Growth Rate Of National Income Research Articles

An Evaluation of the Performance of Government of Pakistan

The use of social and economic indicators to evaluate and rank governments’ performance is often found in literature. The Anglo-Commonwealth and Scandinavian countries rest on the surveillance of work in the various ministries. This performance accounting approach thus becomes crucial for any regime to perform superlatively to their predecessors and thus it provides the basis to suggest why it is important to inspect governance of a government. Government’s efficacy also depends on the magnitude of the welfare that it is able to achieve. Debate on welfare is dated back to Adam Smith at-least. Now the question is what should be the welfare gauging indicators. We understand that, issues related to poverty, land utilisation, agriculture and industrial sectors, health services, education, growth rate of national income, per capita income, employment, etc. are important factors that can explain welfare status of a nation. Thus by developing an index based on performance in these areas, various political regimes can be evaluated and ranked. These evaluations and rankings set standards for future governments to improve. Thus these studies can be useful for developing and improving social welfare standards.

The Reality of Sustainable Development in the Developing Countries and its Impact on Foreign Trade for the Period 1990-2020

Sustainable development means development that seeks to meet the needs of current generations without compromising the capabilities of future generations. As for foreign trade, it is one of the most important economic activities that cause increased production and raise the growth rates of national income. Usually, foreign trade is affected by sustainable development variables, until it became necessary Developing countries should adopt the principles of this type of development to meet their requirements, build and develop their societies and change the reality in which they are. The importance of the research appears from the importance of sustainable development for its role in increasing the values of foreign trade and making its economic activities continue to progress continuously over time. So the research aims to study the impact of sustainable development variables on foreign trade for a sample of developing countries that included (Egypt, Tunisia, and Thailand). Based on the hypothesis that the variables of sustainable development contribute to different effects in foreign trade. In order to prove the hypothesis of the research, it was relied on time series data for the study variables during the period 1990-2020 using the statistical program EViews-10, and the ordinary least squares method as it reflects the changes in foreign trade of each country. This study, a number of conclusions were reached, the most important of which was the contribution of sustainable development variables to achieving quantitative, qualitative and positive developments in foreign trade, being a comprehensive and complex process with economic and social dimensions directed towards bringing about structural changes in the field of international exchange. By adopting development, policies that stimulate production, as this plays a very important role in increasing the values of foreign trade for countries the study sample.

ЗАСТОСУВАННЯ КЛАСТЕРНОГО АНАЛІЗУ В ТУРИСТИЧНІЙ ІНДУСТРІЇ ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКОГО ПРОСТОРУ

It is determined that the cluster approach is a necessary tool for creating the spatial development of the world's tourist regions, and the focus on the formation of competitive advantages of tourist clusters will lead to the production of creative innovative tourism products. The study examines the competitiveness index according to a set of indicators, which are grouped into four subindexes – environmental friendliness, public policy and the creation of favorable conditions, infrastructure, natural and cultural resources. A cluster analysis of the factors that create the regional potential of clusters in the tourism industry of the European space has been carried out. The features of the competitive environment in the tourism services market and its impact on the competitiveness of economic entities of the tourism industry are considered. The number and composition of tourism clusters in the EU member states is demonstrated. With the help of cluster analysis and audit, more competitive tourist clusters of the European space have been identified. A correlation analysis was carried out between the general competitiveness index of the EU member states in the field of travel and tourism and its subindexes. The results of this analysis confirm the existence of a direct relationship between these components. In order to characterize tourist clusters and determine the degree of development of their tourism potential, the process of combining clusters by the Ward method and the K-means method was used, which made it possible to determine various levels of competitiveness of the travel and tourism sector. The forecasting tool is applied by the method of extrapolation of market trends and indicators. The forecast efficiency of the development of the regional potential of tourist clusters is calculated using the growth rates of the final product. As the main indicators of forecasting, such indicators as the growth rate of national income, the rate of dynamics of visits to tourist sites and recreation in the country, the parameter of the degree of labor intensity, labor productivity growth, the parameter of the degree of capital intensity, the growth of capital return are selected.

