Hazard Mitigation Planning Research Articles

Integrating climate change into state hazard mitigation plans: A five-year follow-up survey of state hazard mitigation officers

Integrating climate change into state hazard mitigation plans: A five-year follow-up survey of state hazard mitigation officers

A Remote-Sensing-Based Method Using Rockfall Inventories for Hazard Mapping at the Community Scale in the Arequipa Region of Peru

Small communities in the Arequipa region of Peru are susceptible to rockfall hazards, which impact their lives and livelihoods. To mitigate rockfall hazards, it is first necessary to understand their locations and characteristics, which can be compiled into an inventory used in the creation of rockfall hazard rating maps. However, the only rockfall inventory available for Arequipa contains limited data of large, discrete events, which is insufficient for characterizing rockfall hazards at the community scale. A more comprehensive inventory would result in a more accurate rockfall hazard rating map—a significant resource for hazard mitigation and development planning. This study addresses this need through a remote method for rockfall hazard characterization at a community scale. Three communities located in geographically diverse areas of Arequipa were chosen for hazard inventory and characterization, with a fourth being used for validation of the method. Rockfall inventories of source zones and rockfall locations were developed using high-resolution aerial imagery, followed by field confirmation, and then predictions of runout distances using empirical models. These models closely matched the actual runout distance distribution, with all three sites having an R2 value of 0.98 or above. A semi-automated method using a GIS-based model was developed that characterizes the generation and transport of rockfall. The generation component criteria consisted of source zone height, slope angle, and rockmass structural condition. Transport was characterized by rockfall runout distance, estimated rockfall trajectory paths, and hazard ratings of corresponding source zones. The representative runout distance inventory model of the validation site matched that of a nearby site with an R2 of 0.98, despite inventorying less than a third of the number of rockfalls. This methodology improves upon current approaches and could be tested in other regions with similar climatic and geomorphic settings. These maps and methodology could be used by local and regional government agencies to warn residents of rockfall hazards, inform zoning regulations, and prioritize mitigation efforts.

Strategic hazard mitigation planning

A multitude of studies have emerged in recent years that examined the quality of hazard mitigation plans. This study adds to the existing body of research by examining the quality of mitigation strategies, associated mitigation actions, and adherence to strategic planning principles. The study reviewed 64 local Louisiana hazard mitigation plans producing a dataset of 7729 proposed mitigation actions. Mitigation actions were assigned one or more FEMA project codes as well as one of six government powers. Comparative statistics revealed that coastal and inland parishes do not propose distinctly different mitigation plans despite differences in local risk and vulnerability profiles. While plans contained highly similar types of proposed mitigation actions, the majority of proposed mitigation actions consisted of building and infrastructure projects. Furthermore, hazard mitigation plans were largely aspirational in nature and lacked a true strategic roadmap for future risk reduction.

Improving the Quality of Climate Change Adaptation Planning Through State Mandate: The Case of California

Problem, research strategy, and findings As communities everywhere experience accelerating climate change impacts, local governments must proactively plan and implement adaptation or resilience strategies. A significant challenge is effectively scaling up these efforts in diverse communities. In 2015, the State of California passed Senate Bill 379 (SB379), requiring climate change adaptation and resilience strategies in local plans, making it the first U.S. state to broadly mandate such requirements locally. Our study measured the effects of SB379 on the quality of local plans that address climate change adaptation or resilience and assessed which types of plans jurisdictions selected to meet the requirements. Using a longitudinal study, we analyzed plan quality before and after SB379 took effect using criteria developed for earlier studies of voluntary climate adaptation plans. We found that California plans have significantly improved when assessed against theoretical criteria, and most jurisdictions have chosen their local hazard mitigation plans to meet the requirements. The flexible and cooperative design of the mandate and its loose enforcement suggest local jurisdictions are willing to address climate change, even when challenged with more stringent requirements if incentives align. As a natural policy experiment, California’s experience offers a unique opportunity to examine the effects of a state planning mandate and the choices local jurisdictions make to comply. Takeaway for practice Cooperative mandates that require local governments to address climate change adaptation and resilience in their plans but offer flexibility in how they do so may improve the quality of plans. Practitioners should seek to leverage flexibility in such mandates to the advantage of their local communities.

