Growth Rate Of Labor Force Research Articles

Solution to an open question about optimal economic growth models

We prove that if the total factor productivity A of an aggregative economy is right at the barrier , with σ being the growth rate of labor force and λ the real interest rate, then the unique policy to optimally control the economy is the same as the one for optimally controlling weak economies, where . This result gives a complete answer for the interesting open question raised by Vu Thi Huong in her recent paper [Optimal economic growth problems with high values of total factor productivity. Appl Anal. 2022;101:1315–1329].

Factors that Influence Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Albania

This study aimed to analyze the impact of the demographic factors and economic factors on GDP per capita in Albania from the period 1990-2020. The variables taken into consideration were life expectancy growth rate, fertility growth rate, labor force growth rate, unemployment rate, population growth rate, trade balance to GDP, and real interest rate. This study used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions to identify factors that influence GDP per capita. Before conducting the OLS regression is tested for normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and also if the model is correctly specified. The results of the model suggest that there is a positive significant relationship between fertility growth rate and real interest rate and GDP per capita, and a negative significant relationship between population growth rate and the GDP per capita. There is not a consensus on the main factors that impact the economic growth of a country and the main difficulties consist of a lack of empirical research on Albanian data. The life expectancy growth rate, labor force growth rate, unemployment rate and trade balance to GDP taken into consideration have no significant effect on the dependent variable.

Analyzing the Effects of Demographic Transition on Child Labor in Developing Economies

Purpose: In efforts to realize the dividend of demographic transition, elimination of child labor has become an utmost challenge for the relevant international bodies. Knowing the importance of this issue, children are now the center of the vision of sustainable development as SDG 8.7 and 16.2 are directly related to children and their lives. In this context, the purpose of the current study is to analyze the linkages between demographic variables (such as working-age population, labor force participation rate, labor force growth rate, life expectancy, and dependency ratio and population growth) and child labor along with some other macroeconomic determinants of child labor.
 Design/Methodology/Approach: A panel of 45 developing countries covering the period 2000 – 2019 is used for empirical analysis. Dynamic panel GMM technique is utilized for empirical results.
 Findings: The results show that increase in the working-age population, GDP per capita, age dependency old and young, and health expenditures increase the child labor but increase in life expectancy and educational expenditures reduce the child labor in developing countries. Population growth rate reduces child labor in overall developing countries and high-income developing economies but increases child labor in low income developing countries. The increase in labor force growth rate increases child labor in a panel of developing economies and low-income developing economies but reduces child labor in high-income developing economies.
 Implications/Originality/Value: Public expenditures in health and education along with increasing the female labor force participation rate is recommended to reduce the child labor in developing countries.

Optimal Economic Growth Models with Nonlinear Utility Functions

We study a class of finite horizon optimal economic growth problems with nonlinear utility functions and linear production functions. By using a maximum principle in the optimal control theory and employing the special structure of the problems, we are able to explicitly describe the unique solution via input parameters. Economic interpretations of the obtained results and an open problem about the case where the total factor productivity falls into a bounded open interval defined by the growth rate of labor force, the real interest rate, and the exponent of the utility function are also expressed.

Growth spillover: a spatial dynamic panel data and spatial cross section data approaches in selected Asian countries

One of the most fundamental issues worldwide is the economic interdependence of countries which affects their economic growth. Some new growth theorists such as Mankiw et al., Islam, Ertur and Koch, Lee, Yu and Yu Ho et al. consider geographical proximity and trade as spatial variables. This study aims to investigate the spatial effects of geographical distance on economic growth using the spatial dynamic panel data model and the spatial cross section data model for the period 1992–2016 in selected Asian countries. The findings demonstrate that the effect of spatial spillover or spatial dependency is one of the main causes of economic growth spillovers. In the spatial dynamic panel data model, log of gross domestic product (GDP), gross fixed capital formation and growth rate of labor force had negative, positive and negative impacts on economic growth, respectively. In the spatial cross-sectional data models including human capital, log of GDP, gross fixed capital formation and growth rate of labor force had negative impacts on economic growth, while in a model without human capital log of GDP, gross fixed capital formation and growth rate of labor force, respectively, had positive and negative effects on economic growth.

Geographic proximity, trade and economic growth: a spatial econometrics approach

ABSTRACTThis paper examines economic growth in terms of ‘bilateral trade flow’ and ‘geographical distance’ using the spatial dynamic panel data model for the period 1992–2016. The findings illustrate that the effect of spatial spillover or spatial dependence is one of the main economic growth determinants. Also, we find out that spatial relationships across countries and the spatial effects of trade are quite relevant. A country’s economic growth is actually affected by the performance of its neighbours and trade partners. This result suggests that the spillover effects of geographical position and trade partners are the key determinants of economic growth. In fact, overlooking such factors can result in misspecification of models. In addition, the findings confirmed that growth rate of labour force has a negative impact on economic growth while the formation of gross fixed capital has a significant positive effect.

