Headwater Region Research Articles

Advancing mechanistic understanding of cohesive sediment transport: Integrating flume experiments, field measurements, and modelling approaches in a gravel-bed river

Gravel-bed rivers draining mountainous forested headwater regions are critically important for drinking water supply and ecological integrity. These rivers, however, have been increasingly impacted by intensifying anthropogenic and natural (especially climate change exacerbated) landscape disturbances that commonly increase hillslope/channel connectivity and the delivery of cohesive sediment (<63 μm) and associated pollutants. Despite the known deleterious threats of excess cohesive sediments, there is still limited understanding of their transport and intra-gravel storage due to the complexities of such processes. Accordingly, the objectives of this study were to: i) calibrate and validate a semi-empirical cohesive sediment transport model (RIVFLOC) using the observations from flume experiments; ii) estimate the intra-gravel storage capacity for cohesive sediment with the calibrated model based on the field dataset (collected in two field campaigns between 2019 and 2021), and; iii) investigate mechanisms of cohesive sediment transport dynamics in this gravel-bed river, identifying knowledge gaps and areas for future research. Our results showed that despite the increased floc settling velocity, deposition was hindered by turbulent flow fields. The model predicted that ~60 % of upstream cohesive sediment would ingress within the 10 km study reach due to the flow interaction with the gravel-bed. Despite the agreement between flume and field observations on ingress rates and preferential ingress of coarser (~100 μm) flocs, notable differences were observed between modelled and field datasets, highlighting unknowns regarding cohesive sediment exfiltration without framework mobilization. This study uniquely integrates field measurements, flume experiments, and modelling strategies to evaluate the transport and fate of cohesive sediment in a gravel-bed river. Accordingly, our findings advance current knowledge on the mechanistic understanding of cohesive sediment transport and highlight future research directions.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Grassland Species Diversity and Their Driving Factors in the Three Rivers Headwater Region of China from 2000 to 2021

Biodiversity loss will lead to a serious decline for ecosystem services, which will ultimately affect human well-being and survival. Monitoring the spatial and temporal dynamics of grassland biodiversity is essential for its conservation and sustainable development. This study integrated ground monitoring data, Landsat remote sensing, and environmental variables in the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) from 2000 to 2021. We established a reliable model for estimating grassland species diversity, analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns, trends of change, and the driving factors of changes in grassland species diversity over the past 22 years. Among models based on diverse variable selection and machine learning methods, the random forest (RF) combined stepwise regression (STEP) model was found to be the optimal model for estimating grassland species diversity in this study, which had an R2 of 0.44 and an RMSE of 2.56 n/m2 on the test set. The spatial distribution of species diversity showed a pattern of abundance in the southeast and scarcity in the northwest. Trend analysis revealed that species diversity was increasing in 80.46% of the area, whereas 16.59% of the area exhibited a decreasing trend. The analysis of driving factors indicated that the changes in species diversity were driven by both climate change and human activities over the past 22 years in the study area, of which temperature was the most significant driving factor. This study effectively monitors grassland species diversity on a large scale, thereby supporting biodiversity monitoring and grassland resource management.

Effect of calculation unit division in distributed hydrological models on the analysis of hydrological effects of land use change

Numerous papers have utilized distributed hydrological models to assess the hydrological effects of land use changes. However, can these models reflect actual land use changes? This study focuses on the effect of calculation unit division in distributed hydrological models on the analysis of hydrological effects of land use change. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is tested here, using the Dongjiang headwater region in southern China as the study area. Thirteen calculation unit division schemes are developed to analyze the effects of land use generalization caused by calculation unit division on runoff and sediment load simulations by SWAT. Two indices, including Land Use Identification Accuracy (LUIA) and Land Use Change Identification Accuracy (LUCIA) are employed to quantify the model’s precision in describing land use and changes under various scenarios. In addition, this study examines how differences in land use descriptions, resulting from calculation unit division, influence the hydrological effect of land use changes in the SWAT model. The findings indicate that: (1) Calculation unit division leads to the generalization of land uses identified by the SWAT model. As the sub-watershed Drainage Area Threshold (DAT) increases, the small land use types tend to aggregate into the larger land use types. (2) Land use generalization, resulting from calculation unit division, significantly affects runoff and sediment load simulations. An increase in DAT induces a significant rise in simulated runoff and sediment load (P<0.001). (3) Calculation unit division substantially impacts the model’s description of land use. LUIA and LUCIA show a significant downward trend as DAT increases. (4) Calculation unit division significantly alters the analysis results of hydrological effects of land use changes. Different calculation unit division schemes yield different analysis results of hydrological effects of land use changes. These results demonstrate that the division of calculation units in the SWAT model leads to land use generalization, which impacts the model’s description of land use changes and subsequently affects the assessment of the hydrological effects of land use changes. The research results imply that when analyzing the hydrological effects of land use change, a more refined calculation unit division scheme should be adopted as far as possible to improve the accuracy of model’s description of land use change and reduce the uncertainty of model simulation results.

