU/mL and Anti-HBc level < 3 log10 IU/mL at baseline, 9 (81.8%) had persistent positivity in HBV DNA level and 0 had fibrosis progression at week 78 of treatment. In conclusion, HBV DNA level ≥8 log10 IU/mL, Anti-HBc level < 3 log10 IU/mL and HBeAg seropositivity at baseline contribute to PV in patients with CHB receiving 78-week antiviral treatment. In addition, the rate of fibrosis progression and the risk of HCC development in patients with PV were kept low. The complete protocol for the clinical trial has been registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01962155 and NCT03568578).

OS-087 - Digital pathology using stain-free imaging indices allows direct prediction of all-cause mortality, hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

OS-087 - Digital pathology using stain-free imaging indices allows direct prediction of all-cause mortality, hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Multicenter, retrospective, cohort study shows platelet counts predict hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Impacts of platelet counts at the time of liver biopsy on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remain unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of platelet counts in patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD using data from a multicenter study. One thousand three hundred ninety-eight patients were included in this subanalysis of the CLIONE (Clinical Outcome Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease) in Asia study. Liver biopsy specimens were pathologically diagnosed, and histologically scored using the NASH Clinical Research Network system. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and pathological data were collected. During a median follow-up period of 4.6years (range, 0.3-21.6years), which corresponds to 8874 person-years, 37 patients developed HCC. Using a cut-off baseline platelet count of 192×109/L, the lower platelet group had a higher HCC rate than the higher platelet group (6.7% vs. 0.4%; p<0.001). This cut-off value significantly stratified the event-free rate for HCC. Lower platelet counts were associated with an increased risk of HCC development. Relative to patients with platelet counts of 192×109/L, patients with platelet counts of 100×109/L had an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for HCC development of 7.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.81-14.2) and an adjusted HR of 11.2 (95% CI, 3.81-32.7; p<0.001), adjusting for age, sex, NASH,anddiabetes. Baseline platelet counts of 192×109/L and lower are associated with a higher risk of developing HCC in patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD and require active surveillance.

Effect of fatty liver and fibrosis on hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B who received nucleic acid analog therapy.

The number of patients with fatty liver has been increasing worldwide; however, the significance of fatty liver in patients with chronic hepatitis B who are receiving nucleic acid analog (NA) therapy remains unclear. Thus, we aimed to determine whether fatty liver affects the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients receiving NA therapy. This study included 445 patients who received NA therapy, and the development of HCC was investigated. The primary outcome was the association between fatty liver and HCC development. During a mean follow-up period of 7.4 years, 46 patients (10.3%) developed HCC. No significant difference in the cumulative incidence of HCC was observed between patients with fatty liver and those without (p= 0.17). Multivariable analysis for age, gender, platelet count, alanine aminotransferase level at 1year following NA therapy, and fatty liver revealed that the presence of fatty liver was not a significant factor for HCC development (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.5-1.9). In another multivariable analysis for advanced fibrosis, gender, and fatty liver, advanced fibrosis was found to be a significant factor for HCC development (HR: 9.50, 95% CI: 5.1-18) but not fatty liver (HR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.5-1.7). In conclusion, in patients with chronic hepatitis B who received NA therapy, advanced fibrosis was found to be an important risk factor for HCC development but not fatty liver, suggesting the importance of providing treatment before the progression of liver fibrosis regardless of the presence of fatty liver.

Association of PNPLA3 SNP With the Development of HBV-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Concomitant nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/hepatic steatosis (HS) is suggested to increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis virus B (HBV)-infected patients. Patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing 3 (PNPLA3) rs738409 gene single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is well-known to be associated with the development of NAFLD/HS; however, it is still unclear whether this SNP is related to the development of HCC in HBV-infected patients. We investigated a total of 202 HBV-infected patients who received percutaneous liver biopsy, and simultaneously assessed biopsy-proven HS, insulin resistance, and the PNPLA3 SNP status. We further investigated the relationships of these factors with the development of HCC in HBV-infected patients. Most of the enrolled cases (196/202: 97.0%) were non-cirrhotic patients. One hundred seventy-three patients (85.6%) received antiviral therapy. A Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the incidence of HCC development in patients with HS was higher than that in patients without HS (p<0.01). An increased homeostasis model assessment as an index of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) value (≥1.6) was associated not only with the presence of HS (p<0.0001) but also with the development of HCC (p<0.01). The PNPLA3 rs738409 SNP was also associated with the presence of HS (p<0.01) and the development of HCC (p<0.05) in HBV-infected patients. In addition to HS and IR, PNPLA3 rs738409 SNP was suggested to be associated with the development of HCC in Japanese patients with HBV infection.

Suboptimal Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis.

This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of pre-existing well-validated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models, established in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started potent antiviral therapy (AVT). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 1339 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started AVT (median period, 56.8 months). The scores of the pre-existing HCC risk prediction models were calculated at the time of AVT initiation. HCC developed in 211 patients (15.1%), and the cumulative probability of HCC development at 5 years was 14.6%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.023), lower platelet count (aHR, 0.997), lower serum albumin level (aHR, 0.578), and greater LS value (aHR, 1.012) were associated with HCC development. Harrell’s c-indices of the PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, modified REACH-B, CAMD, aMAP, HCC-RESCUE, AASL-HCC, Toronto HCC Risk Index, PLAN-B, APA-B, CAGE-B, and SAGE-B models were suboptimal in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, ranging from 0.565 to 0.667. Nevertheless, almost all patients were well stratified into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk groups according to each model (all log-rank p < 0.05), except for HCC-RESCUE (p = 0.080). Since all low-risk patients had cirrhosis at baseline, they had unneglectable cumulative incidence of HCC development (5-year incidence, 4.9−7.5%). Pre-existing risk prediction models for patients with chronic hepatitis B showed suboptimal predictive performances for the assessment of HCC development in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.

