Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative Research Articles

Towards HIPC 2.0? Lessons from Past Debt Relief Initiatives for Addressing Current Debt Problems

Abstract When the COVID-19 pandemic added to already elevated debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries, the G20 launched the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) and the Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, which have provided limited relief so far. For several countries, deeper and more wide-ranging debt treatments will likely be needed to secure future debt sustainability. This paper looks at the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, the largest and most comprehensive debt relief effort for low-income countries to date, as a potential reference point for the 2020s. While the HIPC initiative appears to have been a qualified success, its replication in the current context would be infeasible and undesirable. Creditor base heterogeneity justifies a more flexible, differentiated approach to debt restructuring. Yet, the HIPC experience holds valuable lessons. “Delay and replay” tendencies should be avoided. Involving commercial creditors is a real challenge, requiring carrots and sticks. And imposing extra conditionality on debt relief proceeds could be helpful but should not be overdone. Even if the Common Framework is unlikely to suffice in case of a systemic debt crisis, its inter-creditor dialogue could perhaps serve as the basis for a more inclusive advisory body or forum for debt restructuring.

Welfare implications of external debt and capital flight in Sub-Saharan Africa (Evidence using panel data modelling)

AbstractThe countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have experienced a positive growth rate of over five per cent per year, on average, since their transition from the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative in 1996 and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative in 2006. Despite this growth, poverty and inequality are still very high. Employing the Driscoll – Kraay standard panel estimation method and dataset from 1990 to 2015, this paper sets out to examine the implications of external debt and capital flight on the general welfare of the people. The estimation results reveal that both external debt and capital flight have a welfare inhibiting effect, suggesting that increases in external borrowing or capital flight may lead to a reduction in the welfare of the people in the sub-region. The study, therefore, recommends to policymakers and government in the sub-region the need to tackle the revolving nature of external borrowing and capital flight and take steps to halt all channels through which deservingly acquired capital leaves the sub-region.

Does debt relief “irresistibly attract banks as honey attracts bees”? Evidence from low-income countries’ debt relief programs

The Covid-19 crisis has recently rekindled discussions about debt relief, leading official lenders to grant a moratorium on low-income countries’ external public debt service. Private creditors, which had massively invested in LICs (especially in Africa), have been so far relatively spared. But would they keep lending to these countries if a new wave of debt write-offs were to occur? Building on the two largest debt relief programs for LICs, namely the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), we investigate whether debt relief leads international private creditors to withdraw or to resume lending to beneficiary governments. Using a difference-in-differences approach, our results suggest that debt relief has fostered borrowing from private creditors, and identify the absence of reputational effects and the short-term horizon of private creditors as the key drivers that made renewed access to the credit market possible.

Somalia

This paper presents an assessment of Somalia’s eligibility for assistance under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The macroeconomic framework reflects the policy framework underlying the proposed three-year Fund-supported program. The debt relief analysis (DRA) remains largely unchanged, but some of the underlying debt data has been updated to reflect new information from creditors. In addition, this paper presents an assessment of debt management capacity in Somalia and a full Debt Sustainability Analysis under the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries. The DRA reveals that, after traditional debt relief mechanisms are applied, Somalia’s debt burden expressed as the net present value of debt-to-exports ratio is 344.2 percent at the end of December 2018—significantly above the HIPC Initiative threshold. Despite the challenging environment, progress on reform and policy implementation has been good and sustained reforms have translated into economic results. In addition to the coordinated support from the World Bank and the IMF, reforms have been supported by other development partners.

The Effectiveness of Debt Relief: Assessing the Influence of the HIPC Initiative and MDRI on Tanzania’s Health Sector

Debt relief initiatives have been part of the international development sphere since the early 1990s. With the launch of the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative in 1996 and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) in 2005 many countries have been able to successfully qualify for debt relief. Tanzania has been one of the primary beneficiaries of debt relief over the years. While empirical evidence demonstrates that the country’s economic growth has been positively impacted by debt relief initiatives, other aspects of human development need to be analyzed to ensure a comprehensive assessment of the HIPC Initiative and the MDRI. This study compiles Tanzania’s health data into a composite indicator to perform a graphical analysis to compare the trends between health outcomes and external debt. The graphical analysis is contextualized through a qualitative analysis of political, economic and health financing literature from the Bank of Tanzania, UNICEF and USAID. The results indicate that there health outcomes improved throughout the whole study’s time period particularly after the HIPC Initiative. The health financing literature also points to increased development expenditure during this period. Nonetheless, the effects of debt relief seem to diminish in the long-term due to fluctuations in external donors and logistical barriers to budget execution. Tanzania also continues to face socio-economic and geographic disparities in health outcomes and funding. Some of the literature also states that the country’s weak system of checks and balances and the lack of robust institutions could cause opportunistic policy preferences that might not necessarily improve Tanzania’s health outcomes. KEYWORDS: Child Mortality Rate; Debt Relief; External Debt; Heavily Indebted Poor Country Initiative; International Monetary Fund; Life Expectancy; Maternal Mortality Rate; Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative; Official Development Aid; Prevalence of Undernourishment

IS THERE MORAL HAZARD IN THE HEAVILY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES (HIPC) INITIATIVE DEBT RELIEF PROCESS?

