Gutenberg-Richter Research Articles

Drivers to seismic hazard curve slope

AbstractThe slope of a linear approximation of a probabilistic seismic hazard curve, when it is represented in the log‐log scale, is a key parameter for seismic risk assessment based on closed‐form solutions, and other applications. On the other hand, it is observed that different hazard models can provide, at the same site, comparable ground shaking, yet appreciably different slopes for the same exceedance return period. Moreover, the slope at a given return period can increase or decrease from low‐ to high‐hazardous sites, depending on the models the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is based on. In the study, the sensitivity of the slope to the main model components involved in PSHA was explored, that is: the earthquake rate, the magnitude and source‐to‐site distance distributions, and the value of the residual of ground motion models (GMM). With reference to a generic site, affected by an ideal seismic source zone, where magnitude follows the Gutenberg‐Richter (G‐R) relationship, it was found that the local slope of hazard curve increases with the following factors in descending order of importance: (i) increasing distance from the source; (ii) decreasing maximum magnitude and increasing ‐value of the G‐R model; (iii) increasing rate of earthquakes of interest; (iv) increasing residual of the GMM. These results help explain the systematic differences in hazard curve slopes found in three authoritative hazard models for Italy, and the related impact on simplified risk assessment.

A Bayesian Merging of Earthquake Magnitudes Determined by Multiple Seismic Networks

Abstract We introduce a Bayesian algorithm designed to integrate earthquake magnitudes of the same type reported by various seismic networks, aiming to create unified and standardized catalogs suitable for widespread use. The fundamental concept underpinning this algorithm is the utilization of the inherent consistency within each individual network’s magnitude determination process. Assuming that the magnitudes for an earthquake measured by all networks conform to a Gaussian distribution, with a linear function of the unknown true magnitude serving as its mean, we derive the posterior probability distribution of the true magnitude under four different assumptions for the prior distribution: the uninformative uniform distribution, the unbounded Gutenberg–Richter (GR) magnitude–frequency law, the GR magnitude–frequency relationship restricted by the detection rate, and the truncated GR law as priors. We assess the robustness of the method by a test on several synthetic catalogs and then use it to merge the catalogs compiled by five seismic networks in Italy. The results demonstrate that our proposed magnitude-merging algorithm effectively combines the catalogs, resulting in robust and unified data sets that are suitable for seismic hazard assessment and seismicity analysis.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Sitamarhi near the Central Himalayan Region

ABSTRACT Sitamarhi, situated in the North-Bihar region of the Himalayan foothills is one of the seismically vulnerable regions of India. This region faced several devastating earthquakes, such as the 1934 and 1988 Bihar Nepal earthquake and the 2015 Nepal earthquake due to the movement of tectonic plates. The purpose of the present study is to exhibit the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) values based on the probabilistic seismic hazard method using different seismotectonic parameters. The Gutenberg Richter (G-R) seismicity parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ were estimated on the basis of regional earthquake magnitude data for the studied region. Regional earthquakes data were taken from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), International Seismological Centre (ISC), Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), and Seismotectonic Atlas of India. The region of interest for the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is within a 500 km radius considering past seismicity and 62 seismotectonic sources which were identified in the study area. Large-scale geological features were utilised to describe the regional seismic source zones, which were used to derive the relationship between return period and ground motion parameters. Estimated PGA values are 0.92g for 2% and 0.68g for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years time period, respectively. This research infer that the West Patna fault (WPF) and Sitamarhi fault (SMF) are the two maximum contributors in PGA for the Sitamarhi region.

Stress spatial distributions, the Gutenberg–Richter and Omori–Utsu laws

We investigate several earthquake models in one and two dimensions of space and analyze in these models the stress spatial distribution. We show that the statistical properties of stress distribution are responsible for the distribution of earthquake magnitudes, as described by the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) law. A series of predictions is made based on the analogies between the stress profile and one-dimensional random curves or two-dimensional random surfaces. These predictions include the b-value, which determines the ratio of small to large seismic events and, in two-dimensional models, we predict the existence of aftershocks and their temporal distribution, known as the Omori–Utsu law. Both the GR and Omori–Utsu law are properties which have been extensively validated by earthquake observations in nature.

