Hartman Model Research Articles

China's National Reserve Forest Project contribution to carbon neutrality and path to profitability

The National Reserve Forest Project (NRFP) is a forestry project launched by China in 2013 to ensure the safety of timber supply and create a carbon sink, which can contribute to China's future carbon neutrality goals. To evaluate the carbon neutral contribution and carbon sink benefits of the NRFP, it is necessary to estimate the carbon sink amount, carbon sink cost, and carbon sink price. A combined method, modified Hartman model, and Rubinstein-Stahl bargaining model were used to estimate and analyze the carbon sink amount, carbon sink cost, and carbon sink price of NRFPs from several typical NRFP zones to the nationwide level. Results show that: (1) if the yearly construction area of the NRFP keeps stable at 10.2 × 105 ha in the future, the carbon sink of NRFP will account for about 17.32%, 28.35%, and 80.00% of total carbon emissions in 2060 under low-, middle-, and high-policy scenarios, respectively, representing an increase compared to the current level of approximately 16%; (2) the weighted average carbon sink cost of NRFP is estimated to be 95.16 CNY/t CO2 e (lower than the average carbon sink cost of 150 CNY/t CO2 e), and several measures such as applying Public-private partnership investment (PPP), increasing project operation duration, and choosing construction areas with low farmland benefit can help further reduce carbon sink cost of NRRP; (3) the reasonable carbon sink price should fall between the carbon sink cost and marginal carbon emission reduction cost of enterprises, and increasing the carbon sink price has a positive impact on NRFP construction. NRFPs suffer economic losses in the present carbon trade market, but they will gradually become profitable with the rising carbon sink price in the future. Therefore, it is imperative to maintain or gradually expand the construction area, provide more financial support, and improve the carbon trading market of NRFPs.

A Retrospective Application of the Arbon and Hartman Models to the Union Cycliste International Mountain Bike World Cup.

Outdoor activities have accelerated in the past several years. The authors were tasked with providing medical care for the Union Cycliste International (UCI) mountain biking World Cup in Snowshoe, West Virginia (USA) in September 2021. The Hartman and Arbon models were designed to predict patient presentation and hospital transport rates as well as needed medical resources at urban mass-gathering events. However, there is a lack of standardized methods to predict injury, illness, and insult severity at rural mass gatherings. This study aimed to determine whether the Arbon model would predict, within 10%, the number of patient presentations to be expected and to determine if the event classification provided by the Hartman model would adequately predict resources needed during the event. Race data were collected from UCI event officials and injury data were collected from participants at time of presentation for medical care. Predicted presentation and transport rates were calculated using the Arbon model, which was then compared to the actual observed presentation rates. Furthermore, the event classification provided by the Hartman model was compared to the resources utilized during the event. During the event, 34 patients presented for medical care and eight patients required some level of transport to a medical facility. The Arbon predictive model for the 2021 event yielded 30.3 expected patient presentations. There were 34 total patient presentations during the 2021 race, approximately 11% more than predicted. The Hartman model yielded a score of four. Based on this score, this race would be classified as an "intermediate" event, requiring multiple Advanced Life Support (ALS) and Basic Life Support (BLS) personnel and transport units. The Arbon model provided a predicted patient presentation rate within reasonable error to allow for effective pre-event planning and resource allocation with only a four patient presentation difference from the actual data. While the Arbon model under-predicted patient presentations, the Hartman model under-estimated resources needed due to the high-risk nature of downhill cycling. The events staffed required physician skills and air medical services to safely care for patients. Further evaluation of rural events will be needed to determine if there is a generalized need for physician presence at smaller events with inherently risky activities, or if this recurring cycling event is an outlier.

Validation of a Belgian Prediction Model for Patient Encounters at Football Mass Gatherings.