UAV based comprehensive modelling approach for flood hazard assessment and mitigation planning

The assessment of flood hazard in semi-arid region under the scare data situation is a challenging task under the changing climatic situation. Therefore, the present research is carry out for Rel river catchment, Gujrat, India as case study and presented the comprehensive approach to identify the possible flood extend and flood mitigation measures for better flood assessment. The UAV based high resolution (3.6 cm × 3.6 cm) DEM is generated for most flood vulnerable area (i.e. Dhanera city), whereas scare precipitation data under ungauged condition is generated using GEE and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) system. The HEC-HMS based hydrologic model is utilized for simulation of stream flow under the observed data, however, the 2D HEC-RAS based open-source model is used for flood assessment in 2D under extreme flood, dam break and levees condition. The flood decision making maps i.e water surface elevation, flood inundation, flood arrival time, and flood velocity are prepared for flood event 2017. The six flood hazard classes were selected from H1 (Low) to H6 (High) categories. The hazard maps of flood for different scenario i.e., 2D hydrodynamic analysis, 2D dam breach, 2D analysis with extended levees, and Dam break analysis with extended levees are derived. The model was validated with observed river gauge (water level) and discharge data at Dhanera City of flood 2017. The developed UAV based comprehensive modelling approach for flood hazard and mitigation planning provides the systematic approach for flood hazard assessment and would be adopted as a system framework for flood risk assessment for any similar case worldwide.

Leveraging technology in emergency management: An opportunity to improve compounding and cascading hazards linked to climate change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report concluded that we will see an increase in frequency of extreme environmental events around the world including, hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires.1 The report further describes cascading hazards when one hazard triggers another in a series such as extreme heat triggering a collapse of the power grid. The IPCC also discusses compounding hazards as multiple disasters occur at the same time for example a hurricane occurring at the same time as COVID-19 and a mass casualty event prompting a Urban Search & Rescue (USAR) response such as the Surfside and the Florida condo collapse.2 Studies suggest that there are gaps relating to Hazard Mitigation Plans (HMP) in addressing cascading events.3,4

Heat Mitigation in the Southeastern United States: Are Cooling Centers Equitable and Strategic?

abstract: In the face of anthropogenic climate change, the ability of communities to reduce the heat-health burden remains a significant public health issue. This research is the first to identify cooling centers across the southeastern United States, providing a resource for stakeholders. The study evaluates the spatial relationship of these venues for heat-vulnerable populations. Using a survey and publicly available data, researchers identified 1,433 cooling centers, though significant variability exists across states and local jurisdictions. Of the nine states examined, Tennessee was the only location with a health system–supported cooling center network. Only 36 percent of the Southeast's population lives within a fifteen-minute drive of a cooling center. In most states, less than 10 percent of vulnerable populations (elderly, non-white, below poverty) are within this driveshed. Most cooling centers were found in urban environments, although heat vulnerability is not exclusively a city issue. Further research is needed to strengthen cross-agency collaboration and evaluate the effectiveness of cooling centers in areas of both high and low population density. Some states have integrated heat as part of hazard mitigation plans, but additional research is needed to explore how these plans go beyond hazard identification and strengthen vulnerable communities' ability to mitigate heat risk.

Evaluating the Quality of State Hazard Mitigation Plans Based on Hazard Identification, Risk, and Vulnerability Assessments

Abstract U.S. State Hazard Mitigation Plans (SHMPs) identify hazards, locate jurisdictional vulnerabilities and risks, and prioritize state hazard mitigation actions. As environmental hazards become more prevalent and costlier due to climate change, these mitigation plans and activities serve as critical decision-making tools for disaster risk reduction. This investigation systematically evaluates all fifty SHMPs on Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) quality. This assessment of HIRA quality examines three elements: (1) adherence to FEMA HIRA requirements; (2) incorporation of social vulnerability analysis; and (3) risk assessment methodology. The evaluation considers the new FEMA requirements and additional best practices to illustrate necessary improvements as states undergo revisions for their next SHMP update. Results find that most states meet a majority of FEMA’s plan requirements. Still, only twenty-seven SHMPs examine either social vulnerability or hazard risk at the sub-state level, and only seven states consider both. Ignoring sub-state variability in vulnerability and hazard risk can lead to misunderstanding true hazard risk at the local level, inequitable mitigation planning, and higher rates of future loss among underserved populations. Plans that employ a quantitative risk scoring methodology score higher on average, serving as best practice examples for SHMP improvement.

