Guinean Coast Research Articles

Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra region

Climate change leading to Climate extremes in the twenty-first century is more evident in megacities across the world, especially in West Africa. The Greater Accra region is one of the most populated regions in West Africa. As a result, the region has become more susceptible to climate extremes such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts. The study employed the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models in simulating climate extreme indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) over West Africa between 1979 and 2059 as exemplified by the Greater Accra region. The study observed a generally weak drought in the historical period and expected to intensify especially under SSP585 in Greater Accra. For instance, continuous dry days (CDD) reveal an increasing trend under the SSPs. Similarly, the overall projected trend of CDD over West Africa reveals an increase signifying a more frequent and longer drought in the future. The flood indices revealed a surge in the intensity and duration of extreme precipitation events under the SSPs in the region. For instance, R99pTOT and Rx5days are expected to significantly increase under the SSPs with intensification under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. A similar trend has been projected across West Africa, especially along the Guinean coast. The study foresees a gradual and intensifying rise in heatwave indices over the Greater Accra region. The warming and cooling indices reveal an increasing and decreasing trend respectively in the historical period as well as under the SSPs particularly within urban centers like Accra and Tema. Most West African countries are projected to observe more frequent warm days and nights with cold nights and days becoming less frequent. Expected effects of future climate extreme indices pose potential threats to the water, food, and energy systems as well as trigger recurrent floods and droughts over Greater Accra. The findings of the study are expected to inform climate policies and the nationally determined contribution of the Paris Agreement as well as address the sustainable development goal 11 (Sustainable cities) and 13 (Climate action) in West Africa.

Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Mean Climate Simulation over West Africa to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Using RegCM5 Regional Climate Model

This study evaluates the performance of two planetary boundary parameterizations in simulating the mean climate of West Africa using the Regional Climate Model version 5 (RegCM5). These planetary boundary parameterizations are the Holtslag scheme and the University of Washington scheme. Two sets of three one-year simulations were carried out at 25 km horizontal resolution with three different initial conditions. The first set of simulations used the Holtslag scheme (hereafter referred to as Hol), while the second used the University of Washington (UW) scheme (hereafter referred to as UW). The results displayed in this study are an average of the three simulations. During the JJAS rainy season, with respect to GPCP, both models overestimated total rainfall in the orographic regions. The UW experiment represented total rainfall fairly well compared to its counterpart, Hol. Both models reproduced convective rainfall well, with a relatively weak dry bias over the Guinean coast subregion. Globally, UW performed better than Hol in simulating precipitation. The pattern of near-surface temperature in both models was well reproduced with a higher bias with Hol than with UW. Indeed, the UW scheme led to a cooling effect owing to the reduction in eddy heat diffusivity in the lower troposphere contributing to reduce the bias. As a consequence, the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was best simulated using the UW scheme but was underestimated compared to ERA5, while using the Hol scheme failed to capture the height of the PBL. This is coherent with the distribution of total cloud cover, which was better simulated with the UW scheme compared to the Hol scheme. This study shows that use of both planetary boundary parameterizations leads to a good simulation of most of the climatological characteristics of the West African region. Nevertheless, use of the UW scheme contributes to a better performance than use of the Hol scheme, and the differentiation between the two schemes is significant along the Guinea Coast and in orographic regions. In these topographically complex regions, UW appears to be more appropriate than Hol. This study emphasizes the importance of planetary boundary parameterizations for accurately simulating climate variables and for improving climate forecasts and projections in West Africa.

Study of Recent Climate Variability in Guinean Coast: Case Study of Bingerville and La Mé in Côte D’Ivoire

Study of Recent Climate Variability in Guinean Coast: Case Study of Bingerville and La Mé in Côte D’Ivoire

Spatial Variation and Trend of Extreme Precipitation in West Africa and Teleconnections with Remote Indices

Extreme precipitation is a great concern for West Africa country, as it has serious consequence on key socio-economic activities. We use high resolution data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation Stations (CHIRPS) to determine the spatial variability, trend of 8 extreme precipitation indices in West Africa and their relationship to remote indices. Spatial variability of extreme is characterized by maximum precipitation over the orographic regions, and in southern Sahel. The trend analysis shows a decrease of dry condition in Sahel and Sahara, and an increase tendency of wet indices over western Sahel and southern Sahel. The correlation analysis reveals that extreme precipitation in Sahel is strongly teleconnected to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS), whereas western and western-north Sahel is associated with both Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), Maiden Julian Oscillation phase 8 (MJO8), El Niño 3.4 index (NINO.3.4), and Trans-Atlantic-Pacific Ocean Dipole Index (TAPODI) but with different characteristics or directions. Guinean coast extreme precipitation is highly associated with Atlantic zone 3 SST anomaly (ATL3), Northern Cold Tongue Index (NCTI), TAPODI but also with an opposite sign with NINO.3.4 and in somewhat with the MJO8.

