Investigations of heat transfer characteristics in channels with supercritical fluids are crucial for power cycle applications, such as supercritical water-cooled reactors. To ensure the safety of the system, heat transfer deterioration (HTD) should be avoided. The criteria to identify the onset of HTD in heated rod bundles are still not determined. This study summarizes indicators for the onset of HTD in a rod bundle with supercritical water flowing upward based on observations from experimental data. Existing criteria for the tube flow are assessed by comparing predicted critical heat flux (CHF) values with experimentally identified values. Considering effects of different operating parameters, a new criterion for predicting HTD behavior in rod bundles is developed. The results indicate that the new criterion has a better performance than all existing criteria, with a mean average relative deviation of 0.26 %. Predicted CHF values are within ± 20 % of the respective experimentally identified CHF values.