Growth Scenarios Research Articles

Projecting short to medium-term effects of carbon emissions trading on Serbia's GDP

This paper presents an approach to assess the short to medium-term effects of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), an economic and climate policy instrument aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on GDP from the expenditure side. The analysis focuses on Serbia's electricity sector, which relies heavily on lignite-based production dominated by state-owned enterprises. The obtained projections suggest that in the short term, the introduction of an ETS may lead to slower GDP growth compared to official forecasts. However, by 2030, accelerated growth is observed, eventually converging with and even surpassing the projected growth in scenarios characterized by higher investments.

Mathematical modeling of Ethiopia's energy demand by sectors and energy types, with forecasts for the next 30 years

Due to the scarcity of economic resources, it is vital to optimize everything so that the supply and demand lines intersect in an optimized quantity, with no shortage or surplus of a provided item or service. Energy supply contains both surplus and shortage, thus estimating the amount of projected energy demand is a key work that must be completed. The objective of this paper is generating a mathematical model based on the actual data for thirty years forecasting. To create a mathematical model using actual data from the last fifteen years, a model that can represent the past trend and be used for future forecasting. This study provides a general overview of Ethiopia's current energy requirement with different energy type as well as sector-specific energy demand and estimates for different economic growth scenarios up to 2052. This model was created using a linear regression polynomial fit through Origin graphic and analysis software, and an econometric model was also applied. GDP was utilized as an independent variable in the economic model to determine the trend of energy consumption. Another input-output model is also used for multilinear regression to evaluate the change of four variables, GDP, population growth, urbanization growth rate, and general inflation rate, which was quantitatively linked with total energy requirement using Weka software. The mathematical model developed through linear and multilinear regression has been validated by using a different assumption on GDP growth based on past growth rate as low, medium and high growth rate and using the mathematical formula to generate an energy demand trend that can be compared with the actual trend; as a result, all the mathematical model that are generated has been found to be valid for the purpose of the intended work. Based on the generated mathematical model and different GDP growth rate scenario as low, medium, business as usual (BAU) and high a future energy demand was forecasted up to 2052 for thirty years. The model's results can help energy planners ensure that the country's supply capacity keeps up with predicted energy demand growth.

Assessment of Urban Resilience to Floods: A Spatial Planning Framework for Cities

Urbanization-led economic growth drives infrastructure investments and population accumulation in cities, hence exploiting natural resources at an extreme rate. In this context, coastal cities have become vulnerable to climate change-induced extreme weather events and human-made disasters in recent history, where effective measures to improve the resilience of cities are pivotal for developing sustainable living environments. This study proposes a framework for assessing urban resilience to natural disasters (floods) using bottom-up spatial interactions among natural, physical, and social systems within cities and regions. It is noted that seminal studies focus on either the mitigation or adaptation strategies within urban environments to assess disaster resilience, where limited multidisciplinary and operational models hinder evaluations at the city scale. Therefore, urban system interactions and quantifiable parameters proposed in this framework are essential for policymakers and disaster management agencies in the timely allocation of resources to optimize the recovery process. Moreover, spatial planning agencies can adopt resilience mapping to identify the potential risk zones and orient sustainable land use management. Urban resilience can be embodied in spatial strategies with the operational framework proposed here, and future urban growth scenarios can be tested in multiple disaster conditions.

Evaluating Fracture Energy Predictions Using Phase-Field and Gradient-Enhanced Damage Models for Elastomers

