Unemployment Rate Growth Research Articles

Unemployment Rate Convergence in the Case of Turkey: A Regional Analysis within the Scope of Dollarization and Real Wage

The unemployment rate is a fundamental variable in the socioeconomic comparison between regions. Hence, it is included in the focus of regional economic policies. Regional policy sets are frequently used to eliminate regional unemployment differences. This situation raises discussions about the efficiency of the employment policies and questions whether regional unemployment rates tend to converge to national averages. Especially in economies with regional development differences and the labor market does not exhibit a homogeneous structure, the regional analysis of unemployment rates is becoming more critical. This paper analyses the convergence of unemployment rates with the panel data set, which includes 26 regions of Turkey and the period 2004-2020. It is investigated if regional macroeconomic interactions in Turkey make the labor market homogeneous. Besides, the effects of dollarization and real wage on the unemployment rate change are questioned. The study's findings indicate the presence of deterministic and stochastic β convergence. According to the unconditional and conditional β convergence analysis, the change in the unemployment rate depends on the initial value of the unemployment rate. The findings also show that if dollarization and real wage growth increase, unemployment rate growth also increases. σ convergence analysis also confirms the presence of unemployment rate convergence.

An Evaluation of the Reasons and Results of Young People Unemployment in Pakistan 2022

Youth unemployment is a challenging issue facing the whole world. The focus of this study is to find out the reasons and results of youth unemployment in Pakistan. Primary data were used and collected through a well-designed questionnaire from 120 respondents. For data analysis, simple frequencies and percentage methods were used. The finding of the study showed that 31.67% of respondents were unemployed due to a low level of education, 23.33% of respondents were unemployed due to low salary, 17.5% of respondents were unemployed due to no approach (sefarish), 14.17% of respondents were unemployed due to lack of skills and 13.33% respondents were unemployed. 36.67% of respondents agreed that due to unemployment crimes increases, 24.17% of respondents said that due to unemployment drug abuse increases, 15.83% of respondents said that due to unemployment nepotism, and favoritism arises, 95% of respondents agreed that unemployment affects social life and create tension. 89.17% of respondents agreed that unemployment affects health. The causes of the high growth rate of unemployment are low-level education, the high growth rate of population, poverty, lack of capital, lack of proper skills, and favoritism in the selection process. Therefore, the present study recommended that a proper plan and mechanism is crucial for controlling the high growth of the population, increasing job opportunities, providing credit facilities for self-employment, providing proper skills, and controlling corruption to reduce unemployment in the study. On the basis of previous literature and our findings, it has been concluded that unemployment is the mother of crime.

An Evaluation of the Reasons and Results of Young People Unemployment in Pakistan 2022

Youth unemployment is a challenging issue facing the whole world. The focus of this study is to find out the reasons and results of youth unemployment in Pakistan. Primary data were used and collected through a well-designed questionnaire from 120 respondents. For data analysis, simple frequencies and percentage methods were used. The finding of the study showed that 31.67% of respondents were unemployed due to a low level of education, 23.33% of respondents were unemployed due to low salary, 17.5% of respondents were unemployed due to no approach (sefarish), 14.17% of respondents were unemployed due to lack of skills and 13.33% respondents were unemployed. 36.67% of respondents agreed that due to unemployment crimes increases, 24.17% of respondents said that due to unemployment drug abuse increases, 15.83% of respondents said that due to unemployment nepotism, and favoritism arises, 95% of respondents agreed that unemployment affects social life and create tension. 89.17% of respondents agreed that unemployment affects health. The causes of the high growth rate of unemployment are low-level education, the high growth rate of population, poverty, lack of capital, lack of proper skills, and favoritism in the selection process. Therefore, the present study recommended that a proper plan and mechanism is crucial for controlling the high growth of the population, increasing job opportunities, providing credit facilities for self-employment, providing proper skills, and controlling corruption to reduce unemployment in the study. On the basis of previous literature and our findings, it has been concluded that unemployment is the mother of crime.

