Guam Earthquake Research Articles

Effectiveness of electromagnetic monitoring in studying earthquakes

Numerous researches conducted in connection with the study of earthquakes have shown that electromagnetic monitoring studies have led to some important results. From the Loma Prieta earthquake to the Guam earthquake, electromagnetic monitoring studies led to significant results. Since then, there have been numerous reports of possible elect-romagnetic precursors to earthquakes, some of which have involved frequencies covered by ELF/VLF (10—32 kHz) monitoring system Fraser-Smith et al. [1990]. Sometime later, they retrieved and started processing their ULF data. They had less reason to expect electromagnetic precursors in this latter data, because previous reports of precursory signals at frequencies below the ELF/VLF range have, with few exceptions, involved frequencies either below or predominantly below their ULF range (0.01—10 Hz) of operation. They found out that ELF/VLF data do not appear to show precursory activity, whereas ULF data contain a number of anomalous features that may prove to be earthquake precursors. The lack of observation of precursory ELF/VLF noise so close to the epicenters of several mode-rate to moderately-large earthquakes showed that ELF/VLF noise need not be a strong or obvious feature of every earthquake, as Fraser-Smith et al. [1990] reported in their paper.
 At present, numerous studies have been conducted in this area and researches are being improved. From my experience as a young researcher, it became clear that electromagnetic monitoring research is necessary, and that more important and significant results can be achieved if continuous research is conducted in a certain area. Thus, these studies may play a significant role in the detection of earthquake precursors.

On the multi-fractal characteristics of the ULF geomagnetic field before the 1993 Guam earthquake

Abstract. Ida et al. (2005) document significant changes in the multi-fractal parameters of the ULF geomagnetic field H component starting about one month before the 1993 Guam earthquake. According to the authors, these multi-fractal signatures can be considered as precursory signals of the Guam earthquake. As a consequence, they conclude that the multi-fractal analysis may have an important role in the development of short-term earthquake prediction capabilities. Since this and other similar reports have motivated the idea that earthquake prediction based on electromagnetic precursory signals may one day become a routine technique, the presumed precursors need to be validated through independent datasets. In this review the seismogenic origin of the multi-fractal magnetic signatures documented by Ida et al. (2005) before the 8 August 1993 Guam earthquake is seriously put into question. By means of the geomagnetic ΣKp index, it is demonstrated that these multi-fractal parameter changes are normal signals induced by the variation of the global geomagnetic activity level.

Fractal characteristics of the ULF emissions along a meridian profile, based on the 210 MM stations data

Fractal analysis of magnetic records (1 Hz sampling rate) of 5 stations (Guam, Moshiri, Paratunka, Magadan, and Chokurdakh) located along the 210 magnetic meridian (210 MM) has been performed using the Higuchi method. The period of 22 months (October 1992 to July 1994) that embodies the date of the strong Guam earthquake of 8 August1993 has been considered. A comparison of the ULF emissions scaling parameters (spectral exponents β and fractal dimensions D) obtained at different latitudes has been made. Dependence of β and D on the Kp index of geomagnetic activity has been analyzed for each of the 24 local time intervals. It is revealed that D decreases ( β increases) with increasing geomagnetic activity at all stations, but the rates of decrease (increase) are different at different stations and in different time intervals. It is shown that the evening, night and early morning hours are preferable to study magnetospheric effects, whereas the noon hours are the most suitable for the analysis of lithospheric effects. A possibility of using the data of the 210 MM stations as reference materials for the Guam seismically active area is discussed.

On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1993 Guam earthquake

Using 1‐second magnetometer data recorded 67 km from the epicenter of the 1993 Mw 7.7 Guam earthquake, Hayakawa et al. (1996) and Miyahara et al. (1999) identify anomalous precursory changes in ultra‐low frequency magnetic polarization (the ratio of vertical to horizontal field components). In a check of their results, we compare their data (GAM) with 1‐second data from the Kakioka observatory (KAK) in Japan and the global magnetic activity index Kp. We also examine log books kept by USGS staff working on the Guam magnetic observatory. We find (1) analysis problems with both Hayakawa et al. and Miyahara et al., (2) significant correlation between the GAM, KAK, and Kp data, and (3) an absence of identifiable localized anomalous signals occurring prior to the earthquake. The changes we do find in polarization are part of normal global magnetic activity; they are unrelated to the earthquake.