To validate the Belgian Plan Risk Manifestations (PRIMA) model, actual patient presentation rates (PPRs) from Belgium's largest football stadium were compared with predictions provided by existing models and the Belgian PRIMA model. Actual patient presentations gathered from 41 football games (2010-2019) played at the King Baudouin Stadium (Brussels, Belgium) were compared with predictions by existing models and the PRIMA model. All attendees who sought medical help from in-event health services (IEHS) in the stadium or called 1-1-2 within the closed perimeter around the stadium were included. Data were analyzed by ANOVA, Pearson correlation tests, and Wilcoxon singed-rank test. A total of 1,630,549 people attended the matches, with 626 people needing first aid. Both the PRIMA and the Hartman model over-estimated the number of patient encounters for each occasion. The Arbon model under-estimated patient encounters for 9.75% (95% CI, 0.49-19.01) of the events. When comparing deviations in predictions between the PRIMA model to the other models, there was a significant difference in the mean deviation (Arbon: Z = -5.566, P <.001, r = -.61; Hartman: Z = -4.245, P <.001, r = .47). When comparing the predicted patient encounters, only the Arbon model under-predicted patient presentations, but the Hartman and the PRIMA models consistently over-predicted. Because of continuous over-prediction, the PRIMA model showed significant differences in mean deviation of predicted PPR. The results of this study suggest that the PRIMA model can be used during planning for domestic and international football matches played at the King Baudouin Stadium, but more data and further research are needed.

Determining the optimal rotations of larch plantations when multiple carbon pools and wood products are valued

Plantations can provide a large amount of wood products for human society but also have incredible potential to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere due to its growth. However, management of these even-aged plantations to maximize the joint benefits of wood production and carbon sequestration objectives for forest managers and policymakers remains unclear, especially under the stringent targets of 2 °C climatic change mitigation. Therefore, an efficient theoretical framework based on the typical Hartman model was developed in this paper to determine the optimal rotations of even-aged plantations, in which multiple wood products and carbon pools within an infinite time horizon were considered. As an example, the sensitivity of the optimal rotations and their corresponding land expectation values (LEVs) with respect to different carbon pools (i.e., wood products, bioenergy, harvested residuals, stump roots, and naturally generated dead organic matter), as well as a set of stand conditions (site index and stand density) and economic parameters (carbon price and discount rate) were quantitatively evaluated for state-owned larch plantations in northeast China. The results showed that the alternative carbon pools could increase the optimal rotations of larch plantations by 1–3 years for a commonly used management scenario (site index = 16 m, carbon price = 100 CNY/ton)). The optimal rotations decreased linearly with increasing site indices (R2 = 0.95) and initial densities (R2 = 0.98) but increased linearly with increasing carbon prices (R2 = 0.99); however, significant negative exponential trends were observed with increasing discount rates (R2 = 0.92). Except for some extreme cases (site index ≤12 m, discount rate ≥ 6%), the optimal rotations of LEVs are usually larger than those of maximizing sustainable timber yield, in which the differences between them were as much as approximately 4 years of site index (20 m), 6 years of initial density (6666 trees/ha), 15 years of carbon price (1000 CNY/ton) and 9 years of discount rate (3%).

Implications of the reservation price strategy on the optimal harvest decision and production of nontimber goods in an even-aged forest stand

This study analyzes the effects of adopting an adaptive harvest strategy in even-aged forest management under timber price uncertainty on the production of nontimber goods. We use the reservation price strategy (“harvest when the observed timber prices are higher than the reservation prices”) on a longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) stand and employ the Faustmann–Hartman model as a benchmark. We assume that a longleaf pine stand can be managed for timber production, water production, carbon sequestration, and pine straw raking, depending on the planting density. Our results indicate that the reservation price strategy leads to longer expected harvest age when planting density is high. The reservation price strategy does not lead to increases in water production and carbon sequestration with low planting density. With high planting density, the reservation price strategy leads to increases in the amount of in situ carbon sequestered by 14.4–24.7 Mg·ha–1. Our findings suggest that managing longleaf pine forests in good- or poor-quality sites is a profitable alternative and enables water production and carbon sequestration.

How does a biodiversity value impact upon optimal rotation length? An investigation using species richness and forest stand age

We have conducted one of the first attempts to integrate empirical biodiversity data with economic modelling of optimum rotation length for forest stands. We sought relationships between different taxonomic groups and stand age for a range of forest types based upon UK biodiversity assessment data. We then examined the impact of these relationships in combination with biodiversity monetary values on stand-level forest management – something which ecologists might anticipate would lead to extended rotations. Although we found some evidence of significant relationships between overall species richness and stand age for many of the forest types considered, with examples of minima at around 40 years for Sitka spruce in foothills and Corsican pine in lowlands and a maximum at around 50 years for Scots pine in lowlands, at individual taxonomic group level only about 4% of responses were different from constant. However, the overall results mask potentially diverse relationships for individual taxonomic groups. We found evidence of increasing and decreasing relationships (as well as no response) at individual group level which may result from the particular niche requirements and the species assemblages present. When incorporated into the economic Hartman model, the main relationships were found to make minimal difference (with two exceptions) to optimal rotation length under standard assumptions based upon biodiversity values from the literature. When we extended our modelling to incorporate a higher value afforded to biodiversity than published values, we saw significant changes in optimal rotation length in more cases. Our results suggest the need for further refinement of biodiversity estimation and valuation methodology – and we make recommendations for future developments.