The Main Factors Controlling Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Variability Due to Epistemic Uncertainty in Greece: Results from a One-Factor-at-a-Time Analysis

Abstract We present a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity study for the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in Greece. The analysis examines several PSHA controlling factors, such as seismic source model (geometry, etc.), active tectonics (faulting type, etc.), as well as the employed ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). We have considered only peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) for a typical PSHA scenario (10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr). OFAT results are presented using Tornado diagrams for 42 major urban centers of Greece that cover the study area revealing regions of different PSHA uncertainty. In general, the most critical factors controlling PSHA uncertainties are the Gutenberg–Richter (G-R) parameters (a and b), as well as the employed GMPE. However, significant spatial variability of these factors is observed with large differences between high- and low-seismicity regions, as well as between PGA and PGV. The results not only provide an objective assessment of the variability of PSHA uncertainties but also verify the need for additional work to minimize epistemic PSHA uncertainties, focusing on the most critical factors that control PSHA.

Acoustic Emission Characteristics of Fault Activation under the Influence of Coal Roadway Driving

To investigate the impact of coal roadway excavation on the fault activity, this study examined the acoustic emission (AE) count, energy characteristics, and evolution of the AE b‐value during the tunneling process across a fault by utilizing field data from the KSA outburst early warning system and applying the Gutenberg–Richter (G‐R) law. The results showed the following. In terms of the time span, the AE count and energy showed trends of first increasing and then decreasing during the excavation of a coal roadway through a fault. AE events as the driving face passed through the fault conformed to the G‐R law. A lower b‐value corresponded to a higher frequency of high‐energy events, indicating a more pronounced disturbance of the driving face on the fault. There was a continuous increase in the energy release from the fault and an escalating level of hazard associated with the driving face. The variation of the b‐value during the passage of the driving face across the fault could be delineated into three distinct stages, namely, a fluctuation stage, a decline stage, and a recovery stage. In the fluctuation stage, the driving work exerted minimal influence on the fault behavior. The decline stage represented the most active phase for fault activity, with a heightened risk to the driving face. Finally, in the recovery stage, as the distance between the driving face and the fault increased, there was a gradual reduction in the impact of the fault activity on the working face operations.

Evaluating the incompleteness magnitude using an unbiased estimate of the b value

SUMMARY The evaluation of the b value of the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) law, for a sample composed of n earthquakes, presents a systematic positive bias δb which is proportional to 1/n . In this study, we show how to incorporate in δb the bias introduced by deviations from the GR law. More precisely we show that δb is proportional to the square of the variability coefficient CV, defined as the ratio between the standard deviation of the magnitude distribution and its mean value. When the magnitude distribution follows the GR law CV = 1 and this allows us to introduce a new graphical procedure, based on the dependence of b on n, which allows us to identify the incompleteness magnitude mc as the threshold magnitude leading to CV = 1. The method is tested on synthetic catalogues and it is applied to estimate mc in Southern California, Japan and New Zealand.

Characteristic versus Gutenberg–Richter Nucleation-Based Magnitude–Frequency Distributions in the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022

Abstract Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis requires a seismicity rate model, or in other words, a forecast of earthquake rates. In the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022, the seismicity rate model is constructed through independent forecasts of earthquakes on mapped faults and earthquakes distributed over cells in a spatial grid. Here, we explore the seismicity rate model for upper plate (hypocenter ≥ 40 km) events, to investigate the shape of magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) considering events nucleating (or for which the hypocenters are located) within individual fault zone. We find that more than 80% of the fault zones have MFDs that are better described by a Gutenberg–Richter (GR) distribution, instead of a characteristic distribution (i.e., rates of larger magnitudes much higher than the GR trend). Furthermore, the MFD classifications are neither influenced by time-dependent (and time-independent) considerations nor directly affected by the size (or area) of the fault zones. Fault zones with faster slip rates (>20 mm/yr) exhibit characteristic MFDs, whereas those with slower slip rates may or may not. Although multifault ruptures are prevalent in the characteristic distributions, large maximum magnitude (Mw >8.0) plays a pivotal role producing a characteristic MFD. On the other hand, physically unconnected multifault ruptures (i.e., involving rupture jumps ≥ 10 km) are mostly observed with GR distributions.