The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) were created by the IMF and World Bank to help low-income countries reduce their debt burden and to facilitate reaching the Millennium Development Goals. After entering he decision point of the HIPC Initiative stage, countries receive interim aid while following a strategic path to improve their macroeconomic stability via structural reforms. Many countries reached the completion point of the HIPC Initiative stage within a few years, receiving a substantial amount of debt relief. Other countries remained in the interim period for almost a decade. We explore the relationship between the level of corruption in HIPC countries and the length of time between the decision and the completion point. We use survival-time models to estimate the effect of various characteristics of the countries on the probability that each country will exit the interim period. The results show that countries with lower corruption and better rule of law complete the HIPC process faster.

Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Integration in the EAC Countries

A major challenge for most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is the evaluation of the exchange rate. This is more so in the East African Community (EAC) where macroeconomic and exchange rate management has been particularly challenged by massive foreign aid inflows, which are partly a result of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative and other debt reliefs. In addition, improved macroeconomic management in the last decade attracted both short- and medium- to long-term inflows to the region, as foreign investors turn to developing and emerging economies for yield. In this paper, we estimate the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate model for all the countries in the EAC and assess the convergence of existing exchange rate regimes in the EAC. Our main contribution is that this exercise could serve as useful background for the ultimate decision of which exchange rate management framework will best fit the region during the transition period to monetary union.

The impact of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative on growth and investment in Africa

Between 1996 and 2014, 30 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries benefited from debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). The architects of the HIPC initiative and MDRI posited that these programs would spur growth and investment. This paper exploits the variability of participation in the HIPC initiative and MDRI across time and country, in order to identity the effect of participation on growth and investment. I find that the decision point and post-completion point periods of the enhanced HIPC initiative are associated with a 1.762 percentage point and 3.139 percentage point increase in public investment, respectively. The impact is higher in countries with low access to international capital markets. The enhanced HIPC initiative increases private investment by 1.838 percentage points during the post-completion point period in countries with low access to international capital, for approximately two years, but has no effect on growth or foreign direct investment. I find no effect of the original HIPC initiative or MDRI on growth, private investment, public investment or foreign direct investment. I find no heterogeneous impact of the enhanced HIPC initiative on growth and foreign direct investment by level of indebtedness, access to international capital markets, or institutional quality. As the measures of institutional quality have barely changed between 1996 and 2014 in HIPC countries, the results of this paper suggest that without a strong improvement in institutional quality, debt relief is unlikely to boost investment and growth in Africa. Possible future debt relief in SSA countries should be associated with a component directly aimed at improving institutional quality. If an improvement of institutional quality is not feasible in the short run, debt relief in SSA countries should aim to support public investment.

Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI)—Statistical Update

The HIPC Initiative and MDRI are nearly complete, with 36 countries having reached the completion point under the HIPC Initiative. Debt relief under the Initiative has alleviated debt burdens substantially in recipient countries and has enabled them to increase their poverty-reducing expenditure by over one and a half percentage points of GDP between 2001 and 2015. Creditor participation in the HIPC Initiative has been strong amongst the multilateral and Paris Club creditors; however participation from other creditor groups still needs to be strengthened. The total cost of debt relief to creditors under the HIPC Initiative is currently estimated to be US$76.9 billion, while the costs to the four multilateral creditors providing relief under the MDRI is estimated at US$42.4 billion in end-2015 present value terms.

Can foreign aid motivate institutional reform? An evaluation of the HIPC Initiative

PurposeA number of political economy concerns are associated with the provision of foreign aid to developing economies. These concerns suggest that foreign aid is likely to have harmful effects on a recipient’s institutional quality, and that attempts to give aid conditional on policy and institutional reforms are unlikely to succeed. Established in 1996, the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative is a comprehensive, structured attempt to provide multilateral foreign aid conditional on reforms in recipient countries. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate its effectiveness at affecting institutional reform in participating countries.Design/methodology/approachThe authors document how participating countries fared in terms of the quality of their policies and institutions. The authors employ the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World index as a measure of economic institutions, and the Freedom House political rights (PR) and civil liberties indices as measures of PR and protections. Based on these measures, the authors report unconditional statistics (e.g. average changes) and also regressions of changes in the measures on HIPC Initiative aid allocations and other controls.FindingsThe authors find that most participating countries experienced either meager increases or outright decreases in institutional quality. The regression results provide no evidence that the Initiative affects meaningful reforms.Originality/valueThe potential for foreign aid to have deleterious effects on the institutional quality of recipient countries has been of increasing concern to students of economic development. Such effects can have important implications for entrepreneurial activity in these countries. The HIPC Initiative is specifically designed to acknowledge and, indeed, overcome these concerns, leading to actual increases in institutional quality of recipient countries. To the authors’ knowledge, this work is the first to assess whether the promise of the HIPC Initiative is being fulfilled.