كلية التربية / الجامعة العراقية

The research was based on important basic principles that economic development, production development, and exploitation of available human and natural resources have a positive and effective impact on the development of the industrial reality in countries, and therefore this will reflect on the increase in the growth rates of national income and the increase in the economic well-being of society, that the optimal use of some economic resources would developing the industrial reality significantly, as manufacturing, taking care of it, and using it in the correct technical ways is one of the most important means that help in reviving the economy. Especially if the planning policy in the exploitation of human and natural resources is going in the right direction. Human resources are eliminated by unemployment, lack of job opportunities, or disguised unemployment, which is an economic waste in every sense of the word, and it is like the water of a river that does not benefit from it, as if human resources are efficient, they will have to migrate abroad to find job opportunities, or they may satisfied with any work that provides her with a living, even if this work is harmful to moral values, or to effective economic activity, not to mention the useless waste of youth energies, and accordingly there must be quick treatments in the use of human resources in a scientific and thoughtful manner, which is not an abundance of labor Which may lead to inflation without scientific production, but through the exploitation of specialists and competencies and the development of advanced industrial cadres who have the technical expertise capable of developing national production outside the scope of favoritism, while the optimal operation of human resources will lead to the fight against poverty and unemployment, and that the policy of industrialization in its procedures depends on the state’s effort, which is the basis for any economic development. Achieving development is a religious goal for man as God’s successor on earth, and the goal of Islamic economic policy is to achieve human dignity and the interests of society. Excessiveness or neglect between them, just as the Islamic conception of economic activity is a wise concept that combines the moral system with financial growth. As for the natural resources that can be used, whether they are minerals that are in the ground or on its surface, or from agricultural resources of all kinds or animal wealth it must be used in a fixed scientific planned way. It does not mean investing in natural materials wasting them, or using them randomly. Rather, they should be exploited well without extravagance or waste.

Role of tourism industry in generating foreign exchange

Introduction. The tourism industry affects the development of both individual countries and the world economy as a whole. With the expansion of international trade and other forms of international economic relations, raising the level of culture and education, tourism is developing rapidly. Significant impact on the activities of the tourism sector is caused by exchange rate fluctuations. As the tourism industry cannot adjust the exchange rate on its own, it has to adapt to currency fluctuations. Thus, the role of the tourism industry in the formation of foreign currency is significant, so the question of the impact of the tourism industry on the formation of foreign currency is relevant today. The purpose of thepaper is to determine the role of the tourism industry in the formation of foreign currency. Results. International tourism is the most numerous commodity in world foreign trade, and for some countries it is already the most important export sector and foreign exchange earnings. As the world is currently experiencing a global health, social and economic emergency with the COVID-19 pandemic, travel and tourism are among the most affected sectors with local aircraft, closed hotels and travel restrictions in almost all countrieіs. The exchange of foreign currency is associated with the purchase or sale of currency other than their own. The rate at which the currency of one country can be converted into the currency of another country is the unit price in terms of another currency in which the exchange takes place. For the tourism industry, a “strong” currency makes its country less attractive, while travel to countries with a “weak” currency is encouraged. A further fall in the dollar against the euro will mean that Europeans, inspired by the purchasing power of the euro and the low dollar, will be much more likely to visit the United States and countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar as tourists. Conclusion. Thus, on the basis of the conducted analysis it is possible to define that really, there is an interdependence of development of tourist branch and formation of foreign currency in the country. Particular attention should be paid to further study of exchange rate changes and their impact on the intensity of tourism development. In countries where the local currency is pegged to the US dollar, the depreciation of the dollar will also depreciate the local currency. Changes in exchange rates affect the level of price competition in countries, as well as the growth rate of national income.

Fiscal consolidation and economic growth in India: Do policymakers need to shift focus from quantity to quality of fiscal adjustments?

This paper evaluates the impacts of fiscal consolidation programmes and their composition on the growth rate of national income for Indian economy. More specifically the study tries to address two questions that is, composition of consolidation and its resultant impact on growth rate of income and the relative desirability of alternative sources of deficit financing that is, internal versus external borrowing. The study employed time series data from 1990–1991 to 2017–2018 and used the technique of ordinary least square and generalized method of moments. The study finds that, in long run, fiscal consolidation need not be necessarily recessionary in nature. Moreover, the composition of consolidation was found to have a significant impact. The study could not extend empirical support in favour of back‐loaded (spending financed) consolidation design as has been established for advanced economies. Moreover the study could not establish the negative impacts of revenue funded (both tax and non‐tax) fiscal consolidation on the growth rate of economy. The study documented that it is desirable to target expenditures such as subsidies, transfers and interest payments to infuse more discipline. A judicious mixture of both spending cuts and revenue increase may be a better strategy to consolidate in order to have better returns. The study highlighted that the external source of deficit financing is always costlier against the internal borrowings. The study noted that it is imperative on part of policymakers to shift their focus from quantity to the quality of deficits and the resultant consolidation programmes.

