Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier Research Articles

A multi-sectoral approach to the Harrod foreign trade multiplier

With this inquiry, we seek to develop a multi-sectoral version of the static Harrod foreign trade multiplier, by showing that it can be derived from an extended version of the Pasinettian model of structural change and international trade. This new version highlights the connections between the balance of payments and levels of employment and production. It is also shown that from this disaggregated version of the Harrod foreign trade multiplier we can derive an aggregate version of the multiplier. By following this approach we go a step further in establishing the connections between the structural economic dynamic and the balance-of-payments-constrained-growth approaches.

Levels of Economic Development and Appropriate Specification of the Harrod Foreign-Trade Multiplier

This paper examines possible relationships between the income elasticities of exports and/or imports and levels (stages) of economic development in the countries under consideration. It also analyzes the consequences of such possible relationships for the constancy and reliability of different versions of the Harrod foreign-trade multiplier.

The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-orientated Approach to Economic Growth: an Evaluation

This paper puts forward a demand-orientated model of economic growth, as an alternative to the supply-orientated approach of neoclassical theory, and evaluates the extensive research testing the dynamic Harrod trade multiplier model developed by Thirlwall and extended by McCombie. It is critical of the continued dismissal of demand constraints as an explanation of inter-country growth rate differences in the models of McGregor & Swales, Crafts, Krugman, etc., and in the ‘new’ growth theory literature, although it is sympathetic to the rehabilitation of the role increasing returns for an understanding of cumulative processes which make for divisions in the world economy.

An explanation of the slowdown in US economic growth

This paper provides a Keynesian account of the slowdown in the United States economic growth as suggested by the growth model of Thirlwall. According to Thirlwall's model, economic growth is determined by the dynamic Harrod foreign trade multiplier. This multiplier relation indicates that the fall in the rate of economic growth has been brought about mainly by an increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports

Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint

Preface - Acknowledgements - Alternative Theories of Growth Performance:I The Supply Orientated and Neoclassical Approaches - Alternative Theories of Growth Performance:II The Demand Orientated Approach - The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences - Non-Price Competition, Trade and the Balance of Payments - Critiques and Defences of the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model - Economic Growth, the Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Hicks Super-Multiplier - Export-Led Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint - Export-Led Growth, Regional Problems and Cumulative Causation

Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint.

Preface - Acknowledgements - Alternative Theories of Growth Performance:I The Supply Orientated and Neoclassical Approaches - Alternative Theories of Growth Performance:II The Demand Orientated Approach - The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences - Non-Price Competition, Trade and the Balance of Payments - Critiques and Defences of the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model - Economic Growth, the Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Hicks Super-Multiplier - Export-Led Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint - Export-Led Growth, Regional Problems and Cumulative Causation

Static versus dynamic specifications and the Harrod foreign trade multiplier

The validity of the Harrod foreign trade multiplier is tested using new econometric techniques. The equations obtained still support the conclusions drawn from the results obtained in the past.

‘Thirlwall's Law’ and balance of payments constrained growth: more on the debate

The various criticisms that have levelled against Thirlwall's Law by McGregor and Swales are examined. It is shown that their arguments are untenable. The relationship between the necolassical law of one price and Thirlwall's Law is clarified. Thirlwall's Law is not overwhelmingly rejected by the evidence as McGregor and Swales assert. Their suppression of the influence of the price term on the estimates used in the test proposed by McCombie is inappropriate. Their regression analyis is also mid-specified and a preferable specification provides no support for their conclusions. They repeatedly argue that Thirlwall's modele cannot account for changes in market shares and the that the estimated income elasticities of demand for exports and imports cannot capture the effects of non-price competition. This was shown to be erroneous by McCombie and the reasons advanced are further elaborated. McGregor and Swales provide another interpretation of the relationship between Thirlwll's Law and the Harrod foreign trade multiplier, But their criticism of McCombie is unwarranted. The methodology of McGregor and Swales seems to be one of ‘naive falsificationism’.

The Harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth in Asian countries

The validity of the Harrod foreign trade multiplier for 11 Asian countries is tested. The results obtained generally support Thrilwall's specification of the multiplier. This suggests, in an open economy, relevant economic management is the factor that manipulates the income elasticities of exports and imports.

The Harrod foreign trade multiplier revisited

The Harrod foreign trade multiplier revisited

Balance of payments, the Harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth: the European and North American experience, 1970–85

(1988). Balance of payments, the Harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth: the European and North American experience, 1970–85. Applied Economics: Vol. 20, No. 12, pp. 1635-1642.