Hazard Assessment Techniques Research Articles

Future worldwide coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic predictions by Gaidai multivariate risk evaluation method.

Accurate estimation of pandemic likelihood in every US state of interest and at any time. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious illness with a high potential for global dissemination and low rates of fatality and morbidity, placing some strains on national public health systems. This research intends to benchmark a novel technique, that enables hazard assessment, based on available clinical data, and dynamically observed patient numbers while taking into account pertinent territorial and temporal mapping. Multicentre, population-based, and biostatistical strategies have been utilized to process raw/unfiltered medical survey data. The expansion of extreme value statistics from the univariate to the bivariate situation meets with numerous challenges. First, the univariate extreme value types theorem cannot be directly extended to the bivariate (2D) case,-not to mention challenges with system dimensionality higher than 2D. Assessing outbreak risks of future outbreaks in any nation/region of interest. Existing bio-statistical approaches do not always have the benefits of effectively handling large regional dimensionality and cross-correlation between various regional observations. These methods deal with temporal observations of multi-regional phenomena. Apply contemporary, novel statistical/reliability techniques directly to raw/unfiltered clinical data. The current study outlines a novel bio-system hazard assessment technique that is particularly suited for multi-regional environmental, bio, and public health systems, observed over a representative period. With the use of the Gaidai multivariate hazard assessment approach, epidemic outbreak spatiotemporal risks may be properly assessed. Based on raw/unfiltered clinical survey data, the Gaidai multivariate hazard assessment approach may be applied to a variety of public health applications. The study's primary finding was an assessment of the risks of epidemic outbreaks, along with a matching confidence range. Future global COVID-19/severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV2) epidemic risks have been examined in the current study; however, COVID-19/SARS-COV2 infection transmission mechanisms have not been discussed.

Hazard assessment framework for statistical analysis of cut slopes using track inspection videos and geospatial information

ABSTRACT Transportation corridors constructed using through- and side-cuts are susceptible to hazardous slope failures, potentially causing infrastructure damage, operational suspensions and loss of life. To monitor the stability of known geohazards at the local scale, geotechnical investigation of each slope is typically performed to calculate a factor of safety. In many corridors, however, this method is labour-intensive due to the quantity of geohazards and statistical methods are instead used to identify hazardous sections. This paper introduces a new slope failure hazard assessment technique, utilising susceptibility mapping of geospatial information and computer vision-based analysis of right-of-way videos recorded by railroad track inspection vehicles, applied to a section of railroad track near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Combining these results, an enhanced relative hazard assessment algorithm was formulated. Using the developed framework, geohazards of primary concern were determined which should be prioritised for future geotechnical investigation and remediation efforts.

STPA enabled safety assessment in the architecting of complex systems

STPA is a hazard assessment technique that represents systems as hierarchical control structures composed of feedback control loops. Existing computational support focuses on creating the diagrams that depict these hierarchies. However, the elements in the loops and the signals exchanged must be determined manually. This impedes safety assessment, thus reducing the number of designs that can potentially be explored. Furthermore, the manual approach does not guarantee the correct update of the architecture with changes resulting from safety assessment, which can make the architecture inconsistent with the safety assessment. To overcome these limitations, proposed for the first time are two methods that automate the creation of: (1) hierarchical control structures and (2) detailed control loops. The methods create STPA models by analysing the architecture, which is modelled as a graph. The concept is illustrated with a representative example of a wheel brake system. The resulting models are compared with those obtained manually by the authors of STPA. The automation is shown to significantly reduce the required time and effort. It was also found to ensure consistency among the safety analysis and the architecture definition as it requires safety features to be included in the architecture before being considered in STPA analysis.