Numerical simulation of land and sea-breeze (LSB) circulation along the Guinean Coast of West Africa

This study uses both observed and simulated data to investigate the diurnal evolution of land and sea-breeze (LSB) circulation across the Guinean Coast of West Africa. Numerical simulations, with ERA-Interim and CFS as forcing data, were carried out using a modified WRF-ARW model code to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the LSB kinematics over West Africa. Two simulation runs were performed with each data set. Comparison of the simulated and observed winds showed that the WRF model was able to capture the rotation of LSB in the coastal areas of the region very well. Results also showed that the simulated diurnal evolutions of the hodographs and onshore/offshore winds were found to be in good agreement with the observations. Furthermore, the simulations showed complex patterns of clockwise (CR) and anti-clockwise rotations (ACR) across the Guinean Coast. The sense of rotation is a result of complex interaction between surface and synoptic pressure gradients, horizontal and vertical diffusion, and advection terms. Overall, the results of the analysis showed that the balance is not always dominated by the pressure gradient terms, as suggested by earlier studies. However, hourly analysis of the rotation terms strongly indicates that over the ocean, surface pressure gradients dominate, while diffusion terms are more important over land areas. The Coriolis term was found not to be significant, the study area being close to the equator. Significantly, regions over water are found to be dominated by ACR, while land areas showed more CR. This may be attributed to the variation of surface roughness due to the landscape and urbanization.

Intraseasonal, Seasonal, and Interannual Characteristics of Regional Monsoon Simulations in CESM2

AbstractA survey of intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual precipitation and 850 hPa winds for various monsoon regimes around the world is presented for the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) compared to observations and the previous generation CESM1. In CESM2 the south Asian monsoon has a reduction of excessive precipitation in the western Indian Ocean and an increase of precipitation in the eastern Bay of Bengal and land areas of Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. The seasonal timing of the south Asian monsoon, monsoon‐ENSO connections, and monsoon intraseasonal variability all are improved compared to CESM1. For the Australian monsoon, deficient precipitation over the Maritime Continent has been improved in CESM2 with increases of precipitation over the large tropical islands of Borneo, Celebes, and Papua New Guinea and decreases over southwestern Australia. In the West African monsoon, May–June seasonal rainfall occurs more preferentially over the African coast in CESM2 as in observations, and excessive rainfall over the Ethiopian region is reduced. During July–September in the West African monsoon, deficient precipitation over equatorial Africa in CESM1 has been lessened in CESM2, and there are increases in precipitation over the Guinean coast, though there is little overall improvement in the South African monsoon. In the South American monsoon, precipitation in CESM2 is improved with increased precipitation over the Amazon in central and western Brazil. CESM2 simulates a reduction of excessive precipitation seen in CESM1 over coastal Mexico extending up into the U.S. Great Plains in the North American monsoon.

Interannual variability of rainfall in the Guinean Coast region and its links with sea surface temperature changes over the twentieth century for the different seasons

The summer Guinean Coast (GC) rainfall (GCR) displays a strong variability on different timescales that are driven by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations and amplified by land–atmosphere processes. However, the relationships between the GCR and SST modes of variability in the pre-monsoon (March–May, MAM), post-monsoon (October–November, ON) and Harmattan (December–February, DJF) seasons are not well known nor understood. Using observational dataset covering the twentieth century, we extend the conclusion obtained in previous studies that mainly analyzed the summer period (June–September, JJAS) by considering changes in SST-rainfall linkages throughout the year. We show that, in boreal winter, SST interannual variability in the tropical basins are anticorrelated with the GCR. The South Atlantic Ocean Dipole (SAOD) and the Atlantic Nino (ATL3) appear, however, as major drivers of the pre-monsoon and monsoon GCR. In MAM, both modes are in opposite phases with the GCR. Below normal SST in the tropical South Atlantic in MAM leads to a surface divergence south of the equator, and the resulting southerlies bring moist air into coastal Guinea, increasing rainfall. During JJAS, ATL3 and SAOD are in phase with the GCR. During ON, the eastern Mediterranean Sea anomalous warming strengthens the Saharan Heat Low, whose extension in the tropical North Atlantic enhances the low-level westerly Jet. This jet transports moisture into GC. The stationarity of the correlations between the GCR and SST indices has also been assessed, and the strongest and most stationary links are obtained during the monsoon season.