An Assessment of Vegetation Changes in the Three-River Headwaters Region, China: Integrating NDVI and Its Spatial Heterogeneity

Assessing vegetation changes in alpine arid and fragile ecosystems is imperative for informed ecological restoration initiatives and adaptive ecosystem management. Previous studies primarily employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to reveal vegetation dynamics, ignoring the spatial heterogeneity alterations caused by bare soil. In this study, we used a comprehensive analysis of NDVI and its spatial heterogeneity to examine the vegetation changes across the Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) over the past two decades. A random forest model was used to elucidate the underlying causes of these changes. We found that between 2000 and 2022, 9.4% of the regions exhibited significant changes in both NDVI and its spatial heterogeneity. These regions were categorized into six distinct types of vegetation change: improving conditions (62.1%), regrowing conditions (11.0%), slight degradation (16.2%), medium degradation (8.4%), severe degradation (2.0%), and desertification (0.3%). In comparison with steppe regions, meadows showed a greater proportion of improved conditions and medium degradation, whereas steppes had more instances of regrowth and slight degradation. Climate variables are the dominant factors that caused vegetation changes, with contributions to NDVI and spatial heterogeneity reaching 68.9% and 73.2%, respectively. Temperature is the primary driver of vegetation dynamics across the different types of change, with a more pronounced impact in meadows. In severely degraded steppe and meadow regions, grazing intensity emerged as the predominant driver of NDVI change, with an importance value exceeding 0.50. Notably, as degradation progressed from slight to severe, the significance of this factor correspondingly increased. Our findings can provide effective information for guiding the implementation of ecological restoration projects and the sustainable management of alpine arid ecosystems.

An Evaluation of the Sediment Reduction Benefits of Soil and Water Conservation Measures under Extreme Rainfall Conditions in the Loess Plateau in China Based on a Distributed Soil Erosion Model

Since the 1970s, comprehensive control measures on soil erosion in the headwater region of the Loess Plateau have been carried out. Quantitative evaluation of the benefits of soil and water conservation measures during extreme rainstorms is of great significance for the comprehensive management of the catchments. In this study, a systematic modeling methodology for evaluating the effects of soil and water conservation measures on sediment reduction was developed based on a distributed soil erosion model (DSEM). Taking the Chabagou basin in the Loess Plateau as the study area, the tested DSEM was used to simulate soil erosion and sediment yield during an extreme rainstorm under two scenarios, the uncontrolled condition and the controlled condition with soil and water conservation measures implemented. The results showed that DSEM could successfully simulate soil and water losses and evaluate the effects of soil and water conservation measures during extreme storm events. The evaluated results showed that each soil and water conservation measure had the specific function of sediment reduction. And under rainstorm conditions, the effect of engineering measures on sediment reduction was greater than that of forest and grass measures.

Development and Application of an Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) for Identifying Priority Restoration Areas in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

The environmental vulnerability diagnosis of a river basin depends on a holistic analysis of its environmental aspects and degradation factors. Based on this diagnosis, the definition of priority areas where interventions for environmental recovery should be carried out is fundamental, since financial and natural resources are limited. In this study, we developed a methodology to assess these fragilities using an environmental vulnerability index (EVI) that combines physical and environmental indicators related to the natural sensitivity of ecosystems and their exposure to anthropogenic factors. The developed EVI was applied to the headwater region of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB), Brazil. The proposed index was based on the AHP multicriteria analysis and was adapted to include four variables representative of the study area: Land Use Adequacy, Burned Area, Erosion Susceptibility, and quantitative water balance. The EVI analysis highlighted that the presence of easily erodible soils, associated with sloping areas and land use above their capacity, generate the most vulnerable areas in the headwaters of the SFRB. The highest EVI values are primarily linked to regions with shallow, easily erodible soils like Leptosols and Cambisols, found in steep areas predominantly used for pasture. In the SFBR, the greatest vulnerability was observed within a 5 km buffer around conservation units, covering approximately 32.4% of the total area. The results of this study indicate where resources should be applied for environmental preservation in the basin under study, directing the allocation of efforts to areas with lower resilience to maintain ecosystem services.