Impact of printing orientation on inter and intra-layer bonds in 3D printed thermoplastic elastomers: A study using acoustic emission and tensile tests

The use of the Material Extrusion technique with Thermoplastic Elastomers is currently growing because of the large number of benefits of this family of materials. They are processable materials with high flexibility, which makes them very useful, for example, in biomedical applications that require flexible objects with complex geometries. This study aims to characterize a specific polymer, namely polyether-block-amide-based polymer (PEBA), by analyzing its anisotropic behavior in printed samples and investigating the mechanical properties based on different printing orientations. Three orientations (X, Y, and Z) were used to relate the printing orientation to the type of bonds formed in the samples: intra-layer bonds, inter-layer bonds, and the deposited filament. Tensile tests following ASTM D638 were conducted to measure sample rigidity, while Acoustic Emission, an advanced Non-Destructive Technique, was employed to examine the trend of the failure process. The presence of voids was also observed to assess printing quality, which is influenced by the printing orientation and alters the quality of bonds. The results revealed that samples printed horizontally exhibited higher Young’s Modulus values and fewer voids in the inner parts. Vertically printed samples displayed inferior mechanical properties and a greater number of voids. Consequently, the intra-layer yielded better bond formation and minimized voids. Acoustic Emission analysis corroborated these findings by demonstrating distinct energy distribution patterns among the different printing orientations. Hits were concentrated at maximum stresses, primarily observed in the vertically printed samples, which experienced macroscopic failure. Furthermore, this particular specimen exhibited a vertical asymptote near the maximum stress level. The analysis of the energy of Acoustic Emission hits demonstrated a reasonably good fit with the Gutenberg-Richter (GBR) law based on the printing direction.

Estimating the Magnitude of Completeness of Earthquake Catalogs Using a Simple Random Variable Transformation

Abstract The estimation of the magnitude of completeness for a seismic catalog is the starting point for most of the seismological statistical analyses. It is important, in particular, for the estimation of the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) law parameters. This law corresponds to an exponential distribution of the magnitudes. The recent studies have shown that the proper method to estimate the completeness is to check the exponentiality of the data. Here, we try to improve this method using a simple random variable transformation, which makes the method more robust in the case of catalogs with magnitudes coming from exponential distributions with different parameters, that is, catalogs with different b-values of the GR law.

Seismicity parameters dependence on main shock-induced co-seismic stress

SUMMARY The Gutenberg–Richter (GR) and the Omori–Utsu (OU) law describe the earthquakes’ energy release and temporal clustering and are thus of great importance for seismic hazard assessment. Motivated by experimental results, which indicate stress-dependent parameters, we consider a combined global data set of 127 main shock–aftershock sequences and perform a systematic study of the relationship between main shock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity patterns. For this purpose, we calculate space-dependent Coulomb Stress (ΔCFS) and alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the surrounding of the main shocks. Our results indicate a clear positive correlation between the GR b-value and the induced stress, contrasting expectations from laboratory experiments and suggesting a crucial role of structural heterogeneity and strength variations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the OU parameters c and p systematically decrease for increasing stress changes. Our partly unexpected findings can have an important impact on future estimations of the aftershock hazard.

Advanced Unified Earthquake Catalog for North East India

Northeast India is one of the world’s most seismically active regions. The event data included in this research for the period 1737–2012 is mostly obtained from worldwide database agencies such as ISC, NEIC, and GCMT. Historical seismicity is collected from published and unpublished documents and some earthquake events are collected from the Indian Meteorological Department Bulletins. As the Mw scale is developed and validated in the southern California region and overestimates the smaller magnitude earthquakes, therefore, recent literature suggested an improved version of the seismic moment magnitude scale (Mwg) applicable for the entire globe considering both long- and short-period frequency-spectra using modern instrumental data. To update the earthquake catalog of Northeast India, we prepared empirical relationships between different magnitudes to Mwg using robust statistical General Orthogonal Regression. A procedure is also suggested for converting different earthquake sizes towards seismic moment scale. The Magnitude of Completeness (Mc) and the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) recurrence parameter values for the declustered homogenized catalog in four time periods, namely 1737–1963, 1964–1990, 1964–2000, and 1964–2012, have been computed. Our analysis suggests that the use of the Mwg scale improves seismicity parameters ‘b’ up to 30%, ‘a’ up to 17%, and ‘Mc’ up to 18% for the Northeast India region. A complete unified earthquake catalog in terms of advanced seismic moment magnitude scale could help understand seismicity and earthquake engineering studies of the region.

