Growth In Colombia Research Articles

Regional Economic Growth in Colombia: the role of Fiscal corruption and the Armed conflict

This research explores the impact of armed violence and corruption on the economic growth of Colombia’s departments from 1991 to 2017. Using models of spatial panels, statics and dynamics, we detect positive space-time indirect effects on departmental growth, including evidence of beta-convergence. Specifically, fiscal corruption exhibited a significant negative impact on short-term economic growth. Moreover, corruption primarily affected growth at the local level, with limited spillover effects observed from neighboring regions. Interestingly, our analysis did not yield statistically significant evidence regarding the impact of armed violence on economic growth.

Pathways to a net zero building sector in Colombia: Insights from a circular economy perspective

The rapid urbanization and economic growth in Colombia have made the residential sector one of the largest energy and material consumers in the country. Circular economy (CE) strategies are a promising alternative to decouple the sector from resource depletion and climate change. The analysis shown here is based on the RECC model framework, a dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) model. Our results suggest that by 2050 without CE strategies, residential building stock will reach 2.5 billion m2 and emit between 13 and 25 Mt CO2/yr, depending on whether carbon forest sequestration is included or not. A complete implementation of CE strategies and lower floor space can reduce 2020–2050 cumulative primary material production, waste generation, and GHG emissions by 48, 5, and 49 %, respectively. There is a potential to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 if, in addition to the measures mentioned above, more wood materials and forest sequestration are considered.

High frequency monitoring of credit creation: A new tool for central banks in emerging market economies

This study utilizes weekly datasets on loan growth in Colombia to develop a daily indicator of credit expansion using a two-step machine learning approach. Initially, employing Random Forests (RF), missing data in the raw credit indicator is filled using high frequency indicators like spreads, interest rates, and stock market returns. Subsequently, Quantile Random Forest identifies periods of excessive credit creation, particularly focusing on growth quantiles above 95 %, indicative of potential financial instability. Unlike previous studies, this research combines machine learning with mixed frequency analysis to create a versatile early warning instrument for identifying instances of excessive credit growth in emerging market economies. This methodology, with its ability to handle nonlinear relationships and accommodate diverse scenarios, offers significant value to central bankers and macroprudential authorities in safeguarding financial stability.

Estimating the incidence of Venezuelan migration and other socioeconomic factors on urban growth in Colombia.

This study investigates the intricate relationship between Venezuelan migration and urban growth in Colombia from 2018 to 2021. The study employs remote sensing data and social network metrics to uncover migration patterns and their impact on urban expansion. The methodology consists of three stages. Firstly, nighttime satellite imagery is used to analyze year-over-year urban growth in Colombia. Secondly, social network data estimates Venezuelan migration, overcoming challenges of underreporting and informal border crossings. Lastly, an econometric analysis explores the quantitative link between Venezuelan migration and urban growth, integrating socioeconomic variables to address endogeneity. The findings reveal the complex interplay of Venezuelan migration, socioeconomic factors, and urban growth. The study outlines remote sensing analysis, introducing the Anthropogenic Footprint Expansion Index (AFEI) to quantify urban growth. Facebook API data estimates migration trends and explores socioeconomic impacts on urban expansion. The analysis uncovers migration, poverty, aging, and urban population proportion as key factors affecting Colombia's urban landscape. Furthermore, the research underscores how Venezuelan migration affected short-term urban expansion pre- and post-COVID-19. Migration had a notable effect before the pandemic, but this influence waned afterward. The study highlights migration's short-term nature and emphasizes age demographics' role in medium-term dynamics.

A Vision of Innovation and Entrepreneurship as an engine of Economic Growth in Colombia

Tomando en consideración los retos y desafíos planteados por el entorno competitivo actual, se hace necesario analizar de forma reflexiva cómo se puede estimular el crecimiento económico, es así que se analiza el proceso de desarrollo de la innovación y emprendimiento en Colombia, y se parte de la revisión de artículos y estudios, relacionados al concepto innovación y su relación con el emprendimiento. Para la consecución de este trabajo se utilizó una metodología con enfoque cualitativo con alcance descriptivo, logrando así analizar las diferentes perspectivas más relevantes y pertinentes para desarrollar la contextualización, importancia y limitaciones del proceso de innovación en Colombia. Dando como resultado principal un resumen respecto al impulso de la capacidad de innovación y su representación en el aspecto económico y formativo del país; lo anterior articulado con el análisis del rol del estado en este proceso. Finalmente, se presentan algunas limitaciones y problemáticas asociadas a la innovación en Latinoamérica y Colombia.