Conceptual model of diurnal cycle of low-level stratiform clouds over southern West Africa

Abstract. The DACCIWA (Dynamics Aerosol Chemistry Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project and the associated ground-based field experiment, which took place during summer 2016, provided a comprehensive dataset on the low-level stratiform clouds (LLSCs), which develop almost every night over southern West Africa. The LLSCs, inaccurately represented in climate and weather forecasts, form in the monsoon flow during the night and break up during the following morning or afternoon, affecting considerably the radiation budget. Several published studies give an overview of the measurements during the campaign, analyse the dynamical features in which the LLSCs develop, and quantify the processes involved in the LLSC formation. Based on the main results of these studies and new analyses, we propose in this paper a conceptual model of the diurnal cycle of the LLSCs over southern West Africa. Four main phases compose the diurnal cycle of the LLSC. The stable and the jet phases are the two steps during which the relative humidity increases, due to cooling of the air, until the air is saturated and the LLSCs form. Horizontal advection of cold air from the Guinean coast by the maritime inflow and the nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ) represents 50 % of the local total cooling. The remaining half is mainly due to divergence of net radiation and turbulence flux. The third step of the LLSC diurnal cycle is the stratus phase, which starts during the night and lasts until the onset of surface-buoyancy-driven turbulence on the following day. During the stratus phase, interactions between the LLSCs and the NLLJ lead to a modification of the wind speed vertical profile in the cloud layer, and a mixing of the sub-cloud layer by shear-driven turbulence below the NLLJ core. The breakup of the LLSC occurs during the convective phase and follows three different scenarios which depend on the intensity of the turbulence observed during the night in the sub-cloud layer. The breakup time has a considerable impact on the energy balance of the Earth's surface and, consequently, on the depth of the convective boundary layer, which could vary by a factor of 2 from day-to-day.

Analysis of Rainfall Dynamics in Conakry, Republic of Guinea

Observed rainfall data of the National Meteorological Service of Guinea (NMS) exhibit that synoptic station usually records the largest rainfall amount in Guinea. Only few studies have been done on this rainfall peak observed in Conakry. This work better analyses the atmospheric dynamics leading to rainfall particularity. Using NMS data from 1981 to 2010, the monthly contribution and mean seasonal cycle of each station has been done. These findings of the study show that between July and August (rainfall season peak), the coastline particularly Conakry records the largest amount of rainfall. Using Era Interim data for the common period (1981-2010), we also investigate the rainfall dynamics in the lower level (1000 hPa - 850 hPa) from precipitable water, divergence, and moisture flow transport. There is a west and southwest moisture flow transport explained by a strong moisture convergence in the coastal region (Lower-Guinea). Furthermore, values of precipitable water in the same region are found, in agreement with the high moisture flow transport gradient. These incoming flow (west and south-west) undergo a return by blocking’s Kakoulima range (foehn effect) and Fouta Djallon massif to initiate convection clouds on the Guinean coast. These processes enhance a convergence of moisture associated with orographic origin convection. This has an important effect by increasing the rainfall amount in Conakry.

Sensitivity of GPS tropospheric estimates to mesoscale convective systems in West Africa

Abstract. This study analyzes the characteristics of GPS tropospheric estimates (zenith wet delays – ZWDs, gradients, and post-fit phase residuals) during the passage of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and evaluates their sensitivity to the research-level GPS data processing strategy implemented. Here, we focus on MCS events observed during the monsoon season of West Africa. This region is particularly well suited for the study of these events due to the high frequency of MCS occurrences in the contrasting climatic environments between the Guinean coast and the Sahel. This contrast is well sampled with data generated by six African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) GPS stations. Tropospheric estimates for a 3-year period (2006–2008), processed with both the GAMIT and GIPSY-OASIS software packages, were analyzed and intercompared. First, the case of a MCS that passed over Niamey, Niger, on 11 August 2006 demonstrates a strong impact of the MCS on GPS estimates and post-fit residuals when the GPS signals propagate through the convective cells as detected on reflectivity maps from the MIT C-band Doppler radar. The estimates are also capable of detecting changes in the structure and dynamics of the MCS. However, the sensitivity is different depending on the tropospheric modeling approach adopted in the software. With GIPSY-OASIS, the high temporal sampling (5 min) of ZWDs and gradients is well suited for detecting the small-scale, short-lived, convective cells, while the post-fit residuals remain quite small. With GAMIT, the lower temporal sampling of the estimated parameters (hourly for ZWDs and daily for gradients) is not sufficient to capture the rapid delay variations associated with the passage of the MCS, but the post-fit phase residuals clearly reflect the presence of a strong refractivity anomaly. The results are generalized with a composite analysis of 414 MCS events observed over the 3-year period at the six GPS stations with the GIPSY-OASIS estimates. A systematic peak is found in the ZWDs coincident with the cold pool crossing time associated with the MCSs. The tropospheric gradients reflect the path of the MCS propagation (generally from east to west). This study concludes that ZWDs, gradients, and post-fit phase residuals provide relevant and complementary information on MCSs passing over or in the vicinity of a GPS station.