Africa: Out of debt, into fiscal space? Dynamic fiscal impact of the debt relief initiatives on African Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs)

After two debt relief initiatives launched in 1996 (the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, HIPC) and in 1999 (The enhanced HIPC initiative), the G7 decided to go further by cancelling (most of) the remaining multilateral debt for these HIPC countries through the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI, 2005). Building on earlier literature that tries to assess the fiscal response effects of HIPC debt relief, we extend this assessment by explicitly including the fiscal response effects of MDRI debt relief, and by using an extended dataset and alternative econometric techniques, in order to have sufficient hindsight and better tackle methodological issues such as country-specific effects. We confirm earlier findings that debt relief, and especially the enhanced HIPC initiative, has had a positive impact on recipient country total domestic revenue and public investment (as percentage of GDP). Additionally, thanks to our large observation span, we also observe that the MDRI led to a significant increase in current primary expenditures and domestic revenue ratios, although these effects are on average smaller than the HIPC Initiative ones.

Chad: Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative: Completion Point Document And Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative

This paper discusses the status of Chad under Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). Chad does not qualify for topping-up under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative based on end-2013 debt data. Creditors accounting for more than 87 percent of total HIPC-eligible debt have given satisfactory assurances of their participation in the enhanced HIPC Initiative. Nearly all multilateral creditors and Paris Club creditors have agreed to participate. The authorities are working toward obtaining participation of all the remaining creditors. Upon reaching the completion point under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative, Chad will also qualify for additional debt relief under the MDRI.

Reframing the debate: the debt relief initiative and new normative values in the governance of third world debt

AbstractThe introduction of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative in 1996 established landmark legal and policy innovations both in the regulatory landscape of sovereign debt and in the framework of international development finance. As the HIPC framework draws to a close, this paper reviews the impact of this initiative on the regulation of sovereign debt, in particular the governance of third world debt. The paper considers the implications of the initiative's explicit link between debt restructuring and development policy and its incorporation of non-traditional normative values, such as poverty reduction and participatory development, into the legal and political discourse of sovereign debt. The paper argues that while the changes which brought about the HIPC initiative have led to a number of key initiatives to reform the governance of third world debt, they have also had the contradictory effect of reinforcing the core disciplinary discourses and pre-existing practices of the sovereign debt regime.

Does Lower Debt Buy Higher Growth? The Impact of Debt Relief Initiatives on Growth

In 1996, the IMF and the World Bank introduced the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative—a comprehensive debt relief program aimed at reducing the external debt burden of eligible countries to sustainable levels, provided they carry out strong programs of macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms designed to promote growth and reduce poverty. Now that the HIPC Initiative is nearly completed, this paper investigates whether the initiative managed to spur growth, either directly or indirectly through investment. In contrast to earlier studies, we conclude that there is some evidence of positive effects of the HIPC Initiative on growth. Such evidence suggests that the HIPC Initiative and MDRI have helped HIPC-eligible countries to reach higher growth, but it remains unclear whether this is through higher investment or another channel. Also, the analysis illustrates that it is hard to disentangle pure debt-relief effects from other concurrent factors.

Does Lower Debt Buy Higher Growth? The Impact of Debt Relief Initiatives on Growth

In 1996, the IMF and the World Bank introduced the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative—a comprehensive debt relief program aimed at reducing the external debt burden of eligible countries to sustainable levels, provided they carry out strong programs of macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms designed to promote growth and reduce poverty. Now that the HIPC Initiative is nearly completed, this paper investigates whether the initiative managed to spur growth, either directly or indirectly through investment. In contrast to earlier studies, we conclude that there is some evidence of positive effects of the HIPC Initiative on growth. Such evidence suggests that the HIPC Initiative and MDRI have helped HIPC-eligible countries to reach higher growth, but it remains unclear whether this is through higher investment or another channel. Also, the analysis illustrates that it is hard to disentangle pure debt-relief effects from other concurrent factors.