Regional business cycles and manufacturing productivity: empirical evidence in Colombia

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to disentangle the contemporaneous and non-contemporaneous relationship between regional business cycles and manufacturing productivity in a developing country, namely Colombia.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology is quantitative. To deal with the problems of endogeneity in the production function and with the law motion of productivity (the Markov process), the authors obtain Total Factor Productivity (TFP) through the Wooldridge’s two equations system that can be jointly estimated under the generalized method of moments framework (GMM). Secondly, to avoid bias we estimate regional business cycles through the Kalman filter. Subsequently, we implement an instrumental variables/generalized method of moments regression (IV/GMM) to capture the contemporaneous and endogenous TFP–GDP cycles’ linkage at the regional level. Lastly, to deal with the non-contemporaneous link, the authors estimate a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) for each region. We also present the corresponding impulse–response functions.FindingsThe authors’ general results suggest a remarkable causality, both contemporary and non-contemporary, from productivity to GDP (but not vice versa) in the most developed regions of the country. This implied productivity could influence in the economic growth of regions in short and long runs. These results are different than those expected by economic theory and should be considered by local economic policy makers.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors consider that a more detailed analysis should be carried out at the level of each sector within the manufacturing industry to further clarify these findings.Practical implicationsThe policy should be oriented to obtaining cutting-edge technologies through subsidies, and also should facilitate the access to financial capital and the investment in R&D laboratories. On the other hand, the link with international trade also must be reinforced because the importing of intermediate inputs and exporting of output allow the firms to obtain embodied technologies, also to incur on learning by exporting and importing processes and finally to gain experience and competitiveness in foreign markets.Social implicationsThe causality in the region that provides more than 50% of economic activity within the country (Third region) is only in one directional, from TFP towards gross domestic product (GDP) and not vice versa. As the influence from GDP towards TFP is minimal in the remaining regions, the manufacturing productivity influences both short and long run regional economic growth in Colombia. This implies that economic policy at the level of macro-region must be modified; the government should give additional support to the manufacturing sector, especially in developed regions and for the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (wich represent 92% of manufacturing firms) to increase economic growth in the future.Originality/valueThe authors’ contribution is threefold. First, they pay special attention to the contemporaneous cyclical relationship (i.e. pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical or acyclic) and the non-contemporaneous causality with productivity. Second, they estimate productivity with the GMM two equation system considering an endogenous Markov process. Third, to the best of their knowledge, at least in the case of Latin America, there are no studies in this direction combining these statistic methods, including that of Colombia.

Environmental Impacts of Coal Nanoparticles from Rehabilitated Mine Areas in Colombia

With the possible increase in mining activities and recently projected population growth in Colombia, large quantities of nanoparticles (NPs) and potentially hazardous elements (PHEs) will be of major concern to mine workers, indigenous residents, and surrounding communities. This study highlights the need to regulate the pollution from Colombian mining activities that comply with regional regulations and global strategies. Colombian coal rejects (CRs) from the Cesar Basin, Colombia, were studied primarily by advanced electron microscopic and analytical procedures. Therefore, the goal of this research is to evaluate the role of NPs in the alteration of CRs’ structure in a renewed zone at Cerrejón coal area (La Guajira, Colombia) through advanced electron microscopic (AEMs) methods. The objective of the analysis is to evaluate the incidence mode of nanoparticles, which contain potentially hazardous elements. The bulk crystallography (X-ray diffraction), chemical structure, and morphologies of NPs were studied by high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM), field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), micro-beam diffraction (MBD), selected area electron diffraction (SAED), and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) procedures. The AEMs provided comprehensive insights into the geochemical evolution of CRs. Consequently, the AEMs can be used as essential tools for CR management in coal mining areas. The regular dimension of detected NPs was found to be above 2 nm. Ultrafine particles of quartz were identified by the advanced electron microscopy. Furthermore, the findings also revealed aluminium, calcium, potassium, titanium, iron oxides, and PHEs in the CRs. The extensive water practice in the coal extraction process combined with atmospheric oxygen supports oxidations of iron sulphide, thus releasing PHEs to the surrounding environment. Dehydration of sulphate salts fluctuate at consistent humidity in the coal mine environments. The study demonstrates the great influence of coal mining activities on the environment and human health.