How to manage a small-scale multi-use forest?

The management of a multiple-use and small-scale forest generating merchantable household forest amenities, as mushroom amenities, is studied. We consider a wooded mushroom area and a timber area in the forest. An Hartman model, with an environmental dependency of the amenity area is considered. Optimal timber and non-timber cutting ages and optimal proportion of amenity area are derived. Their behaviours in particular with respect to the market amenity unit value are studied. Moreover an oscillating seasonal amenity production, as the mushroom production, is derived and studied in relation with the optimal tree cutting ages.

Does Taxation Effect FDI in India? An Empirical Study of Hartman Model

In recent years, a large body of academicians and professionals has focused on the effect of tax policy on both inbound and outbound foreign direct investment. This study examines the possible effects of domestic taxes and rates of return on FDI in India. Using the econometric models given by Hartman (1984) for a sixteen-year sample period, i.e. 1992-2007, tax policies are found to be significantly affecting FDI in India. The model was empirically investigated in sixteen forms with different ratio of FDI to different type of GNPs as dependent variables.

THE OPTIMAL ROTATIONS OF GMELINA STAND ON TWO CARBON PROJECTS: LENGTHENING ROTATION AND AFFORESTATION

Forest plantation may contribute economically and socially as a provider of wood raw materials for industry and providing jobs for local people. In addition, forest plantation may also contribute as watershed protection and carbon sequestration. Projects on carbon sequestration from plantation forest can be conducted in two types: (1) afforestation and (2) lengthening forest rotation. One of the potential carbon markets operationalized in the field is voluntary market with Verified Carbon Standard mechanism. This study aimed to analyze the optimal rotations of gmelina forests on two carbon projects: lengthening rotation and afforestation. The method used in this study was by using Hartman model ( i.e. Faustmann) by maximizing profit with the revenue source from timber and carbon sequestration project. The results of this study showed that carbon price will affect the optimal rotation for lengthening forest rotation of VCS project. Meanwhile, for VCS afforestation project, carbon price had no effect on the optimal rotation on gmelina forest. The NPV value of afforestation project was relatively higher than that of NPV value of lengthening forest rotation project, since the amount of carbon that can be credited relatively higher in afforestation project.

The Potential of REDD&amp;#43; for Carbon Sequestration in Tropical Forests: Supply Curves for Carbon Storage for Kalimantan, Indonesia

Abstract We study the potential of tropical multi-age multi-species forests for sequestering carbon in response to financial incentives from REDD+. Following existing carbon crediting schemes, the use of reduced impact logging techniques (RIL) allows a forest manager to apply for carbon credits whereas conventional logging (CL) does not. This paper is the first to develop a Hartman model with selective cutting in this setting that takes additionality of carbon sequestration explicitly into account. We apply the model using data for Kalimantan, Indonesia, for both private and government forest managers. The latter have a lower discount rate and are exempt from taxes. RIL leads to less damages on the residual stand than CL and has lower variable but higher fixed costs. We find that a system of carbon credits through REDD+ can increase carbon stored per hectare by 15.8% if the forest is privately managed and by 22% under government management if the carbon price equals the average 2015 price in the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme. Interestingly, awarding carbon credits to carbon stored in end-use wood products does not increase the amount of carbon stored, nor Land Expectation Value.