Abstract Recently, the phase-field method has been increasingly used for brittle fractures in soft materials like polymers, elastomers, and biological tissues. When considering finite deformations to account for the highly deformable nature of soft materials, the convergence of the phase-field method becomes challenging, especially in scenarios of unstable crack growth. To overcome these numerical difficulties, several approaches have been introduced, with artificial viscosity being the most widely utilized. This study investigates the energy release rate due to crack propagation in hyperelastic nearly-incompressible materials and compares the phase-field method and a novel gradient-enhanced damage (GED) approach. First, we simulate unstable loading scenarios using the phase-field method, which leads to convergence problems. To address these issues, we introduce artificial viscosity to stabilize the problem and analyze its impact on the energy release rate utilizing a domain J-integral approach giving quantitative measurements during crack propagation. It is observed that the measured energy released rate during crack propagation does not comply with the imposed critical energy release rate, and shows non-monotonic behavior. In the second part of the paper, we introduce a novel stretch-based GED model as an alternative to the phase-field method for modeling crack evolution in elastomers. It is demonstrated that in this method, the energy release rate can be obtained as an output of the simulation rather than as an input which could be useful in the exploration of rate-dependent responses, as one could directly impose chain-level criteria for damage initiation. We show that while this novel approach provides reasonable results for fracture simulations, it still suffers from some numerical issues that strain-based GED formulations are known to be susceptible to.

Spatiotemporal Eolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Taihang Mountains Based on MCCA Land Use Scenario Simulation

Ecosystem service value （ESV） is an important indicator related to regional ecological well-being, and understanding its evolution can provide references for regional ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. The Taihang Mountains, an important ecological security barrier in North China, were taken as an example. Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020, this study revealed the changes in land use and ecosystem service value in the Taihang Mountains and conducted multi-scenario simulations of ESV in 2035. Additionally, the land use transfer matrix, improved equivalent factor method, and mixed-cell cellular automata model were used. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land use types in the Taihang Mountains were cropland, forest land, and grassland. The area of cropland and grassland significantly decreased, whereas the area of forest land and construction land remained stable. The scale of land use transfer was 2.06×104 km2, with a high intensity of transfer from cropland and grassland to other areas, mainly guided by ecological construction. ② The ecosystem service functions in the Taihang Mountains were mainly dominated by regulation services, and the overall ESV showed a stable upward trend, increasing by 1.51×1010 RMB from 2000 to 2020. The spatial distribution of ESV was uneven, and the polarization phenomenon was evident, with high-value areas concentrated in the high-altitude areas in the northern and central-southern parts and low-value areas mostly located in the flat foothills and central plateaus on both sides. They were greatly influenced by human activities. ③ By 2035, compared with that in 2020, the ESV in the Taihang Mountains was projected to increase by 5.37 billion RMB in the natural growth scenario, 4.34 billion RMB in the urban development scenario, and 7.64 billion RMB in the ecological tourism scenario, mainly due to the conversion from cropland and grassland to forest land. The natural growth scenario showed a high intensity of spatial transformation of ESV, the urban development scenario experienced severe ESV loss in cropland, and the ecological tourism scenario showed a significant increase in ESV, which was an effective path for promoting green development in the Taihang Mountains. The research results can provide scientific references for the healthy management and sustainable development of the ecosystem in the Taihang Mountains.

Biodiversity Conservation Strategies From No Net Loss to Net Gain. A Multidimensional Accounting Method

AbstractBiodiversity credits are increasingly recognized as a potential instrument to incentivize and bolster efforts in biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, their efficacy is impeded by a dearth of research. To mitigate these constraints, this study introduces a comprehensive and integrated framework for appraising biodiversity credits. Drawing upon the Emergy Accounting methodology, the framework encompasses four key perspectives: Emergy‐based Ecosystem Potential (EEP), Emergy‐based Ecosystem Network (EEN), Emergy‐based “Species' to Human” contributions (ESH), and Emergy‐based Species' Significance. Furthermore, this study scrutinizes the trajectory of biodiversity credits across 31 provinces spanning from 2000 to 2050, considering 220 distinct scenarios. The findings reveal that China has attained the no net loss (NNL) objective concerning conventional area‐based conservation targets, with forest cover encompassing 27% of the total land area. However, biodiversity credits at the ecosystem level exhibit an escalating trend, with growth rates ranging from 0.73% to 1.0%, while credits at the species level depict a decremental trend, with an approximate growth rate of −0.21%. Under a scenario of moderate growth, projections for the year 2030 indicate that the EEP credit is poised to accrue approximately 4.76E + 20 solar emjoules (sej), the EEN credit is forecasted to accumulate around 1.03E + 21 sej, and the ESH credit is anticipated to decline by 1.46E + 23 sej within the context of the NNL paradigm. These outcomes underscore the necessity of delineating differentiated biodiversity goals, and furnish insights into the dynamics of supply and demand pertaining to biodiversity credits within the ambit of offsetting schemes across the nation.