Effect of permafrost degradation on grassland net primary productivity in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Abstract Climate warming poses complex challenges for alpine ecosystems on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), further exacerbated by permafrost degradation. Quantifying the specific ecological impacts of permafrost thaw remains elusive, as ecological variations are also influenced by external climate factors. This study tackles this gap by employing the Noah-MP model to simultaneously simulate permafrost thermal–hydrological dynamics and net primary production (NPP) across the Three River Headwaters Region from 1989 to 2018. Model results were validated against observations. To isolate the ecological effects of permafrost thaw, we implemented a novel relative time transformation on the simulation results. Our analysis reveals a 7.5 × 104 km2 reduction in permafrost coverage during the study period, coinciding with a 1.09 g C m−2 yr−2 increase in NPP. While precipitation is the primary driver of NPP changes in most years, soil moisture emerges as a crucial factor during permafrost disappearance, when the ground transitions to seasonally frozen ground. Surprisingly, the NPP response to permafrost disappearance exhibited a transient effect, diminishing to negligible levels within five years post-thaw. These findings enhance our understanding of the intricate and dynamic responses of the QTP ecosystem to permafrost degradation under a warming climate.

Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Plant Community and the Identification of Driving Factors in Riparian Zone of the Three-River Headwaters Region, China

The unique geographical and climatic conditions in the Three-River Headwaters Region gave birth to distinctive plant species and vegetation types. To reveal the spatial distribution of plant communities and soil habitats along the riparian zone of the Sanjiangyuan Region and their influencing mechanisms, 14 survey plots were set up （ten from the Yangtze River source, two from the Lancang River source, and two from the Yellow River source）, and the effects of soil nutrient characteristics （especially soil phosphorus morphology）, climate factors, and river topography on plant community characteristics were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the plant community composition in the riparian zone of the source of the three rivers was dominated by perennial herbs （72.2%）, followed by annual herbs （20.4%） and shrubs （7.4%）. The dominant plants were Stipa purpurea, Polygonum orbiculatum, Carex parvula, Potentilla anserina, and Gentiana straminea. The average plant coverage, Shannon-Wiener index, and Pielou index were （64.4% ±23.6%）, （1.31 ±0.42）, and （0.84 ±0.08）, respectively. The plant community diversity index was the highest in the Yangtze River source, followed by that in the Lancang River source, and the lowest in the Yellow River source. The soil pH of the riparian zone of the Yangtze River source was significantly higher than that of the Lancang River source, whereas the mean contents of organic matter, total nitrogen, and Fe-Al combined phosphorus were significantly lower than those of the Lancang River source. The calcium and magnesium-combined phosphorus was the main form of phosphorus in riparian soil （63.89%）. Temperature, soil organic phosphorus content, and pH had significant effects on plant composition in the riparian zone of the Three-River Headwaters Region, whereas soil calcium and magnesium-combined phosphorus content had significant effects on plant community diversities. These results may deepen the scientific understanding of the evolution trend and genetic mechanism of plant communities in the riparian zone of the Three-River Headwaters Region.

Amazonian rivers are leaky barriers to gene flow in forest understory birds.

Ever since Alfred Russel Wallace's nineteenth-century observation that related terrestrial species are often separated on opposing riverbanks, major Amazonian rivers have been recognized as key drivers of speciation. However, rivers are dynamic entities whose widths and courses may vary through time. It thus remains unknown how effective rivers are at reducing gene flow and promoting speciation over long timescales. We fit demographic models to genomic sequences to reconstruct the history of gene flow in three pairs of avian taxa fully separated by different Amazonian rivers, and whose geographic ranges do not make contact in headwater regions where rivers may cease to be barriers. Models with gene flow were best fit but still supported an initial period without any gene flow, which ranged from 187 000 to over 959 000 years, suggesting that rivers are capable of initiating speciation through long stretches of allopatric divergence. Allopatry was followed by either bursts or prolonged episodes of gene flow that retarded genomic differentiation but did not fully homogenize populations. Our results support Amazonian rivers as key barriers that promoted speciation and the build-up of species richness, but they also suggest that river barriers are often leaky, with genomic divergence accumulating slowly owing to episodes of substantial gene flow.