Physics-Based Forecasting of Induced Seismicity at Groningen Gas Field, The Netherlands: Post Hoc Evaluation and Forecast Update

Abstract Induced seismicity due to natural gas extraction from the Groningen reservoir, The Netherlands, has been occurring since the early 1990s. Prospective forecasts of the possible maximum earthquake magnitude for different gas extraction scenarios have previously been published. However, their accuracy and continued relevance are unknown. Here, we evaluate our prior Groningen seismicity forecast and propose a revised model. We compare the forecast to earthquakes that occurred after its publication, between 1 February 2017 and 1 July 2022. We used volume scaling to account for actual gas extraction being 35% less than considered in the forecast. After this correction, we found that the forecast slightly underestimated the number of M ≥2.5 events. However, it was consistent with the largest event in that period, an M 3.4. Then, we updated the forecast model for a new depressurization scenario, testing its pseudoprospective (out-of-sample) performance using L-test and N-test. This revision considered two possible magnitude–frequency distributions (MFD): (1) tapered Gutenberg–Richter (GR), in which induced ruptures are confined within the reservoir, and (2) unbounded GR, in which ruptures can propagate into the underburden. A tapered GR is the more likely scenario due to clear rollover in the MFD and a lack of events beneath the reservoir. However, we cannot exclude the possibility of an unbounded GR, because direct stress measurements in the underburden are not currently available. For the period 2021–2030, this new forecast suggests a 1% likelihood that the largest event will exceed M 3.8 for the tapered model and M 5.4 for the unbounded model.

Seismic hazard analysis of Silchar city located in North East India

North East India is a highly seismically active zone of India due to the collision tectonics between the Indian and the Eurasian plate in the north and subduction tectonics along the Indo-Myanmar range (IMR) in the east. It is utmost important to investigate the seismicity of this region along with uniform hazard spectra (UHS). In this paper, seismic hazard study has been performed at the Silchar district headquarters of Assam state, located in North East India. The earthquake data have been collected from various agencies from 1762 to 2020 and the fault data has been collected from seismotectonic atlas (SEISAT). Earthquake and fault data are superimposed on the Northeast India map using MapInfo software. The fault zone is defined based upon the earthquake’s density near the fault. Seismicity parameters and maximum magnitude have been estimated using Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship. The best-fitted ground motion equation is considered. The outcome is represented in terms of controlling source, seismic hazard curve and UHS for Silchar city with varying ground motions. Finally, the results are presented as PGA based upon DSHA and PSHA methods. The effect of Importance Factor (I) and Response reduction factor (R) have been investigated by comparing UHS with IS: 1893-2016 code response spectra.

The temporal evolution of seismicity and variability of b-values along the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault System

Abstract The Vienna Basin Transfer Fault System (VBTFS) is the most active fault system in the region between the Eastern Alps, the western Carpathians and the Pannonian Basin. The spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes along the fault system shows a heterogeneous pattern including a long-time decay of seismicity at the northern part of the VBTFS, which was interpreted to result from a long aftershock sequence subsequent to the 1906 Dobrá Voda earthquake (M=5.7). In this paper we investigate if other segments of the VBTFS display similar long-term declines of seismicity that might indicate long aftershock sequences following strong, yet unrecorded, earthquakes in historical times. In order to analyse the distribution of seismicity, the VBTFS is divided into arbitrary segments of about 50 km length each. The segments are chosen to overlap each other to avoid missing information from neighbouring segments due to arbitrarily selected segment boundaries. For each segment we analyse the temporal evolution of seismicity and calculate the parameters of the corresponding Gutenberg-Richter (GR) relation. The temporal seismicity patterns revealed from the segments covering the Dobrá Voda area confirm the protracted aftershock sequence following the 1906 earthquake. All but one of the other segments do not show temporal changes of seismicity comparable to the long-term Dobrá Voda aftershock sequence. Seismicity patterns, however, include short-term Omori-type aftershocks following moderate earthquakes such as the 2000 Ebreichsdorf earthquake (M=4.8). The segment covering the SW tip of the VBTFS revealed a 200 years long gradual decrease of the largest observed magnitudes starting with the 1794 Leoben (M=4.7) earthquake. The 1794 event is the oldest earthquake listed in the catalogue for the region under consideration. It therefore remains open if the recorded decay of seismicity results from the 1794 event, or a stronger earthquake before that time. The latter is corroborated by the low magnitude of the 1794 earthquake which would typically not be considered to cause long aftershock sequences. GR a- and b-values, calculated for the individual segments, vary significantly along the VBTFS. Values range from 0.47 to 0.86 (b-values) and 0.81 to 2.54 (a-values), respectively. Data show a significant positive correlation of a- and b-values and a coincidence of the lowest b-values with fault segments with large seismic slip deficits and very low seismicity in the last approximately 300 years. These parts of the VBTFS were previously interpreted as “locked” fault segments, which have a significant potential to release future strong earthquakes, in spite of the fact that historical and instrumentally recorded seismicity is very low. We find this interpretation corroborated by the low b-values that suggest high differential stresses for these fault segments.