Emergency management short term response to extreme heat in the 25 most populated U.S. cities

BackgroundExtreme heat events are a leading weather-related killer in the United States and are predicted to increase in frequency, duration, and intensity. Emergency managers lead short-term response to heat events as well as other natural and man-made hazards with discretion to develop criteria to activate heat responses, such as opening cooling centers and increasing surveillance activities. We aim to describe and summarize emergency management plans for short-term response to extreme heat events across the U.S. MethodsInformation on hazard mitigation plans (HMP) and heat response plans (HRP) in the 25 most populated cities in the US were collected from the National Science Foundation's Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure DesignSafe Data Depot; interviews with emergency managers; and Freedom of Information Act requests. Obtained responses and policy documents were analyzed to answer the following questions developed in consultation with the National Weather Service (NWS), Weather Program Office: 1. How many locations have developed an HRP? 2. What are the emergency management heat response activation thresholds and metrics for emergency response? 3. Do thresholds change with cascading hazards? 4. Are heat vulnerability indexes (HVI) and/or social vulnerability indexes (SVI) included, and 5. Are health outcomes considered in the development of thresholds? Results1. There is no statistical difference in the prevalence of HRPs across geographic regions in the U.S. 2. Initial response thresholds vary greatly across locations from an ambient temperature of 80–85F (26–29 C) to a Heat Index of 108F (42 C). Eighty-eight (22 of 25) percent of locations are using the NWS Heat Index and twelve percent (3 of 25) are using the experimental HeatRisk Product. 3. Sixty-Eight (17 of 25) percent of cities consider cascading hazards, such as a power grid outage, in their HMP or HRP. None of the cities, however, lower response thresholds, as explicitly written in the plans, during these events. 4. Forty percent (10 of 25) of municipalities have an HVI or SVI included or addressed in their plans, & 5. Three of the cities (New York, Phoenix, & Boston) have adapted response thresholds based on local epidemiological studies DiscussionThere is little consistency in the advisory, warning, and watch criteria thresholds across cities which may be a source of confusion to the public. If such criteria are to be tailored to each geographic location, local epidemiological studies and vulnerabilities should help inform the criteria.

Headwinds in the heartland? Hazard planning lessons from six inland jurisdictions in the southern plains

The recent 20th anniversary of the adoption of the United States’ Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA) offers an occasion to reflect on the performance of the intergovernmental policy framework it created to incentivize local hazard mitigation planning. Researchers know little about the status of local hazard mitigation planning in oft-overlooked inland communities and they know little about high-quality mitigation planning in the middle of the country. This study helps fill these gaps with a multistate, six-county comparative case study approach in the Southern Plains using data collected from the evaluation of plan documents and interviews with key informants. Our three core findings are: (1) the hazard mitigation plans tend to be of low to mediocre quality; (2) the networks of hazard mitigation stakeholders vary widely in composition and leadership, some replicating emergency management networks suited to preparedness and response and some much better suited to the quite different demands of long-term mitigation work; and (3) the types of consultants and their roles also varied across the six cases, bringing expertise characteristic of narrow emergency management perspectives to more integrated expertise in long-range land use and infrastructure planning perspectives. Without the requirements of the DMA, it is difficult to imagine that thousands of communities would have dedicated millions of dollars and untold hours to develop mitigation plans. Yet, as our findings show, the DMA is likely in need of a major overhaul, in spite of recent efforts like the new Federal Emergency Management Agency Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program.

Thematic tactile maps for accessible flood mitigation planning: design and evaluation

ABSTRACT Maps are frequently employed in the natural hazard mitigation planning (NHMP) process for analyze a community’s vulnerability to hazards and illustrating the character of potential hazards. But because the encoded information of these maps relies on visual access, blind or low-vision (B/LV) people who want to contribute to their community’s NHMP efforts are therefore effectively excluded from any stage of the process involving maps. In response, we investigate tactile flood maps as an accessible tool for NHMP. Our study proposes a workflow for creating thematic tactile flood maps using existing resources, methods, and design conventions, and then evaluates those thematic tactile maps to understand user confidence amongst B/LV users. This work contributes a proposed configuration of tactile mapping resources to be used for NHMP and evaluates user confidence while using those resources. Results suggest that B/LV users respond positively to using tactile maps in a high-stakes context such as NHMP, and that tactile maps can expand the number and diversity of people who are able to contribute to NHMP. To maximize contributions, we recommend that future tactile map research invest a greater amount of attention to developing resources for B/LV people to create, edit, and distribute maps themselves.

