Gun Homicides Research Articles

Beginning the Healing Journey

Storytelling is a pathway to healing for youth, families, and communities impacted by gun violence. It allows survivors to re-story the devastation and trauma into narratives that re-member the person lost and find purpose and meaning from the painful experience. Tree of Life is a group storytelling intervention developed in Southern Africa and rooted in narrative traditions that is emerging as a powerful starting point for addressing the traumatic impact of homicide in Chicago. This case study weaves together the narrative of the first author in her work at Chicago Survivors with research on gun violence, homicide bereavement, and Tree of Life in order to make an argument for its relevance in treating survivors of community gun violence in the United States. We contend that Tree of Life has potential to work across systems levels as youth and families find purpose through the pain generated from violent loss. We encourage social work clinicians to bring narrative practices and the Tree of Life approach into their practice and challenge social work researchers to develop partnerships with community organizations such as Chicago Survivors to develop a research base for this promising approach.

Driven by Purpose: Exploring Spirituality in Black Mothers’ Coping with Loss of Children to Gun Homicide

The death of a Black child to gun homicide presents unique and ongoing coping challenges for Black parents. Current studies have provided insights into the role of spirituality in facilitating adjustment after homicide loss. However, the extent to which spirituality serves as a viable coping resource for Black mothers, who are disproportionately affected by gun homicide deaths of their children, remains unexplored. This exploratory phenomenological study explored the role of spirituality as a healing resource in 15 Black mothers’ grief experiences following the loss of their children to gun homicide. Thematic analysis revealed the role of spirituality in helping Black mothers find purpose in their loss. Following the loss of their children, mothers’ spiritual values enabled them to come to the realization that the deaths served a purpose. Spirituality served as the fuel to strengthen and renew their purpose in their grief journey. Gun homicide grief experience is an entanglement of systemic inequality and racial oppression. Exploring spirituality as a coping resource in the grieving experiences of Black survivors serves as an opportunity for enhancing community-based, culturally relevant, and spiritually-informed interventions, to adequately meet their coping needs.

Using the Socio-Ecological Model to Understand Increased Risk of Gun Violence in the African American Community.

Gun violence is a major public health issue of growing concern in the United States (U.S.) with 48,830 lives lost to gun related violence in 2021, documenting the highest number of gun related homicides and suicides ever recorded. The African American community is disproportionately impacted by gun violence and members of this community are almost 14x more likely to die by gun homicide than their white counterparts. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has identified a socio-ecological framework as a lens through which to better understand violence and inform potential prevention strategies to address it. This model identifies four levels (individual, relationship, community, societal) which help to enhance our understanding of the complex interplay between individuals and their environments. Here, we use this model to understand why the African American community experiences elevated risk of gun violence in the U.S. and propose strategies for prevention. Understanding the issue of gun violence beyond individual level risk, this analysis highlights the interplay between multiple levels including the ways in which societal level factors influence violence. While this paper provides a lens through which to understand the multi-leveled factors that contribute to gun violence in the African American community, it also serves as a call to action for policymakers, scholars, and agencies to develop culturally informed policy and programming efforts specific to those who are most impacted.

Community exposure to gun homicide and adolescents'educational aspirations.

Witnessing violence and violent victimization have detrimental effects on adolescents'emotional functioning and ability to envision and plan for their futures. However, research is limited on the impact of violence that occurs in adolescents'communities-whether or not it was witnessed or experienced firsthand. This paper investigated the associations between community exposure to gun homicide and adolescents'high school and college graduation aspirations. We analyzed data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 3031), a cohort study of children born 1998-2000 in 20 large US cities, merged with incident-level data on deadly gun violence from the Gun Violence Archive (2014-2017). Outcomes were reported by adolescents (girls and boys) during wave 6 (2014-2017) of the study, conducted when the children were 15 years of age. We employed ordinary least squares regression, ordered logistic regression, and multilevel stratification to examine the average and heterogeneous impacts of community exposure to gun homicide on adolescents'educational aspirations. Community exposure to gun homicide was associated with reduced high school graduation aspirations, particularly among adolescents with the lowest risk of exposure to gun homicide. Gun homicide exposure was also associated with increased college graduation aspirations; this association was concentrated among adolescents with moderate-high risk of exposure. Given the importance of education for job opportunities and the better health that accompanies education and occupational attainment, preventing early exposure to gun violence and providing institutional supports to help adolescents facing adversity realize their goals is essential to their long-term health and success.