Adaptive Dendritic Cell-Negative Selection Method for Earthquake Prediction

Earthquake prediction (EQP) is an extremely difficult task, which has been overcome by adopting various technologies, with no further transformation so far. The negative selection algorithm (NSA) is an artificial intelligence method based on the biological immune system. It is widely used in anomaly detection due to its advantages of requiring little normal data to detect anomalies, including historical seismic-events-based EQP. However, NSA can suffer from the undesirable effect of data drift, resulting in outdated normal patterns learned from data. To tackle this problem, the data changes must be detected and processed, stimulating fast algorithmic adaptation strategies. This study proposes a dendritic cell algorithm (DCA)-based adaptive learning method for drift detection and negative selection algorithm (DC-NSA) that dynamically adapts to new input data. First, this study adopts the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) law and other earthquake distribution laws to preprocess input data. Then, the NSA is employed for EQP, and then, the dendritic cell algorithm (DCA) is employed to detect changes to trigger gradient descent strategies and update the self-set in NSA. Finally, the proposed approach is implemented to predict the earthquakes of MW > 5 in Sichuan and the surroundings during the next month. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed DC-NSA is superior to the existing state-of-the-art EQP approaches.

Revisiting b-value for extended Kopili region of Northeast India and probabilistic estimation of seismic hazard attributes thereof

Kopili fault and its' surroundings of northeast India have remained witness to some devastating earthquakes. The complex tectonic feature of this region incurs a high seismicity rate relative to other regions. Very recently, an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 (MW) has jolted this region. Considering the persistently rising seismicity pattern of this region, the present study intends to integrate the frequency magnitude distribution of earthquakes with other pertinent seismic hazard parameters. This work presents the estimation of the return period and probability of non-exceedance of medium to large earthquakes for the Kopili fault and its' surroundings via the extreme value method. Two statistical methods, namely the Gutenberg-Richter(G-R) power law and Gumbel extreme value method (GEVM), are applied for the correct estimation of the b-value for the Kopili fault and its' surrounding region. The uniform and homogenous magnitude scale dataset consisting of 550 events observed within a limit of 350 km from the Kopili fault (1964 to 2022) are used in the study. The b-value computed using GR relation was found to be unsatisfactory (0.73) due to an inadequate dataset—thus Gumbel's extreme value method is used for the estimation of the b-value (0.97). Gumbel's extreme value method is used for the calculation of the probability of occurrence of earthquakes, return period, and the most probable earthquake magnitude for the study region. The most probable annual earthquake is found to be ∼ MW 4.99. The return period and probability of occurrence of design-based earthquakes are also calculated. The correlation between b-value, seismic moment, and fractal dimension for seismic hazard analysis is also investigated. The antithetical relationship between seismic moment and b-value is observed for the region while the deep-root character of the Kopili fault and the strong, unfractured character of the Shillong plateau is highlighted with the spatial distribution of fractal dimension in the study region.

Comparison analysis of the ETAS model with Gutenberg–Richter (GR), Tapered-GR and characteristic magnitude distributions