Recent Applications of Flash Flood Hazard Assessment Techniques: Case Studies from Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Flash floods are severe natural disasters due to their suddenness, frequency, and destruction. Every year, flash floods occur in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which are located in the heart of the Middle East. Extensive areas in Egypt and Saudi Arabia are covered by mountainous topography. Intense rainfall can generate flash floods with their magnitude dependent on geomorphology and storm characteristics. Flash flood hazard assessment is a feasible way to mitigate potential damage and losses. Illumination, review, and comparison of assessment techniques of flash flood hazards represent an urgent necessity to evaluate advances and challenges in this discipline. Google-scholar and Scopus were used to collect 50 recent scientific papers, most of them published between 2011 and 2021, using the keywords: floods, hazards, assessment, Egypt, Saudi Arabia. Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information systems (GIS) are the cornerstones of these studies, which include the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and geoprocessing tools. The two items facilitate the calculation of morphometric parameters. Dividing the area and determining the hazard level were the main steps in flash flood hazard assessment. The considered studies relied on varied sets of morphometric parameters that ranged from 3 to 24 morphometric parameters. Area, ruggedness ratio, basin shape index, stream frequency, slope index, and drainage density are the common parameters in the assessment of flash flood hazards. In a flood zone, buildings made from brick have better sustainability in terms of both global warming mitigation and life cycle cost than other materials. Future studies are essential to illustrate the relationships between different morphometric parameters and flash flood hazard degree through field data and define a reliable unified set of morphometric parameters to assess the flash flood hazard degree.

Editorial: Integration of state-of-art techniques for landslide hazard assessment and for mitigation caused by subsequent multimodal disaster

Editorial: Integration of state-of-art techniques for landslide hazard assessment and for mitigation caused by subsequent multimodal disaster

Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard mapping at national-scale in Australia using deep learning techniques

Australia is a relatively stable continental region but not tectonically inert, having geological conditions that are susceptible to liquefaction when subjected to earthquake ground motion. Liquefaction hazard assessment for Australia was conducted because no Australian liquefaction maps that are based on modern AI techniques are currently available. In this study, several conditioning factors including Shear wave velocity (Vs30), clay content, soil water content, soil bulk density, soil thickness, soil pH, distance from river, slope and elevation were considered to estimate the liquefaction potential index (LPI). By considering the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) technique, peak ground acceleration (PGA) was derived for 50 yrs period (500 and 2500 yrs return period) in Australia. Firstly, liquefaction hazard index (LHI) (effects based on the size and depth of the liquefiable areas) was estimated by considering the LPI along with the 2% and 10% exceedance probability of earthquake hazard. Secondly, ground acceleration data from the Geoscience Australia projecting 2% and 10% exceedance rate of PGA for 50 yrs were used in this study to produce earthquake induced soil liquefaction hazard maps. Thirdly, deep neural networks (DNNs) were also exerted to estimate liquefaction hazard that can be reported as liquefaction hazard base maps for Australia with an accuracy of 94% and 93%, respectively. As per the results, very-high liquefaction hazard can be observed in Western and Southern Australia including some parts of Victoria. This research is the first ever country-scale study to be considered for soil liquefaction hazard in Australia using geospatial information in association with PSHA and deep learning techniques. This study used an earthquake design magnitude threshold of Mw 6 using the source model characterization. The resulting maps present the earthquake-triggered liquefaction hazard and are intending to establish a conceptual structure to guide more detailed investigations as may be required in the future. The limitations of deep learning models are complex and require huge data, knowledge on topology, parameters, and training method whereas PSHA follows few assumptions. The advantages deal with the reusability of model codes and its transferability to other similar study areas. This research aims to support stakeholders’ on decision making for infrastructure investment, emergency planning and prioritisation of post-earthquake reconstruction projects.

Current status and advancement suggestions of ice-jam flood hazard and risk assessment

In many northern rivers, ice-jam flooding can be more severe than open-water flooding, leading to human casualties, damages to property and infrastructure, and adverse impacts on the ecology. Consequently, ice jam related flooding is a major concern for many riverside communities, water authorities, insurance companies, and government agencies. Ice-jam flood hazard delineation and risk analysis are important measures for flood preparation, mitigation, and management strategies. Although methodologies and techniques for open-water flood hazard and risk assessment are well established, methodologies and techniques for ice-jam flood hazard and risk assessment are often unavailable or less developed. In addition to this, a considerable number of studies have been conducted in the context of flood management, but a very limited number of studies have been carried out in real-time flood risk analysis during operational flood forecasting. In this paper, the current status of ice-jam flood hazard delineation and risk analysis is discussed. A framework for real-time risk analysis for operational flood forecasting is also discussed. Finally, current limitations and future requirements for developing effective ice-jam flood hazard delineation and risk analysis methodologies are provided.