Firearm availability and police shootings of citizens: a city level analysis of fatal and injurious shootings in California and Florida

BackgroundA growing body of research has found a link between firearm availability and police shootings of citizens across place. The problem, however, is that the previous studies on the topic tend to suffer from several limitations: a near exclusive focus on citizen fatalities, units of analysis at the state or county levels, and a variety of proxy measures tapping into community-level firearm access. The current study set out to address these issues by examining the relationship between different forms of firearm availability and both fatal and nonfatal injurious police shootings of citizens at the city level.MethodsMore specifically, it merged The Trace’s “Missing Pieces” measures of guns reported lost and stolen to police as well as licensed firearms dealers across jurisdictions from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives as proxies for firearm availability with data on police shootings of citizens in California and Florida from California’s URSUS system and the Tampa Bay Times’ “Why Cops Shoot” database, respectively. Negative binomial regression analyses were performed on a sample of 253 cities across the two states and a sub-sample of cities with licensed firearms dealers.ResultsFindings uncovered a small positive association between rates of federally licensed guns stores and the number citizens shot by police as well as police shooting incidents while controlling for several community-level measures (e.g., concentrated disadvantage, gun homicide rates). Rates of guns lost or reported stolen were generally not significantly associated with the outcome measures in the multivariate models.ConclusionsFirearm availability is a significant correlate of police shootings. Pooled counts of both citizens shot by police and police shooting incidents are heightened in jurisdictions with higher rates of licensed gun dealers, which may be due to the fact that all firearms sold in the USA first make their way to the public through these mechanisms. Such licensed gun dealers must be appropriately monitored and audited to reduce illicit behavior and prevent firearms from making their way into secondary markets. Addressing access to firearms can be meaningful for a host of gun-related morbidity and mortality outcomes, including police shootings of citizens.

The era of progress on gun mortality: State gun regulations and gun deaths from 1991-2016.

The recent rise of gun violence may lead to the perception that the problem of gun mortality in the United States is intractable. This article provides evidence to counter this perception by bringing attention to the period spanning from 1991 to 2016, when most U.S. states implemented more restrictive gun laws. Over this period, the U.S. experienced a decline in household gun ownership and gun-related deaths fell sharply. The main analysis examines the conditional association between change in gun regulations at the state level and change in gun mortality from 1991 to 2016. We include a range of robustness checks and two instrumental variables analyses to allow for stronger causal inferences. We find strong, consistent evidence supporting the hypothesis that restrictive state gun policies reduce overall gun deaths, homicides committed with a gun, and suicides committed with a gun. Each additional restrictive gun regulation a given state passed from 1991-2016 was associated with -0.21 (95% confidence interval = -0.33, -0.08) gun deaths per 100,000 residents. Further, we find that specific policies, such as background checks and waiting periods for gun purchase, were associated with lower overall gun death rates, gun homicide rates, and gun suicide rates. State regulations passed from 1991 to 2016 were associated with substantial reductions in gun mortality. We estimate that restrictive state gun policies passed in 40 states from 1991 to 2016 averted 4,297 gun deaths in 2016 alone, or roughly 11% of the total gun deaths that year.

Costs of Summer Youth Employment to Prevent Violence: an Analysis and Implementer's Tool.

Gun homicide rates have risen 35% across the USA since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. One promising intervention to prevent violent crime is summer youth employment programs (SYEPs), which provide youth with meaningful workplace experiences, prosocial engagements, and developmental opportunities during the summer months, when many otherwise lack structure. This paper presents a cost analysis of violence prevention-focused SYEPs to help implementers understand the costs generally and in their own community contexts-to advocate for adoption and secure funding of, effectively budget for, and successfully implement SYEPs. Researchers use an ingredient-based costing approach and provide a template for implementers to use and adapt for their context. SYEPs with the goal of reaching youth who are justice-involved or at risk of being victims or perpetrators of violence can cost $3331 per youth assisted, with 54% of this cost directly paid to youth through stipends. Cost per youth is driven by the intensity of the mentoring and support that community organizations provide to the program participants. Knowing the cost per youth assisted can inform further analysis, implementation, and expansion of SYEPs.

The Relationship between Concealed Carry Licenses and Firearm Homicide in the US: A Reciprocal County-Level Analysis.