The Costs of Bureaucracy and Corruption at Customs: Evidence from the Computerization of Imports in Colombia

Customs face a difficult tradeoff between, on one side, collecting tariff revenues and preventing smuggling, and on the other side, avoiding creating additional barriers to trade. They also tend to concentrate discretionary power in the hands of officials whose decisions can bear high costs for the firms, creating room for rent extraction. In this context, information technologies can limit direct interactions, reduce transaction costs and allow local businesses to better take of the benefits of international trade. We assess the effects of the computerization of import transactions on plants’ growth in Colombia. The reform occurred sequentially in the different customs between 2000 and 2005, allowing us to use a triple-difference strategy, comparing the change in outcome variables of plants that were importing before the beginning of the reform, to the one of firms that were not importing (less likely to be affected by changes at customs). We find that the computerization of imports led to an increase of 6 log points in the firms’ value added along with consequent increases in employment, productivity and tax collection. However, it generated winners (importing firms) and losers (non-importing firms). Our investigation of the channels reveals a reduction in corruption judiciary cases at treated customs, as well as a reduction of time to clear customs and its unpredictability. Our results support growing evidence of the high potential of proper use of information technologies to improve efficiency and tackle corruption in public administration with important consequences for the economy.

Kolombiya'da Çarkıfelek Meyvesi (Passiflora edulis) Yiyecek İşletmesinin Kâr-Optimizasyonu İçin Kısıtlamalar ve Çözümler

Passion fruit is grown in several countries in Latin America including Colombia. But the profit with this is very unstable and normally their production costs have not been optimized, additionally, their offer to the international market is mainly fresh product and only seven percent is processed fruit, creating economic constraints and again reducing their possibilities to profit. Development and improvement of fruit production represent an opportunity for supporting the economic growth in Colombia because of their favorable conditions regarding climate and fruit diversity. This could result in job creation and equity in the development in the different regions across the country. This review illustrates the constraints within the food business development of the Passion fruit which are discussed under the subheadings of pests and diseases, sub optimal genetical utilization of passion fruit, un-rational usage of pesticides and fertilizers, soil quality poor handling resulting in the harvest contamination of the harvest, Post-harvest disease, insufficient grading, packaging, storage and transportation and recommendations.

Cenaprov y el crecimiento urbano de Pereira 1973-1987. Una mirada a la construcción barrial de Pereira desde sus márgenes

El crecimiento exponencial de la población en Colombia y el éxodo masivo de personas del campo a la ciudad a mediados del siglo XX a causa principalmente del fenómeno de la violencia, derivó en carencias habitacionales y en la conformación de invasiones en las ciudades. En ese contexto, la organización social de izquierda Central Nacional Provivienda (CENAPROV), promovió la construcción de diez planes de vivienda en la ciudad de Pereira. La presente investigación es un intento por reconstruir el accionar de CENAPROV desde su aparición en la ciudad en 1973 hasta el inicio de su declive en el año de 1987. Así, de la mano de la Metodología de Reconstrucción Colectiva de la Historia RCH y del análisis crítico de fuentes, se aporta a la comprensión de la historia urbana de Pereira desde sus márgenes. 
 
 The exponential growth of the population in Colombia and the massive exodus of people from the countryside to the city in the mid-twentieth century mainly due to the phenomenon of violence, led to housing shortages and the formation of slums in the cities. In this context, the left social organization Central Nacional Provivienda (CENAPROV), promoted the construction of ten housing plans in Pereira city. The present investigation is an attempt to reconstruct the CENAPROV actions since its appearance in the city in 1973 until the beginning of its decline in 1987. Thus, together with the Methodology of Collective Reconstruction of the History RCH and the critical analysis of sources, contributes to the understanding of the urban history of Pereira from its margins.

Crecimiento industrial Colombiano restringido por balanza de pagos, 1975-2015.