Public Governance and Economic Growth of Non-Oil-Exporting Arab Countries

This paper aims at investigating the impact of public governance on the economic growth in Non-Oil-Exporting Arab countries (NOEAC). The study used panel data for six NOEAC over the period from 1998 to 2017. Some study variables were not stationary at level but they became stationary after taking the first difference for them. The result of applying Kao panel cointegration test revealed that the study model was cointegrated. Therefore, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model was applied for estimation showing that governance factors have the greatest significant positive effects on the economic growth in such countries. Gross fixed capital formation, labor force growth rate, trade openness, economic freedom, rule of law, regulatory quality, control of corruption, and voice and accountability have statistically significant positive impact on their economic growth during the study period, while the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (GFC) with its slow recovery has a significant negative impact on their economic growth. Political stability and government effectiveness have insignificant effects. The main conclusion derived from this paper is that political and institutional aspects can play an important role in the economic progress, and they are responsible for major contribution to economic growth and development. Therefore, attracting domestic and foreign direct investments, increasing labor and capital productivities, strengthening governance, improving public administration and eradication of corruption have the first priorities in NOEAC.

The Economic and Non-Economic Determinants of Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries

This paper aims at exploring the main determinants of economic growth in Oil-Exporting Arab countries (OEAC) by shedding light on the most effective determinants. It is then wished that governments and policy makers would concentrate on and take them into consideration when they are designing and applying their public policies. The study used panel data for six OEAC over the period of 1998-2017. Some study variables were not stationary at level but they became stationary after taking the first difference for them. The result of applying panel Pedroni cointegration test revealed that the model was cointegrated. Therefore, FMOLS model was applied for estimation showing that gross fixed capital formation, labor force growth rate, economic freedom, rule of law, regulatory quality and government effectiveness have statistically significant positive impact on the economic growth of OEAC, while trade openness, control of corruption, political stability and voice and accountability have insignificant effects on their economic growth during the study period. Moreover, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 with its slow recovery has a significant negative impact on the economic growth of such countries. Therefore, the study recommends OEACs’ governments to make “real” institutional reforms and adopt the appropriate polices that eliminate corruption and rent seeking behaviour and enhance the rule of law. They also need to improve the quality of education and to develop the skills and expertise of their labour force. In addition, they have to establish specialization in the production of goods in which they have comparative advantages and diversify their production and sources of national income, and not to depend only on exporting natural raw materials, which altogether eventually ensure resources are efficiently and effectively utilized in pursuit of their economic growth and social development.

PERAN SEKTOR BASIS DALAM PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA DI PROVINSI SULAWESI UTARA

This study aims to determine what sectors into the base sector and the role of base sectors on employment within the last 5 years in the Province of North Sulawesi study was conducted over three months starting in October 2016 until the month of December 2016 in the province of North Sulawesi. In this study, the data used is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of North Sulawesi Province. The data is processed using descriptive analysis and presented in tables and graphs. From the results of research show that the sector became the sector base in North Sulawesi are agriculture, forestry and fisheries, construction, and transport and communications sectors. In the agricultural sector the rate of labor absorption is much larger than the other two sectors of the base, but the growth rate of its workforce decreased when compared with other bases of both sectors. It can be seen from the average level of labor absorption per each sector of a base. At the rate of growth of gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of North Sulawesi province to the agricultural sector amounted to 21.70 percent and the rate of employment growth of 0.22 percent, the construction sector amounted to 12.71 per cent with employment growth rate of 0.44 percent, while transport and communication sector amounted to 12.59 with labor force growth rate of 2.97 percent.

Determinants of foreign direct investment in Ethiopia; time series evidence from 1991-2013

The hub of this study is investigating the forces behind the foreign direct investment inflow to Ethiopian economy in the long run as well as in the short run. To this end, the researcher has reviewed theoretical explanations relating to the determinants of foreign direct investment. The investigator has also reviewed relevant empirical literature pertaining to the determinants of foreign direct investment in the context of developing and developed countries and Ethiopia in particular. The review of the literature and the context analysis has culminated with a fundamental question what are the major determinants of foreign direct investment inflows in Ethiopia in both the long run and the short run? Methodologically, the researcher adopted empirical and quantitative analysis. To this end, a time series model was developed based on the critical synthesis of theoretical and empirical literature on foreign direct investment. The model is estimated using error correction model(ECM) formulation for the period 1991 to 2013 using annual data from World Bank world development indicators report after co-integrating relationship is proved with the Dickey Fuller residual based unit root tests. The tests for stationarity before the model developed was estimated proved that the variables in the model suffer from mixed order of co-integration at levels and hence the variables were differenced so as to alleviate that problem of mixed order co-integration. The result revealed that the determinants of foreign direct investment inflow are found to be consistent in the short and long run models. The most important forces behind foreign direct investment are found to be the GDP per capital, GDP growth rate, real interest rates, inflation rate, gross capital formation, adult literacy rate, Labor force growth rate, telephone lines per 1000 people and official exchange rate. In both models, Export of goods and services, and energy consumption per capita in transport sector are found to have insignificant impact on foreign direct investment inflow to Ethiopia. The policy implication of the result is that policy makers need to put in place policies congenial to pursue economic growth, macro-economic stability, human capital formation and fixed capital formation for attraction of foreign direct investment.