A comprehensive evaluation of soil quality in the Three River Headwaters Region, China

Soil quality in the Three River Headwaters Region (TRHR) has a direct connection with the vegetation restoration and ecosystem health of the whole region, however, the evaluation of soil quality on a regional scale is still lacking. We analyzed the distribution pattern of the regional soil quality index (SQI), explored the dominant factors affecting SQI, and proposed measures to improve soil quality based on 638 soil samples collected at surface soil and subsurface soil. The results showed that in the TRHR, the SQI was higher in the southeast, and lower in the northwest. The average SQI were 0.52 for surface soil and 0.50 for subsurface soil, indicating better soil quality in the surface soil. Among different vegetation types within the TRHR, the SQI was ranked as follows: the alpine shrub (0.52–0.55) > the alpine meadow (0.51–0.52) > the alpine steppe (0.44–0.45). The study explored that NDVI was the dominant factor driving SQI, with geographical and climatic factors indirectly affected it through vegetation. This study proposes the corresponding strategies based on the distribution of SQI in different vegetation types and its main driving factor for the better development of soil quality in the TRHR, and it can provide practical guidance for remediating degraded soil, restoring degraded vegetation, and alleviating the impact of climate change.

Beyond grassland degradation: Pathways to resilience for pastoralist households in alpine grassland ecosystems

Sustaining the development of rural and pastoral communities' hinges on livelihood resilience. Pastoralist household resilience relies on resource availability and decision-making abilities. Despite extensive studies on pastoralist livelihoods, a significant knowledge gap remains in understanding the nuanced adaptive capacities of diverse households, particularly amid grassland degradation. Thus, this study investigates the household-based livelihood resilience of pastoralists in China's Three-River Headwater Region, offering policy recommendations for resilient livelihoods. Using stratified random sampling, 758 pastoralist household heads underwent semi-structured interviews to collect data. Five household characteristics, encompassing age, gender, energy use, well-being perception, and multi-household grazing participation, were evaluated. Looking ot the nature of data, descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests were performed in this study to draw the valid inferences. The results revealed a positive correlation (p < 0.05) between household head age and livelihood resilience, with divergent resilience across age groups. Varied energy usage yielded distinct impacts; households employing solar or mixed energy sources exhibited heightened resilience (p < 0.05). Household well-being emerged as an invariant variable concerning resilience. Furthermore, engagement in multi-household grazing (an informal institution) significantly (p < 0.05) influenced pastoralist livelihood resilience. These insights advocate targeted support for young household heads and the adoption of clean energy. Exploring the deeper strategies and mechanisms of multi-household grazing can enhance understanding and policy integration, guiding eco-friendly progress within rustic landscapes for pastoral communities.

Ecosystem Resilience Trends and Its Influencing Factors in China’s Three-River Headwater Region: A Comprehensive Analysis Using CSD Indicators (1982–2023)

Ecosystem resilience, the ability of an ecosystem to recover from disturbances, is a critical indicator of environmental health and stability, particularly under the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic pressures. This study focuses on the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR), a critical ecological area for East and Southeast Asia, often referred to as the “Water Tower of China”. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy for vegetation growth and productivity and calculated Critical Slowing Down (CSD) indicators to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland ecosystem resilience in the TRHR from 1984 to 2021. Our research revealed a sustained improvement in ecosystem resilience in the TRHR starting in the late 1990s, with a reversal in this trend observed after 2011. Spatially, ecosystem resilience was higher in areas with greater precipitation and higher vegetation productivity. Temporally, changes in grazing intensity were most strongly correlated with resilience dynamics, with explanatory power far exceeding that of NDVI, temperature, and precipitation. Our study underscores the importance of incorporating ecosystem resilience into assessments of ecosystem function changes and the effectiveness of ecological conservation measures, providing valuable insights for similar research in other regions of the world.

Understanding the Dry-to-Wet Transition of Summer Precipitation over the Three-Rivers Headwater Region: Atmospheric Circulation Mechanisms

Summer precipitation has changed over the Three-Rivers Headwater (TRH) region, which may have an impact on droughts and floods in Asia. This study examines the notable interdecadal variation from dry to wet conditions in summer (June to August) precipitation over the TRH region during the period of 1979–2020. The changes could have been influenced by atmospheric circulations. This study aims to improve our understanding of the interdecadal variation in summer precipitation over the TRH region. Our findings reveal that a zonally oriented teleconnection wave train is generated across the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes, originating from the North Atlantic and propagating to northern East Asia along the westerly jet. This results in a weakened and northward-shifted westerly jet. Additionally, anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the northern Tibetan Plateau contribute to easterly water-vapor transport anomalies in the region, reducing water-vapor export at the eastern boundary. Concurrently, an anomalous cyclone over the Arabian Sea and an anomalous anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal enhance the influx of oceanic water vapor into the TRH region. The enhanced Walker circulation further augments the equatorial easterly, which in turn strengthens the anomalous anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal. Consequently, these atmospheric changes contribute to the increased summer precipitation over the TRH region, elucidating the mechanisms behind the observed dry-to-wet transition.