En esta investigación se analiza el papel de las exportaciones e importaciones industriales en el crecimiento del sector, bajo un enfoque de crecimiento restringido por balanza de pagos, en el periodo 1975-2015. Los resultados empíricos, obtenidos a través de la técnica de corrección de errores, muestran que mientras las elasticidades ingreso de la demanda de exportaciones e importaciones industriales generan un déficit comercial, los precios tienden a contrarrestarlo; sin embargo, la balanza comercial industrial es deficitaria durante todo el periodo de análisis. Los resultados también evidencian que el sector externo industrial explica un porcentaje alto del total de las exportaciones e importaciones nacionales, aspecto paradójico y preocupante para el crecimiento agregado del país, si se considera que la participación del sector industrial en el desarrollo de la economía colombiana es cada vez menor. Se concluye que el crecimiento industrial colombiano es explicado por las elasticidades ingreso de la demanda de las exportaciones e importaciones y por los precios (tipo de cambio real), que el crecimiento potencial del sector es mayor al observado y que el efecto del sector industrial sobre el crecimiento del país es muy bajo.

Evaluating the impact of macroprudential policies on credit growth in Colombia

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of two macroprudential policies in Colombia: marginal reserve requirements and dynamic provisions. The first measure was implemented to control excessive credit growth, while the latter was designed to increase systemic resilience by establishing a countercyclical buffer through loan loss provision requirements. To perform this analysis, a rich dataset based on loan-by-loan information for Colombian banks during the 2006–2009 period is used. Our identification strategy closely follows Khwaja & Mian (2008), so that only those observations with multiple banking relations are considered. Estimations are performed applying firm and firm-time fixed effects to control for demand factors, thus appropriately isolating loan demand from credit supply. Results from the econometric model suggest that dynamic provisions, the countercyclical reserve requirement and an aggregate measure of the macroprudential policy stance had a negative effect on credit growth, which varies according to bank and debtor-specific characteristics. Particularly, effects are intensified for riskier debtors, suggesting that the aggregate macroprudential policy stance in Colombia has worked effectively to stabilize credit cycles and reduce risk-taking.

Job Creation in Colombia vs the U.S.: 'Up or out Dynamics' Meets 'The Life Cycle of Plants'

Following the seminal work of Hsieh and Klenow (2014), there is growing consensus that a key difference between the U.S. and developing economies is that the latter exhibit slower employment growth over the life cycle of the average productive establishment. At the same time, the distribution of startup employment growth in the U.S. is highly skewed, with extraordinary growth establishments driving average employment growth, giving rise to the up or out dynamics label (Haltiwanger, Jarmin and Miranda, 2013). We look at the entire population of non-micro manufacturing establishments in Colombia vs. the US and find that slower average life cycle growth in Colombia is driven by a less enthusiastic contribution of extraordinary growth plants and less dynamic selection of young underperforming plants. As a consequence, the size distribution of non-micro plants exhibits more concentration in small-old plants in Colombia, both in unweighted and employment-weighted bases. These findings point to a shortage of high-growth entrepreneurship and a relatively high likelihood of long-run survival for small, likely unproductive plants, as two key elements at the heart of the development problem. An extreme concentration of resources in micro plants is the other distinguishing feature of the Colombian manufacturing sector vis a vis the US'.

The Costs of Bureaucracy and Corruption at Customs: Evidence from the Computerization of Imports in Colombia

Customs face a difficult tradeoff between, on one side, collecting tariff revenues and preventing smuggling, and on the other side, avoiding creating additional barriers to trade. They also tend to concentrate discretionary power in the hands of officials whose decisions can bear high costs for the firms, creating room for rent extraction. In this context, information technologies can limit direct interactions, reduce transaction costs and allow local businesses to better take of the benefits of international trade. We assess the effects of the computerization of import transactions on plants’ growth in Colombia. The reform occurred sequentially in the different customs between 2000 and 2005, allowing us to use a triple-difference strategy, comparing the change in outcome variables of plants that were importing before the beginning of the reform, to the one of firms that were not importing (less likely to be affected by changes at customs). We find that the computerization of imports led to an increase of 6 log points in the firms’ value added along with consequent increases in employment, productivity and tax collection. However, it generated winners (importing firms) and losers (non-importing firms). Our investigation of the channels reveals a reduction in corruption judiciary cases at treated customs, as well as a reduction of time to clear customs and its unpredictability. Our results support growing evidence of the high potential of proper use of information technologies to improve efficiency and tackle corruption in public administration with important consequences for the economy.