Systemic safety management in anesthesiological practices

Anesthesiological practices are complex activities with inherent risks. Hazard assessment techniques based on cause-effect links and linear reasoning do not adequately represent the actual behavior of modern socio-technical systems, which are characterized by tight couplings and interactions among technical, human and organizational aspects. Analysing hazards following a linear perspective may result in a not completely effective management of process safety. This paper discusses the need for a systemic analysis for healthcare practices, applying such perspective to an anesthesiological process. More specifically, it aims to define process hazards, and unsafe control actions for preoperative and intraoperative anesthesiological activities, extending simple cause-effect reasoning through the System Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) and its hazard analysis technique, i.e. System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). The outcomes of the study based on qualitative research techniques point out the relevance of a systemic approach, with implications for process management. It is argued that the adoption of strict procedures to constraint the variability of everyday work represents a valuable solution only for some specific tasks, while for many others variability has to be accepted as a means to enhance patient safety in a healthy work environment.

Assessment of the Seismicity of Peshawar Region in Line with the Historical Data and Modern Building Codes (ASCE-07 & IBC-2006)

ABSTRACT The damages done by earthquakes in the human history can’t be denied in any sense as the phenomenon is responsible for bringing catastrophes both socially and economically. It is known that Pakistan is located in one of the seismically active regions of the world. The Quetta earthquake which occurred in 1935, the Ziarat earthquake of 2008, the Kashmir earthquake in 2005 and the Dallbaandin earthquake in 2011 bear the testimony of active seismicity in Pakistan. The Building code of Pakistan (BCP) 2007 has placed Peshawar in seismic zone 2B with a PGA range of 0.16–0.24. However, this is not in line with the historical data and available ground motion records. Therefore, in this research, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment technique was used to estimate the strong ground motion parameters for a grid of 11 km by 11 km, covering all the active faults within and around the Peshawar region and having significant effect on the seismicity of Peshawar. Moreover, PGA along with spectral acceleration values are required by modern building codes (IBC 2009 and ASCE-7) for the estimation of seismic loads, is calculated. From seismic hazard analysis, it was found that Peshawar lies in seismic Zone 1 with a PGA value of 0.06. The estimated PGA value was also validated and in line with the PGA values obtained from the ground motion records of Peshawar Meteorological Department.

A Numerical Landslide-Tsunami Hazard Assessment Technique Applied on Hypothetical Scenarios at Es Vedrà, Offshore Ibiza

This study presents a numerical landslide-tsunami hazard assessment technique for applications in reservoirs, lakes, fjords, and the sea. This technique is illustrated with hypothetical scenarios at Es Vedrà, offshore Ibiza, although currently no evidence suggests that this island may become unstable. The two selected scenarios include two particularly vulnerable locations, namely: (i) Cala d’Hort on Ibiza (3 km away from Es Vedrà) and (ii) Marina de Formentera (23 km away from Es Vedrà). The violent wave generation process is modelled with the meshless Lagrangian method smoothed particle hydrodynamics. Further offshore, the simulations are continued with the less computational expensive code SWASH (Simulating WAves till SHore), which is based on the non-hydrostatic non-linear shallow water equations that are capable of considering bottom friction and frequency dispersion. The up to 133-m high tsunamis decay relatively fast with distance from Es Vedrà; the wave height 5 m offshore Cala d’Hort is 14.2 m, reaching a maximum run-up height of over 21.5 m, whilst the offshore wave height (2.7 m) and maximum inundation depth at Marina de Formentera (1.2 m) are significantly smaller. This study illustrates that landslide-tsunami hazard assessment can nowadays readily be conducted under consideration of site-specific details such as the bathymetry and topography, and intends to support future investigations of real landslide-tsunami cases.

TECHNIQUES OF ROCKFALL INVENTORY IN EARTHQUAKE PRONE ROCK SLOPES

A relevant hazard in mountainous regions is the steep rock slopes concentrating rock falls. Although rock falls are characterized by smaller rock volumes compared to other landslide types, can also provoke severe damage to buildings, infrastructures and human life due to their sudden and highly fast movement. The key to understand the processes that result in rock fall onset is an integrated study of the major causing parameters that affect slope stability. A rock slope may be subjected to many forms of triggering factors including tectonic, geomorphic, seismic, climatic or even human induced damages. This contribution provides an overview of the previous and current research related to rock falls and uses case studies of North Peloponnese in order to prove the usefulness of these methods in the Greek territory. Collecting data and production of thematic maps by means of field and remote sensing investigations can yield far more updated results incorporated in hazard assessment techniques and protection measures.