Election Forecasting Using Macroeconomic and Social Indicators via Machine Learning

A comparative analysis of machine learning models is executed for the forecasting of incumbent party losses during federal elections in democratic countries. A proprietary dataset that encompasses a wide array of potential economic and social factors affecting election outcomes is compiled, and the most significant factors are identified and evaluated. A myriad of the most popular machine learning models for supervised learning is applied to the dataset, utilizing them as classifiers to predict whether the incumbent party stays in power during federal elections for eleven of the world’s most populous and democratic countries: the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Austria, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Australia, India, and New Zealand. The results show that the most significant factors for election outcomes are inflation growth rate, unemployment growth rate, and voter turnout growth rate. Multilayer perceptron produces the most accurate classifications. Additionally, Gaussian models such as Gaussian process classifier and Gaussian naive Bayes have the poorest classification accuracy.

Люмпенізована демократія та її вплив на сучасне публічне управління

Розглянуто особливості популізму, що є своєрідним позитивним повідомленням для формування демократичних цінностей у публічному управлінні. Звернено увагу на спеціальну місію популізму як необхідність влади народу та управління народом, що є досить часто наслідком усунення від влади актуальних у конкретний момент людей, груп, політичних сил і передачі влади “дійсним” представникам народу. Проведено аналіз, згідно з яким популізм прагне коригувати, вносити зміни в прийняті правила гри, враховуючи лише інтерес власної політичної сили, і не враховуючи інтересів інших політичних акторів, і часто переростає у люмпенізовану демократію, яка може згодом мати негативні наслідки для публічного управління.

A comparison between VAR processes jointly modeling GDP and Unemployment rate in France and Germany

Investigating the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and unemployment is one of the most important challenges in macroeconomics. In this paper, we compare French and German economies in terms of the dynamic linkage between these variables. In particular, we use an empirical methodology to investigate how much the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and unemployment growth rates are dynamically different in the two major European economies over the period 2003–2019. To this aim, a Vector Autoregressive model is specified for each country to jointly model the growth rate of the two variables. Then a new statistical test is proposed to assess the distance between the two estimated models. Results indicate that the dynamic linkage between Gross Domestic Product and unemployment is very similar in the two countries. This empirical evidence does not imply identical product and labor markets in France and Germany, but it ensures that in these markets there are common dynamics. This could favor the process of economic convergence between the two countries.

How COVID-19 Quarantine(s) Can Generate Poverty?

This research paper attempts to show visually how the COVID-19 quarantines can generate massive unemployment, constant expansion of inflation, reduction of the purchasing power parity, and poverty expansion from a multidimensional perspective. This visualization is only possible by creating a new multivariate graphical modeling called “The Multidimensional Poverty Kaleidoscope Graph.” The multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph is not intended to use a forecasting model in any case. However, its application is not limited to the study of a particular group of countries. It is not constrained by issues about the region or countries interested in applying the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. There are four primary phases in the implementation of the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. The first phase is the design of the input-output-table. The second phase is divided into two sections of analysis: the first section of analysis assumes that the COVID-19 quarantine time framework growth rate (Y = Independent variable) impacts directly on our four variables in analysis, such as the inflation growth rate (X1); the unemployment growth rate (X2); purchasing power parity growth rate (X3); the government budget deficit (X4). In the second section of the analysis, the last past four variables in analysis became our dependent variables and directly affected the poverty growth rate (Z). The third phase is the construction of the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. Finally, the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph was applied to three countries, such as the U.S., Malaysia, and Guatemala.

COVIDECONOMICS: The Evaluation of COVID-19 Economic Effects

COVIDECONOMICS: The Evaluation of COVID-19 Economic Effects

MENANAMKAN MENTAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP MELALUI INSTITUSI PONDOK PESANTREN (STUDI KASUS PONDOK PESANTREN RAUDLATUZZAHRAH KOLOR SUMENEP

