Gun Law Reform Research Articles

Impact of gun law reforms on rates of homicide, suicide and mass shootings in Australia

ABSTRACT FROM: Chapman S, Alpers P, Jones M. Association between gun law reforms and intentional firearm deaths in Australia, 1979–2013. JAMA 2016;316:291–299.[OpenUrl][1] Gun control is a highly topical yet polarising...

Association Between Gun Law Reforms and Intentional Firearm Deaths in Australia, 1979-2013.

Rapid-fire weapons are often used by perpetrators in mass shooting incidents. In 1996 Australia introduced major gun law reforms that included a ban on semiautomatic rifles and pump-action shotguns and rifles and also initiated a program for buyback of firearms. To determine whether enactment of the 1996 gun laws and buyback program were followed by changes in the incidence of mass firearm homicides and total firearm deaths. Observational study using Australian government statistics on deaths caused by firearms (1979-2013) and news reports of mass shootings in Australia (1979-May 2016). Changes in intentional firearm death rates were analyzed with negative binomial regression, and data on firearm-related mass killings were compared. Implementation of major national gun law reforms. Changes in mass fatal shooting incidents (defined as ≥5 victims, not including the perpetrator) and in trends of rates of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and suicides, and total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population. From 1979-1996 (before gun law reforms), 13 fatal mass shootings occurred in Australia, whereas from 1997 through May 2016 (after gun law reforms), no fatal mass shootings occurred. There was also significant change in the preexisting downward trends for rates of total firearm deaths prior to vs after gun law reform. From 1979-1996, the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9) per 100,000 population (average decline of 3% per year; annual trend, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.963-0.976), whereas from 1997-2013 (after gun law reforms), the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) per 100,000 population (average decline of 4.9% per year; annual trend, 0.951; 95% CI, 0.940-0.962), with a ratio of trends in annual death rates of 0.981 (95% CI, 0.968-0.993). There was a statistically significant acceleration in the preexisting downward trend for firearm suicide (ratio of trends, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.970-0.993), but this was not statistically significant for firearm homicide (ratio of trends, 0.975; 95% CI, 0.949-1.001). From 1979-1996, the mean annual rate of total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths was 10.6 (95% CI, 10.0-11.2) per 100,000 population (average increase of 2.1% per year; annual trend, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.016-1.026), whereas from 1997-2013, the mean annual rate was 11.8 (95% CI, 11.3-12.3) per 100,000 (average decline of 1.4% per year; annual trend, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.980-0.993), with a ratio of trends of 0.966 (95% CI, 0.958-0.973). There was no evidence of substitution of other lethal methods for suicides or homicides. Following enactment of gun law reforms in Australia in 1996, there were no mass firearm killings through May 2016. There was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997 but also a decline in total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths of a greater magnitude. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to the gun law reforms.

Australia's 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and a decade without mass shootings

BackgroundAfter a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people died, Australian governments united to remove semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles from civilian possession, as a key component...

Mental Illness and New Gun Law Reforms

The December 2012 tragedy in Newtown, Connecticut, transfixed the nation in a moment of shared grief for 20 small children and 6 adults who died in a merciless hail of bullets. The weeks since have brought numerous federal and state policy proposals to curb gun violence. Whether these crisis-driven reforms can help inch society toward the goal of reducing firearm-related deaths, the new laws' broader social consequences could long outlast the memory of what happened at Sandy Hook Elementary School. Policy makers would do well to pause and think them through.

