Harmful Policy Research Articles

Are most published research findings false? Trends in statistical power, publication selection bias, and the false discovery rate in psychology (1975-2017).

The validity of scientific findings may be challenged by the replicability crisis (or cases of fraud), which may result not only in a loss of trust within society but may also lead to wrong or even harmful policy or medical decisions. The question is: how reliable are scientific results that are reported as statistically significant, and how does this reliability develop over time? Based on 35,515 papers in psychology published between 1975 and 2017 containing 487,996 test values, this article empirically examines the statistical power, publication bias, and p-hacking, as well as the false discovery rate. Assuming constant true effects, the statistical power was found to be lower than the suggested 80% except for large underlying true effects (d = 0.8) and increased only slightly over time. Also, publication bias and p-hacking were found to be substantial. The share of false discoveries among all significant results was estimated at 17.7%, assuming a proportion θ = 50% of all hypotheses being true and assuming that p-hacking is the only mechanism generating a higher proportion of just significant results compared to just nonsignificant results. As the analyses rely on multiple assumptions that cannot be tested, alternative scenarios were laid out, again resulting in the rather optimistic result that although research results may suffer from low statistical power and publication selection bias, most of the results reported as statistically significant may contain substantial results, rather than statistical artifacts.

Unethical Issues in Twenty-First Century International Development and Global Health Policy

Abstract Billions in development aid is provided annually by international donors in the Majority World, much of which funds health equity. Yet, common neocolonial practices persist in development that compromise what is done in the name of well-intentioned policymaking and programming. Based on a qualitative analysis of fifteen case studies presented at a 2022 conference, this research examines trends involving unethical partnerships, policies, and practices in contemporary global health. The analysis identifies major modern-day issues of harmful policy and programming in international aid. Core issues include inequitable partnerships between and representation of international stakeholders and national actors, abuse of staff and unequal treatment, and new forms of microaggressive practices by Minority World entities on low-/middle-income nations (LMICs), made vulnerable by severe poverty and instability. When present, these issues often exacerbate institutionalized discrimination, hostile work environments, ethnocentrism, and poor sustainability in development. These unbalanced systems perpetuate a negative development culture and can place those willing to speak out at risk. At a time when the world faces increased threats including global warming and new health crises, development and global health policy and practice must evolve through inclusive dialogue and collaborative effort.

In Medias Res: Using Sociology to Uncover the Harm of Arbitrary Deprivation of Nationality in Colombia. Reflections on Public Sociology as a Graduate Student1

Some literature on public sociology conceives of students as a public rather than potential or real practitioners of this type of sociology. There is a dearth of texts reflecting on graduate student training in public sociology and the trade‐offs they face. In this paper, I engage in a reflexive account of my experience doing public sociology, as I partnered with nonprofits to conceptualize, research, and write a report on the effects of stripped citizenship in Colombia after a mistaken administrative decision deprived 40,000 mostly binnational Venezuelan‐Colombians of their nationality in that country. This report has served as part of strategic litigation and to raise public awareness of the harmful policy. I argue that three things are key for graduate students to engage in public sociology and have been overlooked. First, training in public sociology, especially training with elements of apprenticeship, can develop the publicly engaged sociological imagination and toolkit, which is key to identifying opportunities for interventions in the midst of fieldwork, and models for interventions. Second, support from established professors. And third, local, contextual knowledge is indispensable. I also discuss ways to offset some of the trade‐offs that graduate students are likely to face when doing public sociology.

Do turbulent business environments shape asymmetric trade policy responses? Insights into the Covid-19 pandemic and the Great Recession

Today's pandemic and the Great Recession are the most turbulent moments of the 21st century. The aim of the paper is to explore the pattern of response through mixes of harmful trade policy interventions during these two systemic crises.The descriptive assessment focuses on two broad categories of measures, i.e. import-related and export-related harmful interventions. Some stylized facts emerged from this analysis and conclude that the two major crises led to different responses from governments, driven by specific reasons and needs. These patterns of response challenge the future of international trading system and the behavior of companies in the global business environment. Therefore, this research provides valuable information not only for the business community, but also for policymakers.