Application of different signal analysis methods to the ULF data for the 1993 Guam earthquake

Abstract. Two different analysis methods; (1) mono-fractal analysis (based on Higuchi method) and (2) flicker noise spectroscopy, have been applied to the same ULF (frequency less than 10 Hz) electromagnetic data observed at Guam during 3 years including the 1993 August Guam earthquake. The results by these two methods are found to be very consistent with each other; that is, some precursory effects seem to start about 3 months before the earthquake. This gives us a strong support to the self-organizing critical process before the Guam earthquake.

Fractal characteristics of the ground-observed ULF emissions in relation to geomagnetic and seismic activities

Results of fractal analysis of ultra-low-frequency (ULF) emissions registered at a low-latitude observatory, Guam (geomagnetic coordinates Φ m=9°N, Λ m=225°), and at a high-latitude drifting station, North Pole-30 ( Φ m=75°N, Λ m=172°), are presented. The first set of data covers a long period of observations (20 months) including the strong (Ms=8) Guam earthquake of 8 August 1993. The second set of data covers a short period of observations (21 days) in April 1989 during the preparation phase of the big magnetic storm of 25 April 1989. Definite peculiarities in the behavior of ULF emission scaling (fractal) characteristics have been found, which are discussed on the basis of the self-organized criticality concept. The principal common peculiarity for magnetosphere–ionosphere and lithosphere systems is detection of flicker noise ( β∼1, D 0∼2) in a certain frequency range on the preparation phase of strong magnetospheric and seismic events.

Fractal analysis for the ULF data during the 1993 Guam earthquake to study prefracture criticality

Abstract. An extremely large earthquake (with magnitude of 8.2) happened on 8 August 1993 near the Guam island, and ultra-low-frequency (ULF) (frequency less than 1 Hz) electromagnetic fields were measured by 3-axis induction magnetometers at an observing station (with the epicentral distance of 65 km) with sampling frequency of 1 Hz. In order to study electromagnetic signature of prefracture criticality, we have undertaken the fractal (mono-fractal) analysis by means of the Higuchi's method for the ULF data during the 1993 Guam earthquake. Then, it is found that the fractal dimension exhibits five maxima 99, 75, 52, 21, and 9–4 days before the earthquake main shock, which suggests the ULF electromagnetic signature of nonlinear evolution (in the sense of self-organized criticality) taking place in the lithosphere just before the 1993 large Guam earthquake. That is, there take place step-like changes in the lithosphere during the long-term of the order of several months before the main shock.

Multifractal Analysis for the ULF Geomagnetic Data during the Guam Earthquake

In our previous papers we have shown that the fractal (monofractal) dimension (Do) showed a significant increase before the Guam earthquake occurred on August 8, 1993. In order to have a further support to this precursory effect, we have carried out the corresponding multifractal analysis (by means of detrended fluctuation analysis) for the same data to study the statistical self-similar properties in a wide range of scales. We have analyzed the ULF geomagnetic data (the most intense H component) observed at Guam observatory. As the result, we have found that we could observe significant changes in the multifractal parameters at Guam. αmin showed a meaningful decrease about 25 days before the earthquake, but αmax exhibited no significant change at all, so that Δα showed a significant increase before the earthquake. Correspondingly, the generalized multifractal dimension Dq (q>1) showed a significant decrease (whereas Dq (q<0) showed no change) and D0 (= Dq (q=0) (as already found in our previous papers) is reconfirmed to increase before the earthquake. These multifractal characteristics seem to be a further support that these changes are closely associated with the earthquake as a precursor to the Guam earthquake.