Longitudinal changes in fibrosis markers are associated with risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Currently, there is no consistent information on the course of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score changes in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or their association with subsequent risk of cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thus, we aimed to evaluate the association between longitudinal changes in FIB-4 and subsequent risk of HCC and a composite endpoint of cirrhosis and HCC in patients with NAFLD. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with NAFLD seen in 130 Veterans Administration hospitals between 1/1/2004-12/31/2008, with follow-up through to 12/31/2018. We calculated FIB-4 longitudinally and categorized patients based on risk of advanced fibrosis (low-risk FIB-4 <1.45, indeterminate-risk FIB-4 1.45-2.67, and high-risk FIB-4 >2.67). We used landmark Fine-Gray competing risks models to determine the effects of change in FIB-4 between NAFLD diagnosis date and 3-year landmark time on the subsequent risk of HCC and a composite endpoint. Among the 202,319 patients with NAFLD in the 3-year landmark analysis, 473 progressed to HCC at an incidence rate of 0.28 per 1,000 person years (PY) (95% CI 0.26-0.30). The incidence rate of the composite endpoint was 1.31 per 1,000 PY (95% CI 1.25-1.37). At baseline, 74.7%, 21.4%, and 3.8% of patients had a low, indeterminate, and high FIB-4, respectively. Compared to patients who were at stable low FIB-4 at both time points, the risk of HCC and that of the composite endpoint was higher for all other subgroups with the highest risk in patients with persistently high FIB-4 (HCC adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio 57.7, 95% CI 40.5-82.2 and composite endpoint hazard ratio 28.6, 95% CI 24.6-33.2). Longitudinal changes in FIB-4 were strongly associated with progression to cirrhosis and HCC. Tools to stratify the risk of HCC development in patients with NAFLD are currently lacking. The fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score is a widely available non-invasive test for liver fibrosis, a primary determinant of the development of cirrhosis and HCC. In a large retrospective cohort of patients with NAFLD, we found that serial changes in FIB-4 over time were strongly associated with progression to cirrhosis and HCC. Integrating serial measurements of non-invasive tests for fibrosis into the care pathway for patients with NAFLD could help tailor HCC risk prevention.

Low HDL-cholesterol levels predict hepatocellular carcinoma development in individuals with liver fibrosis

Dysmetabolic conditions could drive liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), increasing susceptibility to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We therefore aimed to identify novel predictive biomarkers of HCC in patients with and without liver fibrosis. A total of 1,234 patients with putative metabolic conditions and NAFLD were consecutively assessed in our outpatient clinic. Clinical and biochemical data were recorded, and then liver ultrasonography was performed annually for 5 years to detect HCC onset. For the analysis, the population was first divided according to HCC diagnosis; then a further subdivision of those who did not develop HCC was performed based on the presence or absence of liver fibrosis at time0. Sixteen HCC cases were recorded in 5 years. None of our patients had been diagnosed with cirrhosis before HCC was detected. Compared to patients who did not develop HCC, those who did had higher liver transaminases and fibrosis scores at time 0 (p <0.001). In addition, they presented with increased glycated haemoglobin levels and lower 25-OH vitamin D levels (p <0.05). Intriguingly, patients with higher liver fibrosis scores who subsequently developed HCC had lower HDL-cholesterol (HDL-c) levels at time 0 (p <0.001). Furthermore, in the 484 patients presenting with lower HDL-c at baseline, we found that waist circumference, and then vitamin D and glycated haemoglobin levels, were significantly different in those who developed HCC, regardless of liver fibrosis (p <0.05). This study identifies HDL-c as a bona fide novel marker to predict HCC in patients with NAFLD. Increased waist circumference and deranged metabolic pathways represent additional predisposing factors among patients with low HDL-c, highlighting the importance of studying cholesterol metabolism and integrating clinical approaches with dietary regimens and a healthy lifestyle to prevent HCC. Visceral adiposity and its associated conditions, such as chronic inflammation and insulin resistance, may play a pivotal role in hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. We provide new insights on the underlying mechanisms of its pathogenesis, shedding light on the involvement of low levels of "good" HDL-cholesterol. We recommend integrating dietary regimens and advice on healthy lifestyles into the clinical management of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, with the goal of reducing the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma.

The Age, Gamma-Glutamyl Transpeptidase and Platelet Index: A Novel Noninvasive Model for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Liver Cirrhosis.

Background and AimsHigh incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exists in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC), but the predictive accuracy of noninvasive scoring systems (NSSs) is yet to be elucidated. The present study aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio (GPR) in patients with LC, and to establish a new model with more accuracy.MethodsData from 94 patients with compensated LC and 134 patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC) were collected. The prediction accuracy of NSSs, including APRI, GPR, and FIB-4, was compared.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 37.5 months, 9 patients in the compensated LC group and 38 in the DC group developed HCC. For 228 patients, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of APRI, GPR, and FIB-4 was 0.596, 0.625, and 0.654, respectively. Multivariable logistic analysis showed that age, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and platelet (PLT) were independent risk factors for HCC development, and a new model encompassing age, GGT, and PLT was superior to NSSs (all P<0.05). With an optimal cutoff value of 0.216, Model (Age_GGT_PLT) achieved 68.09% sensitivity and 69.61% specificity.ConclusionNSSs, including APRI, GPR, and FIB-4, has a non-optimal accuracy in predicting HCC development in patients with HBV-related LC. Thus, the new model consisting of age, GGT, and PLT may be more accurate than NSSs.