Natural Gas Consumption Growth Research Articles

Research on the monthly fluctuation of natural gas demand in China

AbstractWith the rapid growth of natural gas consumption in China, the monthly peak shaving and security issues of the gas supply have become increasingly prominent. In view of this situation, the monthly fluctuation law of natural gas consumption in China must be studied to guide gas storage peak shaving and gas supply planning. In this study, the concepts of the gas year (statistical method of breaking through the calendar year to gas year and reflecting the complete gas consumption cycle), typical year (the year that had the representative load curve of China), and some fluctuation characteristics parameters were applied to study the monthly fluctuation law of natural gas consumption in China. Furthermore, according to the monthly statistical data of China, including natural gas demand, power generation, crude steel output, refined copper output, the monthly average temperature in the typical city, the relationship between influencing factors and natural gas demand was analyzed by the gray relative correlation method. Based on the stepwise regression Cobb–Douglas (C–D) production function, the natural gas demand of China in the gas year of 2030/31 was predicted. The research results can be used for energy planning, statistics, peak shaving of gas storage, liquefied natural gas trade, and can also be used as a reference for energy big data analysis and refined management.

Bottlenecks of LNG supply chain in energy transition: A case study of China using system dynamics simulation

Natural gas plays a strategic role in energy transition. For instance, the Chinese government regards coal-to-gas transition as a medium-term emission mitigation option, resulting in growths in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping import volumes. However, LNG terminal receiving capacity and domestic tanker fleet capacity insufficiencies become bottlenecks impacting LNG supply efficiency and security. This study analyses to which extent LNG shipping import growth accelerates under natural gas consumption growth, domestic production reduction and pipeline import reduction scenarios, then evaluates LNG terminal capacities and tanker fleet capacities needed to accommodate the respective LNG import volumes. An innovative System Dynamics model is developed based on historical data, policies and market information using China as a case. It found that consumption growths or alternative supply reductions by over 5% beyond the baseline simulation will cause LNG terminal overloads. Even in the baseline scenario without any unexpected supply or demand change, China's domestically owned LNG tankers only meet 49% of its LNG shipping import demand. Hence, the government is recommended to coordinate national energy strategies and sector-level planning. Terminal operators need to accelerate capacity expansions. Domestic shipping companies can invest in large-sized tankers to reduce LNG tankers deployed and relieve the dependency on foreign fleets.

Urban natural gas demand and factors analysis in China: Perspectives of price and income elasticities

Urban natural gas is becoming the main sector driving China's natural gas consumption growth in recent years. This study explores the impacts of urban natural gas price, wage, socioeconomic determinants, and meteorological conditions on urban natural gas demand in China over 2006–2017. Furthermore, this study also analyzes the potential regional heterogeneity and asymmetry in the impacts of gas price and income on China's urban gas demand. Empirical results reveal that: (1) The increased gas price can significantly reduce the urban gas demand, and the average income level may effectively promote the gas demand, also, a strong switching effect exists between electricity and natural gas in urban China; (2) these impacts are heterogeneous in regions among China, urban natural gas demand is largely affected by the gas price in regions with high-gas-price and by income in regions with low-gas-price; and (3) the impact of gas price on urban gas consumption is consistent in regions with different urban natural gas consumption, while the impact of income is asymmetric. This study further provides several policy implications for improving the urban natural gas industry in China.

Analysis of Natural Gas Consumption Interdependence for Polish Industrial Consumers on the Basis of an Econometric Model

The transmission of natural gas is a key element of the Polish energy system. The published data of the Polish distribution system operators and the transmission system operator on the volume of gaseous fuel transmitted indicate a growing trend in the consumption of energy produced from natural gas. In connection with the energy transformation, switching energy generation sources from hard coal to natural gas in Poland, it is important for transmission operators to know the future demand for gaseous fuel. The aim of the article is to attempt to develop an econometric model related to the consumption of gaseous fuel by Polish entrepreneurs. The knowledge therein may be useful for making business decisions related to the possible expansion of the transmission system, and thus investing financial resources for this purpose. This knowledge will also provide quantitative information related to the interest in gaseous fuel among industrial consumers and the analysis of the trend of natural gas consumption in Poland in the aspect of energy transition. The intention of the publication was to determine the macroeconomic indicators that strongly affect natural gas consumption by the Polish industry and the quantitative growth of consumption depending on changes in these indicators. The results showed that the highest correlation of the growth of natural gas consumption is related to the production of chemistry, the chemical industry, and the power industry.

Optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China under increasing and fluctuating demand: A quantitative analysis

Reducing carbon emissions in China is critical to global low-carbon transition. Switching coal to natural gas in end-use sectors is a key mitigation strategy in China, whilst insufficient natural gas reserve capacity hinders the growth of natural gas consumption. Besides strategic reserves, peak-shaving reserves are vital to tackle seasonal demand fluctuation. Identifying an appropriate scale of natural gas reserves can significantly reduce costs, whilst current studies focus on strategic reserves. In this paper, a multi-scale method is proposed to quantify the optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China, which combines three sub-models with matched temporal-spatial resolutions tackling daily, monthly peak-shaving reserves and strategic reserves respectively. Results show that the optimal scale of natural gas reserves is 14.2 percent of annual demand, higher than the level of 5.2 percent in 2017, and lower than policy targets of 15.6 percent. Results reflect the serious shortage of reserve capacity and the need of fast expansion, whilst pointing out that a small reduction in policy targets can support natural gas growth at lower costs. The optimal scale of daily, monthly peak-shaving reserves and strategic reserves is pointed out, which is 0.6, 8 and 5.6 percent of annual demand respectively.