Overestimation in the Growth Rates of National Income in Recent Years? – An Analyses Based on Extending GDP04-05 through Other Indicators of Output

Quarterly indices of output like those of Industrial Production, other measures of production like net sales, exports, of companies for which data is available, besides proxies like credit to the sector, and indices of price levels have been used to forward project the growth rates of GDP04-05, for the principal sectors of the National Income Accounts (NAS). These were then compared with the growth rates given by the new Gross Value Added (GVA11-12) at constant price measure. It is very highly probable that some sectors of the National Accounts Statistics (NAS) notably Manufacturing, and Trade, Transport, Storage, Hotels and Communication Sectors were overestimated, especially in periods when the output (economic activity) was slowing down. This questions the use of the new GVA series for macroeconomic (policy) actions, wherein more than extensiveness of coverage, the movements over time of the measure have to be reliable and accurate. This is especially so because manufacturing and its related sector – trade etc., are the core sectors which are responsive to changes in policy and to shocks (that could be countered), wherein there is deep overestimation. Some evening out of the overestimation is noticed over the upswing in the business cycle since 2017:2. However the demonetization which rudely reduced demand did not allow the “phase shifting” and “flattening” aspects, which the new GVA series possibly imposes to be examined in detail, although the same is suggested.

Analysis of the place of Ukraine in the European tourist space

The object of research is the tourism industry of Ukraine. One of the most problematic places is the lack of world-class tourism resources and the inconsistency of tourism policy, limiting the growth rate of the tourism industry. Cluster analysis and modeling of the growth rate of national income from tourism activities are used. The place of Ukraine in the tourist space of Europe is determined. It is emphasized that the national business environment does not contribute to the development of the tourism sector, the level of security in the country has a negative impact, and the tourism sector in Ukraine is not considered a priority. The competitive advantages of Ukraine are the assessment of human resources, the labor market and the protection of health and hygiene. In general, the prerequisites for the proper development of tourism are not sufficiently used in Ukraine. The effectiveness of the functioning of the European tourist space, including Ukraine, is investigated, and significant regional differences in the magnitude of the increase in national income from tourist activities are revealed. In particular, it is noted that the leaders in income received in 2017 are countries such as Cyprus, Malta, Ireland, Luxembourg, Latvia and Lithuania, which received in 2017 approximately 250 million USD income from the tourism industry. Most countries of the European tourist area (Great Britain, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Austria, Greece, Denmark, Portugal, Finland, Sweden, Belgium, Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Croatia, Czech Republic) average had a national income growth from the tourism industry of 170 million SUD. It is determined that Ukraine, in terms of the efficiency of the tourism industry, occupies the last place in the European tourist space (8 million USD of increase in national income from the tourism industry). By determining the competitive advantages and disadvantages of the development of tourism in Ukraine, it is possible to substantiate the foundations of tourism policy in accordance with the national characteristics of the development of the tourism industry of Ukraine.

Of Piketty and Perpetuities

For the first time since independence, in a nation founded in large part on the rejection of a fixed nobility determined by birth and perpetuated by inheritance, America is paving the way for the creation of dynastic family wealth. Abolition or evisceration of the Rule Against Perpetuities in over half the states along with the likely repeal of the federal estate tax mean that there soon will be no obstacles to creating large pools of wealth that will insure lavish incomes to lucky heirs for generations without end. The timing of these legal changes could hardly be worse. Marshaling innovative economic data extending back centuries, Thomas Picketty convincingly argues that the relatively egalitarian incomes enjoyed in developed economies from the end of World War II until around 1980 were an aberration and that we are in the process of returning to the historical norm of much greater income and wealth inequality. The driving force is the return to a world in which the rate of return to capital (r) exceeds the growth rate of national income (g) — another historical norm temporarily abrogated during the 20th century. The wealthy hold an extremely high fraction of national wealth, and when returns to that wealth exceed the growth rate of national income, their relative economic power (and all that goes with that) increases proportionally. The main contribution of this article is, unhappily, to explore reasons that this revival of unending inherited wealth is of even greater concern than previously thought. First and foremost, the savings rate to a significant degree will be set by the dead hand control of those creating perpetual dynastic trust. In order to insure that trust assets keep up with income and beneficiary class growth, settlors will need to mandate very high savings rates for trust income. In the long term excessive savings (in excess of the “golden rule” savings rate), perhaps surprisingly, can actually retard the growth of consumption. In the shorter term, in a well-known phenomenon called the “paradox of thrift,” high savings rates can cause recessions, make them more severe, and increase their duration. Second, beneficiaries of dynastic trusts lack the power to dissipate the pools of family wealth that provide their high incomes. Prodigal children’s spending of principal is a powerful force for reducing inequality and increasing socioeconomic mobility. When not barred from doing so, descendants’ ability to sell trust assets to fund even more lavish lifestyles means that they will buy copious goods and services from those with lower incomes and less wealth. Thus perpetual dynastic family wealth thus imposes real social costs. This article recommends the conventional solution to such negative externalities: calibrated taxation of the anti-social behaviors. Instead of reinstating the Rule Against Perpetuities, this article instead suggests imposing perpetuities taxes on dynastic trusts with rates set, as closely as possible, to equal the costs imposed in terms of lower growth; more frequent and sharper business cycles; higher inequality; and lower socioeconomic mobility.