Interpreting Risk Factors for Violence in Australia

Back to table of contents Previous article Next article LettersFull AccessInterpreting Risk Factors for Violence in AustraliaSamara McPhedran, Ph.D., and Pooja Singh, B.A.Samara McPhedranSearch for more papers by this author, Ph.D., and Pooja SinghSearch for more papers by this author, B.A.Published Online:13 Jan 2015https://doi.org/10.1176/ps.62.11.pss6211_1393AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail To the Editor: We commend Dr. Nielssen and colleagues (1) on their thoughtful study of risk factors for homicide and other violence in first-episode psychosis that appeared in the July issue. This research adds to a considerable body of work highlighting the need for early intervention services and comprehensive treatment and support for persons with severe mental illness.However, given the extremely small sample associated with firearms misuse (16 out of 272 cases between 1992 and 2008), we suggest that general conclusions about the availability of means are somewhat premature. We must also correct the assertion that Australia's 1996 gun laws were followed by a steady decline in the use of firearms in homicide and suicide. This claim, based in part on now-discredited work (2), overlooks the fact that homicides and suicides by firearm were both declining well before the contentious and highly politicized legislative changes occurred. Several recent studies have shown that the legislative changes did not have a significant impact on the preexisting downward trend in firearm homicide in Australia (3). Method substitution and concurrent declines in suicide by means other than firearms, along with the introduction of national suicide prevention programs, preclude drawing firm conclusions about the impact of the laws on suicide by firearm (4).Although these observations should certainly not detract from the work of Dr. Nielssen and his colleagues, they do provide a strong caution against inferring that Australia's gun laws have played any significant role in reducing the incidence of lethal violence (to self or others). The costs of administering the legislation are estimated to range between $27 and $100 million per year—or between $405 million and $1.5 billion over the 15 years since they were implemented (5). This leads inevitably to speculation on what gains could be achieved if that funding was instead directed toward early intervention and ongoing support for vulnerable Australians living with mental illness.The authors are affiliated with the International Coalition for Women in Shooting and Hunting (WiSH), New South Wales, Australia.References1 Nielssen OB , Yee NL , Millard MM , et al.: Comparison of first-episode and previously treated persons with psychosis found NGMI for a violent offense. Psychiatric Services 62:759–764, 2011 Link, Google Scholar2 McPhedran S , Baker J : A submission to the Senate Community Affairs Reference Committee Inquiry Into Suicide in Australia, 2009. Available at www.ic-wish.org/McPhedran%20Baker%20Suicide%20in%20Australia%20Senate%20Submission_Nov%2009.pdf Google Scholar3 Lee W-S , Suardi S : The Australian firearms buyback and its effect on gun deaths. Contemporary Economic Policy 28:65–79, 2010 Crossref, Google Scholar4 Klieve H , Barnes M , De Leo D : Controlling firearms use in Australia: has the 1996 gun law reform produced the decrease in rates of suicide with this method? Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology 44:285–292, 2009 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar5 National Firearms Management System Business Case Project. Canberra, Australia, Nous Group, 2007 Google Scholar FiguresReferencesCited byDetailsCited ByNone Volume 62Issue 11 November 2011Pages 1393-1393 Metrics PDF download History Published online 13 January 2015 Published in print 1 November 2011