Urban growth simulation guided by ecosystem service trade-offs in Wuhan metropolitan area: Methods and implications for spatial planning

The effective integration of ecosystem services (ESs) and urban growth simulation is crucial for spatial planning decisions that support sustainable and high-quality development. Interactions (i.e., trade-offs, synergies, and irrelevance) generally exist among ESs, however, few studies have been done on the methodology for simulating urban growth that optimizes the synergistic effect of ESs. In this study, the Wuhan metropolitan area was taken as the research area. Four key ESs in 2000, 2010, and 2020: water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and soil retention (SR) were evaluated by using the InVEST model. Then the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was applied to optimally allocate ESs trade-offs and identify ecological priority protection areas (EPPAs). Finally, the PLUS model was used to simulate urban growth scenarios under different levels of ESs protection constraints and propose spatial planning strategies. The results revealed the following. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the three ESs (i.e., WY, CS, and HQ) exhibited the spatial distribution pattern with high in the east and low in the west, and higher in the woodland than in built-up areas, except SR, which remained at a weak level throughout the region. (2) During the 20 years, SR and the other three ESs, HQ and CS showed a synergistic relationship; WY exhibited a very weak trade-off with HQ; and WY and CS changed from a very weak trade-off to a weak synergy. (3) Seven ecosystem service patterns (ESPs) were generated, and ESP 5 was compared as the ideal option. The weights of SR, WY, CS, and HQ in this pattern were 0.063, 0.187, 0.313, and 0.437, respectively. (4) By 2030, the built-up areas will exhibit edge expansion and interconnection development trends, with the high-constraint ecological protection scenario as the most compact mode, and the spatial structure of “two districts, one axis, four cities as one” is consistent with the development tendency. Our findings can help to enrich the method of urban growth management oriented by ecological protection, and provide a scientific basis for ecological environment restoration and land use spatial planning practices.

Distributed battery energy storage systems for deferring distribution network reinforcements under sustained load growth scenarios

Energy storage systems can be leveraged in electricity distribution network planning as mitigation alternatives to traditional grid reinforcements if they are strategically installed and operated to reduce congestion and voltage limit violations. This paper examines the technical and economic viability of distributed battery energy storage systems owned by the system operator as an alternative to distribution network reinforcements. The case study analyzes the installation of battery energy storage systems in a real 500-bus Spanish medium voltage grid under sustained load growth scenarios. The results show that, in general, dedicated battery energy storage systems are only a cost-efficient alternative in distribution system planning under very specific conditions, such as when low load growth rates are expected. Nevertheless, they are only required for peak shaving a few days per year. For the analyzed case study, the recoverable portion of their total cost through deferral of distribution system upgrades is higher than the fraction of cycles required for peak shaving under all sustained load growth scenarios. Therefore, it is also explored if mobile battery energy storage systems, capital grants, and revenue stacking can enable battery energy storage systems to become an efficient distribution system planning alternative.

DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO SELECTION AND ORIENTATION PROPOSAL FOR KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS SUPPORTING THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF DIEN BIEN PROVINCIAL PLANNING (2021-2030) WITH A VISION TO 2050