The Impact of Changes in Exchange Rates on Indicators of Stability in the Iraqi Economy after 2003

This study highlights the exchange rate policy as one of the important economic policies that support the work of the monetary and financial policy within the successful partial reforms. Those reforms are efficient and influential in economy structure, especially in the case of the availability of continuous structural reforms and control of unproductive expenditures with adopting many treatments that are devoid of defects and shortcomings in the economic, commercial and investment aspects. As well as, at the same time, it is considered a harmful policy if it is used in an economic environment that suffers from the most basic requirements of development due to the importance of most of the effects that the change in the exchange rate generates on the indicators of economic stability. However, what the Iraqi economy is experiencing in terms of the presence of a heavy legacy of inherent crises in the economy, perhaps the most important of which is the imbalance affecting the balance of payments, the general budget, the emergence of inflation and the rise in the public debt index is a clear translation of deep failures in the economic structure. Yet, the impact of the change in exchange rates is hardly devoid of a role in activating those failures that represent an obstacle to the progress of the economy through the negative effects that this change in exchange rates imposes on the reality of those indicators. Finally, this study has concluded that the weak and ineffective effect of adopting the policy of reducing the Iraqi dinar is due to the lack of complete adaptation in the structure of the Iraqi economy for the success of this implementation in the short term, with this reduction, Iraq has been distanced from economic stability, since the stability of any country is linked to the stability of the national currency exchange rate against foreign currencies, to ensure that it is far from the sharp fluctuations experienced by any country through the nature of the existing international and commercial relations with the countries of the world.

Protecting and Expanding Medicaid Access: Confronting Health Disparities Compounded by COVID-19.

Protecting and Expanding Medicaid Access: Confronting Health Disparities Compounded by COVID-19.

Effectiveness, Spillovers, and Well-Being Effects of Driving Restriction Policies

We study the effectiveness, spillovers, and well-being effects of low emission zones in Germany, an emission-intensity-based driving restriction rapidly growing in popularity. Using regression discontinuity and group-time difference-in-differences designs, we show that previous estimates of the policy’s impact on traffic-related air pollution significantly underestimate its effectiveness. We provide evidence of beneficial and harmful policy spillovers to neighboring areas, and increases in ozone due to changes in the chemical balance with precursor contaminants. Policy effects are heterogeneous by season, with greater decreases in traffic pollutants during winter and increases in ozone during spring and summer. Using individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we further find that the policy decreases subjective well-being despite clear evidence of health benefits. The decline in well-being is especially pronounced in the first year after policy implementation and is transitory.

2020 developments in the provision of early medical abortion by telemedicine in the UK

The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated the rapid implementation of telemedical health services. In the United Kingdom, one service that has benefitted from this response is the provision of early medical abortion. England, Wales, and Scotland have all issued approval orders to this effect. These orders allow women to terminate pregnancies up to certain gestational limits, removing the need for them to contravene social distancing measures to access care. However, they are intended only as temporary measures for the duration of the pandemic response. In this paper, we chart these developments and further demonstrate the already acknowledged politicisation of abortion care. We focus on two key elements of the orders: (1) the addition of updated clinical guidance in the Scottish order that suggests an extended gestational limit, and (2) sunset clauses in the English and Welsh orders, as well as an indication of similar intentions in Scotland. In discussing these two issues, we suggest that the refusal of UK governments to introduce telemedical provision of early medical abortion previously has not been based on health concerns. Further, we question whether it would be appropriate for the approval orders to be lifted following the pandemic, suggesting that to do so would represent regressive and harmful policy.

Foreign invested firms’ responses to policy changes: an empirical analysis in Vietnam

Previous studies on responses of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) firms to policy changes mainly focus on the impact of government policies on foreign investment flows in a country or in a province. So far, there has been no research on how Foreign Direct Investment enterprises, which are investing in Vietnam, react to unexpected changes in policies. We focus on studying some main factors affecting the behavior of FDI firms in Vietnam when the policy changes adversely. Using the data set of the annual Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) survey with the foreign invested firms (FIFs) in Vietnam for 4 years from 2013 to 2016, the study shows that enterprises’ behaviors strongly depend on the capacity to predict changes in government policies. The policy changes directly affect business activities, so policymakers need to make a long-term stability plan to attract the FIFs. In addition, the FIFs tend to choose moving production to another country or coordinating with other businesses if local leaders are highly transparent. The opposite is true for the proactivity. In the case that local leaders are proactive, it helps FIFs feel secure to invest with enthusiastic support so the desire to move location or coordinate with other businesses is reduced. On the other hand, the FIFs are more likely to employ both formal and informal diplomacy if there is an increase in the number of employees, time spent interacting with government officers and prediction about policy change. Moreover, it is more likely to employ formal diplomacy than informal diplomacy in the case of FIFs’ size expanding. Similar to that case, it is true when increasing the capability of predicting harmful policy changes. We also find that the tendency of choosing formal diplomacy of foreign leaders is higher than that of Vietnamese leaders.