Entrepreneurship is a very appropriate solution to reduce the growth rate of unemployment in our country. Because the current economic dynamics continue to accelerate and the economic arena requires us to behave creatively and innovatively. China and Japan experienced greater economic growth because the growth rate of entrepreneurs in that country exceeded 14 percent while our country according to President Jokowi was still only 3.01 percent. This really needs an acceleration in creating new entrepreneurs. This research focuses on the cultivation of mental entrepreneurship carried out by Islamic boarding schools where this institution is the oldest Islamic educational institution in Indonesia. There are two issues that the writer wants to examine further; 1) The role and strategy of the pesantren in this case the priest in instilling mental entrepreneurship in the students. 2) Constraints faced in an effort to instill mental entrepreneurship in a boarding school. The results of this study: 1) there are three strategies applied by pesantren in this case the priest in instilling mental entrepreneurship namely; counseling services and integration into extracurricular activities, self-development, and changes in learning from theory to entrepreneurship practices. 2) constraints faced; the theory applied is still not systematic, the existing facilities are not sufficient enough, and unfocusedness in learning because they still have to divide their time to study religion more.

Impact of GDP, Inflation, Population Growth and FDI on Unemployment: A study on Bangladesh Economy

Unemployment is a major problem in almost all of the countries of south Asia. Unemployment has become the consistent crucial problem in Bangladesh. Economic conditions, demographic structure, women contribution, movement of rural to urban are the major causes of unemployment in Bangladesh. Economic growth and unemployment have a negative relation in Bangladesh. This study is performed to see the impact of some crucial macroeconomic factors on the increasing growth rate of unemployment in Bangladesh. For conducting the study, data set of GDPs, inflation, population growth, FDI during the period of 1995-2019 of Bangladesh has been used. To find out the impact of inflation, economic growth, population growth and FDI on unemployment rate this study used the Augmented Dickey Fuller test for Unit Root to check whether variables are stationary or non-stationary. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Inflation, FDI are stationary on level and intercept and unemployment is stationary on first difference. From the augmented dicky fuller test, co linearity and co integration test, least square method it is observed that there is long run relationship exists among the factors and unemployment in Bangladesh. Economic factors like GDP and, FDI have significant influence on unemployment problem in Bangladesh. Theoretically there has a positive relation between unemployment and economic growth. Granger causality test confirms the unidirectional influences come from the unemployment rate to the economic factors as well. This study will help policy makers to modify policy to reduce the unemployment rate in Bangladesh.

How much COVID-19 Affects the Conservation of Economic Energy (EE) of the U.S.?

This paper applies the special theory of relativity to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy. Therefore, we propose a new indicator is called “the Conservation of Economic Energy (EE).” The construction of the conservation of economic energy (EE) requests the use of two economic variables into the special theory of relativity, followed by the unemployment growth rate (U) and the COVID-19 human damage speed (ΔC2). Finally, the conservation of economic energy (EE) was applied for the case of the U.S.

Economic Dynamic Cycle of the Covid-19 Impact: Unemployment Perspective

In this paper we present a theoretical interaction between the Dutt framework with the Susceptible, Infected and Recovered approach (hereafter SIR). Our main contribution is to divide the unemployment, spearing between natural unemployment and the one caused by the pandemic situation. The development of the dynamic system lead us to a cycle endogenizing the second unemployment type. This model raises three dynamic solutions. The first is when the level of both growth rate of unemployment are equal; the second one is when the pandemic situation generates a level of the unemployment bigger in comparison to the natural, and the final case presents the inverse relation between both types of unemployment. From these results we prove the stability condition using the Routh-Hurwitz technique, as well as, the existence of the limit cycle with a critical point via the Hopf bifurcation approach. Finally, it is shown the intervals to the (a) susceptible, (b) infectious and (c) recovered of our new extension.

On the economic impacts of constraining second home investments

We investigate how political backlash against wealthy second home investors in high natural amenity places affects local residents. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment: the ‘Swiss Second Home Initiative’, which banned the construction of new second homes in desirable seasonal tourist locations. Consistent with our model, we find that the ban substantially lowered (increased) the price growth of primary (second) homes and increased the unemployment growth rate in the affected areas. Our findings suggest that the negative effect on local economies dominated the positive amenity-preservation effect. We conclude that constraining second home construction in seasonal tourist locations where primary and second homes are not close substitutes may reinforce wealth inequality.