The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for the "Dien Bien Provincial Planning for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050" is conducted on the basis of Viet Nam's legislative framework, national and regional planning, as well as the economic development orientation of Dien Bien province. In this article, potentially environmentally impacting content of the planning will be discussed, in which, development scenarios will be proposed and feasible scenario for the development of Dien Bien Province, the development targets, and orientations of important economic sectors will be selected. Three growth scenarios have been proposed for Dien Bien Province: the baseline scenario, the high growth scenario, and the breakthrough scenario. The most feasible one is the high growth scenario. In this scenario, the main specific targets by 2030 are: The average economic growth rate in the 2021-2030 period is 10.51%/year, in which the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector and the industry - construction sector will grow at the rate of 6.54% and 18.64%/year, respectively, in which the figure for the industry sector is 17.30%/year and that of the service sector is 7.15%/year. Regarding the economic structure by 2030, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector will account for 12.0%; the industry - construction sector will account for 44.3% (in which the share of the industry sector is 15.4%) and the figure for the service sector is 39.6% of the province’s Gross National Produc (GRDP). The research oriented the development of a number of important sectors such as: industry, construction, tourism, trade and services, and agriculture, forestry and fishery. Selecting feasible development scenarios with specific targets will contribute significantly to proposing development orientations for sectors having great impacts on the environment to support the SEA of Dien Bien Provincial Planning for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050.

Investigation of DG units influence on 66 kV sub-transmission system network considering region load growth: a case study

Abstract Voltage breakdown in sub-transmission networks resulting from an increase in load demand can be addressed by incorporating distributed generation (DG) units such as hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and geothermal in some buses. This approach can lower power losses and the price of the primary generated energy while increasing network dependability and efficiency. Feasibility of dispersed generation integration & its effect on sub-transmission system operation were investigated using Ben Walied 66 kV sub-transmission network in Libya as a state. This study presents modified particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to select the best option with dispersed generation units under various operating conditions. The Ben Walied 66 kV sub-transmission network has been subject of effects research on both normal operation and load growth scenarios. The goal of this study was to find best way to adjust penetration level of the three DGs in response to changes in the network loading. Three DG units have been refitted to study the effects on test networks for sub-transmission, which consist of 30 and 51 buses. A comparison analysis shows that while the ideal locations of DG units remain constant with load expansion, the optimal solution for the penetration level percentage of three DG units was boosted by new optimal sizes. Research has been done on how the power factor of distributed generators (DGs) affects the practical performance of 66 kV networks in steady-state conditions. The integration of DG units in regulating these losses and voltage variations is demonstrated by the results, which indicate that the ideal solution for DG unit’s power factor was at a value of 0.87 lagging.

Asan Cups: navigating blue oceans in menstrual hygiene sustainability

Learning outcomes After completion of the case study, students will be able to understand the format of for-profit social enterprise working for menstrual hygiene sustainability and its contribution toward U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, to appreciate the company’s alignment with the triple bottom line framework, to analyze the blue ocean mechanism that the company has developed to create an impact and to critique the strategies the Asan Cups company could adopt to increase its market share and growth. Case overview/synopsis Asan Cups was a for-profit social enterprise founded by Ira Guha in 2021. The company crafted reusable menstrual cups from liquid silicone, sporting a patented design in India, the UK, Europe and the USA. Successfully retailing its products in India, the UK and Europe, Asan Cups operated on a bootstrap model with a compact team of four, led by its visionary founder. From the get-go, the company embraced a compelling 1-for-1 donation initiative. For every cup sold, Asan Cups generously donated another to women who could not afford it. Collaborating with nongovernmental organizations, schools, educational institutions and social workers, the company spearheaded campaigns to heighten menstrual hygiene awareness. This proactive approach aimed to boost the acceptance of menstrual cups among rural women and championed the cause of environmental sustainability. The company did not just stop at providing an eco-friendly alternative. Asan Cups fervently educated the masses on the detrimental environmental impact of traditional disposable period products like sanitary pads and tampons. Fast-forwarding to 2023, Asan Cups had garnered approximately 30,000 users, with the adoption rate steadily climbing. The company strategically used an education-intensive model to foster awareness about period products in collaboration with partners nationwide. However, being a for-profit entity, the founder, Guha, was at a crossroads. Balancing the need for profitability, there was mounting pressure to explore additional revenue streams and expand operations and market reach. The dilemma loomed large: opt for a quicker marketing strategy or stay true to the company’s foundational education-centered approach. This case study delves into the dynamic strategies, impactful operations and growth scenarios Asan Cups navigated since its inception. It examines the pivotal choices faced by the founder and explores potential strategies for sustained growth. Complexity academic level This case study can be used at both undergraduate and master’s levels. The case study will be handy for strategic management and business strategy courses and can also be used for social entrepreneurship, marketing and entrepreneurship courses. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 11: Strategy.