Determinants of the Size of Public Expenditure in Nigeria

Analysis of public expenditure constitutes a central issue in public sector economics and public finance literature. Understanding the reasons for government spending growth has been a central concern of public sector economists. This is due to the fact that most economies of the world have consistently had increased government expenditures. Nigeria is not an exception. There is need to ascertain the determinants of size of government expenditure in Nigeria. Short-Run Error Correction Model and long-run static equation were used for comparing the influence of those variables on the size of government spending. The long-run static equation served as a test to compare short-run dynamics with the long-run relationships. Ordinary least squares (OLS estimation technique was used. The stationarity tests showed that none of the variables was stationary at level form, but only after their first difference. The results of this study show that the size of revenue and growth rate of national income (output) and private investment significantly influence the size of public expenditure both in the short run and long run. External and domestic debts significantly influence the size of government expenditure only in the short run. It is recommended that the revenue base should be expanded; conducive environment should be created for private investment to thrive, and debt accumulation should be reduced and used for stabilization only in the short run. The conclusion to draw from this study is that revenue, private investment, and income boost public spending while public debts might be counterproductive.

The effects of education quality on income growth and mortality decline

Previous work shows that higher levels of education quality (as measured by international student achievement tests) increase growth rates of national income. This paper begins by confirming those findings in an analysis involving more countries over more time with additional controls. We then use the panel structure of our data to assess whether the mechanism by which education quality appears to improve per capita income levels is through shifting the level of the production function (probably not), through increasing the impact of an additional year of education (probably not), or through increasing a country's rate of technological progress (very likely). Mortality rates complement income levels as indicators of national well-being, and we extend our panel models to show that improved education quality increases the rate of decline in infant mortality. In the analysis of growth, we find a stronger impact of education quality and of years of schooling in open than in closed economies.

The Economics of Civil War: The Case of the Democratic Republic of Congo

This study analyzes the causes of civil wars in the Congo since independence and investigates how the Congo case fits the model of civil war proposed by Collier and Hoeffler. Five conclusions arise from this case study. First, the level and growth rate of national income increased the risk of war by reducing the cost of organizing rebellions and the government's ability to counteract the rebellions. Second, while regional ethnic dominance served as a basis for mobilization of rebellions, ethnic antagonism was also an obstacle to the expansion of civil wars beyond the province of origin. Third, while natural resource dependence was a significant determinant of civil wars in the DRC, it is the geographic concentration of natural resources and their unequal distribution that made the Congo particularly prone to civil war. Fourth, the government's ability to counteract rebellions depended more on external support than on the government's military and economic capacity. Fifth, discriminatory nationality laws, disruptions in the ethnic balance of the eastern region caused by the influx of Rwandan Hutu refugees in 1994, and shared ethnicity between rebels and neighboring regimes - variables which are not included in the Collier-Hoeffler model - were significant determinants of the outbreak of civil wars in the 1990s.

Structural change and decisions on investment allocation

In this article the growth models of Feldman (On the theory of growth rates of national income. Planovoc Khoziaistvo, n.11,12 (1928), translated in N. Spulber (Ed.). Foundations of Soviet Strategy for Economic Growth. Bloomington, Indiana.) and Mahalanobis (Sankhya, vol. xii, (1953)) are extended to analyse the implications of the process of structural change on the decisions of investment allocation. By using the device of vertical integration, their constructions are shown to be a particular case of the Pasinetti (Structural Change and Economic Growth. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.) model of structural change. Their analysis is then carried out in a multi-sector framework, where both productivity and demand change at a particular rate in each of the sectors. A particular rate of investment allocation for each sector is established subject to the full employment of the labour force. Following these lines, we are able to put some of the Halevi (1996) descriptive observations into a formal context and within this context to analyse and to extend his ideas about the role of demand on the decisions of investment allocation. Finally, an additional condition is added to the Pasinetti's model in order to fully characterise the equilibrium path in the most general version of his framework, where capital goods are needed to produce capital goods.