Is Time on Our Side? A Longitudinal Analysis of the Quality of Mandated Plans

Do plans get better over time? This deceptively simple question goes to the heart of our profession’s effectiveness. We use a multi-state, longitudinal analysis of eighty-four local plans to add to our knowledge base about changes in plan quality over time. Our longitudinal findings reinforce and extend the conclusions of previous cross-sectional studies of hazard mitigation plan quality. Simply put, local planning to meet federal Disaster Mitigation Act requirements grossly underperforms compared with its potential. Our findings raise cautionary lessons beyond the realm of risk reduction, as well as federal and state policymakers who seek to incentivize local planning.

Urban heat governance: examining the role of urban planning

ABSTRACT Heat is an increasing climate risk for cities due to climate change and the urban heat island effect. Extreme heat has inequitable impacts across social, economic, and urban environmental systems. Despite increasing awareness of heat risk, the planning and governance structures for mitigating and managing heat are less understood than those for other climate risks. We studied five large, climatically-diverse U.S. cities to better understand urban heat governance with a focus on the field of urban planning. We first conducted a plan evaluation of these cities’ comprehensive, climate action, and hazard mitigation plans (n = 14) and then interviewed urban planners, resilience professionals, hazard mitigation planners, emergency managers, and public health professionals (n = 22). We found that aspects of heat planning occur across a variety of municipal plans but only a small number of strategies were explicitly framed in terms of heat, suggesting an opportunity to better connect heat with other policy goals. Urban planners tended to play a backseat role relative to other professions, despite the field’s importance for reducing heat-related inequity. Better understanding the role of urban planning within broader governance structures can help policymakers to best engage in heat mitigation and management.

Ensemble of fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process in landslide susceptibility modeling from a humid tropical region of Western Ghats, Southern India.

The western flanks of the Western Ghats are one of the major landslide hotspots in India. Recent rainfall triggered landslide incidents in this humid tropical region necessitating the accurate and reliable landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) of selected parts of Western Ghats for hazard mitigation. In this study, a GIS-coupled fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique is used to evaluate the landslide-susceptible zones in a highland segment of the Southern Western Ghats. Fuzzy numbers specified the relative weights of nine landslide influencing factors that were established and delineated using the ArcGIS, and the pairwise comparison of these fuzzy numbers in the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) system resulted in standardized causative factor weights. Thereafter, the normalized weights are assigned to corresponding thematic layers, and finally, a landslide susceptibility map is generated. The model is validated using the area under the curve values (AUC) and F1 scores. The result reveals that about 27% of the study area is classified as highly susceptible zones followed by 24% area in moderately susceptible zone, 33% in low susceptible, and 16% in a very low susceptible area. Also, the study shows that the plateau scarps in the Western Ghats are highly susceptible to the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the predictive accuracy estimated by the AUC scores (79%) and F1 scores (85%) shows that the LSM map is trustworthy for future hazard mitigation and land use planning in the study area.

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS): Applications and Integration into Hazard Mitigation Planning

Abstract Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) (also referred to as Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles (UAVs), or drones) operations, focused on natural hazards, have experienced rapid expansion in the last decade. UAS uses before, during, and after natural hazard events, provide value for emergency management operations (e.g. Search-and-Rescue (SAR)), and post-event analytics. The Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Services (DHSES) manages UAS programs for public safety and emergency response activities in New York State. They also have the first FEMA-approved, locally adopted, web-based, interactive Hazard Mitigation Plans (HMPs). With recent advances in communication technologies (e.g. 5G), opportunities are emerging to establish a stewardship role to maximize regionwide UAS operations, including preparing for catastrophic natural hazards (e.g. earthquakes, hurricanes), leveraging existing HMPs, and incorporating new machine-learning techniques to use swarming networks before, during, and after a natural hazard event. A variety of stewardship approaches are discussed.

Evaluation of Social Vulnerability to Flood Hazard in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)

Floods are the most common natural hazards causing damage to properties and loss of life worldwide. They are not preventable but vulnerability assessments, hazard mitigation, and effective emergency management plans can reduce their impacts and facilitate recovery actions. Floods can have different impacts depending on the local physical conditions and on the social context represented by the economic and cultural patterns of a specific community. Social vulnerability is the susceptibility of social groups to the adverse impacts of natural hazards, including disproportionate death, injury, loss, or disruption of livelihood. Therefore, the social vulnerability analysis becomes of primary importance in understanding the main factors influencing the capacity of a specific community to anticipate, cope with, and recover from a flood event. In this context, this paper investigates the correlation between flood hazard and socio-economic factors across the Basilicata Region (southern Italy). The aim of this research is to evaluate flood hazard and social vulnerability index through a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach. Multivariate factor analysis was applied in this work to construct an overall social vulnerability index which was combined with the flood hazard distribution. Our results underline the presence of 107,587 people with a high level of both flood hazard and social vulnerability.