Multifractal analysis for the ULF geomagnetic data during the 1993 Guam earthquake

Abstract. In our previous papers we have shown that the fractal (monofractal) dimension (Do) showed a significant increase before the Guam earthquake occurred on 8 August, 1993. In order to have a further support to this precursory effect to the general rupture (earthquake) we have carried out the corresponding multifractal analysis (by means of detrended fluctuation analysis) for the same data to study the statistical self-similar properties in a wide range of scales. We have analyzed the ULF geomagnetic data (the most intense H component) observed at Guam observatory. As the result, we have found that we could observe significant changes in the multifractal parameters at Guam such that αmin showed a meaningful decrease about 25 days before the earthquake and correspondingly Δα increased because αmax exhibited no significant change at all. The most sensitive parameter seems to be non-uniformity factor Δ. Correspondingly, the generalized multifractal dimension Dq (q&gt;1) showed a significant decrease (whereas Dq (q&lt;0) showed no change) and D0 (=Dq (q=0) (as already found in our previous papers) is reconfirmed to increase before the earthquake. These multifractal characteristics seem to be a further support that these changes are closely associated with the earthquake as a precursor to the Guam earthquake, providing us with appreciable information on the pre-rupture evolution of the earthquake.

Precursory behavior of fractal characteristics of the ULF electromagnetic fields in seismic active zones before strong earthquakes

It is now recognized that the earthquake hazard systems evolve naturally to the self-organized critical (SOC) state, in which the system is very sensitive to any external perturbations, and when the large avalanches (strong earthquakes) are probable events. Since the principal feature of the SOC state is fractal organization of the output parameters both in space (scale-invariant structure) and in time (flicker noise or 1/ f noise) we can use fractal methods to investigate the evolutionary processes in the earthquake hazard system at different stages of the catastrophic event preparation. Here we apply fractal methods for extraction of earthquake precursory signatures from ULF ( f=0.001–1 Hz) geomagnetic data obtained in seismic active regions before strong earthquake events. We focus our attention on the massive Guam earthquake of August 8, 1993 ( M=8, depth=60 km), and on a swarm of Japanese earthquakes of June–August 2000 occurred near Izu Peninsula ( M>6, depth ≈ 10 km). We analyze scaling (fractal) characteristics of ULF geomagnetic fields registered in the area less than 100 km from the earthquake epicenters, study their dynamics as approaching the earthquake dates, and compare the results obtained in both regions. Three methods have been applied to calculate scaling parameters (spectral exponents and fractal dimensions of the ULF geomagnetic time series): FFT procedure, Burlaga–Klein approach and Higuchi method. It is found that fractal characteristics of the ULF emissions manifest specific precursory behavior with some common and individual peculiarities in both seismic active areas. As the common feature, we have revealed the same increase of the ULF time series fractal dimensions (and the corresponding decrease of spectral exponents) before the both events. As the distinctive peculiarity, we have found different character of such dynamics: gradual increase (decrease) in the case of the Guam earthquakes and relatively sharp alteration in the case of the Izu earthquake swarm. For the case of Japanese earthquakes, it turned out to be possible to reveal the most effective frequency range (around f=0.01 Hz), in which precursory behavior of fractal characteristics is more pronounced and manifested earlier than in the other frequency ranges. We give a physical interpretation of the peculiarities revealed taking into account possible specifics of the SOC processes at different depths of the earthquake focuses.

Characteristics of ULF magnetic anomaly before earthquakes

We analyze the ULF magnetic field emissions observed at three different field sites. Large seismic events occurred near each station. Temporal dependence of the polarization ratio (ratio of horizontal to vertical magnetic field components) has been calculated in the frequency range between 1.17 mHz and 0.5 Hz with longer than 2-year data for each event. Two of three seismic events were associated with anomalous change in the polarization ratio. Remarkable similarities were found in the ratio between these two different seismic events: (1) The ratio has a significant increase about 1 month before the earthquake (about two times larger than usual level), (2) the increase is seen in the nighttime period (22–02 LT). The frequency range of increase in the ratio depends on the earthquake (0.01–0.022 Hz for the Izu Island earthquake swarms and 0.05–0.1 Hz for the Guam earthquake). Calculated ratio based on the simple theoretical model has a good agreement with observed values for these two earthquakes.