The potential of REDD+ for carbon sequestration in tropical forests: Supply curves for carbon storage for Kalimantan, Indonesia

We study the potential of tropical multi-age multi-species forests for sequestering carbon in response to financial incentives from REDD+. Following existing carbon crediting schemes, the use of reduced impact logging techniques (RIL) allows a forest manager to apply for carbon credits whereas conventional logging (CL) does not. This paper is the first to develop a Hartman model with selective cutting in this setting that takes additionality of carbon sequestration explicitly into account. We apply the model using data for Kalimantan, Indonesia, for both private and government forest managers. The latter have a lower discount rate and are exempt from taxes. RIL leads to less damages on the residual stand than CL and has lower variable but higher fixed costs. We find that a system of carbon credits through REDD+ can increase carbon stored per hectare by 15.8% if the forest is privately managed and by 22% under government management if the carbon price equals the average 2015 price in the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme. Interestingly, awarding carbon credits to carbon stored in end-use wood products does not increase the amount of carbon stored, nor Land Expectation Value.

The impact of carbon trade on the management of short-rotation forest plantations

We extended the Hartman model to examine the optimal rotation, taking into consideration the economic benefits of wood and the dynamics of three carbon pools (aboveground biomass, dead organic matter, and harvested forest products). Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) stands in Southern China were taken for a numerical example to analyze the effects of carbon price on the optimal management of short-rotation plantations. The results show that, with the current price of carbon, introducing the effects of harvesting on different carbon pools into the decision model would increase the optimal rotation age on poor (SI=10) and medium (SI=17) sites by one year, while it does not have any impact on the optimal rotation for good sites (SI=21). Irrespective of site condition, the optimal rotation age is not sensitive to carbon price and interest rate. An increase in interest rate by 1% would reduce the optimal rotation age by one year. In conclusion, forest carbon trade could effectively enhance land owners' income from short-rotation forest plantations. However, it does not lead to any significant increase in forest carbon sink.

Economic Impact of Net Carbon Payments and Bioenergy Production in Fertilized and Non-Fertilized Loblolly Pine Plantations

Sequestering carbon in forest stands and using woody bioenergy are two potential ways to utilize forests in mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Such forestry related strategies are, however, greatly influenced by carbon and bioenergy markets. This study investigates the impact of both carbon and woody bioenergy markets on land expectation value (LEV) and rotation age of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) forests in the southeastern United States for two scenarios—one with thinning and no fertilization and the other with thinning and fertilization. Economic analysis was conducted using a modified Hartman model. The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted during various activities such as management of stands, harvesting, and product decay was included in the model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted with a range of carbon offset, wood for bioenergy, and forest product prices. The results showed that LEV increased in both management scenarios as the price of carbon and wood for bioenergy increased. However, the results indicated that the management scenario without fertilizer was optimal at low carbon prices and the management scenario with fertilizer was optimal at higher carbon prices for medium and low forest product prices. Carbon payments had a greater impact on LEV than prices for wood utilized for bioenergy. Also, increase in the carbon price increased the optimal rotation age, whereas, wood prices for bioenergy had little impact. The management scenario without fertilizer was found to have longer optimal rotation ages.

Economic and Life-Cycle Analysis of Forest Carbon Sequestration and Wood-Based Bioenergy Offsets in the Central Hardwood Forest Region of United States

This study investigates the combined impact of carbon and bioenergy markets on upland oak dominated mixed hardwood forests in the Central Hardwood Forest Region (CHFR) of the United States. A modification of the Hartman model was used for the economic analysis of carbon sequestration and using wood-based biomass for bioenergy. A life-cycle assessment was used to determine the amount of carbon sequestered due to stand growth and emitted during harvesting and decay of wood products. Two scenarios were taken, one where additionality of carbon is considered and the other where it is not. Sensitivity analysis was done with the range of carbon and bioenergy prices. The results show that net carbon payments have more impact on land expectation value (LEV) when additionality is not considered; in contrast, bioenergy payments have more impact on LEV when additionality is considered. Carbon and bioenergy prices also influenced the amount of stand level supply of forest products and carbon in both scenarios. In general, sawtimber, wood bioenergy, and carbon supply increased with an increase in carbon prices, whereas, pulpwood supply decreased. With few exceptions at higher carbon prices, bioenergy supply decreased with the increase in wood bioenergy prices, showing a backward bending supply curve in both scenarios.

Changing the face of learning @ UWS

This paper describes and analyses a whole of institutional transformation to blended learning at the University of Western Sydney (UWS) using the Moskal, Dziuban and Hartman (2013) model. An institution wide and a school (or faculty) lens has been applied to each of the components of the model. UWS previously operated as a largely on-campus institution with small pockets of innovation. While the transformation was a top down direction, it was based on analysis of students’ needs and desires and has been characterised by flexibility in its implementation. The change has also been supported through funding and recruitment of learning design expertise. While it is still too early to be definitive about learning and graduate outcomes, indicative data such as student satisfaction and unit results is trending positive. Moreover, the transformation has largely been well received by the faculty and university staff as a whole.