Analysis of Driving Factors of Natural Gas Consumption in China: Based on Regional Integration and LMDI Method

In recent years, China has developed rapidly in terms of natural gas. Driven by regional economic integration, a regional natural gas market composed of neighboring provinces and cities has taken shape gradually, and it tends to grow toward the same direction in policy formulation, resource coordination, facility construction and market expansion. Based on the factors such as geographical location, economic conditions and natural gas consumption, this thesis tends to conduct a horizontal comparative analysis on the economic development conditions, natural gas consumption characteristics and natural gas pipeline network density of the three regions with obvious regional integration feature in China. Then according to LMDI, four core indicators, namely economic growth effect, energy intensity effect, energy structure effect, and substitution effect are selected. The thesis is expected to explore the contribution of different indicators to the growth of natural gas consumption in these three different regions. According to the results, it can be concluded that the driving factors of natural gas consumption differ greatly among regions. Specifically speaking, the more developed the economy is, the greater the contribution of the energy substitution effect to natural gas consumption will be, and the contribution of the economic growth effect to natural gas consumption will be smaller. Despite that the contribution of energy intensity in different regions shows slight difference, the energy structure contributes the least effect, which further explains the current differences in China’s natural gas consumption characteristics and the reasons behind.

Substitution Effect of Natural Gas and the Energy Consumption Structure Transition in China

A crucial problem which China faces is how to improve its energy consumption structure. In this paper, a system dynamic model of energy substitution based on energy capital and putty-clay theory is adopted, in order to explore the substitution effect of natural gas on the energy consumption structure transition in China. The results demonstrate that the huge capital stocks of coal and oil capacities effectively delay the progress of natural gas substitution for optimizing the energy structure, resulting in a limited effect of natural gas substitution in the short term and a large cumulative effect in the long term. Further scenario analyses indicate that natural gas subsidies and carbon price policies have positive effects on the growth of natural gas consumption and the optimization of the energy structure. We also found that a higher pressure of safety supply may emerge to meet the demand for energy consumption in the energy transition. Recommendations are given for improving the energy consumption structure in China from three aspects: allocating capital investment to natural gas, reducing the transition cost between natural gas and other energy sources, and awareness of the systemic risks in energy consumption.

ENERGY EFFICIENT NATURAL GAS LIQUEFACTION TECHNOLOGIES IN LOW-TONNAGE PLANTS: UKRAINE’S PROSPECTS

Along with the growth of natural gas consumption in the world, small-scale production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is developing at a faster pace. It opens up the possibility of LNG obtaining and transporting as a commodity product at remote from gas networks fields or wells, and also at low-production wells and alternative sources of methane-containing gas. The development of modern technologies for natural gas liquefaction has been studied and the liquefaction cycles used in the low-tonnage scale have been classified. In Ukraine, rather large reserves of natural gas are found in small as well as depleted fields, so the problem of energy efficient technologies for liquefaction and transportation of their hydrocarbon resources creating is of particular relevance. For the development of such low-resource fields, liquefaction units operating on the compression-throttle cycle are most suitable. Energy efficient technological schemes of natural gas liquefaction plants have been developed: in the high-pressure throttle-ejector cycle with pre-cooling using a propane refrigerating machine and in the middle-pressure throttle cycle with ethane refrigeration cycle and the recovery of part of the liquefied gas. Optimum parameters of the refrigeration cycle and the whole plant are obtained from the point of view of minimizing the specific energy costs. The advantages of the proposed throttle schemes are simplicity, reliability, that are results from the use of standard compressor and refrigeration equipment, and energy efficiency of 0.5 kWh/kg LNG, which is sufficiently high for low-tonnage LNG production. Ref. 20, Fig. 6, Tab.1.

Interval optimization based coordination scheduling of gas–electricity coupled system considering wind power uncertainty, dynamic process of natural gas flow and demand response management

With the remarkable growth of natural gas consumption and the development of renewable energy worldwide in recent years, the penetration capacity of gas-fired generators and uncertain renewable energy has significantly become larger, which poses a great challenge to the reliable and economic operation of the gas–electricity interconnected system. This paper proposes an interval optimization based coordination scheduling model for the gas–electricity coupled system considering the dynamic characteristics of natural gas flow, wind power integration and demand response management. By introducing the arithmetic and order relation of interval numbers, the objective function and corresponding constraints for the interval-based dispatch model can be converted into the deterministic expressions with degrees of pessimism, then the proposed model can be solved in the master-subproblem framework. On this basis, two case studies are implemented on the 6-bus power system integrated with 6-node natural gas system and the modified IEEE 118-bus system with 10-node natural gas system to investigate the impact of gas flow dynamic process, demand response management, wind power uncertainty on the scheduling solution of the coupled systems. Moreover, the scenario-based stochastic optimization and robust optimization methods are carried out for comparison. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed interval optimization method.