India's economic reforms: Progress, problems, prospects

This paper is a review of India's progress in the 50 years of Independence, which is regarded as a mixture of the impressive and the disappointing. The country has managed to protect national unity, preserve democracy and dilute traditional social hierarchies. There has been economic growth and a reduction in the proportion of people falling below a standard poverty line. But the main requirement now is a sustained increase in the growth rate of national income that also increases the demand for labour. The relative failures of past decades are considered, and ways in which the reform programme begun in July 1991 could be strengthened are suggested.

EXPORTS, URBAN GROWTH, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

Several cross‐countries regression analyses have revealed that exports positively contribute to economic growth in less developed countries, implying that apart from the increases in the stocks of labor and capital, growth can also be stimulated by reallocating resources from the less efficient non‐export sector to the more productive export sector. This paper re‐specifies the relation between exports and economic growth for non‐urban goods exporting African countries. The impact of exports on the growth rate of national income is analyzed along with that of the growth of population in the urban region.

Deficits, government expenditures, and tax smoothing in the United States: 1929–1988

Barro's tax smoothing hypothesis (TSH) implies that the government runs a ‘budget deficit’ whenever it anticipates the growth rate of national income to increase or the growth rate of its expenditure to decline. We test this implication of the hypothesis by examining the implied cross-equation restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) model using U.S. data for the period ranging from 1929 to 1988. Our formal tests reject the hypothesis for the full sample period, but cannot reject it for the post-1947 period. Further investigations show that the statistical rejection should be attributed to sharp differences in the statistical properties of the pre-1947 and the post-1947 data rather than the failure of the hypothesis itself.

Foreign Trade Regime and Savings in Pakistan

Without generating high growth rates of national income, a country cannot make a sustained attack on poverty, unemployment, and other economic problems. Developing countries have, generally, pursued the goal of rapid economic growth with the help of industrialisation. In this regard, an optimal structure of the industries enables a country to experience 'sustainable' economic growth. Countries adopt various trade strategies to allocate resources to their optimal use in order to exploit their industrial potential. Developing countries, including Pakistan, have adopted the import -substituting (IS) trade strategy to foster industrialisation.1 But the disillusionment with the IS strategy and its results is increasing over time. Contributing to this trend is the remarkable increases in growth rates by many countries that have shifted to an export-promoting (EP) trade strategy. At the same time came a fundamental question of the adequacy of economic growth itself. That is to what extent the economic growth under the IS strategy has given rise to the unfavourable results with respect to employment, capital accumulation, and income distribution. Analysis of these effects presents a tall order and we do not go that far in their evaluation. In this study we restrict ourselves to the question how various trade regimes are related with savings. The nature of this relation is somewhat complex.

The Process of Normalization

The results from the performance of the national economy last year will soon be released. Many indicators that are important for analysis will become known later. But even on the basis of the information that the USSR State Committee for Statistics has at its disposal, it can be concluded that in a number of the most important areas of increasing effectiveness, the positive trends that were observed in 1986 continued. The intensive target for conserving energy resources was met. Production costs dropped sharply in industry (0.7 percent in 1987 compared with the annual average of 0.3 percent during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan) and in construction (0.8 percent in 1987; 0.25 percent in 1981-85). An absolute release of manpower was registered for the first time in the productive branches. Industry alone released 140,000 persons. Labor productivity rose at a rapid rate in this branch. Product modernization accelerated sharply in machine building. But it was not possible to maintain the high growth rates of national income, industrial production, and agricultural production attained in 1986 (see table).

The Process of Normalization

The results from the performance of the national economy last year will soon be released. Many indicators that are important for analysis will become known later. But even on the basis of the information that the USSR State Committee for Statistics has at its disposal, it can be concluded that in a number of the most important areas of increasing effectiveness, the positive trends that were observed in 1986 continued. The intensive target for conserving energy resources was met. Production costs dropped sharply in industry (0.7 percent in 1987 compared with the annual average of 0.3 percent during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan) and in construction (0.8 percent in 1987; 0.25 percent in 1981-85). An absolute release of manpower was registered for the first time in the productive branches. Industry alone released 140,000 persons. Labor productivity rose at a rapid rate in this branch. Product modernization accelerated sharply in machine building. But it was not possible to maintain the high growth rates of national income, industrial production, and agricultural production attained in 1986 (see table).

The Yield of Land and the Structure of Investment

One means of accelerating the rate of socioeconomic development is improving investment and structural policy. The acceleration of the nation's development is ultimately manifested in the growth rate of national income. According to calculations, it must grow by at least 4 percent, compared with 3.1 percent during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. (At the present volume of production, the additional percentage point will amount to approximately 6 billion rubles.) Twenty-eight percent of national income is created in agriculture, and the acceleration of [national income] growth naturally depends to a large extent on the rate of that branch's development.