SUMMARY In this paper, we carry out a comparison analysis of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model for the earthquake process, embedded with the three main exponential-type distributions adopted in practical applications to describe the magnitudes of seismic events, that are, the Gutenberg–Richter (GR), the tapered Gutenberg–Richter (TGR) and the CHaracteristic (CH) frequency–magnitude distributions (FMDs). The first law is a pure-power decreasing function, while both the other two introduce a more rapid decay in the tail of the distribution: a soft taper in the TGR model and a sharp cut-off in the CH one. To perform the comparison, we first investigate some theoretical features of the ETAS model with CH-distributed magnitudes (ETAS-CH), which have not been deeply analysed in the literature as much as for ETAS-TGR and ETAS-GR. In particular, we explicitly compute the branching ratio, we analyse its asymptotics in relation to its parameters, and we derive the proper stability conditions. We then move to the comparison among the three ETAS-GR, ETAS-TGR and ETAS-CH processes, to highlight differences and similarities. This is done by carrying out both a theoretical analysis, mainly focused on the three models’ branching ratios and the relative sensitivity, and a simulation analysis of realistic synthetic catalogues to compare the processes’ numbers, events’ magnitude distribution and temporal evolution. The results we obtained show that the ETAS-TGR and ETAS-CH processes have very similar features. They both have also less restrictive non-explosion conditions than for ETAS-GR; in fact, differently from this latter case, their branching ratios exist for any value of the parameters and are lower than the one of ETAS-GR, to which they converge for large magnitudes.

A new 3-D finite-fault model of the Southwest Iceland bookshelf transform zone

SUMMARYThe largest earthquakes in Iceland occur in the South Iceland seismic zone (SISZ) and the Tjörnes fracture zone in the northeast. With the latter being primarily offshore, the seismic risk in Iceland is highest in the relatively densely populated SISZ. Past probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) efforts in Iceland have, however, been based on statistical analyses of various historical earthquake catalogues and limited ground motion models (GMMs), all subject to varying types and degrees of uncertainties. Moreover, they relied on simplistic source descriptions and largely ignored that the unique ‘bookshelf’ strike-slip fault system of the SISZ extends along the plate margins towards the west and over the entire Reykjanes Peninsula Oblique Rift (RPOR) zone. Namely, the bookshelf fault system in Southwest Iceland is twice as long as previously thought and it dominates the strain release of transcurrent plate motion in Southwest Iceland, having potentially important implications for PSHA. In this study, therefore, we propose a new 3-D finite-fault model of the Southwest Iceland bookshelf transform zone. The model has been calibrated on the basis of first principles to the rate of transcurrent plate motions across the transform zone and constrained by the salient features of the fault system geometry as reported in the literature. We model the systematic spatial variability of the seismogenic potential along the zone by its provisional subdivision into six distinct zones. The fault system model allows both deterministic and random fault locations, with each realization completely specified in terms of the maximum expected magnitude of each fault, its maximum dimensions and its long-term slip rate. The variability of the model has been estimated through sensitivity analyses of its key parameters. The total seismic moment rates produced by the fault system model are completely consistent with those reported in the literature. The new model allows the derivation of simple but self-consistent zone-specific Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relationships, and the total long-term seismic activity predicted by the new 3-D fault system model effectively explains the historical earthquake catalogue of the SISZ–RPOR transform zone in Southwest Iceland. We are therefore confident that the model can serve as the foundation for future time-independent physics-based PSHA for Southwest Iceland. Moreover, the consistency and versatility of the model allows its application in conventional approaches to PSHA, which has the potential of bridging the gap between physics-based and conventional approaches to PSHA in Southwest Iceland. Such efforts will improve our understanding of the key elements that affect the hazard, thus improving the reliability of hazard estimates, with important practical implications for the optimized assessment of seismic risk.

Review and Update on Some Connections between a Spring-Block SOC Model and Actual Seismicity in the Case of Subduction Zones.

The self-organized critical (SOC) spring-block models are accessible and powerful computational tools for the study of seismic subduction. This work aims to highlight some important findings through an integrative approach of several actual seismic properties, reproduced by using the Olami, Feder, and Christensen (OFC) SOC model and some variations of it. A few interesting updates are also included. These results encompass some properties of the power laws present in the model, such as the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law, the correlation between the parameters a and b of the linear frequency-magnitude relationship, the stepped plots for cumulative seismicity, and the distribution of the recurrence times of large earthquakes. The spring-block model has been related to other relevant properties of seismic phenomena, such as the fractal distribution of fault sizes, and can be combined with the work of Aki, who established an interesting relationship between the fractal dimension and the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. Also included is the work incorporating the idea of asperities, which allowed us to incorporate several inhomogeneous models in the spring-block automaton. Finally, the incorporation of a Ruff-Kanamori-type diagram for synthetic seismicity, which is in reasonable accordance with the original Ruff and Kanamori diagram for real seismicity, is discussed.