Development of the Arctic gas industry and prospects for the Russian LNG market in the Asia-Pacific region

The article is devoted to the study of the development of the Arctic gas industry and the prospects of LNG sales in the market of the Asia-Pacific region. It is shown that the largest projects for the production of liquefied natural gas in Russia are concentrated in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous district - “Yamal LNG” and “Arctic LNG - 2”. The growth of economies, partial abandonment of nuclear energy and coal contributes to the growth of natural gas consumption in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Japan, China and South Korea remain the largest LNG importers. The analysis showed that South Korea and Japan, despite all efforts to reduce energy consumption, are interested in increasing the volume of purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas. To meet their needs, Japanese companies “Jogmeg” and “Mitsui” purchased a 10% stake in the “Arctic LNG - 2” project for $ 25 billion. China, having concluded a trade agreement with the United States, will try to meet the growing demand for oil and gas through the supply of American energy resources. However, given the decline in the number of operating rigs in the United States, it is not certain that China will not need additional supplies from other exporters.

Forecasting natural gas consumption in China by Bayesian Model Averaging

Abstract With rapid growth of natural gas consumption in China, it is in urgent need of more accurate and reliable models to make a reasonable forecast. Considering the limitations of the single model and the model uncertainty, this paper presents a combinative method to forecast natural gas consumption by Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). It can effectively handle the uncertainty associated with model structure and parameters, and thus improves the forecasting accuracy. This paper chooses six variables for forecasting the natural gas consumption, including GDP, urban population, energy consumption structure, industrial structure, energy efficiency and exports of goods and services. The results show that comparing to Gray prediction model, Linear regression model and Artificial neural networks, the BMA method provides a flexible tool to forecast natural gas consumption that will have a rapid growth in the future. This study can provide insightful information on natural gas consumption in the future.

Russia and the European Union: An Outlook for Collaboration and Competition in European Natural Gas Markets

Abstract: In the aftermath of recent natural gas and oil supply disruptions to European markets, Russia's long-term supply stability and Europe's natural gas market developments are of utmost concern to both the producer and the consumer. As Europe's indigenous supply declines, it will rely more on gas imports. Concurrently, Russia's domestic gas consumption is growing, its infrastructure continues to age, and Gazprom will continue to rely on both Central Asian imports and growth from independent gas producers to meet its long-term supply commitments. This article discusses a medium-term outlook for Russia and the European Union and outlines the barriers that are inhibiting competition and collaboration in the energy sphere. Keywords: competition, energy markets, energy security, European Union, natural gas, oil, Russia ********** In the past year, the security of natural gas supplies has emerged as one of the top issues of concern for countries in Europe, for the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and even for the United States. Concerns about natural gas security reflect uncertainty about available natural gas supplies, how supplies are delivered to the market (by pipeline or by liquefied natural gas tanker), and how much is paid for these supplies. In the aftermath of natural gas and oil supply shutoffs from Russia, Europe is trying to ensure its own security of supply through diversification and energy efficiency. Russia is trying to ensure energy security by diversifying its customer base, investing in the entire value chain (not only the upstream), and ensuring adequate investment levels both in its own energy supplies and those of its Central Asian neighbors. The way in which the policies of regional and international organizations differ from the policies of individual states is hampering progress on energy market liberalization and energy efficiency programs, both of which are necessary to achieve stable market relationships between producers and consumers. To accurately frame the policy debate, one must understand the current and future role that natural gas plays for Europe's energy mix. Europe's demand for natural gas is increasing and Russia is the region's main supplier. However, Russia's ability to invest in upstream natural gas development over the next several years will directly contribute to Russia's natural gas production growth and Europe's security of supply. In the meantime, several alternative energy sources and hedging instruments are expected to mitigate Europe's dependency. For the region to best take advantage of these options, continued regional natural gas market liberalization is necessary. Europe and Russia's Natural Gas Interdependence In 2006, Europe depended on Russia for 34 percent of its natural gas imports, including European LNG imports (see figure 1). In contrast, Russia depended on Europe for 60 percent of its natural gas exports, sending the remainder via pipeline to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), predominantly Ukraine and Belarus. (1) In evaluating Europe's true dependency on Russian natural gas imports, it is essential to understand the role that it plays in the total energy mix. In the decade after the mid-1990s, oil's share in Europe's primary energy consumption fell by around 3 percentage points while natural gas's share increased by twice this amount, to around 24 percent of final consumption. On the one hand, Europe's natural gas consumption growth could slow in the future. Since the mid-1990s, EU demand for natural gas has been growing at a rate of around 4 percent per year. (2) The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that, over the next several years, the EU's demand for natural gas will grow at a slightly lower rate, by around 0.8 to 1 percent per year between 2004 and 2015. (3) Even though the growth rate is expected to slow in the next several years, as figure 2 shows, Europe's natural gas import dependency is still more than 30 percent higher today than it was only a decade ago. …