Landowners’ conservation motives and the size of information rents in environmental bidding systems

Abstract We examine landowners’ conservation motives, conservation costs and information rents in environmental bidding systems designed for forestry with the help of Faustmann and Hartman models and data from Finnish conservation program. We show that the Faustmann landowners receive information rents, on average 55% of the rental payments. For the Hartman landowners the high conservation costs of old stands result in low information rents; they are only 13% of the rental payments. This estimate omits amenity benefits the landowners derive from their forests; accounting for these benefits would increase information rents dramatically. Despite the high information rents, landowners’ conservation motives decrease the rental payment required for participation in the conservation program. Hence, landowners’ conservation motives give governments a great opportunity to allocate conservation contracts in a more cost effective way, thereby extracting larger benefits for scarce conservation funds.

The Application of the Hartman Model in the Assessment of Agro-Forestry Operations' Income

The Application of the Hartman Model in the Assessment of Agro-Forestry Operations' Income

Book Reviews

Ramon Lopez of University of Maryland at College Park reviews “Economics of Forest Resources” by Gregory S. Amacher, Markku Ollikainen, Erkki Koskela,. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins “Provides a technical survey of forest resource economics, concentrating on developments within the past twenty-five years. Discusses the history of forest economics thought; the Faustmann rotation model; Hartman models of timber and amenity production; two-period life-cycle models; design of forest policy instruments; deforestation--models and policy instruments; conservation of biodiversity in boreal and temperate forests; forest age class models; uncertainty in life-cycle models; risk of catastrophic events; stochastic rotation models; and dynamic models of forest resources. Amacher is Julian N. Cheatham Professor of Forest and Natural Resource Economics at Virginia Polytechnic and State University. Ollikainen is Professor of Environmental and Resource Economics at the University of Helsinki. Koskela is Professor of Public Economics at the University of Helsinki and Academy Professor of Economics at the Academy of Finland. Name and subject indexes.”

MODELING IMPACTS OF BIOENERGY MARKETS ON NONINDUSTRIAL PRIVATE FOREST MANAGEMENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

Abstract The potential impacts of bioenergy markets on slash pine plantation management on nonindustrial private forestlands in the southeastern United States were analyzed. We developed an integrated Black–Scholes and modified Hartman model to achieve this task. The risk of damage from catastrophic natural disturbances such as wildfires and pest outbreaks associated with the exclusion/incorporation of thinnings and variation in timber salvage rates was also included. Three scenario sets were considered: status quo or no thinning scenario, thinning scenario for pulpwood, and thinning scenario for bioenergy at differing levels of risk and salvage. The results indicated that the incorporation of thinnings either for pulpwood or bioenergy increases the forestland value regardless of the risk when the salvage value of the stand is 0.8. When the two thinning scenarios were compared, the land expectation value for the thinning scenario for bioenergy was greater at any level of risk compared with the thinning scenario for pulpwood, averaging a difference of 11.5% and 11.7% for salvageable portions of 0.8 and 0, respectively.

Old-growth boreal forests: Worth protecting for biodiversity?

This paper analyzes socially optimal forest management in terms of the rotation period and strict protection of stands when society values biodiversity benefits and harvest revenue. By using species presence and decaying wood functions, the Hartman model is extended to tackle biodiversity. A parametric version is developed to assess optimal management by using Finnish data on 32 old-growth stands. The results suggest that delayed harvesting is the optimal solution if the society values the annual flow of biodiversity benefits from these forests at or above €106 per hectare on average. If the annual value of biodiversity benefits is at or above €502 per hectare, then old-growth forest are set aside from commercial harvesting permanently. With the reference value of biodiversity, 251 €/ha/a derived from stated preference surveys, the parametric model shows that delayed harvesting is the most common option for the socially optimal management of old-growth forests, but two stands are preserved. In this case, the integrated approach maximizing both biodiversity benefits and harvest revenue results in considerably longer rotation periods than pure maximization of harvest revenue. The Hartman rotation ages and the number of permanently protected stands are, however, sensitive to the level of interest rate and stumpage prices.