Delineation of Intermittent Rivers and Ephemeral Streams Using a Hybrid Method

Intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams are crucial for the water cycle and ecosystem services, yet they are often neglected by managers and researchers, especially in headwater areas. This oversight has caused a lack of comprehensive basemaps for these vital river systems. In headwater regions, water bodies are typically sparse and disconnected, with narrow and less distinct channels. Therefore, we propose a novel hybrid method that integrates topographic data and remote sensing imagery to delineate river networks. Our method reestablishes connectivity among sparsely distributed water bodies through topographic pairs, enhances less distinct channel features using the gamma function, and converts topographic and water indices data into a weighted graph to determine optimal channels with the A* algorithm. The topographic and water indices data are derived from the Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain DEM (MERIT DEM) and an average composite of the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), respectively. In the upper Lancang-Mekong River basin, our method outperformed five publicly available DEM datasets, achieving over 91% positional accuracy within a 30 m buffer. This hybrid method enhances positional accuracy and effectively connects sparse water bodies in headwater areas, offering promising applications for delineating intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams and providing baseline information for these river systems.

Mechanisms of Suprapermafrost Groundwater Recharge Streamflow in Alpine Permafrost Regions: Insights From Young Water Fraction Analysis

AbstractThis study investigates the temporal processes of suprapermafrost groundwater (SPG)‐supplied streamflow in alpine permafrost regions, aiming to fill the gap in understanding this process from a water‐age perspective. Precipitation, streamflow, and SPG samples were collected from the Three‐Rivers Headwaters Region (TRHR). We defined the physical meaning of Fyw (the young water fraction) of the SPG and calculated it for the first time. The results showed that in the TRHR, the SPG mean travel time (MTT) was 159 days, and approximately 46.4% of SPG was younger than 77 days, whereas the streamflow MTT was 342 days, and approximately 12.2% of the streamflow was younger than 97 days. The correlation analysis revealed that various climatic factors played dominant roles in the recharge time variations of the SPG‐supplied streamflow within the TRHR. The SPG recharge rate did not significantly affect the streamflow Fyw; however, the thickness of the active layer ultimately controlled the SPG transit time distribution. Regression analysis further demonstrated the nonlinear impact of precipitation, average temperature, and average freezing days on SPG Fyw, which is closely related to seasonal freeze–thaw heat conduction and groundwater heat advection in the active layer. During the initial ablation period, the streamflow was primarily recharged by young SPG, resulting in a short‐tail travel time distribution. Our findings provide valuable insights into runoff generation and concentration processes in permafrost regions and have important implications for water resource management.

Temporal and spatial evolution of net primary productivity in the Three-River Headwaters Region under phenological changes and anthropogenic influence.

Understanding the spatiotemporal changes in net primary productivity (NPP) and the driving factors behind these changes in climate-vulnerable regions is crucial for ecological conservation. This study simulates the actual NPP (NPPA) and climate potential NPP (NPPC) in the Three-River Headwaters Region from 2000 to 2020. The Theil-Sen Median method and Mann-Kendall mutation analyses are employed to explore their spatiotemporal variation patterns, while geographic weighted regression and machine learning are used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities and climatic factors on NPPA, the results indicate that the average NPPA across the entire region over multiple years is 382.506 , which is 0.132 times the average annual NPPC over the past 21years, showing an overall distribution pattern of low in the northwest and high in the southeast. The annual increase in NPPA from 2000 to 2020 is approximately 1.034 . The source region of the Yangtze River shows the largest improvement in vegetation, with 74.1% of the area showing improvement. Between 2002 and 2003, the annual NPPA in the Three-River Headwaters Region experienced a sudden change, lagging behind the NPPC change by 1year, and after 2005, the upward trend in NPPA became more pronounced. The impact of anthropogenic activities on NPPA shifted from positive to negative to positive from 2000 to 2020, with significant impact areas mainly concentrated in the northeast and a few areas in the central and southern parts. The proportion of areas with extremely significant impact increased from 1.9% in 2000 to 3.7% in 2020. Over the past 21years, the main factors influencing NPPA changes in the Three-River Headwaters Region have been soil moisture and precipitation, with the influence of different climate factors on NPP changing over time. Additionally, NPP is more sensitive to changes in altitude in low-altitude areas. This study can provide more accurate theoretical support for ecological environment assessment and subsequent protection efforts in the Three-River Headwaters Region.