A Multidimensional Graphical Representation of Poverty: The Octahedron of Poverty

This research paper presents a multidimensional graphical modeling to study the behavior of the poverty of any country from a multidimensional perspective. This multidimensional graphical modeling is called “the octahedron of poverty.” The octahedron of poverty is not intended to use a forecasting model in any case. However, its application is not limited to the study of a special group of countries. It is not constrained by issues about the region or countries that are interested in applying the octahedron of poverty. There are four basic phases in the implementation of octahedron of poverty. The first phase is the design of the data-input-table. The second phase is the measurement of each negative factors that can generate poverty (Xi) (or independent variables), which includes the calculation of the inflation growth rate (X1), the unemployment growth rate (X2), the economic desgrowth growth rate (X3) and the government budget deficit (X4). At the same time, the calculation of two dependent variables such as the poverty growth rate (Y1) and the inequality growth rate (Y2) respectively. The third phase is the construction of the octahedron of poverty. Finally, the octahedron of poverty was applied to five countries such as U.S., Japan, China, Chile, and Guatemala.

How COVID-19 Quarantine(s) Can Generate Poverty?

This research paper attempts to show visually how the COVID-19 quarantines can generate massive unemployment, constant expansion of inflation, reduction of the purchasing power parity, and poverty expansion from a multidimensional perspective. This visualization is only possible by creating a new multivariate graphical modeling called “The Multidimensional Poverty Kaleidoscope Graph.” The multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph is not intended to use a forecasting model in any case. However, its application is not limited to the study of a particular group of countries. It is not constrained by issues about the region or countries interested in applying the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. There are four primary phases in the implementation of the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. The first phase is the design of the input-output-table. The second phase is divided into two sections of analysis: the first section of analysis assumes that the COVID-19 quarantine time framework growth rate (Y = Independent variable) impacts directly on our four variables in analysis, such as the inflation growth rate (X1); the unemployment growth rate (X2); purchasing power parity growth rate (X3); the government budget deficit (X4). In the second section of the analysis, the last past four variables in analysis became our dependent variables and directly affected the poverty growth rate (Z). The third phase is the construction of the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. Finally, the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph was applied to three countries, such as the U.S., Malaysia, and Guatemala.

Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Sudanese Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence via Switching Regression

This paper focuses on assessing the impact of macroeconomic policies on the expansion and contraction of Sudanese real GDP as well as the computation of the number and the expected duration of each for the period of the period 1960Q1-2017Q4. The main tools of analysis are Simple switching regression and Markov switching regression are. The unemployment growth rate is the regime-switching variable in addition to the growth rates of the nominal effective exchange rate, real money supply, current government expenditure, and development expenses as non-switching variables. Markov-switching regression also outweighs simple switching regression in terms of Akaike information criterion, and transition probabilities. Results show that monetary policy was effective between the period of 1960Q1-1976Q4 adding 1.2% of real value. This however is; contrary to the period 1977Q1-1997Q4 where 60% of real value has been lost and improved significantly in the course of 1998Q1-2017Q4, hence, missing only 1%. The effect of the unemployment rate on growth at the period of contraction is almost four-time of the expansion. The positive effect of development expenses combined with the negative impact of current expenditure on the growth rate reveals the efficacy of monetary policy over fiscal. The exchange rate operates as a shock absorber. The expected duration, and the probability of staying in contraction last more than the expansion.