This study investigates the reciprocal county-level relationship between the number of concealed carry weapon (CCW) licenses issued and homicides between 2010 and 2019 in a sample of eleven states. We utilize a random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) approach accounting for reciprocal effects over time between homicide and concealed carry licenses, providing a robust methodological approach to the study of concealed carry and homicide. The results of the RI-CLPM found that increases in the number of CCWs in 2010-2017 were statistically associated with increases in total gun homicide in 2011-2018. Reciprocally, we found some limited evidence that increases in gun homicide were associated with changes in the number of CCWs issued in subsequent years during the early part of our study period. Far from concealed carry making people safer, our model finds acute safety risks associated with expansion of legal firearm carrying. As the right to carry firearms expands in many states, we emphasize the importance of responsible gun ownership practices, and draw attention to the need to implement preventive laws that keep guns out of the hands of people with prior violent histories and from places where violence risk is amplified.

The Sixty-Year Trajectory of Homicide Clearance Rates: Toward a Better Understanding of the Great Decline

In 1962, the FBI reported a national homicide clearance rate of 93%. That rate dropped 29 points by 1994. This Great Decline has been studied and accepted as a real phenomenon but remains mysterious, as does the period of relative stability that followed. The decline was shared across regions and all city sizes but differed greatly among categories defined by victim race and weapon type. Gun homicides with Black victims accounted for most of the decline. We review the evidence on several possible explanations for the national decline, including those pertaining to case mix, investigation resources, and citizen cooperation. Our preferred explanation includes an upward trend in the standard for arrest, with strong evidence that although clearance-by-arrest rates declined, the likelihood of conviction and prison sentence actually increased. That result has obvious implications for the history of policing practice and for the validity of the usual clearance rate as a police performance measure.

Did De-policing contribute to the 2020 homicide spikes?

ABSTRACT Some scholars claimed that a reduction in proactive enforcement, in the wake of the pandemic and George Floyd’s death, caused the levels of homicide to increase across U.S. cities. Using time series data in NYC, the present study examines whether there was an increase in homicides in 2020 and analyzes an association between de-policing, as measured by the number of police stops, and various types of homicide. The increases in gun, non-domestic, and gang homicides were significantly associated with decreased police stops in the wake of the pandemic and Floyd protests. The study discusses implications for research and policy.

Policies Affecting Pregnant Women with Substance Use Disorder

Policies Affecting Pregnant Women with Substance Use Disorder

Changes in the Demographic Distribution of Chicago Gun-Homicide Decedents From 2015-2021: Violent Death Surveillance Cross-sectional Study

Homicide is one of the 5 leading causes of death in the United States for persons aged 1 to 44 years. In 2019, 75% of US homicides were by gun. Chicago has a gun-homicide rate 4 times the national average, and 90% of all homicides are by gun. The public health approach to violence prevention calls for a 4-step process, beginning with defining and monitoring the problem. Insight into the characteristics of gun-homicide decedents can help frame next steps, including identifying risk and protective factors, developing prevention and intervention strategies, and scaling effective responses. Although much is known about gun homicide because it is a long-standing, entrenched public health problem, it is useful to monitor trends to update ongoing prevention efforts. This study aimed to use public health surveillance data and methods to describe changes in the race/ethnicity, sex, and age of Chicago gun-homicide decedents from 2015-2021, in the context of year-to-year variation and an overall increase in the city's gun-homicide rate. We calculated the distribution of gun-related homicide deaths by 6 race/ethnicity and sex groups (non-Hispanic Black female, non-Hispanic White female, Hispanic female, non-Hispanic Black male, non-Hispanic White male, and Hispanic male), age in years, and age by age group. We used counts, percentages, and rates per 100,000 persons to describe the distribution of deaths among these demographic groups. Comparisons of means and column proportions with tests of significance set at P≤.05 were used to describe changes in the distribution of gun-homicide decedents over time by race-ethnicity-sex and age groups. The comparison of mean age by race-ethnicity-sex group is done using 1-way ANOVA with significance set at P≤.05. The distribution of gun-homicide decedents in Chicago by race/ethnicity and sex groups had been relatively stable from 2015 to 2021 with 2 notable exceptions: a more than doubling of the proportion of gun-homicide decedents who were non-Hispanic Black female (3.6% in 2015 to 8.2% in 2021) and an increase of 3.27 years in the mean age of gun-homicide decedents. The increase in mean age coincided with a decrease in the proportion of non-Hispanic Black male gun-homicide decedents between the ages of 15-19 and 20-24 years and, conversely, an increase in the proportion of non-Hispanic Black male gun-homicide decedents aged 25-34 years. The annual gun-homicide rate in Chicago had been increasing since 2015 with year-to-year variation. Continued monitoring of trends in the demographic makeup of gun-homicide decedents is necessary to provide the most relevant and timely information to help shape violence prevention efforts. We detected several changes that suggest a need for increased outreach and engagement marketed toward non-Hispanic Black female and non-Hispanic Black male individuals between the ages of 25-34 years.