A dataset of vegetation net primary productivity at 250-meter spatial resolution in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2018

Net primary productivity (NPP) is a fundamental indicator quantifying photosynthetic production in ecology. With the development of ecosystem process simulation and satellite remote sensing technology, NPP is widely applied to exploring long-term spatiotemporal dynamics and underlying mechanism in terrestrial ecosystems with high spatial heterogeneity. Using the remote sensing ecological process coupling model GLOPEM-CEVSA and incorporating meteorological data interpolated from 2000 to 2018 the remote sensing-based vegetation photosynthetically active radiation absorption (FPAR) data, we obtained a dataset of vegetation net primary productivity at 250-meter spatial resolution for the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2018. The dataset was made accessible to the public through the National Data Center for Ecological Sciences. The data sharing is expected to provide reliable scientific data to support for the study of spatial and temporal changes and the decision making related to sustainable development in the region.

A dataset of surface evapotranspiration in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province based on Bayesian model averaging from 2003 to 2015

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important in the exchange of water, carbon and energy on land. The ET estimates based on different models and remote sensing data have different degrees of uncertainty. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a way to reduce the uncertainty. Based on water and heat flux observation data in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China, evapotranspiration simulated by ARTS and PT-JPL models, and internationally shared MOD16 and SSEBop remote sensing evapotranspiration products, we conducted a BMA integration study, resulting in a dataset of surface evapotranspiration in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province based on Bayesian model averaging from 2003 to 2015. By verifying the results of each input model and BMA integrated model, it is found that the correlation between ET based on BMA and flux observation data is 0.94, which can explain 89% of the seasonal variation data, outperforming the performance of a single model. The results show that BMA model integration can integrate the inherent advantages of different models and reduce the uncertainty of result estimation for more reliable estimation results. This dataset can provide more accurate data for studying hydrothermal changes and evaluating ecosystem regulation functions in the Three-River Headwaters Region.

Impacts of hydrometeorological regime shifts on drought Propagation: The meteorological to hydrological perspective

Exploring drought propagation relationships and thresholds is crucial for drought control and mitigation. However, previous studies have overlooked the impacts of regime shifts in trends of hydrometeorological variables over time on drought propagation and its thresholds. This study proposes an integrated framework focusing on drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought. The regime shift periods, both increasing and decreasing trends, were identified using the cumulative difference curve-rank test on precipitation and streamflow at an annual time scale. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were used as meteorological and hydrological drought indices, respectively. Additionally, the propagation relationships and thresholds from meteorological drought to hydrological drought were identified and compared across various regime shift periods. The integrated framework’s applicability was verified by applying it to the Three-Rivers Headwaters region of China, which encompasses the Yellow River, Yangtze River, and Lancang River. This region is strategically important for China and has relatively little human activity. The framework revealed the variability in drought propagation and thresholds during different regime shift periods. The response sensitivity of SSI to SPI and the probabilities and thresholds for propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought differed between periods of increasing and decreasing trends in hydrometeorological variables. When regime shift characteristics were considered, the thresholds for meteorological drought propagating to hydrological drought were 2.81 %–16.90 % higher. These results indicated that, when examining drought propagation relationships and thresholds, accounting for regime shifts in hydrometeorological variables can improve early drought warning and enhance drought control and mitigation efforts.

Bare Patches Created by Plateau Pikas Contribute to Warming Permafrost on the Tibet Plateau

AbstractPlateau pikas, small mammals native to the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP), create bare patches through burrowing. No previous assessment exists on their impact on permafrost. This study fills this gap by simulating hypothetical scenarios in the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of the QTP using the Noah‐MP model for the plant growing seasons during 2015–2018. Our findings reveal a significant increase in soil temperature in the active layer due to pika‐induced bare patches, particularly during July–August. The average temperature rise at 2.5 cm depth was 0.36°C in permafrost regions and 0.29°C in seasonally frozen ground regions during August. Minimal impact on unfrozen water content was observed, with a slight increase in deep soil layers in permafrost regions, and negligible in seasonally frozen areas. These findings underscore the previously unexplored influence of pika burrowing on permafrost temperature, suggesting a potential risk of accelerating permafrost degradation, especially in permafrost‐dominated regions.