Characteristics of land and sea breezes along the Guinea Coast of West Africa

This study utilized 34-years hourly data of wind speed and direction, precipitation, and air temperature over land to investigate the climatology of land and sea breezes (LSB) at seven coastline stations along the Guinean Coast of West Africa. Daily sea surface temperature from the adjacent Atlantic Ocean and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission daily precipitation data was used. Ten years reanalysis data of ERA-Interim, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis version 2 (CFSRv2), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP2) were also used for comparison with the observations. Adopted criteria were based on both surface and upper air information to identify LSB days. The results show that LSB is a seasonal phenomenon but most frequent in winter. All reanalyses underestimated the monthly occurrence and seasonal cycle of LSB, although CFSRv2 is better in reproducing the observations than ERA-Interim and NCEP2. The wind roses revealed the existence of night/early morning offshore winds. Except in summer when the southwesterly monsoon winds prevail all day, onshore winds are observed from about 1100 local solar time (LST), with a mean cessation time at 0100 LST, giving a mean duration of about 14 h. However, in Abidjan, they occurred at all hours. The vertical plots confirmed the wind direction reversals for LSB days and give an indication of its depth and speed in different months. It has been found that LSB height is influenced by the West African monsoon as intertropical discontinuity advances northwards from January. This was also seen in LSB increased speed from December to August.

Physical Forcing Induced Coastal Vulnerability along the Gulf of Guinea

Coastal areas of the Gulf of Guinea experience accelerated degradation as a result of erosion and flooding associated with intensification of extreme marine-meteorological phenomena. The coastal erosion process, especially on the sandy or muddy littoral, constitutes one of the main factors of the degradation of the Gulf of the Guinean coast. These risks, which are still poorly studied, could increase over the coming decades because of climate change and the human activities that exacerbate them. Data related to ocean forcing (tide, wave, and sea level anomaly), to hydrologic parameter (rainfall) and to the state (geomorphology, coastal slope, and rate of coastal retreat) of the coast were analyzed by several statistical methods and a numerical vulnerability model to map the vulnerability of the different coastlines of this region. The results showed that the vulnerability of these coastal areas is influenced by geomorphology, tide, waves and rainfall intensity. 24.34% and 37% of the entire coast are of low and moderate vulnerability respectively. While 26.98% and 11.66% are of high and very high vulnerability respectively. This information could facilitate developing sustainable policies to effectively manage hazards in this coastal zone.

Does convection-permitting simulate better rainfall distribution and extreme over Guinean coast and surroundings?

This research work focuses on the problem of climate simulation of rainfall over West Africa and particularly over coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea by Regional Climate Models. The sensitivities of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were tested for changes in horizontal resolution (convection permitting versus parameterized) on the replication of West African monsoon for the year 2014. Sensitivity test was also performed for response of rainfall to changes in microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. Generally, the result shows that WRF is able to replicates rainfall distribution with an adequate representation of the dynamical features of West African monsoon system. The high-resolution (wrf-4km) shows dry bias along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea but generally outperforms wrf-24km run especially in replication of the extreme rainfall distribution. The dry bias along the coastal area is suggested to not to be only related to convection but mostly to microphysics and PBL parameterisation schemes. Differences were noticed between the dynamics of WRF and ERA-interim outputs despite the use of spectral nudging in the experiment which then suggest strong interactions between scales. These differences were observed to be restricted mainly to the low-layer monsoon flow in JJA. Both runs at 24 and 4 km hardly simulate the typical diurnal distribution of rainfall. The sensitivity of WRF to MP (only sophisticated MP were tested) and PBL reveals a stronger impact of PBL than MP on rainfall distribution and the most significant added value over the Guinean coast and surroundings area was provided by the configurations using non-local PBL scheme (as ACM2). The changes in MP and PBL schemes in general seem to have less effect on the explicit runs (wrf-4km) in the replication of the rainfall over the Gulf of Guinea and the surroundings seaboard.