DINAMIKA TENAGA KERJA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DI PROVINSI SULAWESI UTARA

This study aims to determine the dynamics of agricultural labor force of North Sulawesi Province. Re-search location in Manado (July to August 2010). Collecting data is secondary data research. The data were processed using the calculation of share of labor and labor force growth rate calculations. The re-sults showed employment growth rate of agriculture sector decreased by 5.78 percent per annum in the period of 2000-2009. While employment in non-agricultural sector increased by 1.78 percent each year. This indicates there is the tendency of structural transformation of agriculture labor to non-agricultural sector. Low tendency of Trade will be able to influence farmers to reduce or stop activities that agribusi-ness will affect the size of the agricultural labor share. Labor share of agriculture sector on the basis of education level is dominated by the level of primary education during the period 2007-2009 but its labor force growth rate has decreased each year in both rural and urban areas. Labor share of the agricultur-al sector based on the age group was dominated by the age of 55 years and above over the 2007-2009 period and is indicated by increasing the growth rate of labor force in rural and urban areas especially in urban areas despite a decline each year that tend to occur due to an increased energy agricultural labor in rural areas. Labor share of agriculture sector by district / city dominated by Bolaang Mongon-dow during the period 2007-2009, although rates of employment growth in agriculture sector has de-creased each year in both rural and urban areas. Labor share of agriculture sector based on the out-pouring of work hours was dominated by workers who work full (>35 hours) during the period 2007-2009 despite the decline in employment growth rates in both rural and urban areas each year.Keywords: Dynamics of Agricultural Labor Force, Structural Transformation, Labor Share

Education, Technical Progress, and Economic Growth in the Information Age

Recent studies consider education and human capital growth as a main source of economic growth. In the classical model, population growth and capital accumulation was envisaged as an engine of economic development. Population and market rate of wages were believed to have mutual affinity. Neoclassical model, it is known as Solow Model, shows capital accumulation would increase the growth rates in the short run, but cannot generate any long run GDP growth rate increase. The Solow model implies that economies will conditionally converge to the same level of income, given that they have the same rates of savings, depreciation, labor force growth, and productivity growth. This study firstly examines the structural and economic changes in Turkish economy and then analysis the effect of education and the role of technical progress on Turkish economic growth during the period 1990-2012. This study finds out that the real GDP growth rate is dependent on capital formation and growth rate of labor force.

Evolución reciente del empleo y el desempleo en México

In this study we analyze the evolution and tendencies of Mexico’s employment and unemployment, in particular, since the application of the so called economic reforms initiated in the eighties. The central tenet is that the objectives of the government’s economic policy regarding employment since the early eighties, not only have not been accomplished but unemployment is by far the most important challenge of economic policy in Mexico. The capacity of the Mexican economy to create productive jobs, at least at the labor force growth rate is one of the main challenges for policy makers since the early eighties and it will remain as such in the future if economic growth is not really activated and the growing supply of labor force is henceforth productively employed

The impact of international trade flows on economic growth in Brazilian states

This paper explores the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of Brazilian states according to their initial income level. This empiri- cal study covers 26 Brazilian states over the period 1989-2002. Growth rates of Brazilian states are modeled as dependent on international trade flows and a set of control variables such as initial income level, human capital, private and public physical capital, growth rate of labor force and a number of inter- action terms with trade openness. This empirical analysis relies on dynamic growth regressions, using the system GMM estimator. The results indicate that trade openness is more beneficial to states with a high level of initial per capita income and therefore contributes to increased regional dispari- ties in Brazil. In addition, trade openness favors more industrialized states, well-endowed in human capital, rather than states whose economic activity is mainly based on agriculture and farming. These results have important policy implications since achieving balanced territorial development has be- come a priority for the Brazilian federal government over the last few decades.