EVOLUCIÓN Y TENDENCIAS DE LA FORMACIÓN A DISTANCIA Y VIRTUAL

El documento pretende hacer una aproximación a la evolución que ha tenido el proceso educativo, desde la formación a distancia a la virtual en las instituciones educativas y cuáles son las tendencias que sigue hoy esta modalidad de educación. Se establece la relación entre tecnología y educación virtual, como aspectos que se encuentran altamente relacionados. Además se aborda el tema del presente y el futuro de la educación virtual como elemento con el que se pretende reducir la desigualdad, la exclusión social y el analfabetismo, así como el papel de las universidades en la educación virtual, que en Colombia, ha evidenciado un crecimiento desde el año 2011 de forma exponencial. Se busca dar respuesta a la pregunta problema ¿Es la educación virtual, una opción para reducir la brecha de la desigualdad en la educación?. El objetivo es hacer una aproximación a la evolución que ha tenido la formación desde la modalidad a distancia a la virtual en las instituciones educativas y las tendencias que sigue hoy esta modalidad de educación.

The impacts of financial development on economic growth in Colombia and Chile, 1982-2014

This article analyzes the validity and relevance of the variables proposed by King and Levine (1993) in the specific case of Colombia and Chile; for this effect, it uses a panel data model as a strategy to find possible significant impacts of the financial variables on growth in both countries, not only considering their behavior over time, but also the existence of heterogeneities among them. The results partially show how some of the variables have distinguishable impacts on economic performance and growth.

Biodiversity and growth in Colombia, 1995–2015: an approach from the environmental kuznets hypothesis

ABSTRACTThe literature that studied the ratio between economy and environment has been concerned with contrasting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis (EKC). Traditionally, environmental degradation has been measured through some ‘proxy’ of air pollution (CO2, for example). This paper contrasts the EKC hypothesis validity for Colombia, in the period 1995–2015; but, unlike traditional studies, biodiversity was taken as an environmental damage variable, which is calculated from the endangered species total number. The per capita income, the GINI coefficient, the environmental performance index of Yale University (EPI) and the literacy rate were included as explanatory variables. The results show that the EKC hypothesis is not met for Colombia in the estimated period. It is possible to conclude that the relationship between the environment and economic growth is context depend.

Analysis of the main drivers of CO2 emissions changes in Colombia (1990–2012) and its political implications

In this study, an Index Decomposition Analysis-Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (IDA-LMDI) model was developed to find the drivers behind the changes in CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2012 in Colombia. The results facilitate the assessment of the impact in Colombia of the main measures regarding the mitigation of CO2 emissions. Likewise, it allows us to analyze whether the recent measures implemented by the Colombian authorities to mitigate emissions are moving in the right direction. To carry out the decomposition analysis, six effects were taken into consideration: carbonization, the substitution of fossil fuels, the penetration of renewable energy, energy intensity, wealth and population. The effects of income and population appear as drivers of emissions for the period analyzed. A stylized analysis allows richer conclusions to be extracted regarding a battery of recommendations for emission mitigation policies that are compatible with economic growth in Colombia.

Un análisis smithiano del crecimiento económico colombiano: avances metodológicos

Economic theory posits that economic growth is enhanced by factor accumulation, public good provision, and respect for property rights. Without disregarding this consensus, this paper rescues the Smithian hypothesis that diversification of production and the expansion of the population purchasing power are also integrated and fundamental engines of economic growth. In fact, the available data do not allow rejecting the hypotheses that the combined accumulation of physical and human capital, the diversification of technology-intensive productive activities, and the expansion of the urban population purchasing power are the main sources of economic growth in Colombia. The analysis also allows identifying three important plummets of domestic economic development: the insufficient development of transport infrastructure, high levels of violence, and the inadequacy, inefficiency and/or scarcity of governmental and financial services.

Potential Growth in Colombia

This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.