A STATE-OF-THE-ART REVIEW OF TOURIST DECISION-MAKING LITERATURE

Previous studies on responses of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) firms to policy changes mainly focus on the impact of government policies on foreign investment flows in a country or in a province. So far, there has been no research on how Foreign Direct Investment enterprises, which are investing in Vietnam, react to unexpected changes in policies. We focus on studying some main factors affecting the behavior of FDI firms in Vietnam when the policy changes adversely. Using the data set of the annual Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) survey with the foreign invested firms (FIFs) in Vietnam for 4 years from 2013 to 2016, the study shows that enterprises’ behaviors strongly depend on the capacity to predict changes in government policies. The policy changes directly affect business activities, so policymakers need to make a long-term stability plan to attract the FIFs. In addition, the FIFs tend to choose moving production to another country or coordinating with other businesses if local leaders are highly transparent. The opposite is true for the proactivity. In the case that local leaders are proactive, it helps FIFs feel secure to invest with enthusiastic support so the desire to move location or coordinate with other businesses is reduced. On the other hand, the FIFs are more likely to employ both formal and informal diplomacy if there is an increase in the number of employees, time spent interacting with government officers and prediction about policy change. Moreover, it is more likely to employ formal diplomacy than informal diplomacy in the case of FIFs’ size expanding. Similar to that case, it is true when increasing the capability of predicting harmful policy changes. We also find that the tendency of choosing formal diplomacy of foreign leaders is higher than that of Vietnamese leaders.

Tearing down the ‘buckskin curtain’: domestic policy-making and Indigenous intellectuals in the Cold War United States and Canada

ABSTRACTNorth American Indigenous peoples remain overlooked in Cold War scholarship, despite being tangibly impacted by this global conflict. This article presents a study of four foundational texts, to argue that the Cold War shaped the introduction of new destructive Indian policies in the United States and Canada, which aimed to eradicate the special legal status of Indigenous peoples. Moreover, Indigenous activist intellectuals like Vine Deloria, Jr. and Harold Cardinal successfully embedded their writing in the Cold War context of decolonisation and anti-communism to challenge harmful federal policy and the image of the United States and Canada as upholding ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’.

Speaking truth to power: political advisers’ and civil servants’ responses to perceived harmful policy proposals

AbstractHow are civil servants and politically appointed advisers likely to respond to policy proposals that they believe will harm their countries severely even if they are legal? Based on the different loyalties and roles of political advisors (PA) and civil servants (CS), we hypothesise that (1) PAs are more likely to voice internally, (2) CSs are more likely to voice externally and (3) CSs in functionally politicised systems are more likely to stay silent. These hypotheses are tested on – and partially supported by – data collected through two surveys directed to the ministerial staffs in Denmark and Sweden. PAs are more likely to voice internally, but none of the two groups is particularly keen to voice externally. The propensity to voice concerns in case of perceived harmful policy proposals depends on the kind as well as the level of politicisation.

Are World Leaders Loss Averse?

We focus on the preferences of an extremely salient group of highly-experienced individuals who are entrusted with making decisions that affect the lives of millions of their citizens, heads of government. We test for the presence of a fundamental behavioral bias, loss aversion, in the way heads of government choose decision rules for international organizations. If loss aversion disappears with experience and high-stakes it should not exhibited in this context. Loss averse leaders choose decision rules that oversupply negative (blocking) power at the expense of positive power (to initiate affirmative action), causing welfare losses through harmful policy persistence and reform deadlocks. We find evidence of significant loss aversion (λ = 4:4) in the Qualified Majority rule in the Treaty of Lisbon, when understood as a Nash bargaining outcome. World leaders may be more loss averse than the populous they represent.

The “Pliability” of Criminological Analyses: Assessing Bias in Regression Estimates Using Monte Carlo Simulations

When biased coefficient and standard error estimates are published, they can result in inaccurate findings which might motivate ineffective—or harmful—policy choices and reduce the legitimacy of social scientific research. In this paper, we demonstrate how Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) can be used to evaluate potential bias in estimates. We define estimation bias and provide an overview of MCS, which involves three steps. First, data are generated according to model parameters and assumptions. Second, the data are analyzed and estimates are saved. Third, these two steps are repeated 2500 times to yield a distribution of estimates to compare with the original estimates. In our first example of using MCS to evaluate potential bias, we use data from a previous project to estimate an OLS regression model and then assess the consistency of estimates. In our second example, we evaluate published regression model estimates. In the third example, we employ experimental methodology with MCS to show how a correlation estimate would vary if there was a moderating effect of a third variable. Standard error estimates in the first example exhibited severe bias due to violated assumptions. The second example showed model estimates were largely unbiased. The third example showed that the strength of a moderating effect is positively related to correlation estimate bias. Although MCS have been increasingly used by criminologists, they could be used by a broader body of researchers, instructors, and policymakers to assess and ensure the reliability of reported findings.