Interpreting Risk Factors for Violence in Australia: In Reply

Back to table of contents Previous article Next article LettersFull AccessInterpreting Risk Factors for Violence in Australia: In ReplyOlav B. Nielssen, M.B.B.S., Ph.D., and Matthew M. Large, B.Sc. (Med.), M.B.B.S.Olav B. NielssenSearch for more papers by this author, M.B.B.S., Ph.D., and Matthew M. LargeSearch for more papers by this author, B.Sc. (Med.), M.B.B.S.Published Online:13 Jan 2015https://doi.org/10.1176/ps.62.11.pss6211_1393aAboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail Dr. McPhedran and Ms. Singh are correct in pointing out the small number of lethal shootings in our study—16 of the 272 mentally ill offenders used a gun (6%). However, the proportion of offenders with a history of psychiatric treatment who used a firearm was significantly lower than the proportion of patients experiencing a first-episode of psychosis (p=.014), suggesting that people with a diagnosed mental illness in New South Wales have reduced access to firearms.We do not agree that the 1996 changes to the gun laws in Australia after a notorious mass killing are unrelated to the subsequent decline in firearm deaths. Dr. McPhedran and Ms. Singh write from the perspective of the International Coalition for Women in Shooting and Hunting (http://www.ic-wish.org). However, figures obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (personal communication, Brooke Black, information consultant, Australian Bureau of Statistics, April 28, 2009) show that in the decade from 1988 to 1997, before the changes in the gun laws took effect, 240 women committed suicide using a firearm, compared with 115 in the decade from 1998 to 2007. By 2007 using a gun was a rare method of female suicide in Australia. The story for male suicide is similar. In the decade before 1997, a total of 4,128 men committed suicide using a firearm, whereas in the decade after the changes to the firearms laws the number of male suicides by firearm was 1,945. It is true that the rate of suicide by all methods has fallen from 14.7 per 100,000 in 1997 to 8.9 per 100,000 in 2007 (1). However, the decline was mainly due to reduced access to lethal means of suicide, including guns, poisonous gas, and lethal medication (1), and was not due to a decline in the number of suicide attempts or increased participation in mental health care (2).Dr. McPhedran and Ms. Singh are correct to point out that the rate of homicide was already declining in Australia before the change in the gun laws. However, the proportion of homicides by firearm has declined at a greater rate since that time (3), and the reduction in the number of firearm homicides is the main reason for the further decline in the rate of homicide in Australia to the historically low level of 1.4 per 100,000 per annum. Moreover, there were 13 mass shootings with 112 fatalities in the 15 years before 1996, and there have been none in the 15 years since.We estimate that the change in firearms laws in Australia in 1996 has already saved about 2,000 lives. On that basis alone, the money used to permanently remove 640,000 automatic and semiautomatic weapons from the community was well spent.References1 Large M , Nielssen O : Suicide in Australia: a meta-analysis of rates and methods between 1988 and 2007. Medical Journal of Australia 192:432–437, 2010 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar2 Nielssen O , Large M : National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being findings do not reflect the decline in suicide in Australia. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry 44:490–492, 2010 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar3 Chapman S , Alpers P , Agho K , et al.: Australia's 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides and a decade without mass shootings. Injury Prevention 12:365–372, 2006 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar FiguresReferencesCited byDetailsCited ByInformed Consent at Gunpoint: When Psychiatry Affects Gun Ownership2 February 2015 | Behavioral Sciences & the Law, Vol. 33, No. 2-3 Volume 62Issue 11 November 2011Pages 1393-1394 Metrics PDF download History Published online 13 January 2015 Published in print 1 November 2011