The Impacts of Urban Population Growth and Shrinkage on the Urban Land Use Efficiency: A Case Study of the Northeastern Region of China

In the context of rapid urbanization, urban population differentiation has become increasingly pronounced. Regional development strategies based on growth scenarios often lead to continuous expansion, regardless of urban population status. Such “one-size-fits-all” models exacerbate resource waste and negatively impact urban land use efficiency (ULUE). This study aims to explore the mechanisms by which urban population growth and shrinkage (UPGS) affect ULUE, with the goal of enhancing ULUE and promoting sustainable urban development. We analyzed 34 prefecture-level cities in China’s three northeastern provinces. First, we identified UPGS using population data. We then employed a three-stage SBM-DEA model to measure ULUE from 2000 to 2020. Spatial analysis methods were used to examine the spatiotemporal characteristics and correlations between UPGS and ULUE. Additionally, mediating effect models and spatial Durbin models were utilized to empirically test the impact processes, mechanisms, and spatial heterogeneity. Our findings reveal that: (1) Over the past 20 years, urban population shrinkage in northeastern China has intensified, and significant regional disparities in urban development are evident. (2) Population growth positively influences ULUE, while population shrinkage inhibits its improvement. (3) Economic development, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrading are key factors in enhancing ULUE in this region, while the impact of public services on ULUE varies significantly at different stages of urban development. (4) Economic development, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrading exhibit spatial spillover effects, whereas public services are constrained by regional limitations, resulting in minimal spatial spillover effects. To foster coordinated regional development, this study proposes policy recommendations, including strengthening support for resource-dependent cities, optimizing the allocation of public resources, and promoting technological innovation and industrial diversification.

Spatially explicit simulation and forecasting of urban growth using weights of evidence based cellular automata model in a millennium city of India

The present study focuses on quantifying and simulating the future urban growth based on the land use/land cover (LULC) data created from the Landsat images of the year 1999, 2011, and 2022. These LULC maps help in analysing the expansion of urban areas over the years and forecast their potential growth in the future. The spatio-temporal processes of urban growth are quantified, and future patterns are simulated and forecasted using Weights of Evidence based Cellular Automata model built in Dinamica EGO (Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) platform. The process of urban growth was manifested through prominent contributing factors of infill expansion namely, distance to built-up areas, distance to main roads, population density, and public services etc. The model's performance was evaluated using Kappa statistics and the percentage of correct prediction (PCP) based two-way comparison method. For this purpose, the simulated map was first compared with the observed information of year 2022 using Kappa indices followed by the PCP value (90.40%) exhibiting high predictive ability of the model. These findings corroborate that the model can forecast the future urban growth scenarios effectively with reasonable accuracy. Based on the outcomes, the forecasting of future urban growth scenarios for years 2033 and 2044 was accomplished. Analysis of the LULC changes displays that urban land use will experience the highest increase. Growth in the study area is predicted to increase by 23.5% and 26.7% in year 2033 and 2044 respectively where new urban settlements can appear. The results demonstrated that an integrated geospatial model provides essential information about the pattern, simulation, and prediction of urban growth associated with various driving variables.

Magnetization and phase transformation in Fe-Ga and Fe-Ge alloys

The magnetic properties and structural states of Fe-Ga and Fe-Ge alloys, known for their large magnetostriction, have been investigated. Experimental characterizations are supported by ab initio calculations and Monte Carlo simulations to reveal the complex interplay between magnetic properties and structural changes. Our findings are in agreement with previous investigations and show that the Curie temperature (TC) of these alloys changes gradually with increasing alloying element concentration while the A2 solid solution is being realized. Further alloying of Fe-Ga leads to the transition from a single-phase to a two-phase A2 + D03 state and results in two distinct TC values. At the same time Fe-Ge shows a more complex behavior with several phase transitions influencing the magnetic ordering temperatures. Theoretical calculations suggest a significant correlation between the magnetic moments, exchange interactions, and observed TC trends. It is shown that the D03 phase is characterized by the lowest TC among other phases. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that in ferromagnetic state of Fe-Ge alloy the D03 ordering develops homogeneously, while in Fe-Ga it follows a nucleation and growth scenario.