Fractal analysis of the ULF geomagnetic data obtained at Izu Peninsula, Japan in relation to the nearby earthquake swarm of June–August 2000

Abstract. In our recent papers we applied fractal methods to extract the earthquake precursory signatures from scaling characteristics of the ULF geomagnetic data, obtained in a seismic active region of Guam Island during the large earthquake of 8 August 1993. We found specific dynamics of their fractal characteristics (spectral exponents and fractal dimensions) before the earthquake: appearance of the flicker-noise signatures and increase of the time series fractal dimension. Here we analyze ULF geomagnetic data obtained in a seismic active region of Izu Peninsula, Japan during a swarm of the strong nearby earthquakes of June–August 2000 and compare the results obtained in both regions. We apply the same methodology of data processing using the FFT procedure, Higuchi method and Burlaga-Klein approach to calculate the spectral exponents and fractal dimensions of the ULF time series. We found the common features and specific peculiarities in the behavior of fractal characteristics of the ULF time series before Izu and Guam earthquakes. As a common feature, we obtained the same increase of the ULF time series fractal dimension before the earthquakes, and as specific peculiarity – this increase appears to be sharp for Izu earthquake in comparison with gradual increase of the ULF time series fractal dimension for Guam earthquake. The results obtained in both regions are discussed on the basis of the SOC (self-organized criticality) concept taking into account the differences in the depths of the earthquake focuses. On the basis of the peculiarities revealed, we advance methodology for extraction of the earthquake precursory signatures. As an adjacent step, we suggest the combined analysis of the ULF time series in the parametric space polarization ratio – fractal dimension. We reason also upon the advantage of the multifractal approach with respect to the mono-fractal analysis for study of the earthquake preparation dynamics.

Fractal analysis of ULF geomagnetic data associated with the Guam Earthquake on August 8, 1993

This paper presents a fractal analysis of the ULF electromagnetic data obtained at Guam observatory during a strong (Ms=8.0) earthquake occurred on August 8, 1993 near the Guam island. We have already reported the presence of seismogenic ULF emissions for this quake (Hayakawa et al., GRL, 1996). The chosen period covered four months before and two months after the earthquake. It was found that the spectrum of emissions at noon exhibited a power law behavior f−β which is typical for self‐organized critical dynamics. The slope of the spectrum in the noon sector fluctuates in a range from 2.5 to 0.7 with a tendency to gradually decrease during the process of the earthquake preparation. We consider this to be a candidate for a precursory signature. The similar effect was found for the night sector. We suggest that the focal zone was at the critical stage of self‐organized criticality process before the quake, related to active microfracturing processes followed by the generation of ULF emissions as we detected.

Great guam earthquake (M sz=8.1) and time changes in geomagnetic transfer functions

Great guam earthquake (M sz=8.1) and time changes in geomagnetic transfer functions

Ultra-low-frequency magnetic fields during the Guam earthquake of 8 August 1993 and their interpretation

Ultra-low-frequency (ULF) emissions have been observed as a precursor to the Guam earthquake on August 8, 1993 ( M s=8.0) using data from a proton fluxgate magnetometer. The details of this analysis have been published in Hayakawa et al. [Hayakawa, M., Kawate, R., Molchanov, O.A., Yumoto, K., 1995. Results of ultra-low-frequency magnetic field measurements during the Guam earthquake of 8 August 1993. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press]. This paper briefly reviews the essential features of the ULF signatures of the Guam earthquake. Theoretical estimations are presented in this paper to understand the frequency dependence and intensity of these ULF emissions. Comparisons are made with experimental observations.

Faulting process of the August 8, 1993, Guam earthquake: A thrust event in an otherwise weakly coupled subduction zone

We study a large Mw = 7.7 earthquake that occurred on June 8, 1993, slightly offshore and under the island of Guam in the southern Mariana island arc. From a complete study of P and SH body waves, a relocation of the aftershocks, and the subevents of the main shock, we propose a relatively simple model of the rupture process of this event. We propose that this earthquake ruptured a shallow‐dipping thrust fault that corresponds to the subduction interface under Guam. Like many other earthquakes, this event started with a small foreshock and was followed by two large energy release events located to the northeast of the epicenter along the subduction zone. The rupture process had a relatively short duration of about 32 s, with a weak starting phase that lasted about 8 s. Seismic moments estimated from body waves, surface waves, and Global Positioning System (GPS) are very similar of the order of 4.5 × 1020 N m. The displacement field produced by our best model was compared to the GPS measurements of coseismic slip obtained by Beavan et al. [1994]. We find an excellent agreement both in displacement direction and magnitude between the predicted and observed GPS displacements. This appears to be then the largest earthquake to have occurred on a shallow‐dipping thrust fault in the Mariana subduction zone during this century. Its occurrence requires a reassessment of the concept of seismic coupling in this subduction zone.