Interpreting Risk Factors for Violence in Australia: In Reply

Back to table of contents Previous article Next article LettersFull AccessInterpreting Risk Factors for Violence in Australia: In ReplyOlav B. Nielssen, M.B.B.S., Ph.D., and Matthew M. Large, B.Sc. (Med.), M.B.B.S.Olav B. NielssenSearch for more papers by this author, M.B.B.S., Ph.D., and Matthew M. LargeSearch for more papers by this author, B.Sc. (Med.), M.B.B.S.Published Online:13 Jan 2015https://doi.org/10.1176/ps.62.11.pss6211_1393aAboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail Dr. McPhedran and Ms. Singh are correct in pointing out the small number of lethal shootings in our study—16 of the 272 mentally ill offenders used a gun (6%). However, the proportion of offenders with a history of psychiatric treatment who used a firearm was significantly lower than the proportion of patients experiencing a first-episode of psychosis (p=.014), suggesting that people with a diagnosed mental illness in New South Wales have reduced access to firearms.We do not agree that the 1996 changes to the gun laws in Australia after a notorious mass killing are unrelated to the subsequent decline in firearm deaths. Dr. McPhedran and Ms. Singh write from the perspective of the International Coalition for Women in Shooting and Hunting (http://www.ic-wish.org). However, figures obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (personal communication, Brooke Black, information consultant, Australian Bureau of Statistics, April 28, 2009) show that in the decade from 1988 to 1997, before the changes in the gun laws took effect, 240 women committed suicide using a firearm, compared with 115 in the decade from 1998 to 2007. By 2007 using a gun was a rare method of female suicide in Australia. The story for male suicide is similar. In the decade before 1997, a total of 4,128 men committed suicide using a firearm, whereas in the decade after the changes to the firearms laws the number of male suicides by firearm was 1,945. It is true that the rate of suicide by all methods has fallen from 14.7 per 100,000 in 1997 to 8.9 per 100,000 in 2007 (1). However, the decline was mainly due to reduced access to lethal means of suicide, including guns, poisonous gas, and lethal medication (1), and was not due to a decline in the number of suicide attempts or increased participation in mental health care (2).Dr. McPhedran and Ms. Singh are correct to point out that the rate of homicide was already declining in Australia before the change in the gun laws. However, the proportion of homicides by firearm has declined at a greater rate since that time (3), and the reduction in the number of firearm homicides is the main reason for the further decline in the rate of homicide in Australia to the historically low level of 1.4 per 100,000 per annum. Moreover, there were 13 mass shootings with 112 fatalities in the 15 years before 1996, and there have been none in the 15 years since.We estimate that the change in firearms laws in Australia in 1996 has already saved about 2,000 lives. On that basis alone, the money used to permanently remove 640,000 automatic and semiautomatic weapons from the community was well spent.References1 Large M , Nielssen O : Suicide in Australia: a meta-analysis of rates and methods between 1988 and 2007. Medical Journal of Australia 192:432–437, 2010 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar2 Nielssen O , Large M : National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being findings do not reflect the decline in suicide in Australia. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry 44:490–492, 2010 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar3 Chapman S , Alpers P , Agho K , et al.: Australia's 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides and a decade without mass shootings. Injury Prevention 12:365–372, 2006 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar FiguresReferencesCited byDetailsCited ByInformed Consent at Gunpoint: When Psychiatry Affects Gun Ownership2 February 2015 | Behavioral Sciences & the Law, Vol. 33, No. 2-3 Volume 62Issue 11 November 2011Pages 1393-1394 Metrics PDF download History Published online 13 January 2015 Published in print 1 November 2011

Controlling firearms use in Australia: has the 1996 gun law reform produced the decrease in rates of suicide with this method?

Observed reductions in firearm suicides in Australia have been linked to the 1997 national firearms agreement (NFA) introduced following the 1996 Port Arthur massacre. The NFA placed strong access restrictions on firearms. To assess the impact of legislative restrictions on the incidence of firearm suicide in Queensland and explore alternative or contributory factors behind observed declines. The Queensland suicide register (QSR) provided detailed information on all male suicides in Queensland (1990-2004), with additional data for Australia (1968-2004) accessed from other official sources. Trends in suicide rates pre/post NFA, and in method selection, were assessed using negative binomial regressions. Changing method selection patterns were examined using a cohort analysis of 5 years of age classes for Australian males. The observed reduction in firearms suicides was initiated prior to the 1997 introduction of the NFA in Queensland and Australia, with a clear decline observed in Australian figures from 1988. No significant difference was found in the rate pre/post the introduction of the NFA in Queensland; however, a significant difference was found for Australian data, the quality of which is noticeably less satisfactory. A marked age-difference in method choice was observed through a cohort analysis demonstrating both time and age influences. Within sequential birth cohorts, rates of firearms suicides decreased in younger males but increased in hanging suicides; this trend was far less marked in older males. The implemented restrictions may not be responsible for the observed reductions in firearms suicide. Data suggest that a change in social and cultural attitudes could have contributed to the shift in method preference.

Australia’s 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and a decade without mass shootings

Background: After a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people died, Australian governments united to remove semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles from civilian possession, as a key...

Disaster plans and prevention

The Sunday afternoon murder in April of 35 people and the wounding of another 18 by a lone gunman at Tasmania's Port Arthur tourist site unleashed a programme of unprecedented gun law reform in Australia. If prime minister John Howard and the eight state and territory police ministers have their way, within a few months all parliaments will have legislated for uniform national gun laws. These represent the local gun lobby's worst nightmare: linked licensing of the person who wants to shoot and the registration of his or her guns; a ban on all semiautomatic rifles and pump action shotguns; the end of private owner-to-owner gun sales; and tougher definitions and documentation procedures for both “reason” …