Urban growth simulation and scenario projection for the arid regions using heuristic cellular automata

Arid regions tend to form compact urban patterns that have significant implications on urban growth and future urban patterns. Spatial simulation and projection using cellular automata (CA)-based models are important for achieving sustainable urban development in arid regions. In response to this need, we developed a new CA model (GSA-CA) using the gravitational search algorithm (GSA) to capture and project urban growth patterns in arid regions. We calibrated the GSA-CA model for the arid city of Urumqi in Northwest China from 2000 to 2010, and validated the model from 2010 to 2020, and then applied to project urban growth in 2040. The results indicated that the optimal performance of the model was achieved when the fraction of the population was 0.5. GSA-CA achieved an overall accuracy of 98.42% and a figure of merit (FOM) of 43.03% for the year 2010, and an overall accuracy of 98.52% with FOM of 37.64% for 2020. The results of the study help to adjust urban planning and development policies. The developed model has the potential to be employed in simulating urban growth and future scenarios in arid regions globally, including Northwest China and Africa.

A review on the application of advanced soil and plant sensors in the agriculture sector

Sensors implemented in agriculture play a significant role in soil and plant growth and enable real-time physical and chemical interactions in the environment, such as temperature, moisture/humidity, pH, and contaminant levels. Additionally, these sensors provide essential data that can enhance crop growth scenarios, resist biotic and abiotic stresses, and improve crop production. This article provides a thorough examination of the evolving landscape of agricultural sensor technologies, perspectives, and challenges in the field. Currently, some of the key soil sensors used in agricultural programs, include those that measure moisture, temperatures, pH, organic matter components, insects, and soil pollutants. On the other hand, nanobiotechnology sensors implement optical, wireless, or electrical signals to provide information about plant signaling molecules related to the conditions of agronomic equipment. We shed more light on the use of nanomaterial-facilitated transport of genetically encoded sensors as devices for the investigation and advancement of advanced plant sensors. Innovative technologies, including wireless sensor networks and plant wearables, are also addressed with regard to their potential for precision agriculture. The paper concludes by presenting future perspectives and difficulties in the fields of soil sensors and intelligent agriculture. In summary, we provide a comprehensive and forward-looking perspective on the potential of nanotechnology to facilitate the development of intelligent plant sensors. These sensors are capable of communicating with and controlling electrical equipment, with the aim of tracking and improving the output and resources applied to individual plants.

Environmental potentials from wood cascading: A future-oriented consequential yet dynamic approach considering market and time-dependent biogenic carbon effects for selected scenarios under German conditions

As sustainable forestry limits the roundwood supply, wood cascading emerges as a promising concept to meet the growing demand resulting from Germany's transition to a bioeconomy. To assess the environmental impacts of wood cascading resulting from shifting the incineration of recovered wood and the associated substitution of future energy mixes and materials, a consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) of a wood cascading system providing glued-laminated timber (GLT), particleboard, heat, and electricity is conducted. The assessment of environmental consequences requires a holistic approach, including future-oriented German energy and market scenarios. Furthermore, to analyze the impact of biogenic carbon dynamics, this CLCA was coupled with a dynamic life cycle assessment (DLCA) considering forest growth scenarios and temporal aspects. The results indicate a strong influence of market shifts related to material substitution, followed by energy substitution on the environmental impacts of wood cascading. In fact, the results endorse the implementation of the concept of high-quality wood cascading for substituting non-wood products in Germany, as a transformational path towards a bioeconomy and the achievement of net greenhouse gas neutrality. Compared to the effects of the material and energy substitution scenarios, the forest growth scenarios, which focus on tree species composition influenced by future temperature change and CO2 concentration scenarios, only show a minor influence on global warming impacts. As the findings from applying DLCA contrast with the static approach, it emphasizes the importance of a time-differentiated analysis of biogenic carbon in the evaluation of wood cascading.