Simulations of the observed ‘jump’ in the West African monsoon and its underlying dynamics using the MIT regional climate model

ABSTRACTThe observed seasonal migration of rainfall associated with the West African monsoon (WAM) is characterized by two regimes of relatively intense rainfall: an early, intense peak over the Guinean Coast during late May to early July; and a late, less‐intense peak over the Sahel during mid‐July to mid‐September. The transition between these two rainfall regimes occurs relatively quickly around the beginning of July. This quick transition can be described as a ‘jump’ of the WAM into the continent. Eltahir and Gong (1996) proposed a theory for the WAM whereby the solar radiation forcing during the summer shapes a distribution of boundary‐layer entropy that peaks over the continent. By assuming a quasi‐equilibrium balance between moist convection and the large‐scale radiative forcing, the distribution of boundary‐layer entropy can be linked to the absolute vorticity at the tropopause. According to this analytical theory, the onset of the monsoon, characterized by the ‘jump’, reflects of a nonlinear shift from a radiative‐convective equilibrium regime to an angular momentum conserving regime that would only occur when the value of absolute vorticity in the upper troposphere approaches a threshold of zero. It is because, when the absolute vorticity is significantly different from zero, then the air as a rotating fluid is too rigid to exhibit a meridional overturning. Here, we use the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) to test this theory further and reach a couple of conclusions. First, MRCM succeeds in reproducing the main features of the observed rainfall distribution, including the ‘jump’. Second, analysis of the rainfall, vorticity, entropy, and wind fields simulated by the model reveals a dynamical picture consistent with the proposed theory.

Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

AbstractFuture projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community‐Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4‐produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response of the RCM climate to different climate change factors is roughly linear in that the projected changes driven by combined factors are close to the sum of projected changes due to each individual factor alone at least for long‐term averages. Findings from this study are important for understanding the source(s) of uncertainties in regional climate projections and for designing innovative approaches to climate downscaling and impact assessment.

Statistical Connection between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Large Daily Precipitation Events in West Africa

Abstract This study focuses on the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)—as monitored by a well-known multivariate index—on large daily precipitation events in West Africa for the period 1981–2014. Two seasons are considered: the near-equatorial wet season in March–May (MAM) and the peak of the West African monsoon during July–September (JAS), when the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is at its most northerly position. Although the MJO-related interannual variation of seasonal mean rainfall is large, the focus here is on the impacts of the MJO on daily time scales because variations in the frequency of intense, short-term, flood-causing, rainfall events are more important for West African agriculture than variations in seasonal precipitation, particularly near the Guinean coast, where precipitation is abundant. Using composites based on thresholds of daily precipitation amounts, changes in mean precipitation and frequency of the heaviest daily events associated with the phase of the MJO are investigated. The expected modulation of mean rainfall by the MJO is much stronger during MAM than during JAS; yet the modulation of the largest events (i.e., daily rainfall rates above the 90th percentile) is comparable in both seasons. Conservative statistical tests of local and field significance indicate unambiguous impacts of the MJO of the expected sign during certain phases, but the nature of the impact depends on the local seasonal precipitation regime. For instance, in JAS, the early stages of the MJO increase the risk of flooding in the Sahel monsoon region while providing relief to the dry southern coast.

Predictability of convective precipitation for West Africa: verification of convection-permitting and global ensemble simulations

Within the framework of this investigation, convection-permitting (CP) ensemble forecasts were generated for West Africa by combining different initial and lateral boundary conditions (IBCs) with perturbations that address the uncertainty of land-surface atmosphere interactions (land-surface perturbations). For a multi-analysis setup, IBCs were taken from model analyses of different global models; for a single-model setup, they were selected from the ensemble system of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The different ensemble setups were assessed using common probabilistic scores as well as by spatial forecast verification of precipitation generated mainly by convective systems during the West African monsoon season. Additionally, it was investigated whether the CP ensemble forecasts were superior to the ECMWF ensemble forecasts.Probabilistic scores were higher for the single-model ensemble than for the multi-analysis setup, but the latter displayed a larger dispersion and more extreme scenarios. From this, it is concluded that the different model analyses can differ strongly from each other. The land-surface perturbations were able to generate sufficient complementary spread. While the CP simulations showed a stronger negative precipitation bias in the southernmost region near the Guinean coast, the ECMWF simulations exhibited a negative bias further north in the Sahel region, where larger convective systems occur less frequently. Not in all cases did the CP ensemble versions produce better probabilistic scores than the global ensemble forecasts, but they yielded larger spread and less underdispersion. Rank histograms, though, were also influenced by the different structure of the precipitation patterns of the global and CP forecasts. Scores improved when using a later version of the CP model as well as with the skill of the global ensemble forecasts used as IBCs. Altogether, the proposed realization of CP ensemble forecasts is found to be suited for the prediction of convective precipitation in West Africa.

