A methodology for numerical modeling of determining the efficiency of missile firing in the form of conditional probability of hitting air targets is developed and presented. The firing of missiles at different windward targets during the development of targeting from a battery command post or regimental command post is considered. The modeling takes into account the design and technical characteristics of the stations and systems of the combat vehicle and missile. The flight altitudes of different airborne targets are 500 m, 1000 m, 5000 m, with the flight speed of a typical target being 230 m/s and 40 m/s for an unmanned aerial vehicle. The effect of active noise interference of different densities on the radar channels of the target tracking station and the missile fuze is shown. Interference from weak to feeder density (or their residues) of the same level was used, after appropriate compensation. The influence of possible maneuvering of airborne targets with overloads up to 10 g and different effective scattering surfaces of targets from 10-3 m2 to 102 m2 is calculated. The ranges of target acquisition for automatic tracking are determined when the target parameters are no more than 103 m and taking into account the range of the target from the antenna pattern of the combat vehicle target tracking station. The values of the inclined ranges to the far limit of the kill zone of an anti-aircraft missile system for different effective scattering surfaces, interference, and target velocities are presented. Values are given for the first kind of missile firing errors, namely the probability of a missile passing through a “tube” of the required radius. The values of the systematic components of missile guidance errors and their standard deviation are given, depending on the point of contact between the missile and the target. The largest missile miss (at which the fuse is triggered with a probability of 0,5) and the average miss and its standard deviation of errors are found. The values of the second kind of firing errors, i.e., the probability of triggering the missile's radio fuse, were calculated. The standard deviation of the missile's radar detector errors is calculated, taking into account the scalar diffraction field in the intermediate and near zones of its receiving antenna. The values of the mathematical expectation of the random value of the radius of the missile's radar detector, which corresponds to a certain target under the given conditions of the missile's meeting with the target, are found. To calculate the conditional probability of a missile's radar detector being triggered, the general case of the probability of a missile's radar detector being triggered at fixed values of different effective scattering surfaces, interference levels, and missile misses is used. The paper analyzes the values of conditional probabilities of hitting air targets when firing a single missile, which are limited by the values of the circular law of target destruction. The obtained values of the conditional probabilities of hitting air targets are strictly tied to the far limit of the complex's kill zone. The analytical expressions for the calculations, the results of the calculations, and the corresponding graphical material are presented.
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