Towards carbon neutrality: The decoupling effect of industrial restructuring and non-fossil energy substitution on carbon emissions

China's carbon neutrality target requires early carbon decoupling of economic growth. Utilizing the input-output and programming technique, we investigate the carbon mitigation potential of industrial restructuring along with the substitution of non-fossil energy for electric production. Given the constraints of manufacturing stabilization and employment volatility magnitude, this paper finds that industrial restructuring can mitigate carbon emissions by 7.47 %. Besides, non-fossil energy substitution in electric production can strengthen the inhibiting effect, reducing carbon emissions from 7.47 % (currently about 31.5 % for non-fossil power generation) to 28.99 % (about 80 % in the future). This paper also simulates several scenarios for growth rates and estimates the prospective carbon reduction for the fourteenth Five-Year Plan in China. We indicate that the rising share of non-fossil energy is the linchpin to reducing energy-related carbon emissions, which can achieve absolute decoupling if the share of non-fossil energy in power generation reaches 67.1 % under different growth scenarios. This paper argues that carbon-based performance indicators, e.g., carbon intensity and carbon emissions, are more appropriate for local bureaucrats than energy-based ones. We provide valuable implications for the carbon decoupling path.

Scaling up solar and wind electricity: empirical modelling and a disruptive scenario for their deployments in Aotearoa New Zealand

ABSTRACT Deployment of wind and solar electricity technologies is crucial for the energy transition, yet anticipated deployment rates differ widely often underestimating actual deployments. This issue is significant for countries like Aotearoa New Zealand, leading the way in major energy transitions. This study addresses two main issues: the historical underestimation of deployment rates and the need to synthesise various future scenarios to assess their potential impacts on the energy system. To address these problems, an empirical modelling approach based on logistic growth is adopted to create and analyse scenarios for the deployment of solar and wind technologies in New Zealand. We propose two scenarios: a reference growth scenario, which represents prevailing estimations for the deployment of solar and wind from previous forecasts; and a disruptive scenario, which anticipates a more rapid deployment pace. Both scenarios envision phasing out fossil fuels by 2030 but differ in the remaining electricity supply. In the disruptive scenario, the installed electricity generation broadens, in which solar and wind generation could represent 72% of the electricity generation capacity by 2050. Our findings emphasise the transformative potential of rapid wind and solar technologies deployment and highlight the importance of preparing for a disruptive future that challenges conventional expectations.

Multi–Scenario Prediction of Land Cover Changes and Habitat Quality Based on the FLUS–InVEST Model in Beijing

As urbanization accelerates worldwide, understanding the impact of urban expansion on habitat quality has become increasingly critical in environmental science research. This study examines the impact of urban expansion on habitat quality in Beijing, forecasting land cover changes and ecological effects by 2030. Using CA–Markov and FLUS models, the research analyzes habitat quality from 2000 to 2030 through the InVEST model, revealing a significant urban land increase of 1316.47 km2 and a consequent habitat quality decline. Predictions for 2030 indicate varying habitat quality outcomes across three scenarios: ecological priority (0.375), natural growth (0.373), and urban development (0.359). We observed that the natural growth scenario forecasts a further decline in habitat quality, primarily due to increased low–value habitat regions. Conversely, the ecological priority scenario projects a notable improvement in habitat quality. To mitigate habitat degradation in Beijing and enhance regional habitat quality and ecological conditions, it is recommended to control urban land cover expansion, adopt effective ecological conservation policies, and systematically carry out national spatial restructuring and ecological restoration. This research provides vital decision–making support for urban planning and ecological conservation, emphasizing the need for comprehensive land cover and ecological strategies in urban development. Additionally, our findings and methodologies are applicable to other rapidly urbanizing cities worldwide. This demonstrates the broader applicability and relevance of our research, providing a framework for sustainable urban planning in diverse global contexts.