Review of Photogrammetry-Based Techniques for Characterization and Hazard Assessment of Rock Faces

Photogrammetry-based techniques offer a fast and inexpensive way to obtain data needed for geotechnical characterization and hazard assessment of steep rock faces. These techniques also mitigate fieldwork risks associated with conventional structural mapping methods. A camera can function as an accurate survey tool, in most cases as accurate as conventional laser-based survey equipment. Millions of 3D coordinates can be determined from only a few photographs. Mounting a camera on an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) solves many of the challenges associated with measuring and mapping steep rock faces. Small low-cost UAVs offer operational flexibility and high quality images. With good photographs taken from appropriate locations, photogrammetry or structure from motion software can generate accurate point clouds, digital surface or terrain models, and orthophotos. With further analysis and interpretation, these can yield the geotechnical data needed to create realistic models in discrete element or finite element software to perform stability assessment.

The co-production of risk from a natural hazards perspective: science and policy interaction for landslide risk management in Italy

Despite continuing technological advancement in hazard and vulnerability assessment, risk modelling and hazard mitigation techniques, losses to disasters associated with natural hazards continue and in some cases are increasing across Europe and worldwide. This paper focuses on the need to bridge the gap between technical solutions and the sociopolitical contexts in which these are produced, to better understand and create more effective risk management regimes. We do so with application of the science–policy co-production frame to landslide risk management in Italy. The methodology deployed included a desk study informed by semi-structured interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders at national, regional and municipal level. We propose a normative and analytical framework for transferring co-production into natural hazard research by presenting a matrix identifying four contexts within which co-production may unfold. The matrix is based on two axes, which distinguish between innovation and its absence in science and policy domains. We examine several examples of co-production, such as the water–soil integrated approach to risk management or the implementation of hazard/risk assessment. The results highlight that the insulation of science from the institutional context within which knowledge is produced and used is a very problematic issue. This often hinders the implementation of desirable policies and undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, innovation in science and policy does not automatically result in successful solutions for landslide risk management. Finally, results confirm the utility of co-production but also highlight methodological challenges associated with the introduction of this new conceptual paradigm into the well-structured communities of scientists and policy-makers.

The QSPR-THESAURUS: the online platform of the CADASTER project.

The aim of the CADASTER project (CAse Studies on the Development and Application of in Silico Techniques for Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment) was to exemplify REACH-related hazard assessments for four classes of chemical compound, namely, polybrominated diphenylethers, per and polyfluorinated compounds, (benzo)triazoles, and musks and fragrances. The QSPR-THESAURUS website (http: / /qspr-thesaurus.eu) was established as the project's online platform to upload, store, apply, and also create, models within the project. We overview the main features of the website, such as model upload, experimental design and hazard assessment to support risk assessment, and integration with other web tools, all of which are essential parts of the QSPR-THESAURUS.

Security Early Warning Assessment Program of Hazardous Sources Based on Early Warning Information Processing Model

The early warning can constantly improve the monitoring and management of the hazardous sources to realize advance prevention and control. Many early warning methods do not predict and imitate the hazard sequel and the early warning information in incomplete. This essay analyzes and studies the early warning process of the hazardous sources, hazard assessment techniques and analyzes the hazardous sources quantitatively and qualitatively. This essay combines effectively the imitation of the hazard sequel and the early warning technology, proposes hazardous sources security early warning procedure information processing system structure and designs models for processing early warning information of the hazardous sources, improving the early warning of the hazardous sources and increasing the accuracy and efficiency of the prior warning. Combining with cases, it performs imitation of the hazard sequel of leakage accident. Practices have shown that the proposed imitated early warning structure and methods are efficient. The imitation result is nearly matched with the fact. The early warning gets satisfied effect having certain practical value.