Implications of land use change in tropical northern Africa under global warming

Abstract. A major link between climate and humans in tropical northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. Here we assess possible feedbacks between the type of land use and harvest intensity and climate by analysing a series of idealized GCM experiments using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The baseline for these experiments is a simulation forced by the RCP8.5 (radiation concentration pathway) scenario, which includes strong greenhouse gas emissions and anthropogenic land cover changes. The anthropogenic land cover changes in the RCP8.5 scenario include a mixture of pasture and agriculture. In subsequent simulations, we replace the entire area affected by anthropogenic land cover change in the region between the Sahara in the north and the Guinean Coast in the south (4 to 20\\degree N) with either pasture or agriculture. In a second set-up we vary the amount of harvest in the case of agriculture. The RCP8.5 baseline simulation reveals strong changes in the area mean agriculture and monsoon rainfall. In comparison with these changes, any variation of the type of land use in the study area leads to very small, mostly insignificantly small, additional differences in mean temperature and annual precipitation change in this region. These findings are only based on the specific set-up of our experiments, which only focuses on variations in the kind of land use, and not the increase in land use, over the 21st century, nor whether land use is considered at all. Within the uncertainty of the representation of land use in current ESMs, our study suggests marginal feedback between land use changes and climate changes triggered by strong greenhouse gas emissions. Hence as a good approximation, climate can be considered as an external forcing: models investigating land-use–conflict dynamics can run offline by prescribing seasonal or mean values of climate as a boundary condition for climate.

Seasonal influence of the sea surface temperature on the low atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the eastern equatorial Atlantic

The air–sea interaction in the Gulf of Guinea and its role in setting precipitation at the Guinean coast is investigated in the present paper. This study is based on satellite observations and WRF simulations forced by different sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. It shows that the seasonal cold tongue setup in the Gulf of Guinea, along with its very active northern front, tends to strongly constrain the low level atmospheric dynamics between the equator and the Guinean coast. Underlying mechanisms including local SST effect on the marine boundary layer stability and hydrostatically-changed meridional pressure gradient through changes in SST gradient are quantified in WRF regarding observations and CFSR reanalyses. Theses mechanisms strongly impact moisture flux convergence near the coast, leading to the installation of the first rainy season of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system. The current study details the mechanisms by which the Atlantic Equatorial cold tongue plays a major role in the pre-onset of the boreal WAM.

The Congo Basin Walker circulation: dynamics and connections to precipitation

The existence, seasonality, and variability of a Congo Basin Walker circulation are investigated in reanalyses, and connections with rainfall are explored. A zonal overturning circulation along the equator connects rising motion in the Congo Basin and sinking in the eastern Atlantic during June through October. This timing is out of phase with precipitation over equatorial Africa, which greatest during spring and fall, and does not correlate with the seasonality of land temperatures. Rather, the zonally-overturning circulation only occurs when the Atlantic cold tongue has formed. Although the cold tongue formation is essential for setting up the Congo Basin Walker circulation, variations in equatorial eastern Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not associated with interannual variability in the strength of the circulation. When cold tongue SSTs are anomalously cool (warm), evaporation from the ocean surface is reduced (enhanced) and the westerly flow advects less (more) moisture into the base of the Congo Basin Walker circulation. This reduces (increases) the release of latent heat in the upbranch and weakens (strengthens) the Walker circulation. This process dominates the pure dry dynamical response to enhanced land/sea temperature differences, which has an opposite sign. A positive correlation connects low-level vertical velocity in the Congo basin with low-level vertical velocity and precipitation over West Africa. A wave response to anomalous vertical velocity in the Congo Basin in several reanalyses suggests a teleconnection into West Africa such that an anomalously strong (weak) upbranch is associated with anomalously strong (weak) rainfall over the Guinean coast and southern Sahel.