Does the Court of Justice own the Treaties? Interpretative pluralism as a solution to over‐constitutionalisation

AbstractIt is often assumed that Court of Justice interpretations of EU law are definitive and binding. However, this conflicts with conventional ideas about the trias politica, as well as with the principle of conferral, and rests on no more than the Court's own assertion. It also has harmful policy consequences, forcing national courts into constitutional resistance and, in claiming to fix the meaning of the Treaties, smothering Union politics. Interpretative pluralism, by contrast, insists on the possibility of diverging interpretations. That allows for wider participation in the construction of EU law, while retaining the integrity of Union law through commitment to shared texts and a balance of power between institutions. Institutional disagreements are reframed, not as conflicts between legal orders, but as conflicts about the meaning of a shared one. This approach is more profoundly integrative than the Court's top‐down approach, and also allows for greater diversity and experiment.

Local Government Entrepreneurship in China: A Public Policy Perspective

While local government entrepreneurship has long been regarded as one of the main drivers of China’s economic growth, it has increasingly been recognised as a potential source of a set of harmful policy consequences in recent years, such as rising government debt crises, pervasive corruption and environmental degradation. These criticisms have prompted questions about what types of entrepreneurship might be more desirable, and which incentive structures might be necessary to pave the way for the right kind of local government entrepreneurship. The articles in this special issue focus on new developments in local government entrepreneurship from a public policy perspective. Collectively, they explore the normative dimensions of local government entrepreneurship in China, with an emphasis on necessary policy changes to shape local government entrepreneurship in contributing to economic growth as well as other key policy objectives.

URBAN special edition

Currently, neoliberalism serves as the foundation for the majority of educational reform efforts. Neoliberal approaches repeatedly privilege the value of ‘expert’ knowledge in framing policy and practice, resulting in limited opportunities for the impact of local community knowledge and experience on teaching and learning. While the neoliberal context narrows what counts as learning, participatory action research (PAR), youth-led participatory action research (YPAR), and engaged scholarship emphasize collaborative problem-solving among community organizations and schools that can expose the dangers of neoliberal trends in education. The articles in this special edition, titled ‘Challenging Neoliberal Reforms through Collaborative, Community Engaged Research,’ illuminate diverse approaches to collaborative research aimed at fostering a more inclusive, productive dialog regarding the impact and possibilities for educational reforms in K-16 schools. The authors identify the specific neoliberal reforms that shape their contexts, the nature of their collaborative research partnerships and methods, and the kinds of inroads their coalitions are making in altering harmful neoliberal policy implementations. Individually and collectively, the authors speak about new ways of framing the impact of neoliberalism on local communities. They provide alternative designs for educational policies.

Introduction: Local Government Entrepreneurship in China: A Public Policy Perspective

While local government entrepreneurship has long been regarded as one of the main drivers of China’s economic growth, it has increasingly been recognised as a potential source of a set of harmful policy consequences in recent years, such as rising government debt crises, pervasive corruption and environmental degradation. These criticisms have prompted questions about what types of entrepreneurship might be more desirable, and which incentive structures might be necessary to pave the way for the right kind of local government entrepreneurship. The articles in this special issue focus on new developments in local government entrepreneurship from a public policy perspective. Collectively, they explore the normative dimensions of local government entrepreneurship in China, with an emphasis on necessary policy changes to shape local government entrepreneurship in contributing to economic growth as well as other key policy objectives.

AMA House of Delegates Backs End to Ban on Transgender Individuals Serving in Military

AMA House of Delegates Backs End to Ban on Transgender Individuals Serving in Military

Jean Paton and the struggle to reform American adoption

Pioneering adoption activist Jean Paton (1908-2002) fought effectively for 50 years to reform American adoption. Paton gave adult adoptees a voice and provided them with a healthy self-image; facilitated thousands of meetings between adult adoptees and their families of origin; fought to open sealed adoption records; and indefatigably explained the adoption experience to a wider public. Paton's ceaseless activity created the preconditions for the explosive emergence of the adoption reform movement in the 1970s. She was also instrumental in the formation of two of the movement's most vital organisations, Concerned United Birthparents and the American Adoption Congress. Using previously unexamined sources, historian E. Wayne Carp offers the first-ever biography of Jean Paton. Beginning in 1951, Paton, a twice-adopted, middle-aged ex-social worker, dedicated her life to overcoming American society's prejudices against adult adoptees and women who give birth out of wedlock. Her unflagging efforts over the next five decades helped reverse social workers' harmful policy and practice concerning adoption and sealed adoption records and change lawmakers' enactment of laws prejudicial to adult adoptees and birth mothers, struggles that continue to this day.