Econometric Test on Growth-Unemployment Nexus in India

Generally, the economic growth boosts employment growth rate but empirical evidences do not support these views in all cases. In this paper, the author endeavors to relate growth with unemployment rate during 1991-2016 in India using regression models, Granger Causality test, Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correction model. Impulse response functions were fitted for testing stationary. Unit circle was found out to check stability of the Vector Error Correction. Output gap is measured by deducting Hodrick-Prescott Filtered trend value from the actual output. Unemployment gap is measured by deducting natural growth rate of unemployment from the actual unemployment rate. The data on Indian unemployment rate, growth rate and GDP from 1991 to 2016 have been taken from the World Bank. The paper concludes that growth-unemployment nexus is significantly negative at 10% level. Their relation is not causal but is co-integrated at 10% level. VECM is stable and non-stationary where in one error correction process the speed of adjustment is high and significant. The relation between output gap and unemployment is negative and insignificant. They are not co-integrated and have no causality. The nexus between output gap and unemployment gap is significantly negative but the relation has no causality and co-integration. VAR model is a good fit where variables are related with previous periods. The relation between growth and unemployment gap is insignificantly negative and co-integrated where VECM is stable but non-stationary and one speed of adjustment is significantly fast and other is insignificantly slow in error correction process.

Chinese Migrants in Italy: Positive Integration Experience or a Challenging Factor?

This paper analyses the situation, caused by the growing labour migration from China to Italy. In the beginning of the paper, the authors give a short outline of multiculturalism policy and its specific features in Italy. In spite of sustainable ethno-religious tolerance of Italian society (conditioned by the historical and geographical factors, such as longterm fragmentation of Italian state, the presence of a large number of ethnic minorities in a rather small area, intensive North-South internal migration), the multiculturalism policy, imposed by the European Union, has not been accustomed in this country. The reasons for it were the growth of unemployment rate, economic crisis, migration crisis, that started after 2008. The latter showed the disrespect, demonstrated by migrants to basic human rights and freedoms, and contempt to European culture and traditions, which induced the increasing discontent among Italian citizens. Then, the paper provides an overview on Italian-Chinese relations and a detailed analysis of problems, related to Chinese migration in Italy. Chinese migrants form a considerable diaspora in this country, living in isolated, almost self-governed communities, claiming for their rights and participating in a variety of criminal activities. The authors define the reasons for the formation of this trend and analyse the way, how the problem is being dealt with.

Influence of GDP changes on the spatial variation of unemployment in Ukraine

The purpose of the study is to describe the spatial variation of GDP per capita and unemployment rates in the Ukrainian oblasts in the years 2004—2015. The influence of GDP growth rates and unemployment rate delayed by one year on the growth of unemployment rate was examined. For this purpose, methods of panel data econometrics (regression with fixed effects) were used. The research used data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. In the initial years of the analysed period, Ukraine was rapidly developing, which led to an increase in employment and a decrease in unemployment. The global financial crisis resulted in one-year recession and a rapid growth of the unemployment. After the events in the years 2013—2014 (Euromaidan) there was a decline in GDP combined with an increase in unemployment. These processes to the greatest extent were present in the oblasts of Eastern Ukraine, especially in Luhansk and Donetsk.

Resilience capacity and vulnerability: A joint analysis with reference to Slovak urban districts

The concept of resilience has recently been investigated from the perspective of several disciplines. This extensive research has produced many approaches to determine the key definitions, linked to both the notion of stability in dynamics (return to the previous equilibrium after a shock) and the idea of adaptivity (absorption of the shock leading to new equilibria). Among the various definitions and measurements which can be found in the literature, the Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) defines a kind of ‘potential resilience’, i.e. the potential ability of a region to recover, or bounce back in the presence of external shocks. However, the RCI should also be tested empirically versus other resilience/vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability denotes a different view on the state of the system in the presence of shocks, i.e. the degree to which a system is susceptible to harm. In the present paper, this concept will be adopted by analysing the dynamics of the unemployment growth rate, and then comparing it to the RCI.The country of interest in this paper is Slovakia. Slovakia is a small country in Central-Eastern Europe and can serve as a good example of an open and export-based economy, subjected to the global crisis. Thus, in the context of the 2007–2008 economic crisis, the RCI in the 79 Slovak districts is examined with respect to their vulnerability in the first period of rising unemployment (2008–2012), as well as in the second period following vulnerability to the economic shock (2012–2014). A clear West-East divide in the resilience capacity can be seen. The more urban and export-oriented districts with high RCI values are shown to be exposed to high vulnerability compared with the rural districts. On the other hand, the small, peripheral districts respond to a lesser extent, or with a delay, to the shock.