The cumulative effect of gun homicide-related loss on neighborhood perceptions among street-identified black women and girls: A mixed-methods study

Racial disparities in death indicate that Black women and girls are disproportionately bereaved by violent loss across their lifetime. Yet the context and consequences of this loss remain largely understudied. This study examines the effect of gun homicide-related loss of relative/friends on subjective neighborhood perceptions among street-identified Black women and girls (ages 16 to 54). The study used a convergent mixed-methods design, with simultaneous quantitative and qualitative components. Data were collected from two low-income, high-crime neighborhoods in Wilmington, Delaware. Quantitative data (n = 277) included a community-based survey on health, opportunity and violence. Qualitative data (n = 50) included semi-structured interviews primarily from a sub-group of the survey population. This study used a street participatory action research (Street PAR) methodology, which included members of the target population onto the research project. OLS regression analyses predicted the effect of exposure to gun homicide on perceptions of neighborhood social environment (i.e., safety, aesthetic quality, walkability, social cohesion, and availability of healthy foods). Interviews were analyzed using grounded theory. Approximately 87% of those surveyed were exposed to a relative/friend gun homicide. All interviewees were exposed to a relative/friend gun homicide. Exposure to the gun homicide of either a relative or friend alone was nonsignificant. But the combination of exposure to gun homicides of both a relative and friend was significantly related to poorer neighborhood perceptions, even when controlling for co-occurring factors. Mixed-method findings indicate that the cumulative impact of gun homicide-related loss matters most in shaping negative neighborhood perceptions. Qualitative data suggest that losing multiple members of one's familial and peer networks to homicide is a powerful form of co-victimization that alters how participants conceptualize and navigate public space. Interventions to decrease gun violence should consider how traumatic loss has unintended consequences on the quality of life of co-victims and those in close proximity to street life.

FOREWORD Finding Balance in the Fight Against Gun Violence.

The United States is distinct among high-income countries for its problem with gun violence, with Americans 25 times more likely to be killed by gun homicide than people in other high-income countries.1 Suicides make up a majority of annual gun deaths - though that gap is closing as homicides are on the rise - and the U.S. accounts for 35% of global firearm suicides despite making up only 4% of the world's population.2 More concerning, gun deaths are only getting worse. In 2021, firearm fatalities approached 50,000, the highest we have seen in at least 40 years.3 The increase in homicides in conjunction with lower crime overall further suggests an problem specifically with guns.4 As devastating as these deaths are, it does not come close to encompassing the mass toll of America's gun violence epidemic - a toll that disproportionately impacts people of color, with the Black community suffering at the highest rates. A broader and more accurate view of what constitutes gun violence must become a part of the national discourse if we are going to develop effective strategies to combat this crisis.5.

Gun Violence, Community Harm, and Street Stops

Gun violence in the USA takes lives at an alarming pace. In 2020, there were 19,384 people killed by gunfire. Sixty-one per cent of all gun homicide victims were Black and 39% were Black males aged 18–34—a group that represented only 2% of the US population (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022). The threat of gun violence causes anxiety and trauma in the affected communities and motivates costly avoidance activities. It becomes difficult to retain existing businesses and attract new ones. Children exposed to gun violence develop psychological problems and perform worse in school (Sharkey, 2018). Roughly 70 residents move out for every homicide in a neighbourhood (Cook and Ludwig, 2000). Consequently, these communities further suffer from disinvestment and the associated lack of employment and retail options. A recent estimate suggests that the overall economic cost of firearm injuries in the USA is $557 billion annually, or almost 3% of the gross domestic product (Song, 2022).

‘Firearming’ Fairytales: NRA and Gun Culture in American Fan-Fiction

Gun issue becomes one of the most polemic issues in the United States alongside racism. Regardless, the last major gun control legislation to make it into law was the assault weapons ban in 1994 as part of a larger crime-related bill approved during Bill Clinton presidential period. After the assault weapons ban expired, American society is threatened by the increasing numbers of gun violence issue such as mass shooting and gun homicide. In this case, NRA involvement is vital towards gun culture in the United States. As non-profit organization, NRA has influential lobbying for any policies towards gun policies. Thus, this paper discusses the dissemination of gun culture on NRA family website www.nrafamily.org. In 2016, Amelia Hamilton rewrote two Grimm’s fairytales “Little Red Riding Hood (Has a Gun)” and “Hansel and Gretel (Have Guns). Since gun becomes commodity, these NRA versions of fairytales can be analyzed as part of consumer manipulation by using consumer capitalist theory. Thus, this analysis shows that those fan-fictionalized fairytales consist of two main aspects: gun as protector and gun culture as common culture in the United States. It embraces the rationalization of gun ownership’ in the United States despite its lethal consequences.