Results of ultra‐low‐frequency magnetic field measurements during the Guam Earthquake of 8 August 1993

We report the results of measurements of ultra‐low‐frequency magnetic noise during a large earthquake (Ms=7.1) at Guam of 8 August, 1993 (depth ∼60 km). The ULF observing system is located in the Guam Island, about 65 km from the epicenter. Several distinct features of this analysis are summarized. (1) We have proposed rather sophisticated statistical analyses (monthly mean, standard deviation) in order to estimate the wave intensity and polarization (i.e. ratio Z/H). (2) A comparison between the ULF wave activity and ΣKp, is useful in distinguishing between the space geomagnetic pulsations and non‐space emissions. (3) Then, the use of the ratio (Z/H) is found to be of essential importance in discrimating the emissions presumably of seismic origin from space plasma waves. (4) The statistical analysis of the temporal evolution of this ratio, has yielded that it shows a broad maximum only about one month before the earthquake, and this suggests that the emissions during this period are very likely to be magnetic precursors. (5) The temporal variation of Z component is similar to that for the Loma Prieta earthquake such that it shows a broad maximum ten days ∼ two weeks before the earthquake and another increase a few days before the earthquake. (6) The emissions presumably associated with the earthquake are of noise‐like nature, and their main frequency is 0.02 ∼ 0.05 Hz (with maximum intensity ∼0.1 nT).

1993年8月8日グアム島沖地震による津波

Accompanied with the Guam earthquake on Aug. 8, 1993 (epicenter: 13.0°N, 144.7°E, d=61km, Ms=8.0, USGS), a tsunami was observed at many tidal stations in Japan. Tsunami magnitude and the behavior of propagation are investigated, comparing with those of the 1990 Saipan tsunami (m=2). The travel times in West Japan were about 3.5 hours. The maximum double amplitude at Muroto and Tosa-Shimizu near the tip of peninsula reached 84cm with the wave-period of 8 minutes, and those in the Ryukyu Islands were relatively small. The distribution pattan of wave-heights is similar to that of the 1990 Saipan tsunami. By judging from the diagram of the attenuation of wave-height with distance, the tsunami magnitude on the Imamura-Iida scale was determined to be m=2.5. Although wave-heights of the present tsunami are about 1.5 times higher than those of the 1990 Saipan tsunami, the magnitude value is normal compared to earthquake with similar size in other regions.

Analysis of seismological and tsunami data from the 1993 Guam earthquake

The fault parameters of the Guam earthquake of August 8, 1993 are estimated from seismological analyses, and the possibility of identifying the actual fault plane from tsunami waveforms is tested. The Centroid Moment Tensor solution of long-period surface waves shows one nodal plane shallowly dipping to the north and the other nodal plane steeply dipping to the south. The seismic moment is 3.5×1020 Nm and the corresponding moment magnitude is 7.7. The Moment Tensor Rate Function inversion ofP waves also yields a similar focal mechanism and seismic moment. The point source depth is estimated as 40–50 km.This earthquake generated tsunamis that propagated toward the Japanese coast along the Izu-Bonin-Mariana ridge system. The tsunamis are recorded on ocean bottom pressure gauges and tide gauges. Numerical computation of tsunamis shows that the computed waveforms from the two possible fault planes match well with the observed tsunami waveforms. The numerical computation also shows that the tsunami waveforms at Guam Island, just above the fault, should contain useful information regarding the identification of the actual fault plane. However, the current sampling rate of the tide gauges is so small that the records cannot help the identification.

The August 8, 1993 Guam earthquake

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