Aligning sustainability and regional earthquake hazard mitigation planning: integrating greenhouse gas emissions and vertical equity

Concerns about the potential economic consequences of earthquakes have increased in recent years as scientifically based probabilities of future earthquakes in many large urban areas have risen. These hazards disproportionately impact low-income communities as wealth disparities limit their capacity to prepare and recover from potentially disastrous events. In addition to major economic losses, the activities related to building recovery result in significant greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. This article develops a framework that quantifies the complex relationships between pre-earthquake retrofit activities and their economic, environmental and equity implications to promote informed decision-making, using the city of San Francisco, California as a case study. This research consists of two sections. In the first section, a bi-objective optimization model is proposed to identify optimal earthquake risk mitigation policies to minimize total earthquake-related economic and environmental costs, simultaneously. Decisions entail the seismic retrofit, combined seismic and energy retrofit or complete reconstruction of building-type groups. The benefits of increased energy efficiency of the upgraded buildings are incorporated to evaluate decisions from a holistic perspective. In the second section, the model is extended to address the issue of inequitable budget allocation from a public-sector perspective. Vertical equity considerations are incorporated as an optimization constraint to distribute available resources aiming to limit the discrepancy of expected losses as a fraction of income between households across income groups. The tradeoff between equity and economic efficiency is explored. Results show that life-cycle environmental impacts constitute an informative performance metric to regional risk mitigation decision-makers, in addition to the more customarily used monetary losses. Although construction costs primarily dictate optimal decisions from an economic perspective, energy considerations largely impact optimal decisions from an environmental perspective.

Coupled Urban Change and Natural Hazard Consequence Model for Community Resilience Planning.

This paper presents a new coupled urban change and hazard consequence model that considers population growth, a changing built environment, natural hazard mitigation planning, and future acute hazards. Urban change is simulated as an agent-based land market with six agent types and six land use types. Agents compete for parcels with successful bids leading to changes in both urban land use-affecting where agents are located-and structural properties of buildings-affecting the building's ability to resist damage to natural hazards. IN-CORE, an open-source community resilience model, is used to compute damages to the built environment. The coupled model operates under constraints imposed by planning policies defined at the start of a simulation. The model is applied to Seaside, Oregon, a coastal community in the North American Pacific Northwest subject to seismic-tsunami hazards emanating from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Ten planning scenarios are considered including caps on the number of vacation homes, relocating community assets, limiting new development, and mandatory seismic retrofits. By applying this coupled model to the testbed community, we show that: (a) placing a cap on the number of vacation homes results in more visitors in damaged buildings, (b) that mandatory seismic retrofits do not reduce the number of people in damaged buildings when considering population growth, (c) polices diverge beyond year 10 in the model, indicating that many policies take time to realize their implications, and (d) the most effective policies were those that incorporated elements of both urban planning and enforced building codes.

The role of natural hazard mitigation plans in an age of pandemics

With the onset of a pandemic, community planners need to be ready to assist communities to survive and thrive under current and future conditions. Every state and jurisdiction need a FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plan. This research explores the role of natural hazard mitigation planning before, during, and after the onset of a pandemic. A review of the 50 State Hazard Mitigation Plans (SHMPs) found 27 states identified pandemics as a hazard, but only four included mitigation actions, and none were sufficiently prepared for COVID-19. Advances in web-based tools offer the opportunity to combine the urgent need for mitigation planning strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic with a way forward for community planners as they prepare for future natural hazard events.

Urban Planning and Disasters: A Systematic Review PRISMA

Climate change is already witnessed today, future forecasts continue to warn us about the possible impacts of our actions in the short and long term. With an increase in extreme events and the population living in urban centers, more and more cities will experience the effects of disasters. Although there are policies aimed at dealing with disasters, we know that the current measures are not enough to minimize this scenario. To better understand the relationship between urban planning and disasters, this article carries out a Systematic, based on PRISMA. The methodology allows the analysis of the literature with greater rigor, transparency, and the possibility of replication. For this study, articles in English were considered, with the following terms: disaster, disaster risk reduction, hazard mitigation, urban planning, and master plan. The main findings of this review show us that good urban planning, guided by resilience and risk management, with broad social participation, can act in reducing vulnerability, risks, and the impact of disasters in cities.