English

Reassessing the rationale underlying the emergence of structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) in the 1980s, this article looks more specifically at the effects of the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative on the debt burden in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using data from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it illustrates how in spite of important degrees of economic growth during the last decade and the promotion of the HIPC initiative since 1996, SSA’s total external debt remains a central dilemma. The annual debt service of many post-completion point HIPCs is even expected to increase until 2013. The development aid received by many countries is still often offset by their debt service payments so that in practice, the net transfer of wealth remains out of most SSA countries. Therefore, the empirical analysis shows a very limited effect of the HIPC initiative on the reduction of external debts. Thus, up to 2012, the persistence of this huge economic burden might contribute to explain why few countries have really progressed towards achieving the millennium development goals (MDGs).   Key words: Heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative, millennium development goals (MDGs), external debt, poverty reduction, sub-Saharan Africa.

Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI)-Status of Implementation and Proposals for the Future of the HIPC Initiative

This report aims to accomplish three objectives: (a) it provides an update on the status of implementation, impact, and costs of the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI); (b) it proposes a modification of the reporting of progress under the initiatives, including the discontinuation of the annual status of implementation reports, and the preparation of periodic reports on debt vulnerabilities in low income countries (LICs), including HIPCs; and (c) it proposes a further ring-fencing of the list of countries eligible or potentially eligible for debt relief under the HIPC Initiative based on end-2010 income and indebtedness criteria.

Impact of HIPC on Poverty Reduction in Ghana (2000-2008)

In 1996, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) launched the Debt Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, which created a framework for all creditors, including multilateral creditors, to provide debt relief to the world's poorest and most heavily indebted countries, and thereby reduce the constraint on economic growth and poverty reduction imposed by the debt build-up in these countries. The HIPC Initiative was designed as one important building block in broader development architecture of policies, programs and institutional development in support of sustainable growth and poverty reduction.This study was designed to establish whether the HIPC funds that were release for poverty reduction indeed helped reduce poverty and at what rate it did. The research an experimental focused on identifying the relationships between growth rate, poverty rate before HIPC releases and after the release. The study showed that poverty rate reduced quiet significantly after the country joined the HIPC initiative and also growth rate. These findings were interpreted and discussed in the context of literature and a number of implications and recommendations were drawn.

Refocusing on the Objectives: A Critique of the U.K.'s Debt Relief (Developing Countries) Act, 2010

Managing unsustainable debt and the crises that have ensued from the sovereign debt of developing countries have not only left the countries enmeshed in excruciating poverty but also threatened the stability of the international financial system. Concerted efforts have been progressively formulated and implemented by the international community to solve the unsustainable debt crisis faced by developing countries. Chief of these efforts are the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief embarked upon by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The HIPC Initiative aim of reducing to sustainable levels the debt of countries classified as heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), while the MDRI was added as a supplement aimed at achieving 100% debt relief for countries completing the HIPC Initiative. One of the phenomena that has been variously and widely blamed as a set-back to the HIPC Initiative and the MDRI is the perceived activities of vulture creditors who are accused of profiteering on the external debt of poor countries by purchasing them at steep discount in the secondary market and suing for the full value of the debt plus all interests and associated fees. Studies by both the World Bank and the IMF, as well as various experts commissioned by major world bodies, indicate that a substantial portion of the monies saved poor countries by the HIPC Initiative and MDRI which should have been channeled to developmental activities – such as infrastructural development, education, food, health, and generally uplifting the living standards of the people – are lost to vulture creditors who trade on the debts of these countries. These studies also indicate that the activities of the vulture creditors also pose serious developmental challenges to developing countries falling outside the HIPC Initiative – particularly those eligible to borrow from the International Development Association’s concessional loan program – and a threat to the stability of the international financial system. In response to the perceived menace of the vulture creditors, major policy and legislative responses have been undertaken by various countries to check their activities. These include the “Stop Vulture Funds” bill (the Bill) pending before the United States’ Congress and the United Kingdom’s “Debt Relief (Developing Countries) Act” (the Act) in force in the U.K. since April 2010. This paper is a critique of the Act. It examines the provisions of the Act in the light of its avowed objectives and the objective of the international community – to curb what has now become known as the “vulture culture”, make debt relief work for the poor and preserve the stability of the international financial system. A brief introduction introduces the problem of debt, debt relief and the vulture culture in developing countries. Later parts of the paper delve into an examination of the salient provisions of the Act in the light of its objectives, necessary comparisons with the Bill, and recommendations for reforms.

Togo: Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative Completion Point Document and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI)

This paper discusses Togo’s progress under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. In November 2008, the Boards of Executive Directors of the IDA and the IMF agreed that Togo had met the requirements for reaching the decision point under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative. This paper assesses Togo’s performance in reaching the completion point under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative and provides an updated debt relief analysis. In the opinion of the IDA and IMF staff, satisfactory progress has been made in implementing the reforms specified for reaching the completion point.