Spatial Disadvantage and Racial Disparities in Gun Homicides.

A spatially disadvantaged census tract is one that is surrounded by disadvantaged tracts. More spatially disadvantaged neighborhoods may experience more violence, independent of their own level of disadvantage, and majority Black middle-class neighborhoods are more likely to be spatially disadvantaged than majority white neighborhoods. The purpose of this paper is to study how much of the racial difference in gun homicide rates between majority Black and majority white middle-class neighborhoods can be explained by differences in spatial disadvantage. To study this, comparable majority Black and majority white tracts were matched to understand how gun homicide rates differ in neighborhoods with similar levels of disadvantage. Further matching on spatial disadvantage reduced the disparity in gun homicides between majority Black and majority white middle-class neighborhoods, suggesting that spatial disadvantage accounts for some but not all of the disparity.

Preliminary comparison of gun homicide deaths for non-probation and probation clients.

ObjectiveTo measure a baseline rate of gun homicide deaths for adults on probation in Cook County, Illinois, USA. To compare this rate to the rates for the population of the City of Chicago and for all of Cook County, which includes Chicago and suburban Cook County. ApproachIn March of 2022, two data contributing partners, Cook County Adult Probation Department (APD) and Cook County Medical Examiner’s Office (CCME), partnered with Cook County Health for salt and crypto generation and the Medical Research Analytics and Informatics Alliance (MRAIA) as the data generator. We used the open source Linkja program (https://linkja.github.io/) to match adult probation records with gun homicide death records from CCME. For our study period, CY 2018 through 2021, APD submitted a hashed roster of 53,969 unique individuals active on probation, which was matched to 307 records of gun homicide deaths. ResultsOverall, there were 3,728 gun homicides in the CCME data, 8% (n=307) involved individuals on probation. The average age was 34 years at death, almost 91% were male (n=3,374), 71% Black (n=2,650), and 14% Hispanic (n=536). Among individuals who died from gun violence, compared to those not in the probation data, probation clients tended to be younger (29 vs 33, p<.001) and more likely to be Black (89% vs. 69.5%; p<.001), We found that the rate of gun homicide deaths per 100,000 probation clients was 569, ~22 times higher than the rate for the City of Chicago in 2020 (rate=25 per 100,000) and ~33 times higher than the rate for Cook County in 2020 (rate=17 per 100,000). ConclusionPrivacy-preserving record linkage software enabled a cross-departmental data sharing project that heretofore was not realized due to privacy concerns and existing data use agreements. Our results highlight an excessive risk of homicide among adult probation clients, particularly among young black males.

Congress Passes First Significant Gun Safety Bill in Decades

Congress Passes First Significant Gun Safety Bill in Decades

Preventing Urban Firearm Homicides during COVID-19: Preliminary Results from Three Cities with the Advance Peace Program.

The years 2020–2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic witnessed increases in firearm violence in many cities across the USA. We present data from Sacramento, Stockton, and Richmond, California that suggests firearm homicides during the pandemic did not increase in all communities or disproportionately burden the African American community. More specifically, we found that in these cities, there was a 5–52% decrease in gun homicides during the 2020/2021 period compared to the 2018/2019 period for neighborhoods with a gun violence prevention program operating there. We also found a 24–83% reduction in gun homicides in census tracts with > 20% Black populations in Sacramento and Stockton during the 2020/2021 period compared to the 2018/2019 period. In two cities, there was a 15–42% decrease in the number of African American men under 35 years old that were victims of a gun homicide in 2021 compared to 2018. We also found that the gun violence program operating in these cities called Advance Peace interrupted 202 street-level conflicts where guns were present across the three cities in 2020/2021 compared to 178 of the same conflicts in 2018/2019. These interruptions likely saved hundreds of lives and we estimate contributed to between US $65 and $494 million in savings. Advance Peace is a program that engages those at the center of gun violence, frequently young, Black men under 35 years old, and offers them the Peacemaker Fellowship, an intensive, 18-month program of 24/7 mentorship, social services, and life opportunities. The program is delivered by community resident “credible messengers,” who conduct the mentorship and interrupt conflicts in the streets. While these findings are descriptive and preliminary, we know of no other program that was in operation before and during the pandemic in each of these cities that engaged the hard-to-reach but highly influential population at the center of gun violence.