The impact of international trade flows on economic growth in Brazilian states

This paper explores the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of Brazilian states according to their initial income level. This empiri- cal study covers 26 Brazilian states over the period 1989-2002. Growth rates of Brazilian states are modeled as dependent on international trade flows and a set of control variables such as initial income level, human capital, private and public physical capital, growth rate of labor force and a number of inter- action terms with trade openness. This empirical analysis relies on dynamic growth regressions, using the system GMM estimator. The results indicate that trade openness is more beneficial to states with a high level of initial per capita income and therefore contributes to increased regional dispari- ties in Brazil. In addition, trade openness favors more industrialized states, well-endowed in human capital, rather than states whose economic activity is mainly based on agriculture and farming. These results have important policy implications since achieving balanced territorial development has be- come a priority for the Brazilian federal government over the last few decades.

DINAMIKA TENAGA KERJA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DI PROVINSI SULAWESI UTARA

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to determine the employment dynamics of agricultural sector in North Sulawesi Province. The research was conducted in Manado (July to August 2010, by using the collecting data as a secondary data research. The data was analyzed using labor share and labor force growth rate. The result showed that labor share of agriculture sector on the basis of education level was dominated by the level of primary education during the period 2007-2009 but its labor force growth rate had decreased each year in both rural and urban areas. On the age group was dominated by the age of 55 years and above. The employment growth rate of agriculture sector was decreased by 5.78 percent each year in the period of 2000-2009. While the fenomena employment in non-agricultural sector was increased by 1.78 percent each year. This result indicated that there was tendency of structural transformation of agriculture sector to non-agricultural sector. The low tendency of trade will be able to influence farmers to reduce or to stop the agribusiness activities that will affect the size of the agiculture labor force share. Keywords: Employment Dynamics of Agricultural Sector

EVALUATING EMPLOYMENT POLICY PROGRAMS TO ALLEVIATE THE UNEMPLOYMENT: CASE STUDY OF EGYPT (In Arabic)

EVALUATING EMPLOYMENT POLICY PROGRAMS TO ALLEVIATE THE UNEMPLOYMENT: CASE STUDY OF EGYPT (In Arabic)

Exact Prediction of Inflation in the USA

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force growth rate has been recently found for the USA. It accurately describes the period after the late 1950s with linear coefficient 4.0, intercept -0.03, and the lag of 2 years. The previously reported agreement between observed and predicted inflation is substantially improved by some simple measures removing the most obvious errors in the labor force time series. The labor force readings originally obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website are corrected for step-like adjustments. Additionally, a half-year time shift between the inflation and the annual labor force readings is compensated. GDP deflator represents the inflation. Linear regression analysis demonstrates that the annual labor force growth rate used as a predictor explains almost 82% (R2=0.82) of the inflation variations between 1965 and 2002. Moving average technique applied to the annual time series results in a substantial increase in R2. It grows from 0.87 for two-year wide windows to 0.96 for four-year windows. Regression of cumulative curves is characterized by R2>0.999. This allows effective replacement of GDP deflation index by a “labor force growth” index. The linear and lagged relationship provides a precise forecast at the two-year horizon with root mean square forecasting error (RMSFE) as low as 0.008 (0.8%) for the entire period between 1965 and 2002. For the last 20 years, RMSFE is only 0.4%. Thus, the forecast methodology effectively outperforms any other forecasting technique reported in economic and financial literature. Moreover, further significant improvements in the forecasting accuracy are accessible through improvements in the labor force measurements in line with the US Census Bureau population estimates, which are neglected by BLS.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EVALUATION OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORY

The Gross Product of the Northern Territory accounts for approximately 1.2% of Australian GDP. The economic growth record of NT in the past few years has been well below all Australian states and territories but the per capita income of NT remains higher than the national per capita income. Due to continued interstate migration, higher birth rate among the indigenous population and the inability of NT to attract international migrants, the Territory's population mix is slowly changing. This paper shows that the NT's economic growth rate is closely linked to the growth rate of labour force and private investment. Although the overall labour force participation-rate is almost unchanged, the male and female participation rates are moving in the opposite direction. Finally, the paper presents short-term forecasts for NT's Gross State Product per person employed, private investment and employment. The forecasting exercise shows that the cyclical pattern is likely to continue in the near future.

Overeducation in the labor market: a meta-analysis

This paper contains a meta-analysis of studies on overeducation and undereducation in the labor market. It is found that of the four different definitions of overeducation distinguished in the literature, only the one based on variation in years of education within occupational groups appears to yield significantly lower-than-average rates of overeducation. The average rate of undereducation in the labor market depends on the definition of the undereducation variable. There is no indication that mismatches between education supplied and education required for the job have increased significantly in the past 20 years. The labor force growth rate has a positive effect on the incidence of overeducation, while the unemployment rate has a negative effect on the rate of return to education.