Multi-hazard assessment using GIS in the urban areas: Case study - Banja Luka municipality, B&H

The research presents a techniques for natural hazard assessment using GIS and cartographic approaches with multi-hazard mapping in urban communities, because natural hazards are a multi-dimensional phenomena which have a spatial component. Therefore the use of Remote Sensing and GIS has an important function and become essential in urban multi-hazard assessment. The first aim of this research was to determine the geographical distributions of the major types of natural hazards in the study area. Seismic hazards, landslides, rockfalls, floods, torrential floods, and excessive erosion are the most significant natural hazards within the territory of Banja Luka Municipality. Areas vulnerable to some of these natural hazards were singled out using analytical maps. Based on these analyses, an integral map of the natural hazards of the study area was created using multi-hazard assessment and the total vulnerability was determined by overlapping the results. The detailed analysis, through the focused research within the most vulnerable areas in the study area will highlight the administrative units (urban centres and communes) that are vulnerable to various types of natural hazard. The results presented in this article are the first multi-hazard assessment and the first version of the integral map of natural hazards in the Republic of Srpska.

数値流体解析を用いた降下火山灰のハザード評価技術の現状と課題

数値流体解析を用いた降下火山灰のハザード評価技術の現状と課題

Implementation of a WebGIS-Based Geological Environment Data Management Information System for Guangyuan City

Geological hazard is one of the major natural hazards world facing now, In order to prevent and predict geological hazard, techniques for geological hazard management, assessment and prediction must be developed for the prevention of geological hazards. In this paper, a geological environment data management information system (GEMIS) was implemented based on WebGIS. GEMIS is designed for management geological environment data, as well as geological hazard point. GEMIS has achieved the functions for geological environmental data displaying, querying and analyzing, and many users can share the same geological environmental data due to the B/S frame work. The use of GEMIS can improve and enhance the rapid identification of receptor sites and fate of geological hazards, improving response time and mitigation strategies in the event of a geological hazard. GEMIS also provides each incident responder with access to the same maps and geological hazard information that other responders possess.

Application of chemical toxicity distributions to ecotoxicology data requirements under REACH

The European Union's REACH regulation has further highlighted the lack of ecotoxicological data for substances in the marketplace. The mandates under REACH (registration, evaluation, authorization, and restriction of chemicals) to produce data and minimize testing on vertebrates present an impetus for advanced hazard assessment techniques using read-across. Research in our group has recently focused on probabilistic ecotoxicological hazard assessment approaches using chemical toxicity distributions (CTDs). Using available data for chemicals with similar modes of action or within a chemical class may allow for selection of a screening point value (SPV) for development of environmental safety values, based on a probabilistic distribution of toxicity values for a specific endpoint in an ecological receptor. Ecotoxicity data for acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and surfactants in Daphnia magna and Pimephales promelas were gathered from several data sources, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ECOTOX and Pesticides Ecotoxicity databases, the peer-reviewed literature, and the Human and Environmental Risk Assessment (HERA) project. Chemical toxicity distributions were subsequently developed, and the first and fifth centiles were used as SPVs for the development of screening-predicted no-effect concentrations (sPNECs). The first and fifth centiles of these distributions were divided by an assessment factor of 1,000, as recommended by REACH guidance. Use of screening values created using these techniques could support the processes of data dossier development and environmental exposure assessment, allowing for rigorous prioritization in testing and monitoring to fill data gaps.

Automated Hazard Assessment Techniques Using Satellite Images Following the 2008 Sichuan China Earthquake

ABSTRACT Rapid seismic hazard assessment is crucial for accurate damage estimation right after earthquakes. New technologies provide faster damage detection compared to the traditional, manual assessments. One of the new technologies includes using satellite images. Pre- and post-earthquake satellite images can be used to identify damage patterns. One of the recent disastrous earthquakes occurred in Sichuan (Mw = 7.9) on May 12, 2008. Records show that 5 million buildings have collapsed, and more than 21 million buildings were damaged. This article presents an approach for earthquake hazard assessment using a change detection method applied to pre- and post-earthquake satellite imagery of Sichuan. The damage inspection for the identified areas was carried out performing image analysis of the pre- and post-event satellite images. In this study, a novel automated image analysis technique was developed to assess the impact of the earthquake on the flooding of the area's rivers as well as the tectonic movement of mountains. The technique was used to quantify the flooding and movement of mountains in Sichuan right after the earthquake. The proposed methodology utilizes satellite images and may potentially be used as a rapid procedure to quantify damage soon after an earthquake.